Season 49, Week 6

[superaielman]

Team Ghaleon (Ghaleon, Nel, Marle, Anna) versus Team Lavos (Lavos, Id, Kornell, Cleo)

H/G: Wren, Beatrix, Kato, Seymour, Nel, Id
M/H: Poo, Kevin, Borgan, Zapdos, Marle, Kornell
L/M: Darc, Sprigg, Lucia, Florina, Anna, Cleo

[superaielman]

Team Lavos. Tenatively think they can blitz this.

H/G: Wren, Beatrix, Kato, Seymour,  Id

Wren: 3-0
Id: 2-1
Seymour: 2-2
Beatrix: 1-3
Kato: 1-3

Wren beat everyone but Id (Abstained, leaning Wren). Id torched Kato/Beatrix, got crushed by Seymour. Seymour torched Kato, got owned by Beatrix's magic and elemental defenses. Kato beat Beatrix.

This pool is a complete mess. I think Kato's done in Godlike, but I have nooooooooooo idea otherwise about how the pool will break down.

M/H:  Kevin, Borgan, Marle, Kornell

Kevin>Kornell>Marle>Borgan. Very straightforward for me. Borgan and Poo are likely downgrading.

L/M: Darc, Sprigg, Lucia, Florina, Anna, Cleo

Darc>Florina>Anna=Cleo>>>Sprigg>>>Lucia

Darc 2HKOs Florina with Sword of Awakeing and likely survives two Florina turns. Florina beats the rest, is happy that flying weapons don't hit her weakness. Everyone beats the scrubs. Sprigg fails marginally less than Lucia. Sprigg/Lucia both downgrade.

[Dhyerwolf]

Team Ghaleon (Ghaleon, Nel, Marle, Anna) versus Team Lavos (Lavos, Id, Kornell, Cleo)- Gut says team Lavos (Cleo and Kornell has wrack up MT damage quickly), but team Ghaleon has two healers that need to be knocked out.

H/G: Wren, Beatrix, Kato, Seymour, Nel, Id

Wren is at best heal locked by Beatrix, unsure on Kato (might allow some part of the death combo), laughs at Seymour post barrier, is likely outhealed by Nel, and Id smashed with speed.
Beatrix 2HKOs Kato more quickly, crashes against Seymour Mdef, OHKOes Nel more quickly, and is OHKOed by Id.
Kato beats Seymour by constant elemental messing, statuses Nel, and 2HKOes Id.
Seymour is outhealed by the elemental halving quicker Nel, beats Id.

Kato 3-1
Id 3-2
Beatrix 3-2
Seymour 2-3
Nel 2-3
Wren 1-3

M/H: Poo, Kevin, Borgan, Zapdos, Marle, Kornell

Poo...feel strange might just be nulled if Kevin heals, I guess? Unsure. Beats Borgan, confused on Zapdos, Loses to Marle and Kornell
Kevin beats the rest of the field, I'd imagine.
Borgan just loses.
Zapdos...don't think he can 2HKO Kornell without 2 Thunders. Except the second one misses! Loses to Marle too.

Kevin 4-0
Kornell 4-1
Marle 3-2
Poo 1-2
Zapdos 1-3
Borgan 0-5

L/M: Darc, Sprigg, Lucia, Florina, Anna, Cleo

Cleo should be everyone. Florina might be close, but Cleo is faster/has MT so Florina can't even get Javelin counters.
Darc is marginally above average speed with solid ITE physicals. That takes care of everyone else.
Lucia loses to all. Sprigg included!
Florina beats Anna

Cleo 4-0
Sprigg 1-0
Darc 3-1
Florina 2-2
Anna 1-3
Lucia 0-5


Abstain on Sprigg on every non-Lucia match. Headache.

[Dark Holy Elf]

H/G: Wren, Beatrix, Kato, Seymour, Nel, Id

Let's see.

Wren wins a resource war with Beatrix, loses one with Nel. Spoils Seymour with Barrier + fire resistance + possibly everything resistance, but it hardly matters, he has NE magic while Seymour shifts to water. Spoils Kato with status immunity, bwahaha at allowing a combo attack off of parts that have like have less HP than the likes of Lambda. Maybe I'd allow it until Kato takes that much damage. Beats Id due to neither being 2HKOed nor 3-2ed.

4-1. Wow.

Beatrix probably spoils Seymour with some equipment nonsense, speed, and NE magic. Statused by Kato, statused by Nel (or out-resourced), should be able to evade/smash her way past Id though.

2-3

Kato statuses puny PCs (except Wren). Kato gets owned by bosses. Guess Id probably manages the 3-2 here? I'm never sure where his speed is. Dhyer voting otherwise makes me pause...

2-3

Seymour beats Kato I -think-, although Kato has an argument for being faster... hmm. Granted, if the water howl looks like water and not ice Kato is fucked. Seymour beats Id because of Id ether, loses to Nel slooowly because she walls his entire element set, so she wins on doubles.

2-3. It'll be hilarious if he downgrades.

Id 2-3, Nel 3-2. Oh dear god what a mess.

M/H: Kevin, Borgan, Zapdos, Marle, Kornell

Kevin SMASH everyone! ... wait, his first turn damage isn't that amazing and Marle has status he can't block? Not so much statusing there I suppose. 3-1

Marle/Borgan is interesting, since Borgan has that MP drain... but it faces Marle's mdur, and she gets a good headstart on the slugfest. Leaning her. She beats Zapdos with status as well, I think? Hmm. Zapdos opens with Agility, Marle confuses, hastes, starts trying to inflict Stop. First attempt gives Zapdos one free turn, but he can't do much with it. If he doesn't open with Agility she confuse-haste-locks him. 3-1, and hilariously she deserves to be 4-0 to me.

Kornell pretty much gets owned by this field. Except Borgan who just sucks. 1-3.

Zapdos beats people who suck. 2-2

Borgan sucks the most, though the only person he has a chance against is the pool champ! 0-4

L/M: Sprigg, Lucia, Florina, Cleo

Cleo > Florina >>>>> Sprigg > Lucia

[Clear Tranquil]

Don't allow Beatrix the FF9 elemental blockers then NEB? (ice protection > Ice Daggers/freeze status)

[Dark Holy Elf]

She only halves ice. That's not good enough here given the length of the fight.

[superaielman]

Blind/Reflect on Nel doesn't tip things in that case? Can't remember how good FF9 blind was, but it's not a status SO fighters are fond of in general.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Hmm. Blind shouldn't tilt much. Freeze is still hitting quickly enough. Reflect I'd forgotten about, if Beatrix can Reflect then 2HKO with Shock, she wins if Freeze is not turn 2 against her and Nel goes second. Freeze not being turn 2 would depend on both whether ice resist affects it (CT, do you know?) and how good Beatrix's evade is (looks like about 19-20%?). Though she also has to watch for Nel just 2HKOing her with Divine Wrath... depends what KMs Nel sets, since she can't get her awesome damage and her awesome freeze at the same time. Hum.

[Sir Donald 3.2]

Middle/Heavy Pool:  Zapdos and Poo vs Marle

There's one thing you guys seem to be forgetting in the Marle v Zapdos fight:  Marle's paper-thin Phys Def.  Zapdos has Drill Peck in both forms and can put it to good use here.  Also, when Marle Hastes, Zapdos can counter with Agility.  A 50% Status can't save Marle once Agility kicks in.  She can do it once in the brief period when she has the turn edge.  But after that, and on Turn 1 in fact, it's all about Provoke.  (Ok, 2 things.)

I guess, ultimately, it all comes down to a couple of coin-flips per form:
For RBY:  Critical Hits bypass all Stat-modification Multipliers.  Would Provoke's X.25 count as such?
For FRLG:  Would a Status that Stops an ATB Timer also stop the turn count for Light Screen?

And, furthermore on both, can Provoke and Stop be applied simultaneously?

Basically, since Zapdos has the form choice (I get the sense that the difference between the SNES and the DS numbers is insignificant) and All 3 Coinflips would have to go Marle's way to avoid her being Heal-Locked by Drill Peck, I'm leaning Zapdos here. 

As for the other guy with Ice Magic, Poo goes first and they're both Turn-Based, so I only see the order changing if Zapdos uses Agility, and neither can Double.  So it's a 6-of-1/half-dozen-the-other situation.  Besides, Zappy can accomplish the same thing with thunderwave in his FRLG form.
Vs FRLG:  The shaft in SpecDef is enough to allow Freeze Gamma to power past Pressure before he hits Turn 5 (where T-Wave causes an Auto-Miss.)
Vs RBY:  The higher MDef means it'll take longer, but without Pressure and T-Wave, Poo has the resources to pull though.  And Agility is just a wasted free turn here.

Poo wins over both forms.

Ironically enough, even with Poo having higher relative speed than Marle, he:
A:  Can't change that speed, or his opponent's
B:  Doesn't seem to resist Brainshock
C:  is up against an opponent who does, and
D:  Has a VERY Bad Physical w/o the Sword of Kings.  And that's BEFORE Provoke.

And isn't Magic Durability in EB roughly equal to HP?  Meaning that anyone not named Ness is below-average to some degree or other.  (Poo just happens to be only Slightly.  But it's enough...)

Marle wins here.

Zapdos, Poo, & Marle:  1-1

[SnowFire]

Brought it up in chat...  normally I allow and also force form-chains for people with legal form-chains (actually quite important for bosses with wussy 1st forms against good buffers!  I think Profound Darkness could/should have lost a few matches thanks to this...).  This means Lavos is in his first form (well, not the shell, but 1/2), which I initially thought was a handicap...  but it does have initiative Laser Beams / Doors of Doom, as Dark Holy Elf pointed out.  It's a good 3HKO, and that should be enough to turn Id's opening turn into death for Nel rather than wounded Nel (important, since I voted Nel over Id...).  Cleo and Anna do whatever (Buff / hurt Ghaleon probably?), and to me at least Kornell can easily smash up Marle on his first turn due to allowing his parts for Megaton Punch -> Kornell Buster.  Ghaleon spams his best MT, meaning probably Tornado - > Rock & Roll?  Id dies, Lavos' hands die, but Cleo and Kornell live.  Anna gets finished off by Lavos probably (Shadow Doom Blaze if he can use it right away, which I don't think he can, Obstacle if nothing else), Kornell and Cleo beat up on Ghaleon, Ghaleon finishes off Kornell and Cleo (I think Lavos1 lives - remember that it took 1/10 damage or something from Ghaleon's first attack), but the general point is that even if he Chaos Shields up before finishing off Lavos1, he's got only 1PCHP left or thereabouts, so Lavos2 wipes him out.

H/G: Wren, Beatrix, Kato, Seymour, Nel, Id
Beatrix...  coin flip against Kato (does the status happen on the first turn?), probably dies to Seymour, definitely loses to Nel, and definitely beats Id. 1.5-2.5
Kato vs. Seymour...  so according to Dhyerwolf Kato resists elements?  Ugh, no idea, but still leaning Seymour.  Coinflip vs. Nel & Beatrix, easily kills Id. 
Seymour loses to Nel but beats Id.
I voted for Nel over Id.

So yeah, I'd see Id as staying down and maybe Nel replacing Kato, though Nel already lost to Id reducing her chances of that.

In Middle: Looks like Kornell and Marle crush most everyone, though I guess Marle loses to Kevin.

[Dark Holy Elf]

I think Profound Darkness could/should have lost a few matches thanks to this...

Profound Darkness has no wussy form. She has near-OHKO damage throughout. The main things she dislikes about being forced into her first form is the lack of dispel, and that she has no physical (her brutal damage there being the magical Shadowbreath)... which incidentally is what allowed Kyogre to beat her. So yeah, it already did cost her, not sure what you're talking about. <_<

[Clear Tranquil]

Ah, thought Beatrix could equip Madain's Ring.

whether ice resist affects it (CT, do you know?)

Don't think it does, no. At least it works fine on the different Executioner types in general (except the ones on Styx1) and they tend to come with all sorts of elemental resists. More of my experience comes from Peppita using Frozen Daggers but yeah same thing.

So yeah if Nel gets in Beatrix's face chaining SR Ice Daggers freeze is definitely going to score at some point, blind or no. SO3 status rates are nitoriously accurate against opponents with no/low SA resists.