Succinct Mafia - Game over

[Ranmilia]

I asked her because I was over 50% on her already and wanted to see what her answer would be.  From a townie I would have expected something like "Well, nothing, I guess" or "I would have hammered Cid."  I am of the belief that connections are most important once there has been a scum flip and indeed I wouldn't object to everyone else answering that same question.

I don't see how not hammering Cid helps Ciato's case here since in the Bard/Ciato scumteam theory we already have Bard steering clear of hammering Cid (while Ciato pressured him to vote, no less!).  Why would she hammer when the day was looking like a done deal anyhow and they'd have the opportunity to keep both scum off the D1 mislynch?  I mean it isn't like someone's going to do something crazy like unvote Cid and turn it around on Bard all of a sudden right?  Until that happened Cid was a sure thing, after that Cid wasn't hammerable.

[Sierra]

What do other people think of Soppy?

Pretty sure I've said my piece here. However, because I fully agree with your analysis, I'll second it:

Sopko: No, you don't really push Cid's case vocally, though I guess sticking to it like glue might count. You do toss a couple minor questions at others and eventually tear yourself off. All your play in the second half seems geared to try and roll with the punches and to only lynch Bard if it becomes necessary more than waiting for him to dig a hole.

That said, he's put in a better effort today and I feel Ciato's presently a stronger candidate.

[Kilgamayan]

(Links to posts are in the bullet points.)

Soppy summary, per Mokotan request:

- Agreeing with other people on Alex, meaningless musing on Bard, stating the obvious about me. Nothing that can really be called content.

- Attacks Cid for ignoring Rat's post and attacking an argument (mine)...that had been made several times? I can't tell if Soppy is referring to my argument against the group of people I singled out or Cid's argument against me, but neither was an argument that had been made several times before Soppy said what he said, so, uh, wat. As for ignoring Rat, Cid provides a time restriction excuse later, which is plausible and not indicative of scumminess, so it's not really worth trying to read. I would have waited more than a half hour to see if Cid was simply writing up a second post before accusing him of avoiding an attack.

- A whole bunch more nothing. Ironic given what Soppy is accusing Cid of. (It even takes a second post just to explain why Delta cleared himself, and a third to explain it.)

- Simple Alex clarification /r/. Nothing major.

- The "personal attack" reasoning is a useful one to keep a heretofore weak vote on because not many, if any, are going to question it unless there is next to zero foundation for it.

- Thoughts that are more personal than gameplay in nature.

- Random non-committal Alex poke. Why?

- Clarification for Cid. Meh.

- I can't even make heads nor tails of this one.

- Wavering about Cid, the only person Soppy's had a solid opinion on the entire game. Was there really no one else worth looking at?

More later when I have a word limit reset to work with.

[Ranmilia]

Oh hey there was a question in that Rat ninja.

Soppy is pretty high up there on the lurker scale.  I can follow his thought processes and he hasn't done anything actively alarming.  This puts him juuuuuuuust behind Rat and Ciato right now. 

I think Ciato and Rat's active wackiness outweighs him for right now.  Definitely a looker though.

[Kilgamayan]

Finishing up. <3 Foxy

- Asking Bard about other players despite not having provided an opinion on half the players himself.

- Opinion on Alex. Probably the best analysis Soppy had done to that point...and it was in backing off of someone he had minorly poked a couple of times.

- Well, at least he's honest about having a lot of neutral opinions. >_>

- Cid Unvote. I think this brings Soppy's net accusation total to roughly 0. Maybe 0.03 for his comments about Bard.

- Slowly moving toward Bard with the first real content-laden post that aims to take someone down. At this point, though, Bard's lynch was obviously imminent.

- Bard vote, sealing the deal. Curiously, this post seems devoid of an actual reason to vote for Bard - even just restating what he had said before about Bard would have been better than nothing.

I can see why there are bad feelings toward Sopko. If Ciato (or anyone else) gives me a good reason to unvote her I'll gladly move here.

[Laggy]

Ciato (3): Kilga, El Cid, Alex
El Cid (1): Ciato
Soppy (1): Rat
Kilga (0):
Rat (3): Dread Thomas, Soppy, Delta
Delta (0):
Alex (0):
Dread Thomas (0):

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in 20 hours.

[Carthrat]

Why would she hammer when the day was looking like a done deal anyhow and they'd have the opportunity to keep both scum off the D1 mislynch?

I thought about this for a long time, and I guess you've got a point.

I'm still reserved, though. I feel that the timing on her switch to Bard just doesn't fit with a scumbuddy of his, not when Cid was still within easy lynching distance and the case pressed on him was not a sure thing. I was really surprised when she didn't contest this herself, though.

I guess I'm more comfortable switching, although I would still prefer a Soppy lynch. I don't think he's handled himself particularly well today, either, and his play just fits in so neatly as Bard's buddy over day one. I'm staying here for the time being.

[Hunter Sopko]

(Links to posts are in the bullet points.)

Soppy summary, per Mokotan request:

- Agreeing with other people on Alex, meaningless musing on Bard, stating the obvious about me. Nothing that can really be called content.

Considering it's the second time I bring up Bard in this context, I don't particularly see why it's meaningless, especially when you're saying I had no opinion of Bard before the train on him got started.

- The "personal attack" reasoning is a useful one to keep a heretofore weak vote on because not many, if any, are going to question it unless there is next to zero foundation for it.

- Thoughts that are more personal than gameplay in nature.

Given the amount of support I got for this reasoning, I'm surprised you'd cast this in a negative light. Personal attacks do nothing to help town and are usually a scum delaying tactic. That Cid would resort to this before being more reasonable was pretty damning for him at the time.

- Random non-committal Alex poke. Why?

- Clarification for Cid. Meh.

- I can't even make heads nor tails of this one.

I don't particularly think that the clarification for Cid can be made light of, since it was one of the things that started to get him back on track in terms of the argument. As for the Alex thing, I play devil's advocate a lot, which is why I get in trouble in Mafia a lot. It's always good to question possible motives even if they're on your side. I already know that Alex personally feels targeted sometimes when playing due to his strong playstyle, but I wasn't going to let that stop me from questioning him.

[EvilTom]

According to my calculations, it's been about 20 hours since Ciato last posted. I'm going to go to bed soon, and if she hasn't posted when I wake up in the morning then I'm going to move my vote from Rat to Ciato.
Because at least Rat has been contributing. If Rat is scum, we'll catch him out (hopefully). LurkerCiato is a bigger problem. If Ciato his hoping to drop off the radar then that's scummy enough for me to shift my vote, because there's a few outstanding points against her which she needs to comment on. I know school etc. can get in the way (or sleep for you people on the other side of the world), but that's my plan.

Time's running out! Let's make it count.

[Kilgamayan]

- Second time you brought up Bard? That was only your second post period, and your first one was a joke vote for Ciato.

By "meaningless" I mean you took a "well, this could be good, but this could be not so good, but it's Day 1, so whatever" approach to presenting your opinion, which is not useful to the rest of us at all. If it's worth noticing, you should take an actual stance, and if it isn't you shouldn't bring it up.

Also I did give you some credit in my second post for your Bard stance, though it was admittedly rather small.

- The thing is, the "personal attack" gave you a great out for keeping a previously weak vote on the guy, exactly because people were going to agree with you simply because of the attitude Cid exuded. (Personally, I blame a combination of Suicide Squad and general Otter stigma for everyone sans Alex not being willing to take a harsh stance on anything, but I'm not here to play Freud.)

- The Cid clarification "meh" was more for that post not really leaning you one way or the other.

The Alex thing seemed needlessly distracting, especially since you didn't take a more solid stance and even tried to simply brush it off at the end. It came off as nothing more than seed-sewing.

---

All that and no explanation for the "argument that's been made multiple times" mistake?

[Hunter Sopko]

- Second time you brought up Bard? That was only your second post period, and your first one was a joke vote for Ciato

Blah. I combined two of the posts in my mind. The meaningless comment was in my head while I was looking at:

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=1900.msg31526#msg31526

The Alex thing came about because it became more and more apparant towards the end that Alex being scum was highly unlikely. I said as much. Don't know why you'd say that I just tried to brush it off when I went over in detail why I thought Alex couldn't be scum anymore. That was a big part of why I switched from Cid to Bard.

As a note, I wasn't in Suicide Squad mafia. And I'm not sure why you're saying that I'm not willing to take harsh stances on anything when personal attacks are usually the thing I come down hardest on. Ask Alex about Clue Mafia sometime.

On another note, I'm beginning to re-evaluate my vote on Rat. On first thought, it was way too suspicious to me that he would admit he figured he was targeted by Excal Night 0, and Excal ends up dead Night 1. This isn't exactly as bad as I was picturing in the first place, since even if he knew and was town, he wouldn't say anything anyway unless he thought Excal was scum.

Ciato on the other hand, re-reading her Day 1 posts into her vote, I have to say I have a better opinion of her reasons for voting... but basically it's out of a game of being here and doing very little she becomes extremely observant and drops the right vote at the right time? (IE a good time to avoid suspicion).

##Unvote: Rat

Enough for that, for now.

[Deltaflyer]

Ciato seems to be inactive... Lurking maybe? Hmmm... I am really considering switching my vote to ciato now. She did appear to be critizing Excal in day 1. Maybe trying to stir up some distrust. Also, ciato isnt contributing AT ALL. lurker-town is damaging us and it needs to end. Now.

##UNVOTE: CARTHRAT

##VOTE: CIATO

[Laggy]

Hammer!

Ciato (GODFATHER SCUM) was last seen drowning in a vat of ice cream (lynched)

Day 2 Final Votecount
Ciato (5): Kilga, El Cid, Alex, Delta, Anonymous
El Cid (1): Ciato
Soppy (1): Rat
Kilga (0):
Rat (1): Dread Thomas, Soppy, Delta
Delta (0):
Alex (0):
Dread Thomas (0):

With 8 alive, it took 5 to lynch.

Day 2 has ended! Send in Night 2 actions.

[Laggy]

A eerie silence descends...

No one dies over the night!

Day 3 has started! It ends on Sunday, 9/7, 12:00pm (noon) PST, barring autoextends.

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Good luck.

[Hunter Sopko]

Wow, pretty abrupt end there. Delta's either town or absolutely crazy, assuming the Anon vote was his. Given that it hadn't shown up at all until then, it could be anything.

Assuming there are indeed exactly two scum.

Sticks out. Is quick to point out in response to the previous post (Excal's) that there are two scum.

With there being three scum, I feel more confident in my Rat vote again, and also look in Kilga's direction.

With Rat, it's the suspicions of yesterday plus the vote result. Both he and Ciato were going after one specific person at the expense of one of the people who were most suspected. I'll grant him that one of them was him, but this is a lot like the kind of tactic he was accusing me of, stalling with the switch that would have put his scum buddy ahead.

Less focused on Kilga, but he seemed to be going after me awful hard if he was looking for a reason to unvote Ciato.

Based on this, I'm going with the first.

##Vote: Rat

[Deltaflyer]

How could the anon vote be mine when i had already voted?

[Kilgamayan]

...bwuh? @ proceedings

Sopko: I was "going after you hard" because you were there and responding and Ciato was, well, not.

About the scum count line, if I were a third scum, why on Earth would I bother bringing attention to Excal's metagame assumption rather than simply letting him sit there and assume there were two? He would have eventually found out the hard way on his own and no one would have any reason to attach my name directly to his mistaken assumption.

Also, you still haven't explained the "argument that had been made several times" deal from my first bullet point post about you. What did you mean?

Delta: Anonyvotes normally stem from someone after they've already voted. There are exceptions, of course, but it happens more often than not.

[Deltaflyer]

But why do anonyvotes occur? Whats the point?

[Deltaflyer]

The games just by ruined by laggy slipping a vote in! I really dont get this

[Ranmilia]

##Vote: Laggy

[Kilgamayan]

Aha! Delta has broken this case wide open!

##Vote: Laggy

[Ranmilia]

And now that that has been dispensed with (it is a joke by the way)

RAT

Roleclaim or die.

EVERYONE ELSE

Consider mass claim at this point?  More than two scum and a no death night is not something I can account for without more information.

[Laggy]

Excaliburned (1:10:36 PM): You big meanie you!  Your Mod Vote just RUINED the game!  ^_^

El Cid (0):
Soppy (0):
Kilga (0):
Rat (1): Soppy
Delta (0):
Alex (0):
Dread Thomas (0):
Laggy (2): Haters

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch, unless it is Laggy, in which case you must eat cheese.

[Kilgamayan]

(it is a joke by the way)

NICE DAMAGE CONTROL YOU DIRTY SCUM

I'm down with a mass claim, since I need all the help I can get >_> (plus I'm damn curious as to how what went down went down). My only reservation is if it's really necessary with this many people left, because I can't imagine LYLO is coming up very soon, but it's questionable whether the scum could do anything immensely useful with our info at this point anyway.

[Ranmilia]

Well
I'm done, I found scum, I'm 2 for 2 (4/5 counting last game I think?  Logical aggro play, it works).  Game should be over, we win, time to go home.

Okay.  As far as my reasoning goes right now, we have
- 1 scum left
- Anonyvote
- Something that caused there to be no deaths last night

With the scum already having a roleblocker and godfather I can't see them having much if anything else.  Claims may clear 2-3 townies.

##Vote: Tom
for the moment since he's the only one I can really see as part of a team with Bard and Ciato. 

Rat needs to claim or die though.