Season 53, Week 6

[superaielman]

Team Zophar (Zophar, Kary, Axl, Jin) vs Team Xorn (Xorn, Demi, Yulie, Garet)

H/G: Kuja, Rubicant, Terra, Asellus, Demi, Kary

M/H: Tana, Agrias, Nina2, Regal, Axl, Yulie

L/M: Junpei, Raijin, Lun, Joachim, Garet, Jin

[superaielman]

Team Xorn- better built for a team fight in general, is my kneejerk. Two revivers plus OH DEAR GOD HASTED XORN.

H/G:

Terra>Rubicant>Kary=Asellus>Demi>Kuja


Terra sweeps. Her only really challenging fight is  Kary, and Kary's MDef should save the day there. Rubicant handles the rest. He outslugs Kuja even with Reflect, as his 3HKO physical is more than enough to handle Kuja considering the durability difference and him getting first strike. Demi is likely heal locked thanks to counters/scorch being that wrong, which is really impressive.

Kary 2HKOs Kuja either way (Fire 2+physical or double physical if Kuja doesn't reflect), isn't 3-2's or 2HKOed. She also has enough physical offense to grind Asellus up. Asellus IDs Demi and should be able to chip/smash past Kuja's flare star range. Demi has a couple of good matches but just loses out, though she does grind Kuja up, who fails to 2HKO her. Kuja needs out of Godlike in the worst way. Barely PC HP and 3HKO damage and no status does not make for a Godlike.

How I think it'll go: Demi/Kary stay down.

M/H: Tana, Agrias, Nina2, Axl, Yulie

How I'll vote:

Tana=Yulie=Axl>Agrias>Nina 2


Tana>Yulie>Axl>Tana. All dominate the pool. Agrias spoils Nina 2. Regal probably deserves to burn.

How I think it'll go: Agrias and Nina 2 down. Regal should be able to scrape out a few wins.



L/M: Raijin, Lun, Joachim, Garet, Jin


How I'll vote:

Joachim>Garet=?Lun>>>>>Raijin>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Jin

Jin is fodder, same as always. Raijin is better fodder. Lun/Joachim is really ugly, since I'm not sure she can kill him in two rounds.Probably Lun? We'll see. Garet/Lun is also a tossup, though I'm strongly leaning towards Lun there.

How I think it'll go: Jin stays down, Raijin downgrades.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Team Zophar (Zophar, Kary, Axl, Jin) vs Team Xorn (Xorn, Demi, Yulie, Garet) - Taking EBC Zophar for this fight... Demi and Yulie are entirely irrelevant. Zophar gets a turn after Xorn's first with his high 2HKO magic and before most everybody else - and this should OHKO Demi without much fuss, her mdur is pretty trashy before Barrier. Problem one solved. Yulie herself just gets OHKOed by Kary, and Xorn can't 2HKO Kary at full HP either. At this point, Axl already went invisible unless Xorn focused on killing him (and he honestly has no reason to unless he wants to eat Fate Storm from Zophar next turn and explode), and now Xorn needs to deal with Zophar's full team when his only living backup is a... PC. I don't think this is ending up well for team Xorn.

[Dark Holy Elf]

H/G: Kuja, Rubicant, Terra, Demi, Kary

Terra sweeps... probably? Kuja is a bit problematic, but she will dodge once, and... well, Kuja does probably 3-2? Then again, Drain, Kuja only kills on doubles if he hits twice, and if he fails to do damage he eats Ultima. Sure, I can vote Terra there. Meanwhile, Ultima OHKOs Kary (whose Hold isn't turn 1 here), Minerva owns Rubicant, and Demi is probably OHKOed as well and has no chance even if it doesn't. 4-0

Rubicant OHKOs Kuja (Scorch isn't reflectable, right?). Kary gets owned despite 70% fire resistance. Demi... can Barrier and make a game of it with fire res. Actually, yeah, don't see what Rubi has on that, he can go for physicals and those aren't bad but I doubt they heal-lock. 2-2

Demi just gets pressured too badly by Kuja. 2-2

Kuja's fast ITD owns Kary. 2-2

Figured Kary might do better in a H/G pool, but no. 0-4

M/H: Tana, Agrias, Nina2, Axl, Yulie

Tana shreds Yulie in the worst way. Axl goes invincible, and... well, depends on if some things are ITE or not. I dunno. May have to abstain on that one without that knowledge, the match so clearly depends on it. Tana goes first and 2HKOs Agrias, outspeeds Nina and evades Death anyway. 3-0

Axl's invincibility owns Agrias and Nina2 since neither can heal. 2-1

Yulie immunes Death and is generally much better than Nina2. Agrias presents a more interesting challenge because a Stop from Stasis Sword is fatal, and it 2HKOs. Yulie's best bet is to... haste, take a hit, attack and heal, take a hit, attack and heal, take a hit, attack twice (fourth Sword will stop). This should kill. Agrias about 2HKOs on the dot with Stasis Sword, so Sacrifice still deals 5000, and Yulie can heal after each. The final turn has heal then Sacrifice for 10000. ... and this doesn't quiite kill. Granted, Yulie can throw in physicals with Gaia Hoop, but they're pretty inaccurate and Agrias has evade. Though Yulie only needs one, looking at it... is that too much? Probably. Yulie needs to have >80% hit here and I doubt she does. Sooo... Agrias does win, and Yulie is 2-2

Agrias' Aegis Shield and ID blocker give Nina some trouble. 2-2

Nina2 doesn't like this field at all. That's it for her at last? 0-4

L/M: Raijin, Lun, Joachim, Jin

Joachim vs. Lun is the only interesting match. Lun is faster, but faces turn 2 ID, so she needs to 2HKO. She does, by the skin of her teeth. If Joachim uses Barrier, he gets his third turn (with which he kills) a little faster, in 2.8 rounds. Lun is fast enough to get 3 in 2.65 rounds, though. Even a less kind interp of TB speed should see her as fast enough, I think. Very close, though.

Lun > Joachim > Raijin > Jin. No need to explain the last two, beyond "I vote on XS2 Jin".

[Monkeyfinger]

Neb's analyses seem right to me except that I see Kuja taking a drain + ultima, so he beats terra.

[Dhyerwolf]

H/G: Kuja, Rubicant, Terra, Asellus, Demi, Kary

Terra>Rest to Start With. Rubicant should beat everyone else but Demi.

Kuja...well, Asellus 2HKOs, can chip, and can take 2 FSes (I believe? Or is her HP not good). Loses to Demi, since doesn't 2HKO and misses a good chunk of the time (And needs to both 2HKO and not miss to make his pressure work). Kary...probably has about 70% PC HP. Fail match there. Original would just OHKO Kuja (unless her raw HP was bad enough to be OHKOed).

Asellus IDs Demi, and Kary hurts my head again.

Terra 5-0
Rubicant 4-1
Asellus 2-2
Demi 2-3
Kuja 0-4
Kary 0-3

M/H: Tana, Agrias, Nina2, Regal, Axl, Yulie

Basically same as NEB (And assuming Axl is ITE, since based on how much evasion some MMXCM enemies had, seems like it would have been noted if Hypers could missed by people who didn't try to black out on the game)...but throw in Regal losing to everyone but...maybe Axl. Abstain there, since I don't want to math out Regal's shitty healing and his attempts to stall. Regal should go down regardless.

L/M: Junpei, Raijin, Lun, Joachim, Garet, Jin

Junpei loses to Joachim and likely Garet (Status fun!). Beats everyone else.
Raijin...loses to everyone, including XS 2 Jin. He's slow, has bad HP, and 3HKOs. Jin is faster and 3HKOs.
Lun...does about 100.1% damage over two turns to Joachim...but stealing NEB's numbers, looks like Lun's third turn comes at 283% to me, and if Joachim can get his at 280%, then he wins there. Garet...going to say that he wins there since Fire res+HP+can stack status chances if you goes for the status halving.
Joachim immunes Paralysis and therefore beats Garet.

Joachim 5-0
Garet 4-1
Junpei 3-2
Lun 2-3
Jin 1-4
Raijin 0-5

[Dark Holy Elf]

assuming Axl is ITE, since based on how much evasion some MMXCM enemies had, seems like it would have been noted if Hypers could missed by people who didn't try to black out on the game

To be fair, the reason it would be missed is because the ability in question is Ninetails, an aftergame ability which, once you get it, you have basically nothing left to fight. Sooo... yeah, no clue whether it's ITE or not. The version used by Ninetails itself seemed to be, so that might be some reason to assume it is, but that seems a little risky seeing as most MMXCM attacks aren't (unless you use the Hawkeye, of course).

[Dhyerwolf]

Was it not just hyper ATs in general where it was unsure if they were ITE, or just Ninetails (And the rest aren't)?

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Zero's HAT definitely isn't ITE. Can't say about Gundam Heavyarms Armor, but the normal HAT X had wasn't ITE either.

[James_xeno]

Team Zophar (Zophar, Kary, Axl, Jin) vs Team Xorn (Xorn, Demi, Yulie, Garet) - Jo sums things up nicely. Zophar's a Killer in team/group fights. Not only does he basically make this eight on four... but is able to kill off one of team Xorn from the very start, before anyone gets to do anything.

--

H/G: Kuja, Rubicant, Terra, Asellus, Demi, Kary

Terra KOs Kary, owns both Rubicant and Demi. Asellus gives her a fight, but not enough of one I don't think. Kuja's FS owns Ultima Terra, and reflect does so without. (3-1, 1)

Rubicant takes out Kary, but doesn't outlast Demi. Asellus...would have to think about this a little more. Kuja... Reflect work here? I know it did work on a lot of stuff in IV. If not, counter helps make it a fight, but I'm not sure if it's enough here. again, i'd have to think about this more. (1-2, 2)

Kuja deals with Kary and Demi but may have problems with Asellus. (3-1, 1)

Asellus bests Kary but falls to Demi. (2-2, 1)

Demi > Kary. (3-2)

Kary (0-5)

--

M/H: Tana, Agrias, Nina2, Regal, Axl, Yulie

L/M: Junpei, Raijin, Lun, Joachim, Garet, Jin