Season 47, Week 4: Brothers battle in a bloody brawl.

[James_xeno]

Royce (Lunar1) vs. Cloud of Darkness (FF3) - Cloud vs. Empyrea was actually extremely close, due to Empyrea being able to Zap / physical out the tentacles reasonably quickly.  I still voted Cloud due to the Particle Beams toward the end.  Royce, so far as I recall, doesn't have much (good?) MT, so she's not dispensing with the tentacles fast enough to keep Cloud's damage output under control.

Arch Flare is MT, hits everyone for good damage. She also has Cross Bridge, it's line.

[James_xeno]

Godlike

Kyogre (PKMN) vs. TimeLord (Saga)
Royce (Lunar1) vs. Cloud of Darkness (FF3)


Heavy

Riou (S2) vs. Crono (CT)
Georg Prime (Suikos) vs. Grahf (XG) - Too much HP/durability and damage. Not a big enough speed advantage to change things here for Georg.


Middle

Oscar (FE9) vs. Boyd (FE9)
Beowulf Kadmus (FFT) vs. Anastasia Romanov (SH2)


Light

Jet Enduro (WA3) vs. Soren (FE9)
Rude (FF7) vs. Miranda (G3)

[Clear Tranquil]

Oh yeah HP 1 Can Beowulf do anything about that?

[Ryogo]

Not much I can vote on. Like any time I vote @_@

Middle

Beowulf Kadmus (FFT) vs. Anastasia Romanov (SH2)

Light

Rude (FF7) vs. Miranda (G3)

[Taishyr]

CT: Assuming you don't see SH2 magic as unevadable, it's only got a 50% chance to land with Aegis Shield on.

[Dark Holy Elf]

The bigger issue is not just does Ana need to land that HP-1, but she needs to then proceed to dodge Beowulf's Sleep.

[Taishyr]

Isn't Sleep blocked by a SH blocker?

(I allow all three slots. So does CT.)

[OblivionKnight]

Sleep happens to be the one status SH lacks. 

[Taishyr]

Oh?

Then yeah, odds go against Ana there even more. Aegis Shield was enough to tilt it for me.

[VySaika]

Godlike

Kyogre (PKMN) vs. TimeLord (Saga) - Poor doom whale.
Royce (Lunar1) vs. Cloud of Darkness (FF3) - Seems simple enough.

Heavy

Riou (S2) vs. Crono (CT) - Easy.
Georg Prime (Suikos) vs. Grahf (XG) - Goes first and 2HKOs, I think.

Middle

Oscar (FE9) vs. Boyd (FE9) - Been mathed out already.
Beowulf Kadmus (FFT) vs. Anastasia Romanov (SH2) - Aegis Sheild + Sleep is too much.

Light

Jet Enduro (WA3) vs. Soren (FE9) - Ehhhh, yeah, an opening Gatling will kill Soren.
Rude (FF7) vs. Miranda (G3) - No idea, not thinking about it right now.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Oh yeah HP 1 Can Beowulf do anything about that?

He has parasitic healing that doesn't totally suck. Whoops.

[DjinnAndTonic]

Is the chance for HP-1 hitting really 50%? Because even with parasitic healing, I would think that HP-1 -> Poke would still win this match for Ana if it hits turn 1. That would give her an overall 50% chance to win... wouldn't it?

There's been a lot of mechanics arguing back and forth throughout the topic and I'm, admittedly, kind of lost now.

-Djinn

[Cmdr_King]

Both spells would face a 50% Mevade rate.  Both hitting in tandem like that is unlikely.  Mind, Drain's own hit rate is less than 100%, you might argue he misses one?  Still seems like a stretch by comparison.  Nevermind that a 1 HP Shock! is very painful.

[Talaysen]

Is the chance for HP-1 hitting really 50%? Because even with parasitic healing, I would think that HP-1 -> Poke would still win this match for Ana if it hits turn 1. That would give her an overall 50% chance to win... wouldn't it?

There's been a lot of mechanics arguing back and forth throughout the topic and I'm, admittedly, kind of lost now.

-Djinn

She also needs to dodge sleep, which means her chances are 0.5*x, where x is the chance she evades sleep... which is less than 1, meaning her overall chance is less than 50%.  Even a 1% sleep rate would be enough to tip it, and I think it's more like 60%.

50% chance of a 2-turn win is pretty bad if the opponent has any chance of shutting you out in between those turns.

[DjinnAndTonic]

But doesn't SH2 have a 'block all status' accessory or armor? Even though SH2 doesn't have Sleep, if Ana can block all SH2 status, then I'd allow her to block Sleep in the DL. I wanna say this came up during a discussion about Karin I had at some point?

[superaielman]

Not a legal one. Karin has a unique accessory for that, SH's all status blocker isn't storebought and there's not enough to go around. (Crusifix)

[Dark Holy Elf]

He has parasitic healing that doesn't totally suck. Whoops.

Actually it kinda does. 1/4 the target's HP... probably isn't saving him from a followup... whatever Ana's best damage is (Power Cannon?), since she's not Lucia. And it's only slightly more accurate than Sleep. Doesn't matter, Sleep owns. See Super/OK on why there is no statusblocker hype that is saving Ana from it.

[Rozalia]

Anastasia can just follow up the Hp-1 with power cannon as its physical and hits a hell of a lot. Me not having much respect for Beowulf's status doesn't help him either.

[Dhyerwolf]

Power Cannon is magical. That said, Ana's physical isn't completely horrid (Well, above the 25% of Ana's MHP Beowulf would be draining back), if you were inclined to not see any of Beowulf's relevant stuff as hitting on turn 1. Of course, I feel like in this case, Beowulf might just twink for HP and have a chance to OHKO her with Shock. He probably misses the OHKO to most averages, and might even to my slightly lower one.

[Nephrite]

Not that I necessarily am arguing this, but could Anastasia cast Barrier to raise her Special Defense relatively high above the average in order to try and stave off a status attack from Beowulf? Or would it not actually postpone the status long enough for her to do anything?

[Dark Holy Elf]

The MDef boost is pretty modest, so it seems unlikely it would delay it by two turns (if it's just a one turn delay, then nothing is accomplished). Someone with a better handle on the effectiveness of SH2 MDef should probably weigh in here, though.

[Excal]

Also, isn't there a point where she just starts to walk into the issue of simply being hacked to death?

[James_xeno]

Georg Prime (Suikos) vs. Grahf (XG)- Strong kneejerk.

Georg Prime (Suikos) vs. Grahf (XG): Grahf's apparently not that fast, so Georg goes first and 2HKOs.

Georg Prime (Suikos) vs. Grahf (XG) - Georg should be able to beat Grahf's speed. Grahf cries to 2HKO from Georg.

Georg Prime (Suikos) vs. Grahf (XG) - Goes first and 2HKOs, I think.

Does Georg really have enough damage to 2HKO Grahf?? I'm not sure if I could swallow Grahf going down in a 2HKO from anything less than OHKO or overkill damage.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Georg Prime (Suikos) vs. Grahf (XG)- Strong kneejerk.

Does Georg really have enough damage to 2HKO Grahf?? I'm not sure if I could swallow Grahf going down in a 2HKO from anything less than OHKO or overkill damage.

Boss respect generally varies. But Grahf's HP is... well, 6666 HP is certainly the highest of any XG boss on foot until that point, and quite possibly even the highest in the game, scaled. What that says, though, depends on who you ask.

Considering I view him as facing hyper DBs at that point rather uniformly, he weeps openly as he stands against a four-digit average damage and lingers at 0.6x PC HP off my scaling, which just gets Grahf pathetically OHKOed - but my boss scaling is one of the most cruel in the group, anyway. Elfboy sees him at the 1.5x PC HP mark, I think? Which would fall prey to Georg 2HKOing on average. Basically, a more forgiving view of boss HP could give Grahf a better fighting chance. YMMV on that, of course.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Grahf's not even that high to me. Just above average PC. Snow pretty much covered it though, it all comes down to how good you see Grahf's durability. If you give him support credit and don't factor in hyper DBs, then perhaps he could survive Georg, and that's just using my ballpark of boss HP respect. OK levels and suddenly it's easy.