Excal:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14162#msg14162That said, there is the valid points raised about him. First off, he left hours before deadline on day 1, knowing there was no majority, and knowing his vote was not on anyone who could be lynched. This is baffling, as he is one of the people who I would expect not to make a mistake like that out of ignorance, much like I do not believe Otter likely to do that. But, barring them being scum buddies, it obviously must be a mistake on one of their parts. Secondly, there is the whole hearted view in my defense. This is the one I really want to look into. Specifically, his views and attitudes towards Keeshi on Day 2 which seems like a similar case, and may be useful in showing if he does hint at having concrete knowledge of who is on which side.
I find this interesting. Originally, I accepted Alex's claim about not being around after all, due to gaming or what have you. But I haven't really questioned it from the standpoint of
why he wasn't around and whether I'm willing to believe he forgot we were going towards a deadline with no clear majority.
Alex's views on Keeshi seemed to resemble a bit of tunnel vision, something which I've noticed him get into a few games. Do you believe there's more to it than that? You mention looking for whether there are hints of this concrete knowledge. I haven't really spotted any during previous reads of the thread, so are you theorizing, or do you have something tangible?
Alex:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14166#msg14166The only point in his defense at all is Tom being on his case early - BEFORE he got the "only one terrible post on day 2" strike and at a time when he was a tossup lynch with OK. My viewpoint right now is that I think the argument from Tom's behavior is more compelling and better to follow, since we know Tom's alignment for a fact, we know for a fact that the things Tom did are Scum Behavior.
Excal's behavior? No such luck. Scummy? Yes. Flip evidence backing it up? No.
Alex, again:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14206#msg14206Cor, I don't see why you're trying to draw a distinction between those two actions. I don't think it matters whether Tom was actively pressuring or joining a wagon or voting or not voting. That early in the game, I think scum are just as unlikely to "hop on wagons" of other scum as they are to "actively convince people to vote" other scum. What matters is that he expressed serious support for lynching Excal, and that's enough in my book.
...
Tom had no heat on him whatsoever, save from Keeshi, who was pretty sketchy at that time, and no pressing reason to be on the case of a fellow scum when there were other nice juicy cases like OK and Keeshi he could have jumped on instead. The only reason I could see for him hopping on scum-Excal day 2 is that not doing so would be inconsistent with what he stated day 1... which begs the question of why was he on scum-Excal day 1.
Please excuse the selective quoting and boldening. It is the best way to make my point without drowning us all in blocks of text. The original context is easily found via the links (or by merely scrolling up).
In any case. The boldened parts are clearly related, and pretty much answer each other. It reads that Alex is saying the following:
The only (main?) point that clears Excal is Tom voting him early day 2 (the first boldened text). The only reason he could do that while Excal could still be scum is so that Tom does not look inconsistent with his claims from day 1 (boldened text #2).
My question, though, is thus: why exactly is this scenario, which you clearly acknowledge is possible by bringing it up yourself, dismissed so easily in your defense of Excal? In fact, it seems like the most logical version of events as supported by fact. Let's look at it again. Tom promises to vote... but doesn't. Keeshi, who is around, thus cannot switch to Excal, and Excal isn't lynched.
So why do all this? Plenty of possibilities. Scum couldn't possibly know Keeshi was cop day 1, so they could've hoped people would stay on her case and swung the vote over. Had Tom followed suit after his initial vote, would any of us have noticed? I know I was partially filtering out his posts, which was bad but the logic often pained me enough to do this. Also, Excal (if scum), like Tom, could've had some powers that were useful having. Excal could be the godfather, and end up 'cleared' by a cop town is almost assured to have. We could go on and on, but I just can't see how you're rationalizing Excal is town based on evidence that points in the other direction, on top of being largely suspect to begin with.
which begs the question of why was he on scum-Excal day 1.
And yet, he didn't have a vote on Excal when things went down. You're downplaying this, but I think it is very important as I've descibed above. He got the benefits of both worlds: he supported town on a popular lynch candidate, but also stopped just short of actually laying a vote. The latter could either be due to knowing Excal is town and wanting to avoid the assosiation for lazy people digging only through votecount posts and not much else, or due to knowing Excal is scum and trying to keep him alive (which worked, I must add, as Excal is still with us).
OK:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14178#msg14178What do I make of all this: Tom is weird. Very much all over the place. He was focusing a lot on Ryogo (generally helping him, supporting him, cheerleading, though did call him out a bit and try to draw attention here and there), as well as Carth/OK/Cor as potential scum mixes that require some sort of combination of matters to accomplish anything. From what I can see here, he's fully right in saying scum wouldn't kill Excal or myself at night - we both would draw fabulous attention, and kept alive, both of us would probably be lynched. I think this is why Keeshi really did the claim - to keep that from happening, and why she went after Tom - get something new. Mmm...
So, I think I'm not very suspicious of Excal now, despite the shitty logic - his bit of explanation to me in particular...makes sense, though it's not what I'd do, personally. So I think I can forgive that for the moment, at least. It looks like he really wanted myself and you to take the fall, and I doubt scum would do that.
I don't really like how he defends Excal here. The logic seems to be "Tom went after both of us, so I'm inclined to believe both of us are actually town. Agree with me, which incidentally clears me as town as well."
I'm interested to hear what Alex thinks of this. He believes Tom's actions clear Excal. Does he agree on OK?
And a question to OK. What do you think about my points to Alex in this post and previously?
So, scum from this, from my analysis, seem to be somewhere within the possibilities of Cor, Shale, Otter and Ryogo. Preliminary, mind you - this is just an analysis of Tom's stuff, and I need to take a better look at the interactions to be sure.
This is a bit personal, so take it with the usual grain of salt. But I feel a disconnect between how OK analyzes Tom's references to myself, himself and Excal together (he goes 'Carth/OK/Cor' for himself and me, and 'myself and you' to effectively bring Excal into the mix later), and draws from this that he and Excal are cleared while leaving me in the list of suspects (Rat's dead and town, so that leaves only me of the four listed there). Was it because Tom didn't vote me? There weren't any trains on me, so to do that he'd need to start a case himself -- something Tom avoided doing this game, as he only tagged along for whatever seemed popular, citing others and then joining in.
Also, why do you group Shale with your suspects? You say:
Shale...I get such a good town feeling from, though Shale is the most-least mentioned person in Tom's posts. This is a gut feeling...Shale's...probably been on the fence, with regards to other things, though.
Does your gut feeling refer to feeling there might be something off about Shale despite him looking good? Is it about him feeling town, while logic points you elsewhere? Please clarify.
Also, who is your leading candidate for today?
Andrew:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14200#msg14200Interesting look on Ryogo, but I don't feel we can afford to lynch just based on possible info gained from a flip. It's been said ad nauseum, I know, but he
is new and I see scumtells from people who have actually been around as having more meaning.
Can't really begrudge you for voting Otter, since you hit the points about him that seem quite scummy.
Sopko:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14219#msg14219I do want to look over Ryogo and Corwin. I keep forgetting they're here. Ryogo especially...
This is an outright lie, and worries me quite a lot. I haven't forgotten Sopko's lurking tendencies from the beginning of the game, even if he keeps on getting a pass on them, pretty much. To see
him accuse
me of lurking is not something I can keep quiet about. You keep forgetting I'm here? I find that incredibly hard to believe.
I also find it quite telling that Sopko picked the two people who have been suspicious of Sopko from the start and have been calling him out on it periodically.
For Corwin...
Corwin's been a lot better about keeping tabs than Ryogo, but thusly has escaped suspicion more than anyone else, I think. It's just gut feeling. He went through Days 1 and 2 mostly targeting OK, but also supporting an Excal lynch. He was also one to switch to Tom without so much as a debate.
The truth is getting twisted so much here that I can't call this a misrepresentation. It's a pack of outright lies!
I've been going after
lurkers, which are people I've defined as having no or low content. I went after YOU, and only switched to OK, the other lurker for two reasons: everyone seemed content giving you a pass, like Rat, for some bizarre reason and OK had by that time gone far longer without content. What he did have out was scummy, so that's where my vote went. Day 1 didn't have a lynch, so I had no reason to switch from this target. While I supported the Excal lynch to a degree based on how scummy Excal seemed, you also omit that when the choice was between Keeshi and Excal, due to pretty much excusing Keeshi's behavior as newbish and having a gut feeling that she was town, instead of trying to help her by moving to Excal, I tried to convince everyone of following LAL and lead the way there. What is suspicious about championing a proven approach to the game that never fails to get scum if used decisively throughout the game?!
On my 'switch' to Tom, that is also being distorted! I was the first to vote Tom after Keeshi's roleclaim (effectively, being the second vote on him after hers). I specifically said I wanted to hear from him and for him to use the vote as a measure of how serious the situation he was in was. Also, was there any doubt that I'd considered Keeshi more credible throughout, and that I didn't buy into the crazy 'miller/insane cop' scenarios? And then Tom ended up being hammered before I could write a comprehensive post that would've formalized the vote (or turned it to Keeshi, if I'd bought Tom's explanation when he posted); am I to blame for that as well?
If I had any hope that people would listen to me at last and adopt LAL at last, I'd be voting on you right now. But I've seen how that's worked out here, so I'll just go with the scummiest of the candidates actually on the table and hope that the one I picked is scum.
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