One minor, very WIFOMy point against Andrews comes from O'Malley's:
Andrews quickly refutes this, of course; he hadn't actually made such a slip. The reason this is interesting is it makes more sense for O'Malley to be confused if he had reason to believe Andrews had slipped, because Andrews was scum, than if Andrews was town.
Uh. Excal lied about me, which makes us more likely to be scumbuddies? Huh? Maybe I'm missing something, but the only way that looks bad for me is if scum are more likely to post specious arguments against
each other than against town. That's kinda back-asswards.
More seriously we have the end of day 3. Here he strongly implies Hayles will be top of his scumlist; then here, no mention of Hayles at all, he's on Handley, with the added irony that it's for dropping his case on his #1 suspect.
What I said before on Kyle before stands, but his contributions in Day 3 have been mostly solid; the only one I can find a hole to poke in is his most recent post, which is one very abbreviated case on Ethan's play over the entire game, followed by a list of "hey you, say something" lines. Reading townier than he was before, but there's only so much a day of good play can do to erase two days of bad.
Nathan: Gotta agree with the crowd here; the only substantive analysis he's done is on roles. Getting bogged down in flavor and roles is a problem the whole game has had, to one degree or another, but he's been the worst. I can't knock him for posting frequency or shallowness of content, just the focus of that content but it's something.
..and now I'm getting yelled at to get my ass out the door. More later tonight or early tomorrow morning (gotta be on the road by eightish), probably on Hayles from the way things are going.
I said I'd
probably put together a post about Hayles, because he was gathering votes. Never said he was my top suspect.
Kyle still looked worst to me; I said Day 2 that I'd vote for him over Pietro and Hellsnake both if it stood a chance of making any difference, and noted in that post that everything I said about him on Day 2 stood. Like I said in the subsequent wall-o-text about Kyle, when I read more, I still found him to look scummier than anyone else, and devoted what little time and sanity I had to putting together a case against him. Yes, I ended up as the only one voting him, but when I made that post, there were two votes on Ethan to my one on Kyle. That's not exactly an overwhelming majority.
End of day 4 also looks bad; Andrews umms and aahs about O'Malley right up to here, before finally voting him very late on.
Given the choice between somebody I'd suspected since Day 1 and somebody who had only gathered serious suspicion that day, it was a tough choice to give up on my long-standing desire to see Sopko swing and instead lynch somebody else. How does this not make sense? My "umms and aahs" about O'Malley were one post where I laid out what I saw as the evidence for his scumminess, another post where I said I'd probably vote for him but I wanted to be sure and make the decision while awake (again, didn't want to give up on Sopko just like that; can you blame me?), and a third post where, hey, I voted for him like I said I probably would. Also, if I'm scum, that was an opportunity to tie up Kyle and Excal and potentially send the game into 5:3 LYLO the next day, just by voting for somebody I'd been pushing to lynch since Day 2, and had been suspicious of since my first post.
On nightkills:
The reason not to fastkill anyone tonight if we mislynch is simple: from all evidence, today we have five townies alive and two scum. The only way to go from 5:2 to a loss is if three townies die and no scum do. That's one from the mislynch, one from the slowkill and one from the fastkill. If there's no fastkill tonight, we are mathematically certain to live to lynch another day.
...but now, working it out again, I see where my mistake was in that list of contingencies. If we mislynch today and tomorrow, we lose anyway, and the fastkill can't save us. With 3:2 alive, if we mislynch it becomes 2:2, and even if the nightkill hits scum, the slowkill (presumably) kicks in and makes it 1:1 the next day.
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