Season 45, Week 2 - Star Sailor Choko epically faces the Dark Queen MetalliXorn!

[Meeplelard]

Godlike

Melfice (G2) vs Songi (LoL): I remember Chaos Flare doing 900~ damage, which doesn't account for Spirit kicking in, and I'm sticking by that.
Choko (AtLC) vs Xorn (G3): Ahahahah no.
Nate Nanjo (Pers) vs Sierra Mikain (S2): Nate is weak to darkness.  Fuck the P2 form since its Split Path only, and worse than his P1 form in like every other scenario, and I don't buy him being necessarily faster.
Cyril (SO2) vs Jade (BoF1): Cyril resists Lightning right? Oh look Jade's godlike durability and half decent physical considering the durability prove that he DOESN'T JUST NEED BOLTX.

Heavy

Arngrim (VPs) vs Cliff Fittir (SO3): Cliff has an easy 3HKO here...but Arngrim kills on turn 2 anyway, so doesn't really matter.
Ayla (CT) vs Kika (S4): Goes first and 2HKOs.
Garnet til Alexandros (FF9) vs Knight (FF1): Yeah, Garnet's just well suited for Knight.  She's faster, for starters (Disrespect FF9 speed if you will, it doesn't change the fact that she's above average speed against an average by default PC, so wins tiebreaks.)  With that, she either gets the 2HKO in first, OR she casts Protect, turns the responding 2HKO into a 3HKO, thus can play defensively with healing+Damage or status.
Bruiser Khang (ToD) vs Ike (FE9): Whoever goes first wins...and both have arguments for going first.  So...lets look at the fight in this way!

If Ike goes first, he wins; he gets his second turn first, thus wins the 2HKO war.  That much is obvious!
Now, if Bruiser goes first?
First off, if you see Ballistic as being countered, Ike wins.  Ike's getting 4 attacks to Bruiser's 1, and 4x Ike's damage *BEFORE* Aether is going to kill Bruiser. Not sure how reasonable it is to allow Ballistic to ignore counters, would need to see the move.  After all,  if its a simple case like "Move can hit things in its line of fire despite an obvious bias on target", then its...no different than any other ARPG attack, where all moves have some AoE aspect, and I'm not buying All ARPG attacks > FE Counters!  If the move is one of those "hits everything on screen!" attack meanwhile, then yeah fair game.
ASSUMING IT DOES IGNORE COUNTERS...
Ike has about a 24% chance to win still.  If Aether goes off, Bruiser...might very well be screwed, let alone if it goes off twice.  Chances are, it won't in one Ike attack, but it still might.

That's not factoring in Criticals either, though, unsure if Ike actually has a Crit rate endgame or not.  Thinking he does, and while its small, its still a chance to kick in.  As a reminder, if Ballistic can Crit? Ragnell gives Ike immunity to Critical Hits anyway, so non factor.

What's this mean?
If Ike goes first, he wins, plain and simple.
If Bruiser goes first, he USUALLY wins, but Ike can pull an upset through Aether or possibly a crit, which means he doesn't always win.

Given all this, I think the odds are in Ike's favor.  If you take one call against Bruiser (Ike going first or Bruiser's Ballistic gets countered), he loses.  If you're on the fence about it, Ike still has the average of wins.

Middle

Bartholomew Fatima (XG) vs Dekar (L2): Wild Smile does bad things to Dekar, I wanna say.
Mog (FF6) vs Jean (BoF2): Death again!
Jade Curtiss (TotA) vs Shoon (S5): Kneejerk.
Lufia (Lufia) vs Haschel (LoD): Haschel puts enough pressure on Lufia, and IIRC, his damage gets pretty sick if he gets low on HP.  Oh, he ALSO immunes her best damage, go figure.

Light

Ace (S3) vs Red Wizard (FF1): Healing should give him a win.
Ernest Raviede (SO2) vs Jun (VP1): This fight fails too much for me to think about, so I'll just say VP Fighter> Ernest for now?
Gengen (S2) vs Nina (BoF3): This fight really really fails!
Relm Arrowny (FF6) vs Taloon (DQ4): Sword Edge Armor hype gets countered by Gravity Rod 25% chance of Quartr hype, especially since Relm can use said Gravity Rod to heal from Taloon's damage.  Yes, his damage is that bad that Relm's healing strategy would actually work.

[RadLink5]

(Disrespect FF9 speed if you will, it doesn't change the fact that she's above average speed against an average by default PC, so wins tiebreaks.)

DoS Knight has higher than average speed.

[Dhyerwolf]

DoS Knight also is really weak to status.

[RadLink5]

According to the stat topic, the only statuses Garnet has over 50% accuracy with are Berserk and Blind. DoS Knight is arguably faster and 2HKOs. Garnet is not by any means a physical tank.

[Dhyerwolf]

Blind alone hurts him a lot. Killing half his hits on turn 2 means that his 2HKO dies if she equips for defense (She can get above avereage defense with Robe of Lords+Adaman Hat), and then Garnet gets to full heal. Blind never wears out, his damage no longer really puts any pressure on her, and she gets plenty of time for Mini to hit.

[muakaka]

Bruiser Khang (ToD) vs Ike (FE9)- Played the remake only. Defend until lvl2 Blast Calibur(it's fast this way, I'd peg about turn 3 or 4? ToDr defense reduces damage to about a quarter, but raises the limit bar like mad), smite with great overkill damage.

Why is Ike the one forced to attack here? If Bruiser defends Ike just sits and waits for it to go up. Good thing to do in a stalemate like that is force both to attack.

Cause Bruiser can use a super-cheap buff called Metal Body that makes him basically have Defend(called Penetrate in-game) on for 8 seconds. It DOES give him the status ailment Weak, which is basically he regenerates CC(think of VP style AP) at half speed.
He also has 2 skills that are NOT physical damage, though based off his physical attack. One's called Muscle Heat and the other's Crush Earth(according to my translation, anyways).
ToDr attacks NORMALLY have 2 elements if they're physical. Slash/Strike/Pierce and another element. These 2 above are Fire and Earth elemental ONLY. Not physical.

Granted, Muscle Heat's damage is pathetic, and Crush Earth can only be used once before he needs to recharge his CC after Metal Body.

[Laggy]

Melfice (G2) vs Songi (LoL): I remember Chaos Flare doing 900~ damage, which doesn't account for Spirit kicking in, and I'm sticking by that.

You probably had a rainbow jewel slapped on. It's dark elemental.

[ThePiggyman]

Blind alone hurts him a lot. Killing half his hits on turn 2 means that his 2HKO dies if she equips for defense (She can get above avereage defense with Robe of Lords+Adaman Hat), and then Garnet gets to full heal. Blind never wears out, his damage no longer really puts any pressure on her, and she gets plenty of time for Mini to hit.

Can't Knight take Blind off of himself? Knight does have SOME form of White Magic.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Using a spell half the cast can use, which certainly rates as illegal to me.

Though admittedly I had forgotten that spell. Granted, there's still the problem of Garnet potentially getting a doubleturn before Knight kills her, and more significantly, Atomos->Ark, which does 75% mHP followed by 9999 damage, i.e. kills Knight unless you see him tanking 40000 FF9 damage. You really shouldn't, since that makes his magic durability 2x average. No.

That's FF1o. DoS has a better argument due to speed, though he still needs Garnet to be frail enough to make his normally 3HKOing physical 2HKO. And for Mini not to be turn 1 against his now poorer MDef. And of course to allow Blindna.

[RadLink5]

Assuming you take the kill point as 2.5x the average, DoS Knight 2HKOs before taking Garnet's frailty into account. Though if you see Mini hitting turn 1 or if you don't allow him Blindna, then yeah, he still loses.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Er, no he doesn't.

1. Master 1380 (Physical)
2. Knight 958 (Physical)
3. Ninja 841 (Physical)
4. Red Wizard 780 (Physical)
5. Black Wizard 550 (Flare)
6. White Wizard 440 (Holy)
Average: 824 (kill point: 2060)

[RadLink5]

That's close enough to a 2HKO (2.15...HKO) that I just call it a 2HKO, whoops. Sorry.

But that's still before taking Garnet's frailty into account.

[VySaika]

He also has 2 skills that are NOT physical damage, though based off his physical attack. One's called Muscle Heat and the other's Crush Earth(according to my translation, anyways).
ToDr attacks NORMALLY have 2 elements if they're physical. Slash/Strike/Pierce and another element. These 2 above are Fire and Earth elemental ONLY. Not physical.

Granted, Muscle Heat's damage is pathetic, and Crush Earth can only be used once before he needs to recharge his CC after Metal Body.

Um...if it's running off of his Physical Attack, then it's a physical attack, regardless of elements. Or does it hit Mdef instead of Pdef in game?

[Talaysen]

Um...if it's running off of his Physical Attack, then it's a physical attack, regardless of elements. Or does it hit Mdef instead of Pdef in game?

This isn't always true.  EO2 has attacks based off of Physical Attack, hit Physical Defense, but are elemental damage (they don't get hit by physical resistance in-game).  I'm not sure that's the case here.  (Mana Khemia has skills of the same sort, just to show it's not just a one-game deal.  Atelier Iris 2 has attacks that are based on physical stats and ignore physical immunity as well.)

Regardless, I don't think it matters if it's physical or not, just if it hits PDEF or not, in this case.

[muakaka]

I.....have no idea.

Physical attacks in ToDr can be blocked by Defend and Penetrate, whereas magic can only be blocked by Penetrate(and Charge for PCs).
Judging by defense stats is pretty hard in ToDr, where defending and resistances play a much bigger role in survivability.
Normal enemies HARDLY ever defend, and bosses normally have Penetrate instead of defending.