FE Fates: Royal Rumble

[SnowFire]

A random fun mini-Proving Grounds esque thing.  Or maybe closer to Lezarding grounds, who knows.  It's too quiet here lately.

Which FE Fates Royal is the best?!  Let's find out in FEDL.  Not enough of the huge Fates cast has gotten proper DL matches, so eh, let's have 'em face off against each other.  I didn't include Azura because, uh, pretty sure she just loses.  (I guess if you assume phantom statues to up her stat caps - reasonable - she might have a 50/50 with Elise & Sakura based on if she dodges turn 1, but that's about it.)

Note that Corrin is still a bit of an interp split - path forms, neutral vs. fixed vs. rotating stat bonuses, etc.  Oh well.

Corrin vs. Ryoma
Corrin vs. Hinoka
Corrin vs. Takumi
Corrin vs. Sakura
Corrin vs. Xander
Corrin vs. Camilla
Corrin vs. Leo
Corrin vs. Elise

Ryoma vs. Hinoka
Ryoma vs. Takumi
Ryoma vs. Sakura
Ryoma vs. Xander
Ryoma vs. Camilla
Ryoma vs. Leo
Ryoma vs. Elise

Hinoka vs. Takumi
Hinoka vs. Sakura
Hinoka vs. Xander
Hinoka vs. Camilla
Hinoka vs. Leo
Hinoka vs. Elise

Takumi vs. Sakura
Takumi vs. Xander
Takumi vs. Camilla
Takumi vs. Leo
Takumi vs. Elise

Sakura vs. Xander
Sakura vs. Camilla
Sakura vs. Leo
Sakura vs. Elise

Xander vs. Camilla
Xander vs. Leo
Xander vs. Elise

Camilla vs. Leo
Camilla vs. Elise

Leo vs. Elise

[SnowFire]

Personally, for this topic, I'd think it would be funny to assume Hoshido Noble vs. the Nohr siblings, and Nohr Noble vs. the Hoshidan siblings.  For the actual DL, well, Revelation is legal enough to me, so probably Nohr Noble (for more speed) w/ an Omega Yato it is, for all that H. Noble's better Strength is a non-trivial benefit.  Neutral on stat boons / banes.  Also, this kind of FEDL situation might be rare footage of Corrin wanting a +Skl build, get those Dragonstone+ hits off more reliably and null out a bunch of annoying enemy evade, since everybody is whiffing like crazy against PC-level evade.

Also, handy speed chart mostly for my own reference:

Hinoka: 34.5
Nohr Noble Corrin w/ Omega Yato: 34 (w/ DS: 32, w/ DS+: 30, w/ Levin Sword: 33) (-4 to all w/ Shadow Yato)
Ryoma: 32
Elise: 31
Camilla: 30?  (capped, though, might be higher w/ statues)
Takumi: 27.5
Sakura: 27
Leo: 24.5
Xander: 18.5

BR damage is against 24 Def / 19 Res, CQ damage is against 25 Def / 21 Res.

Corrin vs. Ryoma
Uh, Ryoma like 4HKOs vs. DS+ Corrin, but DS+ Corrin isn't hitting Ryoma twice in a row, and rams into Vantage anyway.  I guess Corrin only uses DS+ for their first turn to apply Draconic Hex then uses the Yato...  which should double now...  and Dragon Fang activation is death here, for all that Astra probably is too.  If either both shots hit or DF + hit happens, Ryoma is dead, but Ryoma gets both a counter and his own hit and, if he was hit once, gets to Vantage for Corrin's turn 3.  Tricky one, would want to math it out, but pretty sure that Corrin loses without either Omega Yato or opting into a +SKL build.  Feels like a close fight but one that probably favors Ryoma even with the nicer interps for Corrin.  (There's also Levin Sword stratz, but eh, that tanks Corrin's evade.)
Corrin vs. Hinoka
Hinoka doubles, with Warding Blow, DS+ Corrin, but just doesn't actually do any damage, despite taking basically no damage on the counter.  Then gets Draconic Hex'd.  Okay, there's no profit in that, so   Still, Corrin only 2HKOs with the Yato, and there's still some notable evasion left over, so call it 3 more attacks required....  but Hinoka can probably kill in 3 attacks herself with no fear of evasion, even through Draconic Hex, thanks to WTA.  Close one.
Corrin vs. Takumi
Takumi shoots Corrin really hard once...  then gets doubled and dies. 
Corrin vs. Sakura
Levin Sword stratz.  Counter with the LS, then attack.  (BR Corrin might actually lose, though, and for CQ or RV Corrin, there's arguably a stallfest where whoever goes first loses, but Corrin will win more matches overall in some sort of tiebreaker I suspect.)
Corrin vs. Xander
Levin Sword.
Corrin vs. Camilla
DS counter -> DS+, hope both hit or Dragon Fang activates.  Camilla doesn't care as much as she 2HKOs and goes first, so she'll have 3 attacks before Corrin sees 2.  Close, but suspect Camilla has it.  (Corrin wants that +SKL build to win here!)
Corrin vs. Leo
Counter with LS and apply Hex, attack w/ Yato for the win.  This works for RV Corrin, CQ Corrin might need to either tank 2 Leo shots or evade one since she needs to double to kill Leo I suspect, and BR Corrin is in deep, he definitely needs to evade one of Leo's attacks.  (But might well do it, in fairness).
Corrin vs. Elise
OHKO w/ the Yato.

Ryoma vs. Hinoka
50/50 based on if Hinoka hits twice in her opening double on Ryoma, and if she misses once, if Ryoma eats an unlucky miss in his own 2HKO or procs Astra / crit.  Leaning Hinoka on it.
Ryoma vs. Takumi
RIP
Ryoma vs. Sakura
RIP RIP
Ryoma vs. Xander
Luna & Astra are comparable, but the evasion is not.  Ryoma needs to be having his damage mostly nulled for Xander to have a shot here.
Ryoma vs. Camilla
Swords: Broken
Ryoma vs. Leo
Nope.
Ryoma vs. Elise
Ow.

Hinoka vs. Takumi
Boom.
Hinoka vs. Sakura
Hinoka vs. mages.
Hinoka vs. Xander
Rare footage of Bolt Naginata stratz.
Hinoka vs. Camilla
Camilla is 2HKOing here even without Trample hype and there's not a lot Hinoka can do about it.
Hinoka vs. Leo
Hinoka vs. mages.
Hinoka vs. Elise
Hinoka vs. mages.

Takumi vs. Sakura
Pray for a Miracle.
Takumi vs. Xander
Takumi can actually hurt Xander, which is impressive, but one side is getting counterattacks and the other isn't.  Xander has decent luck and potential Luna procs to offset crit hype, too.
Takumi vs. Camilla
Surprise.
Takumi vs. Leo
I don't think Leo even needs Bowbreaker here against Takumi resistance.
Takumi vs. Elise

Sakura vs. Xander
Humiliation for Prince Xander.
Sakura vs. Camilla
Reliable 2HKO for Sakura thanks to WTA, Camilla can't avoid counters or OHKO.  (Priestess Sakura would approve.)
Sakura vs. Leo
Leo's pretty anti-magic, with Seal Magic, Vengeance procs, Brynhildir, etc.
Sakura vs. Elise
Elise 2HKOs, Sakura doesn't.

Xander vs. Camilla
Bolt Axe x2 + Savage Blow + Bolt Axe?
Xander vs. Leo
This is not going to turn out well.
Xander vs. Elise
At least Xander still OHKOs Elise.

Camilla vs. Leo
Uh, 50/50 on if both if Camilla's Axe strikes hit through weapon triangle disadvantage, she dies horribly if they don't.  (Although I wouldn't be surprised if DK Leo would avoid the 2HKO thanks to better Def + no Trample.)  Guess I'll lean toward her but it's close.
Camilla vs. Elise

Leo vs. Elise
Think Leo barely 2HKOs even through Elise's great resistance thanks to her horrible HP.   There's accuracy woes, but also Brynhildir procs to hype, so eh.

Ryoma, Hinoka, Camilla: 6-2
Corrin: 5-3
Takumi, Leo: 4-4
Sakura, Xander: 2-6
Elise: 1-7

[Random Consonant]

Nohr Noble +spd/-luck stats for my reference since the topic doesn't have them and lol as always using something that can't actually exist
41.0/26.45/20.05/25.45/36*(+1 w/Yato)/14.45/25.0/23.1
20.45 w/Shadow Yato, 13.05 w/Levin Sword, 14.05 w/DS, 25.05 w/DS+, gives her something like +7.5 raw avoid and -2.5 raw hit.
some exceedingly half-assed average tinkering puts spd average at 25.9 and damage average at 20.94/52.35

of course while I don't vote based on Birthright Corrin it's only fair to apply the same treatment to the Birthright cast here so:
42.0/29.45(+4 w/Yato)/16.25/27.25/34*(+5 w/Yato)/17.25/23.6/11.7
28.45 w/Blazing Yato is all I care about here, so we get 29.77 avg spd and damage at 20.74/51.86

Corrin vs. Ryoma - So +spd Corrin doubles, that's the good news.  The bad news is uh Ryoma still has 51% evade (less on subsequent turns granted but still cause for concern) and still has a range advantage so all the doubling is doing is offsetting that.  They 3HKO each other but yeesh Corrin hopes that -luck doesn't matter.  Levin Sword is basically suicide, oh boy a range 2 counter Corrin won't hit with ever in exchange for dat evade drop.
Corrin vs. Hinoka - Hinoka doesn't double +spd Corrin on her own turns (and is getting doubled herself regardless), but WTA is still a thing since Dragonstones sort of don't work out too well here, probably Corrin though, Hinoka offense without doubles is pretty bad and Bolt Naginata isn't helping her much (not too sure about allowing with like 5 potential users but yeesh, 3/5ths of them are just openly terrible with it).
Corrin vs. Takumi - This probably works out.
Corrin vs. Sakura - ORKO, having Levin Sword counters here is just icing.
Corrin vs. Xander - Levin Sword
Corrin vs. Camilla - maybe DS+ x2 would work with +Skl (except this gets trolled by hand axes so no), but certainly not DS -> DS+ (maybe in actual gameplay, but this isn't that), but lol to considering that, she wants +Skl/-whatever in nearly no other matches, anyways Swordbreaker and Corrin getting 2HKO'd means it's dragonstones or bust which... yeah likely not off of that accuracy, except hmm, Camilla doesn't double so I don't think she can manage the effective 3HKO swinging into DS+ so... except Corrin has to land the second hit then since with -luck she doesn't 2HKO at base, which probably doesn't happen so Camilla gets a third swing and--wait why wouldn't Camilla just throw hand axes here, she loses like nothing here by doing so except a bit of non-Savage Blow damage, it's not like Corrin can afford a turn not using dragonstones, yeah this probably works regardless.
Corrin vs. Leo - Needs to dodge either the second of third shot of Nos but she can probably do this.
Corrin vs. Elise - There's going to be a bit of a theme here.

Ryoma vs. Hinoka - WTA says hi
Ryoma vs. Takumi - WTA says hi again
Ryoma vs. Sakura - ORKO
Ryoma vs. Xander - Trying to match counter for counter here is a lost cause, so Xander wants a lance here, this makes Ryoma 8HKO (so, four-round) but his counters absolutely miserable, oh boy something to the tune of a 15HKO, you sticklers for subtractive defense better not see that as mattering since lobsterman looks even worse there, at least crits/astra speed this up which is good because Xander 3HKOs him otherwise, but yeah that's probably enough since Xander will probably whiff at least one attack in the meanwhile.
Ryoma vs. Camilla - Swordbreaker
Ryoma vs. Leo - If Corrin could do it, imagine how much easier it is for lobsterman here
Ryoma vs. Elise - it's okay elise you're still cool

Hinoka vs. Takumi
Hinoka vs. Sakura
Hinoka vs. Xander - Trade out sword for axe, seriously Hinoka Bolt Naginata hits after WTD scares nothing.  I guess if I was sticking to subtractive defense harder this would tilt, but eh, more inclined to be harsh towards bad offense than (mostly) academically bad defense.
Hinoka vs. Camilla - It's hard to argue with an axe to the face
Hinoka vs. Leo
Hinoka vs. Elise

Takumi vs. Sakura - wait im dumb
Takumi vs. Xander
Takumi vs. Camilla - Strictly speaking Silver Yumi doesn't quite rise to the level of OHKO here.
Takumi vs. Leo - Bowbreaker is kind of hilariously irrelevent since the shitbrat has to deal with WTD anyways.
Takumi vs. Elise - Except that doesn't matter here unfortunately

Sakura vs. Xander - Xander vs. mage
Sakura vs. Camilla - uh Camilla just goes first and onerounds her with a lance
Sakura vs. Leo
Sakura vs. Elise

Xander vs. Camilla - Again Xander wants an axe so he can actually hit with a degree of reliability here but Savage Blow is still a thing and Bolt Axe is doing actual damage if he does, he could try for swording to stave that off but then that just gets met by lances putting his hit rate in the shitter.  Granted Trample isn't a thing here (which I forgot to account for, oops im dumb) so Xander might pull this off regardless?  Yeah thinking on it some more he probably can.
Xander vs. Leo - Oh lord.
Xander vs. Elise -

Camilla vs. Leo - Again, lances.
Camilla vs. Elise

Leo vs. Elise - Leo something like 3HKOs, Elise won't even three-round in practice

Corrin: 6-2 (loss: Ryoma, Camilla)
Ryoma: 6-2 (loss: Hinoka, Camilla)
Hinoka: 4-4 (loss: Corrin, Xander, Takumi, Camilla)
Takumi: 2-6 (loss: Corrin, Ryoma, Sakura, Xander, Camilla, Leo)
Sakura: 2-6 (loss: Corrin, Ryoma, Hinoka, Camilla, Leo, Elise)
Xander: 4-4 (loss: Corrin, Ryoma, Sakura, Leo)
Camilla: 7-1 (loss: Xander)
Leo: 4-4 (loss: Corrin, Ryoma, Hinoka, Camilla)
Elise: 1-7 (loss: everyone except Sakura)

[Dark Holy Elf]

Speed for my interps:

Elise +5.3
Hinoka +5.1 (+10.1 on her turn)
Camilla +4.4
Corrin +3.5 (+2.5 with Levin, +0.5 with DS)
Ryoma +2.7
Leo -0.9
Takumi -1.8
Sakura -2.3
Xander -8.1

Voting on Nohr Corrin since that's my general default for multi-path characters.

Corrin vs. Ryoma: Corrin can double Ryoma, but only if Ryoma attacks him, and even then only with Yato. Otherwise I kinda feel like Ryoma has all the cards since he has more evade and base damage, as well as a range advantage unless Corrin wields a Levin Sword.
Corrin vs. Hinoka: Hinoka's opening attack hurts decently (43% to DS Corrin, 56% against Yato). After that, Draconic Hex evens the odds a lot, since Hinoka can't double even on her own turn... but three more swings probably does it. Maybe four? But Corrin needs at least three hits of her own (just two if she got in an opening counter) and Hinoka still has WTA/evade. Corrin wishes magic damage was practical against Hinoka, but it's really not, especially due to Warding Blow.
Corrin vs. Takumi: Doubles even before Hex and has a range advantage; Takumi isn't surviving the second combat here.
Corrin vs. Sakura: Doubles even before Hex, and Sakura misses the 2HKO as well, so yeah.
Corrin vs. Xander: Levin Sword does its terrifying thing. Xander might have a chance if I took Snowfire's advice and voted on Hoshido Corrin here but nah.
Corrin vs. Camilla: Corrin can't 3HKO here since swords are out and dragonstone isn't strong enough, Savage Blow helps Camilla 3HKO at worst even if Corrin goes for tankishness.
Corrin vs. Leo: Leo opens with... let's say Nos at range, gets countered once, Seal Magic and Draconix Hex activate. Corrin now doubles though her magic damage is pretty wretched. Yato it is? She now ORKOs with it... except Nosferatu is a thing which wards that off? Yep. Then finish with Most Accurate Spell. Corrin absolutely must dodge and she... usually will at least once, and I think a third Yato swing will kill regardless, at least with the initial Levin counter in there. Close?
Corrin vs. Elise: Elise goes first but only 3HKOs and will miss once, so 4HKO at best. Corrin meanwhile should hit 2/2. Elise is very close to dodging once but I think Draconic Hex's -8 avo hit puts that away.

Ryoma vs. Hinoka: Okay, no Draconic Hex should make these easier. Hinoka doubles on her own turn, Ryoma has a range advantage; ends up meaning they trade hits (and Duelist's Blow isn't relevant). Hinoka needs four hits (six attacks against ~1/3 evade), Ryoma needs three (six attacks against ~1/2 evade). Hinoka's hits coming first should trump any advantage of Astra, but it's rather close.
Ryoma vs. Takumi: This is ugly.
Ryoma vs. Sakura: Definitely feels like Ryoma is just gonna crush the non-Heavies. Here they actually both 2HKO each other but one has way more evade.
Ryoma vs. Xander: Xander needs three hits, Ryoma needs seven... but doubling closes most of that gap, and crazy evade difference closes the rest.
Ryoma vs. Camilla: Yeah Swordbreaker makes this one moot.
Ryoma vs. Leo: Nosferatu counters literally have 0 hit. To my great surprise Leo actually isn't doubled here but Ryoma still 3HKOs him. Leo 2HKOs but if either of his first two attacks miss he's dead due to his counters being worthless, and he only hits half the time, RIP.
Ryoma vs. Elise: The ugly: Ryoma OHKOs.

Hinoka vs. Takumi: Hinoka needs a Guard Naginata to avoid a OHKO. And Guard x2 + Silver x2 doesn't kill average, let alone above average pdur with WTA.
Hinoka vs. Sakura; Archer Sakura would be interesting here maybe, Onmyoji just gets dunked on.
Hinoka vs. Xander: Three doubled Bolt Naginatas should do it, Xander needs three attacks of his own and accuracy/evasion favours Hinoka regardless.
Hinoka vs. Camilla: Hinoka doubles, but Hand Axe either enjoys range advantage or Bolt Naginata at WTD fails it up. And Camilla certainly does more per hit, plus Savage Blow.
Hinoka vs. Leo: They trade hits (doubling vs range) but Hinoka mdur and evasion and weapon triangle are all a thing.
Hinoka vs. Elise: Doubles and 2HKOs.

Takumi vs. Sakura: The votes the other way make me feel like I'm missing something, but... both 2HKO each other, Sakura has a range advantage, and WTA means she should hit.
Takumi vs. Xander: Range advantage, does more per hit due to durability difference.
Takumi vs. Camilla: Takumi OHKOs an average flier, Camilla ORKOs an average person she doubles. Both are tanky enough to ward that off and survive one turn, but Camilla goes first in the battle to complete the 2HKO. She can use bronze to ward off misses/crits.
Takumi vs. Leo: Everything lines up here pretty well for Leo: WTA, Bowbreaker (though Takumi accuracy still good, so not too relevant), hitting Takumi's res, etc.
Takumi vs. Elise: OHKO.

Sakura vs. Xander: Doubles and 2HKOs.
Sakura vs. Camilla: Doubles and 2HKOs.
Sakura vs. Leo: One has great mdur, one has surprisingly trashy mdur.
Sakura vs. Elise: Kinda the same story here.

Xander vs. Camilla: No Trample and WTD make that Bolt Axe pretty damn weak, though res salvages it a little... to the point where she'll probably kill in the fourth or fifth combat. Thait said Swordbreaker hurts Xander's offence pretty bad the other way. He'll 3HKO but probably needs 4 hits. Camilla could regain a lot of evade by switching to another weapon, pushing Xander to 6 hits, but then he has a range advantage to offset doubling and Camilla probably needs like 8+ hits of her own with anything physical.
Xander vs. Leo: Doubled by magic damage.
Xander vs. Elise: Doubled by- wait, he OHKOs thanks to Chivalry.

Camilla vs. Leo: Leo absolutely must land his first two hits and thanks to WTD that's not terribly likely?
Camilla vs. Elise: Elise 3HKOs and Camilla 2HKOs (or OHKOs with an axe but that could be dicy), but with the Javelin opener Camilla should be set at worst.

Leo vs. Elise: Leo mdur wins another one.

Camilla 7-1
Hinoka 6-2
Ryoma 6-2
Corrin 5-3
Leo 4-4
Xander 3-5
Sakura 2-6
Takumi 2-6
Elise 1-7

[SnowFire]

Amusing that a fairly different list of assumptions comes out mostly the same in the end as far as win-loss records, if not specifics of who wins where. 

(Also, for non-Elf/Random folks, came up in chat, but I'm pretty strongly inclined to ignore new weapon types gained on Heart Seal usage, maybe even no bronze hype.  Pretty eh on Heart Seal usage to begin with.  I could maybe be convinced to allow bronze, but in CQ at least, I know I was really bad at building up alternate weapon types.  That's why my votes were largely ignoring stuff like Camilla lance / Xander Axe hype.  Although I probably should have given Xander lance hype at least, though not sure if it turns the Camilla matchup in his favor enough for me, even with Trample not working.  Javelins are just not very impressive and he's getting Savagely Blown.)

Elf: If you're curious, I was taking the numbers straight-up from the stat topic, so Takumi apparently OHKOs Sakura - it's 29.5 damage off Silver, Sakura has ~31 HP and slightly below average defense.  Takumi gets owned in the face by Sakura if she shoots first but is barely alive afterward, HP salvaging questionable Res.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Ah yeah, that's a notable difference and does make everyone relatively more damaging here, since average HP is well below the kill point of 52ish.

Takumi does lose 2 damage against magic but I think, taking your interpretations, that he barely still OHKOs.

Bronze is often legit in these matchups, especially if you give crits more credit than I since hey +10 crit evade is nice. But even if you don't, they have the desired weapon triangle concern and nice accuracy. Most of the secondary weapons I was considering were bronze actually, I want to say. And getting secondary weapons to D rank is really quite easy, which unlocks iron/thrown weapons too.