Shift Tournament Week 3: Liz vs Paula. Oooh Snow!

[superaielman]

Melc Crystals>Emelious
Alternis 4, Jenna 3
Lady>Lavos
Ryu>Nobutsuna


Black Mage>Wren
Jowy>Odd Eye
Shania>Lucina
Raquel>Citan


Demi>Croco
Fujin>Sofia
Sharon 4, Sceptile 3
Elly>Mia

Raynie>Brad
Flay>Tifa
Virion 5, Rena 3
Nowi>Mario

Liz 4, Castform 3
Nina>Guido
Paula>Garland
Guard Scorpion>Igglanova

Godlike:

Ghaleon (Lunars) vs Orgulla (XS2)
Yuna (FFX) vs Zophar (Lunar:EBC)
Melc Crystals (G3) vs Alternis Dim (BD)
Lady (SH3) vs Ryu (BoF3)


High Heavy:

Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Celes Chere (FF6)
Ryu (BoF2) vs Killer (SH3)
Black Mage (BD) vs Jowy Atreides (S2)
Shania (SH3) vs Raquel Applegate (WA4)


Low Heavy

Rune Walsh (PS4) vs Marle (CT)
Yosuke Hanamura (Pers4) vs Rei (BoF3)
Demi (PS4) vs Fujin (FF8)
Sharon (LoL2) vs Elly van Houten (XG)


Middle:

Tear Grants (TotA) vs Ulrika Mulberry (MK2)
Gaff Gafgarion (FFT) vs Lilina (FE6)
Raynie (RH) vs Flay Gunnar (MK1)
Virion (FE13) vs Nowi (FE13)


Shame:

Doll (SaGa) vs Alfred Schroedinger (WA3)
Alenia (S5) vs Onix (PKMN)
Liz (WA2) vs Paula (EB)
Nina (BoF3) vs Guard Scorpion (FF7)

[superaielman]

Godlike:

Ghaleon (Lunars) vs Orgulla (XS2)- Chaos shield makes ups for the speed loss, and Ghaleon has way better offense otherwise.
Yuna (FFX) vs Zophar (Lunar:EBC)- I uh don't know? depends on how good Zophar's status was and what Yuna could block. 
Melc Crystals (G3) vs Alternis Dim (BD)- Yeah no, I'd vote Alternis over Xorn, let alone a G3 subboss.
Lady (SH3) vs Ryu (BoF3)- Lady doing what she usually does, smashing in faces.


High Heavy:

Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Celes Chere (FF6)- SL is bad times for Celes.
Ryu (BoF2) vs Killer (SH3)- Status.
Black Mage (BD) vs Jowy Atreides (S2)-Survives a hungry friend, IDs.
Shania (SH3) vs Raquel Applegate (WA4)- Kneejerk. Shania going first is very bad news.


Low Heavy

Rune Walsh (PS4) vs Marle (CT)- Negatis. Marle might resist it once but what the hell does she do after that? Her status is running into psy equips and her damage is laughable.
Yosuke Hanamura (Pers4) vs Rei (BoF3)- Status. Yosuke was really bad against status, enough so that Silence is probably turn 1 to me here.
Demi (PS4) vs Fujin (FF8)- I think? Not inclined to respect FF8 boss speed much.
Sharon (LoL2) vs Elly van Houten (XG)- Sharon's only really difficult match in low heavy was Sceptile. (Barring LoL2 not having sleep but I think it did)


Middle:

Tear Grants (TotA) vs Ulrika Mulberry (MK2)- Tear is inferior to Argilla pretty much across the board.
Virion (FE13) vs Nowi (FE13)


Shame:

Doll (SaGa) vs Alfred Schroedinger (WA3)- Doll looking like Orlandu against these scrubs.
Alenia (S5) vs Onix (PKMN)- Go first, 2HKO, not OHKO. I see alenia as like a fourth average PC HP, she is pathetic beyond words.
Nina (BoF3) vs Guard Scorpion (FF7)

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike:

Ghaleon (Lunars) vs Orgulla (XS2): Orgulla may well be able to kill Ghaleon in two full combos. But... I think she juuust misses, Ghaleon is like 6.5 pdur (and can push that a bit further with Chaos Shield if needed). I think Orgulla wants to buff her atk once, which probably not only lets her kill in two combos, but also puts that past Chaos Shields to stop. So, she needs to shift forms, buff, Pound of Flesh, combo, repeat the last two. That's six turns (the first at super-fast speed), so 5.5 turns of roughly average speed. Ghaleon should get three turns before being killed, to me. Orgulla is weak to fire, so he can use those turns on Inferno + physical, which does 1.13 PCHP once Orgulla's fire weakness and slash resistance and MDef are all factored in. Orgulla... can survive that, it only does 88% of her HP. But she needs to hurt herself with her buffs, which do 14%. So... Ghaleon.

Yuna (FFX) vs Zophar (Lunar:EBC): Can get Status Ball accuracy down to not super-high (silence isn't an issue, she can resist sleep+confuse, so 40%). Nothing else decisive goes before Yuna. Anima will need 2 swings but I don't see any way for Zophar to get multiple Status Ball swings in against Yuna regardless of interp.
Melc Crystals (G3) vs Alternis Dim (BD): Melc Crystals are quite possibly as good as Xorn DL-wise. That said they loathe Black Bane. Probably Alternis but it deserves a closer look later. EDIT: Never mind, Black Bane doesn't 2HKO. And hell, Melc Crystals may two-round first. They definitely lose if held to one part, of course, but whatevs, this is High Godlike. Not having a load-bearing part does help my respect there.
Lady (SH3) vs Ryu (BoF3): Ryu is faster than SH3 bosses, part 1. EDIT: Less sure after reading Dhyer's post. Hmm. Lower SH3 boss HP respect probably means my vote won't change, but should check.

High Heavy:

Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Celes Chere (FF6): Silent Lake.
Ryu (BoF2) vs Killer (SH3): Ryu is faster than SH3 bosses, part 2.
Black Mage (BD) vs Jowy Atreides (S2): Black Mage of the 93% average HP and almost average MDef ain't surviving Hungry Friend.
Shania (SH3) vs Raquel Applegate (WA4): Open with Sanlittobell, double some horrific magic damage on turn 2.


Low Heavy

Rune Walsh (PS4) vs Marle (CT): I'm not sure exactly how much their stats/equips affect each other's moves but with Rune going first, the advantage is clearly his.
Demi (PS4) vs Fujin (FF8): Mm, I think. Close enough, but Demi just needs to doubleturn once in a long fight, or to OHKO. FF8 boss scaling is psyduck but I'm inclined to think she passes at least one of those checks to me.
Sharon (LoL2) vs Elly van Houten (XG): Blocks sleep.


Middle:

Tear Grants (TotA) vs Ulrika Mulberry (MK2): Kneejerk that Super is more or less right. Well, Tear is less reliant on an element Ulrika can spoil I guess, but otherwise...
Gaff Gafgarion (FFT) vs Lilina (FE6): Inclined to say she 2HKOs, her damage is pretty good and Gaf faith should eat into his HP some, but scaling could still give him this. Anyway, countering + not being doubled + 2HKOing means draining isn't a thing.
Raynie (RH) vs Flay Gunnar (MK1): Flay can hurt his stats some to block sleep, have to imagine he still outslugs.
Virion (FE13) vs Nowi (FE13): Virion won? Oh you guys.


Shame:

Doll (SaGa) vs Alfred Schroedinger (WA3): Surely.
Alenia (S5) vs Onix (PKMN): Faster, fire resistance saves him from a OHKO, have to think Onix can win given two turns thanks to Bindstrats.
Nina (BoF3) vs Guard Scorpion (FF7): Lightning damage!

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike:

Ghaleon (Lunars) vs Orgulla (XS2)- Sure.
Yuna (FFX) vs Zophar (Lunar:EBC)
Melc Crystals (G3) vs Alternis Dim (BD)- Melc Crystals are not particularly durable and having the parts means I don't give HP credit.
Lady (SH3) vs Ryu (BoF3)- Great match. Ryu 3 is faster, but Lady can probably start ripping off about 1.5 PC HP a turn via a combo....except, it gets worse because she can open with a double to a combo, right? That's...a lot of Ryu's HP gone at once. If Ryu goes Kaiser, she cuts his HP so severely, leaving him with a lackluster (for Ryu 3) physical and a not very potent breath attack and should outslug (although I guess Prone can't hit. That slows her down a little, but I don't think it slows her down enough).

So Myrmidon. Well, the bad is that at this point, I probably give something doing Reverse+Fast Ring a decent amount of credit for fucking up the ability of people to successfully hit. Myrm is probably one rounded by the big combo, but of course he can go back into it. But the rings abnormalities mean that I probably need to see Ryu in a status immune form. I don't think there's a form that can take this for me, but it's an excellent fight.

High Heavy:

Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Celes Chere (FF6)
Ryu (BoF2) vs Killer (SH3)- No way I'm seeing Ryu 2 as faster. He spends most of the game trailing the speed curve unlike Ryu 3 who is generally spending the game slightly outpacing the curve. Killer goes first and IDs
Black Mage (BD) vs Jowy Atreides (S2)- Is it determined that we thought the BD Mdef kind of averaged out to being straight defensive? In that case, BM would cut magic damage by about 10%, which would let him live through a Jowy turn?
Shania (SH3) vs Raquel Applegate (WA4)


Low Heavy

Rune Walsh (PS4) vs Marle (CT)- Just...a scarier status by far.
Yosuke Hanamura (Pers4) vs Rei (BoF3)- Better speed profile works well here. Yosuke can't 2HKO, and if he wants to waste a turn buffing to marginal evade, that's one more turn for Rei to strike.
Demi (PS4) vs Fujin (FF8)- Definitely should double at some point, low Fujin speed respect
Sharon (LoL2) vs Elly van Houten (XG)


Middle:

Tear Grants (TotA) vs Ulrika Mulberry (MK2)- Go Ulrika and prime yourself to face an elemental mage next week...
Raynie (RH) vs Flay Gunnar (MK1)
Virion (FE13) vs Nowi (FE13)


Shame:

Doll (SaGa) vs Alfred Schroedinger (WA3)
Alenia (S5) vs Onix (PKMN)
Liz (WA2) vs Paula (EB)- I'm not thinking about this too hard but...1. Liz is faster. 2. Liz's physical is not complete trash...considering the division (6HKO...which is 3-4HKO on Paula). 3. Liz's HP isn't so terrible overall (considering support credit from Ard, which should be factored since your best definitely trends towards ST).
Nina (BoF3) vs Guard Scorpion (FF7)

[Random Consonant]

Godlike:

Yuna (FFX) vs Zophar (Lunar:EBC) - I remember this.
Melc Crystals (G3) vs Alternis Dim (BD) - Probably.
Lady (SH3) vs Ryu (BoF3) - Well then.


High Heavy:

Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Celes Chere (FF6) - Ze lake.
Ryu (BoF2) vs Killer (SH3) - He's faster?  Okay then.
Black Mage (BD) vs Jowy Atreides (S2) - OHKO
Shania (SH3) vs Raquel Applegate (WA4) - That stripmonixer nonsense.


Low Heavy

Rune Walsh (PS4) vs Marle (CT) - Probably.
Yosuke Hanamura (Pers4) vs Rei (BoF3)

Middle:

Gaff Gafgarion (FFT) vs Lilina (FE6) - I'm not entirely sure she avoids a double but she should 2HKO if she lives one way or another so I'm willing to vote this way.
Raynie (RH) vs Flay Gunnar (MK1) - Probably.
Virion (FE13) vs Nowi (FE13) - Surely.


Shame:

Doll (SaGa) vs Alfred Schroedinger (WA3) - Not with that damage, Alfred.
Alenia (S5) vs Onix (PKMN) - uh.
Liz (WA2) vs Paula (EB) - As low as my respect for WA2 bosses is, Liz ain't so frail as to be OHKO'd by a single PSI Freeze, and *any* lower amount of HP Up respect means Liz 2HKOs her with physical + bomb and he's faster to boot.  The best Paula can hope for here is a double KO and I am *not* willing to hype that. e: wait right the bomb is magic so she can hope for better.  That said Liz just leads off with the bomb then, again I don't think PSI Freeze + backlash is enough to down Liz here.
Nina (BoF3) vs Guard Scorpion (FF7) - Surely.

[Dark Holy Elf]

BD MDef isn't nearly as potent as straight division. Not sure how it works... I think it's still subtractive but the power is something that varies on the spell used? Regardless it's not something that's great, I had a team with wildly different MDef stats (pirate! spiritmaster!) the spread of damage taken was certainly well under 2x for anything strong enough to be worth discussing.

It's fine to see Ryu2 on the low side of average (I agree) but Killer's first turn is definitely below. Probably not much below because SH3 curve, but he went after Shania pretty consistently on the run where I died to him a whole bunch. His speed is worse than Gilbert's or Lady's.

[Pyro]

Godlike:

Ghaleon (Lunars) vs Orgulla (XS2)
Yuna (FFX) vs Zophar (Lunar:EBC): He'd need to tank 2-3 Anima physicals to survive to Status Ball Yuna again. Not likely.
Melc Crystals (G3) vs Alternis Dim (BD): All 3 parts had to be killed? That is too many targets I think.
Lady (SH3) vs Ryu (BoF3): Ryu3 will be faster, so It'd be about Lady trying to kill a dragon form and 'catch' him in Human form and kill him with some kind of combo of doom... but I think Ryu just takes her with Kaiser. Also Dhyer, Warrior + Gross + Shadow is 75% resistant to status, which is a thing. And I do believe that any Lady Combos result in her having a large recharge time.


High Heavy:

Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Celes Chere (FF6): Vanish, I guess?
Ryu (BoF2) vs Killer (SH3): Not sure he OHKOs, but eh.
Black Mage (BD) vs Jowy Atreides (S2): I don't think BM is tanky to magic at all?
Shania (SH3) vs Raquel Applegate (WA4): Magical Splat.


Low Heavy

Rune Walsh (PS4) vs Marle (CT): ID.
Yosuke Hanamura (Pers4) vs Rei (BoF3): Unless Yosuke can 2HKO? Rei could... Speed-> EX -> Weretiger -> One Hit... still get 2HKOd... or 2x Deaths... I'm not even sure Yosuke can 2HKO with his best move? Well even if he can the 20% self-damage is a dead-end for him. Rei will kill him with one Weretiger hit + That I think.
Demi (PS4) vs Fujin (FF8): Bad luck for Fujin.
Sharon (LoL2) vs Elly van Houten (XG): I think she negates Elly's one trick?


Middle:

Tear Grants (TotA) vs Ulrika Mulberry (MK2)
Gaff Gafgarion (FFT) vs Lilina (FE6)
Raynie (RH) vs Flay Gunnar (MK1): I don' t think she 2HKOs, and he negates her Sleep trick?
Virion (FE13) vs Nowi (FE13)


Shame:

Doll (SaGa) vs Alfred Schroedinger (WA3)
Alenia (S5) vs Onix (PKMN)
Liz (WA2) vs Paula (EB)
Nina (BoF3) vs Guard Scorpion (FF7)

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Ghaleon (Lunars) vs Orgulla (XS2) - I'll bite.
Yuna (FFX) vs Zophar (Lunar:EBC) - If Yuna wins this against EBC, IMAGINE EBO.
Melc Crystals (G3) vs Alternis Dim (BD) - For consistency's sake. If I give Melc Crystals all its parts, it obviously wins, but that wasn't how I started voting this season.
Lady (SH3) vs Ryu (BoF3) - I think this is right for me if Ryu's faster. If nothing else, that once-per-season Bonebreak becomes relevant -here-.

Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Celes Chere (FF6) - Lakes, silenced.
Ryu (BoF2) vs Killer (SH3) - Quite frankly, when in doubt, I tiebreak against Ryu2 speed.
Black Mage (BD) vs Jowy Atreides (S2) - No.
Shania (SH3) vs Raquel Applegate (WA4) - Yeah, this isn't hard.

Rune Walsh (PS4) vs Nadia "Marle" Guardia (CT) - I'll bite. I think it's more likely that Rune's ID is still turn two, which beats Marle's own turn two Stop.
Yosuke Hanamura (Pers4) vs Rei (BoF3) - Yosuke's not very good in this division. super's also right, his game-worst Luck makes him suck against status.
Demi (PS4) vs Fujin (FF8) - I think just 2HKOing first is enough, and that Demi's definitely got to me. EDIT: Granted, the OPB Meteor may force Demi to Barrier, no? Regardless, I certainly see Demi getting a double before she runs out of Recover charges as well.
Sharon (LoL2) vs Elhaym van Houten (XG) - Blocks sleep, Elly is now a terrible Light.

Tear Grants (TotA) vs Ulrika Mulberry (MK2) - God, Tear doesn't even immune Silence like Argilla does. This is very thoughtless.
Gaff Gafgarion (FFT) vs Lilina (FE6) - Yeah, if Gaff doesn't double, this is Lilina's fight for sure.
Raynie (RH) vs Flay Gunnar (MK1) - Flay's above average mdur and blocks Sleep. I think this works.
Virion (FE13) vs Nowi (FE13) - WELL

Doll (SaGa) vs Alfred Schroedinger (WA3) - Doll, eternal Fantastic Unlimited Tactical Uguu champion.
Alenia (S5) vs Onix (PKMN) - HOW DO PEOPLE KEEP MAKING ONIX BIND RELEVANT THIS SEASON. Anyway, Bindstrats just OHKO Alenia to me.
Liz (WA2) vs Paula (EB) - I'm pretty sure Random's right on the money here. Liz goes first, 2HKOs Paula with Gecko Merton + physical because and Paula doesn't OHKO back even after the first swing of self-damage. Amazing.
Nina Wyndia (BoF3) vs Guard Scorpion (FF7) - Goldoa does not groove.

[SnowFire]

Godlike:

Ghaleon (Lunars) vs Orgulla (XS2) - Going off Elf's analysis, but less Ghaleon HP respect (5x characters & all) means that Orgulla can skip the attack buff turn sounds like.
Yuna (FFX) vs Zophar (Lunar:EBC)
Melc Crystals (G3) vs Alternis Dim (BD) - Yeah, Normal Black Bane isn't enough here. 
Lady (SH3) vs Ryu (BoF3)
Since Lady & the Crystals are right next to one another here - Lady is a multipart boss too, and she's a Low Godlike at best if held to the Malice Unbral, and even worse if held to Lady herself with no Malice Unbral.  Just sayin'!

High Heavy:

Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Celes Chere (FF6) - Celes DOES have really good MBlock & defense, just shame about the FF6 basic physicals thing.
Ryu (BoF2) vs Killer (SH3)
Black Mage (BD) vs Jowy Atreides (S2)
Black Mage's Magic Defense isn't THAT special, so this is more of a Jowy anti-vote (checking, I have BMage guesstimated at 1.01 MDurability).  If any character deserves to be held against the L4 averages, it's temps with locked equipment/runes, as they should be compared to in-game builds not DL-legal builds.  Anyway, per earlier chats, I found Bravely Default Magic Defense not quite as impotent a stat as Elf did, and hard-pumping MDef would indeed shut out some magic attacks entirely.  But this is obviously very close so I'm fine with a Jowy win here anyway.
EDIT: And huh, Black Mage lost a little when I reran the numbers, and is down to 0.99 MDur.  Okay fine I'll let Jowy have it then.
Shania (SH3) vs Raquel Applegate (WA4)

Middle:

Gaff Gafgarion (FFT) vs Lilina (FE6) - She isn't doubled, which should be enough to win here.
Virion (FE13) vs Nowi (FE13) - Munch munch.

Shame:

Alenia (S5) vs Onix (PKMN) - I think.  Onix's MDef is so bad that Alenia's earlier form where she has the Twilight Rune might be able to get some sick Sleeps off, but nah.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Yeah, if you scale bosses directly against number of PCs fought, then Orgulla wins that match pretty easily I'd say (she gets more durable, Ghaleon gets significantly less). Mostly applies to Dhyer and Pyro, the rest of us are already voting along party lines. <.<

Re Twilight Alenia vs. Onix, Alenia is slower than Onix (Onix weirdly isn't super-slow like you'd think... still below average, but Alenia is significantly further below average) and sleep is cancelled by damage in S5, making it completely worthless against faster targets.

[Dhyerwolf]

Vote switched in that case.

[SnowFire]

Changed my vote on Black Mage vs. Jowy.  Did some testing then re-ran the numbers rather than argue with Elf until the end of time on BD Magic Defense, and BM comes out slightly worse in the bargain.  Additionally there's the part where even if Jowy is held against in-game characters, he has a bit of a level advantage, so I guess he barely hustles out the OHKO after all, although it's still really close.

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike:

Ghaleon (Lunars) vs Orgulla (XS2)
Yuna (FFX) vs Zophar (Lunar:EBC)
Melc Crystals (G3) vs Alternis Dim (BD)
Lady (SH3) vs Ryu (BoF3)


High Heavy:

Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Celes Chere (FF6)
Ryu (BoF2) vs Killer (SH3)
Black Mage (BD) vs Jowy Atreides (S2)
Shania (SH3) vs Raquel Applegate (WA4)


Low Heavy

Rune Walsh (PS4) vs Marle (CT)
Yosuke Hanamura (Pers4) vs Rei (BoF3)
Demi (PS4) vs Fujin (FF8)
Sharon (LoL2) vs Elly van Houten (XG)


Middle:

Tear Grants (TotA) vs Ulrika Mulberry (MK2)
Gaff Gafgarion (FFT) vs Lilina (FE6)
Raynie (RH) vs Flay Gunnar (MK1)
Virion (FE13) vs Nowi (FE13)


Shame:

Doll (SaGa) vs Alfred Schroedinger (WA3)
Alenia (S5) vs Onix (PKMN)
Liz (WA2) vs Paula (EB)
Nina (BoF3) vs Guard Scorpion (FF7)

[DjinnAndTonic]

Godlike:

Ghaleon (Lunars) vs Orgulla (XS2)
Yuna (FFX) vs Zophar (Lunar:EBC)
Melc Crystals (G3) vs Alternis Dim (BD)
Lady (SH3) vs Ryu (BoF3)


High Heavy:

Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Celes Chere (FF6)
Ryu (BoF2) vs Killer (SH3)
Black Mage (BD) vs Jowy Atreides (S2)
Shania (SH3) vs Raquel Applegate (WA4)


Low Heavy

Rune Walsh (PS4) vs Marle (CT)
Yosuke Hanamura (Pers4) vs Rei (BoF3)
Demi (PS4) vs Fujin (FF8)
Sharon (LoL2) vs Elly van Houten (XG)


Middle:

Tear Grants (TotA) vs Ulrika Mulberry (MK2)
Gaff Gafgarion (FFT) vs Lilina (FE6)
Raynie (RH) vs Flay Gunnar (MK1)
Virion (FE13) vs Nowi (FE13)


Shame:

Doll (SaGa) vs Alfred Schroedinger (WA3)
Alenia (S5) vs Onix (PKMN)
Liz (WA2) vs Paula (EB)
Nina (BoF3) vs Guard Scorpion (FF7)

[Luther Lansfeld]

Godlike:

Ghaleon (Lunars) vs Orgulla (XS2)
Yuna (FFX) vs Zophar (Lunar:EBC)
Melc Crystals (G3) vs Alternis Dim (BD)
Lady (SH3) vs Ryu (BoF3)

High Heavy:

Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Celes Chere (FF6)
Ryu (BoF2) vs Killer (SH3)
Black Mage (BD) vs Jowy Atreides (S2)
Shania (SH3) vs Raquel Applegate (WA4)


Low Heavy

Rune Walsh (PS4) vs Marle (CT)
Yosuke Hanamura (Pers4) vs Rei (BoF3)
Demi (PS4) vs Fujin (FF8)
Sharon (LoL2) vs Elly van Houten (XG)


Middle:

Tear Grants (TotA) vs Ulrika Mulberry (MK2)
Gaff Gafgarion (FFT) vs Lilina (FE6)
Raynie (RH) vs Flay Gunnar (MK1)
Virion (FE13) vs Nowi (FE13)


Shame:

Doll (SaGa) vs Alfred Schroedinger (WA3)
Alenia (S5) vs Onix (PKMN)
Liz (WA2) vs Paula (EB)
Nina (BoF3) vs Guard Scorpion (FF7)