Season 52, Week 1: Myria does that traditional Godlike welcome thing.

[Pyro]

Godlike:
Myria (BoFs) vs Marino (MMXCM)
Brahms (VPs) vs Purim (SoM)
X (MMXCM) vs Luca Blight (S2)
Ash Lambert (VH) vs Melfice (G2)

Heavy:
Deamoned (BoF5) vs Rufus (VP2)
Lezard Valeth (VPs) vs Ryu (BoF1)
Laharl (Disgaea) vs Nicole Mimi Tithel (MK)
Clive Winslett (WA3) vs Fogel (OB)

Middle:
Vahn (LoL1) vs Kresnik Ahtreide (WA4)
Rico Banderas (XG) vs Cangazzo (FF4)
Palom (FF4) vs Gordon (Disgaea)
Borus Redrum (S3) vs Odessa Silverburg (S1)

Light:
Anri (SF1) vs Quistis (FF8)
Tia (Lufia 2) vs Chaco (S2)
Milon (FF4) vs Gobi (BoF1)
Liz (WA2) vs Gijimu (S2)

[Pyro]

Godlike:
Myria (BoFs) vs Marino (MMXCM): Might be able to vote on this shortly.
Brahms (VPs) vs Purim (SoM): VP1 Brahms... Purim Lucid Barriers, than feeds him two weakness hitting Lucent Beams. VP2 Brahms gets Lucid Barrier'd/Defender'd.
X (MMXCM) vs Luca Blight (S2): Can't vote right this second, but go X?
Ash Lambert (VH) vs Melfice (G2): Hmm. Probably Ash if I allow Vandalier. Hmm.

Heavy:
Deamoned (BoF5) vs Rufus (VP2): NOt sure. Rufus might OHKO after Might Reinforce. Then again Deamoned might OHKO but I dunno.
Lezard Valeth (VPs) vs Ryu (BoF1): I guess Lezard isn't OHKO'd so Spiritual Thorns works. Bleh.
Laharl (Disgaea) vs Nicole Mimi Tithel (MK): NIKKI SMASH PUNY OVERLORD. Seriously, outspeeds, outanks, outdamages, outclasses. What else is there to say?
Clive Winslett (WA3) vs Fogel (OB): Ouch.

Middle:
Vahn (LoL1) vs Kresnik Ahtreide (WA4): NOA IS HOTTER. [/OK]
Rico Banderas (XG) vs Cangazzo (FF4): Not thinking here.
Palom (FF4) vs Gordon (Disgaea): Or here.
Borus Redrum (S3) vs Odessa Silverburg (S1): Odessa is pretty good for when she's around, right?

Light:
Anri (SF1) vs Quistis (FF8): I think she OHKOs.
Tia (Lufia 2) vs Chaco (S2): Chaco doesn't 2HKO Tia. You SUCK, Chaco.
Milon (FF4) vs Gobi (BoF1): $(&*%(%*&#(&$*$#&(*$(#&*$(&(*&(*&#(*&$(&&&&&)%&@#(*^)#(%&)%(*#$)*%&)(#@*&%)(@#&%)(#%*&^)(*&#%)(*%&#)(#%*&)(%#*@&)(#*&)(%*#&)#(*&#)(
Liz (WA2) vs Gijimu (S2): GIJIMU SMASH.

[superaielman]

Godlike:
Myria (BoFs) vs Marino (MMXCM)
Brahms (VPs) vs Purim (SoM)- More likely to make Myria go away. Fight's a complete coinflip otherwise.
X (MMXCM) vs Luca Blight (S2)- Strong kneejerk this way.
Ash Lambert (VH) vs Melfice (G2)- Move block. Don't think Ash can do anything about it, Melfice has too much evade/speed to deal with. Playing defensively doesn't work thanks to constant 3-2's.

Heavy:
Deamoned (BoF5) vs Rufus (VP2)
Lezard Valeth (VPs) vs Ryu (BoF1)- ID.
Laharl (Disgaea) vs Nicole Mimi Tithel (MK)- Played enough MK to vote on this.
Clive Winslett (WA3) vs Fogel (OB)- Ouch. Clive likely avoids a pool, but.. ouch.

Middle:
Vahn (LoL1) vs Kresnik Ahtreide (WA4)-- Slaughter.
Rico Banderas (XG) vs Cangazzo (FF4)- Rico doesn't have the right elemental DBs to give this fight a go.
Palom (FF4) vs Gordon (Disgaea)- Horrible statusy death.
Borus Redrum (S3) vs Odessa Silverburg (S1)- Not Borus's type of fight.

Light:
Anri (SF1) vs Quistis (FF8)- Can avoid an FF8 limit.  Probably doesn't die to the physical damage. I think? Will check SF1r Anri's durability.
Tia (Lufia 2) vs Chaco (S2)- Chaco does suck.
Milon (FF4) vs Gobi (BoF1)- On top of all of his other problems, Gobi was fairly slow.
Liz (WA2) vs Gijimu (S2)- This half of light is boned.

[Monkeyfinger]

Godlike:
Myria (BoFs) vs Marino (MMXCM)
Brahms (VPs) vs Purim (SoM)
X (MMXCM) vs Luca Blight (S2): Ran it through Pyro's RPGmon.exe and came out with Luca surviving with 19% HP left. This is assuming X's physicals ignore defense but his nova strike doesn't (what the stat topic implies). X heart almost, ALMOST bought X a turn to do a 62 WE Nova strike, which would have finished Luca off, but no dice.

Heavy:
Deamoned (BoF5) vs Rufus (VP2)
Lezard Valeth (VPs) vs Ryu (BoF1)
Laharl (Disgaea) vs Nicole Mimi Tithel (MK)
Clive Winslett (WA3) vs Fogel (OB)

Middle:
Rico Banderas (XG) vs Cangazzo (FF4)
Palom (FF4) vs Gordon (Disgaea)
Borus Redrum (S3) vs Odessa Silverburg (S1)

Light:
Anri (SF1) vs Quistis (FF8)
Tia (Lufia 2) vs Chaco (S2)
Milon (FF4) vs Gobi (BoF1): Rather than think out how it goes between the two forms I can vote on I'll just say that Milon wins because he became a heavy in FF4DS.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Myria (BoFs) vs Marino (MMXCM) - :psyduck:
Brahms (VPs) vs Purim (SoM) - EDIT: Sure, if I'm going by VP1.
X (MMXCM) vs Luca Blight (S2) - X is a bit faster to me, so he gets the durability boost off the bat. Considering I'd see Luca at PC HP -at best- before reduction, I think X has the offensive edge in the slugfest.
Ash Lambert (VH) vs Melfice (G2) - Shhhh!. Failure, Ash.

Lezard Valeth (VPs) vs Ryu (BoF1) - Spiritual Thorn. Fail, Ryu.
Clive Winslett (WA3) vs Fogel (OB) - This is verrrrrrrrrry ugly.

Vahn (LoL1) vs Kresnik Ahtreide (WA4) - Vahn is really, really lacking against a Middle/Heavy-level healer.
Rico Banderas (XG) vs Cagnazzo (FF4) - *Facepalm.* EDIT: The initial facepalming kneejerk remains correct. However, Dhyer is right: Cagnazzo is pretty damned awful. His Big Wave has a charge time (...), and, while I'm not double-crediting weaknesses here, he's still sub-PC HP, which means Rico 3HKOs. Cagnazzo could even try to play STALLER with the shell retracting healing (for whatever good that could do, given he can't attack while in that state and that healing gets owned by one shot of average damage in-game), but how is that working when he's getting solidly 3HKOed pre-buffing and he has an effective 4HKO at full HP with his best, the alternative being a mighty 6HKO on average physical? Yeah, this is just pathetic. EDIT: Unless Big Wave can be used without raising the water barrier first. In which case, I just hate this match.
Borus Redrum (S3) vs Odessa Silverburg (S1) - Odessa has way too much of a raw stat edge in general, and even the SoM speed is comparable. So, she 3HKOs, probably dodges enough to skip 2HKOs and gets the best out of Borus.

Anri (SF1) vs Quistis (FF8) - FF8 vs. 2HKO damage.
Tia (Lufia 2) vs Chaco (S2) - Chaco being Chaco.
Milon (FF4) vs Gobi (BoF1) - Unless Meeple's GOBI WEAPON HYPE actually works here, in which case this match is the worst thing ever.
Liz (WA2) vs Gijimu (S2) - Liz being Liz.

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike:
Myria (BoFs) vs Marino (MMXCM)
Brahms (VPs) vs Purim (SoM)- Either he barely OHKOs Lucid Barrier normally, and eventually kills it and then smashes Purim, or he barely misses OHKOing Lucid Barrier, and then just OHKOs both it and Purim the next turn. And this is assuming that Purim goes first.
X (MMXCM) vs Luca Blight (S2)- X probably. Low Luca HP respect.
Ash Lambert (VH) vs Melfice (G2)- Melfice likely.

Heavy:
Deamoned (BoF5) vs Rufus (VP2)- Deamoned
Lezard Valeth (VPs) vs Ryu (BoF1)- Lezard. VP 2 PC form works at least, leaving me free of headaches
Laharl (Disgaea) vs Nicole Mimi Tithel (MK)- Nikki
Clive Winslett (WA3) vs Fogel (OB)- Fogel

Middle:
Vahn (LoL1) vs Kresnik Ahtreide (WA4)- Kresnik
Rico Banderas (XG) vs Cangazzo (FF4)- Rico...Yeah, Cagnazzo 4 turns Rico at best? Cagnazzo is also seriously, seriously undurable.
Palom (FF4) vs Gordon (Disgaea)- Palom
Borus Redrum (S3) vs Odessa Silverburg (S1)- Unsure. Scaling issues. Probably still Odessa though.

Light:
Anri (SF1) vs Quistis (FF8)- Anri
Tia (Lufia 2) vs Chaco (S2)- Tia
Milon (FF4) vs Gobi (BoF1)- No
Liz (WA2) vs Gijimu (S2)- Gijimu

[Bardiche]

What is this RPGmon.exe?


Godlike:
Myria (BoFs) vs Marino (MMXCM)
Brahms (VPs) vs Purim (SoM)
X (MMXCM) vs Luca Blight (S2)

Heavy:
Deamoned (BoF5) vs Rufus (VP2)
Lezard Valeth (VPs) vs Ryu (BoF1)
Laharl (Disgaea) vs Nicole Mimi Tithel (MK)

Middle:
Palom (FF4) vs Gordon (Disgaea)

Light:
Anri (SF1) vs Quistis (FF8)
Tia (Lufia 2) vs Chaco (S2) - I actually mathed this out. Chaco does something shy of a 4HKO, so let's go with 3HKO against Tia. Tia does a 3HKO and outspeeds. And she can Heal on top of all that. Only way Chaco can win is scoring a crit on his second hit, which I... don't see happening.

[Dhyerwolf]

Oh, right, here's some math on Purim vs Brahms.

Lucid Barrier takes 600 damage. Average SoM HP is 528, so Lucid Barrier takes 113.6% PC HP damage.

Brahms's physical does 116.7% PC HP Damage, so Lucid Barrier doesn't help there. He'll just keep breaking it every turn, until a few turns in when he gets a PWS (Which at 25% chance is going off at turn 3 on average). Purim can't juggle defensive buffs and still manage to get off the two shots of magic she needs in time to off Brahms. VP 2 Brahms is of course another story, but for those who go by VP 1, seems like Purim doesn't really have a feasible way to win this.

On Cagnazzo's durability issues...looking at the topic, he's 73% PC HP level and that's not including the weaknesses. Rico can 2HKO him without Yamikei in the average.Tellah rips off massive chunks of his HP unless I'm missing something in the topic. And his only real source of damage is based on his CHP...and has a charge time. Cagnazzo is really bad, and it seems like Rico (and most Lights) crush him badly. Is there something I'm forgetting here?

[Dark Holy Elf]

Yang's physical is hitting a weakness there, which the stat topic doesn't indicate (check damage vs. Baigan for evidence there) so the average is 528 and Cag is... well, still about 80% PCHP to you I guess? Tops PCHP to me easily enough. Anyway, Cag has (non-Milon/Rubicant) FF4 boss speed and instantly doubles the three mages IIRC, so he kinda shreds Rico that way? Actually ends up closer than I expected, granted.


Godlike:
Myria (BoFs) vs Marino (MMXCM): Lame.
Brahms (VPs) vs Purim (SoM): VP2 form, so Brahms gets lit on fire.
X (MMXCM) vs Luca Blight (S2): I'm not really sure. Need to figure out exactly where I see CM damage and Luca HP.
Ash Lambert (VH) vs Melfice (G2): Definitely don't see Melfice evade as 100%, so need to think about this. Are there any conditions to Melfice using Shhh? I definitely didn't see it in either fight.

Heavy:
Deamoned (BoF5) vs Rufus (VP2): Ouch.
Lezard Valeth (VPs) vs Ryu (BoF1): This just fails.
Laharl (Disgaea) vs Nicole Mimi Tithel (MK): 1, 2, 3, and you're mine. Bad mismatch.
Clive Winslett (WA3) vs Fogel (OB): I almost bolded Fogel here...

Middle:
Rico Banderas (XG) vs Cangazzo (FF4): Leaning Cagnazzo.
Palom (FF4) vs Gordon (Disgaea): OHKOs.
Borus Redrum (S3) vs Odessa Silverburg (S1): Borus doesn't have the skill of the other Knights, so Odessa gives him all sorts of fits.

Light:
Anri (SF1) vs Quistis (FF8): Can chip and smash.
Tia (Lufia 2) vs Chaco (S2): Chaco isn't super-fast, right.
Milon (FF4) vs Gobi (BoF1): I need to refight Milon again, wouldn't be surprised if I was underselling his speed, since the stat topic seems to do that in general and Milon sucked too much for me to remember. Still, fast 4HKO from over PCHP and boss immunities means I've been underselling Milon a bit. Go own Gobi and... not get too much further probably, but it's the thought that counts!
Liz (WA2) vs Gijimu (S2): In that Milon being not as bad as I thought isn't saving him next round.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Dug this Youtube vid up as an illustration. Blah blah it's not perfect, blah blah FF4 speed is screwed up anyway, blah blah, but I wanted to verify my own memories. They check out. Here's the turn order seen in the battle, admittedly not too long due to lol lightning/ice weakness:

Cagnazzo
Cecil, Yang, Porom
Cagnazzo
Entire Party
Cagnazzo
Yang, Tellah
Cagnazzo
Cecil, Yang
Cagnazzo
Tellah

From the looks of things Palom isn't equipped for Wisdom since his spells are taking a time to go off. Still the general trends are pretty telling: instant double on two PCs, 4-3 on the clearly above average Cecil, and total domination of the mages for turns in general. Pretty safe to say that Rico is closer to Palom than he is to Cecil, so I'll be sticking by "doubles Rico" hype this week.

Also if you check the HP scores in that battle and note that Tellah starts injured for some reason, you will understand why I see Palom being OHKOed this week! (Yes, FF4a voters exist, I know.)

[superaielman]

Twins are still over half average HP at that point with the party, and that's with two of the most durable PC's in the game.  I don't know how precisely you're scaling them, but they don't end up that horrible on HP to where Gordon's not even 2HKOing damage should kill.

I wouldn't take 4a speed seriously for bosses the way the game mechanics work. The video I dug up on the SNES version had him being beat out by Cecil and Yang. Milon I do remember as being fast, though that may be counters coming into play.

[Dark Holy Elf]

SNES version had slower enemies, yeah (part of the game generally being a joke for difficulty). PSX version looked very similar to what was going on in Advance.

Twins are still over half average HP at that point with the party, and that's with two of the most durable PC's in the game.

As well as three of the frailest. It's a really low average - the twins have notably worse HP than Tellah who himself is pretty horrid on HP. You get a chance to compare Tellah directly to Rosa later, who is pretty much average HP, and he looks horrible compared to her... and the twins are even worse. That doesn't say good things about their HP.

[superaielman]

Tellah's HP isn't that horrible at that point. His level advantage and starting HP really help prop up his durability. It just starts tanking late in his arc, thanks to enemies having good physicals and his HP not growing. Especially in a party with the three best tanks in the game.

I'll go dig up Rosa and Rydia's HP at that level real fast.

Edit: Level 18 (Which it looks like the level the twins are at), Rydia has 275 HP and Rosa has 400 HP.  They're about on Rydia's tier for HP for most of the game once they get past the horrible start.

The HP average of those five doesn't look too warped. Porom's frailer than Rosa, but Yang's got notably more HP than Kain/Edge. Tellah's about average at that point.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Averages:
HP:
1. Cecil 890
3. Tellah 418
4. Palom 318
5. Porom 297
Average: 547

HP:
2. Cecil 1179
5. Rosa 748
6. Tellah 494
Average: 977

Tellah's HP compared to Cecil's doesn't change significantly - 47% to 42%. The worst of Tellah's HP tanking occurs at levels beyond his leaving. The twins have ~34% of Cecil's HP... notably worse than Tellah when he leaves. The only reason Tellah looks worse to some is that they give the twins credit for the fact that their HP is so bad that they lower the average well below where it should be, while Tellah himself is in one of the highest possible averages - one that trades the twins for Cid, Kain, and Rosa, which is one small Rosa-Edge swap away from the tankiest five PCs in the game.

[superaielman]

Cecil's HP grows slowly in the first 20ish levels, just spikes after that. It makes up for his large head start at L1 (600 HP). otherwise see the edit you just ninjaed.

[Dark Holy Elf]

When you say his HP grows slowly, who are you comparing him to? Seems to me that everyone else you have at the time is growing at a similar rate to him or slower, except Yang who just has crazy fast HP growth in general. Holding Cecil constant seems to make the most sense to me, since he's the closest to average HP growth of the folks who are relevant to this discussion. I assume you are thinking of HP growths like Rosa but what Rosa's HP is doing in the long expanse of space between her two party stints doesn't really concern me. Same with Kain.

[superaielman]

Some PC's in FF4 have steady growth. The twins, both girl mages, Edge.  Cecil doesn't.  He has a huge pool of HP at level 1, so his starting growth sucks to balance it out. He gains less HP in 15 levels than Rydia does He gains  HP like a mage until that point.

The twins aren't Naratastic if you scale them to the team they're in or against endgame stats/team.  Tellah's HP is the same as the PC's who are constantly average at every level (Edge, Rosa) at that particular point; Cecil and Yang also pick up some slack relatively to the fighters you have later.

Edit: I know Tellah's below average numerically against the Baigan/Cag average, but it's also the precise same amount Rosa is against the average when he leaves. He also has the same HP Rosa would have at that point. Calling him average durability or close to it doesn't feel unreasonable at that point in the game.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Oh, I think I see where the confusion is coming in, here.

Yes, Cecil may gain less HP per level at low levels... but this is compensates for by the fact that he is gaining way more levels, due to starting at Level 1 after Mt. Ordeals. Thus, when you consider his rate of HP game per time, it actually ends up very steady. It's sorta like how Rika in PS4 has low Strength growth (equal to Raja's), but because she gains more levels than anyone else, she ends up gaining an average amount of Str over the course of game.

So yeah. I see nothing wrong with calling Cecil's HP growth steady. Again, the operative time we are concerned with for this discussion is what happens after the twins leave... and during that time he gains HP faster than Tellah and slower than Yang, which suggests he's average at growth during this time.

Calling him average durability or close to it doesn't feel unreasonable at that point in the game.

I'm inclined to disagree with that, but sure, we'll go along with that statement and see what goes wrong.

What is unreasonable, though, is to suggest that Tellah somehow goes from average HP to Mara level in two dungeons. This only happens if you assume that Cecil's HP AND Yang's HP is also tanking badly during this time. This makes no sense at all - particularly Yang, his HP growth is crazy, yet if you read the HP "averages" his HP should drop from 158% to 135%.

The only logical alternative is that the HP scores of the PCs are not uniformly tanking, and we're just seeing the effect of pulling the twins out of an average and replacing them with two fighters. This leaves you with the unshakable conclusion that the twins have just over a third of Cecil's HP, when Cecil, we know, ends up around 120-125% average once the party finds its balance... aka they're below 50% PCHP.

[superaielman]

I'm inclined to disagree with that, but sure, we'll go along with that statement and see what goes wrong.

What is unreasonable, though, is to suggest that Tellah somehow goes from average HP to Mara level in two dungeons. This only happens if you assume that Cecil's HP AND Yang's HP is also tanking badly during this time. This makes no sense at all - particularly Yang, his HP growth is crazy, yet if you read the HP "averages" his HP should drop from 158% to 135%.

The only logical alternative is that the HP scores of the PCs are not uniformly tanking, and we're just seeing the effect of pulling the twins out of an average and replacing them with two fighters. This leaves you with the unshakable conclusion that the twins have just over a third of Cecil's HP, when Cecil, we know, ends up around 120-125% average once the party finds its balance... aka they're below 50% PCHP.

Tellah gains three levels. Cecil gains ten (Granted, doesn't matter as much), Yang/Cid gain 5-7 levels each. It's a pretty tough average. We know Rosa's average at endgame and for most of the game period, but she's notably below at that point thanks to the tankiness of the party. He's definitely frailer by the time he leaves by a good deal.


Cecil has more HP than Yang and Cid at the point the twins leave. It's his best point in the game for durablity, he's going to be notably better than the Rydia HP tier twins at that point. Adding Cid to the average when the twins leave changes things a little (Porom's right at 50%, Palom's a bit above), but not a notable amount.

[SnowFire]

Matches of note to me:

Brahms (VPs) vs Purim (SoM) - Purim definitely beats VP2 Brahms.  I think the only way he wins is to go first and then get lucky enough to stun Purim on his opening chain.  Otherwise Lucid Barrier is death.  VP1...  well, I'd say Purim conclusively goes first since Brahms normally goes last.  But even if the Barrier survives a Brahms chain, and two Brahms hits (the first breaking Lucid Barrier) doesn't 2HKO Purim through Defender....  the turn order is something like: Barrier, Attack, Defender, Attack, Barrier, Attack, Cure Water, Attack, Barrier, Attack, Lucent Beam, Attack, Lucent Beam.  That's giving him 6 shots of unleashing Bloody Curse.  It gets even worse if Purim doesn't 2HKO with Lucid Barrier, which I'd find pretty easy to see - taking a party of something like Lenneth and 3 Mages to get through Brahms' Castle is generally infeasible, so I'm not sure I'd hold multiple magic users against Brahms' HP that much.

That said, I think I'd see Purim getting lucky and Brahms never activating Bloody Curse against VP1 as more likely than Brahms getting lucky, going first, and stunning Purim out in his VP2 form.  As I'm not sure I give Brahms full credit for form-choice due to VP1's legality issues, leaning toward Purim here.

Deamoned (BoF5) vs Rufus (VP2) - Goooo Rufus.  Amusingly enough, Might Reinforce doesn't cost him as much damage as you might think, at least if you go by the rules for DL-legality that the stat topic does...  it only costs 18 AP, and apparently the weapon that the stat topic gave archers doesn't have a Soul Crush anyway.  So he doesn't miss out on Blinding Blaze damage by using it.  (Though I'm not certain I'd agree with disallowing some of the unique weapons...  but that's just me.)  Anyway, BoF5 bosses seem to vary wildly based on how much D-Counter is held against them, but holding even a little against Deamoned should let Rufus win, I think.

Rico Banderas (XG) vs Cangazzo (FF4) - A match worthy of Light?  I don't respect Rico at all, but I think he can take this one.  The whole "needs to charge up" thing is pretty horrible.

[Dhyerwolf]

Matches of note to me:

Brahms (VPs) vs Purim (SoM) - Purim definitely beats VP2 Brahms.  I think the only way he wins is to go first and then get lucky enough to stun Purim on his opening chain.  Otherwise Lucid Barrier is death.  VP1...  well, I'd say Purim conclusively goes first since Brahms normally goes last.  But even if the Barrier survives a Brahms chain, and two Brahms hits (the first breaking Lucid Barrier) doesn't 2HKO Purim through Defender....  the turn order is something like: Barrier, Attack, Defender, Attack, Barrier, Attack, Cure Water, Attack, Barrier, Attack, Lucent Beam, Attack, Lucent Beam.  That's giving him 6 shots of unleashing Bloody Curse.  It gets even worse if Purim doesn't 2HKO with Lucid Barrier, which I'd find pretty easy to see - taking a party of something like Lenneth and 3 Mages to get through Brahms' Castle is generally infeasible, so I'm not sure I'd hold multiple magic users against Brahms' HP that much.

That said, I think I'd see Purim getting lucky and Brahms never activating Bloody Curse against VP1 as more likely than Brahms getting lucky, going first, and stunning Purim out in his VP2 form.  As I'm not sure I give Brahms full credit for form-choice due to VP1's legality issues, leaning toward Purim here.

Brahms has a 25% chance of using Bloody Curse when undamaged and a 50% chance below 50%. The chance of him not activating over 6 turns of attacking with one of those turns having a 50% chance is quite small (a little better than 10%?

[SnowFire]

Certainly.  VP1 Brahms does win most of the time, and that's even giving Purim all the favorable breaks (since as you noted earlier it seems like Brahms can break through Lucid Barrier in one attack chain anyway, which would instantly put her out of business).  It's more the fact that it's plausible that Purim could maybe beat VP1 Brahms if you squint and she gets really lucky that makes me feel better about voting for her, since I'm not entirely certain how legal I hold VP1 to be.

[Dhyerwolf]

I mean, you could just vote against Brahms for finding the form illegal, since the other method seems to be saying that Brahms doesn't OHKO the barrier, which he likely does, and then he has a string of luck that even the nefarious Hatbot likely wouldn't even dole out. If you just go by very long shots, then you can justify almost any match (99% status still misses 1% of the time and such!).

[superaielman]

Ash Lambert (VH) vs Melfice (G2): Definitely don't see Melfice evade as 100%, so need to think about this. Are there any conditions to Melfice using Shhh? I definitely didn't see it in either fight.

Melfice himself uses it, which explains the rarity. He has a couple of moves (gravity, def-loss) that don't come up much in game for that reason.

Edit: Good lord. Quistis barely 4HKOs under the best possible average for FF8. Anri wins pretty easily, she can chip and 3HKO there well enough.