...%@$#%$ #@&%
I've been wrong about three people so far this game, so I wanna make a full review of the &@$#@% thread before makin' a $@%$#& decision here. Brace yourselves, 'cause this post is gonna be a %@$#@& big one. Gonna try to take everything into account, though I dunno how much the &$@#%$ voting record is gonna help us in this case. Everyone who's still alive made a serious &@$#@% case against a confirmed townie yesterday and day one's abrupt ending just %@$#%& muddies the waters. But I'm not gonna say the &@$#@% voting record's completely useless even in a situation this &@$#@% crazy, so I'll try to make use of it in conjunction with other scummy behavior.
Gonna tackle one %@$#@% person at a time, just goin' down the %$%$&# list on the first page.
A) Sherlock Holmes. Got some bad press early on for posting %@$#@% words without meaning. This is a valid $#@%$& criticism and a mark against him, but he got more %#$@%& involved on the second day. It remains possible that this is %&#@$% scum responding to pressure rather than just town having more %#$@%$ material to work with, but he did have plenty of %$%&@# analysis geared against Jack and the robot--criticisms I find it &%@$#% hard to disagree with even though both of 'em flipped town. I don't agree with him on everything, but there are few specific statements I can %&^#@$ pull out to use against him.
Well, there's always %$%&#$ this:
The same goes for Cid. Choosing a lynch on the logic that one way or the other, the flip will be informative is a dangerous game, especially when a mislynch puts us in LYLO. If we lynch town and get a ton of information from it, we're still one incorrect vote from losing the game. I'd rather hit uninformative scum.
I already responded to this &%$#, but I'm trying to be %#$@%& comprehensive here so: this ignores my actual %#$%#& stance on the player in question and boils it down to %#@$#% "lynching for information." Could be a misreading, could be bad %#$#%& wording on my part, but Yoda made the same %#$%#& observation and I'll explain at length when I get to him why the argument %&$%#@ bothers me. In short, ignoring the %&%$@# specifics of someone else's post is just bad $%$&#@ logic.
But aside from that, I'm not finding a whole lot I can %$&%#@ pin on Holmes. I'm willing to ^$%^&# consider him if someone has some &%$%#@ persuasive arguments, but he takes a backseat to the &#$@%$ Jedi.
B) Worf. Looks pretty %$%&#@ much like town to me. The big &#$@%$ issue is his total reversal on the &@$#%@ pirate yesterday. Now, I voiced my &#$%@# skepticism of that move at the time but didn't consider it cause for a vote both for finding the Klingon's other points %#$@%& agreeable and for having more pressing suspects. With Jacko's cardflip in hand, I think he only looks $%#%$& better. The argument could be made that he backed off of Jacko to avoid bein' seen &%#@$% training a $%#$@% townie, but I don't see any &$@%#$ logic behind that. I'll go into that point more when I get to talking about &$#@%$ Yoda, since it's &$#@%$ hard to disentangle the two by this point, but in sum: I do not #%@$#& see it as a wise move for a scum Worf to make. It involves simultaneously passing up a %@$#%& easy townie lynch AND opening himself up to massive &%&#@$ criticism for the reversal--and he did get plenty of &#@$#% criticism for it, that's for %$&%@# sure. It's %$%&@# untenable to suggest that a scum player would take both these risks at once.
Barring some $%#$&@ major screwups on his part, I'm unlikely to consider him for lynching today.
C) Yoda. This breakdown's gonna be %$%&@# long since he was and remains my main $%#%&$ suspect. Let's start with his day one case against &#$@%# Megatron. I admit there was good cause to suspect the &#$%@# robot, and I did so myself, but Yoda's reasoning never %&$#@% worked for me. In the %&#$@% Jedi's own words:
Flailing against my argument Megatron is. Point you have missed. Ignore discussion without reason you did. By my own action had joke voting begun to fade. Little reason to joke vote when you did there was.
Check out those last two %#@$#& sentences. I called attention to this before, but it looks %#@$#& worse in light of Megatron being confirmed town. Ending of the &#@$#% jokevote phase isn't as %#@$&% clearcut as the Jedi makes it out to be. Now, I've admitted before that Yoda's day one vote on &#@$#% Captain Sparrow did make a valid point, but tryin' to pin a definitive %@$#@& end to the jokevote phase on one of his own posts both artificially inflates Yoda's townie cred and exaggerates a point to build a %@#$%& case against someone. It's not the last &#$@%$ time he does somethin' like that, either, and this style of argument isn't &#@%$# something I associate with a town perspective. Scum arguments have to be built from %@$#%& scratch and you can see the seams in willful generalizations like this. Yoda's posts are %$#@%& riddled with this kind of argument.
And that argument against $%#$%& Megatron is most of Yoda's day one content. Not only that, but he $%#@$& helped lynch Megatron yesterday without greatly expanding his %$%&@# case against him. Of course, Yoda himself was the other $@$#&$ candidate for lynching there, and I'll concede that even from a town perspective someone other than yourself dying is always the best course of events, so it's hard to hold that $#%$#& vote against him.
Lot's been made of him dropping off the %@#$%& radar near the end of the day. He claims he didn't see the end of the day coming so %@#$%& soon, and I gotta admit that there's no $@%#$& way someone could. But he did have nineteen %@#$&% hours between his last day one post and the time the %@#$%& lawyer got herself killed. I don't know the Jedi's %&$@#% schedule, but that seems like a lotta time. This isn't %@$#&% grounds for condemnation by itself, but it's something to consider in conjunction with his other mistakes.
Moving on to day two, there's the %&#@$% infamous argument about jokevotes. What $%#@%& set people off is right here:
Matter not does reason for voting, for even joke votes may serve the Dark Side.
I admit more's been made of this &#@$#% point than is probably warranted, but it's &$@#%$ easy to see why Worf reacted to it. It's %&#@$% phrased generally enough that I find it %&#@$% easy to see it as a calculated scum attempt to drum up suspicion of someone else, at least in light of similar arguments the %#$@$& Jedi's made. Again, not &#@$%# damning by itself, but it's characteristic of the way Yoda's been arguing throughout the %&#@$% game.
Next up's the $%$#@& debate over Jacko's misreadin' of Worf--and it's pretty &#$@%# clear now that that's what it was, since the &#$@%# pirate's now confirmed as town--and how people reacted to it. Most of this %@$#$& mess involved people questioning Worf's %&#@$% reasoning and I admit to sharing some skepticism there. I'm not one to put a lot of stock in %&#@$% "gut feelings." The fact that Sparrow's now %@$#%& confirmed as town casts this whole argument in a new light, though. There are a couple ways to look at the whole %&@$#% mess: 1) Worf's motivation for switching his vote was $@%$#& exactly what he said it was; 2) Worf, if $%$#@% scum in this scenario, didn't wish to be seen building a train against a townie and took a %#$@%& opportunity to back off. The second $#%$#& explanation's pretty &%^&$# hard for me to believe just for it bein' such an obvious &$#@$% blunder. No, I'm not saying scum can't make %#$%#& mistakes, I just can't see how it woulda been advantageous for Worf to make a reversal that so clearly exposes him to criticism if he was $#%$#& scum.
A deciding factor here is that while %@$#&% everyone called Jacko out on his infamous misreading, most did it in the context of $#%$#@ correcting a simple error. Yoda's the one who &@$#%# jumped on it and used it as the reason for a vote. There were plenty of %@$#%& good reasons to suspect the pirate at the time and plenty of people did, but only Yoda seized on what we now know was a %@$#@& townie making an honest mistake.
Moving on, here's another one of those %&#@$% generalizations I %&#@$% dislike so much:
Final point which concerns me. Split desires, many people have. Falling back to "suspicious" vs "what we will learn from the lynch," many people are. Think suspicions should take precedent, I do. If think one target more suspicious, vote them you should. Let lurking scum slip by does lynching based on information.
He didn't $%#$%& address this to anyone specifically, but both Megatron and myself noted that a point in favor of &@$#%$ lynching Yoda was that we'd get plenty of &$#@$% information out of it so I gotta assume he at least had me in mind. I never %@#$%& said I was for lynching Yoda JUST for the sake of &#@$#% getting information. Said I suspected both him and %@$#%& Sparrow, about equal for the %@$#@& record, and that I chose Yoda at the time because he'd give us more to work with the next %&#@$% day. It was never about %&#@$% ignoring lurking scum, it was about setting &#$@$# priorities. The %&#$@% Jedi has a habit of ignoring the specifics of a situation and this is just one %@$#@& example. Sherlock made the same %$#%&# comment but I feel he lacks Yoda's other tells.
In sum? Yoda's got a #@$#%& wide variety of nagging scumtells, none of which is %@$#%& damning on its own but which collectively make up a &@$#@% pattern of behavior which is far more reminiscent of scum constructing arguments than it is of a %@$#@& townie. The fact that he's spent most of the last %&#@$% day goin' after someone who reads town to me--not to mention that Yoda's %$&@$# case against Worf only started when the Klingon voted for him, which looks odd even if he genuinely disagreed with Worf's logic--only &#@$#% adds to this impression. I feel very $%@$#& strongly that lynching him is our best bet right now and I will continue to press for this. One of the $@#$%& Sith, I think he is.
D) Mr. T.'s in the same boat as the $%#%$& limey, only without the liability of $#%$#& low presence early in the game. This makes him look a little %&@$#@ better, but they're &#@$#% close to second place in line for getting &#@$#% booted off the Highwind. Still a $#@% sight passed Yoda, of course. I admit to having somethin' of a %$%&@# blind spot in regards to the T., and that if there's anyone I need to look at more closely it's him, but I just can't recall anything specific that raises $#%$#& warning flags here.
Now, this post took way too &#@%$# long and I need a %@$#@& drink, but I'll be around as much today as I can $%#%$& afford to be. As a final %#$@%$ word, I got nothing helpful to add in the way of %$%&@# roleclaims. Just %$%#&@ vanilla, an airship pilot without a &%#@$% airship. Could be I don't have to %$%&@# claim since there's no votes on me, but the &#@$%# Klingon did say he was waiting on claims. I figure, hey, it's LYLO, may as well put all cards on the %&#@$% table. Shame I haven't got any &#@$%# useful ones.
