Dang, I missed noms.
Godlike:
Rayquaza (PKMN) vs. Magus (CT) - Dragon Dance + anything physical after is probably too much here. Magus can hit weakness with Lightning 2 but eeeeeh
Killer (SH3) vs. Arceus (PKMN) - Killer 3 wins I suspect due to Seal/ID and can double into Malice Dirge - which is NE so I wouldn't see Ghost catching it. Killer 2...probably loses because he doesn't have those tools. Since I vote Killer 2 over 3...
Heavy:
Maya Schrodinger (WA3) vs. Alicia (VP2) - Calamity Jane needs to do 80%+ damage to even make any headway on Alicia and I kind of doubt that happens.
Levin Brenton (WAXF) vs. Alexia Lynn Elesius (WAXF) - Gross mismatch part 1
Haishao (XG) vs. Lilka (WA2) - Gross mismatch part 2
Kanji (P4) vs. Auron (FFX) - Opens with Power Break, then wins the ensuing slugest. P4G Kanji has Phys Resistance + 12% regen which helps a lot, but I don't vote that form. EDIT - As further discussed in chat today - even if you do, Zombiestrike creates problems for Kanji. Losing 10-12% HP at the start of every turn adds up quickly, to the point he doesn't have enough time to recast Mataru on himself...though depending on the averages used, he can come pretty close.
Middle:
Anastasia Romanov(SH2) vs. Byleth (FE3H) - Ana has an argument to win this with status (Euthanasia apparently), but I just don't see it. Not only is the skill one which you will pretty much never see in-game (like most of Ana's skills), but then it also has to hit right status and you need to disregard or otherwise see it bypassing Byleth's good Charm stat + any Magic Evade credit. In a game where most of randoms basically explode to a twinked Yuri or boosted Blanca T3, I find it very hard to give it much credit. Byleth has her own set of calls needed, but the 2HKO is easier to buy IMO.
Aht (RH) vs. Blanca (SH2) - I'm not very inclined to give Aht any credit in a match where her opponent CAN theoretically move.
Fafnir (WA3) vs. Elena (G2) - 10% MHP damage and 4HKO damage is NOT how you beat Elena
Light:
Edward (FF4) vs. Fina (SoA) - JFC...
Selphie (FF8) vs. Berserker (FF5) - For my reference: Selphie does 465 to an alleged 1633 average. However, BER SER KER has a1.62 Pdur, resulting in a 6HKO. BER SER KER on his part does 2210 damage to a 2670 average. Selphie is roughly 0.927 average HP, which is all that really matters because Vit in FF8 doesn't really show unless you get it to super high numbers. On paper, this looks like it's Selphie's to lose. Berserker will knock her to Limit Range, she then casts Full Cure - repeat until Berserker dies.
HOWEVER, there are two factors here that create some room for debate. The first is that unlike other FF8 Limits, Slot requires Selphie to dig for Full Cure. Even though it is a preferred Magic, there is a chance Selphie just low rolls and never gets it. Yes, I am aware Selphie can also roll other match winning magic (such as Death) but they're all random and not preferred, so the chances of rolling those aren't high enough for me to consider. Second, Berserker does roughly 35% to Selphie per swing. This means after two swings, Selphie is at 30% - enough to reach limit status BUT it is a low crisis limit. What this means is that if she is limit fishing, it will take longer for her to get one PLUS the fact that she then has to look for the right spell to cast. The longer this match goes on for, the greater the chance there is for Selphie to low roll and either never see a limit or die before getting the necessary magic. It also gives Berserker more time to hit his desired series of ranges to completely dodge a limit due to his damage fluctuation.
Also for consideration - Berserker is roughly 85% average speed (but has the benefit of not requiring manual input, so maybe slightly faster). Selphie is basically average speed. So Selphie 5-6s Berserker. The double turn is likely decisive because it comes at a point where even if you see Selphie low rolling her 2nd limit, she essentially has way more time there to fish for what she needs + Berserker being at a lower HP gives her more choice for winning spell combos. In practice however, Berserker won't hit the perfect 35% damage each time on Selphie and as noted above, there are certain ranges where it benefits him more. He wins if he can consistently land the low 3HKO or the high 2HKO, but there are other combos of swings that work and some swings that can put Selphie in deep caution. I assume these offset, but YMMV.
I haven't mentioned the DOOM AXE yet, and that is something else that throws a wrench into things. The BMG states the ID chance is 33%, so if that is correct, then Berserker likely wins this since Selphie needs 6 shots and Berseker will trade 1 for 1 until Turn 5, meaning he gets a few more shots for the proc. OTOH, NEB notes in the stat topic that the ID is on average Turn 5. Might be factoring in weapon accuracy (and axes being inaccurate), in which case, Selphie still wins because she goes first. Going to go with what I suspect is the one with a bit more consistent game plan, but yeah, this can go either way.
Peppor (CC) vs. Heather (FE10) - Gross mismatch part 3
Poshul (CC) vs. Lelei (S5) - Very strong kneejerk. Poshul isn't great but Lelei is hot garbo
