Author Topic: My-Hime Mafia  (Read 60154 times)

Ranmilia

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #300 on: December 06, 2008, 03:04:32 AM »
I tried that with Tom at the start of day 2.  Nobody bought it, and most of the game's attention went towards the cases on Xanth and myself.  I legitimately thought Tom was scummy from day 1, and with the investigation in hand, I thought it was worth claiming to get him lynched immediately because that would cripple the scum team's night actions and deny them any roleblocking etc.  Obviously it didn't work out, but... I had the result and the opportunity, I had to go for it.

I know I'm town.  Day 1's outcome indicated Xanth was almost certainly town (and now I have a result proving that to myself, too).  So...  I know for a fact the two big cases town's been going on are wrong.  Kilga and Bard have been going back and forth for a while.  I like Kilga's case, and it lines up with what I'm looking for to find scum today.  I don't think it's helpful for me to add even more walls of text making points Kilga's already made (quite exhaustively), or to go off on odd tangents.

I could for example address Excal and Andrew's comments and get into a discussion on theory and why it is a good idea for townies to follow a copclaim in an earlygame situation such as this one, but it would just lead to pointless arguments that won't help find scum right now.  Scum, unfortunately, know that I'm telling the truth, and they've got either a hitman or a roleblocker (as shown by their ability to take out Cid).  There can be little doubt that I'm either going to be killed or perpetually blocked and almost certainly lynched, if not today then somewhere down the line.  If/when it happens, it happens, I can't even say it's an objectively bad call on town's part and excessive self-defense is only going to obfuscate hunting the real scumteam.

So what do you folks think about Bard?

Ranmilia

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #301 on: December 06, 2008, 03:12:22 AM »
Actually I'm dumb, they have a roleblocker, if they had a hitman they would have used it and been able to kill Cid night 1.

Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #302 on: December 06, 2008, 05:33:13 AM »
Andrew's answer satisfies me a great deal. Personal preference says that a serious vote should never be unvoted without getting stuck elsewhere, but, well, personal preference, and I can't hold anything else he says against him.

Bard: The train I was referring to was the Day 2 Tom train (hence the "subsequent flip" part of that sentence), not my vote for you or your vote for Excal.

Also, if you feel someone is town, then you should not want to lynch them under any circumstances. It is not in town's best interest to lynch townies for info, it is in town's best interest to lynch scum. Period. Lynching a townie is never ever ever ever ever ever a good idea.

As an aside, I don't understand how Cid was planning to prove Alex was an insane cop with his own role. Investigating Cid himself would have pulled an Innocent result from the Miller which subsequently would indicate Cid to be Scum. It'd be a crazy ass WIFOM considering several of us believed Cid to be all but confirmed Town since he also was the only one who claimed being shot at, but Town would supposedly have followed through to lynch Cid to reveal him as a Bulletproof Miller. I actually don't get what would have definitively been shown.

If Cid had claimed Miller at that point I would have believed him. He started the Sopko wagon AND was the only one to claim being attacked on Night 1.

Actually I'm dumb, they have a roleblocker, if they had a hitman they would have used it and been able to kill Cid night 1.

It's possible they have a hitman with limited uses and simply didn't want to use one on Night 1.


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Strago

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #303 on: December 06, 2008, 06:40:59 AM »
Tired.

Can't decide what I think of Affinity's vote against Alex. Alex did attempt to deal with Tom first without use of a roleclaim, after all. Then again, that's really the only notable stance he's taken in 2.5ish game-days, now. Unf. Something has felt off about Alex all freaking game to me, but I'll be damned if I can qualify it sufficiently. That and I don't yet want to take the chance on lynching a potential Cop. I just hope that if he's leading us around by the nose we'll get wise before it's too late.

Hmm. What of this case against Bard. Part of me feels as if such a massive offensive against a single player speaks more to a desire to get them lynched for it's own sake than to actually root out bad behavior. However, Kilga is at the very least being extremely proactive. Bardiche is being nothing but reactive, and it smacks of scum doing frantic damage control. Much more energy is spent defending himself than doing anything to actively benefit the town, and that just isn't right.

Here we have by far the most Bard's said recently that wasn't singly in defense of himself:

Excal going away is... really damn inconvenient to me, since I suspect him of scumminess and then he's going away!
Alright, here we go.

##VOTE: Excal

There is no looming Cop claim right now, so I want to pick up where I left off.

Quote
Quote
Quote from: Excal on December 04, 2008, 08:11:27 PM
Also, Bard, in regards to why I was more interested in my side thing.  It's because I really was hoping for a role blocker, irrationally so I suppose.  Regardless, had that been the case, it would have meant, like I said earlier, that we'd have nailed scum 100%.  Sadly, the actual resolution is utterly inconclusive (or does have answers, but not ones which benefit Town to be talked about and so I'm dropping this thing like a radioactive potato) so yeah.  I get to stand here and look silly.

You may also have noticed that although I said I was going to think about it as I was leaving, I had also shown signs of musing it over before I left.  Most importantly in the aspect of admitting that whatever else had happened, I had been wrong in my earlier paranoia and that the Alex scenario I had earlier mentioned no longer fit as I had put it.

Your hope for a roleblocker is... irrational indeed, that you prioritize possibility in favor of what's been concretely put in our faces.

I must've missed those signs. You've been rather reserved insofar as commenting on the relevant matters go, though. I note your Day 1 activity was there, but little of it actually seemed keen on scumhunting. The only real vote you placed was on Sopko after things went awry for him. Your continued behaviour in that regard Day 2 makes it even look worse.

I won't hold your lack of a vote Day 2 against you─that'd be unfair given my own vote record, and I am already straining the reaches of courtesy by holding it against you Day 1 when I was hardly present for the first Day. I justify it to myself only as your activity being there despite no vote.
But despite that, I still hold your lack of... lack of actual scumhunting against you.

Excal's been lurking altogether and has been lackluster in actual scumhunts. When the entire Tom Case became an actuality and the soup du jour as Strago put it, Excal waved it off as paling in comparison, supposedly "showing signs of mulling it over" when I saw no such signs.

Also:
Quote
My first thought is that the Roleblocker theory seems slightly more plausible to me due to the fact that if the scum assumed doctor instead of bulletproof, as seemed to be the sentiment in the thread, then with Alex's revelation that it would be more likely that El Cid would not be under Doctor protection due to wanting to keep the Cop alive

the fact that if scum assumed doctor instead of bulletproof. This may be going into WIFOM, but the fact that something happened to that Night Kill, be it Roleblock (either side) or Hitman (scum), doesn't really indicate the Scum assumed anything. I do not know why you purport that they must've assumed Bulletproof.

---->

ADDENDUM:
I realize Kiro and Affinity have been lurking hardcore. Speak up you two.

Bard's case against Excal seems mostly to stem from weirdly reading into some perceived Freudian slip (which, come to think of it: I seem to recall catching some flak from him when I did the same thing back in Smash Bros. mafia, but that's an aside and not my main point) about the game's role structure, and the fact that Excal hasn't aggressively scumhunted. In particular, there's that part I bolded, where Bardiche seems to pretty deliberately re-write the history of Soppy's lynch, since Excal jumped on that train significantly before it was popular and when another person supporting the Xanth lynch would not, it seems to me, have been seen as all that weird or scummy. It being Day 1 and all. Oh, and then Bard tells some lurkery people to talk more. Not exactly rigorous scumhunting, for Day 3.

Yeah, I'm interested enough in his sketchy behavior to be pursuing this, right now. Let's see where it takes us.

##VOTE: Bardiche

Kiro

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #304 on: December 06, 2008, 07:25:43 AM »
Nothing stands out for me between Alex and Xanth upon my reread. Xanth has an early spat with Alex because he thinks it's not playing to his metagame read of Alex. Alex has a vote on Xanth for awhile, but looks like he's pressing the case as seriously as one would for most Day 1 cases (which is loosely). Switches to Sopko at the end of Day 1. Day 2 trend is pretty supportive of Xanth given his guilty result on Tom. I actually don't see too much specifics on that except when Alex says that everything Xanth has said about Tom is true which bolsters his case on Tom given he's assuming himself Sane. The only thing I don't agree with what Alex said is that Xanth was pretty hard on Sopko at the end in post 140. I don't think there's anything really suspicious here for a Scum Alex to be covering up for a Scum Xanth despite some Day 1 concerns Town had with him. Given I think Alex is indeed an Insane Cop, I'm willing to believe the result that Xanth is Townie too.

On my reread, I did take note of Andrew a little more. Andrew did vote Xanth to L-1 a little unexpectedly. Sopko also endorsed one of his posts once, and while that's completely on Sopko, it's a possible scum link to consider. His Day 2 stuff looks better. Andrew's first case on Day 2 about Alex/Xanth/myself isn't a bad one though. Checking Alex for his timing of the vote continued that case down the line after me, but pretty much everything retracted after the copclaim. I don't think the issue regarding the Tom hammer is a big deal because anyone on or not on the wagon is kind of moot due to the reliance of the copclaim. So suspicion was kinda there, but hasn't noticeably increased with his Day 2 actions.

So in the end, Bardiche still stands out. His views are pretty inconclusive if not hard to understand in his posts and I disagree with his Excal vote reasoning and the case in general. He reiterated that case twice before, but I think it's wrong.

##Vote Bardiche

Cut by Strago: His and my vote for Bardiche would put him at L-2 at this point.

Corwin

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #305 on: December 06, 2008, 07:53:17 AM »
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2506.msg42896#msg42896

Affinity here seems to be saying, in his second paragraph, "I think Alex is genuinely a cop. But he's playing badly and not looking for scum the way he should be, so let's lynch him."

And I don't get how you would vote Alex with those reasons. If you'd gone with something such as 'Alex can't possibly be a cop, he acts too scummy for it' I could understand the push to lynch him, but the way it's presented is entirely too strange. Given you made the first vote against Alex, please convince people they should be actually voting for Alex. Also, I would like to hear your thoughts on Bardiche.


On other matters. Alex keeps on clearing Xanth and otherwise tying himself very closely to him. First, the rationale was the events at the end of day 1. Then, it was 'scum Tom' being so hard on Xanth's case. THEN, it was Alex's investigation clearing Xanth beyond any doubt (and there are other things, such as day 1 attacks on each other early on, which scum often go for). Given that Alex himself admits they were both targets for town, and then proceeds to castigate town as being massively wrong on both such cases, I feel that this is all strong evidence of Alex and Xanth being on the same team.

I don't think it needs to be actionable just yet, especially since there is, after all, a reasonable possibility they are both town despite coming off as scummy. Merely wanted to get it out while there's time, since I don't know how long I could go on without my Natsuki.


I'm leery of trying to go for Alex or Xanth at this juncture, as I've mentioned. That leaves Excal, Bardiche or a new case. I see the value of hounding Excal and forcing him to participate more satisfactory, but not if he isn't around to actually do so. That would merely waste my efforts at this time. And Bardiche's case had caught quite a few eyes.

The main charge about Bardiche seems to be trying to coast by without sticking his neck out, essentially being reactive rather than active, as Strago had put it. Thus, I would like to request Bardiche to either show some of that lacking activity.


Kiro: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2506.msg42951#msg42951

Okay, so you go and look at Alex and then you jump on the Bardiche train? The reason seems to be 'I don't understand your cases and disagree with your lynch target'. Now, I can see reasons for Bardiche to seem scummy. But which of your stated reasons for voting him actually relate to Bardiche being or acting scummy?


I have my own Bardiche thoughts, they would follow today in a separate post.

AndrewRogue

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #306 on: December 06, 2008, 07:56:30 AM »
Ho'kay. Suffice to say. I am not particularly happy right now.

First and foremost, let's talk about Alex. Alex! You are so much smarter than you are acting right now, and I am confused as to why. You are missing incredibly obvious possibilities, giving dodgy/twisted answers to questions and doing outright bizarre things. For example, as Kilga points out. You throw away the suggestion that scum could have a hitman on the basis that Cid wasn't killed initially... ignoring the fact that limited hitman is possible. You say you thought Cid's plan involved him being a Watcher, when, based on potential roles, that would prove absolutely nothing whatsoever. I KNOW you are sharper than this, man.

Which brings up another random point. You say the way day 1 unfolded indicated that Xanth was almost certainly town. How? Where does this logic come from? From what I can tell, if anything, the day one outcome, if anything, is far more implicative of Xanth being scum than anything. You claim Xanth was pretty hard on Sopko towards the end of the day, but I'm not seeing it. Furthermore, why did you go and investigate Xanth if you really thought he was, essentially, cleared by day 1 results anyway? Wouldn't it be more constructive to investigate someone you aren't almost totally sure of? Assuming that you are likely to die/be roleblocked soon, why not try to root out scum and give us something to work with on your flip when we know for sure what you are?

Then, let's add in the fact that, despite the leanings yesterday that town wouldn't go the "Lynch Alex!" if Tom flipped town, I find it even weirder that scum, who apparently are capable of confidently killing through protection, allowed you to survive another day. Sure, I'll yield the possibility that it was so they could hit a confirmed townie AND convince us to lynch you. But at the same time, that also required they risk that you uncover another scum in the process AND your lynching confirms it.

At this point, I'm really inclined to believe we are better off lynching you at this point. Your behavior is indicative of, at the very best, bad play and at worst, scummy play. More to the point, given all the various permutations of the game at this point (which include you being scum, lucky framers, etc), your "investigations" are relatively useless to town. There are far too many possible permutations to take them seriously without an actual confirmation of your role and alignment. Add in your associated behavior (which I've obviously taken issue with) and your day 1/2 action and I'm really inclined to say that lynching you is what I really want to do.

So. Rap with me. What's up with you?

##Vote: Alex

On the subject of Bardiche: I'm... actually somewhat inclined to agree with the current sentiments about Bardiche. He is definitely proving relatively passive and sort of skating by on other people's arguments. I notice, for example, when he goes off on his entire Excal rant, he totally ignores my commentary on Excal. He's kinda... cherry picking arguments and, indeed, focusing more on general commentary than close analysis or anything. It is definitely a bit suspicious.

I would definitely like to hear some more thoughts from you on other cases, as well as why, for example, you missed my nitpicking of Excal when making a case on him.

Ninja'd: Blah. Whatever. I spent WAY too much time on this post. I'm getting it out there and breaking for a few.

Kiro

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #307 on: December 06, 2008, 08:37:44 AM »
Corwin: I posted about Bardiche earlier today while I was waiting for Alex to come online. That post is below with more detailed views.
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2506.msg42873#msg42873
I went and reread Alex afterwards and am convinced he's an Insane Cop. Checked a few other things and then came back to Bardiche.

Affinity's grab against Alex is that he isn't scumhunting. I disagree on this because if he's a Cop, he can and should first rely on his investigative result. After he found Xanth to be Townie, then he'll have to scumhunt for that Day. He pursued what he thought was the prominent case for today which happened to have already been brought up by Kilga. But on that note, Alex should then provide a detailed view of what he thinks about everyone else.

Andrew's questions about Alex are some details Alex got wrong like ruling out Scum can't have a Hitman because they'd use it on Night 1. People have touted him to be a solid player (and we've seen him a bit at MotK), but people make mistakes and these aren't mistakes in argument interpretation. They're just scum setup which is a fickle thing to figure out anyways. As for choosing to investigate Xanth, isn't that reasonable because he's the other major target after Tom? Just because he thinks Xanth was Townie all this time doesn't mean he has proof without an investigation. Once he cleared Xanth out of the way, all major bandwagons from the past have been resolved and he can focus on scumhunting from scratch everyone else.

I said earlier that there's no way to prove Alex's copclaim except via his death, but is it really worth having Town do so? If he is indeed the insane cop, Scum will eventually have to deal with him themselves. Let Scum kill him also because the more players Alex clears, the fewer places Scum have to hide. I think Town should take that chance of leaving him alive to find someone who he can catch as scum via investigative result. If he makes a mistake right there, then he'll get the rope. We still have a few days leeway to let him try and we shouldn't waste that chance.

AndrewRogue

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #308 on: December 06, 2008, 08:51:05 AM »
Kiro: The problem is that making such mistakes is indicative of Alex not really examining things or thinking them through. Furthermore, this isn't a case of just making one error. He's made a few at this point which is not something that reflects positively on him.

On the Xanth subject... even WITH an investigation, Alex isn't really clearing anything up until his flip. While I can sort of understand it from a general perspective (Xanth will eventually be a cleared townie, presuming Alex is indeed an insane cop), from the perspective the cop, it makes less sense to me given that the cop basically thought he was cleared. What it boils down to is feeling like the investigation could be better used (if game and conversational logic clears him up well, then you're better off checking wild cards), but I will admit, it might be a personal thing in this case. I am willing to hear out alternate logic here, but it just grates against Alex's doubts about Cid's plan and his own feelings about Xanth.

Carthrat

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #309 on: December 06, 2008, 09:28:20 AM »
Day 3 votecount!

Excal (1): Bardiche
Bardiche (4): Kilgamayan, SirAlex, Strago, Kiro
SirAlex (2): Affinity, AndrewRogue

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Roughly 28 hours remaining, give or take.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2008, 09:49:32 AM by Carthrat »
WHAT BENEFITS CAN ONE GET FROM SCIENTOLOGY?

Corwin

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #310 on: December 06, 2008, 09:30:43 AM »
Yes, Kiro, you did. But it's really a more verbose post than the one where you eventually ended up placing a vote. There is nothing substantial there I can see that goes "--and that is why I think Bardiche is scummy."

Why do I find it important? Because a weak support of a case like that makes for a great defense should Bardiche get lynched and flip as town. "Well I was only thinking Kilga sounded persuasive so I went along with it" and the like.

I also strongly disagree with the sentiment of 'let scum kill Alex'. They may never do so, and not only if Alex is scum himself. It could be a calculated gambit on the part of scum. Unless Alex manages to survive long enough to find us all our scum in the next few days thus leading to our win, I hold the opinion that he should be lynched before we reach any LYLO situation. Again, though, I feel that today is too early for that.

This leads into Andrew's case. While I certainly agree with the issues Andrew finds with Alex, and have my own from before (which were never truly addressed, I must note), an Alex lynch today gives us little. I would like to wait at least a day on it and hear from Alex tomorrow, first.

Still reading on Bardiche while getting distracted, walls of text, so sad, etc.

Xanth

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Lode King Bacon
« Reply #311 on: December 06, 2008, 09:35:30 AM »
Right, I'm awake. It's 9:35am here, and I should have until nearly 2pm in which to actually post content in without much distraction. I'm posting this placeholder to hold myself to actually doing this.

Xanth

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Paprika Leek Adventure
« Reply #312 on: December 06, 2008, 10:16:10 AM »
Right, it's become clear I need this visual aid to stop me from checking and rechecking this stuff. Just the facts, not useful posting it by itself, I know, but let me get it down so I can at least help myself.
0.

Not singling out no-voters out as an inherently scummy thing when there are circumstances behind such, but it's an interesting caveat.

Final votes in bold, joke votes in italics.

Day 1 Finish

EvilTom (0): Kilgamayan, Strago, Xanth
AndrewRogue (0): Excal
Corwin (0): HunterSopko
Affinity (0): Bardiche
Excal (0): Xanth, SirAlex
El-Cideon (0): Affinity, Kiro
Bardiche (0): El-Cideon
Kilgamayan (0): EvilTom, Corwin, El-Cideon, SirAlex
SirAlex (0): Xanth, Corwin
Xanth (2): HunterSopko, SirAlex, EvilTom, Kilgamayan, El Cideon, AndrewRogue
Strago (1): Kiro, Affinity
HunterSopko (7): El Cideon, Excal, Strago, Corwin, Kilgamayan, SirAlex, Xanth

(no vote down at end: Bardiche, HunterSopko, Kiro)


Day 2 Finish

Affinity (0): Kiro
Kiro (0): AndrewRogue
Xanth (0): El Cideon, EvilTom
EvilTom (7): Sir Alex, Xanth, Strago, El Cideon, Kilgamayan, Excal, Affinity
SirAlex (1): AndrewRogue, EvilTom, Corwin
Corwin (0): EvilTom
Excal (0): Bardiche

(no vote down at end: AndrewRogue, Bardiche, EvilTom, Kiro)

Affinity

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #313 on: December 06, 2008, 10:52:10 AM »
@Kiro:

Quote
I disagree on this because if he's a Cop, he can and should first rely on his investigative result.

Well, not so for yesterday, where he had no idea with regards to his sanity.  When in such situations, you have to scumhunt first, then check back with your result and make judgments as to your sanity, not just pushing ahead with your result hoping that you're sane.  He did ask the question as to who's likely town and scum, but nothing else other than that, quite plainly.

@Corwin:

Quote
Affinity here seems to be saying, in his second paragraph, "I think Alex is genuinely a cop. But he's playing badly and not looking for scum the way he should be, so let's lynch him."

Well, sorry if I was unclear, but no, I'm not sure, by any means, that he's not scum.  In fact, my argument was pointing towards the conclusion that he is likely scum.

---

As for Bardiche, I agree that he's on the losing side of the spat with Kilga, but I don't think it necessarily point towards him being scum, due to the defense of 'playstyle' which I find rather irritating (reminds me of UK).  The taking of fluid stances doesn't really tell us anything, sure, and is definitely leading towards scum, but I'm willing to treat his Excal vote on day two as more townie than scummy in my book, since I did face a similar situation before as townie.  He has also tried to scumhunt, unlike some other people.  Furthermore, no offensive actions that have directly hurt town.  Therefore, no, not at the top of my piorities now. 

---

Alex's response seems to help a little, making a valid point about trying to argue for EvilTom's lynch and failing, but I think the ending's a little too symphathetic to my tastes.  A reread might be in question.

Corwin

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #314 on: December 06, 2008, 11:09:32 AM »
Okay. The last posts feature goes back from the present, so that's how I looked over Bardiche's posts.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2506.msg42855#msg42855
Sacrificing vanilla town to vet a cop's sanity if you trust the cop's player is not actually a scummy move.


http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2506.msg42827#msg42827
Cid as Third Party suspicions. Seems to come out of nowhere.

Also:
Quote
Quote
Not what I was asking. "His one-track approach is pretty..."...what? Townish? Scummy? Clever? Crazy? Gassy? Use an adjective instead of an ellipsis. "It makes me wonder" and "I'm not sure what makes me dislike it" are not terribly helpful. Sure, you say you dislike it, but you say it in such a fashion that's easily brushed off as nothing later at your convenience.

His one-track approach is pretty I cannot bring it under words so I am making use of implied dislike for the one-track approach. If I have only gut to rely on I can't make it any clearer than I have. I don't rely solely on logic in this game─if I did I'd have little to rely on for myself.

Really dislike this exchange. It's one thing to not be clear in your posts, and quite another to rebuff people who call you out on it instead of actually correcting your behavior. As town, your role would be to hunt scum and avoid becoming a target, which means you need to be clear and legible.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2506.msg42605#msg42605
Quote
Thirteen, then. Doesn't invalidate my comment, just shows a little inattentivity/scattermindedness on my behalf.

...which is bad.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2506.msg42597#msg42597
Quote
Quote
I get a sense of wishy-washy-ness in here. Even when you lay down any stances that you do, they are usually presented in an unsure-of-yourself tone that could give you the opportunity to change your mind quickly and easily.

Not to mention your point on me is completely wrong and your thought process on Cid is hard to follow given you start with disliking his attitude and end up "inclined to think [he's] notScum".

I can't be sure of anything in a game where manipulation and deceit reign highly. The only person I can trust is myself, so I'm quite sorry if I cannot be certain of "HE'S SCUM" or "HE'S TOWN". Even if I did solidly place my stances in such a manner I could still change them quickly and easily - after all, the game is deceit and trickery. Solid ideas don't mean jack shit if something suddenly changes and you find yourself second-guessing yourself. To me, the matter is entirely moot and I fail to see the problem. I am only dead-certain of people if I can be sure of myself that nothing they say changes my mind.

Is it really that difficult to see that the benefits of taking firm stances and then, when they happen to change, explaining the train of thought/logic that lead to the new stances? Or how such an approach is preferable in all ways to being wishy-washy and cautious?


A lot of posts go along the lines of 'not much time, just a quick post' and the like. Many more yet are about his own defense. While Bardiche's presence is above that of Excal, Kiro or Affinity, I'm not sure the actual content is in some way superior. I'll reiterate my request for Bardiche to talk about fresh things and be more decisive about it, before I actually go for a vote. There's enough players and enough stated opinions out there to have one, and not just for Excal, surely. Not averse to lynching Bardiche if the material I wish to see is not produced to my satisfaction.

Affinity: That clarifies things for me.

Xanth: Are you trying to imply something about Kiro and Bardiche with your visual aid?

Xanth

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« Reply #315 on: December 06, 2008, 11:45:50 AM »
Not sure where that '0.' came from. I guess I leaned on the numpad when I went to click post.

Thought: if quite so many of us are gone or going to be gone for a significant portion of this game day, do we not want to consider voting for an extension?

I will in fact lead off with ##Extension. It'll take four votes to work anyway, so it doesn't hurt for me to do so.


My stance on Alex is clear enough, so let's leave that be, not that investigating me changed the odds any more in his favour for me. Short of some really major evidence I am simply not going to consider voting for him at this point, and will strongly oppose lynching him.


I'm still horribly failing to remember that Affinity and Kiro are here, which on one hand I apologise for, and on the other am suspicious of.

In the case of Affinity, I'm still getting a rather uncertain neutral ping. I disagree with a lot of his thought patterns, and find it a bit frustrating that some points need to be hammered repeatedly to convince him (re: Tom on the contradiction inconsistency yesterday, and now with more moot points on the Alex 'cop or scum' table now (no, really, there potentially being no cop doesn't change it being a hideous risk for scum given that they wouldn't know that there would be no cop, and it's been mentioned repeatedly anyway)). Day one absence written off by this point. Day two was effectively a slide from Xanth to Tom amid some non-opinions, but isn't unbelievable given the focus of the day (and it would be hypocritical for me of all people to call him on a lack of diversity there), and balanced more by the early flag on Sopko in day one and spreading back out now.

Personally, I want to read this as slightly confused worker. It's nagging things like "But [Tom] does make the good logical argument that based on logic alone, lynching Alex is the better option" (from here) that worry me about dangerous opinions. He does conclude that he sides with voting for Tom over Alex in that very same post, but that doesn't ease my concern. Especially, you know, when he's agreed that it's apparently logical to vote for Alex, but goes with the easy lynch anyway.


With Kiro, other than disagreeing with his view on Xanth/Tom/Strago, and perhaps just a little for turning on Sopko quite so hard, re-reading day one gives a pretty positive shine. Seems perfectly reasonable to me to have not had a vote down on the end. Same-ish for day two given his continued support for Tom (although again, I think it's support for the wrong reasons) whilst also coming to the conclusion that Alex probably wasn't lying.

So yeah, on a re-read I can't say I have any real problems with Kiro, so at least a minor swing towards town for me. Dare I ask you to talk about the players you haven't really paid any attention to? (coming from me, I know, I know)


Let's split the post here.

Corwin: not especially, no. Things that need to be looked into, but not by itself. As I've just said, Kiro seems reasonable to have done so. It may yet be another strike on Bardiche, although I'm not gearing up for an attack on him.

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #316 on: December 06, 2008, 12:47:30 PM »
Quote
now with more moot points on the Alex 'cop or scum' table now

I fail to see how these are 'moot' and I'm confused as to how you're clearing Alex as a 'definite' cop.  Him not exactly scumhunting correctly has to be at the very least, a valid point which you have failed to consider.  The story of 'hedious risk' still does not convince me at all; it is simply a gamble that can pay of huge dividends if it works and even if it doesn't and someone counterclaims, scum can still defend, and it is all the more irritating that you endorse staunchly as an excuse to call everything against him moot.

Also, the post you linked, what I meant was that if you just gave me a hypothetical scenario of a claimed cop and a person singled out as scum by him, with no reference to anything argumentative, I would lynch the claimed cop first.  That is what I meant by 'logic alone', if I didn't have a chance to see their posts or anything and such to determine their alignments. 

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some points need to be hammered repeatedly to convince him

The misrepresentation point was an honest mistake and I apologize for that.  But it was relatively minor I feel, and I don't see you justified in using plural form.

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #317 on: December 06, 2008, 02:27:15 PM »
So just for clarity, Alex's vote on me is for all the same reasons as Kilga's?

I don't really like how he's shoving off his own defense in favor of everyone piling on me, but I guess I can be accused of the same with Excal. Speaking of Excal, he's completely left now so I'm stranded with that; if not doubly so because he's completely ignored it. This is why I hate scumhunting, it never yields me any results.

Andrew: I didn't pick up on your nitpick against Excal because I simply didn't bother to look back to it and add it to my case as ZOMG PEOPLE LOOK AT THIS TOO.

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So in the end, Bardiche still stands out. His views are pretty inconclusive if not hard to understand in his posts and I disagree with his Excal vote reasoning and the case in general. He reiterated that case twice before, but I think it's wrong.

What do you think is wrong about it?

---->

So bottom-line here is, I don't really have anything else to respond to Kilga, because he's ended that talk with "Well you should never ever lynch town under any circumstances", which I disagree with. And Alex, who's apparently just parroting Kilga's case and thus means I have nothing to say to him as well.

Then Strago,
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In particular, there's that part I bolded, where Bardiche seems to pretty deliberately re-write the history of Soppy's lynch, since Excal jumped on that train significantly before it was popular and when another person supporting the Xanth lynch would not, it seems to me, have been seen as all that weird or scummy.

I saw it as reading the writing on the wall. Realizing, "Crap, Sopko did something incredibly stupid here... there's no way to distract people from Xanth now!" Not to mention there were people already voicing their support for a Sopko lynch/suspicions with Sopko around that time.

I also don't really have much to respond to with Kiro since his reasons for voting me boil down into, "You're just wrong." Or to me, at least. Read his reasons as you will.

---->

So my Excal case is going nowhere, because my suspect didn't find it important enough to comment on before leaving and has left, there's nothing really I can say back to my attackers anymore since... Well, I disagree with their assaults on me, but sure fine. Short of claiming there's little I can do at this juncture and so I will ignore it until such a time someone presents something I can actually respond to.

----->

Xanth's voting record thing is fun, but had people consented to a hammer earlier I'd have hammered Day 2 so that's my defense for not having a vote anywhere when the hammer fell.

----->

So I really dislike Alex's, Strago's and Kiro's reasons for voting on me because one is a parrot, the other dislikes my case and the observation I am posting in my defense right now rather than trying to veer people off it with an alternate case and the last one doesn't even give any solid reason at all that doesn't go farther than, "Yeah, he's vague" (post examples, if you would?) and "His case is wrong".

Well then! Let's take a better look at Kiro.

Here is a Day 2 post which is a recap. People are fine with it, though, so I'm not going to go too much into it except that if Kiro's going to discount me for it, he should discount himself for it as well.

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Scum would be forced to bus in that instance and they would do it to save face.

This comment in a later post now strikes odd to me. Here he's almost saying that scum was on the Sopko bus, because they'd have to do it to save face. This by itself is not odd, but the fact he wasn't on the Sopko train makes me wonder. Almost like saying, "Hay guiz, I wasn't on the Sopko train but it's cool, scum's bussed him so it's almost certainly someone that voted Soppy."

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I'd have to give the copclaim greater weight though. It's something that isn't up to misinterpretation, given it's a mod reported Guilty result. Alex has committed himself and Town has to follow through. Looks like we're all waiting for the procedural last words from Tom.

Here he does the same again, implying that Alex can't possibly be lying "Isn't up to misinterpretation, given it's a mod reported Guilty result", even when we have no guarantee of that actually being mod given. Also states Town has to follow through, but in the same post here, he more or less implies that he doesn't think of Tom as Scum. In fact, he never quite made it clear whether or not he thinks Tom should be lynched/is scum, and oddly enough more-or-less condemns Alex in that post.

In the end, all that Kiro's done up to this point is comment on the cases made by other people while never taking a real definite stance on any of them, only solidly placing a vote on me for undisclosed and/or vague reasons, the last one being the very thing he condemns me for and cites as a reason to vote me.

In this post, he gets another pass from everyone, despite that the entire first paragraph contains little opinion and is mostly a rehash of what he's said. At this point I assume the concerns against my playstyle are mostly derived from metagame.

Quote
On my reread, I did take note of Andrew a little more. Andrew did vote Xanth to L-1 a little unexpectedly. Sopko also endorsed one of his posts once, and while that's completely on Sopko, it's a possible scum link to consider. His Day 2 stuff looks better. Andrew's first case on Day 2 about Alex/Xanth/myself isn't a bad one though. Checking Alex for his timing of the vote continued that case down the line after me, but pretty much everything retracted after the copclaim. I don't think the issue regarding the Tom hammer is a big deal because anyone on or not on the wagon is kind of moot due to the reliance of the copclaim. So suspicion was kinda there, but hasn't noticeably increased with his Day 2 actions.

Finally he has this gem right before leading up to the conclusion that I need to be voted, and it tells me nothing at all. Suspicion was 'kinda' there, but in the end he concludes that nothing's changed since Day 1? His Day 2 actions didn't ramp up suspicion for Kiro.

This is all great, but as I said, he's been hardcore lurking, votes on me for inexplicable reasons and has been generally coasting off of everyone else's cases, with the only really original content he brings up being, "I don't really sort of suspect Andrew".

Corwin

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #318 on: December 06, 2008, 02:53:36 PM »
Something Bardiche says makes me take a second look at Kiro. I've already voiced my dissatisfaction with his participation and his reasons of voting Bardiche, but a particular line gave me pause on a reread.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2506.msg42627#msg42627
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I'd have to give the copclaim greater weight though. It's something that isn't up to misinterpretation, given it's a mod reported Guilty result.

In case someone is having trouble seeing this, only the person himself, the mod and scum would believe beyond any doubt that someone who claims to be a cop with a guilty verdict on another player actually has such a verdict.

Kiro's disagreement on Bardiche's Excal case seems to draw from Excal's vote on Sopko day one. That's the only solid objection I could find in his words; the rest was vague statements that the case was weak and that he disagreed with it.

Kiro, I think I would like to request a more detailed break down on why you find the Excal case is wrong, given that assessment is one of your reasons for voting Bardiche. I would also like you to explain the certainty with which you accepted Alex's claim of receiving a guilty verdict for Tom.

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« Reply #319 on: December 06, 2008, 03:03:48 PM »
While I'm thinking about it, can I at least get people to agree that 'townAlex => townXanth', and hence 'scumXanth => scumAlex'? The point I'm making here being here that if you still think I could be scum that Alex must be my partner, so other possibilities should not be entertained. (The converse, 'townXanth => townAlex' and 'scumAlex => scumXanth' obviously do not necessarily hold and I'm not trying to claim they do, so if I do get killed at night, it's not like that would definitely clear Alex)


Of the other people today who aren't getting any heat:

Strago reads town to me. A few minor things here and there early on, and one-tracked on day two (who wasn't), but that's about it against him for me.

Corwin likewise, but more so. Really drew the Sopko train into the light. A bit of disagreement on the Alex/Tom theory in day two, but that same caution has reined in my confidence today. Vaguely lacking on interaction with a few people, I guess?

Kilga I'm not so happy with. Day one felt fine due to being the 'decisive' vote on Sopko, but Sopko was actually already looking quite likely to go down at the point Kilga first attacked him (4v4 with Andrew close to flipping, Alex shortly after also threatening the flip, and two people without votes down (Xanth and Bardiche) looking more likely to go with Sopko than Xanth, and otherwise had been part of the flow to push me way out front early on (just as Sopko is starting to be noticed by Affinity and Sopko, even, but now I'm really getting into supposition that can't be answered). Alex's fourth vote on you was very useful while El Cid's third vote on you was pointless?

The softly softly approach to Tom on day two doesn't do anything for me either. Went from a weird uncertainty on Tom when Xanth was still the prime target to sudden clarity on a singular point late on when it was clear that it wasn't going anywhere else.

After then picking up the case on Bardiche, has suddenly completely ignored his previous collaring of Xanth, even before Alex's scan claim on me. I'm not sure what I did yesterday to suddenly convince him, given that I spent practically all of yesterday attacking someone who's flipped town and defending myself (the day ending before I got back to talk about other people), which I boggle over more than just one-tracking on Bardiche.

The case against Bardiche in the first place is contrary to this profiling, which is of passively following the tides of strongest lynch cases, and the primary thing I'd have in his defence against my own feelings at this point. FoS: Kilga at this point anyway until I'm proven delusional or convert it to a vote after assessing the rest.


And bugger, as usual I take far too long to write anything. It is now way after 2pm and there's social stuff at my house to attend to. However, as it's my own fault for not getting through this, I'll plow through the other cases as I get the time during this anyhow, as I still have access to the computer. Let's hope/assume that this sees me with all cards on show before I lag behind the others again.

Ahead of actually fully looking at the Bardiche case, though, I should say that my prior thought was to suspecting Excal over Bardiche.


Affinity: Pardon me, I really did write part of that badly. I didn't mean to imply that all of your points about Alex are moot (it reads that way, I agree), just some of them. 'There may be no cop' is irrelevant to whether a theoretical scumAlex would take the plunge, is incredibly unlikely given the strength of the scum powers we've seen, and has been mentioned and discussed before (repeatedly?).

Bardiche: Sure, it wasn't listed as evidence. I needed it there to have a single reference for checking when votes and stuff happened.

Corwin

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #320 on: December 06, 2008, 03:18:49 PM »
Quote
While I'm thinking about it, can I at least get people to agree that 'townAlex => townXanth', and hence 'scumXanth => scumAlex'? The point I'm making here being here that if you still think I could be scum that Alex must be my partner, so other possibilities should not be entertained. (The converse, 'townXanth => townAlex' and 'scumAlex => scumXanth' obviously do not necessarily hold and I'm not trying to claim they do, so if I do get killed at night, it's not like that would definitely clear Alex)

I'll agree with the caveat of a potential Framer in the works, Xanth. But yes, it pretty much is what I was getting at when I said that Alex's actions (and some of your own) pretty much tie the two of you together.

Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #321 on: December 06, 2008, 04:16:56 PM »
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2506.msg42855#msg42855
Sacrificing vanilla town to vet a cop's sanity if you trust the cop's player is not actually a scummy move.

Disagree 100%. The loss in doing so is obvious. Where is the gain in doing so? I do not see it at all. Worst case scenario for scum is that everyone believes the cop is town, at which point they simply off the cop during the night, thereby wasting the vanilla's lynch AND a cop AND a day in the process.

Alex's fourth vote on you was very useful while El Cid's third vote on you was pointless?

I called Cid's vote on me pointless because I was only looking at it from the perspective of "people are voting for me" instead of "people are voting for the sake of getting reactions from other, currently uninvolved people". You'll have to pardon me for this misunderstanding - I've never been the early Day 1 catalyst train before. >_>

Alex's fourth vote also produced several immediate reactions, so it was indeed useful in that regard.

The softly softly approach to Tom on day two doesn't do anything for me either. Went from a weird uncertainty on Tom when Xanth was still the prime target to sudden clarity on a singular point late on when it was clear that it wasn't going anywhere else.

After then picking up the case on Bardiche, has suddenly completely ignored his previous collaring of Xanth, even before Alex's scan claim on me. I'm not sure what I did yesterday to suddenly convince him, given that I spent practically all of yesterday attacking someone who's flipped town and defending myself (the day ending before I got back to talk about other people), which I boggle over more than just one-tracking on Bardiche.

I directed my attention away from you because of the cop claim with scum report. There was zero sense in pressing you for Day 1 stuffs in the face of that, and since the start of today I've thought Bard more deserving of my attention than you.

You were by no means cleared to me at any time before Alex's second report, you just weren't as important as who I was focusing on at the time (whoever that may have been).


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Kilgamayan

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #322 on: December 06, 2008, 04:18:30 PM »
(That is not to say you're cleared now, of course. I'm willing to accept you as town given I'm willing to accept Alex as cop, but if he flips otherwise my opinion of you will change back.)


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

AndrewRogue

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Re: Mystery Snow Parade
« Reply #323 on: December 06, 2008, 06:43:37 PM »
While I'm thinking about it, can I at least get people to agree that 'townAlex => townXanth', and hence 'scumXanth => scumAlex'? The point I'm making here being here that if you still think I could be scum that Alex must be my partner, so other possibilities should not be entertained. (The converse, 'townXanth => townAlex' and 'scumAlex => scumXanth' obviously do not necessarily hold and I'm not trying to claim they do, so if I do get killed at night, it's not like that would definitely clear Alex)

This, right here, makes me uncomfortable in a pretty profound manner. Like, seriously. This really, really, really, really sounds like a case of you knowing something the rest of us don't. There is NO way that town Alex confirms town Xanth. Perhaps you meant town insane cop Alex confirms town Xanth? Similarly, scum Xanth doesn't prove scum Alex either, the framer possibility exists.

This is like... the single worst example of argumentation I have even seen in this topic. You are LITERALLY encouraging town to forget about other potential and realistic possibilities (the fact that a framer completely kinks up your entire argument). More interestingly, the possibilities you state are confirmed (and should not have other potentials entertained) are the ones that work best for you. If Alex flips town... well... Xanth must be too! And if Xanth flips scum, grr, you must lynch Alex because he must be scum!

This... is really making me rethink my current stance on Alex on the pure basis that this line of reasoning reflects very, very poorly on you.

Until I can consider the implications of this a bit further, ##Unvote: Alex.

Corwin gets a similar (if lesser ding) for entertaining similar logic.

On unrelated notes, since I'm going to be out for a while today, I also support ##Extension

Corwin

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Re: My-Hime Mafia
« Reply #324 on: December 06, 2008, 07:01:49 PM »
Andrew, I think this is a case of reading too much into what amounts to semantics. I've made similar arguments before myself, true, but in this case TownAlex pretty much implies InsaneCopAlex and is thus synonymous with it, particularly given the context of the previous conversations debating Alex's alignment which frames such a statement. The possibility of Alex being town and lying has been considered and mentioned before, but I have also stated at that time that the possibility of players lying, even on town's side, constantly exists and thus is implied. There is no need to explicitly state it every time, I believe. Do we really want to amend every single sentence of analysis with 'UNLESS S/HE LIES'?

I also mentioned the potential Framer issue, so I'm not really sure where you're coming from re: terrible logic.

And since two people have requested an extension already, my stance on it is that I disagree. It is a useful tool to get conversation going when we are running out of time. We are neither running out of time at this point, nor is there a particularly heated and traffic-heavy discussion taking place. To get more time because many people aren't here (or CLAIM not to be here) may well lead to stagnation. Are there any new ideas or new cases being actively pursued at this time that can't be resolved in the time we still have? I don't believe so.