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Author Topic: My-Hime Mafia  (Read 58063 times)

Kiro

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #225 on: December 04, 2008, 10:53:57 PM »
Alex roleclaiming Cop is something. Everyone's gone over all the WIFOM involved with him coming out so I'll cut to what I think.

Whether he's Sane or Insane, he'd still be a cop. And given our semi-open setup, a Cop is a Townie. We try not to lynch Townies. Simple as that. I would assume Sane first before Insane anyways. While I could see the paranoia in him possibly lying, perhaps the reason he's claiming is that with Scum already down 1 and a Guilty read on another, Scum has virtually no room for error afterwards and an inability to use their role if the last one isn't a Goon. It would probably be worth an early Cop death and Town can scumhunt the last one to victory. And it's not even likely he'd die right away since there's a good chance a Doctor is here due to the lack of NK. I'd say a good call by Alex in this case.

The other thing to consider is if Alex is lying. If so, he's just trying to push the Tom lynch to fruition at his own expense. I don't know if that's worth his trouble because you can just argue towards a lynch. And the supposed real cop could also check Alex out. However, the real cop probably wouldn't come out if Tom flipped Scum. So there's not going to be a counterclaim today; the cop would wait and see. It'd be quite the gamble to push a lynch on just one person whether Alex is Town or Scum.

In the end, it comes down to scumhunting anyways. Checking Tom again, I've thought that his so called misrepresentations aren't really such. He stayed on Xanth (a legitimate Day 1 target) into Day 2 and the issues regarding Xanth haven't gone away. Nothing new changed for Tom when I went to bed so the copclaim is a twist to my thoughts.

As for Alex, it comes down to his contrasting interpretation of the Xanth wagon since he was on Tom and Andrew with his first post of the Day. He's then pretty zealous in pursuing Tom before the copclaim, bringing up a point I didn't agree with about the whole bussing the Godfather. I'm not certain what the specific benefit was in waiting for Tom's town/scum list, but at the same time, I didn't see him getting a vote today was pressure enough to make him fake a copclaim as Tom suggested.

I'd have to give the copclaim greater weight though. It's something that isn't up to misinterpretation, given it's a mod reported Guilty result. Alex has committed himself and Town has to follow through. Looks like we're all waiting for the procedural last words from Tom.

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #226 on: December 04, 2008, 11:07:13 PM »
Going to bed, so probably won't hammer. Might check the game before going to school, and that'll be my last opportunity to hammer unless I hijack the lab again.

Ranmilia

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #227 on: December 04, 2008, 11:10:53 PM »
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I'm not certain what the specific benefit was in waiting for Tom's town/scum list

To help find the last scum by getting Tom to take some stances before I went all out after him, since anything a scum says when they're under heavy fire is obviously untrustworthy one way or the other.

I'm not sure what to say about Cid's plan.  Fortunately I don't think it matters as I'm all but certain Tom's scum.

Affinity

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #228 on: December 05, 2008, 12:07:01 AM »
@Xanth: All in all, I think your sentence structure could be made a little clearer.  I don't think I have been interpreting some of the things you have been saying correctly in that case.

Also, I find my questions directed at others not being answered, but ah well.

---

Alright, I guess I have to comment on this copclaim.  Tom looks worse for the arbitary vote on Corwin as opposed to Alex, and not answering my question as to how El-Cid's argument is completely right, the same offense he's being calling Alex for.  He's just been saying that he's argument is, erm, 99% right.  Seriously, if he sounds so convinced that Alex and Xanth are scum, then why vote for Corwin?  There are only two scum left, after all (most probably), and this act is extremely, extremely ungeniune, especially since he didn't point this out himself.  Also, just as he says that Xanth seems deadset on lynching him and not paying attention to what he's been saying, he has, at the same time, seem to write him off as a liar and did not respond to some of Xanth's misrep points, as Kilga has pointed out.

But he does make the good logical argument that based on logic alone, lynching Alex is the better option, and he gains points for that.  Tom doesn't explain what Alex has to gain, though, and I myself don't see it.

Overall, I'm more towards lynching Tom than Alex (rather predictably), but even if Tom flips scum, I'm not willing to write him off as townie just yet.

Xanth

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« Reply #229 on: December 05, 2008, 12:54:53 AM »
Well I'm back home to see a ton of new posts. I'll try and check some stuff over while I get/eat dinner (at 1am, yeah), but there's no way I'm catching up before sleep.

With nothing new on the Tom front I want to get through some other stuff, especially given that I've spent most of today only on self-defence or that one case.

EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #230 on: December 05, 2008, 01:26:37 AM »
Hi!
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EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #231 on: December 05, 2008, 01:33:20 AM »
Alright, I guess I have to comment on this copclaim.  Tom looks worse for the arbitary vote on Corwin as opposed to Alex,
You know I placed a vote on Alex right? Corwin was lurking hardcore, I completely justified my vote. Everyone was doing the DL thing of believing every cop claim 100%, so continuing to go after Alex was useless. I pinged Corwin to make sure that lurkers weren't getting a free ride. I explained this. It was not arbitrary. You concern me.

Quote
if he sounds so convinced that Alex and Xanth are scum, then why vote for Corwin?  There are only two scum left, after all (most probably), and this act is extremely, extremely ungeniune, especially since he didn't point this out himself. 
Because it's bad play to railroad one (or two) people. That's obvious. If you see something suspicious, you shouldn't ignore it in favour of railroading one person!

But he does make the good logical argument that based on logic alone, lynching Alex is the better option, and he gains points for that.  Tom doesn't explain what Alex has to gain, though, and I myself don't see it.

Overall, I'm more towards lynching Tom than Alex (rather predictably), but even if Tom flips scum, I'm not willing to write him off as townie just yet.
It's pretty obvious what ScumAlex gains, he's no longer taking heat (he was coming under heavy fire), and he never has to commit to anything (claim roleblock/the NK target).
So you're saying if I flip scum, you'd consider that Alex was scumbussing me? That's very unlikely.
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Xanth

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« Reply #232 on: December 05, 2008, 01:35:55 AM »
After thinking about it, the cop claim is far simpler than the mess of conjecture that people have forwarded. Screw the implications of various lynches and flips, screw the planning for a theoretical scumAlex to keep on convincing the rest of us that he's a cop despite repeated failures and related complications - the whole thing is irrelevant when the deal is completely ruined by an actual cop, who can at worst oust Alex as of day 3. Even assuming he gets lynched ahead of Alex, that's two for one and not a good deal for scum at all. It's not like killing the cop tonight helps them either (even assuming they could guarantee it, say by having a role cop who hit the actual cop the previous night), as it just draws even more suspicion to Alex, especially if said cop flips insane (which they can't possibly know). There's no guarantee that the actual cop would sit still and not make a fuss today, either.

There are just clearly far too many variables that lead this to total failure for this to make sense as a scum plot. I am thus pretty much completely certain that Alex is either a cop as he claims, or is going to crash and burn horribly as scum no later than tomorrow. Tom's flip would do nothing to change this for me, and I don't think this should be pivotal for other people.

EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #233 on: December 05, 2008, 01:45:19 AM »
Halfway agreed. If Tom does flip Town -- which, hey, I still don't think he will, but it's not like I haven't been wrong a million times in these games -- there will definitely be some questions about Alex. That doesn't mean we should immediately lynch him without asking those questions and getting some answers, though.
Worst case scenario is you lynch me, I flip town, he says "oops I'm insane", then you lynch him and he also flips town. That's 2 dead town.
Best case scenario, you lynch me, I flip town, then you lynch him and he flips scum - 1 dead town and 1 dead scum - but this will not happen because he will worm his way out of it tomorrow.
Alternatively, lynch Alex, and you have either 1 dead scum, or 1 dead insane cop and 1 confirmed town, or 1 dead cop and 1 confirmed scum.
This situation is much better.
Of course the DL always blindly believe every cop claim, and scum will exploit that to the bitter end.

Also, and my head is filled with enough mucus right now that maybe I'm just a big thickie, but still: we've seen that there was a Godfather in the game. Doesn't that necessitate a Cop to counter it, at least in a fairly average role setup the likes of which we... seem to have, given Carthrat's description of the semi-openness?
My Anonyscifi mafia had a godfather, a miller, and no cop. There was another game recently that had a similar setup. There might not be a cop.
Even if Alex is an insane cop, I still think we should lynch him anyway.
Obviously I have a vested interest, but I've given you an objective reason why.

More to follow!
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Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #234 on: December 05, 2008, 01:47:13 AM »
A wise man once said, "Even scum can have RL excuses". The fact of the matter is that the first post I linked to is nothing but a recap, which is not at all useful for anything and fits the reporter style to a T.

The "wise man" argument is really invalid because, guess what? So does Town. Being at school isn't an inherently scummy attitude.

Methinks you misunderstand the point of the saying. School, like any other real life issue, is a legitimate excuse for both town and scum. As such, it is not an excuse for a poor post, as it can be used by either side.

And no, I really didn't say much on it. I can't and won't really excuse it. Surprisingly I don't really find it something lynch-worthy myself─would it have been fine if I hadn't posted at all? I often wonder whether I should or shouldn't communicate, and if the answer to the previous question is "Yes", then that seals that deal for me.

You're wandering into both False Dichotomy and Appeal to Emotion territory here. My answer is that you should NOT not post at all, but you should also not post posts that are opinionless summaries doubling as placeholders.

In this instance, yes, I believe it would have been better to not post at all if the only other alterrnative was to post what you did. (Again, false dichotomy, but that can be ignored for the purposes of this hypothetical situation.) If you absolutely must post to maintain a presence in the thread while you work your way toward time where you can actually focus, stuff like this is better (in my opinion: there are others that would disagree, most notably those who prefer no excuse for absence is made at all) because you don't look like you're trying to look like you're contributing without actually doing so. If that makes sense.

I can't be sure of anything in a game where manipulation and deceit reign highly. The only person I can trust is myself, so I'm quite sorry if I cannot be certain of "HE'S SCUM" or "HE'S TOWN". Even if I did solidly place my stances in such a manner I could still change them quickly and easily - after all, the game is deceit and trickery.

You could but it would be a hell of a lot harder to do so without looking really bad. It is better to solidly commit to an opinion not because you genuinely think what you're saying is true, but because it allows others to get a better read on you and form their own opinions accordingly. If you're flip-flopping all over the place you're going to stick out like a sore thumb (because if you're town you have no reason to do this).

Solid ideas don't mean jack shit if something suddenly changes and you find yourself second-guessing yourself.

Most reasonable people will give leeway for opinion-switching based on drastic changes (such as a cop claim with a scum report in hand).

I explicitly called him "notScum" - I don't want to panic monger, but Rat promised no 3rd Party at less than 14. That makes me think that 14 and higher yields a 3rd party, and complete apathy to yes or no nailing scum could indicate a third party.

You miss the point again. Your assessment of Cid started off as a negative one and ended as a positive one, and I have a very hard time seeing the bridge connecting those two sentiments in the rest of that paragraph. It's like you forgot what your opinion of Cid was halfway through. (Either that or you were somehow leaning TP on Cid, and I find it very hard to believe that anyone could make that call on Day 1.)

His immediate assault on DreadThomas with disregard for other cases. Everyone's arguing about Xanth and Alex goes, "I think Xanth's completely Town, come lynch Tom!" That's... one-track to me.

Not what I was asking. "His one-track approach is pretty..."...what? Townish? Scummy? Clever? Crazy? Gassy? Use an adjective instead of an ellipsis. "It makes me wonder" and "I'm not sure what makes me dislike it" are not terribly helpful. Sure, you say you dislike it, but you say it in such a fashion that's easily brushed off as nothing later at your convenience.

Yep. I state the obvious. I do this. Guilty as charged. It is indeed not an actual opinion, but I'm not even going to contest that - if you want to lynch me for that, I'm not even going to bother defending because that's such a trivial thing to me that I disregard it as being worth a dime.

I pointed it out because you included it in your "here look at my opinions!" section when it was not an opinion.

Because I hadn't counted the votes, primarily, and because I also wanted to spend some time on Excal who I also suspect of scumminess. And yes, it is important to lynch Tom to clear up the matter lest it chases us for the rest of the game, or until Scum offs either of them, or someone clears Alex or whatever.

Then why not simply go back, count the votes and vote for Tom when you see it's safe? Or, if you're not sure, vote for no one? (I was even nice enough to point out in the post before yours that Tom was at L-2! :V) Do you not realize why "We need to lynch Tom! *Excal vote*" looks bad?


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

EvilTom

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Re: Truant Spaghetti Mermaid
« Reply #235 on: December 05, 2008, 01:48:17 AM »
Alex is either a cop as he claims, or is going to crash and burn horribly as scum no later than tomorrow. Tom's flip would do nothing to change this for me, and I don't think this should be pivotal for other people.
If my flip will have no effect on Alex, then.. why lynch me >.>
It's very unlikely both Alex and I are scum, and if the truth will come out about Alex that soon, then lynching one of us seems like a wasted action?

Xanth's actions do not correspond with his words.
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Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #236 on: December 05, 2008, 01:52:29 AM »
Everyone was doing the DL thing of believing every cop claim 100%, so continuing to go after Alex was useless.

Of course the DL always blindly believe every cop claim, and scum will exploit that to the bitter end.

You do realize this sort of thing does not help you at all, right?


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Xanth

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« Reply #237 on: December 05, 2008, 01:53:06 AM »
The possibility of scumAlex and no actual cop is meaningless when Alex would have no way of knowing this at all, and hence should still be certain not to fakecop out of fear of a still very likely actual cop pinning him down.

Tom Ninja: what, no. I want to lynch you because I think you're scum. I just don't see a causal relationship to how you flip and how I react to Alex.

EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #238 on: December 05, 2008, 01:56:17 AM »
You do realize this sort of thing does not help you at all, right?
Duh, I'm at L-1 with a scum verdict. I'm not doing all this to survive, I'm doing this so that after my flip you guys will have something to work with, other than feeling stupid.

Oh, and while I'm not responding/commenting - ##unvote;
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Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #239 on: December 05, 2008, 01:59:07 AM »
So you're just giving up?

:|

Do you mind at least claiming before you go?


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Ranmilia

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #240 on: December 05, 2008, 02:01:00 AM »
Quote
Even if Alex is an insane cop, I still think we should lynch him anyway.

Even if I am an insane cop, as soon as that fact is verified, hey what do you know I still give reliable results.  Just saying.  
Not that I'd be surprised at being lynched if that turns out to be the case, given how this game's gone.

Also pointing out that (I see Kilga ninja'd this) Tom isn't claiming, isn't considering insane cop like everyone else, etc.

EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #241 on: December 05, 2008, 02:09:26 AM »

I think you're misreading something, because there really is a big inconsistency there for precisely the reason I outlined there. Want a timeline to make it clearer?

1: Xanth post here.
2: Xanth post here.
3: Tom post here, in which he claims a contradiction in 2. Note that the quoted section is on metagaming.
4: Xanth post here, in which I respond to 3.
5: Tom post here, in which he quotes a combination of 1 and 4 as a contradiction about Kilga. Not only has the contradiction changed content, there's a time warp in which post 3 apparently predicted post 4.

Even if you try and somehow worm the initial claim into somehow referring to the initial Tom versus Kilga thing, there is absolutely no way it ties in with:

Xanth: first you said you were on Kilga's side. Then you said Kilga didn't have a side. That was the odd contradiction.

From post 5, because that inherently relies on post 4, which didn't exist at the time of post 3.

...which is a huge strike against him.

##Vote: EvilTom

(This should be L-2.)

You better have a really good explanation for the above, because I'm not at all ready to vote Alex.

Right, I've never been sure what I'm being asked here, so I'll spell it out:
I'm more on Kilgamayan's side than Tom's in that little fray, partially for Strago's reservations and also because Tom's joke argument is [unsurprisingly] incorrect.
And no, Tom's joke argument obviously doesn't count as such, given that it's not at all meaningful.
So, it's a fray but it's not meaningful? That was the contradiction I was talking about.
Why would he call a simple one line jokevote a 'fray' (massive misrepresentation) and then one post later (when the tide quickly turned against him) toss it away as a meaningless jokevote? That's a massive retcon. I called him on the contradiction. He said he didn't know what I was talking about, I wasn't sure if he was lying or not, then I forgot about it and moved onto something else.

Quote
From post 5, because that inherently relies on post 4, which didn't exist at the time of post 3.
I was referring to the first contradiction which happened between posts 1 and 2, not the one in post 4. Now I think I finally see what you've been confused about.

Quote
It's like using the phrase 'wall of text' gives you a free pass to vote for me.
I'll be perfectly honest, since I'm about to die. I didn't actually think up the WOT thing myself, I threw it in there because I'd seen Alex do the same only a couple of posts before:
Xanth on the other hand, in descending order of possibly scummy stuff:
- Maintaining his wall of text style, even this early on day 1.  I loved it when we were scumbuddies together and he did that.  Side'sve switched.  It's not a good style.
Alex said that, I thought "oh yeah why not, I'll throw in WOT as an afterthought in my post", then suddenly Xanth unvotes Alex, and starts wailing on me for saying he's WOTing. That's where I got horribly confused, and made a possible Xanth/Alex link.
Then today Alex came out with "XANTH IS %100 TOWN, HE IS %100 RIGHT, TOM IS SCUM GOGOGO".
You appreciate my concern.

...
You do get ##Unvote: Alex for that, though, seeing as you've started to actually play.
...

##Vote: EvilTom

For hideous misrepresentation to justify his vote. It's like using the phrase 'wall of text' gives you a free pass to vote for me.
So yeah, that was the whole Xanth/Alex thing from day 1.
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EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #242 on: December 05, 2008, 02:13:01 AM »
Quote
Even if Alex is an insane cop, I still think we should lynch him anyway.

Even if I am an insane cop, as soon as that fact is verified, hey what do you know I still give reliable results.  Just saying. 
The only way to verify it is if you die, or you provide a useful result. Neither of those will happen if you're scum.
If we listen to you, you're the shining bastion of townyness - no matter what I flip or what happens, you're still confirmable town, right?
Even if your night 2 action targets the guy who just died. Or you're roleblocked indefinately. Oops!

Quote
Also pointing out that (I see Kilga ninja'd this) Tom isn't claiming, isn't considering insane cop like everyone else, etc.
I'm not claiming 'cos I'm not done yet.
Why the hell would I consider the possibility you're Cop, that's retarded and akin to admitting my own guilt. Grow a brain.

So you're just giving up?

:|

Do you mind at least claiming before you go?
Does it look like I'm giving up or going? I'm posting heaps, geez.
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EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #243 on: December 05, 2008, 02:16:43 AM »
Bard: I don't think anyone's seriously holding Tom's jokevote against him by this point. Misrepresentation, though? Yes, that's still valid. And I find the cop claim against him highly persuasive. I went over this in my most recent post; let me know if anything's unclear.
The day 1 stuff was just stupid day 1 stuff. Before the Alex copclaim, Xanth was the only one still on me for it today.

The reason I was still out to get Xanth today?
The confirmed scum Godfather unvoted Xanth, looked like he was trying to derail the Xanth train, succeeded (sortof) and got lynched for such scummyness.

As per your own arguments, El Cid. Which you've forgotten :(
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EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #244 on: December 05, 2008, 02:18:37 AM »
Also pointing out that (I see Kilga ninja'd this) Tom isn't claiming, isn't considering insane cop like everyone else, etc.
Actually, thinking about that, it seems you're insinuating that somebody should just hammer me.
You're saying I'm wasting time by 'not claiming' and 'not considering cases' (which is crap), so I may as well be hammered huh. Good way to cut off discussion.
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Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #245 on: December 05, 2008, 02:21:03 AM »
Does it look like I'm giving up or going?

Well, yes.

I'm not doing all this to survive


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #246 on: December 05, 2008, 02:22:36 AM »
-Tom did not in fact suggest that Sopko was bussed and Alex stating that Tom did suggest this looks wonky.

-Mentioning paranoid cop as a possibility. Others have pointed out why this is odd: this sanity is not included in the role list provided by the mod. And you are obviously aware of said list because you referred to it on day one to point out why there could be no Lovers in this game. Memory slip or some sort of ploy? I'm not sure.
QFT.


Bottom line? It's day two, we've already hit one scum, and lost no townies. We can afford to take the time to test Alex's cop claim, especially since the player he's designated as scum has other good reasons to be a candidate.
And I thought you were so logical and towny :( We can never afford to fuck up.



If this picks up, I'll have a question for our erstwhile cop later in the day. I'll wait and see how things develop first, though.
???
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EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #247 on: December 05, 2008, 02:24:13 AM »
Does it look like I'm giving up or going?

Well, yes.

I'm not doing all this to survive
Dude. I'm trying to help as much as I can. I'm at L-1 with a scumclaim over my head, don't make this more painful for me than it already is >_> at least don't harass me when I try and provide some thoughts
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EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #248 on: December 05, 2008, 02:33:14 AM »
Ok I've caught up and posted on everything now.
Claim = vanilla town.

I'm happy to answer questions etc.

As far as I can tell, the only things against me are some day 1 stuff which amounted to nothing, and this cop claim which has amounted to everything. I've done as much as I can to argue against the cop claim (and even argue why it's safer to lynch Alex even if he is telling the truth), so there's not much I can do beyond that on the subject.

El Cid, Alex, Strago and Xanth are all 'completely convinced I'm scum', which is disheartening.

I think Bard is pretty towny.
I thought El Cid was super-town, but I've had to demote him a bit.
Xanth and Strago are all over the place. You know my thoughts on Alex. He could be legit, but he's definately not sane, and he's been acting scummy so I pegged him as fakeclaiming.
Corwin.. I don't know if he's being good and logical, or if he's scum siding with me to reap the benefits when I flip town. Perplexing.
Andrew seems ok. Moderately town.
Kiro is confusing, neutral.
Excal neutral.
Xanth himself.. I can't tell anymore, see what he does after my flip I guess.
Hmm.
This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time.

EvilTom

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #249 on: December 05, 2008, 02:48:00 AM »
Anyone else about? I don't really have anything to add on my own.
This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time.