Proving Grounds Week 3 Middle: Mog kicks FF13 to the curb.

[superaielman]

In:

Mog: 24-29 45%
Hope: 12-33 27%

Out:

Lightning:  6-39 13%
October: 5-37 12%

See Heavy's notes.The middles drawn were Justin and Adachi.

Justin- Everyone's favorite idiot packs a punch, but has SP issues in the DL.
Adachi- Mmmm, killers.

Hope vs Lloyd (LoD)
Hope vs Kevin (SD3)
Hope vs Cristo (DW4)
Hope vs Nicholai (SH2)
Hope vs Rei (BoF3)
Hope vs Zapdos (PKMN)
Hope vs Scythe (WA4)
Hope vs Guy (FE7)
Hope vs Rauny (OB)
Hope vs Sceptile (PKMN)
Hope vs  Yosuke (Pers4)
Hope vs Lich (FF1)

Mog vs Lloyd (LoD)
Mog vs Kevin (SD3)
Mog vs Cristo (DW4)
Mog vs Nicholai (SH2)
Mog vs Rei (BoF3)
Mog vs Zapdos (PKMN)
Mog vs Scythe (WA4)
Mog vs Guy (FE7)
Mog vs Rauny (OB)
Mog vs Sceptile (PKMN)
Mog vs  Yosuke (Pers4)
Mog vs Lich (FF1)

Justin vs Lloyd (LoD)
Justin vs Kevin (SD3)
Justin vs Cristo (DW4)
Justin vs Nicholai (SH2)
Justin vs Rei (BoF3)
Justin vs Zapdos (PKMN)
Justin vs Scythe (WA4)
Justin vs Guy (FE7)
Justin vs Rauny (OB)
Justin vs Sceptile (PKMN)
Justin vs  Yosuke (Pers4)
Justin vs Lich (FF1)

Adachi vs Lloyd (LoD)
Adachi vs Kevin (SD3)
Adachi vs Cristo (DW4)
Adachi vs Nicholai (SH2)
Adachi vs Rei (BoF3)
Adachi vs Zapdos (PKMN)
Adachi vs Scythe (WA4)
Adachi vs Guy (FE7)
Adachi vs Rauny (OB)
Adachi vs Sceptile (PKMN)
Adachi vs  Yosuke (Pers4)
Adachi vs Lich (FF1)

[superaielman]

Hope vs Lloyd (LoD)- Haste/shell/protect, outslug. Lloyd counters aren't nearly enough.
Hope vs Kevin (SD3)- *SPLAT*
Hope vs Cristo (DW4)- Stopspell is pretty damn accurate. Even with resistance it's going to hit sooner rather than later.
Hope vs Nicholai (SH2)- Should be able to outlast.
Hope vs Rei (BoF3)- He's *still* faster than Hope post haste, so heal lock.
Hope vs Zapdos (PKMN)- Thunderwave puts too much pressure on Hope.
Hope vs Scythe (WA4)- Hope's heal locked and can't blitz at all.
Hope vs Guy (FE7)- Way too much offense.
Hope vs Rauny (OB)- Shell and Barthunder let him survive two thunderflares. From there it's a matter of healing and slugging through. 
Hope vs Sceptile (PKMN)- Heal lock.
Hope vs Yosuke (Pers4)- Inflict confuse-Dekaja- 2HKO
Hope vs Lich (FF1)- Hold.

Mog vs Lloyd (LoD)- Lloyd sucks.
Mog vs Kevin (SD3)- Kevin is pure physical. That won't cut it here.
Mog vs Cristo (DW4)- Faster ID.
Mog vs Nicholai (SH2)- Yeah, he should be able to manage this.
Mog vs Rei (BoF3)-Death.
Mog vs Zapdos (PKMN)- Thunderwave.
Mog vsScythe (WA4)- -_-
Mog vs Guy (FE7)- ID heavy dance should do it.
Mog vs Rauny (OB)- Pushes thunder flare to 3HKO range, which is enough. EDIT: Oh duh, she has magic evasion.
Mog vs Sceptile (PKMN)- Magic typed? well then.
Mog vs Yosuke (Pers4)- Confuse is out and Yosuke fears Mog status.
Mog vs Lich (FF1)

Justin vs Lloyd (LoD)- Death counter.
Justin vs Kevin (SD3)- Kevin offense on turn two is nuts, and Id on't think Justin can avoid that.
Justin vs Cristo (DW4)- ID, blocks ID.
Justin vs Nicholai (SH2)- Nicholai sucks.
Justin vs Rei (BoF3)- Should avoid a 3-2.
Justin vs Zapdos (PKMN)- EDIT: I'll bite.
Justin vs Scythe (WA4)- OHKO
Justin vs Guy (FE7)- *slicesilce*
Justin vs Rauny (OB)- 2HKO, not 2HKOed.
Justin vs Sceptile (PKMN)- OHKO.
Justin vs Yosuke (Pers4)- Yosuke status defense looks pretty terrible on paper. Evasion boosting helps but not enough.
Justin vs Lich (FF1)-Hold is out and Justin hits a weakness with Lotus cut. Should be enough.

Adachi vs Lloyd (LoD)- HP difference.
Adachi vs Kevin (SD3)- Tenative. Think he tanks through the damage and nails Kevin with Mudoon.
Adachi vs Cristo (DW4)- Cristo offense.
Adachi vs Nicholai (SH2)- Boss mage.
Adachi vs Rei (BoF3)- Think he 2HKOs post Heat Riser.
Adachi vs Zapdos (PKMN)- Mage.
Adachi vs Scythe (WA4)- I think he can just survive five blasts after Heat Riser.
Adachi vs Guy (FE7)- Mudoon against Guy RES. Evasion gets him one dodge, but that's it.
Adachi vs Rauny (OB)- She has enough evasion/status defense to carry her through, and she's hitting the right stat.
Adachi vs Sceptile (PKMN)- Hitting the right defense stat.
Adachi vs Yosuke (Pers4)- ID. Yosuke's got issues with status.
Adachi vs Lich (FF1)- Boss mage.

Justin: 9-3
Mog: 5-7
Adachi: 6-6
Hope: 3-9

[Random Consonant]

Mog vs Lloyd (LoD)
Mog vs Kevin (SD3)
Mog vs Cristo (DW4)
Mog vs Rei (BoF3)
Mog vs Zapdos (PKMN)
Mog vs Guy (FE7)
Mog vs Sceptile (PKMN)
Mog vs Lich (FF1)

Mog later

Justin vs Lloyd (LoD) - Death counter probably tilts this, yeah.
Justin vs Kevin (SD3) - I'll bite
Justin vs Cristo (DW4) - Kiryl, forced to rely on damage.
Justin vs Rei (BoF3) - Just narrowly avoids the 3-2.
Justin vs Zapdos (PKMN) - Paralysis is out and the odds of Thunder hitting twice in a row is just under 50%.  Welp.  Not sure how else Zapdos would pull it off.
Justin vs Guy (FE7) - Straightforward
Justin vs Sceptile (PKMN) - Even considering the weakness hitting techs Justin's damage isn't good enough for an OHKO here.  Still not Sceptile's match, I don't think.
Justin vs Lich (FF1) - This works.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Hope vs Lloyd (LoD): Yeah, Hope can handle this.
Hope vs Kevin (SD3): Once hit, Kevin can do 1.3 PCHP damage on a turn he uses Asura Dream Fist. Hope no likey.
Hope vs Cristo (DW4): Hope can make Cristo's status turn 3 using blockers (2 fog, one death). This makes him frail as hell, but it's Cristo so who cares! Veil makes the status turn 5-6 instead. Of course, Cristo gets an opening shot in. Haste/Veil, Faith/whatever. At this point, Hope needs to win before Cristo gets in another 2-3 shots, but he's faster and heal-locks with Ruin, so... no reason he can't.
Hope vs Nicholai (SH2): It's Nicholai.
Hope vs Rei (BoF3): Weretiger 2HKOs Hope even after Protect, and is still faster even after Haste. Hope's best h
Hope vs Zapdos (PKMN): Barthunder means Hope wins a long fight, so Zapdos' only hope is to heal-lock right away? Open with Thunder, Haste won't let Hope lap, defensive spells aren't good enough. He can heal a lot in response, though, and Zapdos isn't that fast. Thunder missing destroys this strategy. He can also open with Drill Peck which also 2HKOs, though, and... this meets Protect + Barthunder, which causes neither attack to finish the 2HKO. Close enough but yeah.
Hope vs Scythe (WA4): The blitzing is a problem here, as is Suction potentially.
Hope vs Guy (FE7): Think so anyway.
Hope vs Sceptile (PKMN): Sceptile has a really fast 2HKO. This kinda shows Hope's weakness because even Shell won't let him survive a second (and Leaf Blade is only high 3HKO to average)... no Bargrass to do what he did to Zapdos.
Hope vs Lich (FF1): Hold.

Mog vs Lloyd (LoD): Hi boss mage. I guess Mog has an argument with healing through it all or something but haha no, Lloyd can hold onto Wingly Sphere until it kills and Mog will get unlucky enough to see that since he has to do his chippy Wind Song damage against 2.72 mdur.
Mog vs Kevin (SD3): Physicals smash.
Mog vs Cristo (DW4): Better at the ID thing.
Mog vs Nicholai (SH2): Hi boss mage.
Mog vs Rei (BoF3): Better at the ID thing. Desipte all my in-game experience telling me otherwise.
Mog vs Zapdos (PKMN): Zapdos can smash past healing well enough, so Mog has to race with death. That's not happening.
Mog vs Scythe (WA4): Hi boss mage.
Mog vs Guy (FE7): Tank.
Mog vs Sceptile (PKMN): See Zapdos, same story here. Sceptile still maintains the 3HKO against Mog mdef by a hair, although he'd win even if he didn't since he has a 4-3.
Mog vs Lich (FF1): Hold. And Bolt 2, mercifully, so he can actually deal damage to finish Mog off.

Justin vs Lloyd (LoD): Two Wingly Spheres and anything else.
Justin vs Kevin (SD3): Kevin goes first, and smash.
Justin vs Cristo (DW4): Cristo can slow down Justin's win with Blind, but not prevent it.
Justin vs Nicholai (SH2): Sure, Nicholai sucks enough here, being slower is bad.
Justin vs Rei (BoF3): Rei has weird weak spots as a dueller. He can't handle Justin, seriously?
Justin vs Zapdos (PKMN): Can survive the average damage of two Thunders, which is how I vote on Pokemon attacks at the moment. Taking them as individual chances... does help Zapdos, because while he has only a 49% chance to hit twice, he also wins if the one attack crits, so that pushes the odds over 50.
Justin vs Scythe (WA4): Blasts to death very easily. Heaven and Earth Cut does like 55% to average by the most favourable interp, lol at that OHKOing.
Justin vs Guy (FE7): Outslugs easily enough.
Justin vs Sceptile (PKMN): Two Thunders doesn't manage it, but 3 Leaf Blades does and Sceptile has a 3-2. Ice Cut is within a fraction of a percentage point of a OHKO with the most favourable numbers, but I don't use those so this is pretty clear. Also, I am seriously amused by Sceptile seriously outperforming Zapdos this week, just the way the numbers fell.
Justin vs Lich (FF1): Justin can block Hold, and then... face someone with 1.57 pdur. Lotus Cut misses the 2HKO here easily, while Lich 3HKOs first.

Hope 4-6
Justin 4-6
Mog 2-8 (okay, I thought last field was him getting lucky somewhat)

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Mog vs Lloyd (LoD) - Mog gives Lloyd -so much time- to do whatever.
Mog vs Kevin (SD3) - lul fighters
Mog vs Cristo (DW4) - He just IDs first.
Mog vs Nicholai (SH2) - He just like 3HKOs first. Dear god.
Mog vs Rei (BoF3) - He just IDs first. Mog hates ID whores.
Mog vs Zapdos (PKMN) - Mog generally no likey being 2HKOed. Even if this 2HKO comes with some accuracy woes.
Mog vs Scythe (WA4) - Mog's ability to avoid Suction:



Ahem. It's not like Scythe doesn't just bombard Mog first anyway.

Mog vs Guy (FE7) - lul fighters
Mog vs Rauny (OB) - Rauny just 3HKOs Mog and is faster. This is usually a bad combo for him.
Mog vs Sceptile (PKMN) - See Rauny, but raise the speed difference a bunch. Ugly.
Mog vs  Yosuke (Pers4) - Yosuke's status gets immuned, he -5HKOs with his magic- and um yeah.
Mog vs Lich (FF1) - Tornado Hold!

Justin vs Lloyd (LoD) - Oh no you di'n't
Justin vs Kevin (SD3) - Oh lord what. Kevin just kills Justin dead comes turn two.
Justin vs Cristo (DW4) - Cristo can annoy the hell out of Justin, but he can't kill ever before Justin lands that ID himself.
Justin vs Nicholai (SH2) - Slower than Justin, Nicholai? Congrats. Not even sure this -matters- anyway...
Justin vs Rei (BoF3) - Seriously, Rei?
Justin vs Zapdos (PKMN) - Zapdos doesn't 2HKO Justin? Really.
Justin vs Scythe (WA4) - Justin's ability to OHKO Scythe:



Justin vs Guy (FE7) - Two-rounds first. Trying for the ID would be impressively suicidal with counters+WTD to boot.
Justin vs Rauny (OB) - EDIT: Okay, so she doesn't avoid the 2HKO.
Justin vs Sceptile (PKMN) - 3-2 and 3HKO while not being OHKOed. There we go, kids.
Justin vs  Yosuke (Pers4) - If nothing else, spam dat ID axe. Woohoo Yosuke pressure.
Justin vs Lich (FF1) - Hold me closer, Tony Danza tiny dancer~

Adachi vs Lloyd (LoD) - Adachi against boss mages is about as Light as it gets.
Adachi vs Kevin (SD3) - Kevin deals like 1.3x PC HP on turn two... -if- he's hurt. Adachi more or less circumvents that with Mudoon, thus Kevin misses the 2HKO and weeps. Go go go.
Adachi vs Cristo (DW4) - Adachi can freaking apply Ghastly Wail+Evil Smile for lulz here.
Adachi vs Nicholai (SH2) - Holy -crap-. Adachi, you suck against mages.
Adachi vs Rei (BoF3) - EDIT: OKAY, so the ID is turn three and I think Rei should still manage a 3HKO post-Weretiger even with the physical damage hit and he 4-3s. So Adachi needs to slugfest. He 4HKOs average, but he borderline 2HKOs after Heat Riser, which also drops Rei's 3HKO to a 4HKO. Borderline 2HKOs actually manage it on Rei - sooooooooooooo... yeah, vote stands.
Adachi vs Zapdos (PKMN) - Adachi vs. mage.
Adachi vs Scythe (WA4) - Adachi's ability to survive Scythe's magical blitz:



I'm sorry.

Adachi vs Guy (FE7) - The MDef probably keeps the ID turn two even with the evade. And Adachi can live through two Guy turns, I want to say.
Adachi vs Rauny (OB) - Adachi ain't much better against PC mages than he is against boss mages.
Adachi vs Sceptile (PKMN) - See above. Not inclined to buy weakness-hitting giving Adachi a turn either. He'd love you forever if you did, though.
Adachi vs  Yosuke (Pers4) - Holy crap the ID may be turn one on Yosuke.
Adachi vs Lich (FF1) - Boss mage, guys. Adachi may even hit a weakness, but he fails the OHKO even post-Heat Riser and gets fairly easily 2HKOed back (3HKOed with HR, but it's just the same).

Total tally

Mog: 3 - 9
Justin: 6 - 6
Adachi: 5 - 7