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Messages - Carthrat

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1201
Forum Games / Re: Random Mafia - Be Afraid...Very Afraid
« on: January 09, 2008, 10:48:04 AM »
Also, I fail at quote tags. How about that?

1202
Forum Games / Re: Random Mafia - Be Afraid...Very Afraid
« on: January 09, 2008, 10:47:49 AM »
Quote
And no this isn't some scum ploy >.>[/b]

Glad you're here to remind us! Now I can sleep safe at night.

1203
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 09, 2008, 10:42:38 AM »
When you put it like that (that Shale's case for his defence relies on us winding up with little reason to take what he says seriously), it clicked pretty quickly for me. I guess my current stance on him is that there's no point prodding him today; we're better off following up other roleclaims (particularly Kilga's.)

Corwin's thinking is pretty much in line with my own with regard to where you're coming from with regard to Otter and Strago. I'd hasten to add that Otter was quick to roleclaim at a point where I would question the necessity of doing so. Still, I'm gonna let you off the hook... ##Unvote: Excal

VSM: I'm going to work of the assumption that at least one of Otter and Strago is town for the time being (if not both). The ultimate fact is that Bobbin was scum, so there's little worth attaching much import to what he's said about them by itself. Of the two, I'd lean towards Otter being the more scummy owing to his partially-justified lapses in posting; he's made up for that by being around a fair bit, but I don't think the roleclaim there was called for.

<->

One thing I think Kilga SHOULD do is use his roleblock tonight; he might as well, the odds of him hitting scum are slim. I'd bet we're fresh out of information roles to block. Doc might be possible, but I think the odds are slim.

And it'd at least confirm that part of his role when someone speaks up about it (assuming the roleblock is communicated.)

<->

The Case for Fnorder (Apologies if this has been gone over before, but this is the first time I've really gone through to look at what he's said.)

-There's his bad play in the early days, and by 'Fnorder', I mean 'CPU' here. I certainly don't think this was any elaborate scum replacement plot, but it obviously didn't look very good. Upon replacement he spent most of his time simply trying to catch up.

-He posted this in day 3 http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2590#msg2590. I believe I used what he said about Kilga on this list, but that doesn't change what he's said about other people here, which is a fair number of 'null reads' and 'gut feelings', neither of which look like useful words to go back too later.

-Missed Shale and went back to review him. Still didn't review me, which continues to make me sad.

-You know, he says 'recent events have blown his mind earlier', but wasn't he actually *right* about some things, including the presence of Bobbin's information role (to a point)? From here we can just look at his posting today, in that he's mostly absent. Furthermore, he's also mentioned that classes start soon, indicating that he's going to be around *less*...

A combination of lurkerness and some strange foreknowledge of events.

<->

Otter: Has gone after Excal today! Excal has returned fire! What does Otter have to say about that, and does this reflect on anyone else at all?

Sopko: Has been getting more active as of late. Although he was hammer, he was not exactly just posting that out of the blue; he'd made other posts at around that time and I feel he was participating. This seems to mesh with what is ultimately his usual playstyle to me (I've seen him outright state in IRC games that he is pretty quiet early on and picks up the pace later. Or something to that effect.)

Being hammer doesn't give him instant clearance, but to those who think this is worth specifically mentioning (i.e. Strago), I'd like to hear what you don't like about his play so far.

1204
Forum Games / Re: Random Mafia - Be Afraid...Very Afraid
« on: January 09, 2008, 01:47:12 AM »
If I got your lucky number, doesn't that imply good things about me?

1205
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 09, 2008, 12:36:59 AM »
Hmm. No votes! Well.

##Vote: Excal. I'll toss this out. Talk about Shale! Thanks to the voting records I am somewhat suspicious of you; today is not a day I want you in particular to fade to the background.

1206
Forum Games / Re: Random Mafia - Be Afraid...Very Afraid
« on: January 09, 2008, 12:27:29 AM »
##Vote: Alex h8 haiku

1207
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 08, 2008, 03:05:15 PM »
Why'd you pick Shale to investigate?

1208
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 08, 2008, 02:54:00 PM »
There is one reason and one reason only for you to roleclaim now, and that is to spill information. The claim itself can't be verified at all unless we lynch a docbuster. *We want our confirmed townies*. Scum *don't* want confirmed townies even if they get to NK them because it might force them to make an NK they would otherwise have liked to skip. Unlike the rolecop thing, where the role may indeed be one we don't want to draw any attention too (i.e. doc), I feel you pretty much have to come out with this right away now that you've said you've got it.

1209
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 08, 2008, 02:35:39 PM »
I was kind of hoping hammer wouldn't come that quick. Kinda surprised at Soppy for hammering there; my own inclination was to hope a bit more discussion came out of it. Still, there's something to be said for decisive action (especially when it, y'know, works.) With regard to who scum is killing, there's not much to say; they've offed our revealed power roles one after another.  QR could've been for any reason.

I went back to the start of day 3 (or end of day 2!) and noted Otter's post, which is regarding inspecting people voting for VSM; namely, Kilga, myself, and Excal (the others were dead. So.) We're all still alive and he made the point that VSM was a likely scum target at the time, assuming they were trying at some stage to shift pressure away from Nitori. So I'm going to study Kilga and Excal right now. My initial impression at the time of day 3 start is that Kilga has a pretty townie vibe, and what I remember most about Excal right now is him beating on Shale. Both of them were voting for Cranbud today, too.

I find it to be unlikely that Kilga is scum 'cos Bobbin was voting for him that early on both days. I'm aware that there's an argument that it's an exercise in building credibility, but attacking him straight on two days just feels unlikely to me- furthermore, Kilga has been a relatively active townie, compared to, say, *Nitori* (who would've made an easier bus on day two) and not really a strong candidate to get bussed. As some have pointed out, Bobbin had trouble giving out reasons. I'm sure that between the two days, had he planned to continue on this course of action, he could've found some by conversing with his comrades.

Furthermore, the stumbling over metagame description aside, I find Kilga looking pretty good day 3 in general; it was his post here

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2632#msg2632 that convinced a number of people to vote for Cranbud (including Excal and Shale (whom Excal was targeting)). I'll admit that I've been pretty consistant in hyping the man.

Right now I want Excal to reiterate what he thinks about Shale now, I guess. Pretty much nobody was really defending Cranbud that day, and Shale seems like the person who was targeted the most out of the rest (and even then, that wasn't very much). Personally, I don't know what to make of him; his defence amounts to a lack of confidence in himself, which is never something I like to see. On the other hand, he's been a pretty frequent poster since day 2, I think?

1210
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 08, 2008, 03:45:35 AM »
Something occured to me: It is possible that one of them is a full scum rolecop as well and is using what they know about the situation to fabricate this kind of dualism. Bobbin, Yak, how much detail are you getting? One-word roles, or is it explained to you exactly how they work? I'm *not* asking you to quote things, here, just tell us how it seems.

1211
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 08, 2008, 01:35:01 AM »
Well, that means it picks up a variety of powers that you won't, in theory. I wouldn't necessarily call it useless. I'm not sure how his power works, but it can also confirm people who have 'active' roles at all via failure of investigation. The complimentary rolecop thing could be townie, and again makes me second-guess my metagaming (which, of course, just goes to show that I shouldn't be doing it at all.)

It's Bobbin's call if he reveals stuff or not. I think he should in the name of more widespread information, but it's also dependant on the roles involved. Frankly, I think Yak should do the same thing.

1212
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 07, 2008, 11:51:09 PM »
Annnnnnnnd I meant to toss out a link to Fnorders post. HEre you go. http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2590#msg2590

1213
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 07, 2008, 11:49:35 PM »
I am... waiting for Cranbud to confirm or deny and want him to roleclaim. Current sentiment is that given Yakumo's claim, he could be onto something, given that rolecop could be on either side, and Cranbud certainly looks the worse of the two; I've found his posts to generally seem to stifle discussion (for instance, the last one was tacit support of VSM not voting, which I think is kinda off). Normally there is a lot of 'if x is town, lynch y' hate. In this particular case I believe it has some merit given the odds of two rolecops on one side (combined with the other two information roles we have. Metaing? I guess, but I feel it's valid here.) VSM's theory is pretty interesting, and on a related note, his role suddenly looks a lot stronger as far as controlling lynches goes.

In any case, ##Vote: BobbinCranbud

(Relevant Cranbud Post: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2460#msg2460)

Fnorder didn't have any thoughts on me, either. I feel lonely and sad. He has a bad gut feeling on Corwin which I invite him to analyze in a useful fashion. Thoughts on Kilga is that he doesn't come back to his analysises or the like, and they *are* pretty much rehashes. That does pique my interest, given that they were also at a time when lynching and taking on lurkers was the done thing (moreso than taking on people with a decent amount of posts.) I also continue to find Kilga's discussion of metagame information bizzare. (aggregate metagame information = zero! I like that one, I admit.)

A fairly large number of people, as far as I can tell, are worried about Sopko. He's had two posts today, only one of which says anything concerning suspicion, and very little was said there, too.

1214
Forum Games / Re: Touhou Mafia Signups
« on: January 07, 2008, 11:11:26 PM »
Corwin picked Kaguya?

Oh wow

1215
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 07, 2008, 08:12:17 AM »
Ah, you mean people who were specifically around at that time, I didn't catch that.

I guess part of what I'm trying to do is ascertain that people had good reasons for voting or not voting for VSM/Nitori *at that time*. The flips and final votecount do point to Nitori hitting VSM pretty early, and the odds of two scum being lynch candidates seems pretty low, hence why I was willing to cut him a bit of slack here. The most I can do to VSM right now is apply pressure, which I wll do by asking him a question: Who do you think is scummy right now, VSM?

1216
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 07, 2008, 07:39:43 AM »
Corwin: You can just say 'everyone who didn't vote for Nitori' warrants further inspection. While it's true everyone deserves to be looked at, this doesn't really single stuff out (that's a lot of people!) NONETHELESS there is obviously more to your post than that. So.

Yakumo and Strago both have relatively acceptable reasons for hitting Nitori. I *personally* still do not understand why VSM looked like a substantial townie, but I'm really going to have to concede to the majority here; I've nothing to say about him that I haven't already. Kilga.. Kilga still seems to be under the gun. I do think it's odd that he mentioned the time-release thing; surely that's just the vagaries of various GMs? I'm not sure what it has to do with the role being town or not. Why did you?

1217
Forum Games / Re: Touhou Mafia Signups
« on: January 07, 2008, 05:21:48 AM »
MOKOU

1218
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 06, 2008, 11:49:11 PM »
I said it earlier, but doublevoting doesn't seem like a role to me that's necessarily restricted to town. I really hate using logic like 'it's been this way in previous mafia games; surely it would be the same here?!'. I would also comment to Otter than as far as I go, my vote for VSM came about before I think anyone could perceive Nitori as being in serious danger. Both he and VSM were at 2, for what that's worth. In summary: VSM had been playing somewhat lurkerish, and when he actually came out to speak, very little was said apart from a somewhat weak defence and entails to get other people to talk more.

Nitori getting bussed seems likely to me, as he didn't seem a terribly effective player and framer is an apparently useless role at the moment. I don't think Corwin is responsible (and I was going to be all set to poke at him today as well) due to the timing of his vote; it came at a time when the main candidates were Cmdr, Nitori, and VSM, with a slight lead for VSM. It would've been really, really easy to get away with a vote for either of them as opposed to Nitori. That leaves Strago and Yakumo, both of whom I've felt relatively comfortable with. So, dudes, why'd you vote for Nitori and not your original targets, again? (Yep, I'm asking why you voted for someone who turned out to be scum!)

I still feel that Kilga and I had justified votes, and I also feel that Kilga was playing relatively strongly and in a town-like manner. We already know there was one scum vote on VSM- Nitori's- and one thing I know that's generally uncommon is scum voting back-to-back. Therefore, I would like to hear what Bobbin's got to say here, too, given that I feel attacks on VSM were justified at the time, and that it's odd to be so firm in your defence of him.

1219
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 06, 2008, 03:27:30 PM »
I checked the frontpage and it seems we actually get our lynch today even if we miss the deadline.

Nitori doesn't stick out to me like VSM does. What he's actually said seems to be somewhat paralell with my own thoughts. I'm not really taking the 'but he's always like this!' argument into consideration. I admit that I'm curious to see what he flips, but not curious enough. I'll admit now that had the no-lynch on deadline been likely to go through, I was ready to capitulate and switch to him, though.

<->

Strago, I weep. I really do. ;_;

1220
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 06, 2008, 12:48:57 PM »
Flavour isn't an issue with regard to roles.

VSM's role is interesting. He's overstating the power it has; it's a much stronger role late-game than early, especially if he lives to LYLO. It's a role that, in the DL at least, has been traditionally a town role. But demonstrating that it exists doesn't clear him of suspicion. I believe the role is a neutral one which could easily belong to either side (and is really quite powerful in scum hands.) Going for no-lynch is an unwise thing to say on his part. I'm getting kind of leery of the people defending him at present.

CK eventually unvoted for Shale and targeted VSM, along with a fairly potent (if it can be believed) roleclaim. I can presume that alongside wanting to stay alive by knocking out some other target (which is actually good townie play, to a degree, people!), he was somewhat satisfied with Shale's responses.

I'm gonna agree with Sopko's earlier statement that Cranbud's defence of VSM does draw suspicion to Bobbin himself. I'd like to draw attention to this post: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2224#msg2224

In it, Bobbin spends most of his time defending me and my irritated fit of pique over CPU and Unoriginal. He seems to make all the right allowances, saying that my actions are understandable, although somewhat odd and strange! He kind of leaves a phrase hanging over Yakumo-

Quote
I find it a little strange that Yakumo would come back so soon saying it leaves 'a bad taste in his mouth.'
. This is with regards to voting off townies playing badly and seeing it as a grim necessity. But it seemed pretty obvious to me that Yakumo must've felt mostly the same way I did; what makes this strange?

<->

I'm still voting for VSM, though. It's just too close to deadline and he just looks worse to me than anyone else. I can't in good conscience unvote him just for having a role which could go either way, and ultimately isn't terribly strong to begin with.

1221
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 06, 2008, 09:00:19 AM »
I sort of symphasize with cmdr here. I wish he hadn't done it, but it's a tough call to make given the timing issues.

On roleclaims, though, I'm inclined to call for one out of VSM; he *is* only three votes to lynch, and I, too, will be asleep when deadline hits. I'll still be up for a few hours, so if this is going to happen, it's my preference it does before I sleep.

1222
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 06, 2008, 06:33:26 AM »
When last I checked, the people I was wary of were Shale, Soppy, and Corwin.

Corwin is looking better at the moment, though. I feel a mite piqued that he's coming on strongly to my own poor/hypocritical plays. It doesn't seem to bother him much, however, although it probably merited pointing out.

Kilga kinda backed out on hitting CmdrKing like he said he would before and hit VSM instead on grounds of lurking, and this was before VSM started making the horrible plays he's doing at the moment. VSM seems to claim he's made some substantial claims-

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2292#msg2292

-and yet thinks his opinion is uninformed-

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2282#msg2282

-that Kilga has been trying to make things more confusing (and to date, Kilga has seemed like a solid player to me. Frankly, I think it's odd that VSM has the balls to call Kilga out on questioning himself)

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2296#msg2296

-is giving Soppy street cred just recently when it would be natural for scum to vote for people who aren't scum that look suspicious (as opposed to making dumb votes for people who look relatively clean).

This is all enough to warrant a ##Vote: VSM from me.

You know, I'd be more inclined to believe the Soppy Street Cred theory if he'd stuck with QR at all, but his suspicions were pretty easily deflected and he wound up making the easy vote for EvilTom, who was rapidly seeming far more suspicious at the time. At the moment, Soppy remains mostly vacant in what he's saying. His latest post doesn't really accuse anyone of being bad and is pretty passive in general; talking about town vs. town arguments, things that don't swing someone towards scum or town either way, etc. etc. etc.

Oh, and this gem from Bobbin Cranbud;

Quote
In fact, there's SO little to go on - annoyingly little; this feels more like a Day 1 to me  - I find your aggressive pursuit of VSM, and the way you've gone about it, probably the most suspicious thing going on.  It's honestly not all that much, but it's more than I have on anyone else.
followed by a vote for Kilga. *VSM* is not playing terribly smartly! Why do you think VSM doesn't deserve to be attacked? You can see he's having trouble defending himself! I don't feel like I'm voting blind, here.

Shale claims to be starting to make an effort. I'll grant his posts seem to be reflecting more on what's already happened, although I feel he could be saying more.

Quote from: RoteTownisms
Everyone NEEDS to vote and converse. It's extraordinarily frustrating here; I *know* that just because a bunch of you aren't talking or saying much doesn't mean everyone who is kinda-lurking is scum. But it's the best tell I can find at the moment. I hate seeing this desire to force people to slow down or not put pressure on others. Part of the assumption in lynching lurkers is that lynching lurkers works because scum have more trouble coming up with what to say than town because every claim they make is, essentially, a *fabrication*; therefore they are more likely to post less frequently. The whole system just falls apart if you don't pick up the pace.

Especially the voting. In case you didn't realise, we are currently forced to lynch by deadline. You. Must. Vote. Not putting down a vote is tantamount to voting No Lynch, which is not a good idea right now and probably won't be at all this game.

1223
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 05, 2008, 10:28:42 AM »
Well, isn't it obvious? If someone is confirmed scum or highly suspected scum, then by killing them instead of some less-guilty seeming townie, you may eliminate scum and may eliminate a lousy townie, which means that some *other* townie can keep talking and contributing. You also prevent the scum from shifting things with their vote, nonlogic, and whatever role powers they might have (if they're actually scum).

Basically, kill suspicious people! It's our purpose as a lynch mob! Isn't that the whole point of all the discussion?

1224
Forum Games / Re: General Mafia discussion topic
« on: January 05, 2008, 08:16:39 AM »
Man, open signups early. I wanna secure my firebird. Or if not her, then my cutereaper. Or if not here, then... I dunno, one of the rabbits...

1225
Forum Games / Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« on: January 05, 2008, 08:14:02 AM »
Fnorder: Do you mean 'more aggressively than a normal mafia player' or 'more aggressively than he ususally plays'?

Soppy, why do you find Shale's defence of you suspicious? I'd also like to make a blanket request for people to post links to stuff that's deeper in the threads if it's at all possible; its a pain to search post-by-post. I still don't like the way you conduct yourself, and your recent post here just isn't making too much sense to me either. You noticed the Shale thing? But I thought the Shale thing was that he looked bad if you flipped scum! (I'm not sure why, but that's what Kilga said! Can anyone explain this to me?)


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