Right, morning all. Xbox-sized post time.
Demotivator attacks me for WIFOM where
my whole point is that we don't know. I'm not saying the busdriver is town, or even probably town; I'm saying that we shouldn't dismiss the possibility that he's town. When we're at the stage of people trying to clear half the game based on rolestuff (as Astley is doing), it's vital not to let our assumptions go unchallenged, and I haven't seen anyone post actual grounds. Claimed role is ludicrous but that doesn't make it false; still, claiming JoAT when it's never going to be tested isn't great. Bottom line is that his truthful-unless-touhou-scum claim is the main thing keeping him off my hitlist. Correction: 2g1c puts him in the clear; for demotivate to be scum he would either have to be lucky, or both Touhou and the girls be scum too. Guessing someone who's said their role is useless won't be targeting anyone... there are bigger risks, but it would still be a huge gamble. Side note: I'd think it's better for 2g1c and especially Cake to target random people than none at all (we all know to refuse any trinkets in the night, right?), just because that would put more information out there for the town to use in verifying claims; I'm open to being convinced otherwise on this point though.
(Waffle: the
right thing for demotivate to do was make 2g1c claim first, so that we had Touhou -> Demotivate -> 2g1c and could add to both ends; instead we've got 2g1c/Touhou -> Demotivate, where the arrows indicate who clears who. But too late for that now)
@XBox 360: The reason I said that it does not follow is that: Cake targeted Breaker, and Dog got hit. Thus we are assuming a swap of Breaker and Dog. Actually, the part that doesn't follow is the earlier bit. A Dog/Breaker swap makes sense as Dog was likely to get NK'd due to playing extremely pro-Townie, and hitting Breaker with scum's own NK would have been remarkably fitting. However, the earlier logic doesn't hold: if Breaker was going to block Cake, then swapping him with Dog would still have his action...being aimed at Cake, and thus doing nothing.
Not doing nothing. Roleblocking the cake, meaning there's less reason for a townie busdriver to worry about Cake's NK hitting dog. The soviets argued that a townie busdriver was impossible because he would cause dog's death in the same way it happened - but I think assuming cake would be roleblocked makes perfect sense at that stage. And basically agreed with you on rolespeculation in rolemadness; my point is that if we're using "there are only two scum, one of whom is the busdriver and the other was the killer, so anyone who didn't target anyone last night is town" as grounds to clear people, we'd better be damn sure all those things are true.
XBox haphazardly jumps off the Soviet train and onto Combo
I did not jump onto Combo; I called him on a couple of very obvious things wrong with his post, which I would do for anyone. I was not seriously pressing him by any means. AyB's claim that I was being tsundere on him is entirely false; I was pure dere, simply not seeing the case against him until the Millhouse thing.
Almost certainly getting out of order in my responses now, but 2g1c: what I wanted to hear was not the air/hijack comment, but why I must be the killer if scum. I read your post as saying you'd give a full theory later, and you seemed to think the same was true for some other people.
I want to trust Touhou, but I still can't. I'm starting to think we learn more from them dead than alive, which is a terrible route to go down. They've got to keep producing results, which I think keeps them off today's lynch possibilities, but I'd be considering drastic measures if tomorrow's result still hasn't told us anything. Not sure at what stage it becomes worth wasting a night on testing. How far are we from LYLO anyway? (Answer: the day after tomorrow, if I'm counting right.) Following this reasoning, Bel-Air can wait until after we know Touhou's alignment for sure; it's not worth risking the game's final result to try and win quicker.
So. Touhou and Bel-Air postponed. Demote outright cleared, Cake pretty much confirmed town; 2g1c
tentatively cleared, under the assumption the busdriver is scum (which I do believe, but think needs a little more thought). Yours truly town, not that you can take my word for it. Leaves Shiki, Rick, and AyB.
Shiki I've said all along looks townie, but is flying a bit low; I had no problem with this on D2 assuming it was going to pick up, but consistently low content is starting to bite. Last posts focusing too much on Touhou; throwing one theme name in could be bastardmoddery and rolename argument is generally so meta it hurts. Tracker is ordinary, yes, but not too ordinary for this game (my own current role, if nothing else, proves that).
Rick has been giving reason and insight. Posting fairly similar to me, as I think others have noticed, which it would be hypocritical for me to see as bad.
AyB always sneaking under the radar, and I don't like his misrepresentation of me as per above. More of the thing Astley said. Might be OMGUSy, but it's the best I've got.
##Vote: All your Base.
Just so I'm not dodging giving opinions on those I put off 'till later, an overall order, from most townie to least, and ignoring those I would call outright cleared:
Rick > Touhou > Shiki > 2g1c if ignoring rolestuff > AyB > Bel-Air
Explanations: Touhou I struggle to place properly, because the clear reasoning inclines me trust them, which I don't know how much to compensate for - the very thing I was worried about right at the start. Role result claim that semi-clears Bel-Air and does nothing to cover theirself makes a poor scum move, but WIFOM.
Rick > Shiki because I don't see anything outright scummy in his posts (there's plenty of bad, of course, the dog rant being the most obvious, but bad =/=> scum), and a lot of neutral posts is better than a few slightly townier posts. I could do with having another look through rick, but I've already spent an hour and a half writing this, so I probably won't get time to.
Shiki > a probably irrelevant 2g1c-if-still-a-suspect; 2g1c has been equally low content, not even sounding townie when it is there, and far too many "I'll say more later's.
Shiki/2g1c > AyB, who is low content and not even neutral when it's there; misrepresentation of my good self may be affecting judgement more than it should, but it's certainly not good
AyB > Bel-Air, who is pretty much zero content. As Rick says, seems to be trying to coast on an unconfirmed mason claim. Last post I remember from him was a case on me consisting of the obvious and the false.
Yes, this means my vote is not on my scum #1, but since scum Bel-Air gives us Touhou's head on a platter as the last scum (modulo scum busdriver assumption), game theory says I'm happy to leave him be for today. If anyone has a counterargument to this do please speak up, because I feel uncomfortable doing it, but I've learned to trust logic more than gut, and I can't imagine any remotely balanced role power that would prevent the town lynch.
Bel-air ninja. Sensible reasoning puts him at slightly better, but only slightly, given little new actual content and the promise of little to follow; at least he's committed to concrete times though (and having managed to post neither before my concert nor between it and bed yesterday, I can't come down on him too hard for that). Will see what he comes up with in 20 hours.
Will post now as I've spent long enough. If I have time, will follow up shortly after a systematic look at the roles and a reread of rick. (Of course, now that I've said this there won't be anything more to say based on either)
