Anonyrandomafia: Game over (Scum win)

[Mr. Miyagi]

I merely comment on cases already made

You wrangled that out of context so terribly I cannot see how you can perceive this as pro-town. Seriously Excel, what? I was making a hypothesis there on how I would be better at staying under the radar, and you put that in as a quote on me.

I replied perfectly. Why is this scummy? You're just copy-pasting other people's arguments rather than coming up with your own.

My argument is that you avoided answering the question and left the answer to whether or not it was scummy up to the reader rather than answering it yourself. You avoided the need to answer his concerns by posing a question instead.

Ninja'd by her, which is convenient!

Yes, it's all part of my master plan. I hacked your computer so that I know exactly when to post so that I can ninja you 

I meant it was convenient that you just gave something else that raised my hackles.

Aside from the things I just replied to, the rest of Miyagi's "arguments" are just a report on the things I did.
Reporter-style posting is useless.

I disagree. Repeating what others have done and carrying on those actions as being things that raise your hackles is a way of case-building and thus not useless: You just can't defend yourself against such things.

By saying, "Town wouldn't lie" and "Nobody would believe", you're automagically putting words in everyone's mouths instantly and forming a policy for them.

Er what? Are you saying that town should lie, and we should believe lieing town? What?

I'm saying that if Town explains their reason for lying and it is an acceptable reason there is no reason to disbelieve them more than normally. World isn't black and white.

She's proven quite capable of formulating cases and arguments as per her discussion against you.

Miyagi, just because I once voted for Khan doesn't mean he's going to ignore all the facts and revenge-vote me. And nobody thinks I'm insane (just as much as we think you're Japanese and know martial arts).

[/quote]

Mostly questioning Khan's assertion that you were a "bad player kept alive" as a possibility. I deny that as a possibility on the basis that you aren't a bad player.

Still don't get why she listed Crow as being my most logical partner but goes consistently after Ash instead.

[Excel]

Because you didn't read my post properly.
Crow looks towny to me. But if you flipped scum, I would look at Crow because he saved you on yesterday's block.
Until then, the order of scummitude goes you, then Ash.

My argument is that you avoided answering the question

I did answer the question. I've explained whyso.

If I don't hear from others soon, I'm going to have to place my vote. It's been an hour since I said I would, and haven't heard from Khan since then.

[Crow T. Robot]

Quick post to Excel. Only a very, very partial read, not an informed opinion. Didn't have time to read beyond briefly skimming, certainly not to go back the thread.

Feeling better on Miyagi, can't support it with actual facts if they exist in the time I currently have.

Feeling disappointed by Ash's recent posting and behavior.

Feeling troubled by The Dude placing a vote on Ash which I find unreasonable at this time. Could there be something into The Dude after all?

That all four townies are needed to overrule scum today is wrong. We need three townies to vote someone who is scum. Scum have two votes. We only need majority to lynch, hammer is unnecesary.

[The Dude]

Crow - like I said, I really don't know how much I'll be able to be around today. I wouldn't want to be unable to contribute to our lynch of scum by being outside doing things all day, you know? As far as voting Miyagi goes, Excel... yes, I want to lynch him too. I want to lynch both of them. But unless one scum busses another, my vote's going to be needed here, and there's a good chance I won't be back by deadline. What else ought I to do?

[Excel]

Well, should I join you on Ash & sleep? Or put mine on Miyagi? If we split votes, will that put our lynch in danger?

[Excel]

I mean, I'd rather vote Ash than endanger the lynch by voting Miyagi, despite Miyagi > Ash. Though as Ash has been lurking, it's more like Miyagi = Ash >.<

[The Dude]

If we split votes I'm not entirely sure what in entails. Potential scum shenanigans, potential extended sudden death. I personally don't like the idea of either, since I'd like to make this happen. I feel solid on my call and don't see a lot of reason to remove a vote made with conviction. Do you really think Ash is that townish?

[The Dude]

I have to go, and my vote stays where it is. Grarg. If there's really concern then I suggest that we put ourselves in sudden death until I'm able to get back to the game, probably a couple hours after deadline. Here's hoping this goes well.

[Crow T. Robot]

Arg hate go for Miyagi if you must vote now, leaving, etc, don't want two votes on Ash before Ash posts.

[Excel]

Do you really think Ash is that townish?

No. The lurking is killing his cred. But at the same time, I don't think Miyagi is townish. It's almost at the point for me where Ash = Miyagi.

I'm not sure what to do. If I vote Miyagi, we get split votes.

If I vote Ash, we might get scumhammered by Miyagi/whoever.

Arg hate go for Miyagi if you must vote now, leaving, etc, don't want two votes on Ash before Ash posts.

Yep.

I think split votes is the better situation. At least if there's sudden death between a town train and a scum train, I can log on tomorrow and move my vote then.

##Vote: Miyagi

See you all when  I wake up, when hopefully we haven't lost.

[Sierra]

Current voutecount:

Ash (1): The Dude
Mr. Miyagi (1): Excel

There are 8 hours remaining.

With six alive it takes four to lynch.

EDIT: I'm an idiot.

[Crow T. Robot]

Okay, I'm home. Haven't read the thread in full yet, but can at least comment in peace.

Some process of elimination to start with.

I judge it very unlikely that Excel is scum.
I judge it unlikely that Khan is scum. I think Khan has played exceptionally and deserves a MVP whichever side he might be, but his constant presence and not fearing to step out on a limb when it would simply be easier for scum to take another option speaks for itself. His taking us to sudden death day 1 is just one example of this; both targets were town, we know that now. Any explanation for scum-Khan's actions is horribly convoluted. Simple town confusion is believable, however, and far more likely.

So this leaves me with three people to consider. Luckily, two of them are scum. Sadly, the remainder is town, and our chances of missing are great (1/3 overall chance of victory with no new info if we hit scum today).

The Dude, Miyagi, Ash. Two of you must be scum if my reasoning is sound. I will gladly elaborate more on why I think Excel and Khan are town if asked to, but for now, I will focus on you and on what can go down today. (for what it's worth, I mulled over this before I even know who The Dude was, and it doesn't particularly affect my thoughts)

Ash's absence has been felt ever since late day 2, as I've mentioned before. He had been needlessly abrasive and hostile and kept on changing the subject whenever I asked him rather simple questions. When I did that with Miyagi and Khan, I got answers. They didn't satisfy me fully, with the former, and worked well enough with the latter, but my point is that regardless of whether the content ultimately convinced me of their guilt or innocence, the actual attitude is also important. Ash's seems designed to intimidate questioning by taking the fight over to the person asking the questions. The best defense is a good offense? Maybe, but in mafia, offense means having an actionable case on another, not OMGUS or almost-wild attacks. And he is absent now, well past the time we had seen him around during previous days. I see Ash as my prime suspect for scum #1.

Mr. Miyagi. To fully assess his case, I need to read in detail what had gone on in the recent posts I've only skimmed so far. I will get back to it, but let me place my thoughts on the table, first.

The Dude. I must admit I was surprised when I found him among the three finalists, as it were. But still, at a glance, his participation had been lesser recently, compared to how he started out. And let's look at today. He places an early vote on Ash, and states he may not be around. This seems to me setting the ground for plausible lurking, but a revote/rebuttal in case opportunity strikes. The best of both worlds, as it were. His reasoning for 'all of town' needing to combine their powers like Captain Planet or something is also deeply flawed. I already stated why in the brief post to Excel just as I was leaving for home.

Then he suggests placing us in sudden death if we want him to revote. I find that remark frightening. A townie placing us in sudden death today loses the game for us, simple as that. So would one suggest that as a remotely preferable solution?

[Crow T. Robot]

(using a logical stopping point to split this up for easier reading)

Okay, onwards to possible outcomes based on the above.

Since I don't consider Excel scum, Miyagi would not be able to hang without town voting for him. If Ash is town, I don't see how Miyagi could be, so I'm not worried over him casting his vote on Miyagi. If he isn't and is scum, then at worst, there could be two scum on Miyagi, achieving parity. Therefore, scum would be able to take us into sudden death, and Excel could unvote and lynch Ash.

If Ash shows up and does something to alleviate our concerns, then there is majority to get Miyagi lynched. If one of the three people I'm considering the scum pool is proven reasonably innocent to me, the other two must be scum by default and it doesn't matter which of them hangs first. If Ash fails to do this... we return to the first scenario.

On pairs. Would The Dude vote in Ash if they're scumbuddies? I suspect it's possible, given the way the mood had been going today, and Khan here "I can mostly see how today will go. There are already four voices against Mr. Ash." adequately reflects the sentiments of us today. Scum might want to cut their losses. Also, while going to fetch this quote, I saw this post again. I didn't like it then, and I'm not sure I like it now.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2205.msg38535#msg38535
The Dude, some time after the post Khan's above quote comes from:

Far as I can tell, we aren't too far from being in agreement on voting for either Ash or Miyagi.

I honestly don't know if we were in agreement about it at the time. I think most of the cases at that point had been Excel->me and Khan and Miyagi, me->Ash, Ash->me and Excel, Khan->Excel and Ash. I can't speak for everyone involved, and I might have misjudged the emphasis people were placing on their positions, but it certainly doesn't look to me on a reread up till the point of your post in question that Ash and Miyagi were the two candidates we were all locked on for today. That it ended up being that way later on is irrelevant. You were speaking about the present.

Any other two pairs would depend on Miyagi, and I've yet to go over his posts in the greater detail I wish. Also, it would be interesting to see whether he would agree with the way the lynch is headed at the moment, it being Ash, or if he would try to divert it elsewhere.

[Khan Noonian Singh]

Oh come on. Could the timing for a post rush be any more out of synch with me? I'm afraid that I won't have the time to parse that much until I'm back in the evening.

Khan - post please?

Sorry, I did say I was going, and I've had fairly predictable timing for posts.

In uber-short, given the complete lack of a defense offered in some time by Mr. Ash, I find it hard to believe that I won't be voting for him, unless Mr. Miyagi has horribly damned himself in some way in his posts. The only especially weird thing that leapt out at me immediately is how quickly he jumped off of Mr. Ash / "The Dude" and on to Mr. Ash / Miss Excel on failure to get anywhere with "The Dude" or such.

I know that sudden death would be absolutely unforgivably stupid, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be playing the day out for time. So long as we communicate and know who's intending to do what, then I say we should let it get close (but not very close) to the deadline before putting the plan into motion. In particular, it'll let me get the time I need to pitch in properly rather than just assume that Mr. Ash is still best, and in turn gives him less place to hide / more time to get on if there has been a genuine absence.

Who's actually going to be around when I get back, anyway? My one concern about leaving things that late is that last night there was no one else around for ages. Who else is going to have their vote solidified beyond all doubt (due to not being on again after)?

[Mr. Miyagi]

Well, doesn't look like I can interest anyone in an Excel lynch, but Crow offered to explain why Excel seemed very unlikely to be scum to him so please tell me why Excel is townie. You offered, after all.

[Crow T. Robot]

I intend to be around for two more hours. Three tops. So that's my own deadline for a vote on Ash, my target at this time. I'm also working on the promised, much-delayed Miyagi post.

Meantime, due to Miyagi's request, I'll now post something that may not be politically correct.

I believe I've pegged who Excel is with her second post, and that was even without the meta where times online factor in. Allow me to be perfectly frank. Excel, and I would be very surprised if there's another Excel in our midst, always plays like this. It always looks horribly scummy, whether Excel is scum or town. In fact, I can't recall Excel's actual alignment ever factoring much. A role might, but Excel has claimed vanilla, so I can't even fall back on that.

For anyone who has a problem with anonmafia relying on meta arguments... actually play differently if you want to be a true anon. I bet everyone knows who I am by this point, but I also hope it wasn't painfully apparent from the very start of the game.

And then, there's the actual content. Excel flails too much; I certainly hope any scum pair would instruct her to just not do it too much or would have thrown her under the bus already. I actually buy into Excel's logic wrt cop fakeclaims, and given Excel's character, I believe she would have preferred to go for the gambit. I've known Excel to lie with claims even when it wasn't the smartest thing to do, and everything I've seen of her in this game supports my assumption that it would have held true here as well.

And let's play the numbers game. 2 scum, 11 total. Excel's chances of drawing scum are far lower than drawing town, and even if her behavior makes her completely unpredictable, simple math tells me she's far more likely to be town.

To summarize, Excel had done a few moves that while questionable I find both honest and on town's side, and I like the probability of her being town. I could go on and on with examples of such moves to a second post, Mr Miyagi, if this one doesn't convey my thoughts on the topic sufficiently.

[Crow T. Robot]

Miyagi thoughts, may not be in order.

Opens the day with a vanilla claim, and a declaration that scum favorites for him are The Dude and Ash. So far, so good. I accept The Dude's point that it is weak to ask for thoughts on him rather than do it yourself, but I feel that Miyagi acquits himself with a post detailing his concerns re: The Dude. Of that charge, that is.

As an aside, I accept the point Miyagi presents on the Dude for day 1 for 'getting rid of' the queen. Then again, it is day 1.

Okay. So his post on The Dude being suspicious day 1 is for the most part decent, I find. But... where's the post-day 1 stuff, man? You say

Not understand why everyone think The Dude is town.

in your vanilla claim post, but you are seemingly answering your own question when you don't present a coherent day 2/3 follow-up post for The Dude's scummy behavior.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2205.msg38536#msg38536

I outlined what I could find on him that was more-or-less solid, and he has rebuked most of those. Fine, I get that, I will not chase that line of inquiry unless further opportunity arises to call question to him again.

This doesn't look good to me. The rest of that post focuses on Excel, aka easiest lynch ever. Get Excel riled up -> goad Excel into a bad move -> easy lynch, yes? It feels like you're retreating to a safer position rather than challenge The Dude's defense or find more proof of your Dude/Excel scumbuddies theory. This is an ongoing theme with you, of backing off when challenged seemingly regardless of how convincing the counter-argument is. I can't say what is or isn't convincing to Miyagi, of course, but I can judge what the rest of us, myself included, buy into and not. That is the basis for my statement here.

Also, this is LYLO, right? If you don't go on the offensive against those you see as questionable, then when? Your behavior feels passive all game, but at LYLO it comes off even worse.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2205.msg38541#msg38541
In this post, you look into Excel past day 1 antics. Again, I have to wonder why The Dude did not warrant the same treatment from you.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2205.msg38548#msg38548
Felt like addressing this, apologies as it doesn't quite feel in an analysis of Miyagi. I don't know about Khan, but I think Excel is a bad player because she utterly fails to pass as town to the naked eye.

What else? You keep on ignoring the (genuine, I must assume) requests of other players, even when they openly state that your behavior makes it difficult to both understand your true meaning and easy for you to hide any slips. I don't refer only to posting 'in character', but also to your refusal to comment on those you don't find suspicious. You even seem to understand why we would want to see this, but still don't do it beyond, perhaps, the most token of efforts. You also are a follower, as was evidenced with Yangus, where you made an argument against him that fit you even better. It is a scummy tactic, but the real offense isn't that it favors scum. It is in that such behavior hurts town regardless of your alignment.

You also have a surprisingly high ratio of posts regarding rules recently, I found. Your participation is rather low compared to The Dude, myself or Khan, and possibly others as well. I'm not in the mood to go hunting for postcounts. But while looking through an assortment of your last posts after already reading them in proper order and context through the thread itself, I found you jump on seemingly any excuse to talk about technicalities. I refer to both roleblocking done on the Queen and the rules necessitation LYLO announcements. It's not much, but it feels off for a man of few words.

And finally, what's up with the pattern of 'Miyagi want know (something several people do/something equally generic)'? Such queries are too open and are quite difficult to answer unless one assumes to speak for others and that brings with it other problems. It feels lazy, and that it diverts attention from yourself as you 'provide content'. That has the appearance of a scummy behavior.

(apologies for length, I tend to ramble while tired and sleepy, it seems)

[Crow T. Robot]

Ash's silence would be inexcusable for town on trial at LYLO. I will be voting for him within 15 minutes from now.

Did he clam up to avoid casting more doubt against his partner? Is it Miyagi, or merely what The Dude/Ash want us to think so that tomorrow we'll choose badly? I have to say that it looks worse for Mr. Miyagi. Ash/The Dude might have had a reasonable chance of turning things around on Miyagi. Hell, Ash could've tried that on his own even without The Dude's help, keeping the latter in the clear.

Well, I suppose we'll see soon enough. Khan, Excel, here's to hoping we're about to win this.

[Mr. Miyagi]

... Huh. Okay. Since I can't offer any arguments against metagame, I'm not going to bother to sell the Excel case to you. You needn't post any thought-up thoughts because even if I disagree with them, I do not think I can combat the metagame.

Your maths in that regard confuse me as you can say anyone has a 2/11 chance to draw scum and is thus unlikely to be scum, but someone has to be.

My behaviour is passive? I'm... sorry. I thought going after The Dude and Excel was pretty not-passive, but I must have been in error for thinking so.

At this point, I have nothing to cling on except my suspicion of Excel and, to lesser extent, Ash. I have nothing on any of the others.

I'll pop in in a few to see whether you folk favor lynching me or Ash.

If I sound a bit snarky, it may be because metagame arguments frustrate me.

[Crow T. Robot]

If it helps, Excel is the only place they ever apply for me, because nothing really makes sense without them. Metagame arguments frustrate you? Excel frustrates me. (But in a friendly way, I guess, it's not like there's hatred and rage here. And at least it's way better than dropping out and losing us a day, or being so very scummy like Yangus. There's a love for the game in Excel, I can feel!)

Someone has to be scum, yes. The probability of Excel being scum vs Excel being town is 2/11th to 9/11th, however.

Going after Excel, whom I called the easiest mark in the game, may not be passive but is hardly something encouraging for me. Your behavior outside that is passive. You went after the Dude? Well, yes. And see the section of my post which details how that went.

I don't know about us folk and all that, but I'm voting Ash for reasons already stated.

##Vote: Ash

Let's do this. Deadline's near, and I can't stay up much longer. Two more votes will either give us a fighting chance of seal the game.

[Sierra]

Current voutecount:

Ash (2): The Dude, Crow T. Robot
Mr. Miyagi (1): Excel

There are 2.75 hours remaining.

With six alive it takes four to lynch.

[Crow T. Robot]

I can't sleep.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2205.msg38414#msg38414

Ash's last post.

« Reply #267 on: October 26, 2008, 09:53:48 PM »

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2205.msg38604#msg38604

The votecount.

« Reply #320 on: October 27, 2008, 11:56:18 PM »

Didn't we talk about this, Cid? I specifically asked if you were going to let people get away with breaking the lurking rule at LYLO, and you promised not to.

[Ash]

Looooooooooow blow, Crow. School in summertime type stuff.

[Crow T. Robot]

I don't want to hear it from scum trying to cheat his way through the endgame. Extended lurking, and hey, he was here all along. Or are you just passing through?

[Crow T. Robot]

Any reservations I might've had pretty much evaporated when less than 12 minutes after my post pointing out Ash's rulebreaking to boost Team Scum's chances he turned out to have been here all along. Any chance someone town is around to give Ash the votes he so richly deserves so I could sleep? Tomorrow's like a 16 hour day for me so it would be muchly appreciated.