Season 61, Week 1

[superaielman]

Godlike:

1-Myria (BoFs) vs Sierra Mikain (S2)
Beatrix (FF9) vs Luca Blight (S2)
Johnny Garland (SH3) vs Gilbert (SH3)
Ellen Kirishima (Pers) vs 4-Loki (VP1)

Heavy:

1-Songi (LoL1) vs Kary (FF1)
Sgt Joe (S3) vs Cameela (SF2)
Momo (BoF3) vs Hector (FE7)
Lin (BoF5) vs 3-Hrist Valkyrie (VP2)

Middle:

1-Leah (CC) vs Felius Arwin (XF)
Venusaur (PKMN) vs Lexis Shaia (Lufia 2)
L'Arachel (FE8) vs Bowser Koopa (SMRPG)
Leon Magnus (ToD) vs 3-Humphrey Mintz (Suikos)


Light:

1-Lucia (EBC)vs Alanis (S3)
Norn (OB) vs Nara (DW4)
Roy (S5) vs Kogoro (S3)
Yam Koo (S1) vs 3-Reis Dular (FFT)

[superaielman]

Godlike:

1-Myria (BoFs) vs Sierra Mikain (S2)
Beatrix (FF9) vs Luca Blight (S2)- Status halving days the day. Beatrix needs to nail Blind and then avoid Luca's physicals for long enough to heal her way out of trouble. Definitely don't see that happening.
Johnny Garland (SH3) vs Gilbert (SH3)- I... think?
Ellen Kirishima (Pers) vs 4-Loki (VP1)- I don't think Ellen gets that 2HKO in the DL. Loki's right around PC HP to me against magic, or a hair above. He 2HKOs with Shadow Servant.

Heavy:

1-Songi (LoL1) vs Kary (FF1)- butbutbut chaos flare?!?! No. Kary's giving up a lot of HP, but she has a notable lead in offense and is going first.
Sgt Joe (S3) vs Cameela (SF2)- She's built to smash Heavy healers.
Momo (BoF3) vs Hector (FE7)- Think she can buff her way out of trouble. Hector is probably more like a high middle nowadays, sadly.
Lin (BoF5) vs 3-Hrist Valkyrie (VP2)- Smashes Lin's face in.

Middle:

1-Leah (CC) vs Felius Arwin (XF)- Leah's offense is seriously impressive... for a couple of turns. It's more than enough to handle Felius.
Venusaur (PKMN) vs Lexis Shaia (Lufia 2)- No starting IP. I think that fight hinges on that (Either status IP would be fatal). As is, Lexis goes first and 2HKOs, but it doesn't matter when Sleep powder knocks him out and Venusaur pounds his face in. I don't think Bravery will tip the fight either, and that's his only other chance.
L'Arachel (FE8) vs Bowser Koopa (SMRPG)- Did Terrorize affect evasion at all? He wins if it does and loses if it doesn't.
Leon Magnus (ToD) vs 3-Humphrey Mintz (Suikos)- Zero respect for Leon's magic.


Light:

1-Lucia (EBC) vs Alanis (S3)- Alanis is pretty terrible.
Norn (OB) vs Nara (DW4)- OHKO.
Roy (S5) vs Kogoro (S3)
Yam Koo (S1) vs 3-Reis Dular (FFT)- Faster 3HKO. Yam Koo is almost certainly going to win this half of Light, which says something.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike:

1-Myria (BoFs) vs Sierra Mikain (S2): Obvious.
Beatrix (FF9) vs Luca Blight (S2): Yeah, temp form doesn't have the MP, and endgame's healing isn't good enough. I'm not sure which form I take, but if either loses decisively I'm likely to vote against her, sooo...
Johnny Garland (SH3) vs Gilbert (SH3): SH3 boss HP respect as always isn't high. Feels kinda off since Johnny doesn't have Ether Purge when he faces Gilbert (and therefore gets destroyed) but that's the way the DL is.

Heavy:

Sgt Joe (S3) vs Cameela (SF2): Better Heavy.
Momo (BoF3) vs Hector (FE7): Speeds herself up to control the fight, puts Hector to sleep.
Lin (BoF5) vs 3-Hrist Valkyrie (VP2): Death immune, assuming she doesn't just land stone first turn.

Middle:

1-Leah (CC) vs Felius Arwin (XF): I could be underrating Felius' tankishness, but I don't think so.
Venusaur (PKMN) vs Lexis Shaia (Lufia 2): Sleep Powder is pretty hax.
L'Arachel (FE8) vs Bowser Koopa (SMRPG): As far as I know Terrorise doesn't affect evasion. I also don't think it matters; magical, evadable status against L'Arachel off below average speed = no.

Light:

1-Lucia (EBC) vs Alanis (S3): Alanis offence is too pathetic and limited, so gets owned by Lucia healing. Epic.
Roy (S5) vs Kogoro (S3): Resists freeze.
Yam Koo (S1) vs 3-Reis Dular (FFT): Huh, Yam Koo's mdur is significantly better than I thought. (0.94x average.) So yeah, an easy win here.

[superaielman]

I thought Bowser ended up above average speed with work pants. If not, fight is a blowout.

[Dark Holy Elf]

He doesn't. +5 to game-worst speed just gets him to below average.

[superaielman]

Oh. He's toast.

Beatrix (FF9) vs Luca Blight (S2): I dunno, awaiting arguments on this one. It's possible Beatrix can evade her way into extra turns which she can use to cast Blind, and once that hits she wins. It's also possible these opportunities don't present themselves reliably.

Beatrix is on the low end of the evasion scale and is relying on nonfull healing at endgame to try and keep up with Luca's damage. That isn't going to cut it. Similarly, she has MP issues with the temp form (Cura is 10 MP to like 85 at the time) and she is going to have to try to blitz. Even if she does land Blind, she has to survive Luca's next couple of turns so she can heal up.

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike:

1-Myria (BoFs) vs Sierra Mikain (S2)
Beatrix (FF9) vs Luca Blight (S2)- Holy is about 1.5 PC HP damage, and given how many people work on cutting through Luca's HP, I don't see it being good enough to let him get through this.
Johnny Garland (SH3) vs Gilbert (SH3)
Ellen Kirishima (Pers) vs 4-Loki (VP1)

Heavy:

1-Songi (LoL1) vs Kary (FF1)- DoS Kary makes this easy, although Songi is a Godlike eitehr way!
Sgt Joe (S3) vs Cameela (SF2)
Momo (BoF3) vs Hector (FE7)
Lin (BoF5) vs 3-Hrist Valkyrie (VP2)- Boss form

Middle:

1-Leah (CC) vs Felius Arwin (XF)- Not mathing this out, but Leah's 1st or 2nd! in HP, defense and damage curves, so it's pretty easy to imagine her winning in a straight slugfest. Felius can't say that, and his cast is 1/7 the size!
Venusaur (PKMN) vs Lexis Shaia (Lufia 2)- Yeah, I'm to the point where I'm okay with starting IPs/whatever equivalent.
L'Arachel (FE8) vs Bowser Koopa (SMRPG)- Unsure. Don't see both resistance and evasion checking Terrorize, so not sure L'Arachel has the stats to evade it turn 1.    Hmm, checking resistance wouldn't be a problem, checking evade could be. Gut heavily leaning towards her so I think the vote will be going that way.
Leon Magnus (ToD) vs 3-Humphrey Mintz (Suikos)


Light:

1-Lucia (EBC)vs Alanis (S3)
Norn (OB) vs Nara (DW4)
Roy (S5) vs Kogoro (S3)
Yam Koo (S1) vs 3-Reis Dular (FFT)

[Bardiche]

Godlike:

1-Myria (BoFs) vs Sierra Mikain (S2) - who's my writeup kidding, Sierra's toast. 8(
Beatrix (FF9) vs Luca Blight (S2) - Not quite as sold on status halving "daying the day" as super seems to be. Luca's not bad, but, yeah. I think I'll go with Beato.
Johnny Garland (SH3) vs Gilbert (SH3) - ... lol. Match-up from heaven. GJ, DL.
Ellen Kirishima (Pers) vs 4-Loki (VP1)

Heavy:

1-Songi (LoL1) vs Kary (FF1)
Momo (BoF3) vs Hector (FE7) - Speed, Heal, Defense, Heal, Sleep Hector, Earthquake.
Lin (BoF5) vs 3-Hrist Valkyrie (VP2) - Lin never impressed me much.

Middle:

Venusaur (PKMN) vs Lexis Shaia (Lufia 2) - ... I've always disliked Pokémon in the DL.
L'Arachel (FE8) vs Bowser Koopa (SMRPG)
Leon Magnus (ToD) vs 3-Humphrey Mintz (Suikos) - Tanks. I should probably look up just how tanky, but I'll permit Windspun Armour etcetera and take him in his best form anyway. Go Humphrey! Lose in the next round regardless!

Light:

1-Lucia (EBC) vs Alanis (S3) - Alanis can't OHKO Lucia. She has one shot of her best damage, and it's a 3HKO. Meanwhile Lucia has infinite healing. Yeah, tanks Alanis until she's out of MP charges, then mops up.
Roy (S5) vs Kogoro (S3) - Not a dog.
Yam Koo (S1) vs 3-Reis Dular (FFT) - A dragon swoops down and eats your head.

[Pyro]

Godlike:

1-Myria (BoFs) vs Sierra Mikain (S2): Oh come on.
Beatrix (FF9) vs Luca Blight (S2): does she even get a second turn?
Johnny Garland (SH3) vs Gilbert (SH3): not feeling the aftergame love right now.
Ellen Kirishima (Pers) vs 4-Loki (VP1): Dark magic. Go figure. If she had healing she could hope for an evade but she doesn't.

Heavy:

1-Songi (LoL1) vs Kary (FF1): The fire fiend is no match for the power of BACKFLIPZ.
Sgt Joe (S3) vs Cameela (SF2): Ouch pain death.
Momo (BoF3) vs Hector (FE7): he may have a chance with a Killer Axe though?
Lin (BoF5) vs 3-Hrist Valkyrie (VP2): Boss or ID immunity. I'll decide which later.

Middle:

1-Leah (CC) vs Felius Arwin (XF): Felius doesn't 2HKO and doesn't go first. This is generally a bad sign for him.
Venusaur (PKMN) vs Lexis Shaia (Lufia 2): He doesn't need much in the way of IP to do this. 50 is more than enough.
L'Arachel (FE8) vs Bowser Koopa (SMRPG): I... think.
Leon Magnus (ToD) vs 3-Humphrey Mintz (Suikos): Physical tanking.


Light:

1-Lucia (EBC)vs Alanis (S3)
Norn (OB) vs Nara (DW4)
Roy (S5) vs Kogoro (S3)
Yam Koo (S1) vs 3-Reis Dular (FFT): I... guess...

[Sei]

Godlike:

1-Myria (BoFs) vs Sierra Mikain (S2) - Squish
Beatrix (FF9) vs Luca Blight (S2) - Low MP does seem to do Beatrix in here.
Ellen Kirishima (Pers) vs 4-Loki (VP1) - Hits weakness. Curses~

Heavy:

1-Songi (LoL1) vs Kary (FF1) - Actually pretty close. I see both of them doing a 3HKO on each other so this will depend on who goes first. So... does Songi's speed lean more towards above average or below average?
Momo (BoF3) vs Hector (FE7) - Buff, Heal, Sleep, Win

Middle:

1-Leah (CC) vs Felius Arwin (XF) - Simple slugfest. Leah has the better stats and damage output.
Leon Magnus (ToD) vs 3-Humphrey Mintz (Suikos) - Yeah, Leon's magic never impressed me.

Light:

1-Lucia (EBC) vs Alanis (S3) - Not Alanis
Roy (S5) vs Kogoro (S3) - Not a Suikodog
Yam Koo (S1) vs 3-Reis Dular (FFT) - A Suiko-scrub winning? Well, Light is Light.

[James_xeno]

Beatrix (FF9) vs Luca Blight (S2) - Halves Fire, considerably faster, full healing (with holy boosting), and about 1.5x PCHP damage. She also has blind, which has a 75% base accuracy and Luca does not resist it.  I don't see Luca as much more than ~1.xPCHP. ( after fighting two complete teams of PCs..) So MP really isn't an issue here.

Beatrix's uses many of the same equips as Steiner. Thus she does get good def and evade. And if you scale temps to end-game. Beatrix ends up with the second best PDEF, above average evade, and fire immunity. (with end-game equips) Plus a nice little boost to her already PC best speed.

Either way, this isn't going to end well for Luca!

Beatrix (FF9) vs Luca Blight (S2): does she even get a second turn?

Beatrix is faster, and halves fire. Luca's physical based attack only 4-5HKO's average. I'd say yeah. The real question is whether or not Luca gets a second one.

[superaielman]

Her defensive stats are more in line with Freya's. More specifically her HP and defense are completely unremarkable if you scale her to the time, and her evasion isn't a factor.

[Dhyerwolf]

I'll note that Luca has the very arguable problem that he may not 4HKO Beatrix (4HKOS for sure...if you scale his physical attacks against the back row where he can't really hit too easily). If not, he's eating 2 Holies (his second turn is basicaly average speed, so he's looking at getting in 4 attacks).

Also noting here than changing my vote to Venusaur. Still allowing some starting IP, but due to the way Lufia 2 scales it, HP wise, not enough.

[Monkeyfinger]

In suikoden, when you're alone, you're forced into the front row, so I can't see holding the existence of the back row against Luca like I do FF bosses.

[Dhyerwolf]

But it means that in game, Luca's facing more defense when using his physical attacks than "average defense." I took Luca's 120 damage in the topic from Gourry saying average defense was 160...but no idea if that includes the back row people who realistically Luca can't even be aiming certain attacks at.

[Dark Holy Elf]

If he kills people in the front row, he can target people in the back (since the back/front automatically swap positions when the front PC dies). Scaling a boss assuming he never kills anyone doesn't seem to make much sense to me.

160 def average would include everyone, for what it's worth.

[Bardiche]

Luca also has that piercing burning attack that hits backrow characters just fine, afaik.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Right, but that's fire magic and not especially relevant here since Beatrix either halves or nulls that.

[Dhyerwolf]

I seem to remember Luca...really being bad at killling people though in game? Doesn't help that you bruise his face in a few turns and he flees to face a new fresh group of PCs. Yeah, doesn't matter since I already seeing 1.5 PC HP taking him out, but it takes so little to push him to 4HKOing Beatrix (A scanty 20 defense is all), in which case he's eating 2 Holies for 3 PC HP damage.

[James_xeno]

Her defensive stats are more in line with Freya's. More specifically her HP and defense are completely unremarkable if you scale her to the time, and her evasion isn't a factor.

Yes and Freya has the 2nd best PC PDEF. (Takes 74.9% from physicals.)

Beatrix's HP is average, and her physical defense (if she's not scaled to endgame) is almost that (~94%). Which is more than good enough to prevent a 3HKO against 28% 4HKO damage. And to be fair. I'm not quite sure what equips that DEF number is with. (i.e. whether it represents her with just default equips, or the best stuff you could get at that point in the game.)

[Monkeyfinger]

Godlike:

Beatrix (FF9) vs Luca Blight (S2): Even without the back row thing I don't see Luna 4HKOing.
Johnny Garland (SH3) vs Gilbert (SH3): Isn't OHKOed and gets the second turn faster?

Heavy:

Momo (BoF3) vs Hector (FE7): Killer crit should OHKO through any buffs.

Middle:

L'Arachel (FE8) vs Bowser Koopa (SMRPG): I don't see anyone except for like Eirika evading 1/2 starting attacks, and Terrorize explicitly doesn't check MDef unless I'm going crazy.

[Magic Fanatic]

Middle:

L'Arachel (FE8) vs Bowser Koopa (SMRPG): I don't see anyone except for like Eirika evading 1/2 starting attacks, and Terrorize explicitly doesn't check MDef unless I'm going crazy.

According to the Battle Mechanics guide, the formula for Terrorize is as such:

max((R + 1),[(MA + 10 - MDf) + (R * [(MA + 10 - MDf) / 16])]

R being the number of rotations on the control pad, rather than a random number...  However, that's somewhat irrelevant, as the check for Fear seems to be independent of the actual formula for its damage.  At least, I'm pretty sure that's the case.