Tsundere Mafia - Game Over

[Helga Pataki]

I really, really don't like how yesterday ended. There was absolutely no need to rush the lynch, even if you think Mai was the towniest town that ever townied. Tanaka, seriously, what was up with that? Mai was only at two votes. Two quickly gained votes, but two votes all the same. Leia was not looking great, but do you really think the continued discussion was that dangerous to just go ahead and lynch? I can sympathize with wanting to deal with the atrophy in the discussion, but it just doesn't feel like a wholly great move. Care to share your thought process, apart from Leia being scummy?



As for cases today, I love Mai as a suspect.

Leery at people popping up and going 'well Leia might not be scum because scum would not do what she does, it's too easy!' It is pretty much one of the scummiest things you can do and I certainly shall not be going elsewhere today. Mostly looking at Maya going 'surely Leia would have silenced Rin by dying'. It is a pretty hard thing to gauge; Leia probably expected to die on her own soon enough, she could not be thinking at all, she could be waiting for a buddy to slam her, she could be a lot of things. Tron pretty much nails it by pointing out what she is doing is flagrantly anti-town. Kinda want to see how it all goes down before speculating on teams- but a Leia/Rin one isn't one I think is too likely at this point, for all that I think they're both pretty bad.

Not liking Maya much, this is a situation where I think keeping it simple is better and rooting around for theories on contributors instead of those who, well, aren't seems like it's looking right past the obvious. In her case on Tron here-

Ran around like a headless chicken, very pointedly did not respond to my expanded argument (you know, after having hated the earlier form of it at this point), and for playing daddy's little friendly helper since to blend back in. What's this, you just so happen to agree with two of the cases of the day that were made before you posted? What are the odds! Let's not forget that the actual sum content of what she did after getting all flustered - which I think is at least part of why people aren't voting for her? - was actually no better than most. The very large attitude change to the new sweetness does nothing to dissuade me either.

-doesn't have anything solid in it that is screaming 'SCUMMY TRAITS' to me, so I'm not sure why she's still pursuing it as this juncture and certainly don't think it is more deserving than the many other colourful characters I've singled out today.

This quote kinda looks bad in light of both Leia and Maya's town flip. Leia's behavior was pretty bad at the time, but this was a large leap in speculation. It ascribes a level of insidiousness to Leia I don't think was ever there, despite the attitude Leia copped.

In particular, I really agree with this quote from Maya yesterday about Mai.

Hey guys, let's not pay any attention on the people who are talking and line people up in the order of how little they've spoken. Mechanical thinking, mechanical excuses. Turn brain off, let scum win. I'd buy it as the thought process from someone hopelessly dedicated to the rule book, but not from Rat. Not for a minute. And he's been playing this card all day.

I had the same kind of feeling yesterday, when Mai made a big deal about my charge against Li for missing out on sudden death and proposing it might have been on purpose. This was a legitimate thing to at least bring up, though it might not have been as damning as I thought it was. Calling it completely stupid was not constructive at all, and saying Li was around up to that point completely missed mine. Maya showed what good townies do with things like that by at least taking it seriously and offering a legitimate counterpoint, at least.

Was suspicious of her yesterday too, so for now, ##Vote: Mai

I'm also going to give a second look at Maya's case on Tron, since after looking at the voting record, aside from Mai, Tron is the only person that Maya really had a vote on.

[Tanaka]

Helga: There were, in fact, less than four hours remaining in the day, and I was going to sleep then.  I guess plurality lynch was still in effect but I seriously dislike that and prefer hammering, since I did in fact find Leia scummy.  My frustration stemmed more from Li unvoting Rin than voting on Mai - for all that I still think that the case on Mai is silly bordering on dangerous. 

Seriously, you're bringing up Maya's attempting to pull a metagame argument on Rat?  And a faulty one at that, since, well, Rat IS known as the Hitler of Lurkers for a reason?  And LAL IS a good strategy?  That was facepalm worthy when Maya did it, and I regret not jumping on her more at the time now but argh so much badness to flip out at.  Frankly Mai IS the towniest town to me at this point.  TV Tanaka's Scum-O-Meter: 1/10

Others...
- Helga.  Lurked early, has gotten better since then, but hasn't done anything that stands out much.  I grow increasingly suspicious of the pushes on Mai though.  TV Tanaka's Scum-O-Meter: 5/10

- Tron.  Has basically done nothing all game but defend herself from one of the Standard Day 1 Trains that Maya kept riding day 2.  (Voting Leia yesterday is a null for everyone in my books because argh ragequitting townies).  Is perhaps justified in this but I really don't like the wheelspinning in her latest post.  TV Tanaka's Scum-O-Meter: 5/10 but waiting to see what she's got today.

- Margaret.  Was okay early but where'd she go?  TV Tanaka's Scum-O-Meter: Impending Modkill/10??

- Li.  Ku-ray-ze train jumping all game which I can't make heads or tails of.  I thought it was scummy at first but... I just don't know now.  Is anti-Rin at last call which is something I can get behind but is also anti-Mai which is    TV Tanaka's Scum-O-Meter: 4/10

- Rin.  One post.  No votes.  Post does nothing except prod a few cases (notably Tron.)  TV Tanaka's Scum-O-Meter: 8/10

Possibility: Rin/Tron?  Let's look back at day 1.  Uh.  And day 2.  Uh.  I think these interactions look bad, yes.

##Vote: Rin

[Li Syaoran]

Right now I'm really thinking are two scum are among Tron, Rin and Mai. Tron is flaring up after Maya's death, but besides that I can come up with good ways to quantify the Tron/Rin and Rin/Mai pairings - namely, the Tron/Rin interaction here and (as I've mentioned several times already) the way that Mai tip-toed conveniently around Rin's lurking charges. Tron/Mai doesn't look as viable as the other two options.

The only real issue I'm seeing with this idea is The Amazing Disappearing Margaret. She was solid enough Day 1, save her 'oh hey Asuka is clear because uh' point, but for D2 about her only contribution that I can recall off the top of my head was 'Helga, Li, talk about Tohsaka'. After that, she sort of...vanished, with her vote still lying on Leia for the rest of the day. It's not enough to really put her ahead of the Rimination (fun with fake anagrams!) at the moment, especially since she's probably going to get modkilled at this rate, but if she gives some last-minute crap post to avoid the kill then I'll really be giving her some serious consideration.

Since she appears in both the scumpairs I'm currently seeing, and in her two contributing posts all game has said almost nothing original (and what is original is ignored in favour of dieplzleia), ##Vote: Rin (L-2) for now. Seriously, if you have time to construct a wall like that, you have time to produce points that aren't recycled. Or press on your Tron case and convince me it's better than the case on you. Anything. Just stop copying people.

[Tron Bonne]

Hm. Somehow we're not in LYLO (rules post states LYLO day would have no time limit) which means two scum. Unexpected for a game this size. Does make me comfortable enough to go ahead and do this, however:

##Vote: Rin

This puts her at -1 to lynch. Early in the day for it, I know, but I don't mind given how bad she looks. To wit:

One notable post on each of the previous days. Significant amount of parroted content in them. Any content in the one case she tried to push yesterday (against me) that wasn't nabbed from Maya consisted of demonstrably false statements. I really must direct anyone looking at her case towards replies 82 and 83 in the thread. I feel the fact that she blatantly ignores content within the same posts of mine that she cites in order to make it appear as though I was making a completely contradictory statement is a shining hallmark of fabricated cases. This isn't a question of interpretation; she flat out says my posts mean the opposite of what's typed there for all to see. She also never replied when I refuted these points, despite saying she was going to be around and provide more observations.

Textbook lurkscum trying to look productive. I am aware that similar statements were made about Leia yesterday (well, minus the attempt to look productive) and feel that this makes no difference. It says more about this being the laziest town ever than anything else. This also stands out on a reread:

The only person I still can't really make sense of right now is Helga, but let me get this out first before I land on the business end of a sword... or worse. More in my next post.

Why was Rin worried about dying there? It's a strange comment to make. There was talk from plenty of people about suspecting her at that time, but she clearly wasn't on the block (Leia was near getting lynched at the time and doing nothing to stop it). So why the avowed concern? It's just special pleading. "I'm worried about getting killed, so I must be a townie." Actual townies don't need to make comments like this.

~

Reading new posts now. WIFOM incoming, watch your head:

Right now I'm really thinking are two scum are among Tron, Rin and Mai. Tron is flaring up after Maya's death, but besides that I can come up with good ways to quantify the Tron/Rin and Rin/Mai pairings - namely, the Tron/Rin interaction here and (as I've mentioned several times already) the way that Mai tip-toed conveniently around Rin's lurking charges. Tron/Mai doesn't look as viable as the other two options.

Bolded statement is awful reasoning, Li, and the sort of comment that's had me looking at you all game (I am increasingly thinking that it's more bad reasoning than ill intent just because it's so consistent; a backhanded compliment, I'm aware, but you're just uncoordinated in a way that says clueless town more than flailing scum). Speculating on why scum killed who they killed is worse than pointless. It's completely unreliable and only propagates the kind of confusion they like.

I also fail to understand what about my exchange with Rin says anything to you about us being a scumteam. I looked back at the post you linked and you really don't go into that possibility at all there. Actually, you mostly just nod your head at Rin's case, your only misgiving being that she doesn't couple it with a vote. Do you have an actual explanation here?

I've probably said this before, but I think it's bad play to speculate on scumteams when we don't have any flipped scum. You can speculate on multiple individuals being scum, yes, but using one person of unconfirmed alignment to clear or condemn another person of unconfirmed alignment is a circlejerk of assumptions. There's just not enough information to speculate productively on it and it leaves someone groping in the dark. Or scum trying very hard to look like a perceptive townie. Which makes me want to take a closer look at Tanaka since he's doing it too.

Tanaka, I pose to you the same question I just asked Li: what about my interactions with Rin says anything to you? In your last post, you pick a couple stray messages and say these "look bad." This is uselessly vague. What about them looks bad? You give us two posts in a vacuum and act as though it means something obvious. I want examples and reasons. Until then, it's not much of an argument. Possibly just slinging mud.

~

So I'm obviously sticking to Rin as number one suspect right now. Houlihan looks terrible for disappearing but is pointless to pursue while mod action seems possible. Li is increasingly difficult not to see as an illogical and easily led townie (sorry man, I call it like I see it). This leaves me with the possibility that someone's been slipping under my radar. Mai, Tanaka or Helga. Am going to do some rereading and consider which of the three looks most likely.

[Margaret Houlihan]

Last I spoke with General Margatroid, I wasn't in any real danger.  As things stand, I was suddenly called into the operating room for the last day or so of the last day.  Still trying to catch up on a few things.

On that note, I was targetted by a role blocker last night.  And I have reason to suspect that it was a Chinese roleblocker.

[Tron Bonne]

After some rereading, I can't find any compelling reason to suspect Mai right now (except that Rat's alive on day three. This is a joke Rat don't hate me). The occasional statement twigged as being disagreeable, but I can't fault the fundamental arguments she's been making.

Out of the trio I wanted to look at, Helga stands out the most. The first bad thing I see is right on this page:

In particular, I really agree with this quote from Maya yesterday about Mai.

Hey guys, let's not pay any attention on the people who are talking and line people up in the order of how little they've spoken. Mechanical thinking, mechanical excuses. Turn brain off, let scum win. I'd buy it as the thought process from someone hopelessly dedicated to the rule book, but not from Rat. Not for a minute. And he's been playing this card all day.

I had the same kind of feeling yesterday, when Mai made a big deal about my charge against Li for missing out on sudden death and proposing it might have been on purpose. This was a legitimate thing to at least bring up, though it might not have been as damning as I thought it was. Calling it completely stupid was not constructive at all, and saying Li was around up to that point completely missed mine. Maya showed what good townies do with things like that by at least taking it seriously and offering a legitimate counterpoint, at least.

I really don't like how Helga takes up the mantle of the slain townie to support her cause. It's cheap and honestly looks a little slimy to me. She's also seconding metagaming, which I deplore. I can't properly express how dreadful this game becomes when it's turned into "Person X must be Y alignment because otherwise they wouldn't say Z," but that's basically what Helga's agreeing with here. Metagaming alone isn't reason to declare someone scum, no, but it's in the company of other problems here. For example, it's a mischaracterization to boil down Mai's entire game to LAL. It's been a significant part of Mai's reasoning for votes, yes, but it's always been coupled with notes on behavioral quirks and bad arguments, and I think it disingenuous to ignore that. I'm also really not sure what she's getting at with that big Mai quote she included in her last post. Mai wasn't reading that much into Leia's actions but rather, it seemed to me, advising against doing just that.

I've seen this kind of thing crop up in her posts a couple times (notably stating that Li deliberately avoided day 1 deadline when we have no way to prove this and it would've been more advantageous for scum Li to be there) and fallen into the habit of ignoring them because there was usually enough there that I did agree with to give her a pass, but it does look worse the more often it happens.

Still don't have much to pin on Tanaka. There's the nagging suspicion that his posts say a lot of things that have already been said by others and it's just been easy to overlook this because he's so entertaining, but it's hard to substantiate this since he has at least generally given good reasons to go after the people he has. Just a little uneasy here. Still looks better than Helga, though.

Rin > Helga > Tanaka = Li > Mai for suspicion right now, then. Not sure what to think about Houlihan.

...Oh hey, ninja'd by Houlihan after all. Dunno what to say about that; such an admission begs more questions which it may be best not to ask. So I'll just ask for thoughts on the current situation and the surviving players.

[Margaret Houlihan]

That's a fair request, especially since everyone else seems to be doing it.

Rin, I agree looks bad right now.  She's been doing the bare minimum to get by, and hasn't been engaging in conversation.  Several of her points are also waffling, stating something right before she counters her own points, leading to making it look like she's involved when she comes out of it having said nothing at all.  We may be trying to dig out the truth, but we're no reporters to be trying to be fair and balanced and get every side of the issue.  I'm not going to be voting for her right now, but I'd be comfortable in leaving a vote on her.

Tanaka, generally looks good.  But I'm not sure I like his recent posts tying Rin and Tron together.  I took a look at them, and while Rin did spend an inordinate amount of time talking about Sgt. Bonne and saying nothing, this read more as an attempt to say nothing about the major topic of the day, which Sgt. Bonne was.  If it had been about someone random, then I'd be more inclined to agree.

Private Li, also generally looks good, and while he may have had some bad cases, has been very useful in his search.  In fact, since Radar left, we've had to make due with that freak, Klinger.  Maybe you'd like to enlist and take the position?

Bonne...  neutral read at the moment.  Can't see where the connections between her and Rin are coming in.  At this point, my suspicions of her are as much to keep options open as anything else.

Helga and Mai, I haven't seen anything overly suspicious from either of them, but then, I'm having a hard time bringing either of their stances (besides Mai's LAL stance) to mind.  Which means I'm not comfortable saying anything about them at present.  Worried about Mai though.

[Carthrat]

Will vote for Rin later barring shocking revelations. Don't even need to really think about this, and it's all been said anyway.

I gotta agree with Margaret on the weirdness of Tanaka tying Tron and Rin together though. I didn't even really understand Maya's case on Tron at all in the first place, and I did try, not sure what it is presently. Worst I can say about her right now is that she's kinda defensive, and it's hard not to roll my eyes at that being enough to go after her.

Also, I have no idea how Rin could really be linked to anyone, either. She just hasn't done enough, and while I can get behind looking at scumpairs at this stage of the game, it's more picking the two individually scummiest players rather than looking for links, I think. Game's too dead. Too many people were quiet at different times. But yeah Tanaka isn't looking so good to me after that last post, there is no case on Tron that I can see.

I'm divided on Margaret for the moment and it's late enough in the game that asking this won't really hurt us, why do you think Rin is a roleblocker, specifically? Quantify your statement, please.

Don't like Helga for invoking the old 'but the people who just died were town and you didn't like them!' sentiment. I really hated this, too-

Leia's behavior was pretty bad at the time, but this was a large leap in speculation. It ascribes a level of insidiousness to Leia I don't think was ever there, despite the attitude Leia copped.

Well obviously it wasn't there since she was town, but come on, by all appearances she was horribly lurky and scummy and I'd just been addressing how her actions could make sense from a scum point of view in response to Maya telling me they didn't at all! Hell, read the whole statement-

It is a pretty hard thing to gauge; Leia probably expected to die on her own soon enough, she could not be thinking at all, she could be waiting for a buddy to slam her, she could be a lot of things. Tron pretty much nails it by pointing out what she is doing is flagrantly anti-town.

What is ascribing an unusual level of insidiousness, here?

[Alice Margatroid]

Pretty tired over here, but...I guess you guys could use a vote count. No, it's no trouble at all, really!

Mai Tokiha (1): Helga Pataki
Rin Tohsaka (3): Tanaka, Li Syaoran, Tron Bonne

No vote: Mai Tokiha, Margaret Houlihan, Rin Tohsaka

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. You have about 66 hours remaining.

Rin Tohsaka is at L-1!

[Li Syaoran]

Bolded statement is awful reasoning, Li, and the sort of comment that's had me looking at you all game (I am increasingly thinking that it's more bad reasoning than ill intent just because it's so consistent; a backhanded compliment, I'm aware, but you're just uncoordinated in a way that says clueless town more than flailing scum). Speculating on why scum killed who they killed is worse than pointless. It's completely unreliable and only propagates the kind of confusion they like.

You realise that there's a reason I'm not going 'HOLY SHIT MAYA DIED TRON IS OBVSCUM', right? My vote is sitting on the player who I feel is scummiest, regardless of teams.

I also fail to understand what about my exchange with Rin says anything to you about us being a scumteam. I looked back at the post you linked and you really don't go into that possibility at all there. Actually, you mostly just nod your head at Rin's case, your only misgiving being that she doesn't couple it with a vote. Do you have an actual explanation here?

Rin's only unique, original contribution was the point she made against you. It's actually the first solid and genuine point I've seen her produce all game, but she then proceeds to not follow up on it. Never mind the fact that both days you've been lingering safely in third place or so when she declares her suspects.

Helga I am reconsidering now she's been brought up. She disappeared yesterday a la Margaret, but I think I let her off lighter than I should have because she went along with the Mai case. Again, if she's working with anyone it's probably Tohsaka, given that she had ample time to consider both cases last night, and went for Mai with both all three barrels. It doesn't help that looking back in her posts, the only references Helga ever makes to Rin are a few 'post more' prods which are honestly worthless.
Also, there's this:

Tohsaka: We seem to agree at the very least that Li's A/B theories about Houllihan were offbase. You are working with slightly more info (Li's quick-flip to Mai afterwards), but we came to the same conclusion. Leaving out what I said about Mai, what exactly about my post is non-sensical?
...
On Rin: Her one post of the day had more content than Leia, Mai and others. However, it's inexcusable that she hasn't shown up since so you can't really count it in her favor. Seriously. Post more.

Either this was a typo on Helga's part, or she's giving Rin credit for a point she, uh, never made.

The whole buddy thing is starting to look a lot more vague now, admittedly, but Rin is still definitely my first suspect. Tanaka I don't feel bad about right now, Margaret even more so now that she's re-emerged. Only concern is that 2 scum in an 11-player game raises the possibility of third-party, but for now I'm sticking with Tohsaka.

[Tanaka]

Tron/Margaret/etc: I was referring back to Tron's last post on day 2, which contained a lot of what I would call wheel spinning regarding "well we don't know if Rin is town" without really saying much.  I read back further, and in those posts I linked, both Rin and Tron talk about each other more than I think would be usual at that point in the game, without actually saying anything of substance about each other.  I think this is possibly scummy interaction.  As noted, speculation on interactions like that is premature and really doesn't mean much without a flip, in regards to Tron, BUT the point I was trying to make is that at the very least it doesn't help Rin in my eyes at all because it's one of the few significant interactions there have been with her *at all*, either way, and it's at the very least weird and not scumhunty.

Busy now, more later, Margaret just to be clear here is that Chinese part flavor or are you actually specifically accusing Li of roleblocking you?  If so can you elaborate on why?  (or is Li even Chinese?) 

[Margaret Houlihan]

Right, I forgot that somehow, we have two Chinese people in on this UN Expedition to fight North Korea and their Chinese allies.  I have no clue who it might have been, just that I have reason to believe this power will belong to our enemies.

[Tanaka]

Less busy, more tired, and honestly forgot what else I was going to post this afternoon, except a paranoia Li analysis on Marge's accusation but apparently that was flavor after all.

... and there's been no other posts since then?  This is not the way to succeed in the world of business.

Oh yeah, third party speculation.  Is... silly because if there is one I don't think they're findable with the level of activity this game's had. 

Rin is the only thing I'm pretty sure about now, I really don't like Mai's attitude here, +2-3 points on the Scum-o-Meter.  A little too cavalier perhaps?  Then again I can't blame her for being cavalier about Rin since other speculation at this point is "spin the bottle for Rin's buddy" which is getting ahead of ourselves, or "oh god what if it's not Rin" in which case... again I'm not sure what to say because Rin trumps any other sort of pairing I can think of.  Someone will probably say it's unhealthy that I'm thinking in terms of pairings already but you know, I don't really think it is, I think we need to be thinking that way at this point. 

[Tron Bonne]

Tanakastuff.

Tron/Margaret/etc: I was referring back to Tron's last post on day 2, which contained a lot of what I would call wheel spinning regarding "well we don't know if Rin is town" without really saying much.

You fail to acknowledge context. The post existed to point out the flaws of an assumption Maya was making, flawed arguments being used in the defense of someone I found scummy. When I see nonsense I feel obligated to refute it, although perhaps I should stop since the net result seems to be people characterizing me by arguments I'm actually disagreeing with.

I read back further, and in those posts I linked, both Rin and Tron talk about each other more than I think would be usual at that point in the game, without actually saying anything of substance about each other.  I think this is possibly scummy interaction.  As noted, speculation on interactions like that is premature and really doesn't mean much without a flip, in regards to Tron, BUT the point I was trying to make is that at the very least it doesn't help Rin in my eyes at all because it's one of the few significant interactions there have been with her *at all*, either way, and it's at the very least weird and not scumhunty.

There's a lot of weasely language in here. The first sentence really doesn't mean anything--I'm forced to wonder, what precisely is the standard amount of talking two players can do about each other during this vaguely specified point in the game before it looks odd? And "possibly scummy interaction" looks like wafflese to me. Is it, or isn't it? I have made a case against Rin that I believe to be substantial (as much as it can be given her limited material), citing specific arguments of hers that I feel to be forced and referring back to them later. If you've missed all that then I can only respond with questions marks.

Tanakaninja! Agreement on killing third-party speculation; won't get us anywhere right now. Not really seeing your problem with Mai today. It's not like "Kill Rin!" is the only thing she said.

[Tanaka]

what precisely is the standard amount of talking two players can do about each other during this vaguely specified point in the game before it looks odd?

When one of the players makes all of two contentful posts all game, and doesn't vote or take any stance with their post on day 2?  Any amount. 

I'm being waffly because I honestly don't know because this game is so dang silent and there doesn't seem to be anything else I *can* do except wait for Rin to flip scum or spin more random theories.  Very frustrating, feels like I should just shut up and wait for the day to end again and then maybe people will start playing with a scum flip (or god forbid LYLO) but that's just... argh. 

[Margaret Houlihan]

I'd be more curious about Tanaka if I weren't coming to agree.  The question of Rin does need to be addressed.  Especially since she has this amazing ability to show up just before getting modkilled each and every day.

Private Pataki, is there any reason why you feel that Corporal Tohika's concerns over Maya are especially damning?  We have had two days where the primary case has been on people we now know to be good loyal Americans (in their hearts, if not their Birth Certificates)?  In fact, we now know that three of the people in that five man pile up on the first day were innocent.  Which means that being wrong is, sadly, something at least a few Americans have done.

Anyways, I will wait for that answer and go over some some more dossiers.  However, unless someone else can think of something else to say, I think it's agreed that Rin will be the target for today, and we may as well not waste time if all we'll be doing with it is waiting.

[Alice Margatroid]

Rin Tohsaka has been prodded for inactivity.

[Tron Bonne]

Ugh.

I am inclined to say this shouldn't change our course of action today, though. Rin could be having RL problems; Rin could also have decided to just not come back after seeing three votes against her early in the day. We don't know. What we do know are the standing charges against her. Those haven't changed.

Logistically speaking, modkilled Rin + us lynching someone else today is also very risky for us. If we're wrong about both (though I think that unlikely in Rin's case) then we potentially lose the game overnight (one lynched townie, one modkilled townie, one nightkilled townie = two town and two scum left. This is autowin in scum's favor). We functionally do buy some time by preventing modkill (I mean, we could just let the modkill happen and also just let the day end, but I hate No Lynch days on principle). I'd rather ensure we have that extra day with the benefit of another flip to provide new information, because this day sure doesn't seem to be producing much more of it. Really agreeing with Tanaka/Houlihan's impulse to end it.

Obviously suggest giving the modprodded player time to show up as a matter of courtesy, but if that doesn't happen in a reasonable span of time then I support lynching her before the modkill kicks in. I'm skeptical that we'll accomplish anything else today anyway. I already have my vote down, at any rate, so checking out for a while.

[Carthrat]

Yeah I'm not too interested in just letting the day drag out or having modkills happen, both on principal and er they could just lead to us outright losing. I'd rather just lynch her and be done with it, and I can see no point to not just doing it right now, it is clear nobody is arguing against it or seriously for any other case today. Except Helga on me, yeah I think we can disregard that one.

##Vote: Rin

[Alice Margatroid]

HAMMER SHUT UP

[Alice Margatroid]

Well I was going to write story but on second thought since Rin's player was apparently tsun-tsun for posting I'll be tsun-tsun for flavor in her direction.

Rin Tohsaka (Town Miller) was lynched by majority!

It is now Night 3. Night actions from all I require them of, please.

[Alice Margatroid]

A toy United States medical supply plane was shot down over the Misty Lake, near the Scarlet Devil Mansion.

It just came in.

There were no survivors.

Margaret Houlihan (Town Jailer) was killed overnight!

It is now Day 4. With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch. You are in LYLO. There is no time limit.

[Tron Bonne]

Mrrrrghl. Why do you people sign up if you're not going to play. Frustration. Here's where I'm standing right now, anyway.

Helga: Our best bet to nab scum at this point. Day 1 disappearing act, various forced arguments throughout the game, made one post yesterday and then vanished (and there were more then twenty-four hours worth of game-time leading up to the lynch). This leaves the bulk of her content on day 2, where she mostly focused on cases other people ultimately didn't follow (Mai, Li).

Tanaka: Has been on every mislynch of the game. He's been a constant presence but, outside of Chiaki day 1, I find it hard to remember cases he's pushed for really strongly. I mean, there's Rin, who Tanaka came out voting for first on day 3, but Rin was getting flak throughout day 2 and Tanaka was kind of late to that party. Over the course of day 3 he expressed doubts about Li, Mai, Helga, and myself as though laying groundwork for whichever case would be most advantageous today. High presence cheerleader act pushes him above Li/Mai.

Speculation: Helga/Tanaka scumpair? Neither has ever subjected the other to much scrutiny. Every now and then they've highlighted something they didn't like in one of the other's posts, but they've never really pressed it or followed it up with a vote. They've also both stated, at varying times, that they're not sure they trust those Li/Mai blokes, without ever really acknowledging that the other is making similar points (Tanaka does call Helga on a bit of metagaming she uses against Mai, but he escalates his own suspicion of Mai shortly thereafter). Scum hivemind in action with a veneer of conflict?

Li: Kind of hard to consider as anything but a hapless townie by this point. If he's pulling the I, Claudius act, it's a good one. I'm wondering now if Helga and Tanaka's votes for him early day 2 was a train attempt that didn't pick up steam and was abandoned in favor of Leia when she became the center of attention.

Mai: Has mostly made sensible arguments, I feel, so it's hard for me to find any cracks here. I am open to compelling counterarguments, just haven't seen any thus far (Helga's wound up having too many flaws that led me to view it as an artificial case; Tanaka just made brief mention of some gut suspicion yesterday).

[Alice Margatroid]

Oh yeah, if people have player guesses, now would be a good time to submit them. I'm actually keeping track this time!

[Li Syaoran]

I...am not sure how to respond to Rin flipping town. I am...not sure if it's a good idea to reveal the players when we're done here, because there may or may not be an angry mob ready to strike them down.

OK, so my buddy ideas pretty much all involved Rin so they're out the freaking window. We're down to:

- Helga: The infamous 'screw this, I'm not playing D1'. Looks for any excuse to hold onto the Li case - when people point out that it'd be a stupid idea for me to not be around when I was up for sudden death she still said 'yeah, his disappearance was purposeful! Even if he had no reason to do it and it only meant he could have been lynched no problem!'
Besides that, she's shown an impressive ability to be on all the big wagons post D2. First she tries to continue the Li wagon from the day before, then switches to Leia, and then tries to pick up the Mai case on D3. This is noteworthy in that she didn't start any of these cases, save possibly the Li case which she held to until Leia became the center of attention.

Tanaka: I am disturbed by the fact I need to look back through Tanaka's posts in order to remember some of his stances. There are times he's been just about invisible to me.
'k, so. D1 EMPTY UNVOTING CHIAKI IS THE DEVIL, I'm willing to see as 'oh god we have nothing to work with at all just find anything'. Mai typo doesn't seem to have any ill intent, and her vote was hard to see, so I assume it was a mistake. Null tell.
After that, there's a few points I was considering bringing up but didn't see the point in given my belief in a Rin/Someone pair.

Leia is incredibly scummy!  But maybe also a stupid townie bombing themselves!  But if so she's even worse!  And also calling me scum for no reason!  (or, rather, for "being slimy" which is apparently different from "being too charismatic" which is also scummy what)  What do I do!

"Hey there! Don't mind me! I'm just covering my bases so I can say I was suspicious of Leia but also disapprove of what will turn out to be a Townie lynch!"
If we're considering the Helga/Tanaka pair, they've interacted with each other a few times thus far: Tanaka called her D2 post nonsensical before, uh, voting for the same person she did, points out AGAIN that he dislikes Helga here but votes for Rin instead, and by D3 has decided that there are better targets and Helga is behind Rin (and conveniently tied with Tron whose score could rise at any time).

As for Helga to Tanaka, first I assume he was the misnamed Tohsaka in this post. No answer was given by Tanaka, no 'crap wrong name' from Helga, making this look like a by-the-motions effort to accuse a buddy. Plus she calls him out for the D2 hammer saying 'WHY DID YOU LYNCH LEIA MAI WAS ONLY AT TWO VOTES oh by the way vote mai', when really there wasn't much chance of a non-Leia lynch happening anyway. No-one would have held it against him, so it feels forced.

Sort of rushed now, but last two.

Tron: The only real problem I have with Tron at this point is that she gave Maya that 'you're tunneline me, stop it' argument which feels like an Appeal to Authority or something along those lines. "I know what you're thinking, but you're wrong and I'm definitely Town, so trust me" does not a Townie argument make. Besides that, I don't feel like I can pair her with any of the living players as a buddy accurately, definitely not as well as the Helga/Tanaka pair fits together.

Mai: HEIL DAT MAIDENKAMPF aside, has been on Helga pretty hard all game, and now that my JEWISH TUNNELING rage-glasses have been taken off I was probably trying too hard to look clever with the Mai case. She hasn't really done much to piss me off beyond her 'screw potential RL explanations, Helga is scum', so I think I'm willing to turn away from her now.

So yeah, honestly willing to go for a Helga-Tanaka scumpair in light of Rin being, uh, not scum. I'm still sort of mad at that, to be honest. Leia was bad enough, but two lurking Townies who don't care enough to post? Really?