Erk does double if you use 3.5 as the threshold instead of 4, which you should, since there's no way to tell where it actually lies in the (3..4] range in-game.
Also doubles if you factor in laguz transformation boosts at all, though I understand why you don't. I should think more about that one myself.
I've never been sure whether to do 3.5 or 4, honestly... What do most people do here? Hmm. Okay. I'll go with 3.5 here.
In that case, Erk doubles and... 4HKOs, it looks like? Sanaki gets two shots in regardless of whether or not she goes first or last. 47% chance of Flare in that time.
Looking at hit/evade... looks like Erk has more evade because FE7 enemies suck more. or even assuming numbers more skewed towards bosses, the gap isn't that close. So yeah, probably not enough to tip that 47% over to 50%+.
Hmm, thinking on it, with non-halfshifted stats, Erk's damage is probably a 5HKO. So Sanaki gets 3 shots in if she goes first. Should be enough. If Erk goes first...
[22:40:13] <@SwornToEmo> I'd assume Erk goes first if he wants, buuut...
[22:40:33] <@SwornToEmo> Well, even if he does, Sanaki can opt not to attack him round 2.
[22:40:46] <@SwornToEmo> So stalemate, and Sanaki may have won round 1 due to Flare going off.
[22:41:12] <+Sanaki|RageAgainstTheMajin> Does Sanaki have any valid action she can do on that second turn because I don't allow null comm--SHOVE?
SHOVE HYPE.
So yeah, think I'm keeping that vote there. It's certainly close though.
