Right, I figured that probably wouldn't make a difference, but hey. I now present all of my cards to the table.
Night 1: Scanned Andrew - returns town
Night 2: Scanned Roflknife - returns town
Night 3: Scanned Tom - returns town
Night 4: Scanned Andrew - returns scum
First night I simply went with someone who I thought would be in the game for a while and would be likely to cause a lot of trouble if he was scum. Second night I wanted to test my sanity, so scanned the person I felt was most likely to get lynched next, and I was right (sorry Roflknife, but for what it's worth when given the choice of lynching you or Tom I decided that solely on being less suspicious of Tom). I actually thought that the day was going to end prematurely with the zooyork lynch and put in a night action early to scan Delta (just before going to sleep - didn't want to be the cause of the night phase dragging), but managed to deal with that in the day instead. Third night I got paranoid about saving Tom and immediately felt that I might have saved scum (and this was the night after Disland was modkilled, so I knew that my only way of finding scum at night was to find the one mafioso who wasn't the godfather) and went with him.
Having lynched Kaze and having lost two non-godfathers my scans basically reset as I knew I was looking for the godfather, and so neither Andrew nor Tom were clean by my slate (I was hoping to get the godfather lynched so that my previous town scans would hold weight). At this point I was most suspicious of Andrew's actions of sinking progressively further into the background, but I was worried that if he wasn't scum then there was a decent chance of him geting NKed, which would mean that my one good innocent scan would also be dead, but I sucked it down, played the odds that he'd survive anyway and it worked out perfectly. For what it's worth, my other two options were Tom and Remo, as I was basically convinced that everyone else was town (yes, Nilie was a nearly entirely blind jump of faith). schnwtfhisname was a bit of a dark horse for final scum, but I played down that in my head.
I was fairly confident that I was sane and not naive, but that's not an issue any more.
Now, let's make the logic as plain as possible. This covers ground I've already been over, but let's have the whole process in one easy place to understand.
1) There is at least one scum left or the game would be over.
2) In day 4 there were no more than three scum left because the game would be over. There was not three scum left because we would have been in LYLO.
3) By 1) and 2) we conclude that there is exactly one scum left. (actually, this does not account for the possibility of third parties, but please let me go without having to explain that in full detail because it would just clearly be silly given the public information we have (kills and flips))
4) It is sensible to assume that the scum had a godfather (see my post yesterday on the matter).
5) No godfathers have flipped.
6) By 3), 4) and 5) we conclude that the one remaining scum is the godfather.
7) Godfathers scan as town to cops unless they make the NK, which they basically never do unless they're alone
8) Andrew mysteriously changed alignments from town to scum after Team Scum are reduced to one member.
9) There is absolutely no other reason for this to happen to someone when there are no other scum about to mess with things.
10) By 6), 7), 8) and 9) we conclude that Andrew is a godfather and the one remaining scum.
Really, there is no conceivable circumstance under which one can scan as town and later as scum (without crazy roles to screw with things, which would almost necessarily be scum). Anything in this situation would be sufficiently stupid that I'd blame modding if it turns out to be the case. Ordinarily he might have hoped to claim miller, but not with the first scan as well.
From the point of view of everyone else this has simplified to whether I'm telling the truth and Andrew is scum or if I'm lying and I'm scum.
So yes, I now have the fact that I lied in day 1 (where I claimed to be vanilla - it's not like I'm going to try and brush that under the carpet). This was under the panicked frenzy that was my start game where I was trying to get people to talk but didn't want to die in night 1 as a result. I suspect that most of you don't consider this as much of an issue, but I know I want to convince Tom over this, and if Andrew is going to try and make a case it'll base strongly around this.
On one count, I really damn well hope that my actions through the game have proved myself sufficiently. Tom - I've saved your life twice, the second of which was to hang scum. In addition to my actions, it would be suicide to cop claim at this point if I was the final scum because I'd almost certain to get counter-claimed by the actual cop and suddenly go from being least suspicious to most. Finally, we're not in LYLO, so even if you're worried of agreeing with me and Andrew flipping town then you have a mislynch in hand.
##VOTE: Andrew to win the game for town. I'll answer any questions or doubts you have to get people on this as quickly as possible, but I hope it's clear as day at this point. Don't think of 'ooh, don't want to put him to -[whatever] to hammer', just get on this when you're convinced, get him hanged and let's win.
(I want this to stack as quickly as possible, but the one thing that you might want to wait for is to see if anyone wants to counter-claim on cop. If it's anyone other than Andrew, though, I'm just going to conclude that there were two cops and the other one is naive/paranoid. I do seriously doubt that there's another cop lingering about, though)
