Messages

1

Forum Games / Re: Tsundere Mafia - Day 1

« on: September 14, 2010, 09:03:07 PM »

I for one won't mind to see the conductor go. His claim for leaving his vote is stupid. He already said he dislikes ALL OTHER CASES. Leaving only the one he's supporting right now. His claim that he leaves it on for the sake of Sudden Death is downright stupid because if he believed all of the other cases are crap and Tanaka looks worst, he should be claiming to leave it there so he can convince people to get on Tanaka instead. This action lacks of course and I for one won't mourn his passing. Blah blah blah jumping on a bandwagon but if I can't get Li Syaoran today I'll take the only other alternative. So there you have the support of the world's greatest EVA pilot!!

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Forum Games / Re: Tsundere Mafia - Day 1

« on: September 14, 2010, 08:29:49 PM »

Ok, I have two votes because one person misreads what I said and one idiot boy thinks I am scummy for never wasting my time talking about the Tron case. What makes him any better anyway? Because he made a Captain Obvious statement? Hey everyone, Tron said something about piling on one person, and she doesn't offer an alternative!! This is an obvious case and it is obviously easy to jump on it, why should I waste my breath saying something so damn obvious? It's crap; it's ED1 or at least RVS D1.

Why do we pile on one person during the damn RVS? Because we want someone to comment on it, we want to see reactions. Tron provided a reaction. This isn't some damn science like piloting an EVA that only few people can do!! There's nothing outstanding in that case.

That said, Miss Langley's post consisting of an attack aimed solely at me which depends entirely on my first vote on her being serious (Hint: It wasn't)

And what's with this anyway? Some Chinaman way of saying "I don't understand goddamn English?" Where the hell did I ever take his vote on me serious? I kept my vote on him because he reacted so defensively by pointing at others who fit the bill of my jokevote. I thought that was plenty interesting to keep my vote on and hey look, he refines his vote to an OMGUS and doesn't even have any damn thing to show for it!! He whines I didn't comment on Tron or anything remotely interesting when the only 'interesting' talk was Tron. Unless you count the lurker squad, who I don't because they're lurkers and not worth my time!!

A: A reason for pointing out things that you do not consider scummy other than waffling (This is, as you put it when voting me, a potential soft prod)

This is a dumb trap anyway. We all know, everyone knows, that the only answer Tron can give that she thought it was innocent. This is just asking for the damn obvious. Nothing Syaoran has done today hasn't been kicking in the Temples of Damn Obvious and singing the National Anthem of Obliviousville.

The case on Chiaki is the ONLY interesting thing beside Syaoran brat here today. And the case on Tron is stupid. Tanaka's case is equally stupid especially with Chiaki's OMGUS.

I was just about to put my vote on Tanaka since something about his jumping on me for being indecisive on this scarce day 1

just about to put my vote on Tanaka his jumping on me. You're not even pretending not to OMGUS.

3

Forum Games / Re: Tsundere Mafia - Day 1

« on: September 14, 2010, 05:44:08 AM »

@Houligan:

Miss Langley, two points: Firstly, it's very notable that you choose me to single out as one of these 'Angels' when I can sense magical abilities in at least two of the others gathered here: namely, Miss Tokiha and Miss Tohsaka. (OOC: Anyone else here with ~*MAGIC*~, blame me knowing jack shit about anime.)

Secondly, there is a literal fairy here. The little thing with wings, flying right next to you? I don't think you're in any position to argue science.

You can't argue facts. He's whining that a completely random vote landed on him and that there's two or three other idiots who are votable instead under the same excuse I used!! Don't you get how pathetic that is?!? I'm not going to say I'm the greatest at finding aliens─I am even though they all trust that idiot daddy's boy more than me─but at least I'm not going to whine about any little setback!! I'm not going to dogpile with hardly any of you even speaking!

I don't even think his comments are worth responding to right now. I mean look at him!! He's complaining I don't comment on Tron Bonne just because a few people decide to gang on her?!? What the hell, why should I tunnel on her? What is there to go on for her, huh?!

4

Forum Games / Re: Tsundere Mafia - Day 1

« on: September 13, 2010, 09:21:07 PM »

Naja, es ist doch gar nicht möglich das-- was für den Teufel...?! What do you mean you can't speak German?!? Gaaaaah!!! If you have to post─why can't you post in German?!? You're just as bad as that idiot daddy's boy.

Magic brat, stop whining, jeez!! There's gotta be more than one Angel, why the heck should I prioritize on someone other than you?!? If you can't take the heat then don't take the seat!! What's with this pointing at others anyway, brat? What kind of coward would hide behind another's back?!? God, you're idiot daddy's boy number 2.

5

Forum Games / Re: Tsundere Mafia - Day 1

« on: September 12, 2010, 08:32:57 PM »

Und so ist es klar das einen Engel sich setzt im unsere Gruppe. Und ein Junge wie'd einige Zauberkräfte hätte? Das ist nicht mögentlich für menschen!

##VOTE: Li Syaoran

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Forum Games / Re: Tsundere Mafia

« on: September 11, 2010, 02:27:23 AM »

Jetzt habe ich Ihren Nachricht empfangen.

7

Forum Games / Blacksmith Floorboard Heresy

« on: May 11, 2010, 08:38:59 PM »

I don't know, Sam played the whole super bussing thing, but didn't actually play it well, what with pumping so much information into the game tying him down very tightly. He spent most of the game tying a noose around his own neck - it was never going to last. It also pretty much forced him to lynch Seamus on day 4, even when it saved a townie they really needed to deal with at one point or another.

Likewise that revival play. The main reason not to distrust Nathan from it was because it wouldn't save him.


My experience of the game:

Day 1: Tied up in crazy defence.
Day 2: Motivation drain on probable slow kill.   (and man, not one but two docs on me at the time)
Day 3: Dead, and mostly confused about how anything could balance.
Day 4: Too much to catch up on.
Day 5: Dying again, still too much to bother catching up on.
Day 6: Dead. Again.

So, uh, sorry guys, I wasn't actually of much use when it came to working out who was what (I never did read the thread in full again). I can optimise the role set up without thinking too much (reeeaaaally wish you had told us about the self-revival, Nikolai - sure, we would have pretty much definitely lynched you to prove the point, but I would have known that we had a spare action as a result), but didn't have a really good idea of who was what based on what they'd been saying like you're supposed to, other than that Excal really wasn't playing like Excal. Like, my only memory of Martin was the first two days of lurking, so I was way behind on the more positive reads of him being far townier than Nathan, which mattered. You know, like how the game is supposed to work.

I'm really quite happy with how my outing the fast killer gambit paid off, mostly because I knew the first box of suspects didn't make sense and that broke it open, but also because it made Mei-Fan head townie, and she had all of the right information about who had been playing scummy to bring it home.

Also glad that town rallied at about the point I died, despite no fewer than four townie giant distractions during the game. That took some really smooth play to keep in hand.

The game felt really unbalanced for quite some time - first in town's favour, then in scum's favour by about the time that I died [for the first time] - but worked out oddly well when actually getting to grips with the whole picture.

I had plenty to say but have mostly forgotten it at the moment, so it can wait until whenever. The only other thing to say immediately would be:

My initial guess for Nathan Greaves's true name is Rath'napula. This being the name presented to me when I was being slow killed by... oh, lookie here, Nathan. In my dark visions it was supposedly the name of the killer fish I had in the lake, but it's the one random name from the thread that comes to mind that makes a degree of sense. Bonuses if anyone else picked up that name in their death visions, but I'm guessing not.

Don't have the relevant information on hand to guess Jon's killer. It wasn't me, that's all I can say with much conviction. I was only in Marbury to look for weird things in the lake.

8

Forum Games / Bark Bonnet Stadium

« on: May 09, 2010, 02:58:57 PM »

Sorry Martin, I'm just about to go out the door so I haven't had a chance to read your post in full, but my plan only involves fast killing you tonight if Nikolai flips town, and even then I'm not certain it's optimal not to go for Samuel.

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Forum Games / Fort Mule Tribute

« on: May 09, 2010, 02:46:26 PM »

Oh, and pardon me, I'd forgotten about the cop element of Mei-Fan's role. Any failed fast kill attempt will at least return a cop result, just to concrete things further. Especially in the Samuel case, which may mean it would be worth bouncing the kill off of him tonight even if we mislynch town today (unless he does now conveniently claim he can't protect himself). It'd only be worse in the case he is scum and deflects it, because after his quick lynch we'd end up with the less preferable 2:1 set up (if he's town, then great, it means you've reduced the possible pairs to precisely {Martin, Nathan} somehow, as much as I can't see how that makes sense, and win).

I think it's possibly slightly inferior but, should Nikolai manage to flip town, I'd leave the choice to Mei-Fan to decide which of {Samuel, Nathan} and {Martin, Nathan} is the less likely pair to risk losing to. By which I mean yes, you could instead kill Nathan and risk a {Samuel, Martin} pair, but I think that's far more plausible than the other two possibilities.

10

Forum Games / Plankton Baton Flagship

« on: May 09, 2010, 02:28:29 PM »

First off, this is annoyingly late enough in the day phase, and I apologise for this, however I feel it is important enough to be mentioned. I did target Moses Bike last night, however, my action is not a delayed kill (unless the mod is even more of a bastard than I had expected). Rather, it is a rolecop: I find out their role "ability", but like everything else in this bloody game, it comes wrapped in the usual case of flavour-insanity. However, I am not sure if I am willing to or if I even need to reveal what I found out about Bike's role last night (there have been enough roleclaims so far, and I am unconvinced that cracking the setup wide-open at this point is a good idea, considering what just happened in memes mafia), but if Bike himself or enough of the rest of Town want me to, then I will.

Top thing that comes to mind is that Nikolai claimed to have scanned Kyle on night 2. How delightfully suspicious that looks now.

How/why? I'm a rolecop, and I actually got that precise result. That plus his reasoning for attempting to lynch me D3 were what made me think he was Scum D4 (fortunately, I did not wind up voting him. When it turned out his wagon was started by and an alternate wagon TO Seamus O'ScumExcal's, it was somewhat clear he was Town).

On night 1 you got unclear results on an archivist, but on night 2 you got crystal clear results on a really batshit role? Oh okay.

11

Forum Games / Minx Skull Palette

« on: May 09, 2010, 11:00:30 AM »

And can't for the life of me think what this 'X' could be that should still be protected. Everything you've been dropping light hints to needn't be hidden.

12

Forum Games / Calorie Sprint Aria

« on: May 09, 2010, 10:48:09 AM »

Jack: because that's the point he reread his stuff and asked about it. Not that I inherently trust the rest (and his cover story is about as believable as Seamus's), but that much follows.

Anyway, my conclusion on Mei-Fan Chen is as follows (putting together pieces I've already mentioned):

Samuel scanned him as a vigilante cop. Either Samuel is telling the truth and Mei-Fan is town, or Samuel is lying scum and so is Mei-Fan. Therefore Mei-Fan is not ITP. (short of retard stuff)

Seamus had the docfather power yet played a miller strategy (on day 2, not day 1), which would flounder horribly if used on himself. Thus he planned on protecting fellow scum, heavily, heavily implying that the fast kill was not amongst their ranks. For this and a hundred other circumstantial reasons I've been throwing out, Mei-Fan is not scum.

Therefore I am willing to take Mei-Fan as town with about 99% reliability even with all of the gaffes and huge question marks (truth be told, I was mostly convinced you were scum and expecting the fast kill to belong to Martin, and your claim made me unsettled when it should have instantly sealed the deal), and would strongly suggest against her lynch short of an extraordinary revelation.


I think we can almost force a win for town just on the basis of trusting that myself, Jack and Mei-Fan are town.

Lynch today.
Kill tonight.

Now, assuming that one of those two were scum, you're left in a situation of Jack, Mei-Fan and two others. Let's assume Mei-Fan has the slow kill at that point. You then lynch one and fast kill the other if you're wrong. The hilarity would be if you do get it wrong then the slow kill gets assigned to Jack and then everyone is dead as of a day later, but given that I feel very strongly towards Nathan's innocence, I'm pretty sure it shouldn't come to that.

Holes in this theory: well, top of the list is if one of Jack of Mei-Fan is scum, but I'm already fooled at this point if so. Jack in particular I'll be pissed (ba dum tsshhh) if he ends up scum, because at least Mei-Fan could be the product of a kill restriction and scum brilliance on Excal's part, if Xanatos much.

Next is that we can only be certain of this set up if we lynch scum today. I don't believe in two scum docs given Excal's docfather miller strategy, but better safe than sorry and all that, and with only one scum left they'll be forced out on the kill (I'm sure of this, even if the mod won't confirm it). The one instance of two scum docs that seems plausible is scum rolecop doc ('sup, Sam), given that one does want the rolecop outside of scum's ranks, so it's not entirely implausible.

And yes, naturally the other hole is the risk of hitting two town and losing tonight, but minimising risk and all that.

Anyway, so I'd been saying earlier that the fast killer shouldn't be killing tonight if we hit town on account of it using up a lynch and potentially losing the game based on one person's decision rather than everyone's, but now I think it's better to take that risk because of the shape of the game - good odds of hitting scum, and a 3:1 endgame here is much, much better for town than 2:1. The only difference is that if we do hit town today, then Mei-Fan should kill Martin instead of Samuel. My reasoning for that is as follows: whether we hit scum or not, it's in Samuel's best interests to protect himself. If we do hit scum, though, it's good to try and gut him because he can only defend himself if he's not scum, or even if he can it would be at the expense of the slow kill, which would be observable immediately afterwards. So either he's scum and we win, or he's town and clear (at worst town and can't protect himself, but we've covered that). However, if we hit town we cannot possibly convince Samuel to not defend himself, because townSamuel knows the game is lost if he dies, and scumSamuel would likewise protect himself, knowing there's no way to tell the two apart. However, Martin has now claimed this docproof malarckey. Gutting him should definitely work unless he's lying scum and either he or his scumbuddy protects him. So either he dies and is probably scum, or he doesn't die and definitely is (hey there Samuel and Nathan, in this instance obviously do not protect him [if you're town] for some reason like 'to test if he's lying or not').

Reading over that you'll see it does as ever work out a lot more comfortably assuming we do lynch scum, but go figure. The latter plan fails in the case of a {Samuel, Nathan} team, which admittedly is the only team I could see Nathan existing on, but is still implausible in my eyes. It neatly works out with my own readings of relationships within the game, as I feel that {Samuel, Nikolai} is the only plausible scum pair I can see including Samuel, and sees Samuel taking the bullet only if Nikolai goes down first.

Thoughts? etc. etc.


Putting that to one side, the recurring theme is that it makes a huge difference to lynch scum in the here and now, so go figure that should always be the main order of business. On that note, I still have no reason to stray from Nikolai, especially with the resolution of needing to move out of the box at some point.

13

Forum Games / Shopping Study Factory

« on: May 08, 2010, 11:52:07 PM »

I've stopped giving a toss about my previous ITP worry, as it occurs to me Samuel rolecopping Mei-Fan means he can only be town or scum (if lying gambit), and it's only the fast kill's alignment that really matters for those purposes. If there's a survivor sitting amongst us, good for them.

I'm not sure I can realistically see anything other than a {Nikolai, Martin} pair remaining at this point, really. Again, need to pull back to make sure laziness isn't just leading me/us to loss. I've got another query I need to pass by the mod, but mostly right now I need to sleep.

I'm coming to assume that Nikolai has basically just given up at this point. It wouldn't be an uncommon response.

14

Forum Games / Stocking Goulash Festival

« on: May 08, 2010, 09:38:20 PM »

The more pertinent question would be how scum could possibly know about the miller-removal when he'd only return 'doctor' to rolecops.

15

Forum Games / Wool Smuggler Ghetto

« on: May 08, 2010, 07:44:38 PM »

Oh, pardon me, maybe he'll be able to do his silly claimed protect thing on himself, if allowed. As much as that came with claims of an attached curse if that actually deflected a kill.

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Forum Games / Stool Bazaar Requiem

« on: May 08, 2010, 07:39:41 PM »

Well good. That's not exactly how I saw those claims going,

Samuel: the thing that clears Jack is the fact that he claimed that he had lost his miller status, and then Chad flipped. Especially with the specific claims from the mod that scum millers do not exist, and though he wouldn't rule out the possibility of powers that could fake miller to rolecops, he did say that only millers would respond to Chad's power. Even if scum did somehow find out about Chad's role, Jack made it clear that he'd lost miller status before Chad said anything about having targeted him. It's really, really tight short of something utterly retarded, which is why I'm willing to confirm him and bitch about it later if he is somehow scum.

So no, as usual you're barking up the wrong tree of set up theory for the wrong reasons.

Mei-Fan: leaving aside everything else for now, just how did you know about the existence of the godfather? (or godfather-esque role - I'm not saying that it need not be Seamus's docfather)

Mei-Fan's claim reduces some odds, at least. ScumMei-Fan => scumSamuel. I'm probably going to clear her outright quite yet when I have a few remaining things to consider, but it almost certainly fits into the puzzle as expected.

I'm pretty much sold on scumNikolai, which may well seal scumSamuel as a result. ScumNikolai at least resolves tons of stuff.

In fact, if I can convince myself to clear the fast kill (which could yet be counter-claimed, but I doubt it), I'm reducing the field to {Nikolai, Samuel, Martin}, which is sufficiently few to force the win. (I haven't said much - if anything - about Martin, but his actions since the box initially closed have matched the rough models I'd expect of scum, it's just lower profile since scumMartin has always been covered by plans)

I have two concerns at present. One of which is a potential set up involving a scum fast kill (very unlikely, hopefully on my way to disproving it), and the other relating to my night 1 action. Now that I've convinced myself on scumNikolai I'm pretty sure 4 inside / 6 outside refers to the miller set up, but I've been wondering if 5 outside could specifically refer to an ITP, and working out just where the ITP would realistically live in all of this. I'm hoping just as a survivor. Mostly, I'm back to wondering why the 5/6 outside was left so uncertain.

I also asked the mod to confirm that scum must kill. Well, not quiet that. Something like 'scum must use their primary killing power each night' so that the response would not imply anything about the alignment or even existence of particular killing powers in the game. Annoyingly no, he refused to confirm even that about scum rules. I asked because them forgoing the slow kill leading into a 2:1 would let them win the game (by being the only one to claim the attack). I'm pretty sure that they do have to kill, but better safe than sorry - it's another reason for ensuring 3:1 if possible, as that scum gambit fails there too.

So yes, I'm pretty hot for Samuel taking the fast kill this evening, given the lack of a bulletproof claim for defence. Bonus points for it tying Mei-Fan down just in case of the aforementioned scum pairing.

17

Forum Games / Ginger Discotheque Extraction

« on: May 08, 2010, 11:06:23 AM »

Jack: I don't know scum's secret, I just know that Samuel knows it somehow.

Regarding the people left in the game:

I'm super duper cleared by about a million different ways now that the slow kill's hit me again.

I'm willing to lose the game if Jack is scum, given how the mod himself basically went out of his way to clear him. Maybe there's some retarded scum way around what's happened to simulate all of the effects, but if there is I'm first in queue to whine after the game ends. He could theoretically be ITP, but given his position and there being two scum left we really don't have the time to chase ITP unless they wave their hands at us. Also, even if he is ITP (I don't believe it) it doesn't matter too much, given that he's all but guaranteed to pick up the slow kill tomorrow and out of the picture anyway.

I'm actually fairly happy with Nathan. I bounced a bunch of ideas off the wall during the night phase, and came to the conclusion that two town revivers was actually about the right balance. The concern started that maybe if two revivers survived to night 3 then it might be too unbalanced in town's favour even with no scum dead by the end of day 2, but the conclusion is reached that the only purpose of two of them existing is to improve the odds of one them being alive by then. Their options for revival are limited to the day 1 and 2 lynches, any fast kills, and the one slow kill that's happened by that point. Exactly one of these is likely to be useful for town (and yet another point towards the fast kill being town), and that's without Nathan's claimed limitation of only being able to choose slow kill targets. So that works out. If instead one of the revivers is scum, then the expected net gain for town is negative, and that's in a position of town being down. So, uh, no. Not with four scum. Even assuming something crazy like scumNathan telling the truth about his restriction and was forced to revive the first scum kill, then I'm pretty sure they'd be using the first slow kill on rolefishing, given the whole 'come back as vanilla' thing. Also, with Samuel having rolecopped him, assuming scumNathan then you either have scumSamuel and/or two doctors on scum's side. I certainly don't believe in the latter, as, even ignoring any sort of potential balance concerns, I can't see docfather Seamus pulling the miller strategy with a secondary protective role around.

So no, given that no one counter claimed in the first instance, I would not advocate or support voting for Nathan unless there is major evidence to the contrary. I consider {Nathan, Samuel} to be the only scum team involving Nathan to be possible at all.

So, two out of {Ronald, Samuel, Nikolai, Martin}. All the easier if we push the fast kill claim through, you see? Counter claim from scum will fail from the real one killing the fake one overnight. Guess I would have been wrong about that yesterday.

As it stands, there's still the possibility of the innards of the box - {Ronald, Martin} being the remaining scum. It's kind of part of why I want the fast kill claimed all the more now. I definitely want the two of you (that's you, Martin and Ronald) to admit to not being the fast killer if you're not, and if you are to wait for the other to anti-claim first. Failure to do this within about 24 hours or so will result in me assuming you're scum. There's still the outside chance of the fast kill coming from outside the box, but I hope not. If it is, there's still no chance for scum inside the box to fake claim the kill after the other guy anti-claims due to the real fast killer then going lol no.

Assuming we do bust out of the box, it's all about Nikolai. Nikolai, who has played a scummy game among scummy games. Playing the exact same way that he's played scum forever, just extreme. Being scum also neatly resolving my night 1 information. Yeah.

I want on that train. L-2 right out of the gate whatever, I feel good enough about it.

##Vote: Nikolai Kolmogorov

Obviously don't put it up to L-1. I'm just being greedy and selfish here. I in particular want to open the box before being in any way committed to this, not to mention that everyone should be weighing in generally.


Hey guys watch me direct a night action, hell yeah: hey Mr. Fast Killer, whichever you might be, here are my thoughts, on the very early assumption that we end up lynching Nikolai today. If he's town, then obviously don't use the power (unless someone has counter-claimed you). If he's scum and does have some titbit in his role information about sending out fake results, then you probably still want to stay your hand, as killing removes a lynch from town. If he's scum and doesn't flip such information, then I think it's probably worth killing Samuel overnight. Odds are we win, and if not then it leaves us in a better shape for the final day - you'll have removed a lynch from town, but Samuel's would probably be inevitable and a 3:1 finale is more in our favour than 2:1. 2:1 would result in either the slow kill victim being casting vote, or scum fake claiming slow kill and the third person casting the deciding vote - pretty much the same but with trap potential. Scum can't fake claim slow kill in 3:1, as we either lynch scum and win or lynch the slow kill and end up in an additional day of 2:1 (due to no slow kill going off that night) with scum getting immediately lynched due to lying, thus 3:1 would be a slow kill claim guaranteed !scum, and give us better odds of picking out the scum from the remaining three.

Sure this directs a kill, but I'm only directing it in the case of there being exactly one scum left, who'll have his hands full acting out the slow kill. Unless gee, Samuel suddenly conveniently claims to be bulletproof too.

Pretty sure this only fails if the fast killer is scum, for which my answer to that is: no. It also has potential to fail if the fast kill is outside of the box, but resolving that the fast kill is inside the box is a pre-condition for my vote on Nikolai anyway.


Personally, I'd still wager on Samuel being town, but I'm still going to cover all the possibilities I can. I'd also then remind myself that at least a fair chunk of why I consider him to be town is due to him ferrying the votes on to Ethan in day 3 and related events, which fail if Nikolai is scum. In fact, if Nikolai is town then I'd just about wipe the odds of him being scum off the board and devote my legacy beyond the grave for the second time for the scum pair to be {Ronald, Martin}. Then again, this is part of why I very much expect Nikolai to be scum regardless of Samuel's alignment.


I want to wait for the fast kill gambit to go through before discussing the possibilities further. Combine that with the amount I've written already, and I'm going to stop here for now.

18

Forum Games / Transparent Galaxy Syndrome

« on: May 08, 2010, 08:53:50 AM »

I've been slow killed again. I guess scum are really scared of me for some reason. I know I'm confirmed townie and all this time, but I was vaguely expecting it to go Jack's way before me. Oh well. The flavour text was pretty hilarious this time, mostly for being mostly the same as the first time, and most of the rest of it acknowledging the similarity. I assume/hope Snowfire will be releasing all of the flavour text to us at the end of the game, as massive as that will be (my books alone will take up tons of space).

Again, I'd quite like to set up the fast killer to claim. Kyle's death doesn't actually imply quite as much as I'd like it to (notably it could be cunning due to leading into LYLO and forcing thinking outside the box now), but as Martin's already mentioned, Seamus's role basically seals the deal for me. The thing he's forgetting in this is that Seamus claimed miller - why the hell would he do that if he had any intention of protecting himself and risking flipping the wrong sanity to a cop? As I [at least believe I] have been saying, I was in full support of using the fast kill once more, due to it effectively giving us one more lynch. I'm sure that a town fast killer is perfectly aware of potential LYLO being dependent on him accidentally killing town tonight.

(I also have reason to believe that the fast killer isn't ITP due to balance issues and it probably being a tedious role to play, but I'm not going to force that argument)

Regarding Kyle. From his pleas towards the end of the day, it seems clear that he did have some information, but I should point out that my role as Archivist wasn't as good as it sounded: I got to choose from a selection of books, with differing results. Some would be useless (send me RP insane), some would give me information about people's dark secrets and only 'at least four' would result in information about the game. Although it was implied that you could kinda-sorta work out which was which, I got lucky, and it's entirely plausible that Kyle did not. I'm surprised he didn't consider the odds of him being fast killed, but what can you do.

Given I'm about to die and it can't affect anything, I can confirm that in this instance I'm vanilla, and have no new information since night 2. The flavour is that it's because my books were stolen/impounded, but I'm pretty sure this would have happened even if Kyle had died before my own initial demise. I imagine at least most of you will have guessed this already given the Hellmosquito's flip, but figured there was no point in volunteering this information in the hopes it might tip the balance on the scum kill, which it may have done.

Top thing that comes to mind is that Nikolai claimed to have scanned Kyle on night 2. How delightfully suspicious that looks now.

It also comes to mind that the 4 inside / 5/6 outside thing would still be resolved with millers if Nikolai is scum. The fact that he's been acting so damn suspicious from the start of the game throws him right to the top for me, even with it still being possible that the box could still be tied up neatly.

More in a bit.

19

Forum Games / Jellyfish Daisy Balls

« on: May 06, 2010, 05:05:38 PM »

Even less time. Definitely the last from me this day.

Having pangs over a potential {Ronald, Kyle, Martin} or {Samuel, Kyle, Nikolai} pairings that make me reconsider my vote, but more a warning that my vote will be on Kyle pretty much for sure tomorrow if we don't hit scum now. Nikolai acting so bloody scummily is the primary thing against me tying that ribbon.

20

Forum Games / Robot Coastguard Trail

« on: May 06, 2010, 01:37:08 PM »

No time to talk properly. Will probably phrase things badly.

Was leaning towards Seamus anyway, just annoying that I haven't made my positions clear. The votes inside the box tending towards Kyle also point me towards Seamus in response. Kyle has been horrible, but has done a few things that wurgle my trains of thought that would place him as scum. Bussing is inevitable in this position, but I sense the desire for scum to try and push this to LYLO tomorrow.

Weak response to gambit needs further pondering, but early take on it is that scum inside the box would want to play it very low profile so that the fast killer doesn't get to claim safely. Not sure about the ribbon yet, but more comfortable about gunning inside the box right now.

##Vote: Seamus

That's it from me for today. Day 5 will be better due to weekend, on the [relatively safe] assumption that I'll be alive for it. Expect Seamus to turn up in the dying hours and claim fast kill to cause panic. Would be annoying if he actually is, but too late for me now.

21

Forum Games / Gothic Lolita Propaganda

« on: May 05, 2010, 11:42:07 PM »

Potential LYLO is always shaky for role claims, especially when it's been stated that it's really on the far side of potential, especially when the fast killer would be fairly certain that he could always ensure one more day for town simply by not killing that night if everything else went tits up. I don't see everyone else falling over each other to claim yesterday. That's without considering the vulnerable position whoever it is was in, the fact that the prevailing winds yesterday were that the fast kill was scum, and the plausibility of a counter claim even if that was explained away.

So no, I'm unconvinced. I can't see what they'd have expected to gain by revealing then.

22

Forum Games / Sunred Wing Distortion

« on: May 05, 2010, 09:31:58 PM »

Random minor side note that doesn't really matter: the slow kill can't suddenly have become fast, else we'd be in potential LYLO now. Lynch + fast kill + night 3 slow kill + night 4 new and improved faster slow kill all on townies would see tomorrow as a 3:3 scum victory. Only exception to that would be if Peyton's lying about being slow killed, but no, I don't believe that for a second.

23

Forum Games / Dash Pose Euphoria

« on: May 05, 2010, 09:15:20 PM »

Okay, maybe as much as two hours to catch up to pace. I'll try and order everything, but mayhaps not.

I'm really having trouble not just succumbing to hubris and following the path of least resistance. It's just so easy to take Sam's plays as townie, and then any other holes can just be conveniently blamed on set up should they come up. Trouble is I shouldn't be relying on scum being so thoroughly caged. It makes the world of difference if we catch scum today or not, as drawing more information before LYLO really ties up the Sam+ scenario a lot tighter if we do, among other things.

Anyhow, here's a gambit I've been turning over in my head. May be good, may have holes in it. I'll at least put it on the table.

It doesn't take much mental legwork to work out that the fast killer is almost certainly amongst the same set of four people that are taking the most flak today. Maybe you just haven't thought about it before. How certain are we of the fast kill being !scum? I'm strongly inclined to it given the 11:4 start (four scum is over the odds for a game of fifteen already, giving them a second kill would be silly), and the Pietro attack removes the remaining reasonable doubts that maybe they'd be allowed it because it's massively nerfed by all of the bulletproofs and doctors. I also think it would be massively frustrating role to play if it's an ITP Serial Killer, given how little it would be able to play properly given all of the nerfing, so I'm happier than others to disregard it as a strong possibility. Even some sort of ITP Serial Killer Survivor theory doesn't stand up given they could have just backed scum to an easy win.

My proposed gambit is for the fast killer to claim now.

Hear me out.

The exact mechanism for this gambit, if accepted, would be for the three who aren't the fast killer to admit to not being the fast killer, probably in any order. This would be in case the fast killer has a drawback - say, only two shots - that scum could safely counter-claim against. After the fast killer then claims, we've basically narrowed the possibilities further, and definitely then have a night phase in which to check the claim out. If the fast kill is scum then they won't want to claim given how easily and immediately it will tie them down. If the fast kill is town then scum will not want to counter claim as if they do then we just leave them both alive and let the real one kill the fake one overnight (although, really, if you're the fast killer and town then please make things easier for us and don't claim until the other three have anti-claimed, given the aforementioned possibilities).

But wait, I hear you cry, if we out the fast killer then scum will just get him next! Well. For one thing, Ethan's death didn't speed their kill up at all, so the fast killer'd be dead at best at the end of night 5. Scum have already got two confirmed townies to deal with, so frankly them having an extra 'must kill' target doesn't really shake our boat much. Also, considering our assumed position of 7:3, the fast kill's only got one guaranteed use left for us, so two nights would already be more than enough, even assuming an unfortunate bulletproof hit on the first attempt. It'd buy us more time if it does hit scum, but then if we do hit scum with it then we're already cruising to a win anyway.

Also, given day 3 was potential LYLO I really don't believe the fast killer is out of shots, so I want him made accountable, so he does then follow the script one way or another. Not that anyone should direct the kill in any way whatsoever, of course.

Coming sort of full circle, I want to catch scum today so tomorrow isn't LYLO either. Adding the fast kill tonight to our lynch, that gives us two shots at achieving this. This could mostly still happen without the fast killer revealing themselves, but this method reduces the possibilities in general, and stops the possibility of losing the fast killer in the meantime.

Thoughts?

So far as I see it the worst that can happen is for the fast kill to be scum's, they just plain don't claim it. No loss. Even if it was Ethan's (except no, really don't believe that). No sign of any roleblocking or power redirecting or any of that sort of crap that would have stopped me from suggesting this gambit. Entirely willing to believe that there's something horribly wrong with it that I just haven't seen, though.

Recommend a speedy turn around on it either way, though, given I want it done and dusted by the end of today, and don't want it to be a mess at day's end. Would prefer the three of the four who aren't the fast killer to be anti-claiming with more than 12 hours left.


Speaking of which, except for a check up in a few hours I won't really be back before the day ends. I'll do what I can to get on in approximately 17 hours from now, but it will be just to get my vote down, pretty much. Go figure I've managed to waste all of my promised free time thinking through and typing up this stupid gambit and still haven't actually read up on people. I've got just about enough time to read through a chunk, but no more to actually comment on anything.

24

Forum Games / Crab Bongo Medallion

« on: May 04, 2010, 11:34:44 PM »

Oh, if it's not been completely accepted here yet, then yes, there are pretty much definitely three more scum to find, for a total of four. I'd worked out from the sidelines that it'd be game over from 11 people if you lynched the reviver (very specifically, so no one would be revived that night), and the fast kill and slow kill both took out townies, leaving 4:4 left for a scum win. It's no longer LYLO of any form, which makes sense given that a mislynch plus two townie deaths at night still only puts it at 4:3. Scum would need way too much power to have potential LYLO yesterday with only three.

Doesn't quite clear Nathan on its own, as the other way to simulate no townie revival would be with a scum reviver (and any mislynch), but I just don't get the angle at all.

The big issue is that the game does seem to be wrapped up in a pretty ribbon - four lynches left in the game for four obvious people. Even more so when people inside of the box agree with this. So yeah, of course I start by trying to unwrap that. I'm still getting to grips with playing with holes in the box, but I keep on running into issues with scumSamuel (largely instrumental in most theories outside of the box) - it involves scum gambits that are horribly paced, horribly weighted and massively flawed, at least without knowledge of the game set up. It's like sure, maybe lots of the first level problems I can put my finger on (like, I don't think Samuel's been playing scummily, and was instrumental in getting Ethan lynched yesterday) can be explained by bussing, trade offs or generally playing a long-term gambit on Samuel (a relative newcomer at that - even if he's the godfather I'd have trouble believing a scum team strategy that involves him being alone and perfecting the end game) making it to the end, but it still only works assuming a long list of powers known and unknown don't screw them over in the meantime.

I'm pretty sure there are people in the box who need frying. I'm just not certain about that ribbon.



As townSamuel => townNikolai, we also have scumNikolai => scumSamuel. There is, I believe, no point in lynching Nikolai ahead of Samuel. If anyone is absolutely sure of Nikolai, then they need to convince themselves of Samuel as well and if anyone gets that far, then definitely vote Samuel over Nikolai. It is a strictly superior move, short of something crazy like weird role concerns. Not that I'm personally advocating voting Samuel, but voting for Nikolai here is a waste of time. Ignore that, Martin's mod quote from hours ago reminds me that there is a possibility for {townSamuel, scumNikolai} that renders this faulty. I'd say the situation is contrived, but then so goes a lot of the set up, and passing off as fake miller to scans in this game would be useful enough that I can't disregard it at a game build level.

Oh, and whatever has happened to the fast kill? I still haven't read the posts in full yet, but I didn't think I saw anyone claim to have taken that bullet for last night.



Yeah, guess it'll be tomorrow evening where I get to actually be useful, rather than just this faff without an actual read.

25

Forum Games / Lymph Wisdom Granule

« on: May 04, 2010, 07:18:33 PM »

Still don't have much time on my hands, and it will be like this until Saturday, most likely. Might be able to follow up with a proper (re)read and thoughts later this evening, else I really ought to have the time to catch up in about 24 hours from now.

Personally, I would have been willing to believe that scum miller would be a perfectly sensible role to exist given the set up, but if the mod will insist it doesn't exist then great, there goes the last thread of doubt on Jack.

Peyton I never had a problem with barring the tl;dr-scapades. Never thought his role was overpowered, especially once the slow-kill came up scum.

Nathan I'm willing to clear all bar a huge gambit involving him and Samuel, and even then that would be a horribly unnecessary risk. A scum reviver would have been so much better off raising Ethan to waste town an extra day, or otherwise just not raising anyone, either of which he could have gotten away with unless he was expecting to get hit by a rolecop or similar. This assumes no counter-claim, but go figure no. Not completely convinced, though.

But yes, there are now enough details on the board to confirm that townSamuel => townNikolai.

Peyton: so far as your plans go, I'm certainly far, far more interested in the other four than from picking from within the three. I'd actually forgotten about Seamus, who had been shooting up the list as I was turning in my grave.

I'm also wondering about this weird paired powers thing that's emerging. Revivers and rolecops, and possibly even doctors, cops, millers and bulletproofs. As much as everything that's happened as shrieked to keep me away from set up meta.


Anyway.

The night 2 action. That's the important part. Go figure I don't have a night 3 action to report about.

The core of it first: Samuel knows scum's secret, one way or another.

Which would of course work out if he is scum, hence my asking for his flavour in a way that implied I knew something about his flavour and he'd have to tell the truth of it even if he is scum. I don't think he is (if he is, scum's gambit has been so heavily pushed towards making him untouchable, and risking it failing so badly, especially if anything happens to Nikolai, say, even a rolecop or similar), and in which case I believe he doesn't inherently know that he knows the secret, but better safe than sorry. I haven't digested his story well enough to think about it, but I'm guessing the monster in a chapel thing could be it? I'd certainly expect it to be the confession of one of the people along the way or the like.

Not that I'm sure how much use it can be even if we can extract it. Likewise still don't know what the information from the first night was supposed to mean, other than that 'inside' clearly was intended as number of scum. Millers seems less likely now, and it looks rather unlikely to mean ITP on top.


My position is still pretty ragged given that I still have lots of reading to do, but you'll forgive me for playing to my own pace when I'm stretched for time and confirmed town. I'd mostly be down for voting Kyle or Seamus at the moment, so you know, but will at least have the grace of getting myself back up to speed before accusing them of days past. As much as Kyle has already confused me today by writing himself into a trap, which I'm rarely able to reconcile as being scum.