Author Topic: My-Hime Mafia  (Read 60067 times)

EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #125 on: December 04, 2008, 04:12:17 AM »
Woot woot! We're doing well :D

response to Alex:
Top 3 people I think are town? El Cid is numero uno. By a large margin. I'd probably continue along the Sopko train and say Excal and Strago, based on their votes more than anything.
Top 3 scummy? Xanth Xanth and Xanth. There is no doubt in my mind. Other than him, I'd be picking on lurkers, but I have to review them first in detail.

I had a really big case in my head which I was getting ready to type out as I sat down, and then..  El Cid had done it for me. Seriously. It's exactly what I was going to say.

I had all of my suspicions of Xanth from before the Soppy train, but now there's real evidence - a scumbuddy tried to save him (and got burnt). Scum wouldn't go that far just to frame a towny whom they could otherwise mislynch easily.
##Vote: Xanth


Alex, since I answered your question, can I get your opinions? So far today you've only said "that's interesting". Input please.
Sorry if I missed anyone else's questions, in a rush right now.
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Ranmilia

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #126 on: December 04, 2008, 04:44:23 AM »
Okily dokilies.

Gentlemen, ladies, gentlemen pretending to be ladies and vice versa (although I think we already lynched that person)!  May I interest you in hanging Dread Thomas today!

##Vote: Dread Thomas

Exhibit A, and the main attraction:  Everything Xanth said about him yesterday is 100% true.  Hopped on what looked like it would be the big wagon of the day with little effort, never hopped off.
Exhibit B:  STILL going after Xanth today for even odder reasons!  "Oh yeah scum totally bussed their godfather to save Xanth."  What?  I don't think so.
Exhibit C:  Asked for top three scum, answers no one other than Xanth.  Top town?  Why of course, it's the guy whose suspicions he's tying himself to!

With Sopko flipping scum and now this, I am also fairly sure Xanth is town.  (metagaming and wall of text are still bad, yo, don't do them).  Why didn't I bring this case out immediately?  Wanted to get Tom's scum/town list before I went off on him.
----

Far as myself, I did say I was starting to look at Sopko, and when I woke up boom, case on him already was made.  I guess you can vote me for my sleeping schedule if you like, or say that it is somehow scummier for me to be on the Sopko vote at the end than, yknow, NOT be on it, but that strikes me as a pretty bad WIFOM argument and not something I can defend against anyhow. 

Almost surely scum: Dread Thomas
Possibly scum: The three people he named, Andrew, Kiro, Affinity?
Middle: People not mentioned
Probably town: Xanth, Kilga, Corwin?
Definitely town (and awesome): Me

Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #127 on: December 04, 2008, 05:02:30 AM »
Corwin wins the "I keep forgetting he's playing this game" award and thus is slightly suspicious by default. (This might be slightly biased, since other people might feel the same way about Kiro or Affinity, who I have no chance of forgetting are in this game given our MotK games together.)

I'm not a fan of Andrew's vote for Kiro because I fail to see what ScumKiro would have to gain from not voting Sopko at the end there.

Strago's overreaction to my comment about post length doesn't sit right with me, but it alone isn't worth a vote and I didn't see much of anything else from him that warranted suspicion.

The rules say scum must kill AND that players that are attacked but survived are told so. Do we want whoever was attacked last night to come forth or what? I can't imagine scum would risk contesting it based on the Sopko loss, but I am notorious for missing the elephant in the room in this sort of situation.

NINJA EDIT: Was going to vote Xanth in this post (best Day 1 case, implications of Sopko's unvote as noted by Cid) but Alex seems gung-ho on him being town so I'm going to review the Xanth case and the Tom case before picking a side.


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #128 on: December 04, 2008, 05:05:54 AM »
I should have been more specific. Alex can you please comment on the case on Xanth? You know, the massive one El Cid just put forward? The one I just spent my post talking about?

Quote
and when I woke up boom, case on him already was made.  I guess you can vote me for my sleeping schedule if you like,
That is also my excuse, except in reference to Xanth. El Cid said it before I could. Let's not play the hypocrisy game.

Though after that Alexsplosion, I'd be looking pretty hard at him after a XanthScumFlip, since Alex seems so convinced Xanth is town.


Kilga: interesting idea. I don't see why not, if we can narrow it down to either [town] or [scum faking it].. then we end up with a confirmed towny, or a chance at scum. It wasn't me anyway, I was cool.
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Ranmilia

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #129 on: December 04, 2008, 05:14:55 AM »
On Xanth?  Pretty simple.  He was the day 1 lynch before it swung to Soppy.  That alone makes him probably town, since even then I was debating between him and Tom.  I am now quite firmly on the "Tom is scum" side of that equation, which again makes Xanth... well, as good as confirmed to me, since I don't see Xanth/Tom/Soppy as a possible team.

On what Kilga said:  If you were attacked last night but survived due to something you know about (bulletproof, doc self protect, etc) I would advise against claiming.  If you were attacked last night but survived due to something you don't know about (presumably some other skilled/lucky doc out there) then I don't see a reason not to claim that.

Ranmilia

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #130 on: December 04, 2008, 05:16:58 AM »
Actually after a few seconds more thought (I am stupid) it should be claimed regardless, just don't mention how it happened if you know how.  Scum know who they targeted regardless, so I don't see it giving anything away to them.

Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #131 on: December 04, 2008, 05:21:37 AM »
just don't mention how it happened if you know how

That was the extra stipulation I was thinking of when I proposed the idea (don't know why I didn't put it in initially). I see no reason for whoever was attacked last night to let on whether they know why they were saved or not, but as long as that's avoided I don't see anything wrong with claiming NK target.

I was not attacked, however.


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Carthrat

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #132 on: December 04, 2008, 05:22:07 AM »
Day 2 votecount!

Affinity (1): Kiro
Kiro (1): AndrewRogue
Xanth (2): El Cideon, EvilTom
DreadThomas (1): Sir Alex

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. About 42 hours remaining.
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EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #133 on: December 04, 2008, 05:22:21 AM »
Alex, you still refuse to look at El Cid's argument. Seriously. Answer it please.
This isn't about Tom v Xanth, stop presenting it as such. To do so is to ignore the evidence against Xanth. There is no need ro polarize this.
Asking for the second time, 'Sopko backed away from the Xanth train twelve hours from the end of the day' - acknowledge El Cid's argument.

And what about whether or not you were hit, Alex? You seem pretty reluctant to give away information.
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Ranmilia

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #134 on: December 04, 2008, 05:38:20 AM »
I was not attacked, I figured that would be a given since I did not say I was?

I covered Xanth already.

Affinity

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #135 on: December 04, 2008, 05:40:49 AM »
@El-Cid:  The issue I find with your case is that most of the points are more reliant on what Soppy has been doing, and not Xanth.  For points three to five in your post, Xanth could have might as well been a paper doll that Sopko had just happened to choose, and nothing would have changed.  As to how, I'll leave Xanth to defend himself.

Points one and two are valid in my opinion, though, I'm interested to see what Xanth has to say.

@EvilTom:  Do you completely agree with what El had said?  If yes, which points do you think are more important and such?

Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #136 on: December 04, 2008, 05:58:46 AM »
Things I like (and want to see responses to):

- Cid underline point #1.
- Cid underline point #2. In addition, Xanth also mentioned Bard being ahead of Sopko on his list for "the aforementioned behavior" despite that Sopko post I (along with a couple of other) singled out being more guilty of Bard's style than Bard. This opinion was also put forth after Xanth admitted to me that he had been "overly harsh" on his assessment of Bard's posts.

Things I dislike:

-His stated reason for unvoting Xanth is obviously bunk because he's scum and lying is his job, so what does this leave us with? Scenario A) Sopko wanted to avoid being seen helping to kill a townie (if Xanth is town). I find this unlikely; Sopko had not invested a great deal of text in the case against Xanth (his vote on Xanth, way back on page one, had only a sentence to justify it; I believe it was just a placeholder vote that Soppy could use to make himself look active while waiting for a good train to hop on) and probably wouldn't have gained much townie cred from backing off.

- On the contrary, I would be more suspicious of someone on a mislynch train that invested almost no opinion than someone who invested a solid opinion. In a hypothetical Xanth mislynch scenario, Sopko would look worse for leaving his vote on for sketchy early-Day-1 reasons than for taking it off and directing it elsewhere.

Exhibit B:  STILL going after Xanth today for even odder reasons!  "Oh yeah scum totally bussed their godfather to save Xanth."  What?  I don't think so.

- Where on Earth does Tom say anything to this effect? I'm not seeing it at all.

Things I'm unsure on:

- Xanth's case against Tom. What I can pick out seems reasonable enough (mostly misrepresentation stuff), but between WoT overdrive and quote mess-ups I'm not having as easy a time following it as I would like. I don't want to make a decision based on a misunderstanding. Since Alex's Tom vote is largely predicated on this case, can Xanth/Alex kindly sum it up in a couple of paragraphs, preferably without forum syntax errors?

---

Right now I'm leaning Xanth over Tom, but with all the stuff I want answered I'm not placing a vote yet.

I'm also officially recanting my slight Corwin suspicion since he made the initial Sopko case. The "Forget they're playing" theory can't hold a candle to that.


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Ranmilia

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #137 on: December 04, 2008, 06:40:36 AM »
I had all of my suspicions of Xanth from before the Soppy train, but now there's real evidence - a scumbuddy tried to save him (and got burnt). Scum wouldn't go that far just to frame a towny whom they could otherwise mislynch easily.

Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #138 on: December 04, 2008, 06:44:46 AM »
And where, in that line, does Tom say that scum bussed Sopko?


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #139 on: December 04, 2008, 06:45:44 AM »
Ignoring the Xanth vote since his didn't matter.


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Ranmilia

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #140 on: December 04, 2008, 07:14:17 AM »
Where, uh, does it not?  I don't see what else he could be saying there, since Xanth was on Sopko pretty hard towards the end of the day and Sopko didn't propose a third case.

Excal

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #141 on: December 04, 2008, 07:24:09 AM »
Ok, I've skimmed everything over, and my gut reaction to things is that Xanth/Tom feels like a Town/Town spat coming out of a bad situation.

Xanth, I'm very definatly with the school that says that if he was scum, then Sopko's moves don't make sense.  In fact, Sopko's moves make the most sense when considered against a townie about to get mislynched.  He reiterated his support for the lynch, and approved of another person who did drop their support at the same time as he took his vote off in the name of wanting to hear all the voices.  However, this was not an attempt to save Xanth.  Not only was there no commentary about how he changed his mind which there would have been in a real attempt to save him and which would have been justified by his initial weak reason for voting paired with Xanth's vigourous defense.  But there was also no vote for anyone else, or attempt to start some other train.  Given that I also agree that Sopko/Xanth/Tom is a really unlikely combo, it sure as hell wasn't because he didn't want to have to pick and choose which scum buddy got the axe.

As for Tom, I don't have anything hard on him, just so far my read of him has been a positive one.  This will be undergoing continued evaluation as I read things further.

That said, I am going to be looking at Alex.  If Tom is right, and Alex is trying to re-frame the discussion so that we're faced with two bad choices, I think that would fit very well with his past methodology as scum.  Namely, make a good argument as to why someone he knows is town is town and use that to set a frame work at the same time as he builds up some good will towards his core premise.  In this case, that's made even easier by the fact that Xanth was vocally proclaiming his belief of Tom's scumminess, thereby making him a predictable accomplice in such a scenario.  As well, Tom is also a predictable participant in all of this, with his habit of being very vocal in the worst ways, as well as having a tendancy to fiercely attack those who attack him.  This should end in a nice little shouting war that will polarize us and draw attention.

One other person I will be looking at will be Andy.  Sopko's endorsement of him was a large part of his downfall on Day 1, and I want to see if there's anything there.  (On a side note, I'll have your answer for you shortly, Andy)

Finally, I was not targetted last night.  But I do wholly approve of this measure, and I suggest we all state clearly whether or not we were the target instead of simply letting our silence speak for us.  Clarity is the weapon of town, obfuscation that of the scum.  Letting assumption be your voice only helps hide things.

Excal

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #142 on: December 04, 2008, 07:27:54 AM »
Unfortunately, this game apparently decided to start while I was still at home, and get into full swing the day I was flying back home. A flight which was then delayed. And then the issues of getting home from the airport after midnight. And such.

So. There's the reasoning I've been quiet. Make of it what you will. I perfer to blame Carth, really.

In brief review of the topic, since I want to sleep.

-Somebody has to make the second vote eventually. Generally speaking, I find scum want to avoid doing it, since it tends to draw attention.
-Tom's statement is off-handed enough for me to take it as just that. (To be slightly fair for a second, his statement does have some merit. While I can't remember the record, Tom IS an easy target and is up there in Day 1 lynchees generally)
-Bardiche missing the point of the Kilga train is odd, since it was basically said in the votes. Votes to see what happens. For day 1 to really start, something needs to happen.
-Corwin's logic flies with me.
-Soppy's statement is interesting about Alex.
-Xanth's post... I'm inclined to agree with Alex, and add a spice of missing the measure of the Kilga vote.
-Oh sure, NOW there are some big posts.
-Argh. It is now just flowing over me. Can't get anymore out of this.

Non-Stream of Consciousness: Xanth is, currently, the only poster who stands out to me, primarily for the reasons Alex stated. His additional statements about the train on Kilga (how it was purposeless) also sit slightly at odds on me, as they tend to say something about people. For example, who're the ones who jump on, who're the ones that draw the line, how do they draw the line, etc. There is a lot of information to be had from those sorts of trains.

##Vote: Xanth

Primarily looking for a response to Alex, but I wouldn't mind some chatter on why you feel that a general lynchtrain doesn't work/isn't useful.

There you go, Andy.  That's what I twigged on for the metagaming.

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #143 on: December 04, 2008, 07:32:03 AM »
Sorry guys! Walls of text before me, I only quick skimmed and saw we nailed scum.

I'd post more, but all of tuesday and wednessday, after I came back from school, our ISP were "having a small technical problem", which apparently couldn't be fixed that quickly. I'm terribly sorry for the lurking and will catch up with all possible haste.

Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #144 on: December 04, 2008, 07:33:23 AM »
Where, uh, does it not?  I don't see what else he could be saying there, since Xanth was on Sopko pretty hard towards the end of the day and Sopko didn't propose a third case.

I think all he's saying there is what Cid said in the post before him.

I'd disagree with Xanth being hard on Sopko at a time of the day when it was relevant (especially since he still seems to have misgivings here, 8 minutes before deadline), and I feel that what Sopko did or did not do in the way of proposing cases is unimportant to the question of whether he was really bussed by fellow scum or not (since he could have attacked someone new and then been steamrolled like he was anyway).


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #145 on: December 04, 2008, 07:35:21 AM »
Bard and Affinity, were either of you attacked last night?


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

AndrewRogue

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #146 on: December 04, 2008, 07:41:15 AM »
I want to point this out, and make sure it is as clear as possible, since this is central to my current issue with the trio of Xanth, Alex and Kiro.

Simply put, with the way the events unfolded at the end of the day, there was absolutely no bussing involved.

Check this. Cath's vote count that says there is .5 hour or so remaining comes at 2:28.

The important votes stand at Xanth (Alex, Tom, Me) and Sopko (Cid, Excal, Strago, Corwin, Kilga).

Kiro posts at 2:56, points out the futility of Sopko's situation and says he's standing by. He is not heard from again.

Xanth responds to me 2:56. Says he is all for voting Sopko over himself (even if he isn't a preferred case), but opts not to put a vote down at that point. About 3 minutes later (2:59), Xanth puts down an incorrect vote for Sopko. No big deal.

3:02, Alex posts, points a bizarre finger at Kilga (missed him voting for Sopko, or misunderstood Kilga's admitted wishy-washy tone not two posts up) and claims willingness to hammer.

Keep in mind, here, that taken at exactly 48 hours, we are ~3 minutes off the deadline (day started at 3:05) and already past the baseline time in Carth's vote count. Basically, barring any miracle or hugely bizarre turn of events, the day is over and Sopko is getting lynched.

About 40 seconds later, he tosses down a vote on Sopko.

About 3 minutes later, Xanth posts once more, laying down the actual hammer vote.

What does all that amount to?

By the time Kiro, Alex and Xanth started acting, outside of some veritable miracle, the day was decided. If you look, between the three of them, the vote count could not be shifted away from Sopko. Xanth couldn't do anything but push Sopko further along , Alex was already voting Xanth and Kiro couldn't make up the two vote deficit that Xanth had. Unless one other person shifted a vote to Xanth at that point, then Sopko was getting lynched.

The only other people demonstratably around and paying attention? Myself (already voting for Xanth) and Kilga (voting for Soppy, but had just switched there in the very recent future and would require convincing).

So, what is the grand point of this breakdown? That it is reasonable to consider all three of Xanth, Alex and Kiro as possible scum. When all three of them acted, the day was, for all intents and purposes, decided. Soppy was getting lynched. In other words, even as scum, by waiting until the VERY last minute, they could well have insured that Soppy was going down before they committed to voting against him. They didn't vote until it was "safe" for them to hop on Sopko.

Which brings me back to Alex.

Quote
Far as myself, I did say I was starting to look at Sopko, and when I woke up boom, case on him already was made.  I guess you can vote me for my sleeping schedule if you like, or say that it is somehow scummier for me to be on the Sopko vote at the end than, yknow, NOT be on it, but that strikes me as a pretty bad WIFOM argument and not something I can defend against anyhow.

Actually, my question, Alex! I have no problem with you coming out with a case only to find it had already been made. That happens. However, you wake up while he four votes, say that you were going to propose moving towards Soppy, it had already been done and that you've got a large scum vibe from him. Then... you disappear until 3:02. Your original post was 1:37. So, my problem is not with your sleeping schedule. My problem is you come out with this idea that you wanted to propose a vote on Sopko, LEAVE YOUR VOTE ON XANTH, and disappear, only to revote at the very last minute.

Why? Everything about your post indicates that you want to move towards Sopko, but you... don't. You say the case has been made, you've got a scum vibe from him and leave it at that.

Kiro: Fair enough, for the moment. You aren't fully off the hook, but Alex is bothering me more at the moment.

##Unvote: Kiro
##Vote: Alex


Ninja Edit: Tons of ninja action, but I want to get this posted first.

Bardiche

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #147 on: December 04, 2008, 07:46:01 AM »
Still skimming through to see how the hell we managed to nail scum last day (admittedly, I didn't do very much, though I'd have liked it), but uh. Yeah. School again. Let's hope this time I actually return in eight hours. I'll hijack a computer during lunch break to see if I can catch up s'more with the present state of affairs.

And no, I wasn't attacked last night.

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #148 on: December 04, 2008, 07:48:41 AM »
And a bright new day is upon us~

I'm still catching up, and only on my first cup of tea so far. It might take a bit before I catch up fully, but that's why you learn to delegate, isn't it?

In the meantime, a brief response to Cid. I'm sorry that I can't point out to specifics about a feeling I can't even phrase right. I wonder why a mechanical student would be so concerned over it, though.

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #149 on: December 04, 2008, 08:01:19 AM »
-His stated reason for unvoting Xanth is obviously bunk because he's scum and lying is his job, so what does this leave us with? Scenario A) Sopko wanted to avoid being seen helping to kill a townie (if Xanth is town). I find this unlikely; Sopko had not invested a great deal of text in the case against Xanth (his vote on Xanth, way back on page one, had only a sentence to justify it; I believe it was just a placeholder vote that Soppy could use to make himself look active while waiting for a good train to hop on) and probably wouldn't have gained much townie cred from backing off. Scenario B) Sopko, apparently not a suspect himself at that time, decided to take a risk in order to save a scumbuddy and direct attention towards someone else. The latter part of that plan, of course, got waylaid by the case against Soppy himself.

El Cid, I'm very curious about that statement.  Sopko made no mention of anyone else, nor did he sound displeased with the Xanth train at all.  In fact, after he started going down in flames, he tried to defend Xanth, but did not attack anyone else.  What exactly gave you that impression?  Who was Sopko trying to get lynched, and how?