Team SMASH: Geno / Alexia / Zerase vs Team Fellowship of the Ring: Athos / Rufus (VP2) / Geddoe
Team Surprisingly Deadly Thieves: Eric (DQ11), Therion (8PT), Morgana (P5) vs Team FE Heroes: Ike, Lyn, Ephraim
Interp question: how does Critical Claim interact with Ragnell's crit immunity? No good way to say - Ragnell's crit immunity is pretty comprehensive in-game (no enemies with Wrath), but Eric's Critical Claim could be argued to be more like a defense-ignoring skill. If it does work, then Ike needs Aether on turn 1, since Divide -> 3x Crit Claims should do the trick. There's also "do you let skills double" and "if so, how does this interact with Divide". Even if Ike immunes crits, if you see skills as doubling, then Eric will get 4x (!) Fatal Slashes off on turn 2, although admittedly allowing a counter in-between the third & fourth hit, which is a pretty high chance of instant death (40% each Fatal Slash). On the other hand, Ike getting an Aether will both heal him and probably kill Eric. Definitely some dice rolls afoot here.
Scenario: Eric kills Ike via ID or damage. I think Thieves are hugely favored, then. If Eric is on death's door, he can still get one Fatal Slash off on Lyn, and if Lyn can't OHKO him, she's in deep shit as that means Eric can Divide than get another KO. So a high chance of Lyn just being dead, and if she even lives, she'll have taken at least one Fatal Slash to the face. I think the others can easily carry after that.
Scenario: Ike Aethers Eric or just 3HKOs him after surviving 4 Fatal Slashes. If Ike did things the hard way via 3HKO, he's horribly wounded and Therion just finishes him off no problem, then should finish off Lyn no problem. If Ike Aether'd, then Therion grabs Legion Dagger for an evade setup and uses Shackle Weapon. Therion will have to survive two rounds of debuffed Ike offense, but that should be doable, especially with the debuff. Therion then blows Ike up on turn 3 after turn 2 Armor Corrosive, but loses all his BP and took some Ike hits. Given the initiative reset, it's not over, though. Therion can debuff Lyn before she goes, and hope to at least pull off a boosted HP Thief to wound her on his way down. So we are either in a scenario where Morgana is facing a wounded Lyn (best for FE heroes) or a no-BP Therion is facing Ephraim. And... I think that Morgana has some play here vs. Ephraim? Eph needs to go for Killer Lance one-shots I think. Morgana's plan is to debuff Eph's accuracy, heal on hits, and use wind magic or recasting Masukunda on dodges. Although I guess FE8 is a very accurate game and if you see Eph as hitting through Masakunda a lot, he can just hope to hit enough times in a row that Morgana runs out of MP from constant early healing or is forced to gamble on casting Masakunda while injured. Hmm. Morgana's game is definitely much, much easier if Therion survives to hurt Eph a little at the start and/or debuff him. (Side note: I definitely don't respect gun status any more in P5 for those wondering why I don't mention that.)
Close stuff. I am inclined to kneejerk for the Thieves just because the scenario of Fatal Slash ID + Ike not getting turn 1 Aether seems likely, and that should be a solid win for the Thieves, but it gets interesting if that doesn't happen!
Team Speed Manip: Fie (Cold Steel) / Arnaud / Tidus vs Team Fliers: Nina (Breath of Fire 4), Sumia (FE Awakening), Rose (Legend of Dragoon)
I'm gonna kneejerk the other way. Agree with Random that Nina is pretty key to Team Fliers here, but I'm kind of inclined to be a tad harsh on Fie here since she was nom'd as a High Heavy and I want to say she probably makes Godlike with enough Delay hype? Even if Nina doesn't immune Delay outright, I'd be willing to spot her the kind of Delay resistance seen on powerful bosses, which makes Fie's game a lot less reliable. (Also, Sumia will surely want her Dark Flier form here if allowed for all that she's probably dead weight anyway, but Rose should be able to handle Tidus if it comes down to those two somehow.)
Team Sexy Beasts: Rei (BoF3), Nikki (MK), Kevin (SD3) vs Team ...: Crono (CT), Luminary (DQ11), Freyjadour (Suiko V)
Lightweight division -
Team Servants: Gremio (S1), Brey/Borya (DQ4), Jakob (FE Fates) vs Team C-tier ninjas: Akahgi (Suiko 4), Frank (SH3), Sheena (ToS)
I can be convinced otherwise, but I am inclined to kneejerk Ninjas here. Just the servants aren't great. Gremio is an okay Light slugger, maybe, but Brey dies too fast and Jakob's mage-spoiling doesn't really help here.
Team Mostly Harmless Dancers: Primrose (8PT), Dancer (FFT), Azura (FE Fates) vs Team Palmer: Olivier (WA3) / Linny (FM3) / Palmer
Yikes. Palmer hype? I guess he can tank his way through this after all, didn't think the Dancer damage was THAT pathetic.
Team Kitteh: Purugly (Pkmn) / Daena (LoM) / Mao vs Team Isekai: Aurora (Child of Light), Frederick (Eternal Sonata), Rabbid Peach (Mario+Rabbids)
This is admittedly a STRONG kneejerk since there's some real obscura in here, but... it seems like Kitteh's best shot are Swagger strats and hope Confusion kicks in a lot. Kinda outdamaged otherwise. But this is very provisional.
Team Cats & Frogs Living Together: Cray (Breath of Fire 4), Lethe (FE9), Frog (CT) vs Team Superaielman: Kain / Noel / Nergal
Analysis for later, but I don't think Frog can handle Nergal, exactly the kind of opponent Frog doesn't want to face. So Lethe really needs to make it to the Nergal fight. Good thing Noel is pretty much dead weight. So probably Cats & Frogs?
EDIT: Eh, I think Random has it.
