Proving Grounds Heavy: The strong, silent type

[SnowFire]

More stat topics for Proving Grounds new blood!

The opponents are exclusively taken from the actual season 56 & season 57 Heavy & Godlike here for this set's gimmick.  Threw out some weirdos and obscura (no thanks, AtLC Diekbeck), of course.  ( http://www.rpgdl.com/tournament/seasontree.php?season=57 & http://www.rpgdl.com/tournament/seasontree.php?season=56 if you're curious!)

* Luminary (Dragon Quest XI) - Much like his personality, Luminary lets life come at him and takes things in stride with some excellent stall tactics.  Speed is nothing special though.
* Mario (Mario + Rabbids) - I'm sure Mario & a DQ hero could have a scintillating conversation consisting entirely of nods Yes and "Let's-a-go" type slogans.  Also lots of damage apparently.
* Golbez (FF4 The After Years) - Lots of damage, a paralysis game, and surprisingly high evasion.
* Olberic (Octopath Traveler) - While needing three turns to kill in Heavy is not ideal, it is some unholy overkill that happens with initiative on that third turn, so you better defeat this fallen knight in two turns.  Or shrug off physical damage.
* Ness (Earthbound) - DL control, silent-ish main, and eventual winner of Season 57 Heavy.  Time to relive the nightmare.

Luminary (DQ11) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)
Luminary vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
Luminary vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)
Luminary vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)

Luminary vs. Artea (Lufia 2)
Luminary vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Luminary vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)
Luminary vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)

Luminary vs. Suicune (Pokemon)
Luminary vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics)
Luminary vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)
Luminary vs. Elly (Xenogears)


Mario (Mario+Rabbids) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)
Mario vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
Mario vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)
Mario vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)

Mario vs. Artea (Lufia 2)
Mario vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Mario vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)
Mario vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)

Mario vs. Suicune (Pokemon)
Mario vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics)
Mario vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)
Mario vs. Elly (Xenogears)


Golbez (FF4 The After Years) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)
Golbez vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
Golbez vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)
Golbez vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)

Golbez vs. Artea (Lufia 2)
Golbez vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Golbez vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)
Golbez vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)

Golbez vs. Suicune (Pokemon)
Golbez vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics)
Golbez vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)
Golbez vs. Elly (Xenogears)


Olberic (Octopath Traveler) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)
Olberic vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
Olberic vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)
Olberic vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)

Olberic vs. Artea (Lufia 2)
Olberic vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Olberic vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)
Olberic vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)

Olberic vs. Suicune (Pokemon)
Olberic vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics)
Olberic vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)
Olberic vs. Elly (Xenogears)


Ness (Earthbound) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)
Ness vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
Ness vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)
Ness vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)

Ness vs. Artea (Lufia 2)
Ness vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Ness vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)
Ness vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)

Ness vs. Suicune (Pokemon)
Ness vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics)
Ness vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)
Ness vs. Elly (Xenogears)



If you want to use find & replace to create your own set...
YY vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)
YY vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
YY vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)
YY vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)

YY vs. Artea (Lufia 2)
YY vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
YY vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)
YY vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)

YY vs. Suicune (Pokemon)
YY vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics)
YY vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)
YY vs. Elly (Xenogears)

[Random Consonant]

Golbez (FF4 The After Years) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)
Golbez vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10) - Ever so slightly faster than Flare or Pressure resolving.
Golbez vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4) - Flare might not OHKO Chaz if he sets up for Mdef... but paralysis isn't resisted by psyshields so I don't think it matters, Chaz gets one shot at Explode and it checks a stat Golbez is good at.
Golbez vs. Artea (Lufia 2) - I think someone claimed Artea's mdur is underrated by the stat topic, but even by the figure I remember being cited I don't think he avoids getting Flare'd.
Golbez vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Golbez vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3) - Scrapes that OHKO.
Golbez vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2) - Not with my level of SH2 boss respect.
Golbez vs. Suicune (Pokemon) - Yeah he has a 3-2 on any of Golbez's strats to me and allowing berries means he gets those turns no matter what.
Golbez vs. Rofel (Final Fantasy Tactics) - Maybe if Golbez couldn't immune silence.
Golbez vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7) - think so.
Golbez vs. Elly (Xenogears) - Doesn't look like he can block sleep though so rip.

5-6.  Yeah, he's pretty solidly heavy.  Doesn't win quickdraw matches like ever though and I don't think he's that close to the border, needing to resolve your winning stuff at 70% speed doesn't give you that much room given the fairly unspecial durability and status holes.

Ness (Earthbound) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4) - Magic's argument is somewhat compelling, but it ignores A) FF4's rather large magic damage instability and B) Zeromus likely having a very large speed advantage over Ness.  As is, Ness just seems to be under constant threat of heal lock once Zeromus gets knocked into Flare range.  Edit: okay doing some digging suggests that Zeromus has 69 speed which is honestly too much even if not taken fully at face value.
Ness vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10) - Doublecast Death sneers at the idea of Ness outracing.
Ness vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4) - Explode.
Ness vs. Artea (Lufia 2) - No bunny ring.
Ness vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Ness vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3) - Vast resource difference here.
Ness vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2) - Freaking Seal.
Ness vs. Suicune (Pokemon) - ID gets there fast enough to me.  Pretty sure Ness loses this if hold resistant/immunes against it though
Ness vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics) - Edit: errr wait Silence Song still has a charge time and yeah don't think I'm on board with Rofel's HP being good enough to survive PSI Rocking Omega, as not good at damage as it is, never mind.
Ness vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7) - Probably.  A L3 will end Ness if he runs into one but he should be able to avoid doing so.
Ness vs. Elly (Xenogears)

5-6.  Yeah he has way too many issues with status and his own poor damage to be much of a borderliner either.

Lucas (Mother 3) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4) - If Ness couldn't pull it off, I'm not sure why I should think Lucas, who is notably slower and less durable, has a prayer.
Lucas vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
Lucas vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)
Lucas vs. Artea (Lufia 2) - yeah not with like turn 10 ID off of that turnsplit
Lucas vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Lucas vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3) - Land of Eternity ain't slower than Lucas.
Lucas vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2) - Nope.
Lucas vs. Suicune (Pokemon) - Really unsure how Lucas actually stops Suicune from Calm Minding x6 and just OHKOing him with Hydro Pump, PSI Counter be damned.
Lucas vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics) - I really don't have much in the way of FFT boss HP respect.
Lucas vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7) - This much, Lucas can handle, however.
Lucas vs. Elly (Xenogears)

2-8.  Well at least he has damage.  His speed's awful though, and he doesn't have nearly Ness's resource depth or durability

Kumatora (Mother 3) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4) - l o l n o
Kumatora vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10) - Yeah I don't allow the drop/steal customization options which means Lulu gets to be a sleepy girl.
Kumatora vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4) - Don't think this works out on average.
Kumatora vs. Artea (Lufia 2) - Second verse, same as the first.  Confusion's a thought but she's slower so I don't think this works out.
Kumatora vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5) - You snooze, you lose.
Kumatora vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3) - respect for yellow scarf against confusion not found.
Kumatora vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2) - Seal claims another victim.
Kumatora vs. Suicune (Pokemon) - ...yeah honestly.  Suicune doesn't get Safeguard and doesn't 2HKO.
Kumatora vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics) - Really not down for respecting FFT boss HP.
Kumatora vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7) - uh both are negligably below average speed so it depends on who goes first here and I don't know how I feel about that today.
Kumatora vs. Elly (Xenogears) - You people really need to start bringing sleep immunity or something.

5-5.  2HKO damage and some status shenanigans.

[Dhyerwolf]

Golbez (FF4 The After Years) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)- Magic Counters and such
Golbez vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
Golbez vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)- While Nel has evil MP damage, Golbez for obvious reasons has excellent MP...assuming she even hit
Golbez vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)- Even for the more traditional status view, Golbez's Mdef and flat out MEva is likely enough to avoid a turn 1 Death

Golbez vs. Artea (Lufia 2)
Golbez vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Golbez vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)- OHKO
Golbez vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)- Evadable physical v Golbez is not a great strategy

Golbez vs. Suicune (Pokemon)
Golbez vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics)
Golbez vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)- OHKO
Golbez vs. Elly (Xenogears)- Golbez doesn't block Sleep EDIT: Looking at this, Elly has a 60% chance of hitting turn 1. I don't have XG enemy status resistance notes, but I bet if I did Golbez would take it.


Ness (Earthbound) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)- Falling back to a like 6HKO to avoid magic counters doesn't seem like it would work well in the long run once Zeromus is in Flare zone
Ness vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
Ness vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)- Freeze doesn't care about damage reduction
Ness vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)

Ness vs. Artea (Lufia 2)- Runs Artea out of MP is my guess
Ness vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Ness vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)
Ness vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)- Not even a silence blocker for poor Ness!

Ness vs. Suicune (Pokemon)- Fully comes down to status. Calm Mind spam until OHKO wins, but Sleep could tip...depending on how long it lasts and whether any damage cancels it. Granted, wouldn't be suprised if my status scaling made EB status notably worse, so gut checking this way
Ness vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics)
Ness vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)- Gut check, but I really hope
Ness vs. Elly (Xenogears)

Golbez 6-6. Held his own well enough. Fatal flaw is often status since he loses quickdraws. All the mono Elemental mages were elements he didn't block
Ness 3-9. Golbez's anti physical trick is a bit better (doesn't need a spell cast, doesn't wear off, helps evade physical status), and Ness' damage is a sad thing.

[Tide]

Ness (Earthbound) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4) - Kneejerk.
Ness vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10) - Ness goes first but basically can't do anything except try to use PSI Flash Omega. How much you respect it landing something fatal that Lulu can't block is the question. If you use Dhyer's status views, this is a no-brainer. I think by the numbers, Ness has this on paper, but I really don't respect Flash Omega enough to see this working. Someone can convince me otherwise though.
Ness vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3) - This on the other hand is easy. Freezing Daggers = RIP
Ness vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2) - Saki was around average speed. So unfortunately for Ness, she does get Seal off. But...Saki's HP to me is so *bad* that Ness might 2HKO with Physicals anyway. Sure, I'm willing to give him the bone for this, but god damn.
Ness vs. Suicune (Pokemon) - Cune's the better stallfester. Don't think I respect EB status enough for this (see Lulu)
Ness vs. Rofel (Final Fantasy Tactics) - Silence Song kills Ness dead in the water.
Ness vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7) - Probably. Worse comes to worse, Ness can try firing off a status that Cloud isn't blocking before hand to bypass the limit.
Ness vs. Elly (Xenogears) - Ness has no Sleep blocker.

[Magic Fanatic]

Ness (Earthbound) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4) - Zeromus barely fails to 2HKO with Flare (assuming average damage of 2000), and Ness needs 9 hits with his bat with a PSI Rockin Omega finisher.  Ness has over 30 shots of Lifeup Gamma assuming saving the PP for the last hit, and even HP leak shouldn't be enough to turn the tide - even I don't remember it being that potent.
Ness vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10) - Ness *can* win this, but needs too many calls in his favor in regards to Hypnosis.  If Lulu gets a single turn, Dualcast Death and that's that.
Ness vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3) - Each have turn 2 match-winning status, Nel goes first.
Ness vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4) - Explode, and Chaz goes first.

Ness vs. Artea (Lufia 2) - I'm assuming here that paralysis would shut off the damaging IPs, so Ness just fishes for that until it lands, and then coasts to victory.
Ness vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5) - Each have turn 2 match-winning status, Ernst goes first.
Ness vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3) - Ness has way too much healing for this.
Ness vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2) - Ness would have the resources to take this, buuuuuut Saki can just spam Seal and call it a day.  That said, late-game Shadow Hearts boss, so I can easily see Saki being considered 0.5 PCHP and thus 3HKOed by Ness physicals...  But I'd need to see harder numbers about how that's handled.

Ness vs. Suicune (Pokemon) - Ness equips a Rain Pendant, and probably doesn't even need to heal for this match.
Ness vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics) - Silence Song -> Shellbust Stab (if Ness decided to go for a Crystal Charm) -> Petrify spam.
Ness vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7) - Cloud puts on a Gem Ring so he doesn't instantly lose to paralyze, Ness uses a Crystal Charm for his own Paralysis resistance, and...  Ness still wins, because Cloud 3HKOs at best, and Physical Shields screw with his damage further.  Ice 3 becomes his safest bet for damage, but that's a 5HKO that does not threaten anyone of Ness's HP and resource depth.
Ness vs. Elly (Xenogears) - Beats a sleepy Ness with a Rod until he dies.

5-7.  Well, that's...  Batting average?


Extra matches: let's see how Lucas (Mother 3) does!

Lucas vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4) - Bat thwacks until Zeromus is at .65 PCHP, and then PK Love to finish him off, blowing right past the limit ranges of Flare (.57 PCHP) and Counter Dark Heal (.31 PCHP).
Lucas vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10) - Dualcast Death.  Lucas cannot stop this.
Lucas vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3) - Lucas has an argument to shut down Ice Daggers!  Pity about the wealth of her other options.
Lucas vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4) - Exploder

Lucas vs. Artea (Lufia 2) - Lucas eventually runs out of resources.  Artea doesn't and is way faster.
Lucas vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5) - Turn 2 ID that Lucas can't stop.
Lucas vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3) - Physical -> Love Omega is enough to kill.
Lucas vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2) - Awesome Crown makes Seal turn 2.  Saki kills on turn 2 anyway.

Lucas vs. Suicune (Pokemon) - PSI Counter means this is one of the few matches that Lucas can stall out.
Lucas vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics) - Rofl's first turn needs to be Blastar Punch.  After that, Silence Song and outslug.  Even getting hit with one PK Love Omega shouldn't be enough to kill him.
Lucas vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7) - Counter to stop the physical threat, Lifeup Gamma, and then PK Love Alpha, Beta, and Omega in that order to chip around the limit.  Even then, the Rubber Cape blocks Paralysis, so it's even more clear-cut.
Lucas vs. Elly (Xenogears) - Elly beats a sleepy boy #2

4-8.  I'm seriously wondering if I overestimated Lucas's ability to stand in Heavy, considering this field.


Kumatora vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4) - Doesn't even have the chance Lucas has.
Kumatora vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10) - Sleep and Starstorm.
Kumatora vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3) - I think?  Sleep -> Starstorm x2 would be enough to finish off Nel, but if Nel opens with MP damage, I'm not sure Kumatora has the resources to actually finish this fight.
Kumatora vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4) - Explode

Kumatora vs. Artea (Lufia 2) - See Lucas, but about 100 turns faster
Kumatora vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5) - See Lulu
Kumatora vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3) - Land of Eternity OHKOs, and Sasarai has that Yellow Scarf
Kumatora vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2) - Angel Ribbon means she gets Sealed and outslugged, Boing Ribbon means she just gets straight-up outslugged.

Kumatora vs. Suicune (Pokemon) - Sleep and then Thunder Omega.  Should hit enough in two turns to kill.
Kumatora vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics) - Straight outslug.
Kumatora vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7) - Kumatora equips Rubber Cape, goes first, and Starstorm 2HKOs
Kumatora vs. Elly (Xenogears) - We really need to arrest Elly for how many children she beats to sleep.

4-8.  Did this one mostly for fun, since I already put her in Middle.  Same kind of tiering as Lucas, then?

[superaielman]

Ness vs. Artea (Lufia 2)- Runs Artea out of MP is my guess

Artea can restore MP with IP skills. Silver Mail does it.

[SnowFire]

Luminary (DQ11) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)
Faster 2HKO'ing non-elemental magic is exactly what Luminary doesn't want to see, once Zeromus is reduced to < 50% HP.  Luminary not that great at blitzing the last half.
Luminary vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
More non-elemental flares (Hero immunes ID easily enough, at least).  Luminary really fails at threatening Lulu here, Sleep doesn't really help since Lightning & Fire are both absorbed by Lulu, and his physical game runs into evasion.
Luminary vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)
Inclined to let either ID blocking or 100% Ice Resistance stop Freeze here, either or both of which Luminary can equip, so...   this is a slow match.  However, even if Nel eventually wipes out Luminary's MP, he restores 20 MP a round and only needs 24 MP for a fullheal or less for weaker healing, 8 MP for the occasional Sword Dance for offense, and has a decent block rate he can buff vs. physicals as well as massive elemental resistance for her elemental combos, I'm not sure Nel can ever win here.  She eventually is going to run low on MP herself even if it takes eons.  OTOH, she has enough MP in the tank for 120 heals, so who knows, maybe something crazy can happen in her favor with all that time.


Luminary vs. Artea (Lufia 2)
Arty is nearly 100% elemental, although I guess he can equip a non-elemental weapon and go for beatdown.  At absolute best this is an infinite match if super's MP restoration hype & Arty's healing Luminary can't overwhelm, but Luminary would be much more in the driver's seat for such a slow match and could hope for 3x critical Pep'd Up Sword Dances or the like.
Luminary vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Immune ID, out-stall.
Luminary vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)
Immune Earth while resisting Ice for free, Sasarai fails forever at damage, Silent Lake is suicide.
Luminary vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)
Immune Silence.  Energy Charge'd physical deals 1.15 PCHP, so Luminary should narrowly survive that and heal if he doesn't get a lucky block.

Luminary vs. Suicune (Pokemon)
Rare footage of Extrasensory use by Suicune since Water is getting spoiled, but Psychic type isn't...  not that it matters since Luminary is frying with 2x weakness hitting lightning Kazaps, 1 Calm Mind isn't saving the day here. 
Luminary vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics)
I had a chat with Laggy in Discord about weapon breaking vs. legendary weapons, and mentioned that DQ11 is a rare case where legendary weapons are unambigiously breakable, since this is a plot point...  repeatedly...  in the game.  However it doesn't actually matter here since Luminary will just spam Kazap.  I guess technically Rofel could break Luminary's weapon, then spend 3 turns breaking both accessories & Luminary's helmet, then use Silence Song and hope it hits, and be good...  Rofel just has to survive 5 rounds to do that.  ROFL
Luminary vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)
Hrmm, close, depends on how much limit gauge Cloud is allowed to start with, since Luminary can't block Stop.  He can chip, then Pep Up, switch to a Greatsword, and deal 0.62 PCHP.  That'll beat no starting limit, doesn't beat limits half full, and is pretty close for limits 1/3 full or so (which is probably still a loss, since it's hard to chip perfectly due to damage variance).  I'll give it to Cloud but it's close.
Luminary vs. Elly (Xenogears)
Sleep & elemental blocking.


Olberic (Octopath Traveler) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)
Black Hole is less useful than you think, because Olberic can still use Abide to build BP if Zeromus is spending turns dispelling him back.  Basically Olberic should just spam Abide which means Zeromus is only getting damage turns on double turns, since letting Olberic get off a turn while buffed is an extremely bad idea (maaaybe safe on turn 1->2, that's it), Olberic can OHKO Zeromus with buff'd Brand's Thunder.  So Zeromus needs to win with 3 casts of Virus.  Zeromus has ~1.8 PCHP, Brand's Thunder deals ~1.44 PCHP unbuffed, Spearhead deals ~.17 PCHP unboosted and unbuffed.  So something like this:

Z: Virus
O: Abide
Z: Virus???
O: Spearhead, get initiative
O: Brand's Thunder, dead

Alternatively:
Z: Virus
O: Abide
Z: Black Hole
(repeat until Z doubles)
Z: Virus x2, win

So the question is how fast Zeromus's double comes out, and the possibility of Olberic maybe interrupting the double by using Spearhead the turn before, boosting it with any BP in excess of 3, then aiming for the Brand's Thunder win.  Not sure how much to respect Zeromus speed, so pass for now.  (Note that in the SNES version with bug-for-bug compatability, Olberic wins due to killing Zeromus before the invisible Dark Heal counter kicks in, but not respecting that, that was blatantly a way to give Zeromus an HP over the cap.)

EDIT: Sounds like Zeromus speed hype is legit today.

Olberic vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
Olberic vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)
Olberic vs. deadly turn 1 status.

Olberic vs. Artea (Lufia 2)
Arty doesn't kill in 2 turns, so RIP.
Olberic vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
More ID.
Olberic vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)
Olberic narrowly survives 1x Land of Eternity, and should outrace a 2HKO, and 2HKOs himself.
Olberic vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)
Seal.  Although if you're Tide Olberic can go first and just do a boosted Cross Strike and hope to finish the job with physicals, if Saki's HP is seen as bad enough... 

Olberic vs. Suicune (Pokemon)
Suicune's tanky, but not THAT tanky.
Olberic vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics)
Weapon break = gg
Olberic vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)
Extremely good at chipping.
Olberic vs. Elly (Xenogears)
zzz

Luminary: 8-3
Olberic: 4-7

[Dark Holy Elf]

Mario (Mario+Rabbids) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4): Yeah no. Zeromus 3HKOs faster.
Mario vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10): uhhh
Mario vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3): Freeze, or various other things. She can turtle on turns he uses Hero Sight.
Mario vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4): Explode, or various other things.

Mario vs. Artea (Lufia 2): 2HKOs faster. Or maybe he doesn't 2HKO, actually? Too lazy to look that up. He can heal until IP/doubleturn though, Mario can't ever OHKO him.
Mario vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5): Devouring Jaws, isn't OHKOed (... I think. Having no armour means... it's possible, but the stat topic seems to think his PDef is fine anyway?)
Mario vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3): Land of Eternity OHKO.
Mario vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2): Saki being melee means Mario wants to fire a blaster at her then set Hero Sight, and pray that his Hero Sight procs a Bounce. So Saki uses magic instead. Mario then M-Powers his hammer and goes for broke, which kills average PCs, so I think he probably gets Saki. I guess if you see Saki immune to Bounce she'd take this, but eh, the PCs clearly push her around in-game. Maybe if she had perfect immunity.

Mario vs. Suicune (Pokemon): Too tanky, Mario can't 2HKO that. They 3HKO each other and Suicune is faster.
Mario vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics): Rofel HP sucks but the def is really good, so I doubt Mario OHKOs him, and he's faster with a 2HKO (unless Mario comes in with no weapons, but then he's losing badly).
Mario vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7): Have to think he gets off Cross-Slash at worst.
Mario vs. Elly (Xenogears): Same strategy as Saki, set Hero Sight first turn and rely on Bounce kicking in if Elly goes for an attack, then hammer her for the KO next.

Mario 2-10. I don't think he's Heavy, nothing about him is special except against melee opponents. Average speed low 2HKO with no status immunity and only marginally above average HP isn't up to snuff.


Rabbid Luigi vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4): Even Black Hole + Flare is something Rabbid Luigi can handle, I think, provided Zeromus doesn't always doubleturn. (Yes, Black Hole on a one-turn effect is better than attacking Rabbid Luigi twice through his defensive bullshit).
Rabbid Luigi vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10): Lulu drops Death on Rabbid Luigi turn 2, (when he uses Weaken instead of Super Barrier), and her evade easily keeps her alive until then.
Rabbid Luigi vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3): Heals on turns RL uses Super Barrier, tries to freeze him on turns he uses Weaken.
Rabbid Luigi vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4): Explode.

Rabbid Luigi vs. Artea (Lufia 2): Unless some obscura status IP can take it?
Rabbid Luigi vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5): Instant death should work.
Rabbid Luigi vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3): Sasarai damage is not enough.
Rabbid Luigi vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2): Saki's best bet is to land Seal turn 2, but at that point she's already almost dead. I think three turns of RL offence is just enough.

Rabbid Luigi vs. Suicune (Pokemon): Suicune can buff its damage, but probably not enough in time. Three buffs are needed to reach even 2HKO damage, and that won't be enough against draining unless there's a doubleturn in there. Meanwhile Rabbid Luigi 5HKOs. Does Suicune have a 6:5? ... probably not?
Rabbid Luigi vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics): Don't think I'd let Rofel break weapons through Super Barrier... but he goes first and does so. So Rabbid Luigi offence becomes pretty limited, especially after the secondary weapon gets broken next. At that point RL can only Dash and that just doesn't drain or do enough.
Rabbid Luigi vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7): Super Barrier on the turn he triggers a limit means not even status gets through, and he can tank the rest, except Omnislash, and I doubt he sees that.
Rabbid Luigi vs. Elly (Xenogears): Don't think she's quite squishy enough to be 2HKOed, so she inflicts sleep then.

Rabbid Luigi 6-6. It's an above average Heavy field, so RL feels pretty good, but not overpowered in the division. He really wishes he had a bit more damage so that he could 2HKO slow turn-1 status users and fast turn-2 status users, although Super Barrier did manage to tilt Saki's status due to it not being immediately fatal.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Olberic Eisenberg (Octopath Traveler) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4) - uh goddamn zeromus speed plot. But I don't think it really matters? Olberic doesn't OHKO with Brand's Thunder+Spearhead, I don't think, and Zeromus ain't missing the 3HKO anyway.
Olberic Eisenberg vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10) - Evadable physical fighter who needs tons of setup against -Lulu-.
Olberic Eisenberg vs. Nel Zelpher(Star Ocean 3) - I think turn two freeze does the job here. If not, MP damage may well dry him up.
Olberic Eisenberg vs. Chaz Ashley (Phantasy Star 4) - Well, I'm pretty sure Explode isn't turn one against Olberic STR, but I don't think it's below turn two either.
Olberic Eisenberg vs. Artea (Lufia 2) - Artea doesn't 2HKO and doesn't 4-3, that's game.
Olberic Eisenberg vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5) - Two setup duellers, Ernst's faster.
Olberic Eisenberg vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3) - 2HKOs. Olberic really can't handle anyone who 2HKOs him unless they're Jeremy-level frail.
Olberic Eisenberg vs. Saki Inugami (Shadow Hearts 2) - Seal's a really bad thing for Olberic to be hit with.
Olberic Eisenberg vs. Suicune (Pokemon) - Yeah, they 3HKO each other and that's bad when you get OHKOed by Brand's Thunder.
Olberic Eisenberg vs. Rofl Wodring (Final Fantasy Tactics) - Giving multiple turns to rofl while being vulnerable to all his tricks, great idea
Olberic Eisenberg vs. Cloud Strife (Final Fantasy 7) - Failing to 2HKO Olberic, always a winning proposition.
Olberic Eisenberg vs. Elhaym van Houten (Xenogears) - slp

3-9. I don't think Olberic is much of a Heavy. Needing three turns to land a kill and being complete status bait spells doom too often in the division, even if the death turn is overkill initiative.

Ness (Earthbound) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4) - EDIT: Flare! Yeah, nevermind.
Ness vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10) - lul
Ness vs. Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean 3) - You don't win resource wars against Nel as a rule of thumb, in-between Freeze, MP damage and her own insane MP pool. His best bet is trying a status blitz and uh yeah, he can't even ID or paralyze her and she gives no shits about the damage loss from equipping the statusblockers. He can trivialize her damage -or- arguably protect himself against Freeze (though I don't think so, SO3 has both Stone and Freeze, as does EB, and they're considered different statuses covering different blockers), but not both, which leads him to some unhappy times.
Ness vs. Chaz Ashley (Phantasy Star 4) - Explode happens.
Ness vs. Artea (Lufia 2) - Well, this is the kind of fight where Ness status is actually relevant.
Ness vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5) - Ness ending fights in a single turn usually doesn't happen.
Ness vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3) - Outresources, I s'pose.
Ness vs. Saki Inugami (Shadow Hearts 2) - Silence is -really really bad-. Ness gets outslugged even if he gets Shield up.
Ness vs. Suicune (Pokemon) - Yeah.
Ness vs. Rofl Wodring (Final Fantasy Tactics) - lul silence and breaking
Ness vs. Cloud Strife (Final Fantasy 7) - Cloud kinda bad when he can't paralyze. I guess at LEAST a L3 Ness can dodge, because almost anyone does
Ness vs. Elhaym van Houten (Xenogears) - slp

4-8. Also not that great, but at least he's not as embarrassing. Ness can be nearly impossible to kill, but he's very vulnerable to status and also bad at actually dealing damage. How far we've fallen from the time when he was actually considered a Godlike.

[Dark Holy Elf]

I think I agree with Jo'ou on all of Olberic's matches.

On Olberic vs Zeromus, I reaallly doubt Zeromus is less than a 4:3 against average, and it's entirely possible he's 3:2. He's fast! That's literally the only reason he's competent in-game; if he were slow then Big Bang would be a joke since you'd be able to heal twice between castings of it. So Olberic just buffing is going to get doubleturned pretty fast, and Zeromus wins the moment he doubleturns (opening Bio + two more on the double).

On Olberic vs Sasarai, the stat topic actually makes S3 mages look not that squishy because of so many fighters opting for Chief's Hats instead of max def, so somewhat unintuitively Sasarai ends up over 80% pdur, and thus can survive Spearhead + 2-BP Cross Strike (and Olberic does need Spearhead, because otherwise Sas finishes him with an above-average-speed Earthquake. Though I suspect Cross Strike's marginaly higher damage may not be enough anyway.

I also realize that I slightly overrated Mario's damage in the stat topic, whoops. Accidentally counted his stomp one extra time in both averages. I don't think that changes any of his matches, though, since I'd manually counted his damage for all the close ones... does mean he's even more definitely not Heavy, though.

[Random Consonant]

Yeah I don't think I can see Zeromus with anything less than a 3:2 against average myself given what all we know about FF4 speed, 69 speed is a lot, and if anything it works in a way that favors enemies (at least in the SNES version), which is pretty much the reason why I see him beating Ness (I mean Flare is closer to 1900 on average, but this still is a low 3HKO against him).

[SnowFire]

Fair enough that Zeromus speed hype is legit.  I know I'd have hyped it back in the day, but a lot of bosses with wonky ATB mechanics got assessed downward over time, so good to know his speed is real.

For Olberic vs. Sasarai: I think Olberic should outspeed on turn 2 naturally, though?  Stat topic lists Earthquake as 41 charge time to a 46 charge average.  That's kinda good but not amazing (compare to, say, Hugo's Wind of Sleep at 26 Charge Time).  Olberic is at +0.46 std. devs from average on turns 1 & 2.  While I'm not much for hyping Octopath speed as worth anything for ATB doubles, it is fine as "initiative", and that seems like it should win out on turn 2.  If Olberic outspeeds, then he doesn't need to use Spearhead and can instead use Abide turn 1, which lets him deal a lot more damage.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Abide => Cross Slash is only 335 more damage than Spearhead => Cross Slash - under most interpretations, Olberic probably won't 2HKO Sasarai regardless, since only the strictest one or two-round averages even have the killpoint as low enough to get Sasarai killed by 2.2k Octopath damage - and if you take those averages, Olberic 2HKOs average durability with Spearhead => Cross Slash to begin with. ALSO, I'm very wary myself of considering any Octopath character as anything besides average speed outside of special moves like Spearhead from turn two onwards because of how the game's speed works.

[SnowFire]

Less 8PT speed respect than me, impressive!  I agree they're basically average speed long-term a la Fire Emblem characters, I'm just willing to let their speed stat still count as initiative rather than being totally random, since some other games also have pretty random initiative that we nevertheless take as set in the DL anyway.  For a more dramatic example, Spd-twinked Therion should still usually be going in the first third or so of the turns.  (Note that Suiko3 characters are sorta in the same boat, since aside from spells that take 2 turns to charge, they also only get 1 action a turn.)

I'm using the turn 1/2/3/4 "Natural" average tentatively, so 2480 2.5x killpoint, so Abide -> Cross Strike deals 2285 damage = 0.92 PCHP (unless I did my math wrong).  I know Elf might kneejerk the average a little higher due to holding Olberic against H'aanit's beasts, but Sasarai has ~0.88 PCHP and bad defense, so it'd have to be a significant hit.  (I do agree that Sas should survive under 3-round averages, but eh, Elf argued me off using those.)

[Dark Holy Elf]

Oh yeah, I forgot about Abide -> Cross Slash. That said, I'm of the opinion that speed in systems like Octopath, SMRPG, etc., is garbage past turn 1, because you don't even get the main benefit of initiative in games like S3, Dragon Quest, etc., which is the benefit of knowing the state of the battlefield when you enter your action. Everyone might as well just be average speed from then on, there's no benefit to going early in a round besides maintaining the status quo from previous rounds.

FWIW it looks like Breath of Ice might also just be enough to kill, though it's only marginally faster since Sas isn't as good at water as he is at earth.

[superaielman]

Olberic (Octopath Traveler) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)- Nope. Zeromus is much faster and isn't OHKOed by a limit at worst; his durability is quite good.
Olberic vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)- RIP.
Olberic vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)- Freeze. MP damage could do it too yeah.
Olberic vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)- Explode.
Olberic vs. Artea (Lufia 2)- Yep, that sneaky fast turn three doing work.
Olberic vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)- ID.
Olberic vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)- Smash.
Olberic vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)- Seal makes Olberic real unhappy.
Olberic vs. Suicune (Pokemon)- Tanks through, smashes.
Olberic vs. Rofel (Final Fantasy Tactics)- Weapon break is really bad here, so is silence. Just an ugly fight.
Olberic vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)- Cloud isn't seeing any kind of limit here.
Olberic vs. Elly (Xenogears)- Sleep.

Therion (Octopath Traveler) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)- Whole lot of nope going on here.
Therion vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)-See above.
Therion vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)- Freeze, sure.
Therion vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)-Two shots of  Explode are enough.
Therion vs. Artea (Lufia 2)- Depends entirely on speed respect, both are winning on turn three here.
Therion vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)- ID.
Therion vs.Sasarai (Suikoden 3)- OHKO.
Therion vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)-Silence.
Therion vs.Suicune (Pokemon)- That defense is going to make the draining bad and Hydropump doesn't care about Shackle foe. Feels like Suicune's fight.
Therion vs. Rofel (Final Fantasy Tactics) Therion really, really really hates silence. And weapon breaking. And well, the entire cast is just not going to do well against FFT Divine Knights.
Therion vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)- Shackle foe/drain works well enough here.
Therion vs. Elly (Xenogears)= Sleep.

Alfyn (Octopath Traveler) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)- Way too much speed. Alfyn's got the best argument of any of the OT cast but man he is getting lapped constantly.
Alfyn vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)- Alfyn isn't OHKOed by the damage, can block the status with his skills!.... and he runs straight into a limit. He has so many issues attempting to damage Lulu.
Alfyn vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)- Bust Alfyn's MP and then status him with Freeze. Poison blocker helps here too.
Alfyn vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)- Kneejerk is that I'd see Alfyn's innate status resistance getting Explode. I think Alfyn wins in that case; he can probably run Chaz out of resources.
Alfyn vs. Artea (Lufia 2)- Much faster; Alfyn can't really avoid a limit either offhand.
Alfyn vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)- Resounding Roar until Rehabilitate wears off, then Devouring Jaws.
Alfyn vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)- Tanks through. Alfyn's bad speed works in his favor here, as Sas can't fire off a slow spell and then a faster one on the next turn to healer bust.
Alfyn vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)- Seals.
Alfyn vs. Suicune (Pokemon)- Runs Suicune out of resources.
Alfyn vs. Rofel (Final Fantasy Tactics)- See previous comments about Divine Knights vs OT.
Alfyn vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)- Cloud's only seeing an L1 here and that's not enough.
Alfyn vs. Elly (Xenogears)-Kneejerk Elly speed dispresect.


Tressa gets swept. Cloud just beats her with magic; Rest can't keep up with Bolt/Ice 3 and her damage is bad.


Alfyn: 5-7.  Did better than expected including in his losses; he definitely belongs in Low Heavy.
Olberic- 3-9. He spoils some pure heavy level sluggers but this field is just so much better than him on the whole.
Therion: 1-10. After this I'm leaning towards him in High Middle. He's hideously vunerable to 2HKOs and status; the drain's not enough in Heavy to mitigate the issues.
Tressa: 0-12. I mean yeah, she's strictly a spoiler in Middle.

[Pyro]

Luminary (DQ11) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)
Luminary vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10): No lightning and physicals are spoiled?
Luminary vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3): MP Kill.
Luminary vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4): No ID. He heals forever.

Luminary vs. Artea (Lufia 2)
Luminary vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5): No ID.
Luminary vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3): elemental mockery.
Luminary vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2): Gets status resists.

Luminary vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics): Rofl didn't resist lightning.
Luminary vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7): Does 50% starting limit let him get a fatal L3 limit? I doubt it offhand given how much control Luminary has here.
Luminary vs. Elly (Xenogears)

Ness (Earthbound) vs. Zeromus (Final Fantasy 4)
Ness vs. Lulu (Final Fantasy 10)
Ness vs. Nel (Star Ocean 3)
Ness vs. Chaz (Phantasy Star 4)

Ness vs. Artea (Lufia 2)
Ness vs. Ernst (Suikoden 5)
Ness vs. Sasarai (Suikoden 3)
Ness vs. Saki (Shadow Hearts 2)

Ness vs. Rofl (Final Fantasy Tactics)
Ness vs. Cloud (Final Fantasy 7)
Ness vs. Elly (Xenogears): zzz

[superaielman]

Largely agree with Elfboy's votes on RL. The few where I don't:


RL vs Zeromus is an abstain; Zeromus high rolling Big Bang at the right time is a problem. Zeromus is crazy fast (69 AGI or so) and is going to be getting a lot of turns. I don't see Weaken doing anything here, but that may not matter.

Rabbid Luigi vs. Artea (Lufia 2)- OHKO from weapon IP on a turn when Super Barrier's down; RL can do nothing about this.



Rabbid Luigi vs. Rofel (Final Fantasy Tactics): I don't see Defense up or protect doing anything about dash damage. That plus weaken makes his offense a joke. It's possible he could get a lucky win with status but I am really not inclined to respect that much here.