Futurama 2019 Season 3, Week 2

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Raksha (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters) vs Alyssa L’Salle (Cosmic Star Heroine)
Elc (Arc the Lad II) vs Selvaria (Valkyria Chronicles)
Tir McDohl (Suikoden) vs Elwen (Radiata Stories)
Ryu (Breath of Fire IV) vs Julia (Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War)

Heavy

Lyndis (Fire Emblem: Blazing Sword) vs Delthea (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia)
Hrist Valkyrie (Valkyrie Profile 2: Silmeria) vs Celica (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia)
Beowulf Kadmus (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Wain (Lufia: The Legend Returns)
Chemist (Final Fantasy V) vs Bacchus D-79 (Star Ocean: The Last Hope)

Middle

Blanca (Shadow Hearts: Covenant) vs Carol Anderson (Wild ARMs 5)
Axl (Mega Man X Command Mission) vs Elise (Fire Emblem Fates)
Lucca Ashtear (Chrono Trigger) vs Machias Regnitz (Trails of Cold Steel)
Raynie (Radiant Historia) vs Hilda Goneril (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)

Light

Sothe (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Dorothea Arnault (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
Kongol (Legend of Dragoon) vs Soldier (Dragon Quest III)
Poshul (Chrono Cross) vs Gen (Child of Light)
Kain Highwind (Final Fantasy IV) vs Sancho (Front Mission 4)

[superaielman]

Godlike

Elc (Arc the Lad II) vs Selvaria (Valkyria Chronicles)- Selvaria? Tank? Loooooooooooool. No.
Tir McDohl (Suikoden) vs Elwen (Radiata Stories)- I don't think Elwen can survive two Judgments and I see Tir going first, so it's a matter of if she OHKOs Tir. Kneejerk is that she can't due to evasion (And having trouble taking RS damage averages literally) but I can see the argument there.

Heavy

Beowulf Kadmus (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Wain (Lufia: The Legend Returns)- About as bad a draw as Wain could get. He really does not like status.


Light

Kongol (Legend of Dragoon) vs Soldier (Dragon Quest III)- ID on Kongol's damage is enough. I suspect Soldier would win the slugfest without that due to ITD damage reflection and being faster after turn one, but there is no way they're slugging down Kongol before the ID lands.

Kain Highwind (Final Fantasy IV) vs Sancho (Front Mission 4)- Blood Spear. Sancho is has really awful evasion and damage.  I am going to be very sad if I have to figure out Kain vs Kongol so hopefully that horror doesn't come to pass.

[SnowFire]

Heavy

Lyndis (Fire Emblem: Blazing Sword) vs Delthea (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia)
Lyn is +7 AS vs. average (in Elf's equal XP topic).  Delthea is +9 AS vs. average with Fire, or +8 AS vs. average with Seraphim.  If we say 0.5 and 3.5 are the doubling thresholds, we end up with a combined threshold of 2 AS, which means Delthea narrowly on the dot doubles with Fire?  I think that's a Delthea victory unless Lyn gets lucky on evasion.  Lyn has good Luck so her evasion is still decent here at least.  Even if doubling hype is discarded, Delthea can just serve with 95 Hit base Ragnarok which OHKOs Lyn.

Hrist Valkyrie (Valkyrie Profile 2: Silmeria) vs Celica (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia)
PC Hrist loses horribly due to counters.  That said, boss Hrist allegedly resists most elements by 50%?  Even if that's thrown out, it's pretty tricky for Celica to chip Hrist to 51% HP off her attack & counter then try to OHKO with Ragnarok or something, Hrist is kinda too tanky for that strat to work.

Middle

Lucca Ashtear (Chrono Trigger) vs Machias Regnitz (Trails of Cold Steel)
Lucca can burn through Iron MQ before running out of MP, I'm sure.  Yeah, Stone status isn't in CT, but not inclined to let this slip through since there's lots of blocking for relevant enemies in CS2.
EDIT: See Random.  Huh, Machias might be Heavy after all, unless Iron's reduction goes down a lot faster than I think it does.
Raynie (Radiant Historia) vs Hilda Goneril (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
Raynie can obviously go for turn 1 sleep and hope for the best, but let's imagine the other options.  It's an initiative headache.  They're both average initiative, but Warrior's movement isn't great, and Raynie is up against heavily speed-optimized characters in the stat topic, so inclined to give it to Raynie.  She wants to wait, but can't, since Hilda just chips with a Short Axe if Raynie passes.  Anyway, Raynie 2HKOs, but if G-Fire & friends are seen as range-2, Hilda wins off Short Axe counter + Iron Axe double.  If G-Fire is range 3+, then Hilda doesn't KO with just an Iron Axe double, so Raynie completes her 2HKO first.  Since Raynie might have a safe win here, and has a 75% chance win anyway...

Light

Sothe (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Dorothea Arnault (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
I think Sothe narrowly doesn't double Levin Sword Dorothea here for me (halfshift average, but willing to give him some more levels than the equal XP topic).  I'm also inclined to take FE ranges somewhat literally so Dorothea outranges Sothe's counters and regens.  Unless he gets Bane turn 1 or something...

Kongol (Legend of Dragoon) vs Soldier (Dragon Quest III)
I'll buy super's argument.

Poshul (Chrono Cross) vs Gen (Child of Light)
Poshul is...  kinda tanky?  Gen's a character who's good at murdering frail (Paralyze) or poor-damage control (Battle Cry) characters, but CC has good damage control and he apparently wasn't frail, so current kneejerk.

[Random Consonant]

Godlike

Elc (Arc the Lad II) vs Selvaria (Valkyria Chronicles) - I guess?
Ryu (Breath of Fire IV) vs Julia (Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War) - Piercing Loptyr isn't quite the same as hitting weaknesses on dragons, no.  This said it looks like Juila 7-rounds Kaiser but has counters, while Ryu 2HKOs but runs into 60% evasion, but goes first (-0.00 SD vs. foot person in FE4 is not something I'm going to resolve in favor of FE4).  Yeah I think it's his.

Heavy

Lyndis (Fire Emblem: Blazing Sword) vs Delthea (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia) - Delthea should by all rights be going second since her threat range is bad (notably this means no Ragnarok OHKO hype since she almost certainly won't have the HP to cast it) but... Lyn does still get doubled by Fire by any logic I'd consider and she does need to dodge at least three of them.  Do I see that happening?   I... don't think I do, actually.
Beowulf Kadmus (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Wain (Lufia: The Legend Returns) - L3 PC vs. status does not end well for the L3 PC, as a rule.

Middle

Blanca (Shadow Hearts: Covenant) vs Carol Anderson (Wild ARMs 5) - Draining vs. SH, part whatever.
Lucca Ashtear (Chrono Trigger) vs Machias Regnitz (Trails of Cold Steel) - Even ignoring petrify... Machias can just reapply regen via Earth Pulse <_<.  Lucca has no way to make headway whatsoever unless I've missed something, she can only overpower the regen with Flare at the start and even then not by much thanks to the damage reduction, which in turn limits how well she can conserve MP for some kind of push.  Unless we're hyping WONDERSHOT CRITS here in which case I feel petrification is morally justified.

Light
Poshul (Chrono Cross) vs Gen (Child of Light) - Probably the outcome here.
Kain Highwind (Final Fantasy IV) vs Sancho (Front Mission 4) - I've seen you before.

[SnowFire]

Hmm, I might have underestimated Machias's Iron game and overestimated Lucca's damage (I think the CT stat topic was edited a few times since?  Lucca has exactly-a-2HKO vs. average now, I think she used to be a little better?).  If Lucca just starts blasting - that's .50 PCHP vs. average, Machias is 1.04 MDur, so Lucca deals .25 PCHP damage of which ~.21 PCHP is immediately regen'd.  Well.  Yeah, Lucca will run dry of MP before blasting through that with Flares.  Machias offense is truly awful, but Saintly Force'd S-Crafts and physicals will eventually do the trick with the massive amount of time he has, that should win before 4x max Wonder Shot damage hits in a row or the like.

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike
Raksha (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters) vs Alyssa L’Salle (Cosmic Star Heroine)- Raksha has last strike and Alyssa does like 2.5 PC HP damage or something on turn 2. Smash.
Elc (Arc the Lad II) vs Selvaria (Valkyria Chronicles)
Tir McDohl (Suikoden) vs Elwen (Radiata Stories)- Elwen has 1.45 PC HP damage, and Tir has more concrete Pdur than even without evade, so Elwen doesn't OHKO. Tir does 2HKO her (not by much, but he does). He's just slightly on the right side of the 2 checks he needs.

Main character smash!

Heavy
Beowulf Kadmus (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Wain (Lufia: The Legend Returns)

Middle
Blanca (Shadow Hearts: Covenant) vs Carol Anderson (Wild ARMs 5)- Don't have a calculator to math it out easier, but gut reaction that Life Drain forces Blanca into losing all his SP. Blanca doesn't have the damage to punch through. He really wishes that Colorful Comb actually did anything
Lucca Ashtear (Chrono Trigger) vs Machias Regnitz (Trails of Cold Steel)- It's Lucca in Middle (she's like a 2.8 to me). She spoils or she loses.

For Snowfire, these are my notes on Machias' practical regen effect from my stat topic

>>>Damage taken after 5 turns (Assuming no Double Turns)
>>>43% PC HP damage ->No Damage, 50%-> 45%, 60%-> 87%; 70%->5HKO; 80%->4HKO; 90%-110% ->3HKO; 120%->2HKOed

Light
Poshul (Chrono Cross) vs Gen (Child of Light)[- So Poshul does 2HKO. Gen does have a bit above average evade, which could cut damage a little (actually, if Poshul misses even one lead up attack, I think he'll fail to 2HKO. Granted, CC damage average is overrated because I didn't factor in accuracy, but Poshul's accuracy is also slightly worse than normal). I think Poshul giving Gen 3 turns is definitely bad news. Might need access to a calculator to really math it out more easily.

[Luther Lansfeld]

Godlike

Raksha (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters) vs Alyssa L’Salle (Cosmic Star Heroine)
Elc (Arc the Lad II) vs Selvaria (Valkyria Chronicles)
Tir McDohl (Suikoden) vs Elwen (Radiata Stories)
Ryu (Breath of Fire IV) vs Julia (Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War) - Does Naga hit weakness on dragons? I can't find any evidence that it does, despite its appearance in FEH. Otherwise I think Ryu wins.

Heavy

Lyndis (Fire Emblem: Blazing Sword) vs Delthea (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia)
Hrist Valkyrie (Valkyrie Profile 2: Silmeria) vs Celica (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia)
Beowulf Kadmus (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Wain (Lufia: The Legend Returns)
Chemist (Final Fantasy V) vs Bacchus D-79 (Star Ocean: The Last Hope)

Middle

Blanca (Shadow Hearts: Covenant) vs Carol Anderson (Wild ARMs 5)
Axl (Mega Man X Command Mission) vs Elise (Fire Emblem Fates)
Lucca Ashtear (Chrono Trigger) vs Machias Regnitz (Trails of Cold Steel)
Raynie (Radiant Historia) vs Hilda Goneril (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)

Light

Sothe (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Dorothea Arnault (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
Kongol (Legend of Dragoon) vs Soldier (Dragon Quest III)
Poshul (Chrono Cross) vs Gen (Child of Light)
Kain Highwind (Final Fantasy IV) vs Sancho (Front Mission 4)

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike

Raksha (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters) vs Alyssa L’Salle (Cosmic Star Heroine): Alyssa easily wins on turn 2 and Raksha does indeed have last strike, but Raksha also has 178% average speed so he gets two turns... but yeah never mind Heroine Aura is better than I remembered, she just uses that and tanks.
Ryu (Breath of Fire IV) vs Julia (Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War): Julia is Godlike? Holy shit, what. *checks stat topic* Okay that tome she has for 3 seconds is pretty good I guess. Anyway, I suspect Random's analysis works for me.

Heavy

Lyndis (Fire Emblem: Blazing Sword) vs Delthea (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia): Wow, Delthea is the one doubling here, did not expect that. Lyn probably goes first and 2HKOs, Delthea gets a doublecounter of Lyn's choice and then a double Fire. She's 2HKOed even by Delthea's physical (Echoes is so silly, shared Str+Mag means Delthea is a physical powerhouse) so she'd need to dodge three out of four, and that's not happening.
Hrist Valkyrie (Valkyrie Profile 2: Silmeria) vs Celica (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia): Hard to counter when you're a statue.
Chemist (Final Fantasy V) vs Bacchus D-79 (Star Ocean: The Last Hope): If Chemist is seen as immune to Stun she might well be able to turn this into an infinite stall-fest... which she'd still lose because Bacchus is truly infinite while Chemist runs out of items eventually. That said, stun immunity is something which SO4 enemies don't have (just resistance, I'm pretty sure) so I'm not inclined to see FF5's universal blocker covering similar but not identical statuses to be good enough for full immunity here either.

Middle

Blanca (Shadow Hearts: Covenant) vs Carol Anderson (Wild ARMs 5): Drain while the SP goes down.
Axl (Mega Man X Command Mission) vs Elise (Fire Emblem Fates): Yikes, probably OHKOs. Elise might survive over 50% of the time due to evade+damage res, but then he's invincible for a turn and can try for a finisher. So... probably.
Raynie (Radiant Historia) vs Hilda Goneril (Fire Emblem: Three Houses): I'm inclined to hype Cha as status resistance, so Hilda's gonna laugh at sleep... but she still loses. See Snowfire's analysis except with one disagreement: Hilda isn't doubling even with Iron, as she's +3.4 average AS, which doesn't double average, which Raynie is. So this is a simple "Raynie goes first and 2HKOs first, since Hilda can't 2HKO with the help of a counter".

Light

Sothe (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Dorothea Arnault (Fire Emblem: Three Houses): Dorothea sits there with her Levin Sword out, regenerating 20% per turn. Sothe does like 35% to her, he kills himself before killing her. GJ. Well, I guess Bane may put a hole in this strategy, but if Dorothea is seen as able to get around counters, and I'm inclined to agree she can, this doesn't matter.
Poshul (Chrono Cross) vs Gen (Child of Light): Abstain for now.

[DragonKnight Zero]

Kain Highwind (Final Fantasy IV) vs Sancho (Front Mission 4)

  I've played both.  Wooo, a slapfight.  Numbers time.

  Blood lance has 88 raw attack and is effective against Giants and Flan types though the strength loss will knock off 2 or 3 in practice.  With it and +5 Str headgear and bodywear, this results in 9x 115 at 36% accuracy on the stat screen at stat topic level.  Jumping with it doubles attack to 230 and boosts accuracy to 65%.  On a target with 10 Def., this will average out to be 9x 277 x0.65 -> 1620 damage per Blood lance jump.  Less than half average though draining.

  I don't think Sancho can outpace this even if one sees his armor class resisting Kain's attacks.  I'm inclined to scale Sancho to the 3rd UCS upgrade set and it still doesn't appear he can make any damage stick.  Kain's evasion just makes things worse, even if he is tanking his raw defense.

[Tide]

Heavy
Lyndis (Fire Emblem: Blazing Sword) vs Delthea (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia) - Seems to be the concensus, though, I'd really like to understand the reasoning. Why are we allowing a 2 AS differences against average to double here? Is it due to Echoes wonky Speed mechanics?
Hrist Valkyrie (Valkyrie Profile 2: Silmeria) vs Celica (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia) - Hrist is one of the more accurate members of the entire game. The stone proc kicking in is a 74% on turn 1 to boot so pretty sure this is hers sans seeing Celica going first + OHKOing.


Middle
Blanca (Shadow Hearts: Covenant) vs Carol Anderson (Wild ARMs 5) - SH healers against other healers is bad times. Blanca has no way to break through the draining.
Axl (Mega Man X Command Mission) vs Elise (Fire Emblem Fates) - If nothing else, Stealth Hyper mode gives Axl the time he needs for a high WE finisher
Lucca Ashtear (Chrono Trigger) vs Machias Regnitz (Trails of Cold Steel) - Vigil hats stop everything Machias can do...and Lucca probably still loses. She needs a consecutive series of crits in a row because otherwise Machias just restores all his HP from the Regen. His offense is terrible himself but the flip side is that Lucca can't heal herself so she'll either get out-resourced straight up or die after a million pellet rounds poke her to death.


Light
Kain Highwind (Final Fantasy IV) vs Sancho (Front Mission 4) - I am eagerly awaiting for Super to taste his own medicine in a match where I cannot vote.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Seems to be the concensus, though, I'd really like to understand the reasoning. Why are we allowing a 2 AS differences against average to double here? Is it due to Echoes wonky Speed mechanics?

In Echoes, you only need +1 speed to double. For me, personally, when two FEs with different doubling thresholds fight, I average the threshold required, so in this case that's (0.5+3.5)/2 = 2 (using half a point below the nominal threshold because of how rounding would work).

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike

Raksha (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters) vs Alyssa L’Salle (Cosmic Star Heroine): Alyssa easily wins on turn 2 and Raksha does indeed have last strike, but Raksha also has 178% average speed so he gets two turns... but yeah never mind Heroine Aura is better than I remembered, she just uses that and tanks.

Oddly enough, if Raksha 2HKOed her it would make the match even clearer. She'd enter Desperation and get a damage boost that would more than offset the loss of the style and do even worse overkill damage.

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Raksha (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters) vs Alyssa L’Salle (Cosmic Star Heroine)- No vote.
Elc (Arc the Lad II) vs Selvaria (Valkyria Chronicles)- No vote.
Tir McDohl (Suikoden) vs Elwen (Radiata Stories)
Ryu (Breath of Fire IV) vs Julia (Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War)

Heavy

Lyndis (Fire Emblem: Blazing Sword) vs Delthea (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia)
Hrist Valkyrie (Valkyrie Profile 2: Silmeria) vs Celica (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia)
Beowulf Kadmus (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Wain (Lufia: The Legend Returns)
Chemist (Final Fantasy V) vs Bacchus D-79 (Star Ocean: The Last Hope)

Middle

Blanca (Shadow Hearts: Covenant) vs Carol Anderson (Wild ARMs 5)
Axl (Mega Man X Command Mission) vs Elise (Fire Emblem Fates)
Lucca Ashtear (Chrono Trigger) vs Machias Regnitz (Trails of Cold Steel)
Raynie (Radiant Historia) vs Hilda Goneril (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)

Light

Sothe (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Dorothea Arnault (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
Kongol (Legend of Dragoon) vs Soldier (Dragon Quest III)
Poshul (Chrono Cross) vs Gen (Child of Light)
Kain Highwind (Final Fantasy IV) vs Sancho (Front Mission 4)- No vote.

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Raksha (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters) vs Alyssa L’Salle (Cosmic Star Heroine)- ii
Elc (Arc the Lad II)- iii vs Selvaria (Valkyria Chronicles)
Tir McDohl (Suikoden)- iii vs Elwen (Radiata Stories)
Ryu (Breath of Fire IV)- iiii vs Julia (Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War)

Heavy

Lyndis (Fire Emblem: Blazing Sword)- ii vs Delthea (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia)- iiiii
Hrist Valkyrie (Valkyrie Profile 2: Silmeria)- iiiii vs Celica (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia)
Beowulf Kadmus (Final Fantasy Tactics)- iiii vs Wain (Lufia: The Legend Returns)
Chemist (Final Fantasy V) vs Bacchus D-79 (Star Ocean: The Last Hope)- iii

Middle

Blanca (Shadow Hearts: Covenant) vs Carol Anderson (Wild ARMs 5)- iiiiii
Axl (Mega Man X Command Mission)- iiii vs Elise (Fire Emblem Fates)
Lucca Ashtear (Chrono Trigger) vs Machias Regnitz (Trails of Cold Steel)- iiiii
Raynie (Radiant Historia)- iiii vs Hilda Goneril (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)

Light

Sothe (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Dorothea Arnault (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)- iiii
Kongol (Legend of Dragoon)- iii vs Soldier (Dragon Quest III)
Poshul (Chrono Cross)- i vs Gen (Child of Light)- iii
Kain Highwind (Final Fantasy IV)- iiii vs Sancho (Front Mission 4)