Team SMASH: Geno / Alexia / Zerase (winners) vs Team Speed Manip: Fie (Cold Steel) / Arnaud / Tidus (losers)
Yeah, probably. Fie blocks ID and reverse Uno Geno with Scud Ripper's ID since Geno doesn't have a blocker himself. Fie vs. Alexia is actually a bit more interesting IMO then what Random gives it credit since she can open with Status Lock. Blocking ID/Faint forces Fie to slug it out and it's a case where her magic damage actually comes into play. And Fie's magic damage is uh...bad. The good news is Alexia has a weakness to Wind, so kneejerk is Fie PROBABLY wins, but I dunno. Those spells aren't cheap and if Fie is casting them, she'll run out of resources pretty quickly, which impacts her ability to keep the large speed advantage going. Still, Alexia sacrificing her 1st turn to Status Lock isn't optimal, but she kinda needs other wise Fie can probably insta-double with Scud Ripper. So that's probably enough. She probably does get through Fie's Evade on her 2nd Swing since her armor ability reduces Evasion against melee targets, but being like 65% average speed against a PC with 202% average speed is not a situation where you want to take 2+ turns to win. From there, Zerase has to reverse OCV and that's pretty unlikely.
Even in the situation where Alexia beats Fie, I'm not sure team SMASH actually has a winning play. Alexia vs. Arnaud is a match that heavily favours Arnaud since Status Lock can be dispelled. So Alexia has to go for a physical and 2 round. If you see Fie's 60% evade as good enough to dodge the 1st strike, there's no reason why Arnaud's better evade wouldn't either. So he should perfect that fight pretty clean, which leads to the Arnaud + Tidus situation against Zerase again.
