Godlike
Dragon (7) vs Giffca (9): Yeah no, Giffca's not good enough to deal with Dragon's nasty near-ITE/ITD 2HKO-to-almost-everything nonsense. Giffca only does 1.8 PCHP before dying, and Dragon's well past that to me thanks to his outstanding def.
Lucina (13) vs Athos (7): Athos 2HKOs by a hair with Luna, to the point where roundoff means he might miss it. Of course he can 2HKO more solidly with Aureola or Forblaze, misses the 2HKO with Nosferatu but has it with Nos + one of the legendaries. Meanwhile Lucina kills in three attacks (five brave hits if you prefer), i.e. in two turns, i.e. the same as Athos. But Athos has better relative threat range I -think- (both scan as being normal move, but Athos has range) so goes first, smacks with Aureola, and wins on a counter? Actually even if he goes second it doesn't matter. Lucina needs turn 1 Aether here, or to dodge... and Athos is +24 hit from average with Aureola, more if Luna is good enough.
Heavy
Cordelia (13) vs Ike (9): Ike 3HKOs, Cordelia... just misses the 3HKO. And Ike can attack at range, which makes this pretty ugly since Cordelia will be doing some dodging but not nearly enough.
Gangrel (13) vs Zephiel (6): Zephiel OHKOs Gangrel, no math needed there. Does he land his first hit? Yeah, almost assuredly... he's got pretty good accuracy (support concerns should cancel out here). Anyway Gangrel very obviously doesn't OHKO so I think that's that. He may even have some trouble 3HKOing which means one dodge wouldn't matter; I'd need to math that out.
Tana (8) vs Hector (7): Armads.
Rutger (6) vs Gaius (13): Rutger is faster than Lyn, so no doubling concerns here. Rutger 3HKOs with Silver while Gaius also 3HKOs as an Assassin, or 4HKOs as a Trickster. Rutger is extremely accurate (+22 with Silver, +27 with Killer) so Gaius isn't likely to gain much respect from me in evasion (especially since his evade build needs an extra hit to win and has lower pdur so Rutger can use more accurate weapons). All this without hyping the fact that Rutger can get 75 crit and Gaius' poor luck.
Middle
Henry (13) vs Oswin (7): Have some death!
Jaffar (7) vs Tiki (11): Jaffar is +5.8 AS, Tiki is +2.26. Baaarely a doubling, in other words. Speaking of baaarely, Tiki manages the 2HKO to the slightly fragile Jaffar, and also has the accuracy to reliably land both hits. So Jaffar needs a 2HKO to win and a 3HKO to tie. Tiki def is pretty good so he's probably looking at a 4HKO, which isn't good enough.
Jill (9) vs Chrom (13): Thanks to the Falchion, Chrom 2HKOs and Jill doesn't, and Jill doesn't have enough evade to get any hype there even with WTA.
Oscar (9) vs Vanessa (8): Bow Oscar obviously 2HKOs, but is below average accuracy. Forging accuracy would help, but all the non-Ike/laguz/thief/Nosferatu types would forge accuracy so the net gain wouldn't be that much. Anyway Vanessa 2HKOs as well and obviously has more acc/evade here so I don't see the debate?
Light
Garcia (8) vs Serra (7): Garcia 2HKOs with anything, Serra 4HKOs with anything. So Garcia barely wins if he uses a Hand Axe. Neither will want to attack first in that situation since Garcia wants to finish with Iron and Serra wants to avoid that, so stall. Uh okay. Yeah if Serra gets to attack second she just has to dodge one of two Hand Axes, laughably easy for her. Dodging one of Hand + Iron... still in her favour overall since Garcia hit is kinda bleh. Close, but yeah.
Lucius (7) vs Sanaki (10): Lucius has significantly more mdur and by the half-shifted averages, doubles.
Heather (10) vs Maribelle (13): I guess I'll have to think about a Heather match next week.
Bartre (7) vs Innes (8): Similar to Serra/Garcia kinda, as Innes 4HKOs. Bartre 2HKOs with Hand + Silver (not two Hand). Bartre starts with Hand Axe out, Innes needs to attack of course or Bartre gets a free hit. Innes does so, doubles, eats a counter. Bartre kills. So does Innes dodge at least one shot? Yeah, surely, Bartre accuracy is bad.
