Super Mafia Bros Brawl - Game Topic (GAME OVER)

[Strago]

I can indeed confirm Ciato's placement of the sticky bomb on my person, and that it fizzled when Day 2 ended so quickly. I actually did place it back on her, but it was accidental. I was told by Alex that there was some way to pass it around, but not how to do so; turns out it was by quoting somebody's post. That being said... I don't see how that does anything to clear her or not clear her. Okay, so Ciato's an Inventor. In a game where scum have had a Governor and a freaking Dayvig, so what?

El-Cid and Strago both say they are millers. I think one of them is lying. I think it's Strago, and there are a few reasons. His Day 1 analysis of Bardiche seemed to be trying to put an weird behavioral spin in him to try to make him look worse. Most of the other things he did were vaguely blurrish so fastforwarding to Day 3 I am suspicious of his eagerness to push things immediatelly without the consideration of a second possibility. I just suspect a tint of bad intentions in his posts with the phrasing and accusatory slants that he seems to put in everything.

You call me out for "trying to put a weird behavioral spin" on Bardiche and then... do the exact same thing to me in the next sentence. Pot kettle black etc., except for that in my case I was doing this "weird behavioral spinning" on Day 1. This is Day 3. I guess if you want to point out some instances of my accusatory tone, I can speak more specifically to it. Moreover, given the thematic doublings we've seen in roles, I don't think there's any reason that either El Cid or I need be lying. Hence my trust of him since he revealed his Millerness.

That being said...  it feels more like a defense of myself than a damning indictment of Ciato. At the moment I feel like she certainly could be scum, but I'm not sure of it. Here, on the other hand, is the big thing that struck me this morning.

I don't trust Bardiche.

It doesn't make sense to me that a Cop would start out with foreknowledge of the game and role setup like that. It just doesn't click for me, especially when the knowledge is so... useless. So you know that there's one more scum player than the regular scum players, the number of which you have no way of knowing until the game is over. Uh. Okay. The only person I can understand knowing that there's a scum Traitor (I believe that's the nomenclature for this type of role, as per the Mafia wiki) is possibly scum members as a whole, but more likely just the Traitor himself.

Everything about it just makes sense to me, somehow. A Traitor with Cop-powers scans perfectly: it's your best way of knowing whose side your on. The fact that Bard is trying to sell Tom as the erstwhile traitor also works; there's nothing to say he isn't -- except for the fact that his flip told us he was a Scum Roleblocker Governor, of course, with no indication of wonky semi-third-party status -- and that gives Bardiche some deflection against being called out himself. Well, in theory.

Not to mention, of course, that it makes my earlier quibble with Bard's grammar make a lot of sense. Sure, he explains it by saying that he was trying to trick the Scum into believing he was on there side, but here's my problem with that: it assumes that in the setup of the game, both a Cop and the Scum team are aware of this Traitor figure's presence. In wacky-ass role madness like this I have a tough time believing that the Traitor dude would have that bonus. Scum knowing that he exists would definitely be a boon to him, and a Cop knowing he exists is a wash for reasons I mentioned.

This feels right.

##VOTE: Bardiche

[Bardiche]

I have trouble following your logic, Strago.

You quote Ciato, calling you out for not considering second possibilities. You proceed to say you have a strong feeling of her possibly being scum, but decide to follow her advise and conjecture that I am "selling out Mafia buddies", citing my role as being the method of detecting them.

Except that the traitor role is fully aware of the names of the main scum faction and has no need for a cop role to determine whether or not the players are scum or town: They already know.

I mentioned earlier I conjectured Tom could be the one; But I'm not sure on it. There could've been a miscellaneous happening that led up to Tom's demise. I don't know.

What I do know is that your logic is hard to follow. Your entire attack on me seems based on guesswork and assumptions of the game mechanics, with entire disregard for actually pinning a suspicion on me based on what I say and do.

In a situation where someone claims the cop role and points a FoS at two who he investigated as scum, you deem the best idea is to lynch the Cop and ignore the possibility of truth to his words? You find it more worthwhile to risk losing your only cop than lynch either an Inventor or Bus Driver?

Seriously, Strago. Your logic, I cannot follow it.

[Bardiche]

- only. There might be multiple cops given the doublure of other roles. Didn't think of it at that moment.

But seriously Strago. Explain to me how you are more willing to risk lynching a town Cop than you are to risk lynching a town Bus Driver (who could just as well work against Town unless he knows who Mafia are and who they will target) or an Inventor (who tried killing you even, apparently).

[Taishyr]

Mrf. Okay, that's something to chew over. Thank you for confirmation of the sticky bomb, at least, Strago.

Thoughts running through my head right now follow this sort of table:

Bardiche T, Carthrat T, Ciato T: We have a cop of dubious sanity, and no good real way to test this without the death of one of the three.
Bardiche T, (Carthrat T, Ciato F or Carthrat F, Ciato T): This is chaos range. Framer/sneakMiller/tons of stuff could be causing this situation.
Bardiche T, Carthrat F, Ciato F: Cop nailed two scum (and spotted the ringleaderperson Cap'n K.)
Bardiche F, Carthrat T, Ciato T: Scum attempting to get one of the two killed. This does not seem beneficial, since there has been a showing from a unknown-aligned nightkiller. Such a trade is... minimal benefit, from what I can see.
Bardiche F, (Carthrat T. Ciato F or Carthrat F, Ciato T): I have no clue on this situation. I don't think it would occur, not without mass confusion?
Bardiche F, Carthrat F, Ciato F: Scum something-or-other defection role/attempting to pull a "reveal two, get the third practically confirmed" situation. Former variant is something Strago seems to be proposing.


My general response? I'm keeping my vote on Carthrat; we haven't seen anything at all that could account for that night 1 kill. There might be, but I would hope someone would come out and say at the least they got a message of a failed nightkill. Since we saw no news of that, I'm sticking with my earlier conclusion; Carthrat was blocked that night, and was supposed to be out killing. Admittedly if you presume Bardiche is not being truthful, the other branch of my attack is lacking, but... I can see no good reasoning around this.

Regarding Bardiche's honestly... waugh. I'm not sure on it and I'm getting tired. Strago has a good point; if this is some massive gambit we're in trouble, but... looking at the list again, specifically the Fs...

B F, Rat T, C T: Bardiche gets Rat or Ciato lynched. Mafia kills the other, unknown ?. Presumably offs Bardiche unless it's scum aligned. If this is the case, kills another townie, 3 t/3 s (B, 2 scum/3 town).

Ignoring 2 F/1 T situations because they make me cry.

B F, Rat F, C F: Bardiche gets Rat or Ciato lynched. Mafia kills either Bardiche if he's ITP or someone else if he's Scumvariant. ITP kills the other of Rat/Ciato, assuming it isn't scum due to EvilTom's death. Down to six again, but with two scum down and one town down.

As a result? I have no clue, and Bardiche is someone I'm not comfortable on either way with this analysis. Going to sleep on it, I will be gone for a long while as a result as I also have class. I will try to make a semi-long post before I go to class but I'm not capable of ensuring this, so as a result don't be surprised if I bloody well disappear for a while again. I request caution on lynches, as usual, and right now I still consider Carthrat and Ciato more suspicious than Bardiche, Carthrat obviously being at the top of my list.

[Sierra]

A couple brief points first:

-Carthrat and Ciato's night actions may support each other, but this in itself says nothing about the alignment of either one. Do I need to repeat myself in regards to power roles being an unreliable indicator of alignment in this game? They could be on opposite sides and still be agreeing just because the events they described factually are what happened on night zero. It says nothing about whether they're town or scum by itself. Ditto for Strago confirming the sticky bomb. These actions are informative with a cardflip in hand, but in a vacuum, speculating on them is sophistry.

-Bard's claim about having info on the mafia's composition from his role PM is...weird. I'm not inclined to to disregard it as being just too bizarre to be believable, because I don't think anything is too bizarre for this game. Dwelling on it too much now will muddy the waters (it's doing this already, actually--see Strago's recent post), but it is something to consider if Bard's copclaim and investigation results prove truthful.

-Ciato says she believes Bard's claim but impugns his sanity. It's not clear on what basis she decided this outside of the assertion that she's a townie (which never means anything), but it doesn't really do anything to help her.

-One player still doesn't have a vote down for today. Nitori! What's up?

---

Going with one of Bard's investigation targets for today's lynch remains our best option, for several reasons:

1) No one's counterclaimed Bard in regards to being a cop, and with half the game dead I think this would be the time for one to come out if there was someone that could refute him.

2) Ciato and Carthrat both had some odd behavior over the last couple days which makes them suspicious anyway. I'm much more sold on Rat being scum, as I've said, but the points recently brought up against Ciato are valid. She also calls Andy's recent post "the second scummiest in the game" without sparing even a word to specify why. What are we supposed to do with this?

3) Even if we're wrong in our lynch target today, the result will be greatly informative in regards to the player we didn't lynch as well as Bard himself. As will the issue of whether he survives the night, of course, hence why I consider it a waste of our lynch to use it on him today.

4) We've already killed two scum, so I sincerely doubt we're in LYLO (unless you're convinced that there are two mafia syndicates; I see no compelling reason to be). We have time to do this.

With all that in mind, I strongly support lynching one of Bard's investigation targets. I would much prefer to lynch Carthrat, but Excal's analysis of Ciato is solid and I would support lynching her to test Bard's claim. Therefore:

##Unvote: Carthrat
##Vote: Ciato

Requesting votecount, Mr. Mod.

[Sierra]

Strago, I'm not sure I'm following you here. You're suggesting that Bard himself is this random lone scum player he claims to know about, correct? This is really counterintuitive to me, because I can't see any benefit in him speculating about it if it really is him. I've read your post a couple times now, and most of it is supposition and guesswork, just as Bard says. I'd be a lot more comfortable if you had more to hold against him than one example of what could've been just a grammar slip-up on day one. There's way too much metagaming in there and I think I've established by now why this is an unreliable foundation for a case. As it stands, there are things about his conduct that have made me suspicious (as I've noted), but not nearly enough to overlook a cop claim fingering someone else who set off red flags.

[Nitori]

What's up, is that I went to sleep. Sleeping while playing in mafia is so hard~

So, we get Ciatoclaim. Well, that does explain the flower...but that obviously isn't necessarily a town role, and it seems to really fit well together with the claim the Rat just made (who is the other person implicated). And it does seem like Andy has a point about stalling on Day 2. As for Strago's analysis of the Bardiche,  I still do agree that I find his claim of former game knowledge questionable...but not questionable enough by itself to make me doubt that cop claim.

Bardiche...at this point, there is no real reliable way to determine his sanity. However, I am inclined to believe that a Godfather role would give the opposite result like normal townies and scum too. Bardiche, despite seeming a little overeager to defend this, does raise a point that I agree with. The important thing here is to clear up and test what, if any, cop powers Bardiche has, and I think you are a better candidate for this than Rat, as I find you to be more questionable in your dealings.

##VOTE: Ciato

[Strago]

Uh. I was about to make a real post, but now I'm not sure if the day just ended. Did you intend for that to be a smashvote, Nitori? If so I obviously don't want to post after hammer.

[Nitori]

I didn't intend for a smashvote here, no. I think Ciato is actually at that range but I'd have to see a votecount to be certain, and I don't want to smash without announcing it beforehand, especially before you make a post.

[Laggy]

It is now Day 3.  With 9 alive, each vote is worth 25%.

The stage for Day 3 is Hyrule Temple!  While fun, it's hard to actually KO people here.  Under otherwise normal circumstances, a Smashvote will not KO anyone on Temple unless they are at or above 125% first, instead of 100%.

Carthrat (Ike): 25% - El Cid, Taishyr
Taishyr (Kirby): 1% - No one
Ciato (Dedede): 150% - Bardiche, Carthrat, Strago, Andrew, Excal, El Cid, Nitori
Strago (Wolf): 25% - Ciato
Bardiche (Jigglypuff): 25% - Strago

Ciato is well past potential KO territory and any smashvote will KO her and end the day.

Apologies for lateness of votecount, Rantails are sleeping and Laggies just woke up.

[Bardiche]

##UNVOTE: Ciato

Will gladly smashvote Ciato to proof I'm not lying (or I'm unlucky and she's really townie, as she claims - I sincerely doubt it) but since Strago wanted to have a say, I'll wait for him to speak up first.

Then once everyone has read it and said about it what they want to, I'll smash Ciato out.

[Strago]

Fair enough.

Bard, my suspicions were based on what you said and did. Sure, I was working within the framework of a certain set of assumptions about how this game is working, but it's not like I said "Jigglypuff can't be a cop! He's too pink!" And as far as the benefits of a traitor coming out and Cop claiming, I can think of a couple. At the very least it would give you a day or two wherein you're misleading town into lynching itself, potentially under the guise of figuring out your sanity. You could even be throwing one scummate under the bus in order to nail another townie; there's enough doubt about Framers that you could pull that off. And at this point, with the number of scum NK-targets thinning out, you might have stepped up to the Cop-plate in hopes that the scum would recognize you as traitor and leave you alone.

Concerning the Traitor usually knowing the full scum roster, I wasn't aware of that standard. I've never actually played in a game where we have a role like that one. Then again, nor is that standard any more valid a defense than folks seem to think my suspicions were in the first place, since it's based on setup speculation.

All that being said, it's honestly not a line of argument I feel like fighting for with nearly everyone else being so dubious of it. It was something that came to me and that I definitely wanted aired before the day ended. Now that it's been pretty roundly shot down, however, I don't have much else to say regarding it. I'll support the Ciato smash. Anyone have anything else to say before I or Bard or Nitori knock her out?

[Luther Lansfeld]

-Ciato says she believes Bard's claim but impugns his sanity. It's not clear on what basis she decided this outside of the assertion that she's a townie (which never means anything), but it doesn't really do anything to help her.

Um, -I- know what the situation is, so I was laying it out. Honestly what case can I possibly make other than the obvious one? uh i'm not scum guys dur dur dur. I know what is sanity is. And when I'm dead and if you guys have ANY sense you might actually go back and read what I posted.  Not everything I am going to do is solely to try to save my ass. See, that's what scum and selfish people do. I have a lot of votes on me and I am not convinced that much that I say is going to change that, so making sure that my thoughts are known on matters that can only be confirmed when I die or Rat dies or whatever happens. Because when I die I know my flip is going to make Bardiche look really bad, and making it known that I think he isn't bad (although he could be).

The thing is, Ciato, it's one thing to say 'no rat, there is no framer and you are dumb', and I can probably get over that by itself without thinking differently of you.

But if you don't believe there is a framer, then you need to call Bardiche a liar, me scum, or me *and* you stealth millers, and.. you.. think you're not a miller, you've said, as well as trusting me and Bardiche.

Basically, you've excluded *any possible case* that could give credence to your towniness.

<->

Strago needs to confirm/deny this stickybomb business before the day is out regardless. I don't want to see a smash before he does.

argh did we not go over this. godfathers flip as town to all cops from what I understand. plz insert brain when reading mafia

Why would Ciato first confirm Carthrat's role by saying it'd explain why her flower landed on the same person, yet a few posts later say Carth made a terrible defense and stressing Carthrat is a "confirmed townie" to her because my investigation pointed out the opposite?.

Because I know my own alignment! BECAUSE. I. KNOW. MY. OWN. ALIGNMENT. If you are town, I know I am town, so Rat, whom you investigated as scum and if you are insane, is also town! I do not understand how this is hard to grasp in the slightest.

Rat's point is terrible but a terrible point just means you need to dislodge your head from your ass, not that you are scum.

Anyway, I am at 150% please stop the foreplay and get to the fuckin- er uh stop being a bunch of pussies and just kill me if you think I'm scum. God. If you are going to fucking fail fail in a way that allows me to be less irritated in having to deal with this topic.

Please look at Andrew as a potential scummy.

Oh and I bet Fnorder was killed by a vig not scum cuz he was lurking hardcore and there's no reason for scum to kill him, which is why I think CK was lone scum.

[Ranmilia]

It is now Day 3.  With 9 alive, each vote is worth 25%.

The stage for Day 3 is Hyrule Temple!  While fun, it's hard to actually KO people here.  Under otherwise normal circumstances, a Smashvote will not KO anyone on Temple unless they are at or above 125% first, instead of 100%.

Carthrat (Ike): 25% - Taishyr, El Cid
Taishyr (Kirby): 1% - No one
Ciato (Dedede): 125% - Carthrat, Andrew, Excal, El Cid, Nitori, Strago, Bardiche
Strago (Wolf): 25% - Ciato
Bardiche (Jigglypuff): 25% - Strago

[Sierra]

Um, -I- know what the situation is, so I was laying it out. Honestly what case can I possibly make other than the obvious one? uh i'm not scum guys dur dur dur.

The trouble is, any player in your situation would say this regardless of their alignment. By itself, it doesn't mean anything. I'm sure you know this, but yeah.

And when I'm dead and if you guys have ANY sense you might actually go back and read what I posted.

Duly noted, and I will do so tomorrow if you really are town. I know Bard said he was going to do this, but it really looks like it needs to happen now:

##Unvote: Ciato
##Smashvote: Ciato

Hammer stop talking

[AndrewRogue]

I'm not really seeing anything in your posts that is going to dissuade me from thinking that you look like the worst candidate at the moment. At this point, you really seem to be just flailing.

For real, this time.

##Unvote: Ciato
##SMASHvote: Ciato

That is ACTUAL HAMMER. STOP TALKING.

[Ranmilia]

It is now Day 3.  With 9 alive, each vote is worth 25%.

The stage for Day 3 is Hyrule Temple!  While fun, it's hard to actually KO people here.  Under otherwise normal circumstances, a Smashvote will not KO anyone on Temple unless they are at or above 125% first, instead of 100%.

Carthrat (Ike): 25% - Taishyr, El Cid
Taishyr (Kirby): 1% - No one
Ciato (Dedede): 125% - Carthrat, Andrew, Excal, El Cid, Nitori, Strago, Bardiche, El Cid, Andrew
Strago (Wolf): 25% - Ciato
Bardiche (Jigglypuff): 25% - Strago

That is not hammer, the day is not over.  Person must be at 125, and then someone else has to Smashvote them.  In other words you need 6/9 to lynch.

[VySaika]

Actually that's not hammer. She needs a Smashvote in addition to the 125%, Andy AND Cid, you were making up part of that 125%.

The day is not over just yet.

Unless I'm wrong, then Alex needs to kick me.

EDIT because I'm not a player: Ninja'd by the Ran himself. 'swhat I get for Quick Reply, I suppose.

[Ranmilia]

Gate is correct.

[Luther Lansfeld]

I have a variety of rude responses for you my scum friend but I'm in a good mood so I'll just laugh.

[AndrewRogue]

Hah!

I shouldn't laugh, but making the exact same mistake is incredibly silly, especially since the voting system isn't that complex. I'm gonna blame morning posting and go kill myself out of shame.

Anyhow, since business is still going for the moment! Much as rude responses and cheer are fun, don't you think it'd be infinitely more constructive to try and do something to convince one of us that we really shouldn't be voting for you? For example, elaborating on why exactly I'm apparently scummy would be immensely more helpful than... just saying I am and letting it stand. As is, I see no way to interpret it right now except as flailing.

[Excal]

Ciato, as much as I hate to agree with Andy, I'm also curious as to your thoughts on why he is scum.  You seem to have some time to elaborate, so you might as well do so.  I am also curious as to whether or not recent events have caused your thoughts on Strago to shift.

PS: Yeah, that double "Hammer" was hilarious.

[Bardiche]

We're in consensus then...

It's time for Rest.

##Smashvote: Ciato

[Luther Lansfeld]

Why is Andrew scummy? He's just being a condescending, accusatory dick in the classic Andy way (although I seem to be the only person who seems to care). Because everyone wants to be led by the nose by roles instead of trying to follow what they think of people in situations and trying to think about things. Him pointing fingers in every place possible and just generally being a dick. That isn't emperical evidence so I know you guys won't listen anyway, so I feel like I am completely wasting my time.

As I mentioned, I have nothing to defend myself with. A cop said I was scum. Defense: Well guess what I'm not! Well that's a real convincing argument, thanks Ciato.

Why was I passive in my posts? Well gee, maybe that's because being forgiving and trying to give people a chance is a part of my personality! To want to defend someone like Eph and Captain K, who are both my friends and people I want to see play Mafia in the future AND WHO WON'T BECAUSE PEOPLE TREAT THEM LIKE RETARDS. What else can I say? "Sorry for being passive guys, I will try to delete one of my defining personality traits."?

However, I'm pretty pissed off now. You guys aren't thinking outside the box in the slightest. What has been posted in this topic is... nothing compared to my actual feelings. Just... I am trying really hard to be calm and failing pretty goddamn miserably at it.

Look, I don't want to die. I hate that scum has an advantage over us because we got stuck with a shitty cop (who could be paranoid actually, and not insane, keep that in mind (assuming godfather overrides paranoia)), but this shit happens. It's role madness Mafia, of course this shit happens. I have played in the best way I know how; trying to find different angles on different people, trying to be open-minded, and trying to propose ideas about the game which haven't be considered. And if my best isn't good enough, then what the hell am I supposed to do? I'm not going to claim miller and shitstorm about Rat because uh that would be lying, and I don't see what other way I'm supposed to defend myself.

I don't know anymore, Excal. I am so irritated I can't even think straight. Nitori is pinging my radar of mega-lurk now too but I don't really know. Strago did a couple of epic flips and he SEEMED sincere enough but I'm not sure. I don't agree with hypothesis off course.

*facepalm* I am not over 125% now Bariche...

[Ranmilia]

Actually yes you are, that is hammer, stop talking.