So... if there was never a compelling case against Nitori, why would Tai vote for him originally? A mistake? A passing shot at an early bus? I've done this myself as scum. I'll grant that the case on Soppy is a WIFOM, 'cos in thinking about it, he was really the only target for *any* scum to NK if they want to maximize their chances of victory.
You're kinda accusing me of being a hypocrite, in that I'm taking a shot at Tai for stuff I'm guilty of. Go ahead, I don't care; if you could lynch both of us today I'd dare you too. I would obviously *prefer* you lynched Tai today, so that in the event that I'm wrong, I can at least try to not get lynched myself. But if I hypothetically had input after I die, I'd still be going after Tai. Remember that if I'm gone!
<->
This is a pretty big thing I've written up vis a vis Tai. It's.. got a pretty strong slant against him, but I've provided links to all his major posts. I will admit right now that I'm going after him because I think Kilga and Strago are *not* scum and Tai *is*, which has made me actively search for things that might be scumtells.
Ok, picking up from after my first analysis of Tai..
Day 4 Cont'dhttp://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2910#msg2910 Tai's first response.
At the time, I honestly didn't think much of Tai's similarity to Excal, but it was there and had to be pointed out. Now I believe they've been acidentally matching each other due to having a single scummy mind, as it were. They probably didn't realise, as he admits to not noticing it in his response to me. I dunno, when I reread his post here, where he claims to feel like 'an outsider looking in' and that he's going to have to change his style, it just feels really wrong to me.
He may have admitted to what I see as distancing himself because he couldn't really respond in another way, perhaps? (Excal doesn't adddress the similarity at all; in retrospect it may have been worth poking both of them over this.)
[urlhttp://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3037#msg3037[/url]
He comes out with a vote for Otter, which was the cool thing to do at the time, and pretty early by the looks of it. He also defends Excal a bit more in this post as well.
He pokes for opinions on me, on whom he has a neutral read. It felt like, by the by, that me and Tai were thought of as slipping under the radar quite frequently. I think Tai's done this more than me, but Strago seemed to share the neutral impression, with vauge tendancies towards towniness and such.
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3094#msg3094 This is a post from Excal, wherein he says that Tai may have jumped in early on Nitori to start a bus.
I believe this was done under the assumption that *Tai* would later get lynched. This way, if Excal was suspected, he could come back here- with a statement that seems dangerous for scum to lay down if they're trying to keep the pressure off each other- and point out that he was drawing attention to Tai way back here. Ok, this is a longshot, but it's here.
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3104#msg3104In this post, Tai interacts with Excal; justifying his vote for Nitori and correcting a minor mistake. Nothing much of interest here.
Conclusions of Day 4: It.. really isn't that much. Taishyr can be seen to be acting a little strangely with his larger posts, and his other posts are generally quite small, making short statements to justify his own votes and not going into so much detail. Eh, I can't say much bad about him here.
Day 5[urlhttp://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3209#msg3209[/url]
His first post of the day. I think it's worth quoting.
First, mang, am I that non-present, Mad Fnorder? Shiii.
Secondly, aigh, Otter -was- town? Shit. If it weren't for the cop, I'd be glaring at Excal heavily at this point (and Corwin, if he weren't dead); even now, that pretty much removed my trust toward him. Though it's not as if I don't have egg on my face... cha. I went with reason and reason lost.
On the other hand, we have Shale, with... the investigation on Fnorder revealing a ghost? Mmm. While I can understand the votes... ...mrrr, I'm actually gutpulling away from Fnorder being scum. I can't explain it, but... (SK + Two Town) just feels... far more likely to me than (SK + Scum + Town). While Fnorder may be something else, I... aiya. Give me time to look this over and finish a current analysis, this situation... just feels off. Nitori got eliminated with no help from BC, and then BC fell... why do I have the feeling this is all a sacrifice game?
He would be glaring at Excal except for the cop (more clear-ness towards Excal...), has a gut feeling against voting for Fnorder (gut feelings are generally unjustified; he's pulling the correct metagame analysis and there isn't much way he'd be able to say that with certainty unless he knew scum roles), and he thinks it's a sacrifice game (because it was, and he sacrificed Nitori early!)
After this pokes he makes a number of very small, one-liner posts that don't say much. Wows over the number of cops, continues with his gut feelings on FNorder, throws out some stuff about why breadcrumbs don't mean anything, and... aha.
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3346#msg3346The almight 'who talked to whom' post, great collateral, excellent stuff, totally useless.
Yeah, I'm calling it useless. I was concerned about this beforehand. The post makes an excellent screen if Tai is scum, given that he's set up an interaction with himself and Excal already. He's not interacted with *other* scum according to this list, I guess, but... honestly, this list reads more and more to me like some great smokescreen rather than anything helpful; it can get discussion moving in a lot of places, and most of them are *away* from Tai and Excal.
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3354#msg3354In this post, he's concerned mainly about what is learned if we lynch Excal. Ok, sure, if he's town we may not have learned much at the time (I honestly don't remember). If he's scum.. we learn that he's scum for sure, man. Again, this is a longshot, but what of 'thou shalt not suffer scum to live'?
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3359#msg3359Despite thinking Fnorder is going to show up scum, he would advocate lynching him over Shale at the moment. Reasonable, given Shale is the cop. I can't make so much of this post... it's kind of just 'there' for me. Anyone else want to take a crack at analysis?
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3437#msg3437He comes out to hit Soppy, here. Honestly I can't fault him much given the oddness of Tai's claim. I will admit if Soppy was going to claim, he should claim all his role (including the miller part), but I would have preferred Soppy to not claim at this point.
Day 5 conclusions: The really big post Tai threw up doesn't really seem terribly helpful; ideally, scum try to play by emulating townies, which does mean calling each other out on mistakes and such. It could be seen as a towntell due to the amount of work he seemed to put into it (except it's really just rereading the thread checking things.) Apart from this... blah. He made a series of moves that seem decent enough, but I can see why people would think he's staying in the background, you know? They don't stand out from crowd; I only really notice them because I'm looking for them.
Day 6Tai really does three things today.
1) He confirms his nameclaim and jabs VSM for having suspicions that seem based on flavour text. I don't think this was justified of VSM.
2) He makes a big post here.
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3746#msg3746Thinks I'm a townie. Why, thank you. Actually this is something of a towntell for him (given the fast approaching endgame, wouldn't it be better to throw suspicion at me if he's scum, given who is likely to still be alive by the end? Or is he trying to secure my support? Or is he a townie and I'm totally wrong? I doubt this.)
He votes pretty reluctantly on Soppy, eventually, which also seems a bit odd (if he's scum, he can just NK Soppy, can't he?)
3) He switches his vote to Excal on the basis of needing to lynch *somebody*. He really could've kept his vote off here, but then he'd look a bit worse when the day finally ended (especially if hammer came on Excal from another source, like VSM.)
So... again, to me, Tai isn't making many tells either way. At the time, I guess I thought he was more town than scum.
Ultimate Conclusions: I'm trying to think of moments when he's been exceptionally *helpful* to town, and I don't know what he's done that's helped me, personally, through my thinking. He's been participating, but it always feels in something of a muted sense. Until today, I likely would have defended him and avoided voting for him. It's going to take a very strong case against Kilga or Strago to convince me to change my vote at this stage.
I invite someone to make a case *for* Tai As Town.
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