Season 53, Week 5 - Zophar and Xorn: the new Sesame Street top stars.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Godlike:

Zophar (Lunar:EBC) vs Xorn (G3)

Heavy:

Demi (PS4) vs Kary (FF1)

Middle:

Axl (MMXCM) vs Yulie Ahtreide (WA4)

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jin Uzuki (XS2)

[superaielman]

Godlike:

Zophar (Lunar:EBC) vs Xorn (G3)

Heavy:

Demi (PS4) vs Kary (FF1)- Demi needs way too many doubles to win this.

Middle:

Axl (MMXCM) vs Yulie Ahtreide (WA4)

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jin Uzuki (XS2)

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike:

Zophar (Lunar:EBC) vs Xorn (G3)- For the record, think Zophar also has no problems with Jenna by my view either!

Heavy:

Demi (PS4) vs Kary (FF1)-  Unsure if DoS Kary would 2HKO here (She had...70% damage? 75%? Just not the near OHKO of the original...I think).

Middle:

Axl (MMXCM) vs Yulie Ahtreide (WA4)- Doesn't even need to waste a turn on Protect!

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jin Uzuki (XS2)- From looking early on in the season, think he at least would deserve to upgrade in this pool this season!

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Zophar (Lunar:EBC) vs Xorn (G3) - EBO.

Demi (PS4) vs Kary (FF1) - I remember a couple years back when Elfboy crunched this match and ended up giving the match to Demi. She needs... hm, two doubles for me, she probably does 4HKO for me, if barely (go first, attack, heal until first double, heal and attack, attack twice on second double for the win). She doubles every nine turns... has twenty-two shots of healing. So, for her to double twice, she needs to heal eighteen times. Yeah, works for me, and even if she's only 110% average speed, that's enough. Good match. EDIT: NEB's analysis is actually a bit more accurate there! Heh.

Middle:

Axl (MMXCM) vs Yulie Ahtreide (WA4) - Axl vs. Light-level healer is pretty bad for him. Axl vs. Heavy-level healer? Yeah no.

[Dark Holy Elf]

I actually have to think about most every fight this week. Didn't expect that. Well, no, Zophar beats Xorn without much trouble. Someday Xorn will champ! Maybe.

Demi/Kary... mm. I think Demi just misses an 8:7 meaning only two doubles, so she does need that 4HKO. Do I see Kary's pdur as under 1.8? Hell if I know where I see fiend durability that precisely.

Yulie/Axl is almost certainly Yulie, but there is a chance Axl OHKOs since Yulie durability. Doubt it, though.


EDIT: Wait a sec, I'm stupid. 9:8 alone is enough. 9:8 means 27:24. Here's how the battle goes.

Demi attacks (turn 1)

Kary attacks
Demi heals
(repeat for 7 uses of Recover)

Demi attacks (turn 9)
Kary attacks (turn 8)
Demi heals (turn 10, 8th Recover)

Kary attacks
Demi heals
(repeat for 7 uses of Recover, 15 total)

Demi attacks (turn 18)
Kary attacks (turn 16)
Demi heals (turn 19, 16th Recover)

Kary attacks
Demi heals (repeat for only SIX uses this time)

Demi is out of Recover at this point, buuut since she has a 9:8, and it's time for Kary's 23rd attack...

Kary attacks (23)
Demi attacks (26)
Demi attacks (27)
[Kary attacks (24)]

Demi gets 5 attacks off and that's definitely enough. So yeah.

[Monkeyfinger]

Zophay, Kary, Yulie.

FFO Kary can take 5 hits. She has that chance ofOHKOing with crits + high variance too. she gets a lot ofchances to do it.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Since I just wasted half an hour of my life re-learning enough statistics to figure this out, assuming you agree with all the assumptions of stat topics and such, Kary has a 1/7000 chance of getting high enough variance to kill Demi, so that path to victory, at least, is out.

EDIT: Made a calculation error, it's actually 1 in 475 million. <___<

[Pyro]

Godlike:

Zophar (Lunar:EBC) vs Xorn (G3): Gets about the same number of turns due to multipart and is just better.

Heavy:

Demi (PS4) vs Kary (FF1): I don't have as much love for Demi's speed as Snow/the elf

Middle:

Axl (MMXCM) vs Yulie Ahtreide (WA4)

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jin Uzuki (XS2)

[OblivionKnight]

Godlike:

Zophar (Lunar:EBC) vs Xorn (G3) - Zophar.  Jazz hands of doom, apparently.  Xorn losing is perfect though - more emo can only make him stronger for next time!

Heavy:

Demi (PS4) vs Kary (FF1) - Kary.  Yeah, everything is turn-based to me (especially when they both come from that system style).  Also, FFO.

Middle:

Axl (MMXCM) vs Yulie Ahtreide (WA4) - ...

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jin Uzuki (XS2) - Jin.  XS3 form for the win, easily.  More deserving of an upgrade than Garet

[superaielman]

XS3 Jin is status bait and can't do anything to stop that.

[OblivionKnight]

He can very easily.  

You do realize that Garet's status (assuming you're giving him just straight Mars Djinn) is attached to a physical attack, right?  It's delusion (blind) and stun (paralysis).  Jin has Ghost Diver (100% evade and counter), and is faster at baseline than Garet (above average beats below average pretty easily, I'd think, unless I'm missing something).  Garet's Djinn with status are all single-target, which Jin evades 100% and counters.  For 5 actions.  And Jin also 2-shots average (which Garet isn't, but hey), while Garet 3-shots average...and using a Djinn drops Garet's damage and durability if he uses more than one (and drops it minorly if he uses even one).  Jin has plenty of time in the 10 actions given by Ghost Diver to kill...and considering he also has 3 Gale Strikes (which 2 shot normally) to use in addition to the 2 Ghost Divers?  Not an issue at all.

For reference, Jin has 236 EP at level 55 (which is...I feel low, but whatever).  99 EP*2 for Ghost Diver = 198, while Gale Strike is 12 EP*3 = 234.  Plus 6 physicals at a minimum.  

Garet's status is good, but it has to hit, unfortunately.  

[superaielman]

I did not know that Djinns could miss.

[hinode]

Demi (PS4) vs Kary (FF1) - I have DoS Kary doing about 45% PCHP damage in my notes, which Demi mocks.

[James_xeno]

He can very easily. 

You do realize that Garet's status (assuming you're giving him just straight Mars Djinn) is attached to a physical attack, right?  It's delusion (blind) and stun (paralysis).  Jin has Ghost Diver (100% evade and counter), and is faster at baseline than Garet (above average beats below average pretty easily, I'd think, unless I'm missing something).  Garet's Djinn with status are all single-target, which Jin evades 100% and counters.  For 5 actions.  And Jin also 2-shots average (which Garet isn't, but hey), while Garet 3-shots average...and using a Djinn drops Garet's damage and durability if he uses more than one (and drops it minorly if he uses even one).  Jin has plenty of time in the 10 actions given by Ghost Diver to kill...and considering he also has 3 Gale Strikes (which 2 shot normally) to use in addition to the 2 Ghost Divers?  Not an issue at all.

For reference, Jin has 236 EP at level 55 (which is...I feel low, but whatever).  99 EP*2 for Ghost Diver = 198, while Gale Strike is 12 EP*3 = 234.  Plus 6 physicals at a minimum. 

Garet's status is good, but it has to hit, unfortunately. 

Not to mention that Jin has easy access to Wiseman's Beads (store bought) which null all status ailments.

[SnowFire]

Not to mention that Jin has easy access to Wiseman's Beads (store bought) which null all status ailments.

There's a bit of an asterisk next to Wiseman's Beads.  Sure, for those who use the Yamikei clause of "everything is legal even if postgame," the XS3 cast has perfect status immunity...  but for those who don't, it's a bit more complicated.  After you complete the final dungeon, you have enough money to maybe buy 1 Wiseman's Beads?  It'd definitely take some grinding in the final dungeon to get enough money to get 3 of them, or even 7.  And XS3 doesn't have much of a postgame - there's Dark Erde Kaiser, sure, but that fight is more about collecting the Erde Kaiser power-ups than level or anything else.  And that's about it.  I personally allow any postgame skills that actually can theoretically be used in a postgame, so SO3 Maria's Energy Burst is fine due to having plenty more postgame to hack through even after she's got it.  Meanwhile, a use for Fei's Yamikei is practically impossible to find, so that gets a no from me.  XS3 doesn't have much of a postgame, so no dice on the Beads personally.  On the other hand, I suspect most people allow Ziggy his ultimate weapon, and that requires screwing around fighting monsters in the final dungeon a lot, so who knows.

That said Jin wins anyway, see OK.

Zophar also gets the nod, he can easily evade Xorn getting much of a game going by blowing past his limit...  even without Fate Storm.  Yeah.  Zophar cheats.

[Bardiche]

You realise Garet can decrease physical damage by 90%, right?

[superaielman]

For a turn. This came up a few weeks back.

[Bardiche]

Oh, it's just one turn. And, under OK's judgment, he'd need... to buy himself 10 turns.

Fascinating.

[Nephrite]

The Djinn does reset itself after one round, but uh I can't really see any way for Garet to keep living that long unless you really respect his status or something.

[VySaika]

I assume Garet vs XS2 Jin is a slaughter in Garret's favor? I haven't beaten XS2, so hell if I know all of what Jin can do there. IIRC it's just physical attack and bad healing, but I most certainly could be wrong about a game I try not to think about much.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Yeah, XS3 Jin > Garet > XS2 Jin from where I'm standing, and neither inequality seems particularly disputable.