The RPG Duelling League
RPGDL Games => Forum Games => Topic started by: Hunter Sopko on March 03, 2009, 10:59:40 PM
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Who controls the British Crown?
Who keep the metric system down?
We do. We do.
Who keeps Atlantis off the maps?
Who keeps the Martians under wraps?
We do. We do.
Who holds back the electric car?
Who makes Steve Guttenburg a star?
We do. We do.
Who robs cave fish of their sight?
Who rigs every Oscar night?
We do. WE DO!
The song hung over the air of Springfield for years. Somewhere in between the layer of pollution that saved the down from a comet and the smoke plume from the perpetual fire at the Springfield Tire Yard.
The Stonecutters. An ancient and secret society devoted to honor, brotherhood, and beer. When they found The Chosen One, he was supposed to lead them to glory! Instead he inflicted the horrors of civic responsibility on them. And so, the historic society that even the Freemasons feared was destroyed in one fell swoop.
They waited for their chance to return to their former glory. And they have seized it. The citizens fear the night now, and not because of vandals stealing statue heads or the small but effective mob element. It's time to bring back a hallowed tradition of Springfield's past (or present if you're a snake), the lynch mob! And much like when Mr. Burns was shot, everyone in town is a suspect, because you can never know if behind someone's everday smile lies a coldhearted number waiting to get drunk every Friday night.
RULES
-Town Must Lynch; ties are resolved via sudden death.
-Scum Must Kill
-Serial Killers Must Kill
-Days will be 48 hours, subject to extension if desired by popular demand. Post ##Extension if you want one and if at least a third of you want it it will happen.
-You will be informed if someone tries to kill you at night or if you are roleblocked, regardless of applicability or success.
-Replacements will only be permitted on days one and two. Any hardcore lurkers or people who want to quit will simply be killed after that.
-Try to limit walls of text whenever possible. Repeated walls will result in a warning, then a mod-kill.
-Play to win
-Don't be lame
-Don't edit your posts
-Do not post your role PMs
-If you're not sure, ask, especially if you want role clarifications.
PLAYERS
2. Cid AKA C. Montgomery Burns, VANILLA TOWN.
3. Yoshiken AKA Bart Simpson, VANILLA TOWN.
6. Delta AKA Apu Nahasapeemapetalon, BULLETPROOF TOWN.
9. EvilTom AKA Leonard Leonardson, TOWN LIMITED MASON.
The Lynched and the Dead:
5. Meeplelard AKA Chief Clancy Wiggum, SCUM ROLECOP, lynched Day 1.
4. Bardiche AKA Dr. Julius Hibbert, VANILLA TOWN, killed Night 1.
7. Ryogo AKA Dr. Nick Riviera, VANILLA TOWN, lynched Day 2.
10. Alex AKA Carl Carlson, TOWN LIMITED MASON, killed Night 2.
11. Andy AKA Groundskeeper Willie, VANILLA SCUM, lynched Day 3.
1. Carthrat AKA Principal Seymour Skinner, VANILLA TOWN, killed Night 3.
12. Excal AKA Milhouse Van Houten, VANILLA TOWN, lynched Day 4.
8. Xanth AKA Maggie Simpson, TOWN ONE-SHOT VIGILANTE, killed Night 4.
13. Snowfire AKA Homer Simpson, SCUM GODFATHER, lynched Day 5.
TOWN WINS!
There are 13 players, the first to 7 votes will be lynched!
GO
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Hi Everybody!
It's time to party! Lets all go get nose jobs!
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While I know its early and I don't suspect a lot will happen at first...as is pure usual early Day 1 stuff...I should say this at very least:
I'm gonna be gone for most of tonight, so yeah, don't expect to see much of me for the first few hours of this game!
That said, I'm suspicious of Strago cause he smells.
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OH THAT'S GREAT MEEPLELARD PICK ON THE GUY WHO HAS A LOT OF EMOTIONS RIGHT NOW
So, uh. I'm here. Yay, Day 1.
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Already making with the excuses, huh Meeple? Since apparently no one else is up to the task, it falls to me to cast the first stone!
##Vote: Meeple
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##VOTE: EvilTom
So far this has been a good way to start a game, and I see no reason to deviate from this course of action.
Short of frowning at the act of announcing one's departure at the game start, which surely none of us will discredit you for, I see no other course of action readily available to me. I shall await further posts, then I suppose we shall somehow get the game rolling in an orderly and chaotic fashion.
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I am also here. Call me when something happens.
inbefore omgoocrat
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So far this has been a good way to start a game, and I see no reason to deviate from this course of action.
How can you deviate from a 'course of action' that doesn't exist? ???
##Vote Rat because I always do.
I need to go find an avatar now.
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Och. The game be started!
I demand we skip joke voting and start the serious voting NAO.
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Surprise, I've successfully timed an illness with the start of the game. Doubtless this means I may miss chunks of time I'd usually have, but who needs those when I can be posting in the middle of the night like now instead when I've failed to stay asleep.
##Vote: Snowfire
Because it's clearly the best way to make new friends.
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Ok, I'm back and...
##Vote: El-Cid
You may be thinking "OMGUS!" but actually, I have sound reasoning behind this!
Already making with the excuses, huh Meeple? Since apparently no one else is up to the task, it falls to me to cast the first stone!
Notice the word he used here? Isn't it odd that of all the metaphors to use, he'd use the one with the word "Stone" in it? There's gotta be some association here!
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Och. The game be started!
I demand we skip joke voting and start the serious voting NAO.
Gimme some criteria for SERIOUS BUSINESS that actually matters when a third of the players haven't posted, and I'll get right on that.
Also, serious lack of serious voting in a post that claims to demand such. Mighty suspicious there, Andy.
~
EDIT for Meepleninja: Oh pishposh, you just choose to suspect me because I used to be a member of the Stonecutters!
...I mean...look over there, everyone!
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Wait, what? Your distraction is to point at me, the towniest townie to have ever towned? An obvious scum ploy!
##Vote: El Cid
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Because it's clearly the best way to make new friends.
Hi everybody!
Mafia? To make friends? That is about as absurd as my low, low medical bills and my near perfect record of fatalities while operating!
##Vote: Xanth
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Votecount:
Meeple (1): El-Cid
Eviltom (1): Bardiche
Carthrat (1): EvilTom
Snowfire (1): Xanth
El Cid (2): Meeple, Excal
Xanth (1): Ryogo
There are 38 hours left in Day One.
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Stonecutters? Who? What? Wait, why are we lynching people? Has anything bad happened yet? Hey, why isn't the television working? BART! He's always the one behind these things...
## VOTE... er, someone. Bart, come here you and show yourself for some loving father-son choking! Child abuse is funny!
P.S. to Stonecutters: Can you also tell me who you are? I want in again! I swear I won't mess things up with any notions of civic responsibility...
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I'm right here, Daddy-o. Cowabunga and Do the Bartman and all that. Eat my shorts, etc.
##VOTE: Andrew
He's always scum, right? Or is that an old thing? Anyway, I've got nothin' else at this point.
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I demand we skip joke voting and start the serious voting NAO.
Hey, uh, you know, Carthrat's called Nao on IRC, so, uh, why aren't you voting for him?
omgoocrat
##Vote: Carthrat
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Well, I'm around now, but go figure where we're up to. I should be around fairly normally for the evening (and probably in the middle of the night again), but just in case I do drop off for half a day or something, take this now:
##Unvote: Snowfire
Nice to see that everyone's already accounted for in some regard (except for Delta, which makes sense given what I'd expect of his schedule).
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Hi Everybody!
Yeah, I'm going out for the afternoon/night with the guys, but should be around computers for a deal of it so I SHOULD be able to get a post in here and there and keep up to date. But if I don't, I'd figure I'd let everyone know where I've disappeared to. After that, its pretty well smooth sailing.
Leaving the vote where it is though, for now. I'd rather have my vote down somewhere than nowhere if there's a chance I'm gonna be out and about, especially since its only the day 1 joke vote train coming to an end. Who knows? If I'm out, maybe Xanth will perform something on par with my latest malpractice accusation in terms of scumminess, and my day 1 joke vote will save the day!. Only time and morphine will tell!
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##Unvote: Meeple
Jokevote and all. Instead:
##Vote: Andy
For demanding serious votes and not doing anything to help produce them. It was probably a joke on his part, but I don't see much else to go on right now.
Well, FoS on Xanth for talking more about his schedule than about other people. It's nice to know and all, but it doesn't really help us.
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I'm a lazy bastard who would hardly post at all if I don't make commitments ahead of time to force myself into doing it. I'm fairly sure I've done this in at least most of the other games I've played in, so this is just me being me.
Here, you can have some random thoughts from me on other people if you wish, but I see nothing that would actually help to get things going (I know, I know, eternal dilemma):
I hate the joke phase as much as the next guy, but have more trouble with the memes than anything else, over refusing to participate in the phase at all (which I can at least see rationale for). It's all still a crapshoot no matter how you go about it and yes, a lot of it is intended in jest and good humour, but even in joke votes I prefer ones with a relevant-to-this-game train of thought (Meeple's is a good example of completely and utterly useless beyond as a joke vote, yet still fun and directed) than ones like Bardiche's and EvilTom's where there's nothing in-game about it (and Strago brushed by AIAS).
Take it or leave it as an opener. I hardly mean anything strong by it.
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Oh, the irony of jokingly demanding immediate serious votes actually starts serious votes! ON ME!
Anyhow, I look at it this way, Cid. At least I made a serious joke "vote?" >_>
With that said, let's really get this show on the road.
##Vote: Delta
Consider this a general wake-up vote. You definitely need to show up tonight, and the sooner the better.
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I'm forced to wonder whether lack of Delta posting could result in a modkill. We're closing in on twenty-four hours of game here, after all.
In any event, voting for the guy who hasn't shown up yet is a very...safe opener, Andy, and I'm not really impressed. Anyone even casually following the game should know that he's the only player who still hasn't posted. I'm not sure what point dropping a vote on him serves given that A) continued inaction on his part could result in him being nuked by the mod anyway; B) what kind of response can it even provoke from him? Someone posting for the first time this far into the first day is probably going to realize they have some catching up to do even without a pile of votes to remind them of this fact. When they haven't said anything it makes more sense to me to put your vote elsewhere, find someone you can actually question about something.
In short, "Hasn't posted yet" feels like a cop-out.
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Hmm...Delta not posting doesn't look good, no, though, no point in changing a vote if he's going to be modkilled and/or replaced (didn't they say replacements could still exist until and including Day 2, and Modkills only result after?)
I'm keeping my vote on Cid for now. I want to get the ball rolling, but I'm lacking any sort of decent angles to come from (god damn joke phases...), and at this moment, we have 2 people with 2 votes on them...with shakey reasons at best...well, I suppose at this point, a pressure vote is about the best we can have, so despite my earlier reservations in this post, only to help get things actually going, cause I've got nothing else...
##Unvote: El-Cid
##Vote: Delta
Its as good a place to start as any, really :\
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##UNVOTE
##VOTE: Meeplelard
Be decisive! I move my vote towards you because I fail to comprehend the point of going "argh don't want to vote Delta" and then voting on him anyway. Why didn't you just delete your "earlier reservations" from sooner on in the post then? Why post those useless thoughts when you discard them in the same post?
Also why profess the two people with two votes on them have "shakey reasons at best" when they are simply jokevotes?
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Seconding everything Bard just said. Delta isn't "as good a place to start as any." Putting votes on him right now is actually quite useless. Given how long he's been idle, the mod should be the one on his case, not us. I don't see what purpose it serves to try and pressure someone who's not even posted. Vote for people with questionable material, people who can actually respond, otherwise you're just laying the foundation for a lynch which is a total crapshoot in regards to the player's alignment (how can you judge this at all with no posts?) and which gives us nothing to work with tomorrow.
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I agree in principal, but don't understand why there's quite so much more of a reaction to pressure voting than normal. Meeple being quite so wet doesn't help in the slightest (and is frankly much more the problem than the vote for Delta itself), but I thought has tended to be relatively standard opening-ish play in past games. As much as I recall El Cid playing aggressive early games, this feels too hard, too soon.
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More than a day into the game and we've still got a mess of people who've done nothing past the jokevote stage. When exactly should I get aggressive, if no one else is going to? And is this objectionable because it doesn't fit your profile of my behavior, or would anyone making my argument be suspect?
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Have some thoughts on Delta. I'm not sure if he's the best lynch. Yes scum like to lurk, but for scum to skip the first day entirely? That's actively suspicious, and would mean - assuming Delta IS scum - one of: he was busy for plain vanilla reasons, is not a very good scum player by lurking too blatantly, or is pulling some kind of double bluff to insulate himself from this very logic. I'm inclined to just think "he's busy" myself.
Which is not to say we have much to work with here, granted. Strago's extremely virulent track record of basically every crime known to the 4th grade is pretty suspicious to me, but AndrewRogue was a killjoy and declared joke voting over.
##VOTE Bardiche
for making a single joke vote and not posting since. No, it isn't much to go on, but that strikes me as a more classy lurk for the aspiring stonecutter.
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EDIT: And if by "not posting since" I mean "SnowFire is blind" and missed his other post.
##UNVOTE: Bardiche
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AHEM. Yeah, Bard's post was on the second page and I was only scanning the first page. Checking again, somebody who does fit that profile is...
##VOTE: Cathrat
With the same disclaimers above about this being a vote strictly over "one post than nothing."
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Uh... well. I'm kind of surprised by this particular reaction because, let's be honest here. The DL lets lurkers slide all the time, and making sure that tabs are kept on them is always a good policy. Encouraging people who might be purposefully lurking into posting is not a bad policy, especially since, well. I didn't exactly have mountains of people to vote on for any reason at the time. Putting down a real vote for someone who does something bad... doesn't seem like that bad a plan to me, you know? Again, it keeps lurkers in the public eye and it helps generate discussion.
So yeah, I do actually feel there is some relevance to the concept of pressure votes because they keep lurkers in the public eye and make it much harder for them to sneak around and occassionally add in little "Oh look, I'm here" posts. I'd say, at the very least, it is as valid an opening approach as jumping on me for an obvious joke that plays off past jokes I've made.
Out of curiosity, what would be a more "impressive" opening to you, Cid?
Beyond that... Meeple. Man, could you provide a weaker snatch of me-too-ism? You half-heartedly claim you are going to keep your vote on Cid and then just sort of switch to Delta at the last minute. While I could see the case for doing it, you don't really put any strength behind the vote or provide much of anything. For example, why were you originally going to keep your vote on Cid and why does the Delta thing suddenly override that?
##Unvote: Delta
##Vote: Meeple
I'd like to hear the logic behind your post, as well as your thoughts on myself, Xanth and Cid.
Xanth: If you were going to throw out a vote now (not a bad idea, considering our declining time), who would you put it on?
Delta: Post!
Everyone else, say SOMETHING.
NinjaEdit: Yay! Someone else. Boo missing posts. Boo not saying much about the people who are being active right now. It is well and good to discuss Delta and other people that aren't talking, but what about discussing the people who are actively talking right now? We've got some dialogue going. Take advantage of it.
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+ Huh. I'd have expected Rat to post again by now. Odd. Especially as he's received a couple of votes. My joke vote becomes a prod vote.
+ Blah blah voting for Delta sucks/unproductive, make a real vote.
+ Only scum benefit from voting Delta.
+ Snow - too much WIFOM. He hasn't posted = real life problem/replacement/modkill.
+ Xanth - Jokevote hate isn't helping anyone :(
*waves* Hey Carl!
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Out of curiosity, what would be a more "impressive" opening to you, Cid?
Pretty much anything other than going for the easiest target in the game. Pressuring lurkers is one thing, but you can't pressure someone who's not actually in the game. When someone goes this far into the game without posting, it's the mod's concern and not ours. It's a waste of time and votes to make an issue out of it. If you'd been voting for someone who simply posted very little, or who posted frequently without saying anything of worth, I'd be right behind you in supporting it as a legitimate lurker vote. But someone who hasn't posted? What's the point? What can your vote really accomplish? If he continues to not post, then your vote does nothing to further discussion; you can't elaborate on a point as simple as "not active," all you can do is repeat it. And even if he does get active, then...your vote just tells him that you want him to say stuff. That's nice and all, but isn't it more worth our time to use votes to address more specific points, and to target players who we at know at least can respond? (It is at this point that I acknowledge that you are now actually doing this, yes.)
In sum, a vote for anyone else would've been more "impressive" than a pressure vote on someone who, for all intents and purposes, doesn't appear to be playing the game. A Delta vote is an easy way for scum to try and look like dutiful townies by going after lurkers, hence my vote for you.
(I presume you wouldn't defend actually spending a lynch on someone who's never posted, so I'll forego that entire discussion.)
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*waves* Hey Lenny!
Yeah, I got mostly nothin so far. In a shocking change from my usual Mafia tendencies, I probably won't be around too much this week and weekend, so don't expect more than a couple posts per realtime day from me.
Day 1 always kinda sucks, and this particular one feels even slower than usual what with Delta not even showing up and other people centering discussion around that (which is useless and I've nothing further to say there, either he shows up and starts playing or gets modkilled.)
Hey, Moe, who do you think we should vote?
.... eehhhhh...
##Unvote: Carthrat
##Vote: Snowfire
Snowfire gives a definite vibe of trying too hard. Getting things started is of course excellent, and LAL is also excellent, but just going down the list of players and voting folks for not posting much on day 1, rather than find an actual issue to try and start on... doesn't sit too well. Out of the vibes I've gotten from people so far, he's the scummiest.
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Generally agreed with what El Cid, and more importantly, Bard said.
Of course, I'm curious as to why Cid's vote is still on Andy even while he supports Bard's case on Meeple. Also curious is Xanth and the odd interaction going on there between those two. Not sure what's going on, but I do find it interesting that he picks the guy who didn't vote Meeple for being aggressive.
Snowfire also stands out, but I have a hard time seeing a scum lurker hunt hitting the one person whose made a solid case. So... yeah.
##Unvote, ##Vote: Xanth
Honestly, I'm not sure if this is a copout or not. But... I don't quite feel the case on Meeple, and Xanth's focus on Cid of all people leaves me uncomfortable.
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Hi Everybody!
Current votecount for my own help (Updated for the Ninjas):
Meeple (2): El-Cid, Bardiche, Andrew
Eviltom (0): Bardiche
Carthrat (2): EvilTom, SirAlex, Snowfire
Snowfire (1): Xanth, SirAlex
El Cid (1): Meeple, Excal
Xanth (1): Ryogo, Excal
AndrewRogue (2): Strago, El-Cid
Delta (1): Andrew, Meeple
Bardiche (0): SnowFire
Figured I'd get my two shiny coins in while I can!
Delta - Would've said something by now if he wasn't busy, in my opinion. I'd say he isn't a good lynch candidate right now. But when/if he does come around, he'll have some explaining to do and give me some reasoning for at least why he's been gone the whole day. He should've gotten a post in by now. But I'm with Cid on this one. Its the mod's worry now.
+ Blah blah voting for Delta sucks/unproductive, make a real vote.
+ Only scum benefit from voting Delta.
Ditto those thoughts there, Tom.
Note: Clicked preview and was ninja'd by Alex and Excal, just FYI
Anyways, moving on from the subject of Delta.
The problem with day 1 is, there really isn't much to go off of... Personally, any reason other than a joke vote is a viable reasoning at this stage, as long as you can back it up with said reasons. Sure, Snowfire may be trying hard to get things started, and it may seem a little off to some but I get the vibe of someone just reaching for some reasoning behind already shoddy enough of a voting day. Slight suspicion there, but I'm the same way with others. I don't feel Snow is giving off the scum vibe, is all. But then again, you guys know each other a helluva lot better than I, And I've haven't played much mafia, so maybe I'm missing something.
Xanth and Carth are main suspects right now for me. Meeple as a not so close third.
Reasonings:
Xanth: Gut? Something about him just doesn't sit well. Focus on Cid, but lack of a vote yet. Gave an excuse to lurk (Yeah, I know, I did that too tonight. I'll be the first to call myself on that before anyone else brings it up). I dunno, I just currently feel my vote is just as good there as it is on the other two. They're in a good position to sneak in a vote now help a mis-lynch along without raising too much suspicion. Just don't like it...
Agree with their reasoning on Meeple though. The vote on Delta is pretty standard for an opening move.
Carth: One post so far. Lets us know that he's been here and around, but hasn't taken a look at the game since which strikes me as strange. Even if it is day 1, I'm still curious as to what is going on and try to leave what my thoughts on the situation is/who is scummy. Maybe he's just busy. Maybe its his timezone (No clue where he is). Still, he's shown that he could be on at one point and time, and has failed to come around again. Not liking this. But he is starting to feel the pressure. If he's not showing up by my morning, he's gonna get my vote unless other information/cases arise.
Meeple: Not a strong case, but more so than the average player. The "I'm not gonna vote for Delta" and then doing so afterwards in teh same post just sends readers around in circles, which is not helpful for town and leads people to reasoning like mine, especially with little else to go off of. Defiantly not my #1 lynch candidate right now, but keep a pair of eyes (Or trio, in the case of Blinky) on the man to be safe.
So yeah. Xanth keeps vote for today. Just.. doesn't sit well with me.
Also, quick question that is game term related.
I hate the joke phase as much as the next guy, but have more trouble with the memes than anything else, over refusing to participate in the phase at all (which I can at least see rationale for). It's all still a crapshoot no matter how you go about it and yes, a lot of it is intended in jest and good humour, but even in joke votes I prefer ones with a relevant-to-this-game train of thought (Meeple's is a good example of completely and utterly useless beyond as a joke vote, yet still fun and directed) than ones like Bardiche's and EvilTom's where there's nothing in-game about it (and Strago brushed by AIAS).
Just curious what "AIAS" means. Can't figure it out.
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Ok, so it seems my little prod has gotten suspicion. Should have seen this coming, but my general thought was that I was trying to get SOME discussion going. And well, it worked! ...even if the discussion ended up directed mostly at me, I'm apparently good at painting myself a target.
It was a train of thought type post, for the most part, hence the wishie washiness and I guess I said more than I should have...yeah, Meeple Thoughts being transcribed = bad, etc.
In any event, I suppose this vote does absolutely nothing so...
##Unvote: Deltaflyer
However...
Excal, I think he's calling El-Cid aggressive mostly cause he's being the most vocal on the scenario. Its possible that aggressive is just poor diction here, but he's certainly talking about it more than others, so I think that's what Xanth means.
That said, though, it occurred to me that Excal has said very little, and tossed a vote on Xanth. Not so much suspicious of him as much as I'd like to hear a little more out of him. His case on Xanth feels like its mostly "eh, he's attacking El-Cid who despite agreeing didn't change his vote!" which...I dunno, seems weird? Care to elaborate if there's more to it than that?
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I would like to hear status from the mod about what's going to happen to Delta on that note.
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RYOGO NINJA!
AIAS = Andrew Is Always Scum. In joke based on how Andrew always ends up being scum (or use to) in past games.
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Firstly, from the signup thread...
I am going on a residential with the school to North Wales from the 27th to the first of March. Sorry.
Looks like someone missed something, there! Replacement or modkill necessary.
<->
Secondly.
I have had nothing interesting to post until now. Also, I don't care about prodvotes on me right now, because...
Day one is too early to get mad at people for lurking. Everything that's been said about voting Delta being pointless is essentially true. It's too easy and requires no thought, and given prior play it's virtually assured that if Delta could start posting (which he can't, but nobody noticed that.) he'll soon start digging his own hole anyway. Andy does have a point about keeping lurkers in the public eye... but... this early in the game? There hasn't been time to lurk. Also don't really like how he asked Cid what an impressive opening is, since that avenue of discussion isn't going to net us scum at this point. I'm pretty ambivalent on Andy overall, though, since while I might not like a lot of what he's said, I do agree with his actual vote.
Neither Snowfire or Meeple look terribly great, for reasons already mentioned; the lack of ability to lurk and the RELENTLESS HUNTING of the same is doing Snowfire no favours, but I do find Meeple's tag onto Delta after so definitively saying he wants to stay where he is somewhat odder. Therefore, ##Vote: Meeple
I don't really get why people (re: Excal) are upset at Xanth. Nothing else to report at this stage.
Also now that I've posted I expect all the votes on me to spontaneously pop out of existence. Hence demonstrating the ultimate silliness of prodvotes on day one. Again.
Ninja: You were trying to get discussion by voting for a person who wasn't here after tagging onto someone elses case for him. That is not discussion-prodding, Meeple!
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Ninja 2: Geezus, Ryogo had more to say about me than either of the other two people he mentioned who'd actually made posts, including the one he's voting for! It was a jokevote earlier, too! Now it must be a real vote, but I can't understand why at all!
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It IS day 1 and all, Carthrat. Honestly, it triggers more flags in my head if someone has said "Hi!" and then nothing; than if they've said nothing at all. Good to see you around though, really does clear up a lot of my suspicions. But not all. No one gets off free in Mafia.
And my vote on Xanth was a joke vote originally, but like I said, reaching for ideas here. It's just gut here, and its what I trust. Especially with little to no evidence to prove otherwise or towards anyone else. Especially when I don't feel the case on Meeple yet. At least for now.
Just curious though, Carthrat. What don't you understand about my vote on Xanth? Why is it something you can't wrap your head around?
As for Delta... It says he's away from Feb 27 to March 1... It's currently the 5th where I am, So I dunno if I'm missing something there, but he SHOULD be around, in theory :S
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Ok, so it seems my little prod has gotten suspicion.
In any event, I suppose this vote does absolutely nothing so...
Excal, I think he's calling El-Cid aggressive mostly cause he's being the most vocal on the scenario. Its possible that aggressive is just poor diction here, but he's certainly talking about it more than others, so I think that's what Xanth means.
Cited the things I find important. Anyway.
I'm keeping my vote on you for the time being. I'm... unsure what made you suddenly decide that your "prod vote" is useless. Decisiveness, as I said, is important right now, and it still feels wishy-washy what you do here.
I cited the last part because I am befuddled why you would be clearing up linguistic and/or argumentative differences between Excal and Xanth. As I feel that you should only protect someone of whose alignment you are certain, and given that townies do not know anyone's alignment but their own (I will not consider masons at this point), I find it odd for you to defend someone else and explain away their behaviour.
Xanth is perfectly capable of doing so himself.
I note you ignore Andrew's request for you to part with some information coupled with his vote on you, so I'd like to hear why you ignored it.
For those reasons my vote stays on you.
I want to mention as well that SnowFire befuddles me. The way I see it, the post firsts chastises Andrew for chasing lurkers who haven't posted, only to... chase an alleged lurker yourself. It also feels like a little panic-mongering by ascribing the various effects Delta's present behaviour could have while knowing all too well we have no way of telling which one is the relevant one.
Also, voting people for posting only once and then not again strikes me as incredibly silly since... guess what? You've effectively made two posts in this day as well, meaning you fit your own criteria for classic scum lurking behaviour!
-
Current votecount:
Meeple (2): Cid, Bard, Andy
Eviltom (0): Bard
Carthrat (2): EvilTom, Alex, Snowfire
Snowfire (1): Xanth, Alex
El Cid (0): Meeple, Excal
Xanth (2): Ryogo, Excal
AndrewRogue (2): Strago, Cid
Delta (0): Andrew, Meeple
Bardiche (0): SnowFire
There are 17 hours left in Day One
-
People I'm not too happy with right now:
-Meeple. I've gone on at length about how useless it is to vote Delta at this point. Meeple's problem is doing this in a wishy-washy post that starts off saying he's not going to vote Delta and ends with him doing just that.
-Snowfire. I can see the case here, for all that it's not one I've focused on. As per Alexpost, I find it easy to read his slip-up with Bard as scum going down the list of low-posters and overlooking the most recent post in their eagerness to look like a good, lurker-hunting townie. Invoking WIFOM on Delta is also bad; by that point, speculating about the guy was pointless.
-Xanth. Last post he made was a block of metagaming. Someone acting differently than they have before shouldn't necessarily be cause for suspicion. However, if you must apply metagaming, expect to be subject to it yourself as well. In regards to that, this caught my eye:
I'm a lazy bastard who would hardly post at all if I don't make commitments ahead of time to force myself into doing it. I'm fairly sure I've done this in at least most of the other games I've played in, so this is just me being me.
Actually, that's quite the opposite of what I'm used to seeing from you. The first game I saw you in, you were a voluminous poster who pretty much ran Town. However, "Player X isn't playing like the Player X I know!" alone isn't enough to suspect someone. What really gets me about the above quote is that it reads like an excuse to maintain a minimal and restrained level of contribution, and I don't like that at all.
~
Quoth the canuck:
Of course, I'm curious as to why Cid's vote is still on Andy even while he supports Bard's case on Meeple.
Because Deltavoting really does read as an obvious scum move to me and Andy still hasn't said a lot that wasn't first posited by someone else. However, we've got just half a day left now, so I'm going to break the deadlock.
##Unvote: Andy
##Vote: Meeple
Primarily for that post at the end of the first page. See everything I've previously said about Deltavoting being a textbook scum move, then add Meeple contradicting himself within the space of one post.
-
Apologies for my absense. I was banned from using the computer by my dad. Even now, I am sorta disobeying him.
Anyways, I will be more active from now on.
I am going on a residential with the school to North Wales from the 27th to the first of March. Sorry.
Looks like someone missed something, there! Replacement or modkill necessary.
In case you hadn't noticed, you posted this on the 5th of March. The game STARTED on the 3rd. What.
I'll post more when I get back from school.
Oh yea, and Thank you come again!
-
And Delta has once again proven that somewhere down the line, his ancestry is Swiss.
Anyways, people have asked me to solidify my positions. The thing is, I can't, really. It's still day one, and I'm still grasping at straws trying to figure out who's not feeling right, and why I feel that way. And, honestly, the fact is that Xanth, well. Even when he's lazy he's adept at talking a good game. He's not doing that, and I'm feeling that's significant somehow. And so, my vote's on him because, hey, that might provoke something.
Not entirely sure how I feel about Cid either, given he basically did the same thing as Andy did, and used that as a reason to stay on him. His most recent post, especially the bit about Xanth, does make me feel better, since he did put some of my worries into words. But, eh. Still watching him, and, just because I suspect someone doesn't mean they're not making valid points.
Not much to say on Bard, nor on Meep/Snow that wasn't said before. And everyone else just hasn't said enough to really register. Which, oddly, makes me wonder about Ryogo, since I know he's been posting.
EDIT: Ryogo reread, objections abated, he looks fine. Hopefully will be back in morning for lynch.
-
Okay, so day one is rather worryingly short for me now. I have like half an hour now to push as much out as I can, and then only ~5pm-6pm GMT free otherwise. Apologies for brevity on anything here and disorder, but I want to look at as much as possible.
First off, so I don't forget about it: ##VOTE: Tom
For what I see as higher profile contentless lurking, which no one's looked at otherwise (no hate for the joke stuff, mate, no worries).
At this point I would tentatively back a push on Meeple. I can't really claim any initiative there, but better to get this down now than later when my final vote goes down. I'm less worried about the vote on Delta itself as the thoroughly wet manner in which it happened, which is both the responsibility-dodging and balancing act I dislike from scum. The latest post doesn't ease it, with the only new feeler being a random poke at Excal which, while being of minor interest in itself, seems like a completely arbritrary post to comment solely on.
El Cid: no, it wasn't metagaming. That part was in defence, if anything, and I guess from this response I shouldn't have mentioned it at all. It was meant as 'I find this aggressive behaviour unsettling (in and of itself for what it is, no player context or metagaming attached). Before someone informs me, I do know this player plays aggressively anyway, but that context doesn't ease me.'
And to your own spoonful of metagaming, for what it's worth I had all of the time in the world for my first game, and it's not otherwise particularly noteworthy because I do regulate myself well enough by leaving promises all over the place. I sure don't expect (nor deserve) any different/special treatment as a result.
Can't say I'm happy that you'd make an argument against me of 'metagaming, and [metagaming here]', but hey, day one, I'm the bottom of that list, and maybe this will clear what looks to be a misunderstanding to me.
Right, go figure I'm already out of time. Don't like two votes sitting on me for admitted 'gut', Ryogo's more worrying due to quite how wavering it is despite being placed over Meeple's case (have no (well, less) problem if it's a placeholder for discussion, as mine for Tom's somewhat is - if pressed I feel worse of Meeple than Tom for the seeming lurking). Delta is still a complete non-entity after one post and should still consider being replaced if that's the level he can manage, but thanks for at least clarifying your situation. Happy with a whole bunch of you so far. Haven't actually read all of the longer posts, sucks.
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Huh. I thought it was the... 27th of march. My mistake, apologies. General points of 'don't bother with lurkers this early' stands. Day 1 lurking is hard to judge until day 2.
<->
Ryogo, I don't understand your case on Xanth because there isn't one, I suppose. It feels like there is a clear reason in Meeple's play to vote him, one that you've acknowledged, whereas you're after Xanth on mostly gut, with a couple of vaugely-defined excuses, and I can't see how they top the other so much. Given that he is your original jokevote, it reads far more like laziness. Or trepidation. The "I just currently feel my vote is just as good there as it is on the other two." also seems like a copout.
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Rat, your gruff and assuming attitude always makes you look scummy to me. "Now that I've posted, you'll unvote me." Well yeah. But I got you to post, when before you were not. So my efforts were not futile. Or at least I like to think that. ##Unvote: Rat
Ok, a lot of discussion on Xanth going on, so I may as well provide my 2c on the matter.
1.
The following comments relate to this post: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52380#msg52380
Everyone's already gone over it already, but for the sake of my thought processes -
I'm a lazy bastard who would hardly post at all if I don't make commitments ahead of time to force myself into doing it.
That's a really odd thing to say, considering previous track record, both overall here at the DL, and on this very page. Posting 3 times in the first 21 posts of the game - 1/7, a lot more than others. The evidence contradicts what you say. This is only important in that you could be setting yourself up with an excuse for lurking later, but I don't see it as a big thing.
but even in joke votes I prefer ones with a relevant-to-this-game train of thought (Meeple's is a good example of completely and utterly useless beyond as a joke vote, yet still fun and directed) than ones like Bardiche's and EvilTom's where there's nothing in-game about it (and Strago brushed by AIAS).
Useless metagame filler about who had the best jokevotes. Well, Xanth's own post here is as useless as any of the jokevotes he critisizes..
2.
Then in his post recent post First off, so I don't forget about it: ##VOTE: Tom
For what I see as higher profile contentless lurking
If you were truly building an argument on someone, I find it unlikely you'd forget to vote for them. From the way this argument is laid out, it looks more like an attempt to justify a vote on me, rather than a vote following any real suspicion.
Secondly - High profile contentless lurking? Either lurking or posting fluff, you can't accuse me of both (and I've done neither). Really grasping at straws here to throw something at me.
3.
Others' opinions on Xanth I'd like to comment on-
The first game I saw you in, you were a voluminous poster who pretty much ran Town. [...] What really gets me about the above quote is that it reads like an excuse to maintain a minimal and restrained level of contribution, and I don't like that at all.
Xanth, well. Even when he's lazy he's adept at talking a good game. He's not doing that, and I'm feeling that's significant somehow.
I agree with both these positions, but I go a step further and combine them. Xanth is usually pretty pro-town, and actively so. But so far he's done nothing other than try to drag others down to buoy himself up. That's not scumhunting, that's surviving.
"It's day 1 blah blah" isn't an excuse. Whinging about it being day 1 (as filler or an excuse) is bad.
4.
Meeple/Scattergun
At this point I would tentatively back a push on Meeple.
This looks more like "if Tomtrain fails, Meeple is a sure go" - survival tactic perhaps.
Right, go figure I'm already out of time. Don't like two votes sitting on me for admitted 'gut', Ryogo's more worrying due to quite how wavering it is despite being placed over Meeple's case (have no (well, less) problem if it's a placeholder for discussion, as mine for Tom's somewhat is - if pressed I feel worse of Meeple than Tom for the seeming lurking). Delta is still a complete non-entity after one post and should still consider being replaced if that's the level he can manage, but thanks for at least clarifying your situation.
Xanth seems pretty worried about those two votes. It's also odd that he admits his vote on me is a placeholder for discussion and that he's more suspicious of Meeple - why not just vote Meeple? 'Seeming lukring' - is that imagined lurking? Wishful lurking? There's no solid stance here.
Happy with a whole bunch of you so far. Haven't actually read all of the longer posts, sucks.
Blanket statements that signify nothing are meaningless. More padding and fluff, to round out a post that lacks real content. Admitting he hasn't been reading the thread properly is also concerning, especially as a throwaway comment.
So yeah, now that I look at Xanth in detail, I can see why people are finding problems with him, and I'm agreeing. I probably won't be awake when deadline hits, so I'll be putting down a vote before I go to sleep. I want to look at everyone else first, but at this point Xanth is looking worthy of receiving a vote.
+TLDR; Xanth has been posting fluff, accusing others of posting fluff &/or lurking, and then admits he voted me as a 'placeholder', but he'd rather vote Meeple.
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Hmm. Some blowback on my post. To respond to that first...
EvilTom: I had a trip off to Google-land to look up WIFOM (http://"http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Wifom"), and... okay, I see what you're saying, this kind of logic can turn into sophistry to mislead people. That said, I think/hope that a certain amount of logical "let's examine the possibilities" is fine - I learned Mafia at Math Games Night in college for the math majors & friends, and this kind of logic was used by all sides.
Bardiche: The comment I made about Andrew was a joke, to clarify. And panic-mongering?!
El Cid / Cathrat In general: I'm sorry if I restated what you found obvious, but it seemed like a relevant issue at the time when the only train going was against Delta and it wasn't clear to me if people would listen to El Cid's post poo-pooing it. And it's a perfectly legitimate town move to throw "light" votes just to get things going, especially on Day 1. Speaking of which...
##UNVOTE: Cathrat
Also I need to get to work, out of time to offer a good vote myself, so can I ask for like a 1-hour extension? Not sure if I'll be back from work at 6:00 if that's when voting closes, but 7:00 should be fine.
-
Ok so I had a re-read (between playing L4D), and I can see why people are annoyed with Meeps. But for me the worst thing isn't the Delta vote, it's the attempted justification:
Ok, so it seems my little prod has gotten suspicion. Should have seen this coming, but my general thought was that I was trying to get SOME discussion going. And well, it worked! ...even if the discussion ended up directed mostly at me, I'm apparently good at painting myself a target.
'Har har, I totally meant to do that!' = sounding pretty lame.
However, taking into account how Meep has played previous games, Xanth's actions look a lot worse. So choosing between the two of them, I go with:
##Vote: Xanth
That said, Bard & El Cid are looking pretty good to me.
Bard has been clear, cutting and concise (go alliteration). If I had to pick most towny, he'd be up there. http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52474#msg52474 - found a good point on Meeple I hadn't noticed.
El Cid also though - http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52478#msg52478 in particular is a good post; he looks at a bunch of angles, some original - ie. following up Andrew.
I'm obviously unsure about people I haven't played much with before - Snow/Ryogo - so trying to figure them out still.
Snow:I think/hope that a certain amount of logical "let's examine the possibilities" is fine
Have some thoughts on Delta. I'm not sure if he's the best lynch. Yes scum like to lurk, but for scum to skip the first day entirely? That's actively suspicious, and would mean - assuming Delta IS scum - one of: he was busy for plain vanilla reasons, is not a very good scum player by lurking too blatantly, or is pulling some kind of double bluff to insulate himself from this very logic. I'm inclined to just think "he's busy" myself.
WIFOM because: it took you about 5 sentences to come to the conclusion that Delta hadn't posted yet so there was nothing we could do. Useless conjecture = fluff.
It was a minor point, but anything is good in the early game.
I'm off to bed, bye!
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Bardiche: The comment I made about Andrew was a joke, to clarify. And panic-mongering?!
I toss around panic-mongering a bit too quickly I suppose. I meant that your post read, to me, like, "Oooh this and this could be all the possibilities and we'll never know!!"
And the Andrew comment? I am a massive idiot. I cannot seem to recall where I read that and why I mentioned Andrew. I'll get back to you if I can on that, but for now consider the argument null and void until I can clarify it. I don't quite understand it myself anymore either.
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Not entirely sure how I feel about Cid either, given he basically did the same thing as Andy did, and used that as a reason to stay on him. His most recent post, especially the bit about Xanth, does make me feel better, since he did put some of my worries into words. But, eh. Still watching him, and, just because I suspect someone doesn't mean they're not making valid points.
Where did I do "the same thing as Andy?" I'm not sure what you're referring to here. Perhaps you mean this--
##Unvote: Meeple
Jokevote and all. Instead:
##Vote: Andy
For demanding serious votes and not doing anything to help produce them. It was probably a joke on his part, but I don't see much else to go on right now.
--in which case I maintain that it was as solid a reason as could be found at that point in the game. However, contrary to your analysis, it was never a reason to "stay on" Andy. Note that Andy's Deltavoting became a much stronger reason to suspect him once he did it (all of two posts later) and that I focused on that thereafter.
~
Response to Xanth:
El Cid: no, it wasn't metagaming. That part was in defence, if anything, and I guess from this response I shouldn't have mentioned it at all. It was meant as 'I find this aggressive behaviour unsettling (in and of itself for what it is, no player context or metagaming attached). Before someone informs me, I do know this player plays aggressively anyway, but that context doesn't ease me.'
Thanks for the clarification. However, I'm forced to ask: what is intrinsically wrong with "aggressive behavior?" I don't mean to start a whole playstyle discussion here, it's just that you question one course of action and offer no real alternative to it.
Also:
Haven't actually read all of the longer posts, sucks.
Comments like this aren't encouraging. Setting aside your admitted proclivity for self-deprecation (which by itself is not the problem here) all the talk about how much time you have, about you being lazy, etcetera, would be much better spent actually scumhunting. Your posts have contained quite a lot of fluff this game. Talking about your schedule and whatnot is fundamentally useless. It doesn't help us hunt scum and it doesn't really tell us anything about your alignment. You might not have all the time in the world, but I'm sure something useful could be posted in place of these comments if you wished to do so.
~
Other stuff:
-Delta is back, yay and so forth. Still need him to say stuff about the game itself, but I'm still inclined to consider a train on him to be nonviable barring something highly egregious in whatever content he eventually provides. It's just too late in the day to start focusing on someone who just got here.
-Strago hasn't posted since the jokevote phase. This is bad.
-Vote stays on Meeple for the Delta vote, the poor attempt to justify it, and him having nothing useful to say in response to the pressure. "I'm apparently good at painting myself a target." Sure, but being Meeple doesn't give you a free pass to make scummy errors. Meeple and Xanth look like our best options for lynching today.
-
##UNVOTE: Andrew
*waves*
Cowabunga, dudes. Only time I really get to post is as work. Usually this is fine and dandy, but things have been busier than usual this week. Stupid gainful employment.
Main suspects right now are Meeple and Tom.
Meeple for reasons that people have covered pretty well: his immediate flip from... what would be a fairly solid (if lazy) scum tac of trying to get momentum going on a non-present player... to "WELL GOOD THING I ONLY DID THAT TO GENERATE DISCUSSION" looks bad. It’s such a lovely scumscreen of a phrase, especially when it seems like as much of a retcon as it does right here.
Tom's tac-nuke on Xanth... well, this is metagaming, and that is horrible, but I feel like I've seen Tom do this before: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52509#msg52509 (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52509#msg52509)
Specifically, what he does is take note of a person who’s already caught at least some amount of flak, and acts all innocuous while he lists a fairly long and exhaustive set of bullet points against them. And then by the end of the post he’s apparently convinced himself that yeah, huh, they look sort of bad; but given the length and form of the post, it sure seems to me like he’s been pretty effectively gunning for them since the beginning.
Given the Day1ness of Day 1, I’m not sure which of them looks scummier to me. Probably Meeple, since my problem with Tom has a fair bit of meta-analysis wrapped up in it, of a kind that I generally try to avoid.
El Cid: no, it wasn't metagaming. That part was in defence, if anything, and I guess from this response I shouldn't have mentioned it at all. It was meant as 'I find this aggressive behaviour unsettling (in and of itself for what it is, no player context or metagaming attached). Before someone informs me, I do know this player plays aggressively anyway, but that context doesn't ease me.'
Thanks for the clarification. However, I'm forced to ask: what is intrinsically wrong with "aggressive behavior?" I don't mean to start a whole playstyle discussion here, it's just that you question one course of action and offer no real alternative to it.
Argh no not this discussion I agree with El Cid let's not get sidetracked by this nonsense oof kill it with fire.
I need to work some more right now, but I'll be around throughout the day and expect to have more thoughts.
-
Okay. So, now that school has ended, I am free until the end of the game day. Go me.
Meeple worries me, for flipping rather quickly from arbitary 'tactics'. He seemed to try and focus on me (no, I am not OMGUS'ing) when there was actually a multitude of reasons I may not be present. But focusing on me, when nobody knew if I was able to get on before the end of the day is worrying. Meeple appeared to want to waste town's vote, when as someone else said, a Modkill would work just as well.
Tom has metagamed in the past, however to pass this off as being Tom behavior would also be metagaming in itself. I think Tom is less suspicious than Meeple at the moment to me, since I am almost afraid of metagaming against Tom.
That said, Xanth also looks slightly suspicious. He appears to be playing quite strangely, for him at least. (metagaming, I know, but...) He said that he is a 'lazy b******' when actually, he posted, as someone else mentioned, 1/7 of the posts on the page.
Currently, I believe that Meeple is more suspicious. Being able to paint yourself as a target doesn't justify painting yourself as a target, and your poor justifications are not helping.
Xanth's behavior is worrying. He may be attempting to set himself up to lurk later. In any case, ##FoS: Xanth
Also, ##Vote: Meeple
Oh, and yes.
Thank you, come again!
-
Meeple (4): Cid, Bard, Andy, Cid, Delta
Eviltom (1): Bard, Xanth
Carthrat (0): EvilTom, Alex, Snowfire
Snowfire (1): Xanth, Alex
El Cid (0): Meeple, Excal
Xanth (3): Ryogo, Excal, EvilTom
AndrewRogue (0): Strago, Cid
Delta (0): Andrew, Meeple
Bardiche (0): SnowFire
There are 6 hours left in Day One!
-
I'm here again, and will likely be around more or less till deadline. Currently I am willing to vote Snowfire or Xanth.
- Everything I said about Snowfire earlier still holds, and is amplified by his unvoting, not talking about anyone he finds scummy and leaving a note that he may not even be back or have a vote down at deadline. Whaaaaat? Snow, who do you think is scum? Everyone else, why do I see him getting a free pass for this?
- Xanth... Tom makes a really good point about him not actually voting Meeple. Meeple stands out to me as the stupid-not-scummy day 1 case, and while I'm not happy with the train in that direction I'm REALLY not happy about Xanth seeming to egg the train on without actually getting on it. Posts like Strago's latest kinda weird me out on the subject as well, in fact it does indeed seem to me like Strago's dismissing the case because it comes from Tom.
I'm not in support of a Meeple lynch at all. The whole discussion about him still seems to revolve around him voting Delta, which is something I can actually see as more likely to come from town than scum, and a really poor case even for day 1. Dumb thing to do, yes, and his attempts justifications don't read well since it is pretty unjustifiable, but the action itself isn't scummy to me, nor are his defenses considering how he's being trained for it.
-
Right, back with just under an hour to spare for this.
I like how now several people have jumped on to the 'lazy bastard' thing as some sort of key evidence. El Cid was talking about how I keep on listing my schedule, so I was explaining that I do it to motivate me to post more.
Cid: I don't want to derail conversation by going into it much, but it wasn't the aggressive nature in general (which I support for at least the most part), it was what looked like setting fires in as many places as possible to see what would burn fastest. That's to say it felt like you were hitting people for damn near anything rather than with a method behind it.
Quickly on Tom's rather taxing attempt:
1) As above. Misreading and blowing it up, grand.
2) First half is the rather acidic fluff I'm getting used to. For the actual point here, surely I don't need to get into the concept of flying under the radar, right? If scum are to fly under the radar, it's from posting minimal content rather than not at all. You had fit the model of actually trying to post without actually saying anything. Your second post here (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52430#msg52430) reeks of 'hey guys, I'm trying' whilst not actually posting anything. Is that so hard to understand?
3) Fluff. If anything, given that you've decided to rely so much on meta-gaming already, you might want to refer yourself to the My HiME game where you made the exact same 'this isn't the pro-town Xanth I know' argument against me when I turned out to be, in fact, a relatively lazy member of town (yes, before you remind me, I know you were town there as well).
4) a) if there are multiple trains at the end, it is important people know ahead of time which I'm likely to follow. So yes, announcing my stance on Meeple is rather important (although not as things stand, given it's looking like me versus him at the moment).
b) I expected (and received) far more for a new train of thought than I could have got for stalely dropping another early vote on Meeple.
So with this probably being my last post of the day it'd probably be most sensible for me to just swap my vote to Meeple and be done with it, but now Tom's jumped off the deep end enough for me to keep it on him and push for that.
After initial worries from his second post, dare I call his third post a rather exasperated OMGUS? As much as it's been padded, it's mostly minor fluff or random (and outdated) metagaming, and it's all told in a rather acidic tone to make it seem more concrete and my own case baseless. I'd care less if the volume matched the content, but it reads far worse when it reads like it's been buffed up as much as possible. It's like you care far more about getting me lynched than you do about being sure you're right.
I do, however, agree with his assessment of Bardiche. One of the things I was in a rush to say as I was flying out of the door this morning was that he's performing far and beyond what I remember from the previous couple of games.
Delta still reads like zero impact, and now seems to have a free pass.
Meeple hasn't been back.
Snowfire is the other outlier, marking what would be a clumsier scum attempt at low content than my initial claim of Tom, given little direct game offerings.
Alex ninja: I'm also willing to leave things open to bring Meeple back from the lead if possible at this point (assuming he does show up again), even though it risks my own neck at this point.
I'll try my best to be back in time for the deadline, but I'll probably miss it by like ten minutes unless we get a short extension. I'm not asking for it unless people are desperate for my opinion in particular.
-
Not moving my vote off Meeple until he's satisfied me with a response.
Since we are nearing the deadline, I've taken the liberty of examining the other cases which seem most prevalent to get a lynch, namely Xanth and Snowfire.
Snowfire:
I can accept a lynch on Snowfire based on how useless he's been so far. However, inactivity grades lower to me on the MUST LYNCH radar than someone who's confusing and befuddling. Snowfire, I really, really, really cannot say with good conscience that I think you have been any bit productive to Day 1. Please either change this with all rapid haste or I'll shift my undivided lynching attention to you.
Xanth:
Please stop referring to previous games and whatnot. It is not relevant to this game, and arguments like "OH BUT LAST GAME" just don't work for me. If you want to get lynched today, by all means continue with it. Also stop using sarcasm. "I like how people jump on blah blah lazy bastard blah blah key evidence". Well shit, it's Day 1 and you're constantly excusing yourself, what are you thinking? Ridiculing people with sarcasm because they find an act of yours suspicious doesn't sit well with me. For all that, I find it pretty ridonculous as well that we need so many updates on your sparse schedule; others post less than you do and they don't keep excusing themselves!
At this point,
Meeple > Xanth > Snowfire on my "suspect of scum" list. Other candidates aren't listed as it isn't pertinent right now, but I do feel Delta's being his usual confusing self. The others haven't left a strong enough impact on me for me to pursue something actively. I'm not interested in throwing around minor suspicions so strongly on Day 1, I'll save that for after the flip and Day 2.
-
First off, sorry for being away for a while, but school + suddenly feeling sick + other minor crap...well, you know the drill.
Anyway, first off, Wall's of Texts already? Geez, I've been purposely trying to avoid them and I thought it was stated "keep them limited!" Argh!
...ok, that's out of my system.
I was trying to justify, for lack of a better word, Xanth's actions on calling El-Cid the aggressive one mostly cause that was how I perceived it. I'm not strongly defending him the way I jumped to Shale's defense (where neither of us was scum, mind) in Suicide Mafia. I'm mostly saying "I think by this he means this" and hoping that wasn't Excal's only reason. Yes, yes, Xanth can explain himself, but
Excal has submitted a reason for voting Xanth since I requested one...and his reason is basically "I don't have a good one cause its day 1." Hate to say it, but I really can't argue that; I'm guilty of the same thing and its hurting me cause I chose a worse target, it seems, but yeah, on day 1, who goes first is pretty random. Someone does something remotely "suspicious" and it escalates from there. You have to spark conversation somehow. Apparently, my act that made me suspicious did exactly that...no, this does NOT justify my actions, I'm just indicating the irony of the situation I put myself in.
No, I didn't mean to get people to target me, I just wanted to break the joke phase; I just apparently went about it in the dumbest way possible. I can't justify my attack on Delta beyond "Meh, lets go after the guy who hasn't posted" and it was a bonehead move, and has gotten me painted. I'm not trying to paint myself as a target (if I'm reading Delta's post right)
As I noted, Wishie Washieness was more me having odd train of thought, and deciding post it down. I mean, Marge did that same thing in the episode with Jay Sherman and this is Simpson's Mafia!
*letter to Jay*
"Marge, is this a pimple or a boil?"
"Homer can't you see I'm...oh, darn, now you just made me write that!"
*continue letter*
...ok, joke aside, I probably should have worded my entire post better.
Anyway, defense off, onto other stuff!
Xanth's standing out to me right now partially cause of what looks like finger pointing. No one else at the moment really sticks out in an particular way. I don't know how he plays in the past, but...well, I can't really much to what Tom said. I'm really not liking this "Meeple's more suspicious, but I'm voting for Tom!" thing. If I truly DID feel suspicious to him, more so than Tom, why isn't the vote on me?
That and the fact that I have a survival instinct...
##Vote: Xanth
And no, Xanth; scum can fly under the radar in a variety of ways. One such way is Smoke screening, as in, post a lot, but say very little. I feel like your posts are, as Tom noted, mostly fluff.
Other stuff:
Delta Posting = Good! Also seems like he had legit RL issues to boot. Also good to know he's working on a somewhat irregular (no offense) time zone, so yeah. His one post doesn't really give me much of any vibes; he came in late to the game, and has to work from there, so its understandable.
Alex hasn't said a lot, but from what I recall, Alex tends to not say a lot on Day 1 cause there isn't much to say. Day 2 is when he starts to actually do stuff. What he has said, though, doesn't stick out.
I don't like Strago saying "Meeple's Post si a retcon to generate discussion!" Um, shit, yes, it was done for that purpose? What do you think the point of a "pressure vote" is? Why do you think I said "Its as good a place to start as any" (even if it apparently was a horrible place to start)?
Cid bugs me for claiming I had poor reasons to justify my votes:
-Vote stays on Meeple for the Delta vote, the poor attempt to justify it, and him having nothing useful to say in response to the pressure. "I'm apparently good at painting myself a target." Sure, but being Meeple doesn't give you a free pass to make scummy errors. Meeple and Xanth look like our best options for lynching today.
That's not what I said. That "I'm good at painting myself a target" is just a side point. Great way to strawman the post. I explained why I did it, and again, how do you justify a "lets get the ball rolling" vote beyond that? In fact, you've in the past slammed me for not taking any sort of initiative, and voted me on it in the past. Metagaming? Yes, but now you're contradicting your own advice. I really don't follow this logic here; I try to do SOMETHING, and now suddenly I feel suspicious cause I did it poorly? This feels more like "Meeple's playing idiotically, therefor scum!" rather than "Meeple's playing scummy."
How am I suppose to justify a vote that, as I stated in the post I voted on him, existed purely to help pressure him? Bad tactic, maybe! But I said why I did it, and you're saying "Not good enough, SCUM!" Its putting someone's back against the wall for a minor slip, I feel.
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Okay, so wall of text with a lot of jokes, personal feelings, dramatizing etcetera.
Can you dumb down for me why I should move my vote off of you and satisfy myself with another target instead? At the very least, can you dumb down why I should not here and now use our last remaining hour or so to push for your lynch with zeal?
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Meeple: Hasn't really done anything to make me feel better about him. When put under pressure, he backs off of Delta and proceeds to do... nothing but make excuses, ignore my question and not really add anything to the debates. He off-handedly addresses some stuff that came up, but doesn't really do anything to advance discussion or make any impact whatsoever. This kind of play really isn't reassuring, and I think he's still one of the strongest candidates given he's really... not made an effort to do anything or try to dispel any doubts.
Xanth: ...mrm. He's drawing a lot of attention to his very limited posting time, which yes, at one level is fine and dandy. On the other hand, though, it simply provides room to make excuses for problematic actions over the course of the game and, frankly, feels like you are preemptively trying to bring your excuses to the forefront so that you can just point back at them later. This sort of thing does NOTHING to help town. Further, given the earlier comment about agreeing in principal with Cid on Pressure votes, and then opting to vote Tom over Meeple (despite agreeing that the latter seemed worse to him). He does explain this, but at the same time... that vote really feels more fillery than anything, given Tom wasn't the only individual lurking at the time.
Snow: Uh... yeah. Alex pretty much sums this one up perfectly. Half-heartedly trolling for low content posters (and failing at it too, mind) and then unvoting and leaving nothing of substance in the wake. This a townie read does not make. At all. I'd put him right there with Meeple for lynchability.
Carth: The massive date flub he made stands out to me, but that's really all I have there. Not enough to really run with today, but certainly something to keep an eye on in the future.
At this point in time... mrf. All three of Snow/Xanth/Meeple are solid candidates in my opinion. Each has some pretty major flaws in their day one posting. I'd be satisfied with a lynch of any of them, really, but I'd probably put it at Meep => Snow > Xanth at this point.
Ninja'd: Blar. Meeple post. Honestly, I'm not seeing a lot here. General excuse for being MIA, a moderate defense of his actions (that doesn't really cover anything important, like why he didn't really do anything but unvote Delta), jumping on the most likely opposing bandwagon and a bit of scattershotting to hit on as much as he can in as thin a way as he can. At this juncture, wasting a good chunk of posting on a joke doesn't really fill me with confidence either. Just... blar. This post really doesn't do anything to alleviate my suspicions, nor does it really provide any new and exciting insight to the table.
My opinions stay pretty much exactly as stated pre-ninja, with Meep maybe gaining a bit on Snow in lynchability. Definitely staying where I am for the time being.
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Cid: I don't want to derail conversation by going into it much, but it wasn't the aggressive nature in general (which I support for at least the most part), it was what looked like setting fires in as many places as possible to see what would burn fastest. That's to say it felt like you were hitting people for damn near anything rather than with a method behind it.
At that point in time I'd really only begun making serious accusations, and they both stemmed from Delta votes. I don't see how this qualifies as throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks. This is pretty flimsy, Xanth.
Okay, not a lot of time left here. Meeple fights back with Drama, which is ineffectual but still warrants a response. Will try to get one out before the day ends, but in the interest of saving time I will say that everything in Bard's last couple posts is spot-on in my opinion.
-
Meeple (4): Cid, Bard, Andy, Cid, Delta
Eviltom (1): Bard, Xanth
Carthrat (0): EvilTom, Alex, Snowfire
Snowfire (1): Xanth, Alex
El Cid (0): Meeple, Excal
Xanth (4): Ryogo, Excal, EvilTom, Meeple
AndrewRogue (0): Strago, Cid
Delta (0): Andrew, Meeple
Bardiche (0): SnowFire
There are 0 hours left in Day One!
We are now in SUDDEN DEATH! The choices are Meeple and Xanth! GO!
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Since the day is almost over, I might as well just say this:
ROLE CLAIM TIME!
I'm Chief Wiggum. Unsurprisingly, I'm the cop. I...don't have much else to say, unfortunately.
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ASDF
"Deadline at 6," right, so I take a nap and wake up at 5. Except that's Soppy's 6, not my 6.
Rant goes here about how Meeple and Snowfire did the exact same thing today, except Meeple admitted he was wrong and tried to get away while Snowfire just walked off whistling and everyone ignored it. What in the heck, people.
Stating Intention to hammer Xanth for obvious reasons.
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Ack! Quick post now: Please give us an hour extension like I asked for earlier? Literally just got home from work. Will finish post shortly, want to have at least some chatter before we hammer someone.
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Yeah, I'm fine with a Xanth hammer, Alex.
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Sudden death already, so no extensions. I'll wait for Snow to say what he wants to though. (HEY SNOW MEEPLE IS CLAIMING COP DO NOT HAMMER HIM THANKS)
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... Fascinating. I am rather annoyed you went all shenanigans on us when you're our cop, but I guess it can't be helped now. Not sure if I believe you, not sure if leaving you alive will not bite us in the arse later on; you'll forgive me if my trust in you has been mortally damaged some. (with regards to this game anyway)
I'm around, thrown off my momentum by this announcement. Want to hear Xanth if possible.
I do not understand why SnowFire is desperate to post for the end of today. I'll withhold further opinions on it until the post or something, I don't know.
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Just back. Grand. So much for that gambit to give people a chance.
Well, I'm not going to kill the copclaim. I have nothing to match that, but am town. Won't hammer myself in case there's crap people have to say first.
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I don't like Strago saying "Meeple's Post si a retcon to generate discussion!" Um, shit, yes, it was done for that purpose? What do you think the point of a "pressure vote" is? Why do you think I said "Its as good a place to start as any" (even if it apparently was a horrible place to start)?
You seem to have missed the point here. The "retcon" is obviously what Strago was critical of, not attempts to generate discussion. Semantics perhaps, but the post with the actual vote (at the bottom of page one) did contain more waffling than justification. Sure, "get the ball rolling," etcetera, but I've gone on at length about how you can't pressure someone who's not active in the game and I'm not up to repeating myself right now.
Cid bugs me for claiming I had poor reasons to justify my votes:
-Vote stays on Meeple for the Delta vote, the poor attempt to justify it, and him having nothing useful to say in response to the pressure. "I'm apparently good at painting myself a target." Sure, but being Meeple doesn't give you a free pass to make scummy errors. Meeple and Xanth look like our best options for lynching today.
That's not what I said. That "I'm good at painting myself a target" is just a side point. Great way to strawman the post. I explained why I did it, and again, how do you justify a "lets get the ball rolling" vote beyond that? In fact, you've in the past slammed me for not taking any sort of initiative, and voted me on it in the past. Metagaming? Yes, but now you're contradicting your own advice. I really don't follow this logic here; I try to do SOMETHING, and now suddenly I feel suspicious cause I did it poorly? This feels more like "Meeple's playing idiotically, therefor scum!" rather than "Meeple's playing scummy."
How am I suppose to justify a vote that, as I stated in the post I voted on him, existed purely to help pressure him? Bad tactic, maybe! But I said why I did it, and you're saying "Not good enough, SCUM!" Its putting someone's back against the wall for a minor slip, I feel.
You make it sound like I've got a vendetta against you, Meeple. Drama doesn't help us, chill out. It's not the fact that you did something that I object to, it's the specific course of action. I've already explained why I found the particular vote both useless and a textbook scum fakecase.
EDIT: Ninja'd by Meepleclaim. Argh what, sharing Bard's exasperation here. Satisfied with a Xanth hammer given the circumstances and my longstanding doubts about him.
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Eh... Regardless of which side he's on, Xanth's best bet is still possibly Hammer, Stop Talking. That way he's sure that a member of his team survives, while if he's town, he has no clue if Meeple's lying through his teeth. Hell, if it had been Xanth coming in with that proclaimation, I'd probably be announcing my willingness to swap sides, since leaving this in the hands of the people in question will muddy things a bit more in the future.
Also known as, I don't want this decision to be in the hands of someone who can very easily claim survival as his reason. (That said, I also don't want to off the cop claim, so my hands are pretty much tied)
EDIT: I'm, uhhh.... gonna leave all of that up there, cause hey, I typed it all and want to leave it on record. But, damn does Xanth ninjaing leave me feeling a bit foolish. And, generally pessimistic with how Day 1 is going to end.
EDIT2: Oh, hey, Cid ninjaing as well... will leave that alone and post without reading for now.
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... Fascinating. I am rather annoyed you went all shenanigans on us when you're our cop, but I guess it can't be helped now. Not sure if I believe you, not sure if leaving you alive will not bite us in the arse later on; you'll forgive me if my trust in you has been mortally damaged some. (with regards to this game anyway)
See this is what I just don't get. What are these "shenanigans" Meeple has done, other than vote Delta early on and then try to fend off the vicious attacks he got from doing so? How is voting Delta an action indicative of scum alignment rather than a stupid townie move? What could he have said that would actually satisfy folks? What the heck is with people letting these debates snowball and then going "Well he's so defensive he MUST be scum now!"
Excal, the answer is "cop claim."
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Responses:
Sir Alex (Actually, also Bardiche, since he mentioned me being useless, and AndrewRogue): Seems like our posts were seconds apart, but all I can say is repeat that I was at work the whole day. I went to bed somewhat early last night when only EvilTom's post still existed after mine, then got up to see a whole huge flood of posts in the morning. And, well, I do need to get to work, which is why it was only a statusy-type update and not a longer analysis. This schedule isn't going to change anytime soon. (The one exception might be times I go home for lunch, but that isn't overly common. Check my previous posting patterns at the DL if you must - I certainly never go here from work.)
Remember, there was basically very little to go on early last night, and it was still the prod-people into responding phase to get things moving (which I did my piece on). This morning I had little time.
Bardiche, neo response: Why do I want to say my piece? Because you demanded me to, and as a good townie I want to help lynch the right people?
Yikes, checking replies, seeing they're flying past. Okay, personal defense in this post, thoughts on our targets in the next.
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So yes, let's just remember me for my grand sacrifice that at least didn't immediately doom the cop. Not much I think I can say to help for later days.
Only thing I'll leave behind is that I'm a little annoyed at how I'm getting hit for metagaming when it's been thrown at me far harder than I've given out. But don't dwell on that any further, seeing as it's already taken out most of half a day.
Excal: given this position, it looks best to town for me that I suck it up here and let it go on, rather than waste another day with people attacking me again. Dying's a bitch, but given it being sudden death and all let's just minimise the damage.
Tom: best wishes and no hard feelings if you are town (well done if you're not), but please keep this in mind when you frame cases later in this game.
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Xanth, quick rundown on who you think is scummy and why while we're waiting?
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Another cut myself short and post deal. Seeing Xanth's post... That's very... noble of Xanth. From the tone, he actually sounds town. Is there anyway to change the train to someone non-Meeple, non-Xanth quickly? I'm buying Xanth's towniness (Though maybe I'm falling for WIFOM too much, since I was accused of it earlier...)
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Checking, the answers are either me (1 vote) and EvilTom (1 vote). Well, I'm obviously town. So...
## VOTE EvilTom
Doing many posts due to the possibility of somebody hammering, so apologies to those reading the stream of consciousness.
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Alex: working on it now. Was going to post it, but was then ninja'd by Snowfire:
Snowfire: it's sudden death. You unfortunately may only vote for Meeple or Xanth to break the deadlock. If I thought I could get it on to someone else I wouldn't have accepted my death so completely.
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There are only 3 moveable votes, so that isn't going to work. Gonna have to be (Meeple or ) Xanth unfortunately.
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I was hoping that said one-hour extension would be granted, which would mean we aren't sudden death. Though I guess that would retroactively mess things up.
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We are not actually in sudden death because I've had a vote on meeple since page 2, shoving him one ahead of Xanth.
Should this, in fact, be a mistake of some kind which can still be compensated for, I would ##Unvote, ##Vote: Xanth due to copclaim.
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And a quick check says Rat's right.
Well, whatever else happens, it's a rules call for Soppy, and a Hammer either way.
So, stop talking!
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Sonova bitch. No posting votes in the middle like that, Rat. My bad for not catching it.
HAMMER, STOP TALKING
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Times weren't great for Chief Wiggum after the Stonecutters. In fact, there were times he needed to sell most of his gun just to feed his family. When the Stonecutters were around, that kinda thing never happened. So when the new Stonecutters showed their faces, he couldn't help but join.
Obviously, is Wiggum was a better cop, he'd know that he doesn't fit the profile of one who could keep a secret very long. With the town aghast at the latest crimewave, they became increasingly fed up with the performance of said Wiggum.
Like many things in Springfield. This is punishable by catapault.
And much like Zombie Flanders, they had no idea that he was a Stonecutter until after he was launched when they broke into the police HQ and discovered, among other things, a copy of the most hallowed and sacred parchment.
Meeple (5): Cid, Bard, Andy, Cid, Delta, Rat
Eviltom (1): Bard, Xanth
Carthrat (0): EvilTom, Alex, Snowfire
Snowfire (1): Xanth, Alex
El Cid (0): Meeple, Excal
Xanth (4): Ryogo, Excal, EvilTom, Meeple
AndrewRogue (0): Strago, Cid
Delta (0): Andrew, Meeple
Bardiche (0): SnowFire
Meeplelard, AKA Chief Clancy Wiggum, SCUM ROLECOP, was lynched!
It is now Night One! Send in night actions!
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The Stonecutters knew Dr. Hibbert had one habit that could always be counted on. His weekly attendence of the midnight showing of The Rocky Horror Picture Show. They had to strike a blow for poor Wiggum, so they lay in wait for him at the Aztec. The recent crimewave made things relatively easy for them, as he was the only one in attendence. When the townspeople found him the next day, hung from the marquee still in his Dr. Frankenfurter costume, it taught them all a valuable lesson.
No amount of chuckling will save you from dying an embarassing death in lingerie.
Bardiche AKA Dr. Julius Hibbert, VANILLA TOWN, was killed overnight!
Day Two begins now! Voting ends in 48 hours.
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
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Well. On one hand, we lynched scum! Yay! On the other hand it was an unpleasant surprise to get home and see we were already in sudden death. And I got to look like a suspicious lurker due to returning to find that my requested short extension had kind of gone nowhere. Of course we might have accidentally lynched Xanth had the extension been granted (and Meeple had given his amusingly sorta true copclaim at the same time), so whatever, what's done is done. For future reference: Weekdays from 8:45-5:45 or so are generally out, and it's not uncommon to get home later than that. And while I'm fine with checking up on Mafia in the mornings, I'm not setting my alarm earlier for the sake of the game, and when it's time to go to work I'm going even if my post isn't as long as I'd like. Real life and all that.
So, as a general game maintenance item, can we please avoid expiration dates in the 3-6:30 PM range, extending at least to 7:00 in those cases? Because I basically missed the entire second half of Round 1, tuning in only for the grand finale. (Seems like it won't be an issue this round, with a midnightish deadline, at least.)
---
Back to business... thoughts, now that I've had time to go through the second half of Day1.
Meeplelard - Nobody cares about my thoughts on him anymore, I suppose, but damnit I'd written some and I'm going to abridge it now so I don't feel like a total failure. I wasn't very happy with the "he contradicted himself in the same post!" arguments, as that seemed mostly a stylistic issue true in Meeple's posts regardless of which team he's on. Ultimately, I think we got a bit lucky here - I don't think Meeple was acting nearly as untoward as others, but obviously even random lynches can hit paydirt, so hurray for being wrong about him.
Xanth - Standing by what I said earlier that Xanth's last posts when he was on the execution block were not really setting off a Mafia vibe. Also not really buying some of the initial anti-Xanth arguments that warning about possible lack of posting = OMG Scum. So Xanth was a voluminous poster before. Maybe things have changed? Also, I'm not sure about the code of honor, if any, around these parts, but out-of-game matters/distractions aren't the kind of thing you lie about even if you're scum to me.
As for the other accusation, that he attacked Meeple and then voted Tom... nothing wrong with saying "I suspect two people, but I'll vote this way." This is, granted, the most suspicious thing we have on him, but I'm still inclined to call him likely town. His seeming before-execution post had a strong air of "I told you so" to it which would be bizarre if he then flipped scum. (Though granted, if the sudden death was a vanilla mafia-mafia w/role square off, obviously you let the roled mafia live. I'll let others hash out how likely this is, but I don't buy it.)
Bardiche - I guess what I wrote up on him isn't really relevant anymore either. Well, he was the first one to back killing Meeple, so not completely shocking he got offed.
El Cid - Also led the early raid against Meeple. Very aggressive, but I'm inclined to chalk that up to his posting style, and I agree with El Cid that the town needs a few aggressive types. On the other hand, he's accusing lots of targets - Meeple, Xanth, AndrewRogue, me, possibly someone else I missed - so it could just be scattershot. Leaning town.
AndrewRouge - Also aggressively accusing lots of people. Was third on the Meeple train after Meeple seconded his own vote for Delta. I'm not liking the vibe from Andrew - more so than El Cid - but it could just be a personality thing?
EvilTom - Was pushing the "lynch Xanth" train the hardest, so I'm inherently skeptical.
Sir Alex - Defended Meeple (Which is fine, like I say above I'd have agreed with it at the time) and attacked me. In fairness, you said it was Day1 style voting off gut, and Day1 is wild and woolly. No read on him (though of course my masterful and insightful posts which lead to correct lynches will surely convince Alex I'm not scum?).
Ryogo, Excal, Cathrat, DeltaFlyer, Strago - I don't really have a good impression yet.
Tentatively, I'd continue to aim my fire at EvilTom this Day2, but interested in other thoughts as well.
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Expected as much. Remaining suspects from yesterday are still relevant:
Snowfire: Ninjapost negates a fair bit of what I was going to say here, but not all of it. My present concern is this: Snowfire, you speculate about the possibility of "continuing" pressure on Tom, but I don't see a whole lot of material in the record for you to build off of. Your vote for him late yesterday was, as per your post, simply to try and provide and alternative to Xanth and Meeple. Other than that, you haven't provided any material on him other than finding him disagreeable because you think Xanth is town. I do not consider this much of a case. Can you give us something more? I also think you read too much into Xanth's posts of late yesterday (more on this below).
Xanth: Lots of fluff and chatter which space could be better used actually scumhunting, etcetera. I've been over this. His resignation late yesterday gives a null read since it's understandable behavior for either alignment (it makes sense for a town Xanth to take a lynch in place of a possible cop, and it makes sense for a scum Xanth to take a hit for Meeple because Meeple was a scum power role) so I'm not factoring that into my analysis at all and hope others won't either. Having trouble thinking up specific questions I want to ask him; will wait and see what he comes up with this morning before deciding whether or not to move against him.
~
Random thoughts on ther people:
-Andy: Looks better for going after Meeple early, for all that I have trouble linking him to particular cases.
-Delta/Strago: Flying under the radar still. Delta has a seemingly legitimate excuse in his defense but the grace period won't last forever. More activity = doubleplusgood. Meanwhile, Strago seems to be avoiding everyone's notice while only minimally posting. This will not do. Thus:
##Vote: Strago
Stragovarius! Inquiring minds require you to tell us who you think is scummy right now.
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El Cid: I was trying to keep my points succinct, but sure, I might have been too clipped on EvilTom. My concern with EvilTom is precisely the pushing the Xanth lynch, as you note. A) I don't buy the Xanth logic. This is not fatal in and of itself, as townies disagree. However B) This started up after Meeple was already starting to accumulate votes. We know in retrospect that Meeple was scum. It's certainly reasonable for scum to try starting an alternative train to save one of their own, and rolecop is certainly worth saving.
That's pretty much it.
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I'd counter with the fact that the two trains developed apace. Meeple got a vote, Xanth got a vote, Meeple got a vote, Xanth got a vote. The Xanth votes didn't come out of nowhere at the last minute...although yes, Meeple's vote in particular did drop in at the end of the day, and it could be argued that he did this precisely to trigger sudden death overtime and wheedle out of his own death. However, even if this is so, it says as little about Xanth's alignment as does Xanth's apparent willingness to die yesterday, and for the same reason: he was the only player with enough standing votes to be a possible substitute for Meeple. Scum could've easily decided to try to sub him in for their rolecop. All of this is speculation, of course, but that's the point: we can't be sure enough about any of these theories to conclude from them that Xanth is town.
I confess to being rather alarmed by how certain you are of Xanth's alignment, especially when it involves suspecting another player solely for building a case on Xanth. It just seems too early in the game to have that kind of trust in anyone.
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Well, that was... something.
Having been wrong day 1 and all, I'll have to think about things for a while here. Considering the circumstances, Snowfire and Rat are looking pretty good to me right now. Insane gambit possibilities notwithstanding.
Excal, Ryogo and to some extent Delta are giving me bad vibes right now. The first two obviously were on the not-Meeple trains early and didn't want to switch. In less tangible terms, I went "Wait, Excal's in this game?" when he posted in sudden death, and am still going "Wait, Ryogo's in this game?" right now. That's enough for me to lay one down on him here.
##Vote: Ryogo
Delta, well, straight up, Delta is Delta, day 1 scum lynches are pretty weird, and Delta on a scum team is one of the ways I can see them happening. We aren't really likely to get much out of him no matter what, though. So hm.
Xanth also being scum is another way, and one that on reread I'm not counting out yet. I'm even less sure what to say about him supporting the Meeple train without being on it, but it still doesn't look all that happy to me.
Strago/Andy/Cid/Tom look fine at the moment. They've all been saying reasonably intelligent things. I don't see Strago as low content at all, in fact he's one of the posters who stick out most in my mind.... though I don't agree with a lot of the things he's been saying, they don't look scummy.
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I am glad to see that we hit scum.
Xanth seems to be rather suspicious to me right now, as scum could have forced a lynch on him during sudden death. However, I suppose a different view would be that the people who were not on the major trains may well be town, since they did not go for Xanth.
I agree with Sir Alex again, in that Excal and Ryogo do need to contribute more. I, myself also need to do this, and I will do so.
Snowfire worries me, he appears to be attempting to lynch EvilTom. To me it almost seems obsessive, with him attempting to lynch ET. I do not see this as a continuing concern, however, since he has recognised this. I am not stating that he must not focus on ET, but needs to focus on others also.
Ryogo, what? Stop lurking and post, PLEASE!
More when I return from school.
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Well, this is kind of embarrassing. This feels like holding a handshake session at your own funeral.
As much as some people are reading yesterday's last minute circumstances as at best neutral for me, I will at least try to argue for my sake that if I was scum looking for damage control then that was a really bad course of action for me, because if I was lynched (and I hope everyone at least agrees I was expecting to get lynched) and flipped scum then people would boggle as to why I didn't just hammer Meeple and at worst get lynched the next day instead, which would lead to people working out Meeple's fake claim much quicker (and wouldn't risk the actual cop). No gain anywhere. The correct course of action in that case would have been for me to remain silent and just naturally gain the next vote, as really would have happened with the cop claim. My own farewells make no sense if I then flipped scum, but I won't make a big deal out of that.
Likewise for unbelievable scum plays, Rat is now all but cleared in my head, for bringing the extra vote to light not long before someone (probably SnowFire or Alex) would have had to drop the extra vote on me, when staying silent would have served him.
Similar but less so for Snowfire. Whilst he notably wanted someone who was not-Meeple to be lynched, his goal did seem to also be not-Xanth, which would have been all too easy to justify.
Delta actually looks reasonably good to me now, because his vote was key in keeping Meeple pushed ahead, and I can't see him knowingly push a scumfriend ahead when there's a train on a townie to pursue instead that he could have really easily been on given his late entrance.
Given that a jump from Meeple to me didn't come earlier, I'm unsurprisingly more suspicious of people who were already on my train, although do keep in mind that my lynch was basically inevitable anyway and hence sure, scum could just sit back and wait for someone else to do it.
I started writing a passage about how I was actually supportive of Tom for being anti-Meeple as a secondary case to his nuke on me, but on reading over the thread again what I actually found was a single point of argument that he passes off with metagaming.
Likewise, I noted my concerns with Ryogo and Excal's votes at the time. I have to go now, but will expand and continue when I get back in about five hours, when I should ahve all the time in the world.
-
Oofghlefark. Work = an unholy bitch, yesterday. I'm really sorry I disappeared and was unable to leverage my vote. Now it is time for me to look back over the topic and take things in; the better to respond to El Cid's query and very reasonable vote.
-
In fact yes, having had time to think over what would have happened if I were scum, I conclude that my actions at the end of the day would be completely and utterly suboptimal (as outlined in my previous post) with no benefits other than to potentially serve making me look better now given survival, but as I hope no one is going to claim that I actually in any way expected to survive that set up that doesn't cut it either. I will now stand by that as a damn good reason why I'm town, and won't hear for it to be hushed down to a neutral or negative read unless there's an actual case against it (I could still have just missed an avenue, after all).
I am now back. Everything else to follow after lunch.
-
Right, here we go.
So, I'm mostly pushing Rat, Snowfire and Delta to the side for now. That leaves Cid, Strago, Ryogo, Tom, Alex, Andy and Excal.
Very briefly on Delta:
scumDelta + townXanth => Delta pushed teammate crucially ahead when he had free rein to drop it on a townsman instead.
And in the likely case that people won't let me off easily:
scumDelta + scumXanth => hilariously poor teamwork that gets in each other's way all over the place and seemingly no effort made into railing on to a townsman, other than Xanth re:Tom.
So even when looking at it from not my position, I really can't see scumDelta at this point.
As much as Cid has continued to dog my case, he was a major proponent of knocking Meeple ahead yesterday, and as much as that seemed like a bad idea late on, the momentum of that through the day now speaks loudest to me. Sure it's possible for team scum to plan out drama like this ahead of time, but I find it hard to believe it would be quite so badly planned to miss out on the votes or not to make a bigger push for me or someone else.
Which brings me to the rather interesting time frame of the 'sudden death' last night. Given that my vote wasn't down on Meeple, I'm surprised that team scum would not be more afraid about my ability to invoke survivalism to kill their teammate regardless of the claim, especially when I'd made it pretty clear that I'd be returning quite shortly after the deadline. I'd expect scum with the power to do so to have used the perfectly reasonable excuse of 'putting the hammer down before Xanth gets the time to hammer the copclaim', so I'm inclined to believe more in those who could but didn't, which mostly throws up the people already covered one way or another - Bardiche, Snowfire and Cid. Alex also gains some credit even though he announced an intent to hammer, because again he could have just said that the rest could wait until the start of day two if he was scum worried about my impending return (it's not like he would have taken flak for making Snowfire wait).
Which leaves us with those who couldn't, either from being on me already and/or not being around at the time. This leaves me with Strago, Ryogo, Tom, Andy and Excal to consider (to confirm, it's not like I'm completely ruling out the others).
Of those, first off:
##Vote: Tom
If I'm looking for any sign of team scum trying to work their way around Meeple getting lynched, then Tom's step up into a full assault on me is the biggest sign anyone could possibly find. This came at the point where Meeple had just become the vote leader and I was suddenly the only likely alternative (Rat was technically also on two votes to match my two and Meeple's three, but that included Tom's own joke vote). The ferocity of the attack so early on boggled me at the time as stated, but the timing and effective result do nothing to change my suspicion.
This is getting too long. Splitting the rest into a different post.
-
Likewise for unbelievable scum plays, Rat is now all but cleared in my head, for bringing the extra vote to light not long before someone (probably SnowFire or Alex) would have had to drop the extra vote on me, when staying silent would have served him.
I'm incredibly concerned that you're clearing Rat for pointing out a votecount error. It would have surfaced quickly at the next votecount, and had no real impact on the game. Pointing it out didn't change anything, as hammer had already ocurred. Town or scum are equally likely to point out the error. Big red flags here.
As much as some people are reading yesterday's last minute circumstances as at best neutral for me, I will at least try to argue for my sake that if I was scum looking for damage control then that was a really bad course of action for me, because if I was lynched (and I hope everyone at least agrees I was expecting to get lynched) and flipped scum then people would boggle as to why I didn't just hammer Meeple and at worst get lynched the next day instead, which would lead to people working out Meeple's fake claim much quicker
That's one possibility, but we're in the dark about what scum was trying to do. Scum could have had a plan to pull you out of the mess - a doublevoter to hammer Meeple after all your heroic theatrics. Anything's possible, so to say that scumXanth wouldn't have acted in such a manner is pretty dicey and gets into WIFOM. I'm not prepared to make such assumptions.
Similar but less so for Snowfire. Whilst he notably wanted someone who was not-Meeple to be lynched, his goal did seem to also be not-Xanth, which would have been all too easy to justify.
I'm not really seeing the logic here.
In fact yes, having had time to think over what would have happened if I were scum, I conclude that my actions at the end of the day would be completely and utterly suboptimal (as outlined in my previous post) with no benefits other than to potentially serve making me look better now given survival, but as I hope no one is going to claim that I actually in any way expected to survive that set up that doesn't cut it either. I will now stand by that as a damn good reason why I'm town, and won't hear for it to be hushed down to a neutral or negative read unless there's an actual case against it (I could still have just missed an avenue, after all).
Scum fuck up. We saw that happen with Meeple! Having 2 scum as the lynch candidates on day 1 happens too. As I said before, we don't know the setup. There is no way I'm reading that as proof that you are town.
Also I don't like the bursting about a right to supposed confirmed townyness (bold text).
As far as I'm concerned, Meeple's flip did not give Xanth any town points. His recent fallacious and gung-ho 'arguments' have earned him scum points, if only because of his assertive manner - "I'm definately town".
Snow's behavior - "EvilTom voted Xanth, therefore EvilTom is probably scum".... newby or scummy, I can't tell. Bad logic either way.
Also, just noticed that Snow spent a fair bit of time defending Xanth's actions yesterday.
I'm actually finding myself agreeing with Delta quite a lot - this is a rare event.
The most pressing concern though is to get lurkers to talk. *prod* Ryogo, Strago, and even Rat.
Blah, too tired right now. Not confident enough to put down a vote, I'll re-read in the morning and do so then.
Ugh Xanth ninja.
-
I'm surprised that team scum would not be more afraid about my ability to invoke survivalism to kill their teammate regardless of the claim
Unless you're part of team scum?
Typical motive for Xanth to go after me though.
Anyway, too tired.. I'll return in the morning ~_~
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RARGLEFUCK
Work is a nightmare this week, everything is a load of rubbishy bollocks; this weekend is my birthday celebration and apparently my friends are organizing a weekend of events for me; I think I ought to be replaced. Soppy?
ARGH ARG ARRRR
-
Well, this vote seems pretty pointless now.
##Unvote: Strago
Digesting Xanth vs. Tom stuff right now, figured I'd get this out of the way first.
-
I'll try to find a replacement, but do please keep playing until I do.
Votecount:
Strago (0): Cid
Ryogo (1): Alex
EvilTom (1): Xanth
There are 36 hours left in Day Two.
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
-
Tom, I appreciate that being tired is going to hamper how much you're able to do, but please don't just cherry pick random points and ignore the rest. I trust that when you do return in the morning you won't have the same trouble, but if you read 'A => B => C => D' but only actually read 'C => D' and reply with 'but C doesn't necessarily follow. What if notB?' there's not really much I can do but point you back to the start.
Rat had everything to gain and nothing to lose from being silent for an extra half hour or so. Once I'd flipped it would be impossible to unflip me, so at worst Meeple would be flipped in addition to me, and without knowing the rulings I'd say at best Meeple may have got to live on.
The bit on Snow works from the basis of townXanth, at which point a theoretical scumSnow would be looking at 'scummate with a cop claim backing him up' and sacrificial townsman to choose between, and he didn't jump on the latter. Meeple/Xanth/Snow all scum is a mess and a half.
Don't wave away my logic for last night as 'who knows what scum could have been doing' when I'm demonstrating how nonsensical it would be for those actions. "Anything's possible" is just a good blanket justification for attacking any position. I patently did not expect to survive (who other than me could have hammered Meeple under those claim circumstances and not been strung up themselves the next day? Unless you are making a ridiculous claim of Meeple/Xanth/Rat all scum, there's no way this position was orchestrated), in which case you should be arguing that I was theoretically trying to sacrifice myself to save Meeple, but my case is that if I was scum then I wouldn't have saved anything and would have gained nothing for it, with really obvious better alternatives available.
Deal with it head on and find an actual hole in it (there could be one! As much as I'd love this to convince people, my logic may easily have faltered somewhere), because so far you're just implying that you think I'm stupid as well as scum.
.
With Strago's position changing again, I'm neatly down to Ryogo, Andy and Excal.
Andy's pretty simple - I had a relatively positive read on him from early on, after which he's just not been around. Go figure I disagree with the strength he calls to me 'drawing a lot of attention to [his] very limited post time' (I haven't and simply won't let anything justify me not posting enough), but otherwise mostly find myself in agreement with his lines of thought. Just with little in total, the concern is simple.
A reread of Ryogo does just seem to generate a weak 'gut' case on me, which was raised above other concerns, in particular those on Meeple. Minor bonus points for being the first on me rather than being a train, but the shallowness of his presence and direction puts him second on my list. Funny how little there is to say there.
Excal just seemed to flip-flop his way through the first day. Checking his posts I was surprised when it went straight from 'I don't have opinions to clarify, it's too early' (here (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52483#msg52483)) to 'lower the hammer' (here (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52568#msg52568)), as his position by the time of the former was a little bit of metagaming and more gut. Had his final post of content (here (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52574#msg52574)) gone out without the edits (in this case, had he posted before I got back) then I'd be far more suspicious on the grounds of it matching expected scum behaviour of trying to get the hammer to fall on me before I could get back to hammer Meeple. Posting it anyway with the edit tagged on at the very least confuses me, if not actually reassure me.
Would really like to hear from all three of them.
So yeah, my train involved three light prods and a nuke. I guess all of the normal arguing [on my case] I remember came from people who didn't actually vote for me.
That's me done for now, I think. Will be around for quite some time if someone needs me. Do tell if I'm steering too close to walls of text.
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Random stuff first:
-Alex! How does Meeple's flip clear Snowfire? I'm just not seeing it, and it weirds me out a little considering that you found Snowfire a major suspect yesterday.
-Fully agree with Alex on Ryogo/Excal. I actually thought Ryogo started out well in the first twenty-four hours or so, but his vanishing act in the second half of day one doesn't do him any favors. He also characterized his reason to vote for Xanth as "mostly gut," and while he did provide a few reasons (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?action=post;quote=52458;topic=3003.25;num_replies=102;sesc=1c9f87e5114829a3a19a2bda5b398055) he also follows these up with some silliness about someone "sneaking in a mislynch" at a time when nobody had more than two votes on them.
~
Xanth vs. Tom stuff (just highlights; they've produced a lot of text between them). Xanth first:
-Everything I've said about his day one posting still stands. In the interest of minimizing wall o' textness, I'll not repeat it all here.
-Still trying to present his willingness to die yesterday as evidence that he's town. I don't buy this. A) It's customary in DL Mafia to let the accused roleclaim before being lynched. Anybody hammering another player before they've had a chance to do this is going to suffer some serious backlash the next day. B) Blithely hammering someone making a copclaim, against the wishes of almost the entire body of players, will incur the same onus regardless of how the copclaim turns out. Your defense that you could've hammered Meeple at any time in the name of survival doesn't fly for these reasons.
Now Tom:
-Hey kid, I'm a computah! Stop all the metagamin'! Seriously Tom, it's alarming how much of your anti-Xanth posting stems from metagaming. I obviously share suspicion of Xanth, but this isn't the way to support it. The following example is particularly egregious:
'Har har, I totally meant to do that!' = sounding pretty lame.
However, taking into account how Meep has played previous games, Xanth's actions look a lot worse. So choosing between the two of them, I go with:
##Vote: Xanth
I think Meeple's flip should demonstrate why we can't give anyone a free pass for talking nonsense in Mafia. Excusing someone now demonstrated to be scum on such shoddy grounds = doubleplusungood.
-Random quote that bugged me:
[Long quote of Xanth talking about late yesterday stuff.]
That's one possibility, but we're in the dark about what scum was trying to do. Scum could have had a plan to pull you out of the mess - a doublevoter to hammer Meeple after all your heroic theatrics. Anything's possible, so to say that scumXanth wouldn't have acted in such a manner is pretty dicey and gets into WIFOM. I'm not prepared to make such assumptions.
See bolded sentence. I fully agree that Xanth's behavior late yesterday gives a null read, but invoking the possibility of crazy roles being present to debunk him? Don't do this.
-Monomania. It would be awesome if you could analyze a case other than just the first guy to lay a serious vote against you.
Summary: In spite of my misgivings about how Tom's presented his attacks on Xanth, I'm not really getting a scum vibe from him. My primary conclusion from rereading all this stuff is this: in a scenario where both Meeple and Xanth are scum, it would make sense for the scum team to try and push a Xanth lynch through at the last minute in order to save their power role instead (minimizing losses in a lose-lose scenario), but it would not make sense for the scum team to have started the Xanth train in the first place. Thus, I'm inclined to consider that if Xanth is scum then the early votes for him likely aren't; and vice versa. The fact that the first votes on Xanth were by people I'm starting to suspect by virtue of their coasting hardcore (Ryogo/Excal) makes this very interesting indeed, so I believe I'll follow Alex's lead for now. Thus:
##Vote: Ryogo
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-Alex! How does Meeple's flip clear Snowfire? I'm just not seeing it, and it weirds me out a little considering that you found Snowfire a major suspect yesterday.
If Meeple+Snowfire were scum, Snow would have no reason to refrain from hammering Xanth in sudden death, and would have had every reason earlier to get a vote down somewhere and try to roll with a train that wasn't Meeple. OR be on or "mistakenly" hammer Meeple for town cred. What he did do strikes me as the least likely course of action if he were Meeple's scum buddy. Unless we're dealing with the least coordinated scum team ever...
.... which is a possibility I would ascribe only if Delta is somehow involved. The possibilities Xanth points out as clearing Delta are exactly why I remain uneasy about Delta.
But I'm not so hot on Xanth either. I don't buy him being cleared by day 1 at all, and his pressing the case that he is and trying to wrap all his arguments around that make me less comfortable with him. It remains entirely possible to me that BOTH Meeple and Xanth are scum and just dropped the ball day 1. When we're talking about two scum in sudden death, where one of them has to die, I wouldn't put any sort of gambit past them.
That said I agree with Cid re: Tom's arguments. Tom, buddy, pour some chill sauce on it and look around.
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Alright, quick post.
Xanth, my reasons for wanting sudden death over quickly was because we had a cop claim on the table, and because if you were scum, you'd want to hit that hard, lie or not. Granted... the way things turned out horribly screwed up my expectations, but you showing up and not hammering while I posted that really did throw me for a loop.
As for outlook... honestly, I have a hard time seeing a vote on Meeple being a bus vote, so I'm going to ignore those folks for right now. Especially since one of those votes is probably the person I have the strongest pro-town feeling for right now. Sadly, Strago, after a good re-read, felt very solid to me as well, but he's out of the loop at present.
Xanth... Rereading him and going over the sudden death, my worries have receeded a bit, and there are definatly better folks to go after now.
Sadly, since getting up, I've been other work, so not sure where I sit on Ryogo/Tom, and which one makes a better target. But, the only other folks who didn't vote Meep were Alex, Snowfire, myself. Alex has been playing a good game for town, and I've got nothing on him. Case on self is haha no. And snow... the only case in which he's scum and it makes sense is if he's scumbuddies with Meep/Xanth. In which case, not only does the attempt to deflect from either make sense, but also there's the fact that he could sit back, let Alex hammer as he claimed he intended to, and not get called overmuch on it, cause hey, we got scum! I don't think that's likely, but it's there.
Though, one question, Snow. Who would you have wanted us to switch to instead of those two?
I have other things to do right now that require thought, so... yeah. Especially since the difference between the two is Ryogo's less solid points (which I admit are kind of like mine), or Tom's sudden attack.
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Ryogo: Well. Everything that needs be said here has been said here. Posted a little bit and has since fallen off the face of the earth.
Xanth: The theatrics yesterday were fairly nice, but... yeah. They really weren't so grand. When you are in that situation, it is a pretty forgone conclusion that you are going to die and hammering a copclaim like that, especially without town support, would look pretty damn bad even if Meeple flipped scum. Your end day actions also confuse me slightly. You don't swing a vote onto Meeple even as time wears down, you don't make a faint gesture at a claim and you don't... really do much to make it look like you intend to try and survive at all, even before we got to Sudden Death. I realize there were a few hours in there but, even anticipating that you wouldn't be back in time, you really didn't do anything to try and preserve yourself, which sends up all sorts of red flags to me.
EvilTom: Is absolutely dogged in his pursuit of Xanth. Like, we're only paying attention to one suspect and occasionally defending ourselves dogged. Combine with a lot of metagaming and some slightly... out there... theories and I'm not really sold on him at all. This sort of single-minded assault, at the very least, is not very good for us in general.
##Vote: EvilTom
While there is merit in making sure your case gets heard and argued and addressed... you're putting on blinders here. You've barely addressed anyone else in game, aside from a few words here or there. So yeah. It feels like a way to give yourself a lot of posting cred and look like a strong scumhunter without actually doing much of either. Let's see you branch out a bit.
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From Xanth: Likewise for unbelievable scum plays, Rat is now all but cleared in my head, for bringing the extra vote to light not long before someone (probably SnowFire or Alex) would have had to drop the extra vote on me, when staying silent would have served him.
I have to agree with EvilTom on this one - this was a housekeeping issue that I can see not lying on regardless, lying about the earlier vote would be a horrible risk if somebody ever reread the thread especially if Meeple was later proven scum, and furthermore theoretical-scum-Rat might have thought that his switch to Xanth after the cop-claim would go through since the way Sopko would adjudicate was not obvious in advance. Which is not to say I suspect Rat that much - he still gets some minor credit for being on the Meeple train - but I don't think much can be read from his sudden death post, which made sense for both scumRat and townRat.
From Excal: Though, one question, Snow. Who would you have wanted us to switch to instead of those two?
Stepping back into Day1 mode... I wanted to lynch EvilTom then, too. By the time I read up, Meeple had copclaimed, and I didn't find the earlier case against him very persuasive anyway. Xanth's train struck me as artificial and weird (though this is admittedly influenced by the fact that I don't buy the arguments), which was more suspicious; Meeple's train struck me at the time as well-intentioned but likely wrong, even if it hit paydirt. Why EvilTom specifically? Because he already had a vote on him from Xanth, and I wanted to pick somebody who we could theoretically get votes moved to fast. Though it ended up being futile. (And, in retrospect, luckily so.)
Anyway. Continuing on this train of thought, I agree with Sir Alex and El Cideon's suspicions... it seems pretty likely that at least some scum would want in on the Xanth train. One of which was obviously Meeple himself. So that means Ryogo and Excal get the lurking gaze of suspicion with EvilTom. Will probably drop a vote on one of those three depending on what they have to say.
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Yay. Weekend. Feelings of joy.
*cough*
The way I see things now.
Ryogo, post or I do believe Sopko will modkill you. No point voting for him because a modkill will do just that.
Eviltom seems to have the same problem that Snow had against ET. He is obsessed with Xanth. Although, with that said, Andrew made a valid point.
Xanth, why did you not attempt to preserve your life at the end of day one? You seemed to have logged on, seen sudden death and just given up hope? Shed some light on this for us, can you?
Eviltom, can you please explain why you persist on Xanth, with more metagaming points than actual ones?
##VOTE:Eviltom
Ryogo, as I said, can and most likely will be dealt with via modkill unless he shows up soon.
Excal needs to post more. I haven't seen much from him yet, same goes for Rat.
I am mostly getting nice, towny vibes from other players. El Cid and Alex appear most likely townies in my opinion right now.
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Yoshiken has agreed to take Strago's place in the game.
Votecount:
Strago (0): Cid
Ryogo (2): Alex, Cid
EvilTom (3): Xanth, Andy, Delta
There are 29 hours left in Day Two.
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
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Uh, I'm not obsessed with Xanth. I pointed out that Rat isn't cleared - despite what Xanth would have us believe. I pointed out that Xanth isn't cleared despite Meeple flipping scum.
I pointed out massive holes in Xanth's logic. I didn't even vote him, as I'm not done looking around at other people yet :\
Andrew - 'dogged in my pursuit' - does it look that way? More that he said a bunch of things I disagreed with at the start of day 2, right before I went to sleep, so I didn't have time to look at other people.
Delta - you seem pretty eager to leap onto the back of Andrew's post, without providing anything other than "Yeah, Eviltom! WHY!?"
Delta, I've explained my problems with Xanth's logic, but it looks like you're all too intent to just follow what other people are saying, and throw down a vote so easily.
Eviltom, can you please explain why you persist on Xanth, with more metagaming points than actual ones?
Why shouldn't I point out problems in Xanth's logic? He tried to clear Rat based on metagame (which was wrong) - the only way to counter that is with metagame.
Delta's blanket generalised statement and eagerness to throw down a vote here is really concerning.
Especially since he acknowledges there are problems with Xanth (but only after Andrew says it :|, the only difference is that I said it with metagame, Andrew said it with DL metagame.)
##Vote: Delta, what's your reasoning here Delta?
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Meeple's flip DID give Xanth town points to me, if only because it is so very unlikely that both trains were scum. What I don't like about him right now is..
Very briefly on Delta:
scumDelta + townXanth => Delta pushed teammate crucially ahead when he had free rein to drop it on a townsman instead.
And in the likely case that people won't let me off easily:
scumDelta + scumXanth => hilariously poor teamwork that gets in each other's way all over the place and seemingly no effort made into railing on to a townsman, other than Xanth re:Tom.
Making sure to clear someone under the assumption that they're you're scumbuddy as well as if you're town boggles the mind. Not sure why you point that out, please explain.
<->
DT's style of posting seems to be out to remind us that anyone could be scum. He spends more time telling us that people aren't confirmed town than who he thinks is likely on the scum side. There are plenty of other people who have come up with a few people they think are very likely town, and given less reason beside- why does Xanth garner more attention?
Why shouldn't I point out problems in Xanth's logic? He tried to clear Rat based on metagame (which was wrong) - the only way to counter that is with metagame.
Actually that wasn't metagaming you were pointing out, even given the circumstances. That is going 'hmm if Rat was scum, what is the best possible action for him here?', which is a question people should ask themselves about others fairly constantly (even if I am totally an upright citizen and would never try and cheat through the rules like that.) It is also worth noting that you outright cleared Meeple on day 1 based on metagaming yourself.
The OMGUS is also ridiculously strong with DT.
<->
Agreed that Snowfire is probably town, yada yada. Most other people, anything is possible. Too much respect for most players here to think they can't talk a good day one and be on either side. Strago's replacement is obviously a mystery. Most other people are hovering around some middle ground.
I am pretty anti-Ryogo right now, since the last major post he made before vanishing tagged Xanth whilst pseudo-FOSing Meeple, highlighting him as a case whilst going 'but I don't really believe it'. The amount he had to say on lurking mid-day-one is also pretty suspect, since it seemed to me like he was padding out his posts with anti-lurk ranting. (It is ironic that I'm going to vote him now in part because he isn't around, yes.)
##Vote: Ryogo
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Seeing as I'm the new guy in this, I guess I'll start by posting my views on things as they stand...
Oh, and I'll say now - I started writing this at around 2am here, so forgive anything I might've missed or any spelling/grammar errors.
Rat - Hard to say... Looking over the past few pages, there seem to have been no accusations against you past the first page of "Hasn't posted much". I'd be interested in knowing why everyone else has kinda brushed past as though there's nothing to look at here. Neutral until further notice.
Cid/Xanth - Easily the two most aggressive players, from what I can see. Instinct says Town for both, but I'm not gonna just trust that. I'm gonna watch things a little more here, but so far, staying neutral. (Although, for Xanth, I have to agree with Andy in that doing nothing about nearly being killed almost seems a little too friendly, if that makes sense.)
Delta - Instinct says Scum, but, as said before, not relying on that. Attacked both Meeple & Xanth in Day1, and seem to be attacking anyone who focuses on one particular person, seemingly regardless of whether it's justified or not. Neutral, ignoring instinct.
Ryogo - ...Nothing of relevance said, really. Can't say much unless we have a sudden return.
Tom - You seem very much against Xanth, that much can't be denied. But, outside of focusing on him, I can't really see much to say Scum here... I'm leaning Town, but only slightly.
Alex - I'm somewhat suspicious of your Day1 voting... You quite actively defended Meeple repeatedly, trying to shift the blame onto Xanth during this whole time. It's a little shaky, but probably most likely at this stage, in my eyes. Leaning Scum.
Andy - First few pages give no bad impressions. Current vote seems like it's almost through sheer lack of anything else - do you actually think Tom's Scum or is it just that he's not helping Town either way?
Excal - Hmm, nothing really solid either way, but I'm leaning towards Town.
Snow - Tough. The first few pages seem quite suspicious, but that slowly fades over the last few... Overall, I'm pretty neutral at the moment.
With all that said, I'm gonna have to say:
##Vote: Alex
Seems the most likely to be Scum in my eyes so far. I'll have to see if/how that changes, though.
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Tom: All things considered, you've devoted far more time to attacking Xanth then... well. Anything else thus far. Even your explanation for how you aren't obsessing over Xanth... seems to mention Xanth an awful lot. While I realize you say you aren't through looking at everyone yet... well. I'd like to see some delivery on that.
Yoshi: I'm actually inclined to say I'm thinking Tom is potential scum. The thing about Tom that is blowing me away right now is that almost his entire body of text is devoted to Xanth and Xanth related topics. He has an odd or an end here or there, but that's all. It makes the amount of stuff he's put out there look solid and certainly paints him as a good little townie... until you realize that he's not really done that much at all. It could be single-minded scum hunting, but there is definitely scum potential there.
Delta: Kinda piggybacking onto everyone else right now. Between Xanth and Tom, who do you feel is more likely to be scum at this point? What about Alex strikes you as particularly townie at the moment? Add a little more, if you could.
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Grrr. I spent 45 minutes on the post I was going to make here. Twice. I'll post later when I am less pissed off at the stupid internet.
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Hey there Yoshiken, major kudos for filling the slot.
Your defense that you could've hammered Meeple at any time in the name of survival doesn't fly for these reasons.
I made no such defence, or at least did not rely on this (later thought: hmm, Andy later makes a similar argument about the hammer, so there seems to be something to people starting there). That I had the power to hammer Meeple (well, that it looked like I had the power) was key to why I would expect scum to have wanted me offed quickly, which is unrelated. My defence is that the actions I took would have been strictly worse than other actions had I been scum. If I was scum and Meeple was town, then there would be absolutely no point in me turning up and docilely accepting my death - at worst I hammer to kill the cop claim (who in this scenario probably is the cop), look incredibly guilty and waste the next day of the game dealing with me. Sitting back gives town an extra day and ties scum down for at least one night worrying about the cop. Yes? Okay, now get back to the premise of both myself and Meeple being scum. I show up, docilely accept my death and flip scum. People boggle, go through the above thought process and wonder why I didn't hammer the cop claim. Given that Meeple actually isn't the cop, he goes back under the grill far worse than he would have otherwise. No gain, very likely two down very quickly, or at least tied.
Consider this next to the plan of me simply not showing up again, one of the standard scum damage control plans. I inevitably get the hammer vote anyway, and make no more connection to Meeple. Sure, Meeple would still have a lot to answer for and wouldn't just magically get away, but it would have been strictly better than me making a song and dance about it. Also yes, I would claim that me showing up and immediately hammering Meeple would also have been a better plan if we were scumbuddies than what I did, but it's of less interest.
Alex: I see convincing evidence that supports me, so see no reason not to push it. I'm unsurprised that people are skeptical and naturally assume there must be holes, but until someone actually finds one (as I say, it's entirely possible) instead of just waves it off, I will stand by it. I just don't care so much at the moment because I'm not getting the heat I was expecting, so something else has already served its purpose for now.
Xanth, why did you not attempt to preserve your life at the end of day one? You seemed to have logged on, seen sudden death and just given up hope? Shed some light on this for us, can you?
I point you back to the start of the chain. My rival for the chopping block blurted out a cop claim. I had no way of matching that, and as the good little townie boy that I am decided to play in town's best interests rather than my own and weighed it was better to keep the cop claim, who probably actually was the cop, or would be lying scum getting tied down otherwise. Especially when I was taking a lot of flak already as well, where saving my own hide would just waste lots more flak on me the next day as well.
Making sure to clear someone under the assumption that they're you're scumbuddy as well as if you're town boggles the mind. Not sure why you point that out, please explain.
Just because I can disregard that case doesn't mean everyone else will. If I think Delta is town and can argue it independent of my position then that's surely more likely to sway people than covering what is to them just some of the possibilities. I'm not trying to convince myself, after all.
That's quite enough about myself now. Separate post for actually productive stuff.
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Okay, now that I am suitably calm again, lets do this.
ET, your metagaming and your single-minded endeavour to get Xanth lynched worries me. You do not appear to have given serious consideration to anyone else yet. Examples of your behaviour:
(Important parts bolded)
...That's a really odd thing to say, considering previous track record, both overall here at the DL, and on this very page. Posting 3 times in the first 21 posts of the game - 1/7, a lot more than others. The evidence contradicts what you say. This is only important in that you could be setting yourself up with an excuse for lurking later, but I don't see it as a big thing...
On the first bolded piece, you attempt to use meta-gaming knowledge against Xanth, this set alarm bells ringing in my mind, but Meeple was more important at that time. In the second piece, you seem to appear to try and state that he is lurking or setting himself up for lurking later, however, in the same sentence you state that it is no big problem.
Quote 2:
...I agree with both these positions, but I go a step further and combine them. Xanth is usually pretty pro-town...
This was in the same post, your third point. Again, you use examples from other games to state that Xanth is town, however your entire post appears to be centered around accusation, not defense.
Delta - you seem pretty eager to leap onto the back of Andrew's post, without providing anything other than "Yeah, Eviltom! WHY!?"
The reason I agreed with Andrew is because when I looked at his post, it swayed me and I saw things from that perspective, I do agree. I voted for you, since at the moment you are not helping us very much, and I wanted to give you a wake-up call. I will keep my vote there for the time being, since I have seen nothing much of true analysis from you about other players. It is rather annoying, when instead of being single-minded, all you have to do is put some thoughts in on the other players.
Okay then.
Other people:
Xanth - Has made some mistakes during day one, but appears to have become more active and helpful over the last page or so. Mostly neutral on him.
Alex - Somewhat alarming, with his defense of Meeple in Day one:
...I'm not in support of a Meeple lynch at all. The whole discussion about him still seems to revolve around him voting Delta, which is something I can actually see as more likely to come from town than scum...
Although it may have simply been town feeling sorry somewhat for Meeple, there are possibilities. On the fence for this one.
Rat - Seems to be pro-town, even with a bit of inactivity, but is making good points.
Andrew - Again, mostly pro-town, however seems to be a bit peeved with me for agreeing with him.
Yoshiken - Welcome to the game, seems to have done just a little bit of analysis first off, would like some more substantial arguements however, quotes, examples etc.
Snow - A few cock-ups in Day one lowered most people's beliefs of him, I can't really comment on Snow. Seems to be neutral in the ET / Xanth discussion, making points for both players.
El Cid - Contributing positively, appears most likely town right now to me.
Excal - Post more. NAO. Has made a few quick little posts, but appears to have no real stance as of yet. Maybe scummy lurker. Leaning to scum side of the fence on him.
Ryogo - Don't get me started. I want his views on Day one, never mind Day two right now. Just post. Please?
Okay, I've said my piece now. Peace.
Ninja'd by Xanth.
I can see why you didn't defend yourself now, but being so defeatist does still leave a mark on your rep for this game. Thanks for the explanation though.
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Nothing new can really be said on Ryogo given the continued absence other than hoping that he's all right. It has now been notably over two whole days since his last post here, so I'm really looking to see if we're going to get a ruling on the matter. Having said that, there are no explicit deadlines for lurking in the first post in the thread.
Tom and I continue to point fingers strongly at each other without actually listening to the other. I've already said my bit on him more than once, so I'm not going to do this one man tango again. If you have any particular questions ask and I will reply. Seconding that his vote on Delta reads as almost entirely OMGUS.
Now that Strago->Yoshiken has become relevant, a review on Strago: before context comes into play, I'm not seeing him nearly as positive as a few others were. A grand total of one post of note, which was very late into the day. I'm liking what I see there, with bonus points for ragging on Meeple at a point where momentum was ripe for attacking me instead, but negatives for coasting until quite so late on in the first place. Given the context of being busy and all it does now read in retrospect as a well-meaning townsman who just didn't have the time to flex his might as we would have liked.
No real read on Yoshiken so far, but happy with the effort put in to catch up quickly. No prodding required there at all, by the looks of it, so long as he doesn't try to outlast any grace period.
Excal's doing a good job of reducing my suspicions of him, as he's doing a good job of painting himself into a corner otherwise. Logic generally agreed with, and I should apologise - just because I would expect scum to act in that way at that time doesn't mean it would be out of the question for town, and while I knew that at the time I didn't make it clear and say it. Whilst I would have been paying incredibly close attention to you had you posted the warning earlier and unadulterated, posting it with 'edit: okay, there goes that theory' is more likely town than scum in my head anyway.
Has responded positively today, unlike Tom (negatively) and Ryogo (not at all), so is at least on the back burner for now.
Snow: you don't have a vote down, with only mega-lurker Ryogo matching that feat. I'm feeling pretty damn good about you so far, but you should be comparing what your suspects have already done rather than losing half of a game day waiting for more information. In any case, you have more information now anyway, so I hope that's your last stumbling block.
Andy has removed my worry over low presence. Only possible concern is that he's only talked about a fraction of the player base today. I realise that this is probably because you have nothing earth-shattering to say about anyone else, but can I ask for at least a surface sweep on the others? (Oh, and I seem to have missed out responding to your concerns in my previous post, despite referencing it. My lack of a vote for Meeple before I left a handful of hours before the end of the game was a poor calculation caused by underestimating just how turgidly slow that day one was, resulting in a rather optimistic hope that I'd be stimulating discussion if I didn't close options off quite so 'early'.)
I think everyone else has otherwise maintained my views in them. I think the push from this point is really dependent on the conclusion of the whole absence of Ryogo thing, so I want to see that happen soon.
Delta ninja: I wouldn't call it defeatist. Greater good and all that. But never mind.
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So is Ryogo getting replaced/modkilled? Anyway.
It looks like I may have been wrong about Xanth. I was initially suspicious because he hadn't been doing a lot, but he's clearly trying a lot harder now, and earning some town cred. And I decided to stop pointing fingers and start listening >.>
Delta - fair enough. Answers my question. ##unovte Delta
Scanning for other possible scum... I notice Excal has posted freakishly little content. His recent post http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.100 is really the first one that has content. So on closer inspection, it's mostly full of meta, but one bit:
Sadly, since getting up, I've been other work, so not sure where I sit on Ryogo/Tom, and which one makes a better target. But, the only other folks who didn't vote Meep were Alex, Snowfire, myself.
Why am I paired with Ryogo? Why is Ryogo even a lynch candidate for you Excal? AFAIK there hasn't been word of mod.
I've noticed that scum like to dichotomise lynch candidates - so that's been a scumtell I watch for. Ie: 'If I had to pick from X/Y' or 'Which of X/Y would you lynch' etc.
It seems really really weird to say "who should be lynched, EvilTom or the guy who isn't here and might be replaced/modkilled?"
So yeah, that's pretty scummy, looking for explanation there. And also scummyness for low presence, low content.
##Vote Excal
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First off: Ryogo's been idle for over twenty-four hours now. This is beginning to exceed lurker territory. Mod: any idea on Ryogo's status?
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Your defense that you could've hammered Meeple at any time in the name of survival doesn't fly for these reasons.
I made no such defence, or at least did not rely on this (later thought: hmm, Andy later makes a similar argument about the hammer, so there seems to be something to people starting there).
Actually, you've used this in your defense several times. You're right in that you've never outright said, "I didn't hammer Meeple, therefore I am Town," but based on the increasingly convoluted logic you've been using to try and exonerate yourself on account of your final day one posts, it is very easy to come away with this impression. Notable selections:
As much as some people are reading yesterday's last minute circumstances as at best neutral for me, I will at least try to argue for my sake that if I was scum looking for damage control then that was a really bad course of action for me, because if I was lynched (and I hope everyone at least agrees I was expecting to get lynched) and flipped scum then people would boggle as to why I didn't just hammer Meeple and at worst get lynched the next day instead, which would lead to people working out Meeple's fake claim much quicker (and wouldn't risk the actual cop). No gain anywhere. The correct course of action in that case would have been for me to remain silent and just naturally gain the next vote, as really would have happened with the cop claim. My own farewells make no sense if I then flipped scum, but I won't make a big deal out of that.
Which brings me to the rather interesting time frame of the 'sudden death' last night. Given that my vote wasn't down on Meeple, I'm surprised that team scum would not be more afraid about my ability to invoke survivalism to kill their teammate regardless of the claim, especially when I'd made it pretty clear that I'd be returning quite shortly after the deadline. I'd expect scum with the power to do so to have used the perfectly reasonable excuse of 'putting the hammer down before Xanth gets the time to hammer the copclaim', so I'm inclined to believe more in those who could but didn't, which mostly throws up the people already covered one way or another - Bardiche, Snowfire and Cid. Alex also gains some credit even though he announced an intent to hammer, because again he could have just said that the rest could wait until the start of day two if he was scum worried about my impending return (it's not like he would have taken flak for making Snowfire wait).
Don't wave away my logic for last night as 'who knows what scum could have been doing' when I'm demonstrating how nonsensical it would be for those actions. "Anything's possible" is just a good blanket justification for attacking any position. I patently did not expect to survive (who other than me could have hammered Meeple under those claim circumstances and not been strung up themselves the next day? Unless you are making a ridiculous claim of Meeple/Xanth/Rat all scum, there's no way this position was orchestrated), in which case you should be arguing that I was theoretically trying to sacrifice myself to save Meeple, but my case is that if I was scum then I wouldn't have saved anything and would have gained nothing for it, with really obvious better alternatives available.
Throughout all of these posts is a frustrating willingness to ignore a simple fact of DL Mafia: hammering someone when there's still lively discussion going on looks bad regardless of who's doing it, and this alone is simple enough to explain why the various theories posited in the above paragraphs didn't actually happen. You repeatedly suggest that the simple fact of you or someone else not doing something impulsive means that you're town. That's not what it means it all. It just demonstrates a working knowledge of the dynamics of DL mafia and a lack of suicidal impulses, which are not exactly alignment-specific traits. You overlook this time and again in order to paint yourself in the best possible light. This defense has become very tiresome and I'm beginning to wonder if it isn't meant in part to distract from your posting prior to sudden death (as this was mostly fluff).
Andy also raises a very good point: you never made a roleclaim or even offered to do so despite giving every outward appearance of being ready to die. Given that it's almost an accident that Meeple got lynched yesterday instead of you, this seems very odd to me. Explanation, please?
~
Need to look at recent posts from Delta and Yoshi since I don't have a strong impression of them at present. So, more to come.
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Meeple's flip DID give Xanth town points to me, if only because it is so very unlikely that both trains were scum.
Invoking probability, Rat? I must point out that statistically unlikely =/= impossible. It's also not really relevant because we don't pick lynches by drawing lots
Nevertheless, I agree with your observations immediately following the above quote. Xanth spends an alarming amount of time saying "If I was scum, I would/wouldn't do this."
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Note for Tom: I should reiterate that it was the singlemindedness with which you pursued Xanth that bothered me, not the simple fact that you were attacking him; wasn't demanding that you drop the matter altogether, just pointing out that it would be more constructive to diversify. I say this now because it bothers me how easily people are letting Xanth slide for a lackluster day one and his rather tortuous self-defense posts from today. In fact--
Note for Snowfire: You've been an opponent of any case against Xanth since day one, but I can't recall seeing any justification more involved than "I just don't buy it." I continue to be bothered by this much trust being placed in another player from early on in the game. Can you please explain your reasoning?
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Casual read of Yoshipost mostly leaves me wondering if he has more on Alex than just his stance on Meeple vs. Xanth yesterday. Elaborate, Yoshi?
~
Breakdown of where I see people right now:
Xanth/Ryogo/Excal: Most notable suspects.
Snowfire/Delta/Andy: Not really a concern at present. I buy AlexRat's explanations for Snowfire and for now at least I'm inclined to overlook Delta and Andy for their early Meeple votes.
Yoshi/Tom: No strong read either way. Some misgivings about their logic but not enough to make them read as scum. Case against Tom in particular seems overblown and not enough for a lynch today; he has excesses worth chiding him for but not ones that read as scum to me.
Rat/Alex: Pretty towny, haven't found much I can hold against them.
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Checking his profile, last time he was active was March 5th, around the time of his last post. Given the amount of turnover we've had both before the game and during, I'm gonna delay dealing with Ryogo until the day ends, though. At night I'll either find a replacement or modkill him.
Votecount:
Strago (0): Cid
Ryogo (3): Alex, Cid, Rat
EvilTom (3): Xanth, Andy, Delta
Delta (0): EvilTom
Alex (1): Yoshiken
Excal (1): EvilTom
There are 12 hours left in Day Two.
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
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General maintenance note: I guess it is the weekend. I hate to be the extension guy, but any thoughts on an extension to give our missing players time to catch up (or the same for their replacements)? (An extension not for my sake this time!)
Delta: I most certainly am not neutral in the Xanth / EvilTom debate; as noted before, I buy Xanth's towniness and am suspicious of EvilTom for, if for no other reason, him ringleading the "not-Meeple" train on Day1. You're probably referring to one point on which I agreed with Tom over Xanth, that of how "towny" Carthrat is.
El Cideon: Yeah, my apologies, you needled me about that before and I missed adding it to my reply. To clarify: Xanth is not "cleared" in my book, like he would if a confirmed cop said so or he'd done something like, well, what you did in Mai-Hime mafia (lead a train from nowhere against the Godfather when plenty of other cases existed). However he's certainly in the top 3 towniest list for me. I suppose grilling him is all well and good, but I certainly would be quite opposed to spending a valuable lynch on such a candidate.
I mostly agree with logic that Xanth and others have put forward on this, but I suppose you want to hear it in my own words. The initial train against Xanth had one of its main salient points "Xanth said he can't post that much, but we know that can't be true!" This is just silly. Times change, and attacking him for something like that strikes me as the bad kind of metagaming. I'm not sure it's even effective metagaming either since it's so likely it could be legitimate. And when the lynch time came - basically see Xanth's logic. Xanth sits there claiming town and going down for the greater good and OMG he flipped scum and did not hammer the cop when he could have?! Why on earth would mafia pass up the chance to, at worst, trade one of their own for the cop (since Xanth would surely have been lynched round 2)? Assuming that Meeple was not a COMPLETE newbie who was a townie doing the false copclaim, the possibilities are basically only: Meeple was scum.
Xanth: I was hoping that Excal / Ryogo would show up so I could assess them better and knew I could get online today to vote. Since dropping a vote on a lurker would be questionably productive...
## VOTE: EvilTom
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The main problem wasn't merely his stance of pro-Meeple, anti-Xanth, but more the approach he took to these stances. For example:
Rant goes here about how Meeple and Snowfire did the exact same thing today, except Meeple admitted he was wrong and tried to get away while Snowfire just walked off whistling and everyone ignored it. What in the heck, people.
I'm simply seeing this as trying to draw attention from Meep to Snow which, assuming scumAlex, would be beneficial regardless of Snow's alignment due to Rolecop, and if townAlex, would have been a really blind move - too much trust for Day1, especially with us now knowing Meep was scum.
Excal, Ryogo and to some extent Delta are giving me bad vibes right now. The first two obviously were on the not-Meeple trains early and didn't want to switch. In less tangible terms, I went "Wait, Excal's in this game?" when he posted in sudden death, and am still going "Wait, Ryogo's in this game?" right now. That's enough for me to lay one down on him here.
##Vote: Ryogo
Delta, well, straight up, Delta is Delta, day 1 scum lynches are pretty weird, and Delta on a scum team is one of the ways I can see them happening. We aren't really likely to get much out of him no matter what, though. So hm.
This seems very odd to me indeed. This sort of voting is the exact reason Meeple went in Day1, yet he then goes on to do the exact same? This either strikes me as a huge mistake or a double bluff. I'm also interested in knowing why Delta being scum would mean scum gets lynched.
If Meeple+Snowfire were scum, Snow would have no reason to refrain from hammering Xanth in sudden death, and would have had every reason earlier to get a vote down somewhere and try to roll with a train that wasn't Meeple. OR be on or "mistakenly" hammer Meeple for town cred. What he did do strikes me as the least likely course of action if he were Meeple's scum buddy. Unless we're dealing with the least coordinated scum team ever...
.... which is a possibility I would ascribe only if Delta is somehow involved. The possibilities Xanth points out as clearing Delta are exactly why I remain uneasy about Delta.
Now this is interesting. Let's see... Looking over Snow's posts from Pages 2 & 3, there is not even a single mention of the Meeple/Xanth situation. So, if he were scum and then suddenly hammers Xanth, wouldn't that just raise suspicion? But then, if he hammers Meeple, he risks taking out an ally when there's a chance of townXanth going. If scumXanth, we aren't certain if Xanth has a role, which could be more helpful for scum. So, overall, seems like suspicion on Snow is still possible by this logic, which makes me wonder again why you suddenly turned to the inactives.
Same as above quote with the Delta thing, too. Something I've missed?
And, just to finish off...
- Everything I said about Snowfire earlier still holds, and is amplified by his unvoting, not talking about anyone he finds scummy and leaving a note that he may not even be back or have a vote down at deadline. Whaaaaat? Snow, who do you think is scum? Everyone else, why do I see him getting a free pass for this?
Xanth, quick rundown on who you think is scummy and why while we're waiting?
To refer to Tom's argument against Excal earlier...
I've noticed that scum like to dichotomise lynch candidates - so that's been a scumtell I watch for. Ie: 'If I had to pick from X/Y' or 'Which of X/Y would you lynch' etc.
tl;dr - Alex's logic for townSnow is majorly flawed, and he seems to be doing the same thing Meeple did. Double bluff?
ninja'd by Snow: I'm interested in knowing where you stood on Xanth/Meeple at Day1. I know you say townXanth now, but did you think that then, and did you think townMeeple?
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All re: Cid:
Great, you have now forced out of me something I've tried not to draw attention to. My claim was irrelevant at the time after I decided my life was worth less than a cop claim's, but no, I don't want to claim now that I'm not immediately under fire as I am not vanilla. I did not wish to broadcast as much, but hey, it's entirely possible you just missed the connection. I'd still very much like to leave the specifics in the grey, unless you're going to push this unreasonably hard.
You keep on missing the point of my defence, as well, which is really, really frustrating. I keep on repeating myself because people keep on skipping the start and finding problems with later content. Of your three quoted sections (not including the intro one):
The third one is actually irrelevant. If we add your clause then this actually gets stronger, as it means that it was strictly even harder for anyone to vote for Meeple. The only conclusion from this section was that if there was a scum plot involving me at the end, then it must have involved me trying to die there, not survive.
The second one is granted, but not related to the defence at all. The only conclusion dependent on that section is ironically in fact my support for you (okay, and on Alex as well).
The first one is the important one. Please. Listen.
1) Imagine a mythical alternate game where I am scum and Meeple is town, but everything else that's happened is somehow the same. In this theoretical game it is strictly pointless for me not to hammer Meeple. If I do hammer, yes, I agree, I almost certainly take a hell of a lot of flak and go down in fire the next day. Let's assume that does happen. In that case, the cop claim (in this world probably the cop, and so a big town loss) gets lynched day one, and town then has to waste another day putting me away. Compare this to accepting my death: mafia either have to spend a night tapping the cop claim or worry about the power of an open cop, and town don't lose the second day dealing with me. Scum lose a night and a guaranteed [probable-]cop kill and town gain a day by me sitting there and taking the hammer - major loss. The fact that my lynching may be nearly inevitable does not change it being considerably better for me to hammer Meeple in this situation.
Yes? Agree with this game theory or not?
2) Right, now let's assume that both Meeple and I are scum, and I give up to protect Meeple. I then flip scum for all to see. People then think through case 1) and wonder why I didn't kill the cop claim for massive gain. Meeple thus takes additional flak.
Now yes, Meeple would be under a big spotlight and a lot of heat regardless. This would still generate more, and quickly. I would have thought a hell of a lot more, but I'm less convinced by people's reactions. This is without even worrying about whether an/the actual cop has to risk their own life to take him down or other flangy elements that effect gain and loss for the sides.
3) Now assume that we're both scum, but instead of making a song and dance about it at the end, I simply do not return and wait for the hammer, which would come. We're now in the same position as before, except that Meeple's not taking extra heat from applying case 1) to case 2). Still weighed down, for sure, but still better off.
From this we conclude that case 3) is trivially better for scum than case 2), right? I think there are other cases that are more beneficial for the theoretical scum team to go with, but this one has the same aim (damage control) but is strictly better whilst involving no changes until right near the end, which are obvious.
By now comparing cases 2) and 3) against what actually happened, we conclude that I really shouldn't be scum unless I'm stupid.
Right. There I go again. Please let that be the last. As I say, I freely believe that there may be holes in there somewhere to be resolved or debunk it, but I'm just hearing unrelated issues. It's annoying that I'm now getting slapped with pulling the same thing over and over again when I'm only doing so for this reason.
Now to look for new stuff to talk about.
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Checking his profile, last time he was active was March 5th, around the time of his last post. Given the amount of turnover we've had both before the game and during, I'm gonna delay dealing with Ryogo until the day ends, though. At night I'll either find a replacement or modkill him.
I see your intentions, Sopko, but this isn't helpful.
If I expect him to be modkilled, then I'll definitely leave him and pursue a different target, which at this point leaves Tom head and shoulders above the rest. If I expect him to survive, I may want to lynch him ahead of Tom.
What should the people already on Ryogo be doing?
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First off: ##Unvote: Ryogo. No need to spend a lynch on him if he stands a chance of being modkilled tonight.
Snowfire: It's not the simple fact of Xanth making excuses, it's the amount of posts he spent day one talking about himself, his schedule and his playstyle in general. I suppose this stuff is nice to know and all, but it'd be a lot better to use that time for actually hunting scum. It read to me like an evasion of genuine scumhunting and still does.
~
Yoshi: Voting for Delta yesterday is not comparable to voting Ryogo today. Ryogo is a genuine lurker--he was here yesterday, fairly active for the first half of the day, but disappeared once things got hairy. Delta for most of day one was genuinely not in the game--he hadn't posted, there was nothing people voting on him could ask him to answer because he had no material on the record. This is a significant difference to me. I must also point out that Alex's vote for Ryogo happened just as this game-day began. At that time, it was not unreasonable to assume that Ryogo would be back. If Alex keeps pushing for Ryogo's lynch in light of the looming modkill, then I'll grant that there's a parallel. As it stands, though, I don't believe the comparison is accurate.
I'd also like to point out a flaw in the following comparison:
- Everything I said about Snowfire earlier still holds, and is amplified by his unvoting, not talking about anyone he finds scummy and leaving a note that he may not even be back or have a vote down at deadline. Whaaaaat? Snow, who do you think is scum? Everyone else, why do I see him getting a free pass for this?
Xanth, quick rundown on who you think is scummy and why while we're waiting?
To refer to Tom's argument against Excal earlier...
I've noticed that scum like to dichotomise lynch candidates - so that's been a scumtell I watch for. Ie: 'If I had to pick from X/Y' or 'Which of X/Y would you lynch' etc.
I don't believe that the Alex quotes you selected represent precisely the sort of behavior that Tom described. Alex outright asked people "Who do you find scummy?" Not "Out of these options, pick one," no attempts to nudge people down one of two paths.
~
Alright, we've got half a day left here. I'm not climbing on the Tom train because I think that there are better cases around.
Given that a Xanth lynch seems unlikely to happen (given the amount of people voting Tom precisely because of his fight with Xanth) I'm going to act ony my earlier notion that either Xanth or his first voters are likely scum. Since Ryogo might be eating a modkill soon, this means I'm going after Excal. I'll get to him in a minute, but...
...blurgh, major Xanth ninja. Moment while I read this.
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Mmmmrf. Yeah, I've kinda been waiting for Ryogo to come back and respond, but it seems like that isn't going to happen.
Thing is, with the way Meeple got hung out yesterday, I'm thinking his scumbuddy(ies?) are most likely to be found among people who dropped off the face of the earth yesterday without doing much to save him. I mean, *I* was one of the most if not the most vocal people saying don't lynch Meeple, and I know I'm town and was wrong, so... yes, I kinda DO want to keep pushing Ryogo, and Strago/Yoshiken getting a pass for replacing doesn't sit well with me either even though I agreed with the few things Strago did come around and say.
But even though I think the odds are >50% that scum are among the people dropping out, Yoshi and Cid and etc are directly saying they're off the table for today. So... well, fine, I guess. Lurkers kill Mafia.
The person who looks the next scummiest to me is Excal. He was on Xanth instead of Meeple, encouraged a Xanth hammer, so forth, and additionally has come off to me as keeping a low profile this game, although there isn't anything in particular I can quote to back that up - by its very nature. One thing that does stand out, though, is his passing up the case on myself and saying I've played a good game for town. This is weird. When I saw Meeple's flip, I expected to come under heavy fire today for having been wrong about him, such as Yoshiken is putting forth. That fire is obviously erroneous, but at least it's understandable. Ignoring me to focus on Tom, Xanth, etc is also understandable. "Oh yeah he's totally townie guys," given the situation, is... not so much.
Not sure what to do with my vote right now.
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Xanth, the existence of the Scenario 1 you outline is exactly why I'm having problems with you this game. I'm not concerned with mythical alternate games. Even when employed for the sake of analogy, I don't find this approach very useful. Scenarios 2 and 3 attempt to posit the ideal actions for a Meeple/Xanth scumteam to take, but this is also irrelevant. If you and Meeple are both scum this game, then Scum was in a lose/lose situation yesterday and all they could do was try and cut their losses; there was no ideal outcome and they were going to get burned no matter what. While scenarios 2 and 3 are reasonable on many points, they also assume time and again that scum will always do what's best for them. This is a fallacy. Scum can panic and screw up just like everybody else. This is my problem with elaborate theoretical scenarios like those you've outlined. They presume far too much and I'd rather see people examining the record and using it to interrogate others (this is where I note that your last post on page five is a step in the right direction).
The bottom line is that your actions late yesterday make just as much sense to me for Panicked Scum Xanth as they do for Worried Town Xanth. I stated this a long time ago and I'm rather amazed that we're still talking about it. I'm officially dropping the topic since I don't think it's very helpful for either of us at this point. This isn't fiat, this isn't me saying "I won" and walking away, it's acknowledgement that all we're doing is talking in circles and there are better ways to spend our time.
(Slightly off-topic: it strikes me as odd that you value the possibility of a power role (Meeple's stated copclaim) over one that you know exists (I.E., whatever it is that you have). Was Meeple really that convincing?)
With all that out of the way, I'll ask a question directly which will hopefully steer us down a more productive avenue of discussion: Xanth, concisely tell us who you think are the three most likely candidates for scum right now, and why?
~
Anyway! Excal stuff, next post. Yes.
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First off: ##Vote: Excal
Because Alex just summed up my thoughts exactly. Low presence, on the Xanth train yesterday and I've stated that likely Xanth or his early voters were scum...
But Alex, who exactly are the people "dropping out," as you say? Most of the living players were on either Meeple or Xanth by the end of yesterday. Four people weren't: Xanth, Strago/Yoshi, Snowfire (whom you yourself have stopped looking at,) and yourself (I assume you are not presenting yourself as a candidate, of course, just noting this for completeness). Who would you have us pursue?
I must confess that I'm a little amused at your confusion over you not garnering much suspicion for speaking out against Meeplelynching yesterday. Do you think this makes any player in particular look odd or is it just a general impression?
~
Commencing archive digging to see if Excal posts contain material that corroborates my suspicion of him (currently based mostly on lurking and my notion of either Xanth vs. his day 1 voters being scum).
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At work. Can post in 1.5 h.
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Right, Excal posts include the following:
Page 1: Joke vote. Everybody has one of those, moving along.
Page 2: Some agreement with other people; Xanth vote, mostly stems from Excal finding Xanth's attack on me insubstantial.
Page 3: Nothing else until sudden death. Says he's fine with a Xanth hammer, doesn't elaborate. Laments the suckiness of us being in sudden death with a copclaim in the mix, worries about ninjahammers based on survivalism.
Page 4: Hammer, stop talking. Moving along.
Page 5: Talks about yesterday's flip casting things in a new light, and so on. This is the most substantial post he's had and he still doesn't come out of it accusing anyone or voting.
Yeah, I'm happy with my vote for now, sounds like a good bet. Will be interesting to see what Excal says when he gets back.
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Responses:
El Cid: A fair enough point about why you were suspicious of Xanth. As for your anti-Xanth logic... oh, I absolutely agree, scum do screw up. But think of it this way: the argument against Meeple was that a 2nd vote on Delta was a mistake. And mistakes come either from players (town or Mafia) who don't think things through enough, or from mafia intentionally trying to guide the lynch in the wrong way. So there's some logic to hitting on players making unhelpful points. So if people making townie mistakes are more likely to be scum, people who made scum "mistakes" are less likely to be scum.
Yoshiken: As others have noted, thanks for filling in, first. Re your question about my earlier stance on Meeple/Xanth... Day1 was a scheduling disaster for me, as you'll note in my posts. I had time in the morning for a quick defense of my earlier post but not to evaluate others for votes, and when I arrived home we were already in sudden death (when I thought I would be arriving to the last hour of discussion). The most I got out was that I didn't buy either train and would advocate any other option, but I had no time for much elaboration.
As for what I thought then... I've actually already covered this in my earlier posts on Day 2, but sure. Meeple struck me as a random lynch - we were lynching him for a Meeple mistake, not necessarily a scum mistake (i.e. if Meeple had been town, he might well have done the same thing). That still might be true - we'll have to ask him afterward - but whatever, as Day1 lynches tend to be close to random anyway. That said, once I had actually gotten home, Meeple had copclaimed and a Meeple lynch went from meh idea -> horrible idea. Xanth struck me as set upon purely for warning people about his posting style. Having seen El Cid's comments, I suppose he was also being attacked for not providing enough good content in his posts, but then again that was true of lots of other people. In general it felt like people were jumping on it for either A) Bad reasons or B) Scummy reasons, i.e. there's a train going so let's lynch Xanth.
---
As for in general.... well, nothing's really developed from the people I'm interested in hearing from in the past few hours, so my suspicions toward the Day1 lynch-Xanth train remain.
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"People dropping out" = Ryogo and Strago/Yoshi, as I mentioned, and to a somewhat lesser extent Delta and Snowfire. I'm virtually certain that at least one of these four is scum, based on Meeple getting lynched.
I think specifically saying I look townie at this point makes Excal look very odd. Sorry if that was unclear.
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Yeesh, Alex, have you already forgotten the conversations we've had about how I think completely at cross directions from you? The stuff you thrive on puts me to sleep, while my methods of getting stuff done used to be called useless bs back in the less civil days.
Anyways, almost done getting what I need to decide if I'm actually on to something worth posting.
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Alright... let's do this thing. Not sure how coherant I'll be, but I'm not gonna go down without at least something what looks like a fight.
Starters, I agree with the idea that there was at least one scum member besides Meeple on the Xanth train. Not sure I believe they were all there, but at least one was. Tom, if you're listening, that's a large part of the reason why I went with two people, with you as one of them.
So, since who voted for Meeple and Xanth, and when they did it, I drew up a list of post number and person, with a quick summary of why.
Meep vs. Xanth vote counts/timing
Meeple - #4, El Cid - Joke
Xanth - #13, Ryogo - Joke
UnMeep - #20, El Cid - Starting Andy case
Meeple - #25, Bard - Be decisive!
Meeple - #32, Andy - Why did you waffle?
Xanth - #36, Excal - Uncomfortable
Meeple - #39, Rat - Finds him odd
Meeple - #44, El Cid - Break Deadlock
Xanth - #51, Dread Thomas - Xanth must die!
Meeple - #55, Delta - Bad feeling worse for Meeple than Xanth
Xanth - #60, Meeple - I want to live!
The fun thing here is, these votes are spread throughout the day. And while there's a three hour difference between Andy's vote and my own that tie Xanth and Meep, Meeple doesn't truly wind up in danger until Cid votes, several hours behind that. After all, there were plenty of people at two votes, and it was possible someone else could have slipped. Or that there would be a sudden reversal. It's happened before, and Snowfire was looking like a possible candidate for a time (so much so that I'm actually kind of curious why no votes went his way. It must have either been because he is scum, or because Xanth looked a better target)
Cid's vote comes with about a day left, which is plenty of time for things to happen. And which also means that I have a hard time buying the panicking scum theory. They had time to all be awake and discuss what to do. At this point, Meeple starts looking for new targets, and then Tom helps push Xanth into a position to stand out with his directed attack. That's the point where Xanth stands out and we get our stalemate.
Let's face it, Xanth wasn't actually a rival to Meeple until that point. You also had Snowfire realistically in the running. However, Xanth had a few advantages Snowfire didn't. His misfortune was a lot less under his control, as it seems to mostly be a series of misunderstandings and overly aggressive behaviour between him and Cid. Not only that, but he had two people on him that had given practically nothing in terms of solid argumentation on him, which would serve as good cover.
Finally, there is one more point I'd like to bring forward.
I've noticed that scum like to dichotomise lynch candidates - so that's been a scumtell I watch for. Ie: 'If I had to pick from X/Y' or 'Which of X/Y would you lynch' etc.
However, taking into account how Meep has played previous games, Xanth's actions look a lot worse. So choosing between the two of them, I go with:
##Vote: Xanth
Of course, in that same post he refers to Snow as an unknown despite being in roughly the same position. But, it certainly wasn't a race between Xanth and Meeple until Tom made it one. And, in that same post, he showed that he was thinking in that dichotemy he uses as a scum tell when deciding in favour of the non-Meeple candidate, at a crucial point.
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Oh, by the by, since I completely forgot to do this.
##Vote: Dread Thomas
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Tch. Unless my count is mistaken, that puts Tom at -1. Please unvote and do not lynch Tom. Didn't want to have to do this yet, but I can affirm that he is town for role-related reasons.
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..... well that was a waste of an hour then.
##Unvote: Lucky Tom
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##Unvote: Tom
##Vote: Ryogo
Unless there's another plan, this is the quickest way to put him out of the lead.
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Also yes, I'm around, but doing other stuff with housemates, hence emergency call out but not engaging otherwise.
Not sure why Alex is quite so sure, but shan't push at this point.
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Meeple struck me as a random lynch - we were lynching him for a Meeple mistake, not necessarily a scum mistake (i.e. if Meeple had been town, he might well have done the same thing).
Let me again express my distaste for anyone getting a free pass for "mistakes" just because of who they are. The simple fact that Meeple did turn out to be scum should demonstrate the risk in doing this. Beyond that, however, I find it very worrisome to see the definition of "mistakes" (misunderstandings, misreading something, mixing up who voted for who, forgetting something, little things that anyone can do) expanded to cover genuinely scummy behavior. Meeple's infraction was bad logic--trying to build on a case that didn't really exist. This is why I went after him in the first place, and if this kind of play can get passed off as simple mistakes then I don't know what criteria we have to judge scumminess at all.
As for the "town mistakes" vs. "scum mistakes" section: I do not comprehend. I don't know what else to say to that.
~
Alright, Alex, as for your four suspects? I'm still inclined to discount Delta. His vote put Meeple in the lead at a time when there was seemingly still a tie ("seemingly" because of the Carthrat vote that no one noticed,) so I'm not inclined to think of him as scum right now. If you have a more concrete reason for suspecting him, I'll listen, but I feel he's the least suspicious of your selections. Ryogo has the whole looming-modkill thing going, so I'd rather not use our lynch for him. Yoshi and Snowfire are more viable. I need to reread Strago/Yoshi stuff to have a strong opinion, but statements like the one quoted above are making me a little leery of Snowfire in spite of the fact that him being scum would make yesterday awkward to interpret.
~
Man, we need a fresh voice in this dialogue. Rat-chan, where are you?
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Reason? It's Delta. Call it metagaming if you will, I guess that's what it is, but "his behavior would be stupid if he was scum" does not clear Delta to me. SOMETHING dumb went down on the scum side, that much is clear. I agree he's the least or second least suspicious, though.
It should be noted that I won't be around much later tonight or tomorrow.
I'd still prefer Ryogo lynched, but looming modkill complicates matters. Gwargh.
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I still fail to see why you see me as a suspicious candidate, Alex, when you have no real evidence to back up the claim you just made.
Reason? It's Delta.
Honestly, what? I would like to know how you know Eviltom is supposedly town. Role-related reasons does not make you insta-town, and has opened you up to the scum.
...but I can affirm that he is town for role-related reasons...
This 'snippet' of a role-claim should be interesting to watch over the next few days. I want you to give some actual evidence that makes me scum, then I will find you serious enough for a proper debate, instead of metagaming, and trying to draw attention to me. In all honesty, the simple fact is that I have improved enough as a player to actually contribute, instead of sit back and learn how to play.
In my eyes, this has not had a nice effect on Alex's alignment. Personally, I am staying on Eviltom for now, but ##FoS:Sir Alex for now.
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Did some rereading, focusing on the people Alex singled out.
Delta thoughts: Contributions are light given the delayed entry, but I can't find anything to hold against him. And again, pushing Meeple in the lead yesterday speaks in his favor.
Snowfire thoughts: I still can't make heads or tails of him. Mrph.
Strago/Yoshi thoughts: Strago made only one truly substantial post the first day (here: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?action=post;quote=52528;topic=3003.50;num_replies=144;sesc=ed705112e055e3ea9ad58bf40ae98c77). It's rather noncommittal, agreeing with criticism of Meeple but not going so far as to cast a vote for him. Strago did not have a vote down at the end of the day, making him the only player with this distinction. Possible scum. Yoshiken mainly has the Alex case going for him, which I disagree with but can see coming from a townie.
Right, so, Ryogo. Among his limited material is extremely tentative support for the Meeple train, taking a backseat to Xanth voting. "Defiantly not my #1 lynch candidate right now, but keep a pair of eyes (Or trio, in the case of Blinky) on the man to be safe." In other words, he was ready to vote Meeple later if he had to but would've preferred not to. I find it real easy to read this as scum setting up an insurance policy just in case the tide of the game later made a Meeple lynch unavoidable--if that happened, he could follow through on his earlier "suspicions" and at least get some townie cred out of the situation.
I think it quite likely that Ryogo is scum, but still don't favor using our lynch on someone who might be getting modkilled tonight. Strongly believe that Excal is our best option for today and request everyone's input. There are only four hours or so left in the day and Tom's still in the lead votewise. There are some people we haven't heard from in a while. Aaaaandy, what's up man~
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I really ought to chip in before I head off to sleep, but I'm mostly frustrated at the stagnation but don't have the energy to do anything about it.
On one hand, I believe strongly that town shouldn't waste the lynch on someone who's about to get modkilled anyway (not that that's guaranteed yet anyway).
On the other, I don't buy into any of the others at the moment at this point enough to make it anything better than another crapshoot. Sorry Cid, but Excal keeps on chipping away at my desire to get him lynched (for now, at least). Worse than that, it's for flangey reasons that you won't like, like how his logic would just be writing himself into a corner if he were scum.
A quick check would seem to put it at Tom and Ryogo both on three (please recheck if you want to actually do something), so I'm unwilling to drop my vote on Ryogo to safeguard against Tom getting screwed by inactivity. If there is a good push otherwise, I only hope this doesn't get in the way.
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Am I supposed to roleclaim now, or are you guys content with Alex's word? Because it seems Delta isn't.
I'll roleclaim if need be, but I'd rather not give scum anything if we don't need to.
I'll post this before I catch up.
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Xanth: Ah, you're correct. I'd miscounted by one. Anyway, things running into sudden death again would be various shades of asdfghjkl, but still better than us limping towards a Tom lynch with only three votes on him, in my opinion. I'd say leave the vote where it is for now.
Tom: Ehhh...I don't think roleclaiming is absolutely necessary just yet (I have a pretty good idea what you'd say anyway). Up to you if you think it's the only way to convince people, though.
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Cid: Well ok I'll try and avoid it for as long as possible then.
##Unvote Excal
##Vote Ryogo
(For obvious reasons)
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Yoshi: Voting for Delta yesterday is not comparable to voting Ryogo today. Ryogo is a genuine lurker--he was here yesterday, fairly active for the first half of the day, but disappeared once things got hairy. Delta for most of day one was genuinely not in the game--he hadn't posted, there was nothing people voting on him could ask him to answer because he had no material on the record. This is a significant difference to me. I must also point out that Alex's vote for Ryogo happened just as this game-day began. At that time, it was not unreasonable to assume that Ryogo would be back. If Alex keeps pushing for Ryogo's lynch in light of the looming modkill, then I'll grant that there's a parallel. As it stands, though, I don't believe the comparison is accurate.
I'd also like to point out a flaw in the following comparison:
- Everything I said about Snowfire earlier still holds, and is amplified by his unvoting, not talking about anyone he finds scummy and leaving a note that he may not even be back or have a vote down at deadline. Whaaaaat? Snow, who do you think is scum? Everyone else, why do I see him getting a free pass for this?
Xanth, quick rundown on who you think is scummy and why while we're waiting?
To refer to Tom's argument against Excal earlier...
I've noticed that scum like to dichotomise lynch candidates - so that's been a scumtell I watch for. Ie: 'If I had to pick from X/Y' or 'Which of X/Y would you lynch' etc.
I don't believe that the Alex quotes you selected represent precisely the sort of behavior that Tom described. Alex outright asked people "Who do you find scummy?" Not "Out of these options, pick one," no attempts to nudge people down one of two paths.
Hrm. This has made me consider this quite a bit... I'd change vote for Excal/Tom (would need more analysis to decide which), but I'd still like Alex to answer for the points on my last post. Seems he's made a good effort to not respond to those on this page, whether accidental or intentional. Until then, seeing as I'm not likely to be here for the end of the day, I guess there's not much left I can do. I understand my vote for Alex won't do much, but I'll leave it there regardless - suspicions not entirely clear, but it probably won't affect final outcomes anyway, ne?
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All these mysterious mysteries with roles crawling out the woodwork a short time before lynch. Colour me unsurprised. Delta said pretty much what I'm thinking about Alex's pseudoclaim.
Agreeing with Cid's assessment of Delta, on that note. If he was setting out to bus meeple... I can't imagine why he'd do that with Xanth right there, short of a delta/xanth/meeple scumteam (which brings me to the question of why xanth didn't shoot down Meeple, if that's direction scum were taking. So yeah it's terribly unlikely.)
I'm pretty comfortable sticking with Ryogo right now, modkill or not- though Excal would probably be my next bet. It worries me that his only significant post has come on the heels of a threat of getting lynched.
Yoshiken: Given that in the previous day, it was a single vote that caused one guy to be lynched over another, I find it strange that you'd discount the effect yours can have. Please reconsider.
Sorry this is so short, unavoidable sleeping mishaps occured.
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I'm heading out now, don't know if I'll be back in time before deadline. I'm no longer on the block, and it doesn't looks like I need to claim, so I'll leave it at that.
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##UNVOTE Dread Thomas
##VOTE Excal
Because of Sir Alex's post.
El Cid: This whole conversation is weird as by the time I had gotten home, Meeple had copclaimed anyway which rendered my earlier thoughts about Meeple mostly moot. Let me just say first that I was agreeing with the substance of your thoughts in general - that mistakes are suspicious and a valid reason to lynch someone. For our case in specific - I thought Meeple's vote against Delta was a minor mistake at worst. Which is why I was not violently opposed to the Meeple train even if I wasn't on it- especially since it was Day1, minor mistakes are likely the only thing the town has to work with - but I wouldn't have thought it was the most productive possible lynch even pre-copclaim. And after the copclaim... hammering Meeple would have been lunacy, which is why I didn't.
As for my comment on town mistakes / scum mistakes... I'll give it one more try.
Person A has played a horrible game for the town. He's constantly suggesting bad lynches on specious grounds.
Person B has played a normal townie game.
Person C has ringlead a successful lynch of a mafia member.
It's not rocket science to say that while even Person C might be mafia on some kind of gambit, they're lower on the suspicion scale than B, which is lower than A.
Now let's reverse that.
Person A has played a game which, if he's scum, makes perfect sense - trying to divert attention from members who are later proven mafia, and saying general bad things about actual mafia members but never really pushing against them.
Person B has played a game that, if scum, he's acted like a normal townie.
Person C has played a game that, if he's scum, he's made major unforced errors, like letting his scumfriends die when he could save them without looking bad.
Again, it's patently obvious that Person A is under more suspicion, and Person C is, if they're scum, screwing up or doing some kind of crazy gambit. Xanth's moves at the end of Day 1 don't strike me as a gambit to gain the town's trust if he was really scum; no, they're errors. Which is possible! But still low on the suspicion scale.
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Tch. I've still got problems trying to decide who seems the most suspicious at the moment - the obvious point is that, if Alex/Tom comes out as town/scum, it's quite likely the other is. And if they come out as one, Excal is most likely the other, and vice versa. Or, at least, that's how I'm seeing things - it had come down to Excal/Tom/Ryogo, and now Ryogo's under modkill risk and Tom's got Alex's claim backing. That only leaves Excal, but only if Alex's claim is to be entirely believed.
For the sole reason that I don't want to be voting a potential town role, I'll:
##Unvote: Alex
##Vote: Excal
As said, seems like the only logical conclusion, assuming Alex's claim is true. If Ryogo returns, easily the most suspicious of the lot solely for the absence, but otherwise, if scumExcal, then yay! If townExcal, I'd safely assume scumAlex & (most probably) scumTom. Either way, it seems voting Excal is gonna be beneficial to town, so I'll go with this.
(Apologies for rushed post - tired and off to sleep. Won't be around for deadline, I assume.)
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So, forty-five minutes left in the day and it looks like we're cruising towards a Ryogo lynch (by my count, he has four votes to Excal's three; could be off, since it's been a while since we had a votecount, but I checked a couple times). Not entirely happy about this since it feels like we're wasting an opportunity by killing someone who's about to get nuked for idleness anyway, but it's still preferable to the shelved Tom train.
Is anyone else around? This much silence just before a deadline is...eerie. (And scary!)
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Vaguely kinda sorta here. What would be really nice is if we could get the modkill on Ryogo and then an extension of a day or so to deal with it. If that won't fly, I'm down with an effective Excal/Ryogo double lynch, I guess.
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Late hammer due to time, stop talking.
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Town felt pretty damn good about themselves after yesterday. No one likes a come from behind lynching quite like Springfield! Losing their respected medical community the night after was unfortunate though. For more reasons than one! That means Dr. Nick Riviera is in charge of the general health and well-being of the town!
But that made them think. How DOES he manage a job at the hospital, several clinics AND make housecalls despite his incompetance? Hell, he's even trusted with quadruple bypass surgeries! It HAS to be due to connections! He's gotta be a Stonecutter!
Sadly, it was only remembered afterwards that Dr. Nick was never a Stonecutter and was still successful. Musta been that smarmy foreign charm.
Good thing that Dr. Nick doesn't qualify as a doctor by any stretch of the imagination.
Votecount:
Strago (0): Cid
Ryogo (4): Alex, Cid, Rat, Xanth, Tom
EvilTom (2): Xanth, Andy, Delta, Snowfire, Excal
Delta (0): EvilTom
Alex (0): Yoshiken
Excal (3): EvilTom, Cid, Snowfire, Yoshiken
Ryogo, AKA Dr. Nick Riviera, VANILLA TOWN, was lynched!
It is now Night Two. Send in night actions!
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Carl couldn't help sticking up for his best pal Lenny. This unfortunately didn't escape the notice of the Stonecutters.
In these troubled times you should never be away from your best friend, but for the life of him Carl had no idea where Lenny lived. So it was only a matter of time before the Stonecutters cornered him alone at night and put a permanent end to the greatest friendship ever told.
"Aw nuts. I mean! ...aw nuts."
SirAlex AKA Carl Carlson, TOWN LIMITED MASON, was killed overnight!
Day Three ends in 48 hours.
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
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I would like to see Xanth and Excal's thoughts on these developments. Excal, especially appears to be lurking, and looking down the recent posts in the topic summary, I cannot see an Excal or Andy post. Post more, you two.
I am going to accept Alex's claims from yesterday, ET would appear to be town. I am shifting towards what Alex said earlier, about an Excal lynch looking good right now. Going to give some proper contribution when people post.
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Wow. That's either really clever or really dumb of scum. Seems like there are some things for me to seriously consider here, especially as, up until late yesterday, I was still suspicious of Alex.
Most suspicious in my eyes now are Excal, Andy & Delta, in that order.
Excal/Andy have both been quite quiet, which seems more than a little suspicious. Excal's higher on the list for the sole reason that he was the first to unvote Tom after Alex's role revelation, yet didn't vote anyone else or even so much as comment on his thoughts on the matter.
Delta... A little more complex than just "he's not around much". Firstly, Alex seems to have been focusing on him quite a bit - knowing the role now, I can't help but wonder why so much attention has been paid specifically to Delta (and also Snow, as it happens, although that was in reverse - Day2, he suddenly took all attention off Snow, giving seemingly bad reasons.) With that said, I'd safely say that if scumSnow -> scumDelta, and if townDelta -> townSnow. (Those don't work in reverse, mind.)
The problem with Delta is the Meeple vote. Even ignoring Rat's unnoticed vote, that would have pushed Meeple into the lead on votes. That's either a very crazy strategy or town, and it just seems too crazy to even risk, unless Xanth is scum with role.
I'm interested in knowing what others think on the matter regarding Delta.
And I can't help but feel there's a flaw in my logic regarding Alex's role, so I'd muchly appreciate some feedback on that.
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##Vote: Excal
Because we should've lynched him yesterday. Low presence, only made a major case when pushed (and said case was against someone I fully believe to be a townie), on the Xanth train day one (see what I've previously said about either Xanth or his early voters being scum; obviously not fullproof, as evidenced by Ryogo's flip, but it's only part of larger case here). Also the only living player who didn't have a vote down by the end of yesterday.
Other stuff: Tom is cleared, let's not waste any more time on his case. The way yesterday sadly limped to a close, with the lynch of someone who was going to be modkilled anyway (and who turned out to be a townie) has me looking very hard at people who were inactive in the latter portion of the day or who had a role in putting Ryogo before Excal. For the first category? Andy. What happened, man. Pretty much everyone else puts their two cents in sometime in the last twelve hours or so before deadline, but you just vanished. This is Not a Good Thing.
People on Ryogo at the end of the day: Alex (irrelevant, since he's dead and flipped town), Tom (pretty much cleared, and the vote was understandable since at the time he made it the choices were himself and Ryogo), Xanth, and Rat. Xanth? You said I wouldn't like your reasons for supporting Excal, but I'm going to need to hear them anyway. Please be concise.
Carthrat. You had a vote sitting on Ryogo at the end of the day but were content to let him swing instead of Excal. You don't really elaborate on why, however, and on rereading your posts I find that you've virtually never talked about Excal--yet you proclaim that Excal is "the next best bet" at the end of day two. This does not make sense and I require an explanation.
~
General impressions of people right now:
Tom/Delta: Pretty confident these guys are town, not really looking at them right now.
Rat: Dunno. Has read as mostly townie but I'm not as confident as about the above two. Little weirded out by how he paid lip service to the possibility of an Excal lynch without actually elaborating on his reasons or committing to this course of action, starting to reconsider by previous assessment that he's town.
Yoshi/Snowfire/Andy: Possible scum. Andy in particular is looking pretty bad for leaving a vote sitting on Tom and not making an appearance later in the day to see if anything changed. Scum find it very convenient to be inactive at times when being present and involved in the discussion might force them to make a choice they don't like (I.E., moving a vote off a townie who was about to be lynched). Would like to hear everyone's thoughts on him right now since I'm increasingly convinced that he's a solid suspect.
Xanth/Excal: Most suspicious.
EDIT: Ack, Yoshininja. Moment.
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Delta... A little more complex than just "he's not around much". Firstly, Alex seems to have been focusing on him quite a bit - knowing the role now, I can't help but wonder why so much attention has been paid specifically to Delta
I doubt Alex's interest in Delta had anything to do with his role, personally. "Limited Mason" suggests to me that he and his partner (I assume Tom) could talk as much as they wanted outside the thread but not bring anyone else into their confidence.
I imagine scum targeted Alex last night because they thought he was suggesting a cop claim. Which makes me wonder if the scum team may comprise our less experienced players (sorry, guys), since I've seen roles like two-man mason cells before and this was the first thing I thought of when it become apparent that both Alex and Tom had roles (Lenny & Carl, life partners! Ahahaha. Although I'd caution against inferring roles based on flavor because neither Hibbert nor Dr. Nick were docs--and because, well, see day one Meeple--it seems it was accurate in this case. At my most paranoid I wondered if they might be scum perpetrating a crazy gambit and hoping people would believe it because of LENNY + CARL, but the actual scum have gone and debunked that theory. That's the bright spot in this: losing Alex sucks, but we basically have a confirmed townie in Tom.)
Anyway, as for Delta, I still have a lot of trouble seeing him as scum based on the fact that it was basicaly his vote that pushed Meeple in the lead day one. I'm open to arguments for Scum Delta, but I've asked for this before and no one's been able to produce anything compelling.
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...huh. That means... unless the roles are really screwy, that there were no scum on Xanth's train. And Alex, the guy threatening to hammer, also wasn't scum.
Also, I was totally expecting to be dead and thus, able to get some quality video gaming time in today. But it seems that is not so, so... dangit, gonna actually have to reat stuff and form opinions.
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Just to look over posts from the previous 2 days...
(I've taken out those who've been killed already, just so I can focus on who's left.)
Ryogo (4): Rat, Xanth, Tom
EvilTom (2): Andy, Delta
Excal (3): Cid, Snowfire, Yoshiken
Meeple (5): Andy, Rat, Cid, Delta
Xanth (4): Excal, EvilTom
OK, looking at these... Wow. I'm inclined to say the votes alone point directly to one person - Excal.
##Vote: Excal.
There's also the lurking problem - low number of posts with relatively little content. I'm still surprised there was no comment after removing the vote from Tom...
Snow - I still have my suspicions here - I mentioned those yesterday on the idea of an Alex/Snow scum combo. While Alex has been proved to be town, you've not. I'd like to know your reasons for voting Excal yesterday, since you only mentioned reasons for not voting Tom.
Cid - I'm definitely leaning towards town. Was a major factor in Meeple going, and started the Excal train which, at this point, I think is probably right.
Tom - Nothing much to say, really. Town, simple as that.
Xanth - Waiting to see your comments on the latest developments. I haven't really got much out of your Day2 posts, in all honesty.
Andy - Talk! Definitely suspicious, if only for the fact that you've not been posting. Meep vote good, Tom vote bad, so neutral going by votes. Probably second-most suspicious for me at this point.
Delta - Hrm. Cid does hold a good point on the Meeple-vote. That, and I wasn't particularly sure on the role (thanks for clearing that up, Cid), so nothing particularly bad to say. Still haven't found anything particularly good either, though, so I'm only slightly leaning town here for the Meeple-vote.
Rat - Talk more! Aside from that, I'm leaning town here. Voted Ryogo, said Excal would be 2nd and gave reasons, and voted Meeple Day1. Seems fairly town to me, although that depends on how things develop.
Edit: Excalninja - doesn't change much until he posts again.
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5 Guests, 17 Users (2 Hidden) Users active in past 15 minutes:
Deltaflyer2k8, Pyro, SnowFire, Xeroma, Unoriginal, Dark Holy Elf, Yoshiken, AndrewRogue, ThePiggyman, metroid composite, El Cideon, Excal, dude789, Talaysen, Hunter Sopko
I do hope these two in bold are making their posts now, Snowfire has been online (or at least in this list) since the game day started.
That said, ##Vote: Excal
With the least contribution, and some major problems with this statement here:
Also, I was totally expecting to be dead and thus, able to get some quality video gaming time in today. But it seems that is not so, so... dangit, gonna actually have to reat stuff and form opinions.
At this crucial point in the game, he is seemingly unwilling to make contributions. Sorry Excal, but you appear to be the best to go right now, in my eyes at least.
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##VOTE Excal
Same as yesterday, in light of the EvilTom revelations.
The one thing that makes me nervous about this is that Excal said in his post that he agrees that there's scum likely in the Xanth train. That would be a brave thing for scum to say, since they're already down one member and such logic would eventually doom Excal no matter what... but I suppose also something tough to argue against if theoretical scum-Excal were to attempt to make that case.
Player comments:
EvilTom: Confirmed town.
Xanth: We haven't really learned anything new since Day2, and people know my opinion from then.
El Cid: Still gets major credit for being early on the Meeple train and pushing it.
Delta: Agree with the light townie read for his Meeple vote on Day1, can't say much more beyond that.
AndrewRogue: Not sure if I'm as against him as El Cid; yesterday was Saturday after all, and any player (scum or town) would probably have switched their vote if they'd been genuinely active. And EvilTom was already out of the woods as far as being lynched. The one notable exception to this scenario... a scumteam with Meeple/Andy/Excal. In that case, pretending inactivity and letting Ryogo get lynched would be in his interest (as swapping to Ryogo would look a bit odd). In other words, if we lynch Excal and he flips scum, AndrewRogue will look really evil. Otherwise, he's at a similar level to, say, Carth (both on the Meeple train Day1, both somewhat quiet Day2).
Carthrat: See above.
StragoYoshi: Seems to be playing the part of the dutiful townie, but votes / actions aren't giving much of a read (not really his fault due to the player switch). Can't say much, though he's not lurking, which is good.
Conclusion: We're still kind of at the same logic as Day2 - examine the Xanth train from Day1. If Excal flips town... we're really going to need more of a read on Carthrat, Andy, Delta, and Yoshi.
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Uhhh... guys, -1 warning here. I can appreciate you all feel really, really certain that you've got me. But don't end the day after only a few hours on this, alright?
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Granted, I want to hear EVERYONE's input on this. Andy, Xanth and ET havent spoken yet, and I want their input on today's matters.
DO NOT HAMMER EXCAL YET.
Please?
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Excal: I got ninjaed by Delta. Sure, if you want time to post...
##UNVOTE Excal.
As for Delta... Yes, I was writing my post for the past twenty minutes or so. I have no idea how the "users active" tab works but since it says for me
"Total time logged in: 18 days, 4 hours and 50 minutes."
I'm not sure how useful it is? I will say with respect to the "on all day" comment that I checked the Mafia thread before going to church today at ~12:45 or so. I logged on to re-check and write my post when I got back at ~3:00 or so.
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##Unvote: Excal
No harm in this - might as well see what's said and then decide. Can always re-vote if needed.
Granted, I want to hear EVERYONE's input on this. Andy, Xanth and ET havent spoken yet, and I want their input on today's matters.
Rat too. Strangely, I'm particularly interested in hearing what Rat has to say. Probably because I'm leaning town, but still relatively unsure on that, so I'd like to see what could develop there.
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It just shows you who has been online the the last 15 minutes, at the bottom. Total time logged in is... just that. A total of all your time logged in currently. My vote is still on Excal to keep the pressure on him for now. I honestly cannot wait until Xanth and ET come on.
Andrew is already online, and has been for a while now :/
Yoshininja'd. I forgot about Rat. Just shows that he needs to post more.
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Whoa, I go archive-diving for a bit and we hit -1 to hammer somehow. Yeah, no lynch yet, please. There are several people we badly need to hear from still.
Snowfire: In the event of ninjaposts, always at least scan through them to see if the people before you placed votes, even if you have time to read the posts in full (Ctrl + F, search for ##. That should let you cycle through all the votes and unvotes on the page quickly). It's just a good precautionary measure that helps avoid accidental lynches.
Anyway, gotta read new stuff now.
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Blah, that should've read "even if you DON'T have time to read the posts in full."
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Responding to things as I go along.
...huh. That means... unless the roles are really screwy, that there were no scum on Xanth's train. And Alex, the guy threatening to hammer, also wasn't scum.
Well, there's always Meeple. He was scum! Anyway, it sounds like you've concluded that a notable chunk of the surviving playerbase is town, Excal. Care to tell us who you think is scum?
Also, I was totally expecting to be dead and thus, able to get some quality video gaming time in today. But it seems that is not so, so... dangit, gonna actually have to reat stuff and form opinions.
Yeah, sorry about that, man. >.>
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Sure, nobody posts in the evening before, but the day of WHAM. Text everywhere.
Anyhow, in the light of the morning sun, Tom looks clear, so clearly my train of reasoning ends there.
To get something out there ASAP... I'm actually a bit bothered by both Excal and Yoshiken at this juncture. While Yoshi makes a fairly logical point about Excal... it is also worth mentioning that Strago himself didn't have a vote on either candidate as well. And, although Strago offered a brief explanation, it doesn't particularly clear him (or his successor). So while Excal is a viable candidate, Yoshi's own logic for that vote also speaks against him. This seems like really sloppy argumentation to me, and makes me rather uncomfortable.
##Vote: Yoshi
Rat is another individual who stands out for his odd comment about wanting to lynch Ryogo yesterday. I'm hard pressed to find a town based reason for this. Perhaps he could illuminate his logic?
Ninja: Geeze, we're moving fast here. Posting this now so people see that I'm working here. >_>
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El Cid: Good advice, thanks.
Also quick response, something I missed responding to from Yoshi's earlier post:
Snow - I'd like to know your reasons for voting Excal yesterday, since you only mentioned reasons for not voting Tom.
Simple - the whole Xanth train (Excal, Ryogo, Tom) was suspicious. After Tom was cleared, that left Ryogo and Excal, and I agreed with El Cid that spending a vote on someone likely to be modkilled was not the best usage of the lynch. And it's hard to get a read off total absence (since it usually means out-of-game issues), while Excal had at least showed up enough to be suspicious in his lurking.
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Yeah, definatly support Cid on the search for votes thing.
That said... ##Vote: AndrewRogue
What's the difference between Andy and myself? He's been shouting at people and voted Meeple instead of Xanth. Thaaat's... about it, really.
First post is just a 'let's do serious voting now' thing, with his follow up being 'dear lord, my serious vote post got serious votes on me. Irony!'
Third post, and pretty much final one for the day starts with a defense of lurker voting that... completely ignores the actual arguments used against Meeple followed by paraphrasing Bard's indictment of Meeple and a vote. The rest of it is a question for Cid (helpful) and telling everyone else to talk more, which is more of an effective smoke screen. It gives you the look of being active and helpful at the time for folks skimming over, but doesn't actually help in any meaningful way.
The only real problem with Andy is at the end of Day 1, where he has a nice post outlining the cases on the major folks for the day. But doesn't really outline anything new aside from a general dismissal of Meeple's defense. I'm not sure how to read that one, though I'm also not sure it would register anything unless scum were trying to act as a team to deflect obvious criticism.
His next two posts are Day 2, and they both focus pretty exclusively on Tom. It's hard to catch as he does have sections on other people, but the two of substance, one of them outlines a case against Xanth, and the other is focussed on explaining why Tom is scummy to someone else.
So... yeah.
There are my thoughts on Andy.
EDIT to Cidninjary (Nothing for the others)
Well, I think one of them is fairly obvious as of right now. Rat, Yoshi and Snowfire are the other three I consider highly suspicious, with Yoshi being top on the list. And Xanth... he makes good arguments, but the reveal about Meeple being the only scum on him really caught me for a loop, and I really want to review what he said now.
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AndrewRogue: Not sure if I'm as against him as El Cid; yesterday was Saturday after all, and any player (scum or town) would probably have switched their vote if they'd been genuinely active. And EvilTom was already out of the woods as far as being lynched. The one notable exception to this scenario... a scumteam with Meeple/Andy/Excal. In that case, pretending inactivity and letting Ryogo get lynched would be in his interest (as swapping to Ryogo would look a bit odd).
The bolded sentence is the theory I was working from, yes.
EDIT: Blugh, ninjastorm. Have new Andy/Snow/Excal stuff to read now.
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Alright, time to put out some more general thoughts on people now that I feel fairly confident on where folks stand. As well as some of the whys.
Town:
Tom - None of this is on his merits as of present, but more because a limited Mason stepped in and said he's cool, and then we get a flip showing why.
Cid - Part of it's the feel of his arguing. Part of it is the timing on his Meeple vote. He very deliberately chose to push Meeple over the edge, and that says something to me. Especially since I'm not sure Cid could coldly do that to a team power role.
Delta - Also pushed to lynch Meeple. Not just vote him, but lynch him. And I have even less belief he could do that to a powerful teammate with a straight face.
And... that's it for Town aligned in my eyes.
Xanth probably looks best of the rest. If only because I have respect for him, and... I just can't see them getting into a situation like that if he was around and saw what was coming. That said, Tom's good at catching people off guard, and the people making the strongest arguments for him were all squarely on Meeple...
Blarg, scum Xanth just really makes for some screwy scenarios I haven't properly thought about yet, and until I do, he's going to be very fluid in my rankings.
Rat - Yeah, he voted Meep. Hell, he was the one who lynched Meep. Though, not sure how much credit I give there. His was the last Meeple vote that also wasn't given for the express purpose of seeing him lynched. Sure, it would have pushed him ahead if it was counted, but Rat gave no indication that he was aware of that. Additionally, his vote is on Ryogo on Day 2, when it's established that may not do anything besides lynch a modkill (which it indeed would have). So, I'm not that inclined to give him scum kill credit, and he's got at least one very odd move going against him.
Snowfire - Is... odd. He's screwed up a lot, but I'm not sure if he's screwed up in any way that I would call scummy. And since mistakes aren't the sole property of scum, it's possible that he's town. As such... yeah. No real clue where he stands.
Yoshi - I'll just start by saying I need to go back and reread Yoshi here. Very definately reread. That said, Strago... made some great points, in fact, he had one of the better anti-Meeple posts on day 1. Then doesn't vote, replies with something saying he'd probably be back later to vote, and never shows up. Sure, the replacement really does suggest a reasonable excuse for this. But scum can have legit excuses just as easily as town can. And, he had a damn solid Day 1 case that didn't have any real competition I recall. So, why no vote? As for Yoshi, most of what I remember of Yoshi is a lot of coverage on everyone. So, yeah, my case is mostly based on Day 1 Strago here.
Andy - I already talked about.
So, yeah. I'm leaning towards an Andy/Yoshi lynch at present.
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Now, to try and further explicate some of my thoughts!
Yoshi: Strago initially does next to nothing on day one, except supporting cases on Meeple and Tom. Ends up not placing a vote by the end of the day. Yoshi picks up from there and... proceeds to present a strong-ish case on Alex (which turns out to be mistaken). Besides that... Yoshi mostly makes scatter point posts which aren't really good for much. They let you look like you are saying a lot without saying very much at all. It is also worth noting that Yoshi chooses to use some dangerous logic back near the end of yesterday
If townExcal, I'd safely assume scumAlex & (most probably) scumTom. Either way, it seems voting Excal is gonna be beneficial to town, so I'll go with this.
This kind of unsubstantiated "If X, then Y" sort of logic is baaad. Like, really bad. ESPECIALLY in this case. It looks a lot like he was trying to tear down the claims of Alex and Tom in... frankly? What would be a pretty dangerous and suicidal gambit at a point where it would be completely illogical. For that scum combination to have happened, they would have to have been preeetty much the ballsiest/stupid scum I have ever seen, or the game would have needed some serious bastard modding.
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Back but not really around for comment yet. Don't wait up for me, as I'll be a handful of hours yet. I'll expand on the following later, but here's a quick view of my position if anyone wants to work with it now.
In short, I'm frustrated that Ryogo wasn't even scum in the end, as that was supposed to be the baseline gain from that day. I'm really not as sold on Excal as the rest of the player base seems to be at this point, based primarily on the directions of his arguments from yesterday (that on a quick skim seem to have continued into today). With my primary line of suspects (Tom, Ryogo and Excal) exhausted without any gain at all, my next port of call is to re-examine the next line of people down, which would be Yoshi, Andy and Cid, probably in that order. In addition to Excal, that is, but I'm just not feeling that. Why bother going to such lengths to argue yourself into a corner? It's possible I'm giving Rat too much of a free pass (read as: I'll reassess it based on recent actions), but I'm still comfortable with the other cred given.
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Been rereading, not sure what else to add right now apart from noting that Andy makes some reasonable observations in regards to Yoshi, ditto Excal's on Rat. Blah, brain needs to take a rest, will come back in a few hours when hopefully Rat and Tom are active.
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Yeesh, I cut my other post short to let other people comment on what's happened, and return to find I'm suddenly one of, if not the top candidate for next lynch.
Looking back at my previous analysis post, a few things have changed... Obviously, we've had some stuff from 3/4 of the quiet guys - still waiting on Rat, which really isn't helping that case at all...
So, to break those down... Excal's contributed more in these last few posts than I think the majority have in the time since I came in. That does help clear the suspicion around him a little, since the majority of that was based around the lack of posting. Of course, it still doesn't help that he's the only unknown left who voted Xanth.
Snowfire, I'm becoming more suspicious of, if only for the low post content in general.
In other words, if we lynch Excal and he flips scum, AndrewRogue will look really evil.
Looking back at this, this has caught my attention... This is implying that the alternative is we lynch Excal, he flips town and Andy's pretty much clear. There's one other alternative I can think of, and that's the possibility of Meeple/Andy/Snow as scum. If that were the case, this argument would be the perfect defence - attack against Excal, flips as town, and then Andy's seemingly home free.
Andy, I feel I should start by arguing the vote against me:
So while Excal is a viable candidate, Yoshi's own logic for that vote also speaks against him. This seems like really sloppy argumentation to me, and makes me rather uncomfortable.
The main reason for this vote was the same reasons I'm giving for suspicions in this post - low post total & content. The votes simply supported that - I understand that the votes will make me look somewhat suspicious, but there's not really much I can do to help that, seeing as I wasn't here for Day1. All I'll ask is that people don't jump to conclusions based on me not being here before.
As for you, I'm still quite suspicious. You've not really given much insight in your latest post - you've said me & Excal look suspicious, and you said Rat's vote on Ryogo was. I'm interested in knowing why you think that's more of a scum move than a town making sure the potential scum falls. (Sure, he was actually town, but that's hindsight for ya.)
Overall, I've got suspicions regarding Andy/Snow/Excal.
Out of these, my main problem is with Andy, mostly because of the Snow quote from earlier in the post. If we do vote Andy and he flips scum, I think it's fairly certain that one of the other two is.
~AndyNinja - Hrm. I've already commented regarding my case against Alex. It seemed logical at the time, but hindsight's a bitch. With regards to my posts, I personally think I'm saying a fair bit, at least presenting my thoughts on each person - we saw the problem with a single-minded chase before, with Tom chasing Xanth.
~Xanth & CidNinjas - Hrm, nothing to comment on here.
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Y'know... I just noticed something. People keep on noting that Xanth would have been jumped on if he had tried to save himself by hammering Meeple. Or that anyone else would have been jumped on if they had just hammered Xanth out of nowhere (hell, the fact that I was vocally pro-hammering Xanth after a cop-claim to the contrary is one of the points used as to why I am scummy). But, I haven't really seen anyone comment on this.
We are not actually in sudden death because I've had a vote on meeple since page 2, shoving him one ahead of Xanth.
Should this, in fact, be a mistake of some kind which can still be compensated for, I would ##Unvote, ##Vote: Xanth due to copclaim.
So, Rat. Why was your move in that situation to hammer Xanth instead of just unvote? I mean, your action after the unvote wasn't likely to matter anyways, but we were waiting for some last words from Xanth at the time, and you acted to cut them off.
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This is short, but I can address a couple things before I need to take off.
Cid - Excal was the next target up from Ryogo because after Alex's 'don't lynch Tom!' cry, I was considering that scum were likely on the Xanth train and with 3/4 people on that already accounted for, he was the next best bet.
Excal - I moved to hammer Xanth mainly because Meeple had a copclaim out and I hadn't seen anything from the guy that made me want to preserve him. Nor did I really think anything he had to say would make lynching him the less practical move.
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Votecount:
Excal (2): Cid, Yoshi, Delta, Snowfire
Yoshiken (1): Andy
Andy (1): Excal
There are 42 hours left in Day Three.
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Alright, Rat. I can see why you might think there was nothing he could say worth hearing. But, there was absolutely nothing showing up that would be a threat to a Xanth lynch that wouldn't get that person serious flak the next day. I mean, the only person who could get away with lynching Meep had already said they wouldn't. And anyone else would have some very serious explaining to do as to why they lynched the cop claim.
So, again, why did you feel it was so urgent to do it right away?
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At uni, limited mafia time. For posterity, yep Lenny & Carl, mason buddies. Poor Carl.. I figure I'll be seeing him soon though.
I've been suspicious of Rat all game, but there's been nothing to pin on him because he's said so little. Still not happy with Excal. Eh I don't have time to post now, BBL.
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This is short, but I can address a couple things before I need to take off.
Cid - Excal was the next target up from Ryogo because after Alex's 'don't lynch Tom!' cry, I was considering that scum were likely on the Xanth train and with 3/4 people on that already accounted for, he was the next best bet.
This isn't entirely what I was asking about. The fact that you proclaimed Excal a solid lynch with little previous commentary on the matter was only part of what bothered me. Why stick with Ryogo at that point? You posted the following just a few hours before deadline:
I'm pretty comfortable sticking with Ryogo right now, modkill or not- though Excal would probably be my next bet. It worries me that his only significant post has come on the heels of a threat of getting lynched.
"Modkill or not?" What makes someone who's about to be modkilled a better lynch? I don't get this at all, and it looks mighty odd given that the person who survived yesterday because of Ryogo's lynch just happens to be my main suspect.
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In short, I'm frustrated that Ryogo wasn't even scum in the end, as that was supposed to be the baseline gain from that day. I'm really not as sold on Excal as the rest of the player base seems to be at this point, based primarily on the directions of his arguments from yesterday (that on a quick skim seem to have continued into today)
And it doesn't bother you at all that Excal didn't make such arguments until several players called him out on lurking? Very late in day two? And that the target he eventually settled on was both the safest player to attack (Tom was -2 to hammer when Excal made his omnibus post, which means that even if Tom had been lynched and flipped town, Excal would hardly have been alone in bearing suspicion the next day)? And that Excal's only previous discussion of Tom (here: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?action=post;quote=52670;topic=3003.100;num_replies=190;sesc=f49986f87ac5dd330480b00523bceff4) mentions Tom and Ryogo only in passing? Really, do read the post I linked to here. It looks to me like someone weighing two players who had potential for being mislynches in preparation for joining either train later if it took off. This kind of vacillation is very scummy: comment vaguely on matters, board the train later if it picks up steam.
To me, all of this makes perfect sense for embattled scum realizing he needed to go on the offensive to shake off bad karma accrued from lurking. You can say that pursuing Tom was Excal "writing himself into a corner," but even this was a better option for a scum Excal than continued inaction. Also: after Alex claimed he had role-related proof that Tom was town, Excal went silent for the rest of the day (aside from unvoting Tom in a one-liner post, of course). Didn't defend himself when he picked up votes from Snowfire and Yoshi, just hunkered down and waited out the day. Sure, he's talking more now--but the first thing he said today was that he expected to die yesterday. Which is doubly odd since he only had two votes on him at the time he unvoted Tom and vanished. Was he actually watching the rest of the day and hoping he could ride things out quietly? I think it's a strong possibility, and I don't understand how any of this can be perceived as the actions of a townie.
Again, I'm going to request that you elaborate on what makes you so supportive of Excal. (Yes, I know you said your most recent post was just going to be a cursory response. I just wish to reiterate the request so that it doesn't get lost in the shuffle.)
~
Alright. Ryogo flipping town and various people being more active today has my thoughts rather jumbled. We have several cases on the record which have been demonstrated to be bad (early day 1 Delta, Tom and Alex in general, Ryogo). Going to go back and take a close look at who said what about which of these to try to get my mind in order again.
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Excal: I suppose I was edgy and felt a need to get what I had out there immediately, and stalling for last words during sudden death does not seem like such a winning plan to me in general precisely because someone can come out of nowhere and fuck everything up.
Cid: It's not that he was getting modkilled that makes him a better lynch, it's that he seemed the most viable lynch at the time. There was little previous commentary on Excal because I was focusing on Ryogo earlier and it was only after I read your and Alex's posts during that day that I was looking at things in such a light. Short of echoing that...
<->
Let's look back at late day one, a straight up Meeple vs. Xanth tie towards the end. Where would scum be in that position, assuming none of those present intended to move from their spot? If Xanth is town, then 'on Xanth' is where it's at. If he's scum... then he's probably vanilla scum and was planning on falling on his sword so the rolecop lives; furthermore, the rest of the scumteam was probably in on that, so you could still expect to see other scum on Xanth, too. I think an outright bus on Meeple is pretty unlikely because he had an actual role, too. The only place I'd expect to see scum on that train would be near the start- certainly not Cid or Delta, who were in position to push other lynches; not Bard because Bard's dead, and that leaves Andy. Maybe. In an unlikely-seeming fashion.
The other possibility is that scum simply weren't there. Which would point at Yoshiken/Strago more than anyone. Snowfire... wasn't on either train, but given that no matter what the circumstances he had easy choice of lynch, I can't see him being scum unless it is, in fact, a Meeple/Snow/Xanth team and he tried to push a last-minute third lynch. Again, possible, but seeming highly unlikely.
Late day 2, Excal vanished after his case on Tom got shot down by alex, and only returned today, claiming he figured he'd die, although there was not, in fact, a swarm of votes all over him at the time of his last post. I kinda want to know why he expected to die, since if he was around towards the end of day 2 and seeing a close pull between himself and Ryogo, why didn't he toss his hat in the ring? He had no vote out, it seems... very odd.
Early today worries me as well because of the quick surge onto Excal, Delta's subsequent 'hey guys quicklynch much?' and the rush of votes away. The response seems outright panicked, and I'm already somewhat suspicious of Yoshiken for day 1 lurkering. Tentatively considering an Excal/Yosh remaining pair.
As for right now, the hardcore d1/2 lurkering and the oddness of the day 1 lynch is pointing me towards Excal for today's lynch.
##Vote: Excal
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I'm too tired to think coherently (I'm a bit sick), but other than Excal, Rat and Andy top my scum list (no order). Xanth would follow. The rest are pretty safe IMO.
Rat has only said anything when we've pushed him to. Andy hasn't done much more. Excal is only slightly better, but just as bad in terms of content. So yeah, my view on the remaining scum is almost LAL. Which often works!
I pretty much expect to die tonight. Everything looks like a mess to me though, so I'm not much use right now. Tentatively calling for Excal roleclaim time? I'm wondering why Rat is in a rush to put Excal back to -1. And by 'wondering' I mean 'Rat you scummy bastard!'
Blah headache.
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Alright, since my dissapearance and lack of caring after my case on Tom fell apart seems to be on people's minds, I'll give you the low down. For a couple of reasons, sleep was not something I got on Friday night, this was followed by a six hour shift the following morning. So, when I got back home, I was at around 30 hours sans sleep. So, I wanted nothing better than to just curl up and get some rest. However, I was in the game, so I bothered to take a look, and see what I thought so I could give something to the game for after my death and flip.
So, I stayed up, read the thread, thought about who would be the best candidates, and posted as such. And immeadiatly had it blown out of the water. Figuring Alex had something up his sleeve, I pulled back, but where was I going to go from there. The only people with any heat on them were Tom, who I trusted Alex enough not to go after, Ryogo, who was about to get mod-killed, and myself. I had no clue who else to start on, and more importantly, no real expectation that people would listen, so, I just gave up and got some sleep.
As for the expectation that I wouldn't survive. A) I had no idea how many votes were on Ryogo. And, more importantly, only needed one or two to switch in order for me to fry.
Anyways, on to current thoughts. I refuse to believe that there was more than one scum on Meeple. This means that Rat and Andy are linked. Mostly just in a they can't be scumbuddies kind of way though. If one's scum, the other isn't, but no guarantees if one turns up town.
Also, it does make sense for scum to want Ryogo lynched over me regardless of alignment. After all, what good is a town modkill to them? They either save a scumbuddie, or a mislynch for the next day. Don't think they planned for a quicklynch for all that it almost happened.
Also, note to Tom. I should only be at -2. Two people backed off of me, only Rat has put a fresh vote on me since then. Also, not going to claim just yet. It shouldn't be a surprising role when I do claim, since it's a bit more dependable than OK as town, or Andy as scum. But... not quite yet.
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Cid: your link fails for me, apparently due to session ID. I've tried taking off the 'sesc' bit at the end, but that doesn't seem to resolve it. Anyway, it's not so much the emphasis on Tom and Ryogo as it is that he set up a principal whereby if Tom and Ryogo turn up blank, then he's almost completely screwed. That he would weigh quite so much on the basis of there being scum [other than Meeple] on my train without an escape condition for himself reads far more like a townsman who just is as sure as you can be that there was another mafioso on the train (I sure as hell had convinced myself of Ryogo's guilt by the point the flip came) than as scum trying to redirect for a short period of time. Yeah, sure, it's quite possibly better than him just lurking or what have you, but it's still a lot worse than what he could have been doing in the knowledge that that avenue of suspects was going to dry up.
Back later to do what I said I'd do earlier.
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Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshi, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (1): Andy
Andy (1): Excal
There are 30 hours left in Day Three.
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Right, bought myself a bit more time. Still likely to run over to my next free period, four hours from now.
Anyway, my extended thought process in short was categorised by those under heavy scrutiny from my train, those with rep gained in and around the trains, and then the rest. Oversimplifying a little, that looked like {Tom, Ryogo, Excal} {Cid, Yoshi, Andy, Alex} {Snow, Rat, Delta}.
With everything that's happened, this now looks like {Excal, Yoshi, Andy} {Cid, Rat} {Tom, Snow, Delta}.
The main trouble with this set up is that I'm struggling to tie everything together, at least assuming that there are two scum left (right/wrong to do so?). I have very little issue with everyone outside of the first bracket, but given my unease with backing Excal that primarily leaves Andy and Yoshi, who have just started locking horns.
Out of time already. Back in a few.
##Vote: Yoshiken
For now, for leading to Strago's day one (which I read positively earlier, I know), and for the approach since. Vague, I know. I still need to compare with Andy, but he at least gets a small leg up for the early assault on Meeple.
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Hmm, seems I've somehow fallen under the hammer of suspicion. While I can understand that by first-day logic - I know I'd be suspicious considering Strago's silence followed by replacement - I'd still like people to consider at least leaving that vote temporarily, so that we can clarify if there is a better case as opposed to "Well, he's been around less." We've seen how that's screwed us over before, looking at the Ryogo-lynch.
Also, thought came to me earlier - why was Bard the victim on the first day? He wasn't the only player to be posting a lot. Decided to look back at his posts... (For all posts, I've cut out parts referring solely to Meep's actions.)
I cited the last part because I am befuddled why you would be clearing up linguistic and/or argumentative differences between Excal and Xanth. As I feel that you should only protect someone of whose alignment you are certain, and given that townies do not know anyone's alignment but their own (I will not consider masons at this point), I find it odd for you to defend someone else and explain away their behaviour.
Xanth is perfectly capable of doing so himself.
I want to mention as well that SnowFire befuddles me. The way I see it, the post firsts chastises Andrew for chasing lurkers who haven't posted, only to... chase an alleged lurker yourself. It also feels like a little panic-mongering by ascribing the various effects Delta's present behaviour could have while knowing all too well we have no way of telling which one is the relevant one.
Also, voting people for posting only once and then not again strikes me as incredibly silly since... guess what? You've effectively made two posts in this day as well, meaning you fit your own criteria for classic scum lurking behaviour!
Since we are nearing the deadline, I've taken the liberty of examining the other cases which seem most prevalent to get a lynch, namely Xanth and Snowfire.
Snowfire:
I can accept a lynch on Snowfire based on how useless he's been so far. However, inactivity grades lower to me on the MUST LYNCH radar than someone who's confusing and befuddling. Snowfire, I really, really, really cannot say with good conscience that I think you have been any bit productive to Day 1. Please either change this with all rapid haste or I'll shift my undivided lynching attention to you.
Xanth:
Please stop referring to previous games and whatnot. It is not relevant to this game, and arguments like "OH BUT LAST GAME" just don't work for me. If you want to get lynched today, by all means continue with it. Also stop using sarcasm. "I like how people jump on blah blah lazy bastard blah blah key evidence". Well shit, it's Day 1 and you're constantly excusing yourself, what are you thinking? Ridiculing people with sarcasm because they find an act of yours suspicious doesn't sit well with me. For all that, I find it pretty ridonculous as well that we need so many updates on your sparse schedule; others post less than you do and they don't keep excusing themselves!
At this point,
Meeple > Xanth > Snowfire on my "suspect of scum" list. Other candidates aren't listed as it isn't pertinent right now, but I do feel Delta's being his usual confusing self. The others haven't left a strong enough impact on me for me to pursue something actively. I'm not interested in throwing around minor suspicions so strongly on Day 1, I'll save that for after the flip and Day 2.
I'm around, thrown off my momentum by this announcement. Want to hear Xanth if possible.
I do not understand why SnowFire is desperate to post for the end of today. I'll withhold further opinions on it until the post or something, I don't know.
OK. I'll state now that I'm not 100% certain if this means much, but, as Cid stated earlier, there's a good chance the mafia in this game aren't entirely sure of what they're doing, based around the fact that there was a Day1 lynch and then the Limited Mason was killed. Which led me to wonder why Bard was killed.
Looking over those posts, I'm very tempted to comment on how suspicious Snow seems, for obvious reasons. Main problems here are Bard's point in that final post, as well as the fact that only two people seemed to look at Snow in great detail - Bard & Alex.
Only others I'm inclined to wonder about are Delta & Xanth, as those are mentioned in the post where he said "I'll save that for after the flip and Day 2." Can't help but feel that this post was somewhat influential in his selection as target.
My suspicions on Andy & Excal still remain as they were - current idea is Snow > Andy > Excal, but those three are pretty damn close in my books at the moment.
tl;dr - Snow seems suspicious because both Bard & Alex were saying he was scummy before getting killed.
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Right, I've skived off early to gain extra time here. Full post to immediately follow this, but quickly:
Yoshi: yeah, sorry for dropping a vote without expanding on it properly, but we're nearly halfway through day three and I hadn't got anything solid down, so I didn't want that on the table any later than that.
It's usually somewhat frowned upon to think about the rationale behind lynch targets, as you can go round in circles trying to out-think the scum and get nowhere. Bardiche's lynch didn't even make me blink, as he'd played a really good town game in the first day (and I'm pretty sure at least a few of us even comment on it) (although wow, I guess I skimmed over the part where he was quite so harsh on me when it happened), so it's motive enough for anyone as scum. Likewise with Alex, who had to reveal himself as some sort of useful town power.
Day one sudden death stuff is still enough for me to trust Snow quite a lot.
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Right, the reason I'm a little confused as to where my vote is, it's because I've arrived at {Excal, Andy, Yoshi} by a process of elimination rather than by approaching them head on. Tom, Snow and Delta are all but free in my eyes as things stand, and Cid likewise still has a lot of major credit for the timing and so forth on the Meeple case.
Other than my initial set, that leaves Rat. I have to admit on one hand that I'm surprised at just how little he's posted, but on the other hand practically everything I do find from him reads positively. His main push on day one was for Meeple, and otherwise defended me over Meeple and Snow. The 'vote Ryogo - modkill or not' comment from day two is easily the most worrying comment, especially given that his second choice (Excal) was so available. As much as Ryogo deserved death at that point, it's still a horrible waste of a lynch (my own vote only ending on Ryogo because Tom needed saving and I really didn't/don't buy the whole Excal thing, and even then my vote should probably have gone elsewhere anyway).
That said, I find myself agreeing with him more than anyone else in today's discussion. Cancelling out the same set for approximately the same line of logic (I'm a little concerned that he doesn't reach a conclusion on me - it's a little odd that I'm left out other than during 'what ifs' for both sides), again it feels too deep for scum padding for later.
I'm actually altogether less sure of myself on him than I was before I started that piece (the Meeple vote is too early to gain the same cred as the others), but I'm far more willing to return to him later than now when it feels like he's on the 'right' tracks as things stand.
As I'm waving a 'I want to believe' flag at Excal, that leaves Andy and Yoshiken, who seem like an unlikely pair given the former's assault on the latter, but I'm most confident that there's scum to find between them (so yes, I'm expecting some part of my set up to be wrong, but there seems to be no point in second-guessing that until more of the top falls out, especially when it could yet be right).
The day one case is fairly simple - Andy edges out Yoshi (then Strago) [in a positive way] by the count of an early Meeple vote over no presence or vote at all, which I had previously granted clemency over. Andrew's early strike for voting for the non-present Delta is wiped by the pressure and continued pressure on Meeple, only then marred a little bit by disappearing during sudden death (having been present just before). This compares to Strago's... one post of content whatsoever, which is admittedly anti-Meeple, but in retrospect could be a place holder for later bussing (but does leave little recourse otherwise).
Day two and onwards is messier, as Andy posts less and doesn't address many players. Tom was yesterday's catch of the day, and Yoshi today, which is personally awkward given my own votes. And in all fairness, day three is less of a one track than the day before. Yoshi on the other hand is a lot more present, which flickers from generic to specific, but whilst the level of content ought to be a plus, I keep on coming to flawed logic. Practically everything he had down on Alex was wrong, and arguments like 'townExcal => scumAlex and scumTom' (after Alex saved Tom) are dangerous as hell.
And now going into day three there's some sort of triple threat match going on with Excal, which is a bugger for working out how to pull the townie(s) out of it. Yoshi looks worst out of it for what looks like a bandwagon pull (much needed bus cred if Excal is scum, and a quick-tracked day otherwise), but did at least allude to jumping on to Excal's case the previous day. Then again, that was under bad rationale, and the 'hey guys I've just seen Excal is the only unknown Xanth vote' is hardly new to convince.
I'm less than content with Andy slowly falling off the face of the earth (likewise Rat, actually), but he has the early credit to push him up a bit, whereas Strago/Yoshi leave very little positive to work with.
##This is where my vote for Yoshiken would go if it wasn't already down.
Off to make dinner for six. Will be busy this evening, but will probably be able to chip in a little bit.
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OK, just to clarify one thing that a few people seem to have picked up on...
Where it was said "If townExcal, then I'd assume scumAlex and (most probably) scumTom", that was at that time and also not something I stated for certain (hence the "I'd assume"). Obviously, since then, we've had other information to tell us that Tom & Alex are/were clearly town, and I'm still somewhat suspicious of Excal for the reasons I was assuming this at the time.
I'll admit that it was probably a mistake to announce it outright like that, as though it was a certainty in my mind, but I can guarantee it most definitely wasn't.
Oh, and seeing as I didn't in my previous post...
##Vote: Snowfire.
It's usually somewhat frowned upon to think about the rationale behind lynch targets, as you can go round in circles trying to out-think the scum and get nowhere.
But surely that logic goes in circles too. I mean, maybe scum think you won't look at the lynch targets and... you can see where this is going.
Oh, as it happens, Xanth... Why do you feel that Snow's Day1SD actions clear him? Or, more, why is it that you trust that Snow saying "Can we vote someone else?" means he's automatically town? Seems like that could have been WIFOM from him...
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Yoshi: re: Snow: I know that the lynch on day one was between town and scum, and the scum had the credibility to stay in over the townsman. If Snow was scum, he really, really should have been on me over Meeple. Cop claim that I'd submitted to was absolutely golden.
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Also, it does make sense for scum to want Ryogo lynched over me regardless of alignment. After all, what good is a town modkill to them? They either save a scumbuddie, or a mislynch for the next day. Don't think they planned for a quicklynch for all that it almost happened.
Town dying is always in scum's best interest. I don't think this is disputable. I don't see how Ryogo's lynch would be preferable to scum than yours if both of you were town--if we'd lynched you yesterday instead of Ryogo, and you'd turned up town, then scum would've got two kills yesterday instead of one. I'm not finding the logic in this statement, Excal.
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Because getting one extra out of turn town kill only helps them as insurance against bulletproof/doc. Otherwise, it actually hurts them. They want an odd number of people going into lylo because it's more chance for town to screw up. They also want to spend as many days as possible on mislynches.
Since Ryogo dropping doesn't bring us one day closer to lylo, and under this assumption I'm an extra day of mislynching, it is a good deal for them, Cid.
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Cid: your link fails for me, apparently due to session ID. I've tried taking off the 'sesc' bit at the end, but that doesn't seem to resolve it. Anyway, it's not so much the emphasis on Tom and Ryogo as it is that he set up a principal whereby if Tom and Ryogo turn up blank, then he's almost completely screwed. That he would weigh quite so much on the basis of there being scum [other than Meeple] on my train without an escape condition for himself reads far more like a townsman who just is as sure as you can be that there was another mafioso on the train (I sure as hell had convinced myself of Ryogo's guilt by the point the flip came) than as scum trying to redirect for a short period of time. Yeah, sure, it's quite possibly better than him just lurking or what have you, but it's still a lot worse than what he could have been doing in the knowledge that that avenue of suspects was going to dry up.
Well, you did say I wouldn't agree with your reasons, but thanks for providing them at least. All I can really do is reiterate that scum are not infallible. It bothers me how often you insist that someone not necessarily doing what would've been best for scum in a given situation automatically means that they're town. Town or scum, we don't always make the best choices when we have to think fast. Hindsight makes it's easy to look back and say "It would've been better for player X to do this if they were alignment Y," but player X may not have had the luxury of time for analysis when he made these decisions. We've been over all this before, though.
It does seem like you're making a concerted effort to present Excal's conduct in the best possible light while overlooking his scummier behavior. It's weirding me out, really. I don't understand the kind of blind faith I've been seeing from some people in this game.
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Excal: I'm not really buying it. A town kill is a town kill. Why would scum want an extra day of mislynching when you could've died yesterday? The longer a game goes on, the more opportunity we have to find scum. It's in their interest to eliminate as many townies as they can as quickly as possible. Saying that they'd want to keep someone around specifically to be a mislynch when they could've killed this person earlier, just...does not compute.
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It's usually somewhat frowned upon to think about the rationale behind lynch targets, as you can go round in circles trying to out-think the scum and get nowhere. Bardiche's lynch didn't even make me blink, as he'd played a really good town game in the first day (and I'm pretty sure at least a few of us even comment on it) (although wow, I guess I skimmed over the part where he was quite so harsh on me when it happened), so it's motive enough for anyone as scum. Likewise with Alex, who had to reveal himself as some sort of useful town power.
I guess you meant nightkill there, instead of lynch? Interesting Freudian slip. Anyway, seconding this for Yoshi. Bard was a pretty obvious target for scum night 1 just because he came out hard against Meeple early on and put in a lot of effort to get Meeple's lynch through. Meeple flipping scum would have netted Bard massive townie cred had Bard lived through the night. If scum don't have any idea who the town power roles are, killing someone the other townies think they can trust is usually their best option.
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Because if you bothered to read what I said, you'd have noticed that one or two townies down, they're still hitting lylo on the same day. Just with one less red herring for town to follow on the way there, and less people to confuse town with when they do hit lylo.
Ending the game faster, I agree with you on. But blowing all of the good mislynch candidates in one shot when they can drag that out? That's bad scum play, Cid.
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tl;dr - Snow seems suspicious because both Bard & Alex were saying he was scummy before getting killed.
You know, this quote really stands out to me. The fact that a player has died and flipped town means that their arguments can safely be taken on good faith (I.E., they were genuinely making an attempt to scumhunt, weren't trying to deliberately mislead people, etc.) but that does not mean that everything that they said was right. Any time you go back and reread a dead townie's posts, keep in mind that they were working in the dark on their own just like any other townie (well, okay, Alex could talk to Tom, but had no special insight gained from investigative roles). Being dead does not mean they had access to privilieged information. I can't decide whether you just didn't think through, or simply found it convenient to invoke dead townies to help your case. I also find it curious that you cite Alex's day 1 suspicions of Snowfire as a reason to lynch him while not acknowledging that on day 2 Alex thought Snowfire effectively cleared based on the sudden death events.
~
Excal: I suppose I can see your point, but it's only relevant if you are actually town. As I believe I've made apparent, the evidence weighs against that possibility.
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Oh, I know it doesn't necessarily mean they're right! That's why I neglected to mention (or even consider) Ryogo in this - I was looking solely at those who'd been nightkilled, not lynched.
Hrm. I'm sure I had something from Alex Day2, but... apparently not. Ignore that part then, I guess.
Although, my suspicions still stand regarding Snow not being clear from Day1, for this reasoning:
If Meeple+Snowfire were scum, Snow would have no reason to refrain from hammering Xanth in sudden death, and would have had every reason earlier to get a vote down somewhere and try to roll with a train that wasn't Meeple. OR be on or "mistakenly" hammer Meeple for town cred. What he did do strikes me as the least likely course of action if he were Meeple's scum buddy. Unless we're dealing with the least coordinated scum team ever...
Now this is interesting. Let's see... Looking over Snow's posts from Pages 2 & 3, there is not even a single mention of the Meeple/Xanth situation. So, if he were scum and then suddenly hammers Xanth, wouldn't that just raise suspicion? But then, if he hammers Meeple, he risks taking out an ally when there's a chance of townXanth going. If scumXanth, we aren't certain if Xanth has a role, which could be more helpful for scum. So, overall, seems like suspicion on Snow is still possible by this logic...
Just another insight into my way of thinking (and criticise it as you will, this is just how my mind works...), I'm still thinking the most probable town candidates are the people who've been most active throughout their time here, simply because they're staying in the spotlight & giving people more of a chance to read into their thinking. Now, I know me & Tom are town, and the other "most active" is, without a doubt, Cid.
From there, slightly less consistent in activity, we have Excal, Snow, Delta & Xanth, and then, the least active are seemingly Andy & Rat.
Add into that my previous arguments, and... well, back where I started, with Rat added in (who, I'll admit, I completely forgot about >.>) - Snow > Andy > Excal/Rat.
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I would like to toss out a warning that more activity does not always mean townier. I know Alex has definatly had a few games where he's been the post leader and he turned out to be scum. Cid is another one of those people who can pull that trick off, and the main thing keeping me from wondering too much about that is that he did choose to hammer Meeple. And I'm trying not to WIFOM too much about that.
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Yoshi's logic is... getting stretched here and delving straight into severe WIFOM. Generally speaking? Scum nightkill logic is weak, since it inevitably leads you in circles.
Yes, Bard and Alex could have died because they were getting close to Snow. But why would Snow do that since it would attract obvious attention? Because no one would suspect him because he's attracting such obvious attention! But wouldn't people logically suspect that, since it is so patently obvious? So, the logical deduction would be that he wouldn't kill them because its so obvious that he'd do it because it would be too obvious if he did! And this is setting aside the potential of someone else obviously framing by killing off individuals. Generally speaking, there are a lot of reasons that nightkills happen (confirmed townies, potential power roles, kills that have zero tracability, framing kills, etc). There are a ton of different logics that go into it and, given the relative isolation of NKs, it is very difficult, at best, to make any sort of connection.
As it stands, Yoshi is not really doing anything to make me feel more comfortable here, and is definitely surging ahead of other candidates to me at the moment.
Ninja'd: Idly, Yoshi. How are you measuring activity, here?
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Ninja'd: Idly, Yoshi. How are you measuring activity, here?
Partially by consistent & frequent posting - hence Cid being the most clear (not entirely clear, ofc, 'cause of exactly what Excal said), as he's been consistently posting over all 3 days.
However, most of it's the depth within the posts. Snow, Delta, Xanth and Excal haven't been too consistent in their times, but when they do post, they post a lot with insight into every (or at least most) player(s).
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Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshiken, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (2): Andy, Xanth
Andy (1): Excal
Snowfire (1): Yoshiken
There are 17 hours left in Day Three.
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Interesting developments today I see. Responses first:
Excal: Snowfire - Is... odd. He's screwed up a lot, but I'm not sure if he's screwed up in any way that I would call scummy.
Just want to get on the record that I don't believe I've "screwed up" nearly as much as seemingly everyone else thinks. Scheduling difficulties Day 1 and some naivety about the rules, yes, but I think that I've been pretty forthright on what was going on there.
Yoshiken: Re your point on Andy... no, that would be a bad reading of what I said. ScumExcal ->? ScumAndy to some extent, yes, but Andy is not off the hook by any means if townExcal... as should be clear from his position on my chart, next to Carthrat and you as "top 3 potentially scummiest after Excal." And the four of you are on a different tier from Delta, who's on a different tier from everyone else. Speaking of Andy...
AndrewRogue: First, I obviously agree with your points about Yoshi re: my suspicousness. Though, checking... you were harshly anti-Xanth on Day1 even if you didn't vote for him, and still kept up the flamethrower in your post on Day2 (though not really pursuing it either time). While it's possible I missed it, you haven't said peep on him on Day3. What are your current thoughts on Xanth?
Yoshiken, again: Seems like others have already addressed the scum nightkills issue. Just want to note again that Sir Alex was supportive of me on Day2 anyway.
--
General thoughts.
Let's assume that there are 3 scum in the game (if there are 4, then the scum totally failed it up on Day1). I'm also going to assume that Xanth is not scum, as if he is then headaches ensue. Scenario A: Both the other scum did in fact try to cover for Meeple. This is a bright line leading to both Excal / YoshiStrago, as Excal voted for Xanth and Strago was absent. Scenario B: One of the scum was on the Meeple train early when he didn't think it would take off. Then, either due to genuine inactivity or the fact that it would look too suspicious to flip, their vote stayed on Meeple the length of Day1. The second scum was supposed to cover for Meeple.
So... if we're hunting that second scum, then I'm pretty happy with either of our major lynch targets in Yoshi or Excal. StragoYoshi pseudo-qualifies for suspicion on Day1 - Strago didn't return in time to get a vote down on Day1, so it's possible that out-of-game concerns kept him from saving Meeple. Excal has made some sensible points today, but I'm really not certain that it's enough to clear him, and it dovetails all too nicely into the "frantically throw attention elsewhere" theory. And Excal being the second scum trivially satisfies the "trying to save Meeple" condition.
Andy, Carthrat, and to a lesser degree Delta and El Cid qualify as potential "first scum" in Scenario B, but I think that can wait for later. One of Excal/Yoshi being the second scum makes a ton of sense and seem the much stronger candidates to pursue to me. Plus, if Scenario A is true, then we're sure to hit scum.
It's certainly possible that both scum were on the Meeple train or that Xanth was scum or the like, but I don't think it's likely.
I'd vote but it'd go to Excal at the moment and that'd put him back at -1, so will check back in the morning.
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On second thought, maybe I take back the part about not making mistakes. Re-checking the archives, I see that Andy has been more... erratic about Xanth. I remembered that he attacked Meeple, myself, and Xanth in one post, and that he was pretty vicious against all of us, but looking at the post again ( http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52562#msg52562 ) I see that the flames were more against me and Meeple. Oops. His post on Day2 was fairly anti-Xanth, though (and in to me an unjustified way - http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52676#msg52676 ), so the question stands anyway. Do you still suspect Xanth as per your Day2 post?
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Scum would be happy enough to let an extra townie die.
What I don't get with Excal is why he basically threw up his hands without even dropping a vote and considering saving himself. It.. isn't really a town/scum thing, I'll grant. It's more a 'wtf' moment no matter what side he's on.
I'm not sure at all about the case on Andy. His attack on Meeple felt too vicious, and he kept it going. It's very hard to fault him for his vote on day 2, as well.
I'm also going to assume that Xanth is not scum, as if he is then headaches ensue.
Well. I think it's very unlikely that Xanth is scum because a pair of scumtrains is, naturally, very unlikely. But to disregard him just because it doesn't fit neatly into your theory? Because that's really how that reads.
wrt to Yoshiken, I've noted over the game that he has a very simplistic attitude; forex, voting Alex 'because you defended Meeple day 1' in day 2. Additionally, when voting Excal today, he... copy-pasted a votecount, tagged Excal, but never really explained why, instead expecting the rationale to be self-evident via votes. The occasional list'o'names he dispenses with is never a good sign to me, since I associate that style of posting with padding. It's amusing how he was willing to listen to what others had to say about Excal despite having not said much himself at the start of this day rather than quicklynch, too.
There's also the matter that later today, he indicated that since Excal had posted somewhat, most of his suspicion around him had gone. But he did refer to an apparently self-evident case via the early votecount, which was never referenced again. It is clear lurking was not the only factor, here. The more I read this, the more it looks like he never presented a case on the guy today.
I'd like him to confirm/deny that and present why Excal ranks as one of the scummiest guys around for him.
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Let's assume that there are 3 scum in the game (if there are 4, then the scum totally failed it up on Day1). I'm also going to assume that Xanth is not scum, as if he is then headaches ensue. Scenario A: Both the other scum did in fact try to cover for Meeple. This is a bright line leading to both Excal / YoshiStrago, as Excal voted for Xanth and Strago was absent. Scenario B: One of the scum was on the Meeple train early when he didn't think it would take off. Then, either due to genuine inactivity or the fact that it would look too suspicious to flip, their vote stayed on Meeple the length of Day1. The second scum was supposed to cover for Meeple.
Scenario B is something I've been considering, especially with regard to Andy. I've been reviewing the topic, and his contributions are sparse. Rarely engages in a real dialogue with others, often makes points that have been originated by others. A few odd details stand out:
-Recall that Andy initially made the same bad call that Meeple did: lazily voting for a player who wasn't actually in the game. If Andy is scum then it makes sense to want to distance himself from this position once Meeple attracts criticism for it. Hence, the vote for Meeple. Andy's was only the second vote on him, so he could do this to shore up his own reputation without necessarily worrying about condemning a comrade--it was early in the game, other people were sitting at the same amount of votes at that time, etc.
-Meeple himself made an effort to respond to his accusers in turn...but he never acknowledged Andy. It's easy for scum to forget to respond in-topic to people that they can talk to outside of it.
-Andy was gone for a long time between dropping his vote on Meeple and returning just in time to post before sudden death. See "Scenario B" up above? This is where that comes into play. By the time Andy returns to the game, at the end of the game-day, Meeple has accrued massive bad karma and is tied for the day's lynch (or not, because of Rat's vote, but we didn't know that at the time). Vacillating at that point in time would've been extremely risky. It's safer for Andy to leave his vote where it is and accept townie cred for helping with the lynch if Meeple does go down.
-His day two case against Tom...well, rereading it (page five, about a third of the way down), Andy criticizes the way Tom's playing the game but stops short of actually calling him scum. He modifies his tone when called on this shortly thereafter, but this still seems weird to me. Also note that these are Andy's only posts on day two.
-Excal's now named Andy as his main suspect. Yet Andy himself hasn't commented on this, not even acknowledged it. And Andy has posted a couple times since Excal's vote. I find this curious. Something to revisit tomorrow if we lynch Excal and he flips scum (something I fully expect to happen).
~
Otherwise:
-Find myself agreeing with recent speculation (mostly Snowfire/Rat's) about Yoshi. Possible suspect if I'm wrong about Andy and/or Excal.
-Toooooom. Where are you, man. Would like to hear more from you before the day is done.
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Sorry, I've been lurking. Ie. reading the thread intently, but being unable to find anything useful to say.
Rat's case against Snow is interesting. I haven't really been looking at Snow or Yoshi as much as I should have. I'm not really convined though.
I've been suspicious of Excal since Alex mentioned it in PM, and he shot to -1 pretty damn quick.. which makes me think either overzealous town or scumbus, which would be Yoshi or Snow. If I were to pick someone scummy from that, it would be Snow... hmm...
My ideas for scumteams probably rate as meeple/andrew/rat or meeple/snow/excal. But I can't really come up with any substantial ideas why. Just idle musings.
Cid - yeah those were my problems with Andy too. Obviously I couldn't do anything about it without getting sunk for OMGUS at the time though.
I'm actually really tempted to vote Andrew now. Ironic I'd be siding with Excal.
Excal... I was all for lynching him, especially after yesterday. But it feels like that avenue is already spent (aside from flip); Andrew has been scummier lately. Who's excited about an Andrew lynch?
##Vote Andy I'll just leave this here. Back after dinner to flail around some more.
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Cid - yeah those were my problems with Andy too. Obviously I couldn't do anything about it without getting sunk for OMGUS at the time though.
I'm actually really tempted to vote Andrew now. Ironic I'd be siding with Excal.
Excal... I was all for lynching him, especially after yesterday. But it feels like that avenue is already spent (aside from flip); Andrew has been scummier lately. Who's excited about an Andrew lynch?
Honestly, I'd prefer to finish Excal today. His attack on Andy feels like a last-ditch stab at misdirection. Hence why I'd rather go with Excal today and worry about Andy tomorrow. So yeah, my vote stays where it is. Crashing out for the night but should be back before deadline.
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Alright... There hasn't been a whole lot today that's done much except to cement my opinion that scums among Andy/Yoshi/Rat. And I'm now heavily leaning towards the first two.
Cid has... oddly enough, dropped a lot in my estimation. Though, I don't know how much of that is due to his two day long pursuit of me. Either case, he's either scum with a lot of dressing on one mislynch, or he's town that's about to be horribly wrong. Either way, if it's me that goes down today, I am looking forward to his reaction tomorrow. It should be a hoot.
Xanth, on the other hand, I now feel fairly certain is town. His arguments in his own favour check. Speaking out when he did just doesn't make any sense unless they were expecting to call attention to Rat's bad vote after Xanth was hammered, but before he was flipped. And even then, it'd really raise the question of why not mention that before, unless they tied him in with scum buddy #3. So, yeah. I can't see any way the end of Day 1 implicates Xanth.
Finally, just as a heads up. If I'm awake before end of day tomorrow, my vote will be going to whichever of Andy/Yoshi that's most likely to keep me alive. I may have given up at the end of Day 2, but this time I'm going to do what I can to stay alive.
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Tom, since you seem to be around, any reason why Snow over Yoshi for the scum pairings?
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Cid has... oddly enough, dropped a lot in my estimation. Though, I don't know how much of that is due to his two day long pursuit of me.
Cid is solid town in my books. If you're town, you shouldn't be wasting time telling us how bad he's going to look when you flip. Scum vibes here.
Tom, since you seem to be around, any reason why Snow over Yoshi for the scum pairings?
I've agreed with a lot of the points on Snow. Especially the stuff in Rat's recent post. Yoshi hasn't been doing huge amounts of good, but he hasn't been doing bad. I see Yoshi as neutral, so I left him out of my scum-pairing ideas.
Honestly, I'd prefer to finish Excal today. His attack on Andy feels like a last-ditch stab at misdirection. Hence why I'd rather go with Excal today and worry about Andy tomorrow.
No real problem with that from me. I'll support it.
Not a lot of time left in the day, so I think it's just about time for Excal roleclaim?
Sorry I haven't been too useful today, I feel like I'll be able to do more tomorrow when there's more information. Of course I'll probably be deeeeeeead.
I guess Xanth is probably sleeping or something, but I'd like to hear more from him; specifically - Excal or Andy, or someone else.
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specifically on*
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Tom, I'm less trying to make Cid look bad then I am trying to get my final thoughts across.
Anyways, yeah, doubt I'm gonna be awake before day ends, so let's get the final bit of accounting done.
I still think Andy is our best bet. He's been lurking hard today, specifically, not posting despite being active on the forums. And what he has accomplished early on hasn't done much to really help.
Yoshi, I'm more confident in his scummishness after his lack of reasoning to vote me, especially in the early day rush that could have gotten rid of our conversation time. So, he's a close second to Andy.
Rat, no credit given by me for his Meeple vote. He's given precious little aside from that, and he stayed on Ryogo for no apparent reason. That said, I do find it odd that the two people I tagged as likliest of those on Meep to be scum have both harrassed Yoshi, so not sure what to make of that.
Snowfire is here mostly to cover my bases, still not sure what to make of him.
Cid is no longer guaranteed town in my mind. Mostly because of the fact that voting Meeple on Day 1 has become more important than almost anything besides Alex's Tomclaim. Not sure how else I can really put it, besides that. So, yeah. Don't write Cid off, but anything else I've got is likely more biased than I'd like.
Delta... honestly, I can't see him as skilled at being in on a grand ol' bus like the rest. But, yeah. Generic could be scum warning goes here.
Xanth and Tom are town. Tom's vouched for, and Xanth just doesn't make any sense.
And... meh. Nothing else to say, so...
I am Milhouse Van Houten, and as always, I am Vanilla Town. I've got nothing else to give you, so I'm gonna swap my vote, and call it a night.
##Unvote: Andy, ##Vote: Yoshi
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Fair enough.
Hm, now Excal is on 3, Yoshi is on 3.
My vote on Andy is no longer useful; ##Unvote Andy
I want to re-read Yoshi before I go further.
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Sigh... One last thing clawing in my head that needs out.
Tom. Doubt Cid. Always keep that doubt alive, and never assume he's town without anything as strong as your endorsement or Xanth's clusterfuck.
If he's scum, then he traded a rolecop for the ability to lead town by the nose, and that's one hell of a sweet trade for him. And if you don't doubt him, then he will use you and let you win the game for him.
And if he's town, then congrats. You're making him a high profile figure who not only might be able to sniff them out, but also will never, ever, be lynched before they are. And people like that tend not to wake up.
So keep that doubt alive. It'll save him if that's in your favour, and it'll save you if it isn't.
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Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshiken, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (3): Andy, Xanth, Excal
Andy (0): Excal, EvilTom
Snowfire (1): Yoshiken
There are 6 hours left in Day Three.
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Cid has... oddly enough, dropped a lot in my estimation. Though, I don't know how much of that is due to his two day long pursuit of me. Either case, he's either scum with a lot of dressing on one mislynch, or he's town that's about to be horribly wrong. Either way, if it's me that goes down today, I am looking forward to his reaction tomorrow. It should be a hoot.
I assure you that the first thing to cross my mind in this situation will be "Why did Excal barely talk for two days if he was town?" I don't think anything in my case against you is unwarranted.
Tom. Doubt Cid. Always keep that doubt alive, and never assume he's town without anything as strong as your endorsement or Xanth's clusterfuck.
If he's scum, then he traded a rolecop for the ability to lead town by the nose, and that's one hell of a sweet trade for him. And if you don't doubt him, then he will use you and let you win the game for him.
And if he's town, then congrats. You're making him a high profile figure who not only might be able to sniff them out, but also will never, ever, be lynched before they are. And people like that tend not to wake up.
Am I reading the last sentence correctly by interpreting it as "Cid will be too full of himself to change his mind or just generally be useful?" I don't really see how else to take it. I'd like to think that this is already inaccurate since I'm no longer pursuing Xanth.
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Carthrat: Written off? No. But I've addressed the issue of Xanth's likely towniness elsewhere a bunch, so I didn't feel the need to rehash it in that post.
As for votes, er... crud. I was expecting to just come here and punch Excal's ticket, but his latest posts really do have a townier read than his earlier actions. And I suppose the Strago/Yoshi theory behind the Day1 shenanigans is about as solid. Trying not to be biased due to Yoshi's advocacy against me, but going somewhat on gut here...
## VOTE Yoshiken
I'd still be happy with a lynch of either one.
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Snowfire: Specify what about Excal's recent posts give a townie read? With examples, if possible. I would also like an explanation of how this overrides his extremely low presence the first two days and an apparent willingness to let himself get killed day two.
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Meh, didn't have anything to say for Day 1, early bit of Day 2, either wasn't here or wasn't awake for the rest of day 2, and I already explained why I didn't give much of a damn at the end of Day 2. But I'll stick it up again. Namely, I was too tired to come up with anything, and burnt out from the fact that I had just put a decent chunk of effort into a post which turned out to be utterly useless. Besides, you say gave up on Day 2 like it's a scummy thing, when Rat more accurately expresses it as a WTF thing, since Scum shouldn't do that either.
Finally, yeah. I suspect a lot of my issue with you has to do with the fact that a lot of your posts regarding me (and almost all of them are) involve something along the lines of "I could be wrong, except I'm totally not" which... yeah. Isn't really an attitude that endears you to me, especially when you totally are. But hey, I'm not expecting you to take my word for it.
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Finally, yeah. I suspect a lot of my issue with you has to do with the fact that a lot of your posts regarding me (and almost all of them are) involve something along the lines of "I could be wrong, except I'm totally not" which... yeah. Isn't really an attitude that endears you to me, especially when you totally are. But hey, I'm not expecting you to take my word for it.
Examples, please. I believe I've been quite straightforward in regards to suspecting you.
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Re-read of entire thread gave me no great revelations.
Since Yoshi is tied for hammertime, shouldn't he also be claiming or something?
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Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshiken, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (4): Andy, Xanth, Excal, Snowfire
Andy (0): Excal, EvilTom
Snowfire (1): Yoshiken
There are 2 hours left in Day Three.
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So they're basically at 4 each, assuming Yoshi votes to save himself.
Cid/Delta/Rat - what's the main, #1 reason you're voting Excal; how does this compare to Yoshi? How would the flip help town?
Same question to Andy/Xanth/Snow, but in reverse.
Question for all: is there anyone you think is scummy outside of Excal/Yoshi? (I wouldn't want to dichotomise).
May as well get some useful outlined opinions down, while we wait for Yoshi's claim which I would like to hear.
My bedtime is rapidly approaching, it's 2.30am local time here :(
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I am around and available between now and the deadline.
Tom: what is it you want? I've already talked about Excal quite a bit, and Andy as the major part of the comparison that led to my vote on Yoshi. If there's anyone that I think needs further thought from me, it would be Rat, and maybe a reinforced opinion on Cid beyond that.
Oh, and Tom ninja quickly following. Guess I'll follow that in a separate post, as this was supposed to be a wave in and that'll take a bit to answer concisely.
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Tom Question #1: Extreme lurkitude first two days. Excal's tried to explain this away, but I find it sufficently damning on its own. He didn't really get moving until he was seriously in danger. Strago also had notably low activity the first day but it's hard to gauge how relevant this is given that he had to leave the game. How would the flip help town? Well, because I think he's scum, obviously, but it's also very informative in regards to how the day one trains went down (this is a bonus, of course, and is not what's driving me to lynch him).
#2: Andy, as I've noted. Yoshi's kind of an outlier and I'd put him behind either of these two.
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Voting Yoshi pretty cleanly on the basis of some notably questionable arguments/attack patterns and Strago's noteworthy lurking and lack of voting on day 1, all of which I find to be more significant than the angle on Excal. Yoshi's flip gives us scum (hopefully!) a lot of vote dynamic, considering the relative vocalness since day 1.
Below that, I would probably rank the most scummy as Carth/Excal, leaving Xanth in a somewhat distant third.
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Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshiken, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (4): Andy, Xanth, Excal, Snowfire
Andy (0): Excal, EvilTom
Snowfire (1): Yoshiken
There is 1 hour left in Day Three.
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I've.. already outlined my case on Excal, see earlier post. tldr; vote on xanth instead of meeple, lurkiness. On the new front, though, there's what you pointed out, which is that his snarky attitude late in the day isn't helping things (and it's mostly what's pushing him ahead), and I think it's more likely out of scum-Excal than town-Excal in general. Yoshiken is suspect, though most of this stems back to day one and early day three, and since at least part of it is based on early lurkdom he had no part in it's hard not to give him a bit of slack. I am not strictly opposed to either lynch (obviously.)
I don't really think in terms of intel a flip gives to town when deciding my lynch. Either it'll hit scum or it won't and I'll pick it up from there.
If you're asking for hard opinions on absolutely everyone, I don't have anything I'm willing to be definate on. Cid seems kinda good. Delta, Xanth, Snow are iffy. Andy's position is odd. That's as much as I can say, and I hesitate to say I'd finger any one of them as clearly scummier at this point.
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To fill in Tom's little survey:
#1 reason for voting Yoshiken: I'd be lying if I didn't say that it was due to the previously mentioned process of elimination that led me to believe that we're most likely to hit scum in {Andy, Yoshi}. On then actually comparing and contrasting the two of them, it's been Yoshi's repeatedly dubious lines of thought that really made him stand out over Andy as a suspect.
How does this compare to Excal: It's funny, because it's actually today's actions that have twisted me most on my belief for Excal, which in turn has worked against my grain of trust for Snow. Of recent particular concern from Excal are the 'you'll be sorry if you lynch me' attitude (especially when later tied to a vanilla claim, unless I'm missing out on some big past context), and the sudden endorsement of me on the basis of the end of day one. I mean, I'm happy that he agrees with that and all, but I don't see why it's only just coming out now. Which yes, then leads to Snow's thumbs up based on this, and the jump from one wagon to another.
Anyway, I digress. Between the earlier low content and the more recent attitude, I've found Excal's reasoning to be of far sturdier material, which I've mostly been inclined to believe in and have a hard time seeing scum setting themselves up for such an obvious fall.
How would the flip help town: not sure if I really see the angle here beyond plain aiming to hit scum. As much as people are worrying about dichotomies, Yoshi flipping town reads a lot worse for Andy.
Who else looks scummy: Andy's next on the list, although Yoshi flipping scum would help his position. Beyond the three of them, I have Rat to reconsider, and there's a horrible mess ahead if it turns out there is scum amongst the others.
Ninjaed by everyone and their dog. Go me.
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Yikes. Made it here with less time than I thought.
OK, firstly, no role-claim to be made, I'm afraid. All I'll say is that I'm town. Vanilla town, but town nonetheless.
Judging from previous posts here, it seems suspicions pretty much decided that it's me -v- Andy, with Snow & Excal as alternatives. I'm still suspicious of a Snow/Andy pair left, especially seeing as the majority have mentioned the four I said previously, except for Andy, who neglected to mention Snow in favour of Rat.
I'll admit, though - at the moment, I'm about as confused as everyone else seems to be.
I'm not gonna change my vote for Excal just to try and survive, because I don't think he's the major problem at this point. I will, however...
##Unvote: Snowfire.
##Vote: Andy.
Probably a little too late in the day, but it's worth a shot, I guess.
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How does this compare to Excal: It's funny, because it's actually today's actions that have twisted me most on my belief for Excal, which in turn has worked against my grain of trust for Snow. Of recent particular concern from Excal are the 'you'll be sorry if you lynch me' attitude (especially when later tied to a vanilla claim, unless I'm missing out on some big past context), and the sudden endorsement of me on the basis of the end of day one. I mean, I'm happy that he agrees with that and all, but I don't see why it's only just coming out now. Which yes, then leads to Snow's thumbs up based on this, and the jump from one wagon to another.
See bolded sentence. Argh, scum can and have pulled this act to save themselves before. It doesn't really mean anything. It certainly shouldn't excuse the viable reasons for which people are on Excal's case. Also, see sentence in italics near the end of the paragraph. Are you saying you trust Excal more now because he's expressed faith in you? Aren't you at all worried that he's scum looking for a town accomplice? The fact that it's just coming out now (as you acknowledge) should be worrisome in and of itself.
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I've.. already outlined my case on Excal, see earlier post. tldr; vote on xanth instead of meeple, lurkiness.
I'm just gonna point this out now, while I can - earlier, you criticised me, saying I had "never presented a case on the guy", yet now you're using the same reasoning I did. Interesting.
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Gah, you sure know how to make it hard for me, Yoshi. I was expecting you to just tie it and assume Tom (probably) would push Excal over the top, but this makes last minute choices really annoying.
There are only twenty minutes left, as well.
Cid ninja: no, I was saying precisely that, that the timing was worrying me. That entire paragraph you've quoted was of my concerns about Excal even in the face of support from other points.
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Okay, my bad for misinterpreting. Anything I could do to persuade you to shift votes? Any questions I've left unanswered?
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This has cut too close to the end for me to be sure I'm getting anything right. Honestly I'd be more inclined to shift to Andy if I thought there was a chance.
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Is a last-minute shift to Andy viable/possible?
##Vote Andy - to find out.
TBH I'd rather lynch Excal over Yoshi. I'd rather lynch Andrew over Yoshi. Not sure if I'd rather lynch Andrew over Excal.
I'll look really stupid if Yoshi is scum, especially since I'm going on 'vibe' here rather than anything solid.
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Xanth, if you switch then I believe it is a 3-way tie.
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Oh man oh dear oh what.
##Unvote: Yoshiken
##Vote: Andrew
Incoming clusterfuck.
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I'll look really stupid if Yoshi is scum, especially since I'm going on 'vibe' here rather than anything solid.
And I'll look really stupid if this doesn't work out. I'm pretty much certain that Andy's scum at this point, and if he flips town... Well, I'm pretty much gone tomorrow. And, if that happens... well, that's 4 town in 2 days, with only 9 players remaining? Not good.
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Sigh. On another topic, I'm also not sure what to make of Yoshi's declining to drop a vote on Excal, especially he's already done so once today. I mean, it'd make perfect sense for him to do so whether he's town or scum. Yoshi, are you somehow more confident in Excal's towniness than your own?
EDIT: Ninjastorm what.
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Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshiken, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (3): Andy, Xanth, Excal, Snowfire
Andy (3): Excal, EvilTom, Yoshiken, EvilTom, Xanth
Snowfire (0): Yoshiken
There are 15 minutes left in Day Three.
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lol
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...Three-way sudden death. Guys, please, could you make a scenario that will be more confusing for us to puzzle out tomorrow?
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Sigh. On another topic, I'm also not sure what to make of Yoshi's declining to drop a vote on Excal, especially he's already done so once today. I mean, it'd make perfect sense for him to do so whether he's town or scum. Yoshi, are you somehow more confident in Excal's towniness than your own?
Not so much his towniness as a combination of towniness and competence. I know that I look incredibly suspicious to everyone, and I know that that's mostly because of flawed arguments. Excal, on the other hand, looks suspicious for being mostly quiet & voting Xanth Day1, but has provided good, clear arguments.
I know I'm incompetent town. He seems competent to me, and I'm really not sure on town/scum any more. Overall, I think it'd be more beneficial to town for him to survive.
Wow, this has turned into a total mess. More than it was before, I mean. =/
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Ack, something else I just considered. Tom, can you please give a rundown of what you think, depending on if/then with the current lynch-suspects?
Seeing as you're a certain town, it's quite probable that you'll be nightkilled, as you've said yourself before. If that's the case, I'd like to have your opinions in the open for everyone to consider.
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Not so much his towniness as a combination of towniness and competence. I know that I look incredibly suspicious to everyone, and I know that that's mostly because of flawed arguments. Excal, on the other hand, looks suspicious for being mostly quiet & voting Xanth Day1, but has provided good, clear arguments.
I know I'm incompetent town. He seems competent to me, and I'm really not sure on town/scum any more. Overall, I think it'd be more beneficial to town for him to survive.
If you're not sure on his alignment, then again, I'm really weirded out by you favoring his survival over your own. Also, I must again reiterate that Excal's arguments didn't appear until he was heavily pressed for them by several players and nearly killed on day two. Someone's current attitude is not the be-all-end-all of their play this game. Look at the record.
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Holy Crap. I leave for a day, and look what happens.
Excal looks extremely scummy to me right now, because he appears to have meta-gamed himself, saying in his role-claim that he is Vanilla Town, as usual. A Yoshi lynch also looks nice, his flawed arguements working against him, but I don't know. It is between Excal and Yoshi for me. One of you, convince me.
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Cid, it's not that I favoured his survival over mine - hence the vote for Andy. I'm 99.9% sure Andy's scum, and if he's not, then I'm gone tomorrow. Risk I'm willing to take.
As for the other, I'm still torn between Snow & Rat.
Anyways, I'm not favouring his survival over mine - I'm saying that I favour neither in particular. Competent likely-town (based on elimination of my potential-scum) or incompetent town.
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Yeah ok.
Andrew, Excal are my top 2 scummies. Not sure if I'd put them on a team together.
Xanth/ Snow are next
Then Rat and Delta, Yoshi too
Then Cid, for if he is scum, I give up now.
----------
Andrew - Lurking + his attack on me.
Excal - Generally lurking
Xanth - dodgyness early on, persisted in arguing things such as how he was town because of the end of day 1, how Rat was cleared for spotting votecounts etc.
Snow - Rat summed it up nicely a couple of pages ago, also he made a couple of dodgy statements early on. CBF looking now, no time.
Rat - Pointing out a voting error is not towny. He's been very very quiet. Is he hunting bunny wabbits? But when he talks, it's good stuff.
Delta - Wildcard. People have given him lotsa cred for lynch.. but still. Eh.
Yooshi - Vibe
etc.
No time, posting.
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3-way sudden death?
Crap.
This may be a loonggg night.
-
Excal looks extremely scummy to me right now, because he appears to have meta-gamed himself,
Delta, metagaming isn't really a scumtell.
One of you, convince me.
Don't let scum choose for you.
Which reminds me, Delta said some really dodgy stuff towards Alex, when Alex verified I was town, and Delta refused to unvote me, and basically rolefished Alex. Worth remembering. scumDelta not impossible.
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TIME.
Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshiken, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (3): Andy, Xanth, Excal, Snowfire
Andy (3): Excal, EvilTom, Yoshiken, EvilTom, Xanth
Snowfire (0): Yoshiken
We are now in SUDDEN DEATH. The first person between Excal, Yoshi and Andy to hit 4 votes will be lynched.
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Delta: I've gone over my reasons for Excal extensively, but I can at least explain why I prioritize Yoshi lower than him and Andy. Yoshi's made cases I disagree with, but ones that are at least understandable for a townie. Alex, for example? It doesn't really surprise me to see someone criticizing Alex day two for defending Meeple on day one. It might've been wrong, but it made sense, and Yoshi certainly didn't need the prod to get active that Excal did. As for his early lurking as compared to Andy and Excal's? Again, Strago having to leave the game skews this, so it's hard to read. Given how active Yoshi's been since joining, I'm inclined to read the early Strago/Yoshi inaction as less egregious than today's other lynch candidates.
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Yeesh. I've nothing much to add to what I said earlier. Vanilla Town, 99.9% sure Andy's scum, secondary thought of Snow/Rat.
I'll be interested in what the others have to say on this matter. And if either of them change votes to hit the other.
I, on the other hand, will almost certainly be keeping my vote as it is.
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Seconding Tom on Excal's roleclaim not being telling one way or another. There are plenty of things to hold against him but I don't think that's one of them.
Also noting that Tom's suspect list looks pretty much like mine right now, save with Yoshi just above Xanth.
-
I could hammer Yoshi or Andy now, but I cannot see a difference between them right now.
@ET:
The stuff I said to Alex was simply following on from his defense of meeple in Day one, and the fact that he had virtually role-claimed possible cop in a rather rash move to cover you. Of course, he came out as town, but no-one knew that then.
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Am I missing where this certainty's coming from, Yoshi? You've been on Excal and Snow before Andy today, so I'm a little confused as to why you're suddenly betting quite so much on this particular flip. Forgive me if it's written clearly, I'm just rushing to get these posts out now.
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Am I missing where this certainty's coming from, Yoshi? You've been on Excal and Snow before Andy today, so I'm a little confused as to why you're suddenly betting quite so much on this particular flip. Forgive me if it's written clearly, I'm just rushing to get these posts out now.
Seconding this request (oh god must type fast before ninja happens).
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Am I missing where this certainty's coming from, Yoshi? You've been on Excal and Snow before Andy today, so I'm a little confused as to why you're suddenly betting quite so much on this particular flip. Forgive me if it's written clearly, I'm just rushing to get these posts out now.
Seconding this request (oh god must type fast before ninja happens).
Thirding this request also.
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Yoshi could have voted Excal to save himself, and he could do so now. I think that's worth some town cred. He could have easily come up with a semi-legit case, or even claimed survival.
I can't see Yosh as scum in light of this.
Ironically, two of the three people voting Yosh are the other two trains. And Snow has been AWOL for a while.
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I posted earlier in the day that Snow > Andy > Excal/Rat. Since then, Excal's only seemed more townish in his actions, which is why I narrowed it down to these three as the main suspects. However, I then found myself agreeing with a lot of the logic that Cid presented here: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg53191#msg53191
Now, forgive me for basing my opinions on someone else's portrayal of events, but that's a fairly convincing argument.
And, call it instinct if you will, but I just don't see a Snow/Rat team. I'd love to delve into this further, but I honestly can't. Andy seems like the main suspect of the three, and if he's town, then that only leaves me with Snow/Rat (and an almost-certain lynch.)
-
Snow's likely at work. He's stated his hours several times, so I'm inclined to believe that's why he's not here.
-
Sory but bed time for me. Good luck :3
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Personally, if I had the guts to do it, I would hammer yoshi after his post when he posts, but that is my one big flaw in Mafia, I almost feel sly taking people out of the game.
In order of suspicion:
Yoshi,
Excal,
Andy,
Xanth.
Putting us in this 3-way situation has not helped our cause. We now have 3 'teams' vying to get their person lynched. To me, it is currently MADDENING!
ETninja'd: That is actually an Excellent point there.
Yoshininja'd: I see your/Cid's points also.
Meeple himself made an effort to respond to his accusers in turn...but he never acknowledged Andy. It's easy for scum to forget to respond in-topic to people that they can talk to outside of it.
That bit caught me, especially. My opinions of Yoshi have rocketed now, but I am still on the fence here.
El Ninjao'd: How long until he gets home?
ETninja'd again: See ya.
-
And, sorry if that post contradicted myself about Yoshi, but I wanted it all out, and forgot to edit it.
-
Personally, if I had the guts to do it, I would hammer yoshi after his post when he posts, but that is my one big flaw in Mafia, I almost feel sly taking people out of the game.
As said before, I'm not surprised, to be honest - I can see that my arguments were flawed a few times, now that they've been pointed out. But, at the very least, I'd like to see if Andy would care to role-claim before this split is decided...
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Have you role claimed? Being in sudden death, you may want to consider it because someone on your train may well ask soon.
-
But save it for now!
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Ahh, afraid it's already been mentioned twice, I think.
-
I mostly agree, Tom. That's part of the line for my last minute switch. The possibility of a Excal/Yoshi team is my first line of concern in this position, which is possible and hardly abated by the early push on Excal at the start of today. It's such a horrible mess, the timing would have to be perfect, the odds of it working are shallow at best unless someone knows me really well, and... yeah, it's just so much of a mess I can't see it. I'm convinced enough to make the swap in the first place, but it doesn't stop me from worrying when everything's now getting so rushed.
7 ninjas. sgfdgfdasfaerg
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Delta: Yoshi claimed vanilla. Guess it's easy to lose posts in the shuffle, the way things are going. And, I don't think Snowfire will be home for several hours still. Also agreeing that this 3-way sudden death is pretty much a horrible way to end the day and will seriously muddy the waters tomorrow. Why, Xanth? Why.
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I Agree with El Cid there, why did you have to throw us into this situation?
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It's more me complaining about the headache it's giving me, Delta. I don't think it's worth hassling Xanth about it right now. We've got three people tied for the lynch and a single switched vote will condemn any one of them. Let's worry about that. >.>
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As messy as it is, my intentions have been quite clear. I assume Cid is asking solely about the messiness of it all (sorry, Andy > Excal in lieu of Yoshi's swaying), whereas Delta actually doesn't understand how this has come about (see tons of the above - chain of suspicion working down).
Cid ninja. Yeah, as thought.
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Man, I'm just idly going to point out how Yoshi is the only of the three candidates who's actually here and being responsive. I don't expect people to live online, but this isn't the first time that Andy and Excal have managed to be gone at a time when critical decisions needed to be made. I have to wonder how long we're going to give out free license to do this.
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Right now, with Andrew having contributed little, responded little to arguements and accusations, and having lurked for alot of the critical deicisions, I am in favor of an Andrew lynch over an Excal lynch right now.
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Well, you're in a position to make that happen, but let me state for the record that it scares the hell out of me to see Excal get away with this again.
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I'd still like to see if Andy has a role-claim to make. It's not likely to improve my opinion of him much, but I'd be interested to see if it changed other people's opinions for better or worse.
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Yeah, I'm not entirely sure where Andy dropped off to, at like an hour before the deadline (likewise Rat, to be fair). I was at least expecting Excal not to be around, as little as that matters.
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Personally, I don't expect to see him back. He knew when the deadline was, and we're past it now. If he was going to check in, he would've done it earlier.
If everyone who's still active is completely unwilling to move to Excal, then I'd say let's the drop the hammer on Andy and be done with it. This godforsaken day has gone on long enough.
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Sorry Cid, I'm unsurprisingly set in my vote at this point. Delta's your guy to wait on at the minute.
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Frankly ready to just drop the hammer myself if no one objects within the next five minutes or so. I don't appear to b e convincing anyone, Andy is my second best target, this day sucks and it needs to end. The discussion seems to have lapsed, and I want to get a flip and walk away from the computer already. May as well announce that:
If you've got something to say, let me know in the next couple minutes. Otherwise, hammer falls.
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I'd still personally like to see if Andy role-claims, but I guess it's not really necessary.
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Delta was writing a post, but has fallen off of the activity deelie. I don't have a clue if he's going to be back shortly or not, but did seem to be heading towards Andy as well anyway.
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Alright, then. Let's do this thing.
##Unvote: Excal
##Vote: Andy
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HAMMER. FINALLY. STOP TALKING.
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The town stood... and stood... and stood... unable to come to a decision on who to lynch. The tension was palpable. Suddenly, one of them started screaming and pulled out an axe.
"Hood on! Ahm comin' ta save tha lot a yehs!"
This sudden movement generated an immediate reaction to the crowd... immediately lynching the poor groundskeeper.
"Ach. Ahm bad at this..."
And so, Groundskeeper Willie fell over dead... Upon searching his body, they found a Stonecutter's Membership Card and the real 9-1-2 telephone card. Looks like the tension of being caught got to the poor Scot. He's swimming with Nessie now.
Votecount:
Excal (2): Cid, Yoshiken, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (3): Andy, Xanth, Excal, Snowfire
Andy (4): Excal, EvilTom, Yoshiken, EvilTom, Xanth, Cid
Snowfire (0): Yoshiken
Andy AKA Groundskeeper Willie, VANILLA SCUM, was lynched!
It is now Night Three. Please send in night actions.
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Principal Seymour Skinner had many enemies, as did Armin Tamzarian, his old alias. More enemies than just the Stonecutters anyway... So it's very appropriate that Seymour was discovered the next day killed twice over... an axe to the back and a bullet in the gut.
Carthrat AKA Principal Seymour Skinner, VANILLA TOWN, was killed overnight!
Day Four begins now. It ends in 48 hours.
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
-
That went pretty well :D
*cheers*
Now, time to review meeple/andy/X teams. Assuming lone scum now.
-
At work so this will be short. Cid looks better. Yoshi too. Of the four I was looking at yesterday Andy = scum, Rat = dead, Yoshi = town, and just Snow remains. Still want to double check, but feel good about this.
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Interesting. So Andy was scum. This makes a fair amount of sense - seems El Cid was on point about Andy's posts.
Reconstructing Day 1's events... Andy votes for Delta. Meeple immediately hops on board, perhaps overzealously (or perhaps this was planned to give Andy credit later should Meeple ever be lynched?). Andy turns around and starts viciously attacking Meeple, and to a lesser extent me and later Xanth. When decision time comes... yeah, especially before the copclaim, it would have looked strange to switch over. Andy then generally tosses flames around to see what sticks.
Also, preemptive reply to Yoshiken: You seemed very convinced that I was scum yesterday, voting for me and still advocating against me. You also suggested the Snow/Andy/Meeple combo, so I expect to be criticized again. That said, I just did some archive diving... is there anything in specific you want me to answer for? Most of your thoughts I feel were addressed in a somewhat reasonable way, but even towards the end you made it clear I was your number 1 suspect though not really offering much up behind it.
General thoughts:
Things look very good for the town. Assuming 3 scum, which seems very likely... El Cid has risen even farther in towniness. If El Cid and Andy both hopped on the anti-Meeple train, then bravo for courage, but.... yeah. And El Cid hammered Andy when he had such an easy excuse to hammer a townie instead.
Xanth remains "likely town" from the Day1 shenanigans, also hopped on Andy train yesterday. EvilTom is pretty much confirmed town.
Yoshiken voted for Andy when this didn't have to happen and the move to seriously lynch him came late. And Yoshiken was around to switch his vote, too, which could probably be defended fairly easily. While I can't agree with Yoshiken's thoughts, he seems much more likely to be town today. Since there's still an active cop I really have a hard time believing that the scum would just throw away what's likely half their team.
Delta is still a wildcard.
That leaves.... Excal. Hmm. Seems like most of the logic worked out on Day 3 still holds. In reply to El Cid's query... the reason I switched from Excal off to Yoshiken was mostly a gut thing from the morning. I figured that both were about equally likely to be scum, and Yoshiken had made some suspicious arguments and also attacked somebody I was pretty certain to be town (me). Excal, meanwhile, seemed to be trying to genuinely help the town out toward the end when he thought he'd be lynched. Obviously possibly an act, but so it goes.
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Okay, quick re-read of thread provides me with ##Vote Excal
It's him or snow, but I think it's him.
Kudos to Excal for keeping alive for so long if he's scum (which I think he is).
If not, it's Snow tomorrow.
Suspicions on Xanth cleared from end of yesterday, I've always thought Cid was town, Rat is dead, I'm Town, Yoshi is cleared from end of yesterday... down to Excal and Snow.
-
Okay, so I wasn't expecting that. You'll notice that Rat was killed twice. It's the middle of the night here and I only got up to check if the game had ended or not, but I'd like to point out that the bullet was from me, as I am Maggie Simpson - a one shot vigilante. I did bread crumb this, but in a way that'll take half an hour to quote, so please wait until morning for that.
In any case, I was hoping that would remove any remaining doubts in people's minds of my allegiance, if the whole swing to Andy wasn't already enough. With assumedly one scum and three attempts left, we really should win now. Night night.
-
...huh.
That, or scum were roleblocked, or the doc succeded, or who knows. Weird.
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Tom:
Seymour was discovered the next day killed twice over... an axe to the back and a bullet in the gut.
Bullet from me, axe from the stone cutter. I was initially hoping that seeing only one kill down meant that we could clear someone else as well from doctoring or something, but this seems rather particularly worded.
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I'm trying really hard not to be weirded out by that flavor text. "Killed twice." What. Anyway, onwards to more serious stuff.
Knowing two-thirds of the scum team gives us a lot of information to work with (I'm assuming there's only one scum player left; three total is the typical amount for a game this size). Immediate repurcussions of Andy's flip, for example?
-Xanth looks a lot better. Made a push to get Andy in the running at the last minute, and his vote brought about the tie that eventually led to Andy's lynch. If Xanth was the third scum, he could've easily stuck with Yoshi or Excal and not looked bad for it at all. So Xanth's pretty much off the books at this point as far as I'm concerned.
-Yoshi benefits from this as well. If Yoshi was the third scum, he could've easily gone with Excal's lynch with no negative repurcussions. Survival vote + Excal being suspected by a number of people and the runner-up for votes at that time. I wouldn't necessarily call him cleared, but he's certainly less of a suspect.
You know, for all that I bitched about three-way sudden death yesterday, it's paid unexpected dividends. Man. Anyway, surviving players break down as follows:
Xanth/Tom/Delta: Effectively cleared of suspicion. See above for Xanth, Tom has Alex's roleclaim and subsequent flip going for him, and Delta...well, yes, I'm going back to him voting Meeple on day one. But we now know for sure that there was a scum player stuck on Meeple's train (Andy). It would be insane for both of Meeple's comrades to be boosting his votecount that early, especially since...yeah, again, it was Delta's vote that pushed Meeple in the lead at a time when one or two vote totals were common. So, barring the craziest gambit ever or a totally uncoordinated scum team (and I think I've made it clear that I default to simpler explanations than either of those theories), Delta's looking solidly townie to me.
So, on to the suspects. First, I'd like to quote Snowfire's post from yesterday wherein he broke day one's events down into two scenarios, because it's easier than explaining it all again myself. (Yes, I am quoting someone who's not totally cleared in order to support my own arguments, but I believe that the analysis herein is sound and, moreover, can be applied to Snowfire himself anyway).
Let's assume that there are 3 scum in the game (if there are 4, then the scum totally failed it up on Day1). I'm also going to assume that Xanth is not scum, as if he is then headaches ensue. Scenario A: Both the other scum did in fact try to cover for Meeple. This is a bright line leading to both Excal / YoshiStrago, as Excal voted for Xanth and Strago was absent. Scenario B: One of the scum was on the Meeple train early when he didn't think it would take off. Then, either due to genuine inactivity or the fact that it would look too suspicious to flip, their vote stayed on Meeple the length of Day1. The second scum was supposed to cover for Meeple.
Scenario A has now been demonstrated to be impossible, since only one of Yoshi/Snowfire/Excal (the living players with either a vote on not!Meeple or no active vote at all) can be scum and that situation calls for two. We now know that scenario B is at least partially true--there was a scum player stuck on Meeple (Andy). Given that, it makes perfect sense that the third scum would be trying to push a case on someone else to save him. So, we look at Xanth votes: Ryogo is dead, Tom is effectively cleared, Excal winds up being the odd man out. For the sake of thoroughness, though, I'll examine everyone.
Yoshi/Snowfire: Not perfectly cleared, but various circumstances make me less likely to believe they're scum at this point. Yoshi, for example? While yesterday's drawing to a close, he sticks with the player he thinks is scum even though it might cost him his own life. And he turns out to be right about it. Also...guess who Andy's vote was on yesterday? Right, Yoshi.
If Snowfire was scum, then he had a perfectly justifiable chance to lynch Xanth (and, in effect, save Meeple) day one and utterly failed to act on it. For all my reminders that scum are as fallible as town, even I have a hard time believing this one. Snowfire was around for sudden death, he did have time to hammer Xanth if he was inclined to do so. Instead, he...tries to back off both Meeple and Xanth and vote for Tom instead. I find it extraordinarily unlikely that scum would do this when one of their own (and a power role at that) hangs in the balance.
Excal: I've touched on this a little in the above paragraphs, but: process of elimination makes him a likely candidate, severe lurking the first two days makes him a likely candidate, being on two trains that have turned out to target virtually confirmed townies makes him a likely candidate. Add in his attack on Andy yesterday, which seems like a last ditch effort to draw battle lines between the two of them so that we won't link them together. Andy never responded to Excal on this matter. We've seen this kind of slip before in this very game: Andy/Meeple on day one. And Excal himself didn't stick with the case. In the end he went with...Yoshi. The same person Andy was voting on.
##Vote: Excal
EDIT: Tripleninja, doesn't change much.
-
Wait...Just saw the bit with Xanth's roleclaim. Xanth, I have to wonder: why Carthrat? I'd pretty much considered Rat cleared once Andy flipped scum (same reasons as Delta, basically).
-
Ah yeah I didn't read the flavourtext. Not that I'm suspicious, but yeah, why Rat?
-
So, Cid. Would it have looked better if I had said screw living a second time and decided to stick with my guns? After all, if Yoshi wasn't convinced enough to run for Andy, odds were good I was fried.
Anyways, I'm not sure there's a heck of a lot else for me to say. I think Snow looks the worst of those remaining, but everyone else besides me has one thing very much in their camp, and I regretfully do have to admit that I don't. Which also means that aside from what I've already said, I've currently got nothing.
-
So, Cid. Would it have looked better if I had said screw living a second time and decided to stick with my guns? After all, if Yoshi wasn't convinced enough to run for Andy, odds were good I was fried.
No. But pointing out that you refrained from doing something suicidal does not automatically prove that what you did do was in town's interest.
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well, I seem to be unable to get back to sleep, so let's get through this.
My bread-crumbing was in the post subject nonsense I shove with every post. Seemed like a good way to get people paranoid in the future.
Links to the post in question with each part:
Gerbil Tan Skill (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg53100#msg53100)
Monopole Tagline Gandhi (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg53109#msg53109)
Master Pan Stew (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg53130#msg53130)
Pepper Goomba Knight (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg53142#msg53142)
Oaken Knot Brandy (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg53231#msg53231)
Plaintiff Radical Pinch (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg53238#msg53238)
WHAT WHAT WHAT (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg53247#msg53247)
Anew Airplane Errata (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg53266#msg53266)
Where the original plan was to kill Andy, then I got cold feet about that and changed my mind to Yoshi in the case that Excal was lynched (yeah, couldn't think of a good way of camouflaging 'lynch' in that time frame, so just went with a rhyme), and then the last minute craziness had me rethink ten layers of what the hell was going on.
And why Rat? I guess I just wasn't seeing him nearly as town as you are, based on assumedly the too-many-votes-on-Meeple thing? Whilst Andy flipping scum lessened the charges on Rat (more so because it'd be odd for scum to be acting so alike), I was unconvinced that the vote on Meeple wasn't just too early and just was badly timed for removal, which combined with low presence and some really, really odd comments, in particular the whole 'let's vote for Ryogo even if we're sure he's going to be modkilled' thing, which I really, really couldn't get my head around as a town thought.
In short, because he was next down my list given Andy died, Yoshi's cleared immensely and I'm as edgy as ever about the Excal case.
I can only assume that scum went for him over Tom (or myself - I was fairly worried that the Andy swing might combine with my admission to having a power might get me NKed instead) because they were expecting to hit a power role, because otherwise I'm boggled by the preference of NK target. Thrilled (one more lynch than I was expecting us to get), but boggled.
And now to try to sleep again. Next post from me should be about where my lines lead me next, which I really shouldn't do when I'm not completely conscious. What I need to do is take a deep breath and take a long, solid view at Snow to convince myself one way or the other. Excal's the obvious lynch if I really can't find anyone else at fault, but I'm still not behind it.
-
Sigh... Cid, I know you think I'm scum. I know I can't do anything to convince you otherwise besides letting you see my flip, and I want to try and put that off as long as I can. But I would like to say that, for some odd reason, the way you're putting it is getting really, really, damn aggrivating.
So I'd appreciate it if you'd lay off just a bit instead of feeling a need to reiterate that in every single post.
And yeah, I'm sure you'll find some way to turn this back around on me. But I'd like to get this out in the open for everyone else instead of just getting more and more snarky for no easily apparent reason.
-
Oh yeah, don't think I said this yet. Tom, if I am scum, then I deserve absolutely no kudos for surviving this far. Day 2 I did jack all to save myself, and Day 3 my grand strategy was to... do everything to bus my last remaining scum mate that I could possibly think of. Might be alright for personal survival, sure. But that's one hell of a losing strategy.
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Right, well, I was supposed to be busy this morning, but fate continues to conspire to get me to spend as much time as possible here. So sure, let's work on the main post now.
Tom is clear. Even without the mason endorsement I'd trust him.
Yoshi is basically clear.
Delta is basically clear. The only way I can see scumDelta working is if there was a plan to give him major credit by being in such town/scum decisions and heading towards scum twice, which is unlikely to say the least.
Cid... I still can't bring myself to vote for him. Niggling doubts here and there, but I don't think I can genuinely bring myself to back them. Mostly silly crap that I can't even bring myself to mention.
So yes, if this went to the final three and I was somehow still around, then I'd be choosing between Delta and Cid at that point. I would struggle immensely to put one over the other at this point, but cutely I'm pretty sure we'll get enough information between now and then to make the distinction more obvious should it be needed, which it hopefully won't.
For now, though, this does leave Excal and Snow at the top of the pile. The two guys I keep on defending.
Excal, as what is becoming a running gag, continues to raise points that make me doubt him, even as I sit here in my tin-foil hat screaming 'I WANT TO BELIEVE'. The latest is his claim of why his day three actions would be terrible as scum - I counter that if you were expecting to go down in flames that day then it would be perfectly reasonable to throw ire at your scumbuddy before acting to save yourself in order to distance yourself from him. Sure it makes less sense if you actually expect him to get lynched, but then who saw that lynch coming?
Even then, even now, thinking of Excal as scum gives me headaches. I just can't see it. It's just one gigantic mess if true. It reads like he's dependent on other people keeping him in, and there's just patently no chance for survival that way since people are running out of suspects far too quickly. Even I, number one member of his fan club this game, am struggling not to vote him on the basis of 'well, there's no one else to vote for' at this point.
Which does leave us with only Snow to consider. The thing is, the main evidence holding back on him is the sudden death activity on day one, and I'm wondering just how much that can cover if we work from the thought that it didn't matter who Snow voted for at that point given that my death looked inevitable even without the interjection. If I can't bring myself to trust him completely over that, then my opinion drops a ton. This clearly deserves a thorough combing later on in the day when I have the time, but when the first thing I spot on skimming Snow's posts is:
AndrewRogue: Not sure if I'm as against him as El Cid; yesterday was Saturday after all, and any player (scum or town) would probably have switched their vote if they'd been genuinely active. And EvilTom was already out of the woods as far as being lynched. The one notable exception to this scenario... a scumteam with Meeple/Andy/Excal. In that case, pretending inactivity and letting Ryogo get lynched would be in his interest (as swapping to Ryogo would look a bit odd). In other words, if we lynch Excal and he flips scum, AndrewRogue will look really evil. Otherwise, he's at a similar level to, say, Carth (both on the Meeple train Day1, both somewhat quiet Day2).
I'm immediately worried. Lynch Excal and if he comes up town then Andy looks a lot better? Ouch ouch ouch ouch ouch.
I will reassess this later in the day with a full examination of Snow for the first time in a while, but for now my intention is clearly:
##Vote: Snowfire
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Snow huh. I have been suspicious of him.
Looks like we're waiting on Delta/Yoshi to see if the scales tip.
-
Wow. I definitely was not expecting a Rat-kill from scum. o_O I was still quite suspicious of Rat, so I guess that clears that one up...
I've been thinking about this for quite a while today and, unfortunately, most of my thoughts have already been stated. (Mostly the parts with: Excal saying Andy looked more suspicious than me, then voting me, which he's already argued against, and my thoughts yesterday on Andy & Snow/Rat for remaining scum.)
Obviously, I still have some doubts on Excal. Mostly stemming from the post yesterday, as well as the arguments over the previous days...
Snow, again, no more than I've mentioned previous days.
I'm really not sure if killing Rat was clever or stupid of scum - sure, they took out a suspicious player w/o a role, but they're confusing the hell out of us, it seems.
I'm... gonna have to see how things develop. It's good that we have a few days left - 7 players and assumedly only 1 scum. I'd be interested to see how roles are playing out now... One of my main thoughts today was that I'd return to find a cop claim saying someone was scum and that would be the end of it, but it seems I was wrong about that. Which led to me picking up on one particular line that hasn't been mentioned yet...
Since there's still an active cop I really have a hard time believing that the scum would just throw away what's likely half their team.
Interesting. We aren't actually certain there's even a cop involved, are we? Unless I've missed something major here.
Oh, and that led me to find...
Also, preemptive reply to Yoshiken: You seemed very convinced that I was scum yesterday, voting for me and still advocating against me. You also suggested the Snow/Andy/Meeple combo, so I expect to be criticized again. That said, I just did some archive diving... is there anything in specific you want me to answer for? Most of your thoughts I feel were addressed in a somewhat reasonable way, but even towards the end you made it clear I was your number 1 suspect though not really offering much up behind it.
Firstly, I'll clarify that I did say that you, Rat & Excal all remained suspicious. Excal managed to clear a lot of that suspicion through posts that just seemed townish - you even said that yourself here. (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg53221#msg53221)
With Rat dead, of course, you're right that that would make you seem most suspicious... but now I'm back to thinking about Excal. Why? Mostly through elimination - although Delta's still not clear in my books.
Excal & Snow were two of my main suspects throughout, so I'm back to that.
For now, this post is getting too long, so I'll leave my comments on the events here for now and post back later with main suspicions and reasons.
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Votecount:
Excal (1)- Cid
Snowfire (1)- Yoshiken
There are 30 hours left in Day Four.
Was Xanth, not me. ^^
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My bad.
Insert Quote
Votecount:
Excal (2)- EvilTom, Cid
Snowfire (1)- Xanth
There are 30 hours left in Day Four.
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Quick correction to votecount: Tom also has a vote on Excal.
Other stuff incoming.
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So I'd appreciate it if you'd lay off just a bit instead of feeling a need to reiterate that in every single post.
You're asking me to stop pursuing someone who I believe has a mountain of evidence in favor of their being scum. I see no good reason to do this and you should know how silly the request is. You're the top suspect and I will continue to pursue you because, well, that's the game, man. Also: I've got all of three posts down today. In reverse order: one is a note to the mod that the votecount is wrong; one is a direct response to a question by you; the first, however, is an exhaustive analysis of the surviving players. You make it sound as though I only talk about you and have been working in a vacuum. This is patently untrue. Also, if you make a post directed squarely at me, expect me to respond to it. Asking me to leave you alone and then getting upset when I respond directly to that request would be entrapment and a blatant attempt to invoke a persecution complex.
Explain what about my presentation is aggrivating, please. "Some odd reason" is vague and gives me little to work with. Quotes and examples, please. I asked about this yesterday and you never answered. I am confident that I've done nothing but examine facts in a clinical fashion. What I really think is going on here is that you're running an appeal to emotion and trying to paint yourself as a victim, perhaps drawing a parallel to Tom vs. Xanth on day two. This is inaccurate. I've made it explicitly clear why I suspect you, drawing on low presence, voting records, being present on bad trains, and more. If people find flaws in my logic they are welcome to point them out, but presenting yourself as a martyr is not the proper response.
I believe this is an impression that you are cultivating intentionally because it helped you survive on day three, particularly in regards to Snowfire and Yoshi. It's because of this that I feel the need to direct some of my commentary at them.
~
So, Snowfire and Yoshi: please read in detail my opening post from this day. Alert me if you find any inconsistencies or oversights. Make every possible effort not to factor in emotional responses; it sounds cold, but they do not help us find scum. I've been seeing a lot of talk from you guys to the extent that Excal looks better for his behavior on day three, but completely without citations of specific arguments or posts. Just general impressions of "towniness." Personally, I don't put much stock in gut reactions. I stopped paying attention to my own a long time ago because they were always wrong. (I'd also note, again, that none of this behavior happened until after Excal had almost died day two and been hit with substantial criticism from several different people. This is not town play. Excal play on day one/two was remarkably similar to Andy's during that period, and lynching Andy for that netted us scum yesterday.)
Anyone, of any alignment, can profess that they're town and that we'll be sorry if we lynch them; such protestations are fundamentally meaningless because it makes sense for either alignment to make them. Someone being defensive doesn't prove that they're town; someone getting riled up doesn't prove that they're being unjustly persecuted. Meeple pulled this act day one just before sudden death. Meeple was scum. You cannot rely on emotional reactions to determine someone's alignment, because scum can and will exploit your perceptions of such at every opportunity. I'd ask you to take a close look at the facts as presented in my first post of today and give me your input on whether or not my analysis is sound. I firmly believe that it is, but I don't seem to have been reaching you guys. So: I formally request you take time to read through it (even if you have already) and respond to me with regard to its flaws and merits. Do your best to set aside preconceptions based on gut reactions, look at my arguments in depth and consult the record to ascertain their validity.
-
Even then, even now, thinking of Excal as scum gives me headaches. I just can't see it. It's just one gigantic mess if true. It reads like he's dependent on other people keeping him in, and there's just patently no chance for survival that way since people are running out of suspects far too quickly. Even I, number one member of his fan club this game, am struggling not to vote him on the basis of 'well, there's no one else to vote for' at this point.
What precisely doesn't mesh in your mind, Xanth? Day one/two make a lot of sense to me with scum Excal. Beyond that? Again, you assume far too much on the basis of scum always being at the top of their game. We already know the scum team has effed up royally in this very game. See: Meeple making a bad vote for obviously bad reasons, having the wrath of town fall on him as a result; Andy's vote being stuck on Meeple because he was away while the Meeple case picked up steam. Things don't always go their way and they often have to improvise to make the best of a bad situation.
Please, stop discounting ideas just because they mean scum wouldn't be following an ideal course of action. Scum do whatever it takes to survive; they don't always have a grand master plan, because sometimes circumstances don't give them the time to formulate one. After Excal's day two, whatever kept him alive would've been attractive, even if it meant relying on the goodwill of townies (which, seriously, is something scum want anyway). You're running yourself in circles here. Eliminate the "Scum don't make mistakes" mindset and take a fresh look at things.
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Apologies for my Absences, I will post tommorow morning with all my thoughts on events.
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OK, time to go through everyone left... Warning! Major Wall of Text approaching!
Would break it down into two posts, but that seems kinda pointless. Game's nearly over anyway, right? ;-)
Tom, there's no doubt about. He's town, simple as that.
Now, the not-so-suspicious...
From here, I'll say that this is from going through every post from the start to now, so take all of this as it is, and not in light of previous posts.
Cid - Voted Andy & Meep Day1. Didn't change to Xanth after cop claim. Continued pressure on suspicious players, and the flip to lynch Andy just to end SD. Yeah, not seeing scumCid at all.
Xanth - Still can't see both of them being scum in Day1SD - the logic holds true, even if Xanth had expected Meeple could somehow be killed. Would be suspicious if logic didn't tell me otherwise.
Hrm. The three more suspicious ones...
Delta - Lots of inactivity suspicion/votes Day1, lots of possible-OMGUS as a result - who were mostly scum, to be fair. Went on to reiterate what had already been said - clarification or scum cover? Well-timed MeepVote for town, and had Andy & Meep start against him. Vote for Tom Day2, but doubting Alex understandable at the time.
Excal - Commented on Cid agreeing on Meeple, but voting Andy. Lots of attacks on Cid... Scum, reason for Cid's targeting or neither? Suddenly kicks into life upon being accused, and then gives his most townish posts on threat of Day3 lynch. Day1 on likely town, no vote Day2, Day3 on town. Expected to die Day2 with either only two posts or no effort to defend self. Said Andy was main suspect, never got questioned by Andy. Also, see all points below.
Snow - Says Delta = inactive = pointless vote. Votes Bard, corrects & changes to Rat for inactivity = pointless vote by his logic? (I know the difference between single post & no post, but... no vote & jokephase vote?) Defended Xanth in Day1SD - town or looking for town ally? (WIFOM, yes, but just both possibilities) - Also defended Meep. Still somewhat confused by some arguments, but, looking back, could just as easily be town mistakes as they could be scum moves. Also didn't change despite cop claim, and early Snow seems very townish (especially early Day2)... Ugh. The more I read, the more town this seems. Trying not to go by general feel of posts though, so...
Excal > Snow > Delta > others. And now I feel stupid for the fact that I keep changing my opinions on these last few. >.<
Main reasons for this order are that Excal's only been 'cleared' through the nature of his posts, whereas the others are cleared through actions - both Day1, Delta for pushing the MeepTrain further & Snow for not switching vote off copclaim despite being alive.
Now, to go back to some interesting quotes I found on my scan through...
1st Point:
Thus, I'm inclined to consider that if Xanth is scum then the early votes for him likely aren't; and vice versa.
Still following this, Cid? If so, it's a simple toss-up between Excal & Xanth, but I'm guessing a lot's changed.
2nd Point:
AndrewRogue: Not sure if I'm as against him as El Cid; yesterday was Saturday after all, and any player (scum or town) would probably have switched their vote if they'd been genuinely active. And EvilTom was already out of the woods as far as being lynched. The one notable exception to this scenario... a scumteam with Meeple/Andy/Excal. In that case, pretending inactivity and letting Ryogo get lynched would be in his interest (as swapping to Ryogo would look a bit odd).
Interesting to bring this up again, now that we know Andy -was- scum.
3rd Point:
Alright... There hasn't been a whole lot today that's done much except to cement my opinion that scums among Andy/Yoshi/Rat. And I'm now heavily leaning towards the first two.
Excal: Any reason you thought that me & Andy would both be scum, despite the fact that we both started the trains against each other?
4th Point:
Oh yeah, don't think I said this yet. Tom, if I am scum, then I deserve absolutely no kudos for surviving this far. Day 2 I did jack all to save myself, and Day 3 my grand strategy was to... do everything to bus my last remaining scum mate that I could possibly think of. Might be alright for personal survival, sure. But that's one hell of a losing strategy.
Yet you still voted for me? Seems like your strategy could have been to provide a good argument in case Andy did go, which would have seemingly been today - it was likely that one of us two was going yesterday. (Not saying this is strictly right, just that Excal's explanation isn't the only one.)
To conclude:
FoS: Excal.
I'm willing to hear him out, and I'm not voting yet on the basis that it would only take one more to lynch there.
That said, I think it'll take a hell of a lot to sway my opinion, and I'd personally prefer more logic I/we've missed on other players. With others on voting Excal now, Snow tomorrow if townExcal.
Also interested in this:
So, Cid. Would it have looked better if I had said screw living a second time and decided to stick with my guns?
Firstly, I'd say yes - especially in hindsight, but even at the time. Secondly, if it would look that bad to just give up, why do it the first time? One of these surrenders doesn't make sense, and I'm willing to lean towards the second one.
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Votecount:
Excal (2)- EvilTom, Cid
Snowfire (1)- Xanth
There are 24 hours left in Day Four.
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Explain what about my presentation is aggrivating, please. ... I am confident that I've done nothing but examine facts in a clinical fashion.
Huh, thanks. I wasn't quite sure what exactly it was that was bugging me, but I think that helped me cut to the core of it. If you want to know more I'd be glad to chat after game is over, but I think knowing exactly what's going on should help a lot in keeping it from inerfering with play.
Now, on to actually finding scum (yeah, I know there's cases on me, but most of them are now process of elimination against which the only defense is a good offense, Cid, who is using scum hunting as a scum tell, and Yoshi, who I will be glad to answer after I'm done with this.) Also, much as the meat of my last few posts of Day 3 were effectively written as Day 4 content, these are mostly going to be written for Day 5. If you want to listen early, I'd love it, but yeah.
Anyways, it seems that at this point everyone who's left has done their part to help hammer scum, or they're Tom.
Anyways, Tom has the benefit of a confirmed Townie saying he's good. So he's good.
Xanth not only has the Day 1 headache behind him, he also has the fact that he stepped in and tied Tom with the other two candidates.
Yoshi has the fact that he decided to take a risk on Andy instead of making the safe play of saving himself, that no one would even look at him funny for.
Delta has... pushed Meeple into the lead.
Cid has, he pushed Meeple into the lead, and was the tie-breaker for Andy.
And Snow has... that he didn't lynch Xanth when he had the chance. And that's about it.
So, let's start with the obvious, that Snow hasn't actually cleared himself. The main point in favour of Snowfire is that he didn't just try to avoid passing the buck, but that he was trying to find a third option. But here's the thing. If he's scum, then he knows Xanth is town, so why be seen as overly in favour of that. Also, he knows who Meeple is, and has a cop claim backing him up in that argument. Finally, as Cid said, Snow could simply have panicked and went for what seemed like the best idea. All said, he doesn't have anything backing him up.
As for the rest, it involves arguments of bussing. But, honestly, there's not a case of bussing on Andy that really makes sense for the first three. It would have been so much easier for any of them to have gotten a mislynch in that case, so why bus? Cid is the only one where a case makes sense as he might have worried that someone who'd vote Andy would return before Andy himself did and take the credit. Especially bad would have been if I showed up, as that would have shot down Andy and given me something solid.
As for Meeple, that lynch was less sudden, and the cop claim may have been planned, allowing for a bus there to be hoped to be countered with the cop claim. He gets off, but if something does go wrong, credit for the people on him. Of the people on Meeple, only Cid and Delta are left, so their claim to freedom isn't quite absolute, and of lesser quality than the Andy lynch.
So, this leaves us with Snow, Delta, and Cid as the ones without alibis, in ascending order of strength. So, let's look at them in descending order.
Honestly, my biggest thing against Cid is that he's been late onto all of the scum trains he's been on. He was the last vote for both Meeple and Andy, and ended Day 2 by trying to advocate a double lynch of town. That's all I've got on him at present, in large part because my time is short, and he's got a ton of posts. And partly because I'm currently leaning town for him. Scummiest of the people I'm seeing as town, but still town.
Delta comes next. And I'll be honest, I did read over all of his stuff, especially when I noticed that he was basically not here for Day 3. Then I noticed that after he showed up on Day 1 he was pretty prolific until the end of Day 2. And what he did have felt pretty strongly pro-town, so, yeah. I've actually got no issues with him aside from after the near lynch at the opening of Day 3, he just asked people not to lynch instead of actually retractig his vote.
Which leaves me with Snow.
The guy did next to nothing day 1 besides flail around a bit, talk game theory, and request an extension. Granted, he did give a valid excuse, but scum can have those as well. Did at least telegraph his Tom vote early though. Also joined the near quicklynch as the -1 vote, and claimed that it was in part because he was ninjaed, despite a warning and preview text. That, and his random Yoshi vote at the end. Though, honestly, in this scenario, it's a win/win scenario for him.
Sigh... hopefully this out lines my thoughts. Still not entirely confident with Snow, but he fits best. And I'm running low on time.
Yoshi, I'll get to you, but there's something else I'm doing at the same time that gets priority, so it may be a while.
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First off, schedule warning: there's an event after work tomorrow (drinks at the local bar to welcome a new arrival. Amusingly enough, I don't drink, but it'd look bad to not go.). I have no idea how long I'll be out, so it's possible that I'll miss the deadline tomorrow (short of an extension to possibly 9:00-10:00 or so). However I don't anticipate my vote will change that much, though...
##VOTE: Excal
The same reasons as on Day 3 stand. Meeple/Andy/Excal fits perfectly into the scenario B I mentioned and that El Cid quoted. And Yoshi's towniness has since risen after his vote for Andy.
Yoshiken: Interesting. We aren't actually certain there's even a cop involved, are we? Unless I've missed something major here.
Mafia without a cop is weird, since it becomes really hard to get reliable information to the town. Beats me what Sopko has set up - I guess it's possible to replace the cop with, say, a watcher which is also pretty good at sniffing out scum and then have fewer scum - but a detective is probably the rarest role to be without. Also some historical significance to it - the party game version has cop as its only (town) role and is pretty foundational. So no, I don't know for sure.
(Side note: I've played mafia games without a detective before where the clues were entirely in the "story" the GM posted every night. More like a group reading a mystery novel and having communal guessing as to who the killers were. Fun, since kinda sorta everyone is a detective, but also swingy since the clues need to be really subtle, as they can instantly end a killer's career if somebody picks up on a clue too well.)
El Cideon: So, Snowfire and Yoshi: please read in detail my opening post from this day. Alert me if you find any inconsistencies or oversights.
Your post seems fair enough, and more to the point I generally agree with the arguments against Excal from Day 3. The reason I switched was... well, logically Excal and Yoshi seemed similarly likely to be culpable, but Yoshi was setting off some alarming thoughts.
Xanth: I'm immediately worried. Lynch Excal and if he comes up town then Andy looks a lot better? Ouch ouch ouch ouch ouch.
Eh. Yoshiken brought that point up too, on Day 3. Obviously impossible to prove this, but no, that was meant as a situation in which Andy would be very likely to be scum (following El Cid's logic about Andy possibly lurking it up to avoid having to switch his vote on Day2 from EvilTom). With any luck Excal will flip scum and this theory - that Meeple/Andy/Excal is a logical scum combo - will be confirmed.
Also, Xanth... seems like we got lucky due to the dual kill anyway, but wasn't it horribly risky to use your vigilante ability? It seems common at Mafia games at the RPGDL to include a Godfather for the scum, and the Godfather is normally immune to nightkills.
Excal: The guy did next to nothing day 1 besides flail around a bit, talk game theory, and request an extension. Granted, he did give a valid excuse, but scum can have those as well.
Yes, well, been over it before, but remember that my main semi-substantive post was when the only things to talk about were A) jokevotes and B) The Andy/Meeple Delta train. So... I addressed B. This was followed by a post composed in the morning that was short due to time constraints, then returning for sudden death.
(Other side note: I'm thinking that I'm liking 36 hour Day 1s, which I've seen that some mafia game have used in the archives.)
I do have one crazy other theory I'm considering, but it probably is more relevant for Day 5, if there is a Day 5. Best to deal with the simpler possibilities first (Excal). In the off chance that I get killed the next night... it's possible that this is El Cid on the bravest gambit ever, as Excal was kind of getting at yesterday? I really really don't want to think that, but hmm. Won't bother looking into it since I really want to think that Excal should come up scum.
-
Excal is at -1 now I think.
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Ah screw it. I don't actually care anymore. Here's your flip, Cid.
##Unvote: Snowfire, ##Vote: Excal
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After another successful Stonecutter lynch, town immediately contacted America's Most Wanted to get their good friend Milhouse on the show once again.
Monty Burns financed it, Bart tipped them off. The last they saw of Milhouse was just before he ran out of town.
"But my Mom says I'm innocent!"
It wasn't too long until town had heard Milhouse had been cornered and thrown himself off a dam. This time though, he didn't survive.
Too bad for town. They should have listened to Milhouse's Mom.
Votecount:
Excal (4)- EvilTom, Cid, Snowfire, Excal
Snowfire (1)- Xanth
Excal AKA Milhouse Van Houten, VANILLA TOWN, was lynched!
Send in night actions!
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It was a quiet night. A dark one too. When the townspeople looked back the next day, only then could they recall the faint sound of a sucking pacifier.
A terrible tragedy was uncovered the next day. The body of poor Maggie Simpson, stuffed in a pet carry cage, buried alive in the mud flats near Springfield Harbor.
Xanth AKA Maggie Simpson, TOWN ONE-SHOT VIGILANTE, was killed overnight!
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Day Five ends in 48 hours.
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Well I was wrong. Maybe Xanth was right. ##Vote Snow
Mass roleclaim time?
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Indeed it is not Magaggie's birthday. Sadness.
So, Xanth and everyone on his train (sans Meeple) were indeed town. Whatever happened day one, it looks like scum seriously dropped the ball. (I am of course obligated to note that this game has provided an impressive amount of trainwrecking on both sides.)
I'm going to take Tom up on his request for mass claiming. Even if we mislynch again today, we'll still have a chance tomorrow to get things right. Better to have roleclaims out of the way now than tomorrow, when a BS claim from scum could potentially work in their favor (if someone lies about a claim today, we at least have more opportunity to catch them on it). So: C. Montgomery Burns, vanilla townie, checking in. Shocking revelation, I know. Also agreed that Snowfire looks like the most likely candidate here, but going to review everyone as always. Onwards:
Tom: Cleared by Alex, yada yada yada, we've been over this before. It's not impossible for a serious act of bastard modding to make twin masons have different alignments, but I don't believe that Alex would've vouched for Tom's alignment if he weren't specifically told in his role PM that Tom was also town. So yeah, not considering Tom, as usual.
Yoshi: Given Yoshi's level of activity since joining, Strago's low presence/contribution looks very much like just a result of his time crunch. Really don't think that should be held against Yoshi any more. I'm seriously inclined to consider him fully cleared by this point. His day 3 actions make no sense otherwise, because it would mean that he stuck with a vote for a scumbuddy (Andy), even when it looked like he himself was about to be killed, instead of making a perfectly excusable move to a townie (Excal). If this was a gambit to give Andy townie cred by burning Yoshi then I'm impressed and he deserves to win. I seriously doubt that's the case, though.
Snowfire: Scum!Snowfire has typically just left me baffled as to why he wouldn't hammer Xanth day one. He had plenty of reason and opportunity to do so without looking suspicious. I should probably listen to my own advice about scum fallibility, though. Something clearly went catastrophically wrong on the scum team that day. I've been inclined to attribute a number of Snow's slips to the errors of a newbie not used to playing mafia on a message board--overlooking Bard's post day one, for example, and not taking the time to read ninjaposts before voting on Excal day three. I'm no longer certain this is the case. He's only voted for townies throughout the entire game, being notably absent from criticism of both Meeple and Andy. He paid lip service to the growing case on Andy day three but did little to contribute to it. And it's entirely possible that he simply refrained from hammering Xanth day one because Alex had expressed a willingness to do it himself and Snow was more than glad to let a townie do the job of hammering another townie--which would've happened if it weren't for Rat's overlooked vote.
Delta: Starting to take another look at him, if in part out of necessity. Doing so gets me tangled up in WIFOM, though, as I just can't figure out what in god's name scum was doing day 1 if he was one of them. If anyone has anything substantial on him, please let me know, but I've had trouble finding anything myself.
Not putting a vote down just yet even though Snowfire is the obvious option. I know, we're not in LYLO just yet, and that anyone pulling a surprise hammer today would look horrible and get killed tomorrow, but paranoia is kicking into high gear.
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Votecount:
Snowfire (1): EvilTom
There are 42 hours left in Day 5.
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Well, it looks bad for our hero. I know that my little twerp StragoYoshiKenBart thinks he's the star, but he's got another thing coming when/if I leave the stage. Reality will come crashing down, along with ratings. You were warned!
--
Okay. The only good defense for a townie is actual scumhunting himself. Since there was a call for roleclaims, I, Homer Simpson, am... not a vanilla townie. But I am a townie. Don't really want to go much further into it (though... my role fits fairly well with one episode in particular of the show. Which is probably completely useless since Homer's had a lot of things happen to him.).
Tom is completely cleared. This leaves El Cid and Yoshi on insane crazy gambits, and Delta... gambiting on Day 1, at least.
For me... meh. I can't deny that, if nothing else, the main alternatives to my lynch have scored large amounts of town credit by helping lynch Andy faster. (On Day 3, I would have been in favor of lynching Yoshi first, then Excal, then Andy, in that order.) And El Cid is correct that my votes have ended up being for townies, with the main thing to my credit being votes I didn't cast for different townies. So like Excal, I can't really deny that I'm not a good lynch target, though I'd be an incorrect one.
I... I don't have anything on Delta either. If Delta's scum, he's been playing a strange but possibly effective game? He wasn't on the Andy train. But he hasn't made tons of posts either. Really hard to get a read on him.
As for Yoshi... hmm. Could be that he tossed the vote on Andy just to have something to crow about for when Andy inevitably died later, but he actively whipped up a train, too. And didn't switch his own vote to Excal. I just find this really hard to believe.
And lastly, El Cid. If El Cid is scum then, well, obviously he was a little too effective in places, but he got his general goal: to lead the town around. I'm hesitant to attack people for being "too towny" since this normally leads to mislynches, but man. Extreme chutzpah just might be rewarded with a victory... after hammering his scumfriend, who on earth is going to accuse him? He'd even set it up to not look bad before by making it clear that Andy was his #2 target. This is wandering way off into WIFOM territory, but since clearly somebody here is still scum... could be a "so crazy it just might work" deal. It's more believable than Yoshi, at least, as El Cid cast the deciding vote once an Andy train already existed - I personally see that as more suspicious, as I can see scum thinking "Andy will likely die soon anyway, hopping aboard an already existing scum train might get credit." Yoshi started one from nowhere.
I'm confused. I've put out my thoughts, but I can't say with any certainty who is scum. At worst Delta is neutral, and everyone else reads positively towny. Delta > El Cid > Yoshi >> Tom, tentatively.
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*sigh* Well, that was... frustrating. This last scum is really taking us for a ride here, so whoever it is, congrats on being confusing as hell. >.<
At this stage, I'm going to say that I'm no longer claiming certainty on anyone being town other than myself & Tom.
Cid... Still almost certainly town, although for an extra reason now (although it's almost entirely WIFOM surrounding Excal. I'll not go into that unless people actually want me to.)
Snow... Yes, Day1 is still suspicious. And since then... Yes, the vote problem. Yes, the occasional flawed argument problem. In fact, the lack of Xanth-hammer is about the only thing going for him, and all logic seems to say that I should vote here, especially after neglecting to role-claim in a situation that's quite clearly going against him. (Also, I know it's not what you're hinting at, but should I point out that Homer was once a Stonecutter? =P)
...But, for all that I said I'd ignore instinct, I'm -still- unable to shake my doubts with Delta. Part of it may be because he's been wa~ay too quiet throughout, but, that said, the only things he's got going for him are Day1. Not only that, but one of those two points is that he was voted for by Andy & Meep - both early Day1, and both meaningless in the long run, except for giving him town-credit.
With all that said, I'm gonna say a few last things. Firstly, to Snow:
I -strongly- suggest you roleclaim. If we make a mistake in lynching tonight, we're into LyLo. And, even if you suddenly claim cop or something, I get the feeling people are gonna doubt it if town go tonight.
As things stand, FoS: Delta.
Delta has way too much to answer as things stand, and hasn't even given much of a reason for constant absences. Delta! I'm hoping we can see that post on your thoughts of the last day or two, because I'm failing to see much since you said "It is between Excal and Yoshi for me. One of you, convince me." You hinted towards switching to Andy after that, but only after things had built up in SD, and then... disappeared. Also wondering: what happened there, exactly? (This is end of Day3, by the way.)
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Snowfire: I don't see any reason to make a partial claim at this point in time. You've already suggested that you're not vanilla and this alone makes you a tempting NK target for the remaining scum player (if it isn't you). I don't see any good reason to hold off on a full claim...unless perhaps you're waiting for Delta's claim to make sure he has no way to contradict your own. It alarms me to consider that you might be putting off your full claim in order to tailor it to fit whatever Delta might say.
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Yoshi: I'm sure you can think of some roles which make no sense at all to reveal, giving the scum useful info and not really helping the town. For example (because it's false in my case).... a Bomb that kills people who nightkill me. (Assume it's not the type that kill a lyncher as well). If scum would blow up on killing me, well, great, let 'em. (Though I'm not a bomb.) It's something along those lines.
I too am interested in what Delta has to say.
Ninja'd by El Cid: Lovely. On second thought, I think I will respond, since a scum dumb enough to NK me (assuming I survive tonight, and the scum isn't lynched) is, well, dumb, since I'd be a huge lynching target tomorrow as well. I'm Bulletproof - it's the Homer Simpson effect. Go ahead, take a surgical 2x4 and give me a whack with it. Homer is hard to kill (the only reason he's still alive, really).
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Had something written up where I actually decided to vote Snowfire based on the partial roleclaim (paranoia be damned, anyone surprise hammering today is clearly scum and will get killed tomorrow, etcetera), then Snowfire ninjas me. Great.
Snowfire: If there was even a possibility of you being a cop or a watcher, scum might want to nightkill you rather than take the risk of being found out overnight and outed tomorrow. Even if it means sacrificing a potential mislynch, even if you roleclaiming on LYLO would be a dubious proposition in and of itself. (Of course, now I've made it so that they don't have to worry about that possibility at all. Well, that was brilliant.)
Not sure what else to say right now, other than that I feel like an idiot for not considering the below notion earlier. It just made more sense for scum to have been on Xanth's train day one, but this is now obviously wrong.
And it's entirely possible that he simply refrained from hammering Xanth day one because Alex had expressed a willingness to do it himself and Snow was more than glad to let a townie do the job of hammering another townie--which would've happened if it weren't for Rat's overlooked vote.
Delta needs to talk, need everyone's perspective before moving, etcetera and so on. Blah, it's been said.
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##Vote extension
I want Delta to talk and claim so I can hear Snow's claim. If Delta lurks, I want the time to lynch him first. I think an extension might be in order.
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Eh, Tom? Snowfire just did claim. Post right above my last one.
Anyway, extension? Hm, maybe. Will consider it more seriously if Delta's still not present tomorrow.
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Oops, missed that somehow. Eh, I'll leave my extension vote there anyway. Bulletproof huh, interesting.
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Snowfire, do you think that there is going to be two bulletproofs in town with such a small setup as this? I am Apu, Bulletproof town.
Explainations of absences.
End of Day three, I was typing my post, but was called down to dinner, without having time to finish it, coming back, I typed the rest of it up, only to be ninja'd by El Cid's hammer. So, of course, I didn't reply because it was hammer.
Day four, Well, yesterday was probably the most important day of my life. No kidding. Year 9 options evening was yesterday, and for the English amongst you here, if there is any, they know what it's like. It affects my entire future life, so yes, I did forego mafia yesterday, forgetting to inform you on my schedule. Apologies once again.
Scum Cid, I can only see if he hadnt been on the trains of the two dead scummies. However, seeing as he has been, I say this effectively clears him, for the time being.
Snowfire, looks suspicious to me since he has claimed bulletproof also, and in this smaller game, I simply cannot see two bulletproof townies, being one myself.
ET, looks good. Effectively cleared by Alex.
Yoshi, looks better than snow to me. I was hinting at an Alex hammer, and I was actually writingthe post in which I was going to hammer him, when I was called down for dinner. >.< Sucky reason I know, but I don't like it any more than you guys do.
I am still mildly miffed from when Xanth put us in three-way sudden death, since it didn't particularly make town's job easier, I suppose that it is all in the past now, but still annoys me. Excal's self-hammer too.
Anyway, that is my little analyisis for now. Feeling sick, so more after school, or maybe earlier depending on how I feel. Damned flu.
Oh thank you, come again!
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Votecount:
Snowfire (1): EvilTom
There are 25 hours left in Day 5.
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Two bulletproof town is unlikely. I'm sticking with my vote on Snow.
Delta, if you're confident in y our theory, will you be voting for Snow?
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It's not impossible that there are two bulletproof townies here, as the role setup has already proven itself to be a little wacky. It is unlikely, though. So yeah, this sounds good:
##Vote: Snowfire
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I think that it is our best option right now.
Sorry Snow.
##Vote: Snowfire
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The town turned as one towards it's most recognizable resident. Bart, for all his devilishness, had been trying to point the finger at his father the whole time. But do you really want to believe the "I Didn't Do It" boy? But finally, they stood up and take notice.
Both Apu and Homer claimed to be utterly bulletproof. Apu had simply to open his shirt and reveal his chest. A lesser man would have died from all those bullet wounds. Homer, for his part, produced a surgical 2x4 to have people wail on him with. To their credit, they both turned out to be telling the truth... so what was it?
That was when Bart produced the most damning piece of evidence: Homer's Stonecutter robes! Of course! It was so simple! The one trying to put the Stonecutters back together was none other than the Chosen One himself! Well, if he wanted to be a Stonecutter so bad, he'll die a Stonecutter.
They summarily attached the Stone of Shame to Homer's ankle and threw him into Springfield Gorge. Normally Homer would survive this, but he also normally doesn't have a one-ton boulder attached to his ankle to finish him off.
They all live happily ever after... until the next episode when everything went back to normal.
Votecount:
Snowfire (3): EvilTom, Cid, Delta
Snowfire AKA Homer Simpson, SCUM GODFATHER, was lynched!
TOWN WINS
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Wooo. Just as sort-of-planned.
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... Well! Andy, Snow and Meeple, then.
I was off the mark, I was sure it was Cid. Admittedly I stopped paying attention to this after my demise, but eh.
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This is where I celebrate not singlehandedly dooming town. Go me.
Very curious to hear the scum team's version of what happened day one.
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Well, it went around in circles a few times, but we got there in the end... Eventually. =P
I was in the middle of writing a long post before Delta voted, but that was essentially saying we couldn't lose after the double Bulletproof claim.
I'm interested in knowing if the Godfather had any role powers aside from being bulletproof - because, otherwise, we had only one shot and two Bulletproofs, which strikes me as a bit odd. =P
Waiting for Sopko's role PM post to check this~
I'm quite happy to have found Andy - it was a gambit and a half for me to try getting the votes switched last minute, but I'm glad it paid off. =P
And... well, this was definitely fun for my first Mafia game ever. Hopefully, I won't be so incompetent in the next one. XD
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I messed up in Succinct mafia, and accidentally gave scum the win. This is a little payback. My first game that I have lived to the end and won. Woo.
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... Well! Andy, Snow and Meeple, then.
I was off the mark, I was sure it was Cid.
Anonymafia is going to haunt me forever, isn't it?
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The Setup:
SCUM
Homer Simpson, SCUM GODFATHER
Chief Clancy Wiggum, SCUM ROLECOP
Groundskeeper Willie, VANILLA SCUM
TOWN
Maggie Simpson, TOWN ONE-SHOT VIGILANTE
Apu Nahasapeemapetalon, BULLETPROOF TOWN
Leonard Leonardson, TOWN LIMITED MASON
Carl Carlson, TOWN LIMITED MASON
C. Montgomery Burns, VANILLA TOWN.
Bart Simpson, VANILLA TOWN.
Dr. Julius Hibbert, VANILLA TOWN
Dr. Nick Riviera, VANILLA TOWN
Principal Seymour Skinner, VANILLA TOWN
Milhouse Van Houten, VANILLA TOWN
I promised a non-rolemadness game. Non-standard setup, though! Lots of vanilla. Some mindgames planted in their concerning roles and flavor. Roles were more or less appropriate to characters... for some. Originally I had Lenny and Carl having to find each other, but I nixed that when I realized I forgot a mass roleclaim would eliminate that part, so I just started them off being able to talk to each other. Same with Wiggum. He was going to be a Slow Cop that found out stuff in the order of Flavor -> Role.
It's slightly pro-town, but fair. Scum got unlucky having Meeple lynched day one, and also having the Vigilante target the same person that the nightkill was. Granted, better than scum's original target that night, the Bulletproof townie.
All in all a good game. Some hilarity in there, but overall decent. I had Superintendant Chalmers and Lisa in there as vanilla scum and town in case we got to 15. Also played with the idea of making Bart a Watcher, but decided against it.
I'll post the role PMs later.
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I'm interested in knowing if the Godfather had any role powers aside from being bulletproof - because, otherwise, we had only one shot and two Bulletproofs, which strikes me as a bit odd. =P
Nope. Just the normal Godfather powers. It was mostly in there for the Bulletproof and to make scum think that there would be a cop. This made the Vig's job of tagging scum a lot harder, since only 2 out of the 3 were hittable targets.
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I was almost dying to tell you guys that I was bulletproof, but in the end, it seems to have worked to town's advantage for me to keep it under wraps.
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SuperNINTENDO Chalmers. Also, little disappointed I never got an excuse to yell NOT LENNY.
Anyway, last mafia game I'll be playing for a long while. Pretty clearly not something I should get involved in while unemployed, as I've been rather scarily obsessive over the past week or so (as various non-players can attest to since I've had a tendency to corner people in IRC PM and bitch about how town wasn't listening to me, none of which conversations do me any favors in retrospect). Can only hope Excal didn't take anything personally; suspect he was fairly pissed by the end just on account of how many of his own arguments he contradicted in his last big post.
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Whooo town! Good game all around. Thanks to everyone.
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Excal:
(http://i520.photobucket.com/albums/w330/SaimoeArchive/ZZOther/BelieveYomi.jpg)
I tried my best for you, man. I really did.
I am still mildly miffed from when Xanth put us in three-way sudden death, since it didn't particularly make town's job easier, I suppose that it is all in the past now, but still annoys me. Excal's self-hammer too.
Best thing I was involved with in that game, dude. It turned a town versus town race into a scum lynch. Come on.
Snow: re: godfather bulletproofing: traditionally whichever scum goes on the kill loses their powers for that night. When you're down to one scum there's nothing to worry about being roleblocked or getting a bad cop reading or the like. I guess godfather might retain bulletproof anyway depending on the reading, but I certainly fired it off without expecting as much.
And yeah, Cid's push for Excal after Andy died effectively cleared him, as I'd have been distraught if the final scum would have done that.
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Xanth: Is that from Ga-Rei Zero?
Cid: TRUST ME. I wanted to do that SO BADLY. I had to stop myself over and over from trying to suggest to scum that they kill Tom.
I'm also disappointed that Xanth didn't shoot Cid.
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I'm still kind of surprised they didn't do it night 3, him being confirmed townie and all. I guess Snowfire thought Rat was hiding a power role or something? Or just that he assumed there'd be a doc sitting on Tom. That seems more likely.
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... Well! Andy, Snow and Meeple, then.
I was off the mark, I was sure it was Cid.
Anonymafia is going to haunt me forever, isn't it?
No, I just found it eerie you kept agreeing with me.
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Good game. Sorry I had to drop out; last week was a real shit show. Props to Yoshiken for aptly carrying the Bartman's mantle and getting everyone over how non-present I'd had to be at the game's outset.
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... Well! Andy, Snow and Meeple, then.
I was off the mark, I was sure it was Cid.
Anonymafia is going to haunt me forever, isn't it?
No, I just found it eerie you kept agreeing with me.
Well, you kept being right!
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... Well! Andy, Snow and Meeple, then.
I was off the mark, I was sure it was Cid.
Anonymafia is going to haunt me forever, isn't it?
No, I just found it eerie you kept agreeing with me.
Well, you kept being right!
I found it so beflabbergasting that you thought I was right I was sure you were scum trying to paint me into a scumbuddy. D:
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So. Comments? Was the set-up good? Can I be trusted to run a game again?
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Major WIFOM there, Bard. Bad!
Soppy: yeah, the setup was fine. It's good to have things confound player expectations sometimes (in regards to what specific roles they assume will be there, I mean). I laughed my ass off day two when I realized what Alex/Tom's roles probably were. (I'm guessing scum thought Alex was a cop?)
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Nah, nothing personal, Cid. Just, you were giving me old Alex vibes with the relentlessness and that odd "I'm using logic, how can I be wrong!?" thing he had. There's just something about expecting players in a social game to be relentlessly logical while they are human instead of Vulcan that just doesn't compute in my head. Regardless, I had a pretty good feeling you wouldn't really chase after anyone else while I was alive, and I a) wasn't having all that much fun, and b) was going to be somewhat busy and therefore not much help, so I figured the self hammer would let you be more useful undistracted than the two of us distracted would be.
Hmmm... Star Trek Mafia?
Anyways, good game all. And glad to see town won.
PS: Yoshi, one of your quotes against me day 4? The one where you asked why you were a suspect for me despite starting the Andi train? At the time of that quote, you hadn't started the train yet.
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PS: Yoshi, one of your quotes against me day 4? The one where you asked why you were a suspect for me despite starting the Andi train? At the time of that quote, you hadn't started the train yet.
Wow, failed to notice that. I'm assuming that's the one where you said me/Andy as remaining scum?
Hmm, same logic still applies, methinks - Andy had (presumably) already started the train against me, I'm guessing. (I can't actually find the post you said that in now, but I'm also not looking too hard any more, now that the game's finished. =P)
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I know that my little twerp StragoYoshiKenBart thinks he's the star, but he's got another thing coming when/if I leave the stage. Reality will come crashing down, along with ratings. You were warned!
Don't say you weren't warned! You (sorta) killed me, and look, it's all over! Burns, you could finally have moved up in the ranks and become Number 2, and you threw it all away.
Also I'm surprised you all fell for the Maggie doll that I buried in the mud flats next to the big sign saying "dig here for body." Obviously wouldn't kill my own daughter! She was just grounded until she's 13 or so. Out after her bedtime helping daddy kill the principal? I'm flattered she wants to take after her dad and run around killing people, but Marge insisted that there be SOME punishment for that kind of behavior, so she's not leaving her room for awhile.
Pretty fun game all in all (with one exception), even if a bunch of extreme longshots somehow managed to misfire. I hope that Andy isn't mad. I should preface this retrospective first with a bit of Mafia philosophy: the goal is to win the game, not survive the longest. It's easy to apply when you're town - if you're a cop, reveal your data at some point even if you'll die for sure the next night - but somewhat trickier as Mafia. As the Godfather, I figured it was likely I'd be one of the last scum standing. There's no point in surviving until the last 3 / last 5 and then getting voted down there; to survive the final showdown, the mafia needs two things to happen: the cop should be dead, and you should be squeaky-clean. Like, not just "not under suspicion," but "actively towny." As a result, I resolved to basically play a straight-up town game, possibly with the only difference being steering suspicion away from my scumbuddies at opportune times. (Nothing new in this, I'm sure.) So... a short-term play for a scumfriend's survival makes no sense. It might save them for one round, but I wanted to have an impeccable record of opposing townie lynches and (eventually) supporting scum lynches to make me less likely to be lynched at the end.
Well, that was the plan, at least.
Okay.
Day 1: Okay, this is the one exception mentioned above. I had no idea that a mere one-hour extension request would get turned down. The scheduling ended up being profoundly bad here, as I missed the entire second half of Day 1. If Day 1 had been 72 hours (like apparently will be true for Pokemon mafia), it wouldn't have been so bad, but I ended up only contributing on the mostly worthless first half. And I was unable to affect the situation until we were in SD. General maintenance request for future GMs: Yes, scheduling is important and all, but.... this kind of thing should be avoided.
Of course, the biggest change in hypothetical better-for-scum Day 1 wasn't actually my play, but Meeple's. In retrospect, the fake copclaim needed to be earlier (or at the same time with the extension). The extension would have given us time for Carthrat to switch his vote (which happened before 7:00), but so would copclaiming earlier, I suppose. I probably would have been willing to jump on the anti-Xanth train as well if we'd wanted to avoid having to fake copclaim, but there was no time.
As for my play? Well the Bardiche mistake was a legitimate, SnowFire mistake. I'm not sure why El Cid and some others thought things like accidentally voting Bardiche was scummy (the lurker-hunting idea in general, perhaps), especially when I instantly reversed myself. I dunno, I don't really see comments like that can even potentially be part of some DARK SCUM PLOT. That was me being blind. (Same with failing to notice Delta's vote against Excal on Day 3, too.)
Why didn't I hammer Xanth? Meeple had already copclaimed and Xanth had already fallen on his sword, with Alex offering to hammer. Somebody hammering a copclaim? What are the odds of that? What could possibly go wrong?
Oh.
That.
(Tough rules call, I admit. Really no good answers for that one. Though I'd have picked the "retroactively grant an extension not in sudden death anymore" one, obviously, which is why I was trying to switch the lynch at all.)
It wasn't a total disaster since neither Andrew nor I were on the Xanth train and we got some minor cred for that, but argh. I will say that my response ended up being the same as Townie SF - I really wouldn't have bought the anti-Xanth case as a townie, so to thine own heart be true.
Also, Xanth's reluctance to roleclaim told me at least that he had a role he couldn't reveal for some reason. The biggest of these would be Miller and Bulletproof. Either way, I wanted to leave Xanth alive, so he dropped way down on the "to kill" list. (In retrospect it makes total sense that Xanth would want to save that ability, too.)
Another comment: a bit of a metagaming, but I was expecting far higher roles than there were. My original PM said Meeple was vanilla, then in IRC Sopko mentioned how he used to be a slowcop but got upgraded to a rolecop. I figured that there had to be, at the very least, a cop or a doctor. Maybe both.
Bardiche was first on the Meeple train and was being complimented by people, and we didn't really have any read on where power roles might be.
Day 2:
Things went better today. I was pleasantly surprised that Alex and Xanth nearly called me confirmed townie. And... better to find out about the masons sooner rather than later. Unfortunate that Andy didn't return in time to recast his vote and thus look townier, but I can guarantee that this was a coincidental issue - he did make it back, but mentioned to scumchat that he was completely zonked from the day.
Also, I suppose it would have been better for scum for a dual Excal lynch - Ryogo modkill, but meh to modkills, so I'm glad things happened as they did.
Why kill Sir Alex? El Cid was somewhat on point when he thought that a newbie might have taken Alex to be a weak copclaim. It's not quite that - both Andy and I thought he was a mason - but it didn't matter. I had no confidence in making a case against the Alex / Tom combination (i.e. they're mafia pretending to be masons) and figured it was likely for the cop to investigate them if we left them alive. So we had to kill one of them off, and Alex was potentially the cop trying to slide under the radar as a mason. Best to play it safe.
Day 3:
First off, very nice work Yoshi. I realized as soon as I wrote the Andy piece that I'd been a bit too defensive of him, and you hit on that well. Picked up what was going on completely. Then for some reason people started suspecting you for the same reason people suspected me on Day 1- meaningless minor mistakes. I... wouldn't have bought that at all as a townie (hence my excuse of "gut" to vote you.)
But what a late-day disaster for scum. Partially my fault, I will admit. I framed the discussion fairly well, I thought - the logic that El Cid hit on made sense. Xanth thought that one of Yoshi or Andy was scum, so I initially favored an Excal lynch at first to drag things out. However I got greedy in the morning as I saw the Yoshi lynch gain steam. Excal had already claimed vanilla, but I had no read on Yoshi's roleiness. If I pushed Yoshi's lynch, he might feel obligated to roleclaim, even if Excal eventually died. It was 4-3 Yoshi-Excal when I left, with Yoshi yet to cast a vote - so 4-4. What could go wrong?
Amusingly enough, I actually was back for a bit around noon when I saw things moving toward sudden death. I had returned because I figured that either Excal or Yoshiken would be dead, and I would confirm who looked the most cop-like as to kill in the night. And... things still looked okay! Yoshiken, citing self-preservation, could have hammered Excal. Instead he boldly stuck to his guns. Wow. Andy needed to get back, hammer Excal, then be lynched the next day (well, really shot by Xanth (?), but I didn't know that)... but he didn't make it back in time. And if I stepped forward to confirm Yoshi's theory by "protecting" Andy and hammering a townie.... yeah that would get me killed in the later rounds after Andy flipped. So many things could have lynched someone else - but ack. And Yoshi instantly nigh-proves himself a townie, too.
The plan had been that I'd turn on Andy to prove my towniness either Day 4, or, if people were more pro-Andy, Day 5. Then coast on that. Well... there goes that, as Yoshi / Xanth / El Cid collect the credit.
Why'd I ax Carthrat? Yeah, hunting for power roles, pretty much. The worst possible case is the cop revealing himself and saying "J'accuse, lynch one of us and see the flip!," and letting that happen would be suicide. Alternatively there was a doc sitting on Tom. Alternatively both of these were true. So yeah. I almost shot Deltaflyer because Carthrat had spoken up in favor of Andy, but Andy just got lynched, so I suppose that wasn't an issue anymore. And... at this point, I was absolutely certain El Cid was vanilla, so that left only Delta & Carth of unknown role.
Day 4:
Collect Excal lynch, curse my bad luck, prepare for the bitter end. Still, my other shot target would have been Delta, so it's not like the dual kill was that bad. And it was cute, at least!
Xanth needed to die for catching on to my game, and the fact that he was possibly lying about having only one shot. He was about as cleared as Tom after he revealed his breadcrumbs anyway. And no, I wasn't bulletproof when doing a nightkill, so you could have shot me toward the end, I believe.
Day 5
Pull an Excal's Day 4, because that's the townie thing to do, hope that people freak out and have bad vibes or something. Good on town for discipline to ignore that, plus eventually putting the pieces together that Day 1 wasn't nearly as Day1y as it looked.
Had we lynched Delta... I'd have shot Tom, of course (now knowing there were no docs), and prayed Yoshi bought my "El Cid is an evil genius" theory. Which likely would have worked, actually, had it been true, so somebody should definitely try that sometime and actively lynch all their buddies.
Well, that's my story at least. Good game; events like Day 1 and Day 3's finale are pretty darn rare, so it's fun to see how they turn out.
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And oh yes. You're darn lucky you didn't use the catapult; as noted in the flavor text, Homer likely would have survived it. My Plan B was likely to call up Hank Scorpio again and see if I could help out with the whole conquest of the East Coast thing. And Yoshi, you were absolutely correct about the actual episode I was referring to about how "my role is that from a particular episode." Yes, the Stonecutters one.
One more obligatory comment, since I'd carefully avoided using it before:
DOH!!!!!!!!!!! (http://www.gamerevolution.com/images/misc/image/arkanoid-doh.jpg)
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Bardiche was first on the Meeple train and was being complimented by people, and we didn't really have any read on where power roles might be.
OH, SO BECAUSE I GOT COMPLIMENTS I GOT KILLED.
you were just jealous you jerk :( :( :(
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Nah you got killed because you didn't beg for mercy from the Stonecutters. All you had to do was say "I may be a town, but I don't want to be! Spare me, unknown masters! I exist to do your bidding." We'd have left you right alone! (Because then the town would have lynched you, not us.)
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I'm just glad I actually got to be a Day 1 target again for once. Makes you feel dangerous and threatening, and considering I was on the Meeple train before it got cool I can actually say I started the train!
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I messed up in Succinct mafia, and accidentally gave scum the win. This is a little payback. My first game that I have lived to the end and won. Woo.
Nice work Delta, you've improved a lot. I only thought you might be scum once, http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52705#msg52705 because you looked like you were just following Andrew around (who I thought was scummy).
Bard, you got killed well cos you were the uberday1 towny XD I believe I'm somewhat responsible for acknowledging your skills.
Me + Alex is a scary combination; I got to go all Aggro explosion on people, and didn't get mislynched. My Xanth attack was very useful, as it brought Andy out of the woodwork when he tried to egg it on, it was at that point that he went from Lurker to Scum. I felt bad after it got Alex killed, but I reckon I made up for it by turning the Yoshi/Excal lynch into an Andy lynch. Yeah Yoshi, that was excellent play at the end there, bringing it from 4/4 mislynch to a scumlynch.
Rat, you really didn't seem into this game. I thought you were either scum lurker or town power-role :\
Cid played solid town.
Snow, I was suspicious of you for ages, I'm surprised you let me live.
Oh yeah, the day 1 stuff was weird, but it went well for town and Soppy did the right thing. Hammer is hammer.
GG
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Well if I was a Doc, I'd have had my protection parked on you the later nights, EvilTom (okay, maybe switch to Alex on Day 2). And there was no hurry on offing you; might as well fish for power first.
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Had we lynched Delta... I'd have shot Tom, of course (now knowing there were no docs), and prayed Yoshi bought my "El Cid is an evil genius" theory. Which likely would have worked, actually, had it been true, so somebody should definitely try that sometime and actively lynch all their buddies.
It's happened. If you have time to spare, go back and read Clue mafia. As much as I (as town) prefer to entertain simple explanations over crazy gambit theories, the latter has actually been used before.
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A combination of bad sleeping habits and hilarious timing were reasons behind when I posted when I did.
I have a lot of time trusting my intuition at this game lately, and for once I felt like not really being as aggressive as usual. Eh.
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Hmm... I guess the scum actions make sense, looking at it from that side of things...
Although, I'm still quite surprised that so many role assumptions were made. To assume a Cop & Doctor would automatically be present... I dunno, I guess I just prefer to rely solely on confirmation instead.
If I'm entirely honest, had Delta been lynched instead of Snow and then the "Cid is a very clever scum" argument had come up... I'd've probably bought it. In hindsight, it seems like it took me a while to get into the game, Day3 was perfect for me (despite near-death, that end-day gambit made it all worthwhile) and then it went back down from there. :P
Wow, I was only joking about the Stonecutters role. XD I didn't think you'd actually directly refer to yourself being scum. :P And I almost questioned you on the ratings quote, wondering if it was more than just a simple joke... Guess that would've been sort of right as well. XD
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Soppy: Yessir, it is indeed the delightful Yomi. And yes, the game looked fine to me, with the only unbalancing thing being Rat's missed vote on day one, which I don't think anyone would blame you for, as frustrating for scum as it turned out to be. I do get the feeling it would have been annoying to be scum from how the madness played out, but that was way beyond your realm of control.
Yoshi: As hard as you're being on yourself, you did settle on Andy/Snow a lot sooner than the rest of us. I think you did a good enough job of it all, green errors aside. The timing at the end of day three was ridiculously sweet.
Bardiche: sorry man, you did just do a really good job for day one. I guess you'll just have to try sucking more next time, right?
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From how it played out this game, you're right. If town doesn't hit scum early though it can reverse. But that can be said about most setups. It's always pretty devestating to lose a scum member day 1.
About Day 1... I was surprised that Snowfire's rogue vote during Sudden Death wasn't looked at with more suspicion. Moreover, I'm surprised people considered him pretty townish because of it. Now, I don't mean because he didn't hammer the townie. I understand that and it would make sense if he had just done nothing. But the fact that given a choice between only Meeple and Xanth he votes Tom... what? Maybe it doesn't automatically damn him, but no one really pressed him on it. That's odd to the max. Even if he WAS town he kinda should be called on to explain that one. But this may be because I know the setup...
Yoshi: Yes. You need to trust your instincts more. Good job, overall.
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Role PMs-
Homer- Snowfire
You are Homer Simpson, SCUM GODFATHER!
As the former leader of the Stonecutters, you couldn’t bear the loss of that power any longer. So you got as much of the old gang back together as you could to convert the masses back to the light of drinking, songs, drinking and ribs! Fortunately, being Homer Simpson you have two things going for you. No one suspects you of being able to commit such crimes (let’s face it, you can’t even say the word titmouse without giggling like a schoolgirl). You also suffer from Homer Simpson Syndrome, which makes you invulnerable to nightkills.
You have made an alliance with Chief Wiggum (Meeple), and Groundskeeper Willie (Andy), Vanilla Scum.
Wiggum- Meeple
You are Chief Clancy Wiggum, SCUM SLOW COP!
The pride of the Springfield Police Department, you yearn for the old days in the Stonecutters, so you joined in the new Stonecutters’ not quite thought out quest to reestablish this glorious organization. However, as the Sherry Bobbins song goes, fighting crime is not your cup of tea. Therefore, it takes you a little longer to figure out the dirt on the townsmen. You get the information in the order of Flavor, then Role.
Your glorious lord and master is Homer Simpson (Snowfire), Scum Godfather. Your ally is Groundskeeper Willie (Andy), Vanilla Scum.
Willie- Andy
You are Groundskeeper Willie, VANILLA SCUM!
Bless your Scottish heart, you are extremely susceptible to brainwashing. The Leader was the last one to get ya, but the new Stonecutters are the latest game in town and you had to get in on it. Unfortunately for you, you are out of tape for recording the townspeople, leaving you as just a vanilla scum.
Your glorious lord and master is Homer Simpson (Snowfire), Scum Godfather. Your ally is Chief Wiggum (Meeple), Scum Slow Cop.
Maggie- Xanth
You are Maggie Simpson, TOWN ONE SHOT VIGILANTE!
With the incident with Mr. Burns, you’ve already proven yourself to be capable of murder, and no jury in the world will convict a baby! Luckily, you’re not in Texas. You’ve always been sharper than people give you credit for, and since you’ve heard of the Stonecutters’ new reign of terror, you’ve decided to protect yourself and your family. Being a baby, you could only afford one bullet though. Use it wisely.
You win with town.
Lenny- EvilTom
You are Leonard Leonardson (Lenny), TOWN LIMITED MASON!
While a former member of the Stonecutters, you swore off their ways when it became clear that the Chosen One was leading you down the wrong path. With the resurgent Stonecutters out there, you need to find your best friend Carl Carlson in order to work together to stop this menace! Each night, you can chose one person in the game. Should that person turn out to be Carl, you will be able to speak to each other outside the game as Masons.
You win with town.
Carl- SirAlex
You are Carl Carlson, TOWN LIMITED MASON!
While a former member of the Stonecutters, you swore off their ways when it became clear that the Chosen One was leading you down the wrong path. With the resurgent Stonecutters out there, you need to find your best friend Leonard Leonardson in order to work together to stop this menace! Each night, you can chose one person in the game. Should that person turn out to be Lenny, you will be able to speak to each other outside the game as Masons.
You win with town.
Mr. Burns- Cid
You are C. Montgomery Burns, VANILLA TOWN!
You spent your time and paid your dues in the Stonecutters, as much as you hate doing both, but when word got out that they were re-forming, you felt that it wasn’t for you. After all, screw the rules, you have money, right? Well, despite all that, your Three-Stooges Syndrome and age renders you pretty ineffective otherwise, so you are vanilla town.
You win with town.
Dr. Nick- Ryogo
You are Dr. Nick Riviera, VANILLA TOWN!
Hi everybody! You’re Dr. Nick Riviera! You went to Hollywood Upstairs Medical College, so when you’re not preaching the virtues of the Whipped Food Group, you’re performing some rather dubious surgeries with questionable results. Therefore, you can’t really be counted on in a medical emergency where the Stonecutters are concerned, so you are vanilla town.
You win with town.
Dr. Hibbert- Smodge
You are Dr. Julius Hibbert, VANILLA TOWN!
Chuckle and chortle, good doctor, for you are on the scene during this grave Stonecutter crisis! Unfortunately for you, you would be sued for medical malpractice and lose your medical license if you were to operate outside the hospital (you already had that close run-in when you removed that man’s appendix in the street with your pocket knife. That caused a lot of collateral damage). So play it safe and rely on the brainpower that’s allowed you to be a doctor for all these years.
You win with town.
Principal Skinner- Carthrat
You are Principal Seymour Skinner, VANILLA TOWN!
Fake name, fake life, but you’ve settled into it quite nicely. You ran with the Stonecutters once, but the secrets were too much for your humdrum way of life, and it was getting very hard to come up with new lies to tell your mother of why you were going out every Friday night. With the new crisis, you clearly have to protect her, so it’s Sergeant Seymour Skinner reporting for duty!
You win with town.
Bart- Bardiche
You are Bart Simpson, VANILLA TOWN!
Yo, hey what’s happening, dude? You’re the guy with a rep for being rude! Unfortunately, your prescription for Focusyn ran out and your telescope is broken, so you have neither the wits nor the tools to really help out in this troubled time. So hopefully everyone will be listening to you, because after all, “I didn’t do it!” is just so catchy.
You win with town.
Milhouse- Excal
You are Milhouse Van Houten, VANILLA TOWN!
Welcome, THRILLHO! You should know this isn’t Bonestorm, so you won’t have any fancy moves, and hiding urine-soaked mattresses isn’t a skill that will help you catch the Stonecutters. You’re just regular, old milquetoast Milhouse. The dud.
You win with town.
Apu- Delta
You are Apu Nahasapeemapetalon, BULLETPROOF TOWN!
Who needs the Quik-E-Mart? You do! That’s why you must protect it at all costs against the Stonecutters’ machinations. Well, your wife and eight kids also need protection, but losing the Quik-E-Mart would be the end of everything! Being a convenience store clerk, you know well the hot kiss of lead in your chest. After surviving so many shots, it has made you BULLETPROOF, making you immune to nightkills.
You win with town.
As noted before, I realized a mass claim would impair a lot of roles, so I switched Wiggum to straightup Rolecop and Lenny and Carl to already being able to talk to each other. Also wish I hadn't missed that I forgot to put Wiggum's role on Homer's PM. It made Snowfire pretty paranoid.