Author Topic: DL Mafia GAME OVER Scum Win  (Read 64614 times)

Cotigo

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #250 on: May 29, 2010, 07:01:52 AM »
Hey look still bored.  Quick response to Kilga, though.  I'm mostly repeating myself so tedious WoT sloughing and new content will wait.  Also bite me.

On the other hand, I think Roukan's issues with Zenny hanging onto his Ciato vote for so long stem from repeated MotK play, where everyone is gung-ho to make sure they get a serious vote out as soon as they can. No one over there really takes a wait-and-see-until-I'm-pretty-sure approach to Day 1, so of course it's going to look weird to him.

I can very well see him not imagining why someone would hesitate in throwing down a real D1 vote.  That's not exactly my issue regarding that, however.  This is:

No original content here; disagreeing with the MC case and nodding his head along with Kilga. Desperately trying to look like he's contributing when really he isn't.

And a mere 2 paragraphs later...

Quote from: Roukanscum?
I can't be bothered linking the 3-4 posts he makes which achieve little beyond further defending the Alice case, which, for the record, he never even placed a vote on. His vote was still lying on Ciato that whole time, and Ciato doesn't come up in his suspicions at all, even for a throwaway 'needs to post'.

The post with the answer to Rou's question here was linked to by Rou himself.  If he was trying to build a legit case against me I'd imagine that he would have noticed something like this instead of writing that very post off as "desperately trying to look like [I'm] contributing" or whatever.  

Cotigo

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #251 on: May 29, 2010, 07:04:48 AM »
Ugh, not stating things clearly enough.  Rather, I could forgive him missing that post if he hadn't linked to it himself, clearly showing that he had at least seen (and I imagine read) it.  Pure accident?  Perhaps, though if that's the case I'm not inclined to buy it just yet.  Still something more tangible than anything I've got on anyone else.

metroid composite

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #252 on: May 29, 2010, 07:13:58 AM »
IRL note--going into serious apartment shopping mode, so I'm going to try to limit Mafia somewhat.  On June 2 (if I live that long) I fly to Georgia for in-person apartment shopping.


My thoughts are as follows--note that most of these are just intuitive gut reactions and me figuring out which people to do a reread on:

Yoshiken
Carthrat
Alice

Looked at them all semi-recenty.  Should probably update with their day 2 stuff at some point, but the flips aren't flattering (Yoshi spatted with Ciato.  All supported Lag/Glen lynch, although Alice never moved his vote onto either of the major trains).  You can probably safely assume that I'm still suspicious of these three as long as it's still day 2 and we haven't seen any crazy claims.

Zenny
Snowfire

Yesterday had a knack for ninjaing me with the arguments I was about to make.  This may just be playstyle similarities, but since time is limited they're low down on my list of "reread and analyze".

Noyn

Likely modkill.

Taishyr
Xanth

Taishyr is someone who was solid early in day 1 (around when I unvoted him) and...I seriously don't remember his role in the rest of the day.  (Which is odd, because his early actions up through the Xanth vote are pretty memorable to me).

Xanth...I remember feeling well...he had content eventually; content I remember slightly rubbing me the wrong way, though.  And...wait, Xanth was Advice Dog?  Advice Dog was very gut-towny (yeah, people change their playstyles; still).

The recent spat between Tai and Xanth makes them both look worse.  My gut reaction says Xanth moreso than Tai.  (Xanth's reply to Tai's attack being...twice as long as any other post Xanth has made).

Roukanken

I was uncomfortable with QR for...not saying anything that stuck in my mind whatsoever.  Rou...my first-glance reaction is a lot like Yoshi and Alice--misreading things.  Not automatically scummy--it's not like I haven't misread some stuff myself.

Kilga

My gut reaction on Kilga is...kinda neutral.  I'm suddenly realizing that I can't remember who his vote was on for most of the day, despite interacting with him decently often.  To the best of my knowledge, nobody's done a Kilga analysis or is tracking the Kilga case, which makes me feel a little uneasy.

So...hmm, when I get time, analysis on probably one of Kilga, Xanth, Rou, or Tai.

Kilgamayan

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #253 on: May 29, 2010, 07:53:25 AM »
Zenny: Ah, duly noted, and will wait for Roukan's response. I...actually have a response of my own to that, but 1) it may be too specific-to-myself to really apply, and 2) I want Roukan to respond before potentially giving him anything with which to work.

MC: What, I make you feel uneasy because no one really thinks I'm suspicious? >_> Are you afraid that I'm going to slack off and do nothing unless people are riding my ass or something? I'm really hoping this isn't an attempt at "Too Townie To Be Town" or something similar. (For the record, Zenny did go over me here, so I am not entirely without peer review. Don't let that stop you if you really want to go over me, though, I guess.)

Also, I seem to have missed an important word in a previous post.

something that's been needling at me for most of the game but only really become worth vocalizing is how much he has blended into the background

That should read "but only really became worth vocalizing recently is how much etc." Basically, I had been aware of it for a good chunk of time, but didn't think it worth mentioning until the line of his I quoted in that post.

/bed


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

metroid composite

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #254 on: May 29, 2010, 08:45:51 AM »
MC: What, I make you feel uneasy because no one really thinks I'm suspicious?

Nah, you don't make me feel uneasy.

Low amount of peer review does make me a bit uneasy.  And I've never done a readthrough on you.

Roukanken

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #255 on: May 29, 2010, 09:19:33 AM »
OK, for the record. 'I overreacted' is NOT an acceptable response, because otherwise it'd be a viable scum play to say any extension that they get called out on was an overreaction. Even then, that's a relatively small part of the argument which you're blowing out of proportion.

As for the unvote - you've gone off on a tangent. Explaining why you didn't do it isn't the problem, it's just the fact that you DIDN'T do it that is the problem. And there's nothing subjective about that, because anyone who wants to read through your posts will be able to verify that for half of Day 1 your vote was completely useless.

Why are you cautious about using your vote on Day 1? Because you're afraid people will agree with you and start a wagon? If you weren't convinced that Alice's lurking was a genuine scumtell - or at least something good enough to kick off D1 discussion - why'd you bring it up in the first place?

Kilga, I'm honestly confused as to why Town WOULDN'T want to get out of RVS as soon as possible. A 'wait and see' strategy only works if there's something to actually watch, so obviously there need to be people acting. Plus, a strategy like that is a good excuse for scum to contribute nothing for half of D1 on the basis of 'waiting for a real case to show up'. It's Day 1, people. Cases aren't coming from nowhere.

MC:
The fact I have to concede pretty much all of those points is probably a sign I've been tunnelling hard here. Apologies.

Xanth/Tai dispute...in terms of the actual debate, I'd agree that Tai is in the wrong, but on the other hand Xanth has allowed the discussion to take up his entire day and hasn't taken any time to hunt. Neither of them rang any alarm bells with me yesterday, but Tai's constant insistence on clarifying yesterday's case is anti-Town in that there's plenty of new information to talk about. Scum/scum distancing is unlikely, though, given that neither of them were in any real danger when the fight started, but I'm finding it hard to believe that there isn't one scum in that dispute, and gut is telling me Tai at the moment.

##Unvote: MC
##Vote: Taitoro


Subject to change if Xanth continues to offer nothing in terms of hunting elsewhere.

Snowfire has fallen off the face of the earth again, Noyn is on the verge of modkill, and Alice hasn't spoken all day. I am disappoint.
<@Tanaka> You just have this aura in mafia that reminds me of a big eyed cute innocent puppy

Excal

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #256 on: May 29, 2010, 09:37:46 AM »
Alright, here's the deal.  Still nothing from Noyn, but Andy has graciously decided to sub in.

He will go missing for a whole game day in about a week's time.  But honestly, while a long stretch of time, it is not only scheduled, but he will return when it is done.  Also, night will show up in the middle of that, so awesome.  (Or at least, I think so, have not actually mathed it out yet.)

So, Noyn's deadline is now basically moved to whenever Andy gets caught up.

Excal

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #257 on: May 29, 2010, 09:44:27 AM »
Andy is informing me that his sober second though makes him feel he may not be adequate.  So far as I am concerned, he would have to work very hard to be worse than the fellow he is replacing at this point, but honestly, I am in a good position to appreciate people thinking about such things before committing right now.

So, yes.  If Andy does not take it, and no one else volunteers (I do not have the time to go looking anymore, and have stopped caring enough to go looking) then I will happily kill him at day's end.

Excal

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #258 on: May 29, 2010, 09:56:45 AM »
Rereading my last statement, it looks like it can be easily misunderstood.  So, I will state that despite being somewhat frustrated with the course of events, there is only one person I am even slightly pissed off at, and hence, only one person who is causing my appreciation for Andy's thinking about things.

Xanth

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« Reply #259 on: May 29, 2010, 11:23:55 AM »
Okay, morning. As of starting writing this at 10:15am I have about four hours before people start banging on my door, as much as I hope to not have to use all of that here. It's enough that I will start with the next line in the sand with Tai.

Tai! I will apologise for frustration leading to language far too aggressive to be fruitful. But that is all. It really does feel like you're trying to play some game of lawyers to shut your eyes and play semantics around my position no matter how tightly I pull you around by the nose. Hanging on for the sake of hanging on.

Right here, you summarise your biggest problems with me being cherry-picking meta, bad simplification of Laggy, and stuff regarding QRou. In fairness, in my rush at the time I did not answer the third of those, which is that I was far more willing to give Rou a blank slate for QR given QR's charges of apparently very justified absence and bad vote than with Glen for Laggy, given how much more had built up on Laggy. And even then I still had a twinge over damning Glen for Laggy's actions. Rou has then blended into several other players, which is why I actually need to go and do some reading outside of this tiny zone.

But for the other two.

Are you in any way still claiming that I cherry-picked meta? Because I'm super certain that it's clear that I didn't, and when you responded here this charge had mysteriously vanished without comment.

The other point is like frustration central, because it's like you need me to explain the need for the evocative tone of the simplification as part of drawing attention to what I want attention drawn to. It's part of the bloody oratory here. That and sticking to it being some form of misrep, which it really wasn't. Stop wriggling here as if it's some matter of subjective disagreement. Look.

At around about here, Laggy's case on Alice is for lurking, plain and simple. Yes? Okay.

Then this, his next [unborked] post comes after Snow voting for him. The modkill stuff aside, he adds the scumlurkAlice charge to his case of LaL (let's not forget that it hadn't even been 24 hours at this point, but it's irrelevant to this point). Agreed? Why yes, that's objective.

Then after my counter-example there is this. Just read that first line! "Who cares about one instance of townlurkAlice? Lurking that much is bad regardless." That's exactly what he says! Not exactly enough for you, apparently, but it's not like it even drops anything additional out of it or anything.

And then the offending line that you've clung to, located here: 'well that doesn't matter, lurking is bad'. That's what he said! And in context this was about how he dropped the meta to point vigorously back to the initial case of simple lurking. I think the only difference is that in the original line I've summed up 'one instance of townlurkAlice' to 'that', which is clear in both contexts. I think the only possible thing you can pull on at all is the later puppet show here, and that's if you're claiming that Laggy was in fact very brazenly and happily cherry-picking meta to support his case, in that the 'who cares about other cases?' there would be incorrect. In which case, lol, sorry, I guess I assumed that he'd backed down when a counter-example up to invalidate his claim, what with it never getting mentioned again and all.

But oh, no, you really are claiming that now. The 'correlation and dependence' thing is what really threw me over the edge into this being hideously desperate. It's even completely irrelevant here: Alice has lurked in every game I can think of (there's got to be a counter-example somewhere, right?), so the greater number of scumlurk nodes is only at the whims of game set up randomness. Worms mafia is the only one that comes to mind where he was / might have been active (could be misremembering - I was N1 kill there), and he was scum there. In fact, other instances of him being scum, meme mafia coming to mind for one, was of a different kind of lurking than what was on offer here and the townlurk in Cthulhu mafia. But argh, did I really need to go into so much detail here.

The other thing that got me with that post was the tone of 'let's agree to disagree... but I will use this to vote for you if need be'. In most of day 1 I'd have roughly accepted that, but not when your case has degenerated from conflicting priorities to the dodgery it is now.

...

On checking up, the one thing I got horribly wrong was the responsibility thing. I'm actually not sure how I hit that impression, as the only thing to that effect was the third paragraph pie here, taken to the effect of 'pie on my face, I was tricked'. That much I will apologise for and retract, but the apology should rather more be for trying to case-build while tired and frustrated without actually checking my sources. I was wrong!

Anyway, that took like an hour. Plenty of time left for the rest of the player base.

Carthrat

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #260 on: May 29, 2010, 12:00:51 PM »
Tai: His case on Rou. Nobody should care about anti-early-LaL now; characterizing it as a scummy position this late troubles me, yet that is what has been done.. As for his first post, Rou in general can be afforded a little slack for not being thorough in his first post of the game, too, so even if it is slightly reportery...

Tai seems to be poking at trivialities, particularly here-

Quote from: Tai
* Next post: here. Okay, where to start? Misrep of MC's case on me (she voted me, explaining that I seemed unwilling to put any pressure on her. Which was, at the time, true) though the rest on MC isn't bad. Most people seem to miss the point of Laggyvote for Alice (Alice -always- seems to lurk, Rat doesn't but has different times. (Sorry, Alice~)). Stating that recording disagreement with the MC case isn't original content on Zenny's part, when it at least commits him to that paper trail. (Zenthor replied to the rest of the issues there, IIRC). SnowFire commentary I'm not honestly positive on accuracy, would need to reread SnowFire's comments. But that post doesn't impress. Switches vote to MC at end of this.

I'm still not sure why the post 'doesn't impress', if you're not sure about the accuracy on Snowfire and mostly find the MC content agreeable, how can you really point to a big problem with it? The rest of his case, I just don't get, because as far as I can see there isn't one; he just kinda surmizes a few Rou posts with iffy opinions, then goes 'not impressed, vote!' I can't see a clear reason to pick him.

I am then not liking how the Tai/Xanth fight developed at all, it grates to see Xanth taking the stance where "Tai is yelling at me. I must respond in triplicate to everything! It's eating into my scumhunting time!" as if it's somehow Tai's fault that he prioritizes responding to Tai (who wasn't even voting him!) over actually doing legwork. Tai does himself no favours by responding with blatant OMGUS, followed by a sympathy plea. I cannot say I'm wholly against the lynch of either party at the moment, and really the whole thing seems somewhat contrived. Offhand I think I dislike Xanth more than Tai, this woe-is-me, reactionary play does not seem natural at all.

Zenny!

Quote from: Zenthor
Carth Ninja.  O...kay, so MC was reporting before because she kept her vote on Xanth, but now on a re-read it's not that reportery?  Riiiiight.  I do accept the logic that newscum would lurk harder, though, so... I guess that's a valid enough point, though.
Think Kilga mentioned it, but my point was that up until when I changed my vote on MC, her posts had generally fit the reporting mold. Afterwards I believe there was a marked improvement, thus I am moving away from lynching her presently.

Not feeling so good about cases on Rou at the moment, I have the feeling he's getting pushed on stuff that, at least on d1, is excusable on account of late replacing; he also wasn't voting Zenny in the end, so...
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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #261 on: May 29, 2010, 12:57:46 PM »
Xanth: No, Laggy's case from start to finish on Alice had been that he will lurk forever until prodded to do so. The post you reference shorthanded this, and the fact that you're willing to explode -that- into a attack worries me. You've balked at shorthand and tried to raise paranoia about it multiple times, actually, about anti-LAL amongst other things.

And dodgery? No, I feel most solid on my case right now. Since, hey, let's add these small tidbits to the case:

* You've mostly only engaged the people you're attacking or who are attacking you; commentary on others has been minimal
* You're willing to resort to scummy tactics (rage) in order to attempt to push people off your case (and if you object to rage being called scummy, you have a long line of this tactic being used for scum in the DL to combat)
* You're also willing to be demeaning and try to treat me like shit in order to get me off your case

So, no. I apologize for any offense you've taken from my stuff - it hasn't been intentional. But you've been more than willing to try and scream my ear off. I'll be very blunt here - if you are Town, which this play definitely doesn't feel like? Act Town. Because as far as I'm concerned you haven't thus far, and if you are Town this has been one epically pointless slapfight for us.


Carthrat: Given the amount of people that jumped onto anti-LAL I'm willing to suspect that the scum likely gravitated into that option. One point I forgot to note is that QR was willing to go LAL - and yes, differences in playstyle, it proves nothing, but the willingness to reverse opinion at a point where "anti-LAL" was at its peak is interesting to me.

And yes, a lot of it was him catching up, but it still feels like very unsteady/already stated content, even in D2 (regarding Makkotah/Zenthor, at least). My vote landed on him because of that - I'm not terribly fond of the content I've seen (he skimmed the third paragraph of my case with a token rebuttal, but) but it's been better in D2 some.


Okay, I didn't really want to do this but since it seems Noyn is probably gonna end up modkilled and I'm currently a voteleader, Roukanken. Did QR get anything tasty N0? Not asking you to claim any effects or anything else that happened that night right now, just asking if she got anything tasty. Yes, this leads into a partial(ly worthless) roleclaim.

Carthrat

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #262 on: May 29, 2010, 01:02:19 PM »
Quote from: Tai
Given the amount of people that jumped onto anti-LAL I'm willing to suspect that the scum likely gravitated into that option

Well sure okay, but I don't think 'a majority/several/some number' of people believing a thing makes believing that thing inherently scummy?
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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #263 on: May 29, 2010, 01:07:47 PM »
And a slight EBWOP: Rou's most recent post also helps me reconsider his case some (in part content, in part vibes - but pretty much the entire post is well thought out and written (EXCEPT THE VOTE ON ME HOW COULD YOU DO THAAAT eh you think it's right, my job to convince otherwise, neh?). Eh, no regrets for my vote on what I felt was lower-/poorer- content material, but unless I spot problems with the content further on, don't think I'm shifting back for the time being.

NINJA Rat: Nnnnn kinda? The more people that take an opinion, the more easily it can be used/subverted for scum on average, and the more suspicious a swelling opinion like that becomes. At least that's the way I reason things.

Doing a SnowFire reread at the moment, back in a bit.

Tohsaka Rin

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #264 on: May 29, 2010, 02:15:55 PM »
The cook's body was a dreadful sight.

Not once had the Harmonian soldiers thought their leader capable of such feats.

Alas.

Sasarai found it rather fitting the cook be forced to eat mackerel for lunch.


Day 2 Votecount

MC (0): Roukanken
Roukanken (1): Taitoro, Zenthor
Carthrat (1): Metroid, Zenthor
Alice (1): Snowfire
Zenthor (2): Yoshiken, Carthrat
Taitoro (3): Kilgamayan, Xanth, Roukanken
Xanth (1): Taitoro

11 Stars of Destiny gathered, maximum party size is 6 who can gang up and lynch one person!

Evidently my watch is wrong. The Day should end at May 30, 2010, 03:35:35 PM PST. I'll try and see where I made an error of conversion and post up the correct time at a later point.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2010, 04:07:36 PM by Sasarai »

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« Reply #265 on: May 29, 2010, 03:03:45 PM »
Huge post to cover the prior lack. Wouldn't normally do something as big as this if not for how time pressures have sucked me out of the game. On that count, the reason this has happened is because it's the first time I've started a game during my really busy period at work. It actually started partway through Cthulhu Mafia - you'll note how I dropped off in a similar manner after my resurrection there. No call for mercy or anything, but just to explain since it seems to be confusing some people.


I'll probably provide a tl;dr summary of the important parts after this one if (when) it turns out to be too big, so feel free to skip to that unless you want to pick at the small print.

Also, I've left the players (less myself and Tai - although having said that I probably should still review him outside his case on me at some point) in starting post order, but will be writing them up in a different order (for instance, starting with Noyn because it's easy). Shouldn't matter, but might result in a few things not following on between players.


1.  Kilga

Kilga actually raised my hackles a little early on for the completely pointless spec on Noyn's votelessness, given that it was a null tell for all involved (I can see plenty of reasons for town or scum alike to apply votelessness / lower the role status of a newbie - can explain if need be but hopefully not?) and he reached bizarrely specific conclusions from it. Especially with his past self partially berating him about doing it. Twice. But sure, hot topic at the time and forewarned, so far less what led him there as the conclusions drawn being lol wut.

That aside and sidelined, solid early play. Pushes all the right buttons. Lots of key stuff, not all regurgitated from elsewhere (first thing to look out for when worried about a 'me too' ploy). Incisive and generally all in line (and yeah, almost always in complete agreement with what's being said, as already noted). If there's scum play at all it would be in anything left conspicuously unsaid, but looking for that is like five times harder than reading what he has said, and I'm comfortable enough with what I do see not to bother at this point.

Only other wurgle I'm really getting from day one (other than maybe being a little hardline on Metroid here) would be here, where QR is apparently his second top candidate despite garnering one mention earlier and lots of dialogue on others since. It's this that set off the panic alarms about buddying up to me, seeing as this mirrored my own position without evidently actually being his own. I can see how it can resolve with her being his second candidate, but wurgle wurgle wurgle.

Going into the overnight stuff, I'm boggling a bit at how quiet you (yeah, my pronouns are horribly inconsistent, but never mind) are about Alice (directly, rather than discussing other people's opinions on Alice), which on a further look pans out through most of the rest of time. I mean, bits and pieces, but far less proportionally than I'd expect given the prominence, and a little more defence than I find comfortable. Especially given that it's only Ciato's move that causes this to actually come out against the train (but I think(?) my play is probably fairly similar given how cautious I was over Laggy's super-early push on Alice as an easy target). Yeah, this is what bothers me the most about his play so far, and marring otherwise pretty solid play.


2.  Metroid Composite

Newbie play to the max, as already largely covered by myself and others. Really not a fan of the game summary posts that were breeding grounds for reporting and misrepping in particular, and the early spell of parking the vote on me before deciding it should be for low content. Generally lots of opinions I disagree with (of newest stuff, oh man 'gut feeling' that I'm worse than Tai), and often a rather strict approach as to what counts as content and not, but I still stand by it being newbie play rather than scumtainted. There are a few things that still stick out despite that, primarily the aforementioned stuff, but there's just so much erratic play in there that I can't imagine scumbuddies not pulling on the reins a bit, and even if taking that risk then something really obvious slipping out at one point or another, which I can't fish out.

I wouldn't say I'm completely comfortable with letting everything go, but as things are I can't see my vote going in this direction, as accepting it from a newbie angle I think Metroid's heart has been largely in the right place, keeping a wide outlook on the player base as a whole. The two things from today that make me stumble at all are the gut feeling (but eh, it's only bad depending on how it develops), and this back and forth with Snowfire regarding night actions, given how it conveniently reinforces the two of them, and after other similar claims had been made. I'm also a little concerned about this in general, as assuming each such case required someone else to act on them for it to happen (what happened to me last night was definitely due to someone else) then with Makkotah's downgrade we're already looking at well over half of the player base interacting and not crossing wires. But not in a way I can really pursue role analysis yet. And anyway yeah, this wurgle would be dependent on scumSnow for scumMetroid to be pushable. I'd call it off as implausible if not for Snow's defence of Metroid on top of this.

Oh, and randomly for your benefit re: Ciato NK1: Ciato's terrifyingly good at scumhunting, so it's unsurprising whenever she gets NKed, even if she couldn't be bothered with playing day 1. There's no point trying to draw anything out from it.


6.  Alice

I was overly wary about the Alice train due to Laggy's push, and Metroid to a growingly lesser degree, although obviously only in combination with a not especially negative direct impression.

Lurking is bad but almost inevitable, and top that with the aggression as expected and we'll leave those at the door. I actually find nothing wrong with a lot of his arguments posed, but then the scum by statistics theory breaks out and is utterly ridiculous. In fact yeah, once you translate it through Alice standards I actually only have an issue with that mind-boggling position of all that's been said (which I suppose in turn lessens the subsidiary suspicion held on Kilga). I think some issue was taken over him calling Glen a newbie but not Metroid? The position reads believable enough as I see it, and I'd take it as a null read regardless. That being said, 'it's Alice' is no excuse for long run low content and I'd kind of hoped that the lesson would have been learned by now, so there's only so long I can overlook the low presence.


10. Noyn

Oh, please let me call him Noyndy, even assuming that Andy doesn't fill those boots.

That is all (typical borderline modkill lurker position otherwise). I'd speculate on the possibility of the votelessness being the 'lower' state of his role and how that might of happened, but it seems super pointless to do so now.


...

Hahaha oh wow, I write as slowly as a crippled turtle with dyslexia and a streak for perfectionism. Yeah, board games happening downstairs now, and I haven't got through half the players, including all of the ones I was murkiest on. You know, the actually important ones. I'm going to continue to write the rest downstairs while the games happen, but warning that the posts may well run through into evening. (I have at least tidied the formatting a little to reflect the review only being partial)

I'm clearly totally out of whack, as I didn't think there was quite so little time left (was 30 hours intended, maybe?).

Also spoilers for current thoughts, I'm expecting to take a large gamble and move off Tai. Still don't have the slightest clue what he thinks he's doing (and has posted again, and among other things still has nothing to say about the supposedly major cherry picking meta point), but this is considering my own past performances (as in, prior experience arguing town against town and scum), horrible sportsmanship meta about how he couldn't possibly be intentionally trying to make my life so hard if he is scum, and more by how the day is shaping up so far today, or the lack thereof. It's rather early for me to be saying this, as I expect the move to be to one of the people I haven't reviewed yet. At a push I'd guess most likely Snow or maybe QRou at this point? But really, rest of the review before I get there.

Taishyr

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #266 on: May 29, 2010, 04:17:45 PM »
SnowFire!

* This post garnered attention from others. I can kind of see the issue, but I can also see where SnowFire comes from here with the logic presented (yes, it takes times for lurkers to come out, this is self evident, does Rat have nothing else to contribute? MC thing was the only poke of anything resembling content, and it was itself reportery ("X is reporting" is reporting). Sure, it's something, but SnowFire calling Rat out on it is understandable.

* Skipping posts because people seem to dislike it when I make comments I don't expect replies to or mental working things out comments...

* This is kinda interesting, on the other hand. Unwilling to vote Glen for the claim due to the power role claim, despite the claim that it makes him more likely to be scum? I mean, I understand hesitation since the role wasn't fully uncovered, but... mmm. Also goes after Alice mainly on gut read and not liking Alice's cases, despite preferring Rat based on the sound of it. Then again he wasn't around at deadline in theory. On the other hand, he pretty much removed any competition for the lynch other than Glen (Rat) by moving his vote to someone with only one vote (Alice)... and doesn't consider (vocally) the other person with only one vote (Xanth). But then again no one was considering Xanth, heh. Still, odd enough behavior that it merits noting, at least to me. (Counting on Ciato/MC to move to Alice couldn't have been assured - we know at least Ciato was 3P).

* Was nodding along to this post until I hit the "Suspicions" section where it went into summary mode. Threw me for a loop, and I can't really trace some of the comments he made there. Would be interested in elaboration of this.

...and that last post has been it from him this game day. Somewhat disconcerting. Still, overall a slight positive read, with the day 1 vote tomfoolery being the only real balking point.


Xanth side comment: I've little more to say about my case on you, and I pretty much refuse to engage in WoT wars with you - or even attempt to read through and grab your points from those walls. Specific points, as I said, state them point blank and I'll probably respond, even though frankly I'm not terribly motivated to given your play thus far. And I'd act surprised at a foreshadowed move off of me, or at the attempted sympathy card play, except I'm really honestly not. Vote still stands.

Roukanken

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #267 on: May 29, 2010, 04:55:06 PM »
Roukanken. Did QR get anything tasty N0? Not asking you to claim any effects or anything else that happened that night right now, just asking if she got anything tasty. Yes, this leads into a partial(ly worthless) roleclaim.
Huh. Yes, I got something tasty N0.
<@Tanaka> You just have this aura in mafia that reminds me of a big eyed cute innocent puppy

Taishyr

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #268 on: May 29, 2010, 05:07:51 PM »
Okay. For the record, I don't actually know what my role does (other than gives tasty somethings), but if QR had felt it was harmful she would have spoken up. If the role has use, keep it to yourself and don't worry about it. (By your reaction, if it had been harmful I would think you'd have attacked me.)

My N1 target was Noyn, hoping that maybe my role could somehow cure votelessness. However, we'll not figure this out at this point, I suspect. Which leads me to an amusing point: Kilga's speculation on the Noyn votelessness (scum did it but unintentionally!) made me wonder if my role was similar in design, so even outside of shutting up Noyn votelessness speculation it wasn't entirely worthless.

I don't see any point in saying my rolename but can do so if desired. Basically here you go. I'm doing this now because as Town I have an obligation to try and ensure that town's best weapon (lynch) isn't used on someone I know is town (me) even if no one else believes me. For the record, however, I've foreshadowed -both the food I give out- and -who I am- in topic, albeit a bit sloppily.

Taishyr

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #269 on: May 29, 2010, 05:23:49 PM »
EBWOP: *I THINK if my role was harmful QR would have spoken up (saying something about getting affected by a role N0). I don't know that she would have or not. Apologies, reread and I sound more certain than should be taken as.

Taishyr

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #270 on: May 29, 2010, 06:54:46 PM »
Blah. And Noyn's not likely to be able to collaborate reports of getting something tasty either. mutter mutter.

Kilgamayan

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #271 on: May 29, 2010, 08:01:57 PM »
Oh God quote stripes.

Kilga, I'm honestly confused as to why Town WOULDN'T want to get out of RVS as soon as possible. A 'wait and see' strategy only works if there's something to actually watch, so obviously there need to be people acting. Plus, a strategy like that is a good excuse for scum to contribute nothing for half of D1 on the basis of 'waiting for a real case to show up'. It's Day 1, people. Cases aren't coming from nowhere.

You're asking the wrong guy to explain this properly; you can see how much stock I put into holding back early on just by look at this game. >_> I've seen it enough here to not believe it particularly scummy, though. Some people perhaps just believe the vote is more sacred than others do, or they wish to be surer than anything ED1 can provide before using their vote in a serious manner and will deign to use voteless discussion to produce cases they can get behind.

Xanth: No, Laggy's case from start to finish on Alice had been that he will lurk forever until prodded to do so.

Come on, you can't be serious with this. Let me bring it up, since it doesn't seem like Xanth pointing it out is going to do a lot of good given the circumstances.

I will not rely on modkills to handle anything (not voting someone because their inactivity warrants a modkill is silly until the modkill actually happens) and I will use metagame galore to confer that Alice's lurkiness has been a great cover for scum play before and, in the absence of other tangible leads at the moment, I will continue to follow up on it.

Specifically:

I will use metagame galore to confer that Alice's lurkiness has been a great cover for scum play before

How can you continue to dispute that Laggy was not trying to use Previous Game Alice Meta in support of his case? I don't know how much clearer Laggy could have been than this.

Also not liking this back-and-forth with Rat:

Carthrat: Given the amount of people that jumped onto anti-LAL I'm willing to suspect that the scum likely gravitated into that option. One point I forgot to note is that QR was willing to go LAL - and yes, differences in playstyle, it proves nothing, but the willingness to reverse opinion at a point where "anti-LAL" was at its peak is interesting to me.

Quote from: Tai
Given the amount of people that jumped onto anti-LAL I'm willing to suspect that the scum likely gravitated into that option

Well sure okay, but I don't think 'a majority/several/some number' of people believing a thing makes believing that thing inherently scummy?

NINJA Rat: Nnnnn kinda? The more people that take an opinion, the more easily it can be used/subverted for scum on average, and the more suspicious a swelling opinion like that becomes. At least that's the way I reason things.

I don't see how either of the things being discussed here - Roukan being an anti-early-LAL guy, and Roukan's stance differing from QR's - can be taken as anything other than null tells at best.

* Given the number of people that were anti-early-LAL, statistically it is very possible that at least one scum was in that group. How does that make being in that group a scumtell? How is this any different than just Hatbotting four our five people, determining it's statistically likely that one is scum, and then using the arbitrary group as a point against someone?  What about the inherent nature of an early-LAL-stance makes it likely that multiple scum piled on, as opposed to, say, a bunch of townies all thinking it's the right play? I don't even know how scum could "use/subvert" an anti-early-LAL policy.
* "Willingness to reverse opinion" is really trying to paint Roukan as bad considering he was never on record as being pro-early-LAL (only QR was). Maybe it was a scum flip-flop, or maybe it's just his playstyle. (For what it's worth coming from an unknown, I'm pretty sure Roukan is inherently anti-early-LAL as a player, based on the games I've played and the talks I've had with him.) You even admit the whole thing "proves nothing" but decide to call it "interesting" anyway, which I can only assume is an attempt to cast his opinion in a negative light while trying to avoid the null tell nature of the "point". What is "interesting" about it?

Both of these really read more as trying to mold the evidence to fit the case than actually trying to scumhunt.

---

Xanth: In terms of QR, I wasn't happy with her for doing nothing but vote for lurkers, and the unhappiness only grew as she continued to be absent. (Obviously the absence was forgiven after learning of the cause, but I can hardly be faulted for disliking it while it was still unexplained.) MC and Zenny suspicions had come and gone, and at least in the case of Zenny I think I provided adequate explanation for why he would have been placed back below QR, if not also in the MC case (though I admit the explanation was short and easy to miss since it's just a half of a line here). In terms of Alice, at the time I hadn't seen a lot from him that I didn't like, and I didn't much like the cases brought against him, so I've been giving him a pseudopass since on the grounds of "crappy arguments are more likely to appear against town that scum". Why did Ciato in particular set me off? Her vote felt like the largest momentum shift toward Alice yet, both in terms of the sheer numbers and the people behind the votes, so I wanted to get my opinion in then.


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Cotigo

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #272 on: May 29, 2010, 08:20:15 PM »
H'okay, going over the Tai/Xanth debauchery. 

Tai's initial XanthAnalysis I'm... not sure what Tai means when he says Xanth cherry picked meta*.  I will admit that I'm not too fond of the way Xanth misrepresented Laggy's dismissal of TownLurkAlice, but that doesn't strike me as a scumtell, and I think too much is made out of the point.  He doesn't vote for Xanth yet, but states him as a clear number two behind Roukanken.

*If Tai is talking about Xanth focusing on the time Alice Townlurked while ignoring the times Alice Scumlurked... frankly, that's a worse misrepresentation than Xanth's of Laggy.  And yes, Xanth, that is a misrepresentation, not "squeezing the essence of what he said." 

I'll state here that also don't think much of Xanth's "Laggy cherry-picked meta!" argument, the more I think about it. I understand it now, yes, but Laggy also pretty clearly addressed why he "cherry picked meta."  Throwing out one outlier because Alice will lurk until pressured seems pretty damn sound to me.

Here's where I start to not like Xanth's argument at all.

Quote
Maybe I'll respond to your new semantics in the morning, but it's got to the point where I swear you're just rewording things to make it seem like you don't understand something slightly different (or not at all different) for a sense of satisfaction that it makes sense for you to be able to vote for me, rather than actually giving two figs about whether I'm scum or not ("I really think he's scum! Oh, but no one else is voting for him, so eh, I guess I'll just give up" is not good for town, as depressing as it may be to be in that position).

Poor sportsmanship aside (HAH! Kettle, je m'appel Pot) this is pretty damn laughable.  For one, I don't really see how Tai's rewording things to make it seem  like he doesn't understand you; he's got a pretty valid point about your early play with Laggy.  Do I think he's making too much out of it?  Perhaps.  Do I find it incredibly odd that you're accusing him of twisting words around to make them fit his case while you accuse him of only not placing his vote on you because nobody else had?  Definitely; that's not even close to the truth--this is the guy who tried to get a endday Yoshiken train started, and he voted for Roukanken when nobody else had.  If in that parenthetical you were in fact referring to his votes on Yoshi, you did it in the most obtuse way possible.

However, do I think this raeg was a scummy attempt to goad Tai deeper into this little spat? Not really.  People get annoyed when you ask them to repeat themselves over and over and over.

The posts from these two to each other that come after seem to me to be belaboring the points already made, though I may go back to them later.

To conclude... They both look equally bad to me, perhaps with Xanth looking ever-so-marginally worse.  Tai's made too much out of Xanth's Day 1 play, and if Tai's comment about Xanth cherry picking meta means what I think it means that is a terrible misrepresentation (which Tai seems to admit to, to a degree.)  I do agree with him, though, that at least one scum may have taken up the Anti-EarlyLaL position to disassociate himself with other scum, and I do agree that some of his points on Xanth are valid, misrep aside.  On the other hand, Xanth looks pretty bad, too, for being wholly dismissive of Tai's valid points (this is the main contributing reason is why Xanth looks slightly worse to me than Tai, for the record; "No this is not worth arguing about what are you stupid?" means very little to me unless you're confirmed town), and for that misrep of his own (if that's what it is and not just him being sloppy with his writing because of raeg).  Xanth may look better or worse once I go over his analysis of other players, but I want to get this out there before I do that.

Though they both look bad, I would be surprised if both were scum and one was trying to bus the other so early in the game.  I wouldn't be too terribly surprised if both flipped town or ITP, but I think it's more likely that one of them is scum. 

Ninjas, will address later when I address things not-slap fight related.

SnowFire

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #273 on: May 29, 2010, 08:33:53 PM »
Argh.  Had half-a-post I was fiddling with last night, but didn't really get anything coherent with it, and decided to get some sleep instead.  And then woke up at 2:00 PM.  ARGH ARGH.

Taishyr: * Was nodding along to this post until I hit the "Suspicions" section where it went into summary mode. Threw me for a loop, and I can't really trace some of the comments he made there. Would be interested in elaboration of this.

Sure.  Actually need to update this anyway.

* Alice: Not much else to say here, though!  I'll admit that my case is mostly based on his first few posts, as his later posts didn't really involve scumhunting.  And nothing has changed.
* Roukanken: I continue to be unhappy with Rou.  Previously I only read his comments on mc and myself closely, and he just plain misinterpreted some of the comments (like the one Taishyr called out where he claimed Laggy was critiquing the early-Rat train).  And today we have... 
Snowfire has fallen off the face of the earth again
Gee thanks.  "Again," too?

My biggest problem with Roukanken is that even when not mis-interpreting, he's putting the worst possible spin on a lot of things.  He's backed off from mc now at least because yeah, that felt...  rehashed and not well thought out.  To put things another way, the reason I don't like Rou is that pretend you are scum replacing into a game without much record before.  Why not hop on the easiest and most current train?  Which was MC at the time Rou joined up, and then Rou pursued it early Day 2 assuming everyone else would come along.

I guess Carthrat has a point that this could just be "late replacement" syndrome and he missed things, but ack.  I do not like this.  Also, in reply to Rou himself...

(snip) I'M VOTING LAGGY ANYWAY BECAUSE HE WANTS TO BE LAZY ON DAY 1'. Also unimpressed with the fact you've basically said 'yeah I agree with Tai' the instant he produces a case against me in what feels like a pseudo-OMGUS.

Why, yes.  And not "anyway," it was "I'm voting Laggy because he wants to be lazy."  There's something to be said for "compress arguments to their unflattering core" but you're just trying too hard here.

* Carthrat ramblings: Yeah they were kind of rambles.  I will say that Carth's Day 2 posts have made a lot of sense to me...  so he's looking better there, no doubt.  His case on Zenny for not doing much substantive seems the best argument against Zenny I've seen so far, though I think there are better cases to pursue.

* Xanth vs. Taishyr: Newer, but it seems I've been beaten to the punch by Rat & Zenny.  My opinion is exactly the same as theirs off my initial reading - that both of them look the scummier for this dispute, with Xanth looking slightly worse because it's out-of-character for him.

Ack.  And have to leave now.  Guess I better just post what I have, will try and return and do some more late Day 2 analysis later, since my handle on recent events is weaker than the Day 1 nonsense.

Taishyr

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Re: DL Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #274 on: May 29, 2010, 08:37:15 PM »
Okay. To reply to Kilga (and thanks for pointing that out) - okay, simplest way I can do this:

1) Okay. So first, let's establish what we think Laggy was actually saying, since this is probably where most of the damn confusion is coming from (that and my frustration with having to explain a dead guy, since you just referenced one point, Kilga, at which I just shrunk the case into bitesized. Apologies, you're right to snap at me for that; I've just stopped caring and I've only been responding to what's been quoted at me. What you're quoting there was me replying to/paraphrasing a point about this, I think. Go ahead and bite at me if you wanna say I'm rewriting history but my patience for dealing with Xanth after a certain point went to near-zero and I've just been firing quickresponses). Here's what I'm getting, from a reread of day 1 (and I admit to paraphrasing his words in part but that's just for the sake of this exercise):

"I, Laggy, am voting and keeping my vote on Alice until content is produced. This is being done for the following reasons: Alice has used his lurking tendencies to hide his scum affiliation before in multiple other games and I believe this to be a valid read. I am not concerned about other players "lurking" at this point in the game, as it is early. However, Alice has done this before, and is likely to be doing this again. That you can name one instance of this lurking hiding town instead of scum does not invalidate this strategy given that it has been used so often for hiding scum!Alice. However, if a valid reason is provided for such an absence, I am willing to shift my vote."

Kilga, will you agree that that's a decent reading of what he was saying? I know it's how I read him for most of day 1, but apparently I have mindprobes or something forbidding me from competent conversation. I'll go further once we're done hashing that out.

Regarding the second half of your post: it's how my brain works on the anti-LAL, and frankly I suspect more than one scum in the group, but. And how do they subvert it? Oh, I don't know, use it as an attack point on a townie that's pushing early LAL and backing it with meta about how the person tends to be scum and tends to be lurking. Just a guess, though!

"proves nothing" isn't the same as "indicates nothing". Doesn't mean it's a worthless thing to keep in mind. Does mean that it's hardly a be all end all and that jumping on Rou for jumping away from QR's case would be idiotic and I'd merit beatings via wet fish. It's mainly interesting just because of the sudden dynamic shift (I'd be wondering what the person I'm replacing into was thinking, even early on - that willingness to voteshift and decry the opinion was simply eyecatching, and thus interesting) This being said, you confirming that he'd be against this sort of thing anyway is a decent help - Roukanken's not someone I have a good measure on in this regard. So.