Okay. Beware, BIG POST COMING. An overall analysis of the game.
Day 1. Evil Tom is lynched. No shock, most people who were active (and most people here, for that matter) were on that train. Tells, unfortunately, very little.
Night 1. Scum kill OK and Andrew kill Delta. I'm 99% sure on this, as there's no reason scum would want to do town a favor and remove Delta after his Day 1 behavior plus Andy spoke rather harshly of Delta the following day when speaking of the ramifications of his demise.
Day 2. Meeple is lynched, after an initial Snow train got moved slowly over to a Meeple train. NEB threw the initial vote on Meeple, but I don't actually think he was crucial to getting people to switch to the train; Meeple more or less buried himself, in that case.
Night 2. Rat is blocked. Ashdla dies; I have issues seeing a second roleblocker so I don't think Andy was blocked. Either Andy and scum both targeted her or just Andy did, and given the air of suspicion/lack of presence Ashdla was kind of generating I... can see why he would. On hindsight, it makes more sense as a vig kill than a scum kill.
Day 3. Snow is lynched; the train is pretty much set in stone as people look at Bardiche, Strago, etc. others before moving back to Snow, and is pressed very hard by Corwin.
Night 3. Andy vigs Excal, and is himself killed by scum. -This- is pretty much 100%.
The more and more I think about it, NEB's analysis makes sense - whether you believe his claim as a tracker or not. First off, Andy's behavior, and incidentally his reasons detailed for gunning me, makes me really believe he wouldn't give up a night kill as vig if he could help it. We know Snow roleblocked Rat on Night 2 - that's pretty much cemented, since Rat was able to vote that day as well. Metagaming things even further, if you were on the scum team, who would you send out to do a nightkill, given the existence of roles LIKE Tracker? The dead weight guy with no vote. It's somewhat a minor point, but makes me think it's even more likely Snow just bloody lucked out with his block there. This also presumes Andrew, in fact, did target Ashdla during that night - and as I read back through Day 2 and his posts in particular,
As of right now, I am leaning towards a Rat/Corwin/mystery scumteam (scenario 3).
Things that bother me about Corwin:
- He has admitted, essentially, that he was gunning so hard for Snow because he did not want him to "escape his rightful lynching" from the past day and pretty much took his case as rock hard solid. He claims that on such a flip he would have implicated Rat (how convenient it did not) and gives him a nice opportunity to turn to NEB instead.
- He agrees that Meeple was probably trying his best to help contribute to town on his last post. Now, I look ridiculous for calling this point since I am guilty of the same thing, but two important things. First, it's Corwin. I find it incredibly hard to believe that he would give this much leniency to ANYONE with the one-track ferocity in which he went after Snow and the general fact that he's never even so much said anyone comes off as "pro-town" to him. Secondly, looking back at Meeple's actual last post, his proposed scum team includes Andy, Ashdla and NEB. We now know two of these were townies, and the last person is now someone who I am inclined to agree with and building a case on a potential scummate? (Speaking of which if Rat gets lynched and is scum I am all for seeing NEB as about as strongly town as you can get, for all that he'll probably be dead next morning anyhow if we get that far.) Oh, and he's gunning for NEB *right now*. Not that I think Meeple was genuinely trying to throw us off, but it's a very silly thing to base on (I realized this myself) and I found it completely out of character of him.
- He and Rat have had enough spark and argument and "I don't trust you fully" to put on enough of a show, yet if you actually look at their FoS and voting records they never conflict. This, of course, naturally synergizes with both of them preferring aggro playstyle no doubt, but something about their interaction makes me tick.
- His roleclaim is totally mundane. If you look at the list of roles that's been shown so far... Zombie. Messenger. Jester. Power Detector. Miller Survivor. Lie Detector. 50% Roleblocker (...). Illinois Nazi (I don't even know.) Town Lyncher AND Vig. To boot, my own half-arsed powers, Shale's seemingly useless one that seems to have hit the flavor anyway, and QR's pie throwing? And furthermore, he's using this as the reason as to why he was so over-the-top-in-your-face aggro that scum would try to NK him? Ehhhhhhhh. Metagaming this is, yes, notable, it still is.
Mysterious third person? At this point, I don't know, but I am less and less convinced that Bardiche is scum. I think the only reason he has not been NKed yet was because his play was questionable enough (and called upon, several times) up to this point that scum could finagle a mislynch on him - his power role is obvious, otherwise, but given we've had Bardiche stay his hand and the general caution people have viewed him (ITP is still possible), I just don't see it anymore.
This leaves Strago, QR, and Shale, and probably in that order of suspicion.
Shale has just chipped in basically saying the exact same theory NEB has offered, and seemingly independently at that. I don't think a scumbus this late and so close to winning is plausibly likely (especially this early on in the day) so that goes a ways to make me feel better about his alignment.
QR, ironically, suspects the other two in this group and NEB himself. The way she's come in at the end, just conveniently enough to organize and nudge us to move on to the end of the day (fair enough sentiment, but the fact that we've mislynched three times and all on cases that ended up not being scum is enough to raise eyebrows), but... at the same time, she's posted and had fair RL reason for the timing on all of these. HOWEVER, I also can't see why she would target Rat with her pie throwing in the night phase if they were scumbuds, esp. even more so when Rat specifically says it did nothing (could've seen it be used as a smokecover for Snow's roleblock, but no, it didn't end up that way). Seemingly minor point, but enough to sway me to not put her on top of the suspect list.
This leaves Strago as the guy that, although he HAS posted a lot more lately, still has giant gaps of not being present to make it difficult to read him, and apparently is claiming Vanilla Townie when literally up to this point we have not had a single vanilla flip yet (even some useless trinket ability would be something). Metagaming like mad, yes, but that still also makes me alarmed. His votes have also been pretty much all over the freaking place, and such a record (as I look it over) raises my hackles.
Speaking of roleclaims today: Mine is not provable, nor Corwin's. If you take both QR and Rat's word, hers is believable. Strago's is also not provable. Shale has the flavor to back his up unless he made it up on the spot, but given the nature of how it was written in, I'm not seeing it, so I'm inclined to believe him. This means that both Corwin and Strago have dubious roleclaims, to me. NEB's is also unprovable, but the targets are believable enough.
Whew. Yes, that's a lot. Reply at will, etc.
