My-Hime Mafia

[Carthrat]

Excal (0): Bardiche
Bardiche (6): Kilgamayan, SirAlex, Strago, Kiro, AndrewRogue, Bardiche
SirAlex (1): Affinity, AndrewRogue
AndrewRogue (1): Excal

Bardiche, aka Kurauchi Kazuya, Scum Hitman, was lynched!

Send in night actions.

[Carthrat]

"I can't take this anymore! It was me!" cries Kazuya, withdrawing a gun from his pocket. "I did it for Akane-chan! Otherwise one of you freaks would take her out, wouldn't you? And that'd be it for me. It's the end! Goodbye, Akane-chan!"

Turning the gun upon his own head, he fired. A spot of red landed on Akane's cheek, who watched with a raised hand and a dumbfounded glance. "Kazu...kun?" she murmured, disbelieving.

Ishigami slipped his own pistol back into his jacket, and put a hand on Akane's shoulder. "He was a kind man. A man who was conscientous of other people's bullets," he said, comfortingly. "Let us adjourn for the day."

The next day brought no more bodies. Yet the Hime Star still hung overhead, an ominous red tear in the sky that seemed to be getting larger every passing morning...

1. Fujino Shizuru (Corwin)
2. Sugiura Midori (SirAlexTheFirst)
3. Yuuichi Tate (Excal)
4. Minagi Mikoto (AndrewRogue)
7. Ishigami Wataru (Strago)
10. Senou Aoi (Kilgamayan)
11. Suzushiro Haruka (Xanth)
12. Yuuki Nao (Affinity)
13. Higurashi Akane (Kiro)

It is day 4!

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[Kilgamayan]

Well, that was predictable. I got attacked last night.

Xanth! Make a vote-worthy case on someone, please.

[Ranmilia]

Morning.  I investigated Andrew last night, and found scum again!  (Ahn, you're so talented, Midori-chan~)  But I'm also insane so that means he's town.  

Shockingly, I was NOT the person attacked last night.  

My first choices for scum today would be Affinity and Kiro, for their odd voting/lack thereof all game.  Excal's caught my eye as well for the move on Andrew yesterday, since I now know Andrew's (very, VERY misguided and weirdly acting) town and would make a good scum lynch.  Going to have to read up on all those before saying more.  

Corwin didn't have a vote down yesterday either and I think he's had much less presence than usual this game, which is somewhat concerning but not as much as those who haven't had votes down all game.  Strago similarly has been gone a lot, but that can't be helped.  Kilga looks pretty good to me due to dogfighting Bard all game and I know Xanth, Andrew and myself to be town for certain now.

Ninja:  Okay, Kilga's attack claim puts him squarely in the "as good as confirmed" camp too, whee.

[Kilgamayan]

Really? Well damn, there goes my framer theory.

That shoves Affinity to the front of my (now very short) list.

[Kilgamayan]

Also, can someone summarize why Excal is suspicious enough to make it worth ignoring that he was #2 on the Sopko train?

[Strago]

The key to that to me, Kilga, is that he could have reasonably expected the train on Xanth to push on to its end regardless. So not being on that train and lynching a townie would have been a positive mark for him. However, that... hrm. I guess if Xanth was as foregone a conclusion as that he could've just voted for him anyway.

Heh. I think I just talked myself into agreeing with you, Kilga. For the moment, at the least.

I guess we're all taking Bard's parting remarks as a fake blow-up designed to get us to lynch our cop?

Not sure at all who to go after next. Mrff.

[Excal]

Alright, it looks like there's no SK, so that means that Xanth and Andy are, at worst, survivors who want that last scum to die as much as we do.  Why do I say this?  Because Alex's replies are consistant with Insane Cop, which means that he's either town and giving us good data in which case they're town, or scum and therefore no one else can be, as I don't think there's four scum in a game this size.

Kilga also seems fairly safe as he's been hunting down the second scum for almost a day and a half very persistantly, which makes me trust him over and above my previous feelings about him (which were seriously rattled when Bard flipped).  On a side note, I was also hunted by Bard for a day and a half, very persistantly.  One could say it was a ploy, but it's not really a winning trade for scum to be trying to take out half of their numbers in order to try and gain confidence.

Finally, I'm ready to trust Alex for now.  If Kilga is to be believed, and I think he is, then scum aren't hunting the people Alex clears.  And the people Alex clears are clear regardless of whether or not he himself is town (barring some shenanigans, though I'm having a really hard time seeing what could screw this up).  This means that if he isn't cutting down on the number of people who he's cleared, then we'll reach, sooner or later, just Alex and the people he's given the ok to.  And that number will not favour Alex.

And this, leaves us with Corwin, Strago, Affinity and Kiro.  Strago has generally been pro-town, and I vaguely remember him being one of the first people on Soppy.  Corwin was also early on Sopko, though he's been a bit harder to notice around these parts.  Which leaves us with Kiro and Affinity, who I agree are finally due to go on the chopping block for general inactivity.  I think my preference is towards Affinity at present, though I'm not well enough versed on their scarce content to actually give an informed opinion as of yet.

[Xanth]

All I can say is that I've had a really bad game, in particular motivation-wise as of day 3, to which all I can say is sorry guys, you've managed to do well despite my presence. This day has again started just as I want to be heading to bed, so I'm pushed back yet another 8 hours or so.

I was clearly massively wrong on Kilga, as well.


A quick further bit on game logic before I sleep, though, as I'll probably forget it come morning:

As I read it (tell me if I'm missing something, as I've managed to keep on missing the outliers), Alex has technically only cleared me so far. There are three cases, assuming that a) there's only one scum left and b) only one Godfather power in the game (Sopko's):

1) Alex is insane. Both Xanth and Andrew are clear.
2) Alex is sane. Andrew is scum (no room left to frame), and both Tom and Xanth were framed.
3) Alex is scum and lying.

So Andrew isn't cleared given yet another unlikely case. 2) can be eliminated tomorrow if Alex gets another 'scum' report. A 'town' report I believe actually wins the game as there would be three lynches in which to lynch the player the town report is attached to (for case 1), Andrew (for case 2) and Alex (for case 3).

I think another 'scum' report also wins the game, in that tomorrow there would be two confirmed townsmen, three if you include Kilga, assuming that the doctor (I am assuming a doctor exists, okay, that is one unlikely possibility that breaks this) protects Alex and the scum kills one of {Andrew, Kilga, Xanth}. Either we lynch the scum and win or we hit another night and repeat. Come a theoretical day 6 with 5 people, either Alex claims 'town' and there are two lynches in which to lynch the guy who that applies to (case 1) and then Alex (case 3), given that case 2 can no longer be the case and town wins, or he claims 'scum', at which point there will be at least three out of {Andrew, Kilga, Xanth, [cleared night 4], [cleared night 5]} alive who are confirmed townsmen, who at that point can guarantee winning.

In the worst case scenario, one of {Andrew, Kilga, Xanth} is the doctor and is picked off by the scum tonight, thus rendering them capable of killing Alex before he can clear someone night 5 (if Alex doesn't then die night 5 for whatever reason then it continues as above). However, if they do kill Alex in night 5 then we retain three out of {Andrew, Kilga, Xanth, [cleared night 4]} and are guaranteed to win that way anyway.

Please check the above logic, other than the potential Kilga hole (actually being clear or not) that I haven't looked into. Unless I've missed another hole (entirely possible, it would seem), I believe this guarantees town victory simply so long as the doctor protects Alex tonight. Sure, we should totally scumhunt to win with as many townsmen left standing as possible, but it'd be nice to know that out of all of this mess I was able to help town in some meaningful manner.


Oh, and I think the Kilga hole is quite easy to resolve, come to think of it. Either someone contests being attacked at night and we have a choice of two to win from, or no one contests the attack at which point the only remaining dangerous avenue is if Kilga is scum and was roleblocked last night and hence was unable to kill, but in that case there's a town-aligned roleblocker out there who could wave around with this information, at which point we again have a choice of two and win either way. Thus if neither event happens then Kilga ought to be clear as town.

Yeah, not that I think Kilga's anything other than town at this point between the attack claim and leading a major attack on scum, but if you're looking for certainty in an argument, then the above covers that. Same with Andrew, really. The odds are farfetched of the framing situation, but the above takes that into account anyway.

[Xanth]

Pardon me, when I say "I think another 'scum' report also wins the game" at the start of that paragraph, I do just mean one from tonight's investigation, and not one from tomorrow night. Given the time of night here there are probably some other points that aren't clear, which I can answer in the morning.

[Ranmilia]

Don't direct the doctor.

Scum must kill and their target is informed of the attack if they survive, as per the rules, so there's no reason to doubt Kilga is clear.

Scum have not been playing well all game.  Sopko barely contested his demise, Bard was pretty obvious, and they haven't even made an effort to stop me even though they know for a fact leaving me alive and unmolested leads straight to their inevitable loss.  It is clear that unless Xanth is actually scum, either he or myself should have been last night's kill target, but as Xanth has pointed out it is now impossible for him to be scum.  I can say this with impunity now because it really does not matter if scum realize it or not, it's a bit too late for them.

I will admit that a bit of metagaming here is creeping into my analysis as I have a really hard time seeing Corwin, Excal and Strago play scum this way.  (No!  Bad Alex!  No meta!)  But as Xanth pointed out it probably does not matter at this point anyhow.

[Affinity]

Judging from the way Alex has been revealing his results, and his early vote on Bard yesterday,I think I was massively wrong about Alex as well as Bardiche.  Still vaguely suspicious is scum's choice of NK, why aren't they doing the obvious?  It's, well, pointing towards Alex as scum, but after three days of investiagtions, I'm quite ready to trust Alex on my part too.

Also, I felt the framer thing was pretty clever, didn't think of that.

It seems that scum do not have a roleblocker; in that case, I agree with Xanth that logically speaking, town is sure to win this time provided that Alex isn't scum.  Andrew was at the top of my list going into today as per Excal's reasons and his (to me) unsatisfactory response to the Bardiche point, but I'm afraid that Alex simply doesn't have any reason to lie about his alignment.  I haven't been playing well (whether I'm town or scum) throughout the game, as Andrew pointed out, and I'm alright with being today's lynch given the above, though I'm town.  Standard of play on this board seems substantially higher than that of MotK.  All I can say in my 'defense' was that I was the first to call out Sopko, though it didn't have much effect, regrettably.

If I'm not wrong, the last time Kiro voted was for me, at the beginning of day 2.  That's something to be concerned about.  I'm alright with him content-wise, though.

##Vote: Kiro

Excal looks good to me due to the fact that he voted for Sopko early (contributing quite an amount to the train), and that at the beginning of day two, he displayed some idea of critical thinking in choosing Alex over Xanth in being the target for day two, which slightly towards town in my opinion.  I can't say anything about him not voting Bardiche at all for obvious reasons.  His swtich to Tom, however, seemed slightly forced, but Bardiche's focus on Excal is... rather telling.

Strago, presence was strong in Day One and two, on day three, not so much.  Same goes to Corwin, I guess.  Am not sure what to think of them now.

[Excal]

Xanth, I did see the thing with the Framer Re: Andrew.  However I dismissed it as it will be invalidated tomorrow (even if Alex dies, his sanity will tell the tale) when Alex gives us his result.  Also, it involves a lucky guess, and frankly, an implausable one.  I don't think it would be a good move to frame you on night two when there were other targets for the hitting.

[Ranmilia]

Actually I think Xanth would be an obvious frame target night 2, given how Cid telegraphed his plan.  I have a hard time seeing scum randomly frame Tom night 1, though, and I think if they did we would have seen some different behavior out of them (namely someone getting on Tom with me before I claimed).  Pretty sure I'm just insane, and one way or another we'll know the truth tomorrow anyway.

Affinity's last post is pre-tty darn scummy to me so I think that's where my vote's going to go right now.

##Vote: Affinity

- Argued hard for lynching me on previous days
- "Still vaguely suspicious is scum's choice of NK, why aren't they doing the obvious?  It's, well, pointing towards Alex as scum" - pointing this out just to make sure we get it, alongside Bard's final callout
- Was first to call out Sopko, and it didn't have much effect - Soppy's play was a weaksauce attempt to tie himself to me, scumbuddies had to know this and would likely call him on it, but early, so it wouldn't have much effect, before it snowballed into a serious case.
- Is alright with Kiro content-wise.  I'm certainly not!  But if Affinity is, who isn't he fine with?

I'd like to see thoughts from all the non-cleared players for sure, of course.

[Affinity]

Argued hard for lynching me on previous days

If you're calling me out for that, then I shall point this against you if I wasn't convinced you're cop.  You said you were expecting to be lynched, and from my understanding, that implies that you are really fine with being lynched, going so far as to call it objectively alright.  This dramatic change of heart must reflect something, and I'm not willing to treat this as a valid reason by itself.  Furthermore, my points against you were valid.

pointing this out just to make sure we get it, alongside Bard's final callout

What?  Firstly, why not Strago?

Was first to call out Sopko, and it didn't have much effect - Soppy's play was a weaksauce attempt to tie himself to me, scumbuddies had to know this and would likely call him on it, but early, so it wouldn't have much effect, before it snowballed into a serious case.

This is possible, but this could go either way.

But if Affinity is, who isn't he fine with?

AndrewRouge for his response, and Kiro and Corwin for their lack of votes.  This isn't really new, however.

[Corwin]

Was hit too hard by life the day before yesterday, considered asking for a modkill but there weren't really enough developments as is. Then yesterday, the day ended before I could dedicate the time to it. In any case, apologies for that.

Need about an hour now to catch up on today, will post afterwards.

[Kiro]

At this point, Alex, Xanth, Kilga, and Andrew should be cleared. I also still think Excal is Town. That leaves Strago, Affinity, and Corwin. If anything though, Strago definitely gives off a Townie vibe, having been on both Sopko and Bardiche wagons in relatively straightforward fashions. Corwin is slightly wavering in my eyes. Possibly because of the sudden drop in activity at the end of Day 3. I find it odd that he was against the Extension and then contributed to the stagnation and didn't post anything else for Day 3. His questioning was alright and he pursued a variety of angles, but in the end, he didn't commit to anything in particular, whether it was me, Andrew, or Bardiche. I'd probably chalk it up to a random emergency although if Affinity isn't the last scum, I could see Corwin being it.

Affinity's major jab against him is the case and vote on Alex for Day 3. He's arguing on the premise that Alex is just coasting by. I can't really disagree with that too much from Alex's Day 3 content, but there's an intent to want to off Alex on Day 3 and not give him a chance to pull out more investigations even though we had good leeway at the time and even better leeway now. Given Alex wasn't killed or even targetted to be killed, Scum were probably banking on that result for Day 3, and it makes sense that they'd bump that along to some extent. But as the pressure on Alex subsided to a wait-and-see scenario and the Bardiche wagon gained steam on Day 3, Scum realized chances of that were shot before they could even begin and Andrew also backed out of the wagon (and is now a confirmed Townie). Affinity was also pretty keen to jump on the ceremonial hammer of Tom, purposely trying to beat out Andrew for it. It's clear your intent was to have a say so the extra effort to do so is suspicious. I also don't get your reasoning for voting me above. I may have issues, but you're not addressing them yourself even if I happen to be the next "easiest" case for a lynch. I'm believing this will wrap it up.

##Vote Affinity

On an aside, as for why some of you think I don't have enough content, I think that's frustrating because I can't seem to defend against it. I post a reasonable amount and the votes I seem to be missing include a wait-and-see approach that never occurred with Sopko and just seeing the Tom wagon at L-1 and before Tom woke up to claim. I take a decent amount of time to type up posts so if it's because I don't get enough content out per minute spent playing Mafia, then that's something I have to work on, but shouldn't be automatically condemned for scumminess.

[Affinity]

there's an intent to want to off Alex on Day 3 and not give him a chance to pull out more investigations even though we had good leeway at the time

Well, this is curious.  How do you differentiate the 'intent to want to off' Alex with the 'intent to simply root out scum as quickly as possible'?  As for good leeway, I simply did not want him (if he was scum) to produce investigations until LyLo, where he magically pulls out scum from his hat, and I severely questioned that.  Also, see the theory I had about what El-Cideon's plan was here.  His death opposed to Alex's was unsettling.

Affinity was also pretty keen to jump on the ceremonial hammer of Tom, purposely trying to beat out Andrew for it.

This, I can't explain, other than the 'novelty' aspect of wanting to hammer for once and that I was pretty much disillusioned with Tom to the point of lynch.  I acknoledge that I could have waited though, but whether or not he would have responded satisfactorily with all his sins chalked up, I'm doubtful.

I also don't get your reasoning for voting me above. I may have issues, but you're not addressing them yourself even if I happen to be the next "easiest" case for a lynch.

My vote was more towards a prod, seeing that you did not answer this point for very very long though it has been hanging in the air via Andrew.  The reasoning is the same as his which I didn't see the need to parrot, and calling my vote unreasonable is rather silly for that matter.  Vote on you stays.

[Corwin]

End of previous day: probably wouldn't have lynched Bardiche. The case on him was pretty much a combination of 'I don't like your case' and LAL. But at least it reminded me that LAL is pretty effective, so there's no reason not to rely on it again in the absence of something better. About the only people I absolutely wouldn't have joined in lynching yesterday were Alex and Xanth, because it would just have been counter-productive.

I suppose I could've gone along with the flow and slapped a vote on Bard when it was fashionable, but as I wasn't really seeing the case at the time I decided against that.

Moving on. Bardiche connections. Off the bat, I see Kilga, for the protracted back and forth which could have either been a smokescreen or ended up in bussing, Excal who was hounded persistently and chose to try and vote for another person at a time people were tired of the day and a fresh target might have diverted the lynch and Affinity for pushing for the other lynch target from the start. There is also myself, for completeness's sake, but I take my student council president duties most seriously and would never be involved in the murder of students and staff.

Of those, I'll accept Kilga as cleared unless someone else claims they were targetted or admits to roleblocking another player this night.

Strago: If we end up approaching LYLO (based on our assumptions of a 3-person scum team) without hitting scum, I believe we should lynch Alex. However, I also happen to think we should not, under any circumstances, lynch Alex before we're at that point. So yes, I'm intending to ignore Bardiche's last words, and just about any words from the point it was clear to him he was going down.

In any case, I'm going to place my vote on Affinity as well. That line he made about Kiro's content being acceptable, which Alex helpfully pointed out, is enough for me to push for answers. Kiro's participation is pretty much on Bardiche's level for me, and I've said as much the previous day.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=2506.msg43443#msg43443
Affinity here tries to explain that line away with:

But if Affinity is, who isn't he fine with?

AndrewRouge for his response, and Kiro and Corwin for their lack of votes.  This isn't really new, however.

I'm sorry, what? This is selective quoting. Here is Alex's entire line (and the point it contains):

- Is alright with Kiro content-wise.  I'm certainly not!  But if Affinity is, who isn't he fine with?

It is made very clear Alex is talking about whose content Affinity is satisfied with, given Kiro gets a pass from Affinity. Affinity then proceeds to edit that line of inquiry and responds to a fragment of it which misleads the reader. It feels like an artificial way to get out of the hole he dug himself into.

##Vote: Affinity

[Affinity]

It is made very clear Alex is talking about whose content Affinity is satisfied with, given Kiro gets a pass from Affinity.

Oh, is it?  My mistake, though I don't remember 'content' being a person (this is a grammatical error on his part and so it's his mistake too).  He should have said "whose content is he not fine with," making it clearer.  I thought he was referring to people.  It was a little convincing, really.

The answer to this is, none.  If there is anyone, it's my content.  But I doubt that thinking that everyone's content is fine is inherently scummy.  While I accept that Kiro's posts usually go unnoticed except for the fact that, well, they are there, I find them alright.  He has given his views on every single case so far and has contributed suggestions to town in so many of his posts that I'm not going to bother linking one.  The thing that he did not, howver, clearly take, were convincing stances on day two and to some extent, three. 

[Ranmilia]

But I doubt that thinking that everyone's content is fine is inherently scummy. 

Actually it is.  There ARE scum in the game, someone IS lying and trying to mislead town and if it isn't you then who is it, I wonder I wonder?

As for Kiro, quantity does not equal content.  "I think these people are scum and town and here's why" is content.  Voting is content.

Nothing much else to say though.  Affinity definitely looks worse right now.

[Affinity]

You in, turn, are saying absolutely nothing at all and are responding to none of the things that I have raised, dropping not even so much as a reason for this.  You're have been a nodding donkey all game, and unfortunately for you, deafness has being added on to your list of symptoms.  So has been your failure to scumhunt.

Again, I repeat.  Why implicate me and not Strago for your second point, and why do you see me as scummy for arguing for your lynch? 

[Affinity]

EBWOP: yesterday?  When you yourself have said what you said?  You have merely quoted my act and judged it skin-deep, so has been your all-encompassing claim of "I don't think it's wrong for me to be lynched". 

As to everyone else, even to those who have their votes on me, Alex's failure to answer questions and his apparent flair for leaving half-hearted points of accusation on me cannot be excused by him dubiously claiming cop.  Note how the head of the nodding donkey moves, both on the Bardiche case, to some extent on the EvilTom case, and mine.  Critical thinking has to be be applied to all the points one agrees with, and cannot be accepted just like "he definitely looks worse now".  The irony of the content-less criticizing people for lack of content shows itself deeply, and it is up to everyone else to at the very least, consider this and respond.  On logical reasons of probability alone, I wouldn't vote him, but the fact that he feels strangely aloof all game makes him, to me, a WIFOM I cannot allow.

##Vote: SirAlex

[Affinity]

EBWOP: ##Unvote, ##Vote: SirAlex

This might seem like an OMGUS, but lynching the deaf is a rather solid thing to do.

[Xanth]

Don't direct the doctor.

Scum must kill and their target is informed of the attack if they survive, as per the rules, so there's no reason to doubt Kilga is clear.

Scum have not been playing well all game.  Sopko barely contested his demise, Bard was pretty obvious, and they haven't even made an effort to stop me even though they know for a fact leaving me alive and unmolested leads straight to their inevitable loss.  It is clear that unless Xanth is actually scum, either he or myself should have been last night's kill target, but as Xanth has pointed out it is now impossible for him to be scum.  I can say this with impunity now because it really does not matter if scum realize it or not, it's a bit too late for them.

I will admit that a bit of metagaming here is creeping into my analysis as I have a really hard time seeing Corwin, Excal and Strago play scum this way.  (No!  Bad Alex!  No meta!)  But as Xanth pointed out it probably does not matter at this point anyhow.