Discworld Mafia is go!

[Yakumo]

On my way out to church now.  Wish I could stick around for the deadline, but my ride's going to leave without me if I don't split now. >_>

[Shale]

Yes, I don't have aa strong opinion one way or the other - they're about equal in my eyes, and my choice wouldn't be much less random than the Hatbotting Cid threatened. If you want a nigh-random decision between the two, I could do that, but I'd rather leave it up to someone who might have seen something I haven't.

[Strago]

So now I'm back from church and surprised to see that the modhammer hasn't come crashing down. And... guh. Since El Cid could come back any minute I don't... really know what more we can do right now. Off the top of my head I would say that... I think Kilga's VSM/Nitori comment was more benign than not and that Shale seems to be twisting things a bit. But even there I'm not sure.

I... I really need to look over Yakumo's posts again, because I'm suddenly getting flashbacks to his excellent Godfather play in FFT Mafia and getting nervous that I don't remember where Yak has stood on most issues this time around. But that's obviously something for tomorrow.

[Sierra]

Hammer, stop talking!

(Yes, I know I'm late).

[Sierra]

Final votecount:

Cmdr_King (3): Strago, Shale, Mad Fnorder, Hunter Sopko
Corwin (1): Otter
Hunter Sopko (0): Corwin, Yakumo
Kilgamayan (1): Bobbin Cranbud
Nitori (6): Anonymous, Mad Fnorder, Taishyr, VSM, Corwin, Strago, Yakumo
Shale (0): Cmdr_King
VSM (5): Kilgamayan, Nitori, Carthrat, Excal, Cmdr_King

Another tense day in Ankh-Morpork. Four deaths in the past twenty-four hours, and where had it got the town? None of the vile extradimensional fiends had been found, and several good citizens were belowground (though to be fair, no one was too heartbroken over that chap with the funny eyes).

At first suspicion mounted regarding the one known as VerySlightlyMad, who had demonstrated a curious reluctance to excercise his ability to vote. Was he hiding something, everyone wondered? Was he unwilling to implicate his fellow conspirators? But at the last moment he made a proclamation to dispell the illwill he'd garnered with his silence: he was none other than the city's ruler, Havelock Vetinari! And to prove it, he employed his considerable social influence to place multiple votes against another suspect! Uncertain how to treat this claim for the time being (sure, he might be who he says he is, but how do they know Vetinari is WHAT he says he is?), the townsfolk fell to arguing amongst themselves, searching for another suspect.

So once again, as the rising summer heat drove tempers to the boiling point, people turned against the quiet ones, the strange ones, the outsiders. Today's sacrifice was none other than a longstanding member of the Watch. A respected officer with a successful career in the force, she nonetheless had the misfortune to be born a werewolf. Sure, years of service to the city were all well and good, and they could ignore her, uh, condition, as long as life strolled along peaceably as always. But at a time like this, with everyone on edge and the city simmering with paranoia, the mob would strike out at anyone who didn't precisely fit.

It wasn't much surprise to the crowd when she morphed into a wolf and lunged at her tormentors. They'd expected that and were ready with the silver. What was somewhat of a surprise was when the beleaguered Seargent sprouted a mass of barbed claws from her head and used them to lash at bystanders. This was more than enough evidence for the mob. As one, they fell upon the creature and bludgeoned it into oblivion.

Nitori, aka Seargent Angua von Uberwald, Werewolf (SCUM, Framer) was lynched!

It is now night two. Submit night actions if you have not done so already.

[Sierra]

The third day of Ankh-Morpork's social crisis dawned brighter than the last. They'd found one of the creatures! And in a senior Watch officer, no less! If they've infiltrated the Watch, who knows where else they could be? Revitalized by the previous evening's success, the citizens resolved to purge the corruption in their midst with renewed vigor. No one would be beyond suspicion, no matter how weak or helpless! No one would be left uninterrogatd, no matter their station!

Unfortunately, one prominent citizen wouldn't need an interrogation. The head of Unseen University, the city's leading authority on magic, was found dead in his office in the morning, the scrying tools on his desk naught but shattered glass now. Did he see too much?

Cmdr_King, aka Mustrum Ridcully, Archchancellor (Town-aligned, Watcher), was killed overnight!

With thirteen alive, it takes seven to lynch.

You have 48 hours until the deadline. Bear in mind that the no-lynch policy is now in effect--if you fail to reach a majority vote by the deadline, no one will be killed. I hate to switch rules mid-game, but it does seem as though this policy provokes more lively discussion and I will stick with it in future games.

[Veryslightlymad]

We got one!

.......Why has no one talked in like, forty five minutes?

[Yakumo]

I'm still thinking, but I'm starting to get worried about one thing.  Cranbud, you had essentially the same reasoning as me at the end of the day(town read on one, null read on the other), yet you did nothing with it, basically preparing to send the decision to Hatbot instead of leaving it in the hands of the mob.  Given that the one you said you were leaning toward turned out to be scum, this makes me wonder if perhaps you were wondering what the response would be if you sent a townie to his end by being the de facto hammer, while not wanting to sacrifice one of your own.  You asked for thoughts over an hour before I dropped my vote, you had plenty of time to do it yourself.  Add this onto your defense of horrible play(saying not voting wasn't that bad) and the fact that you have somehow managed to avoid putting out any solid opinions about anyone that wasn't already gone, about to be(EvilTom) or was lurking, and you're creeping up my suspicious list.

[Otter]

Well now.  I didn't think the arguments against Nitori were incredibly persuasive, but I bought the roleclaims from CK and VSM (particularly VSM's, although I guess CK's claim has been proven now) so I'm glad he wound up on the block if they were the alternatives.  I think we got lucky with him actually turning up scum (Framer, too!), but hey, I'm not complaining.

Final votecount:

Cmdr_King (3): Strago, Shale, Mad Fnorder, Hunter Sopko
Corwin (1): Otter
Hunter Sopko (0): Corwin, Yakumo
Kilgamayan (1): Bobbin Cranbud
Nitori (6): Anonymous, Mad Fnorder, Taishyr, VSM, Corwin, Strago, Yakumo
Shale (0): Cmdr_King
VSM (5): Kilgamayan, Nitori, Carthrat, Excal, Cmdr_King

Since I'm pretty sure of VSM's innocence right now, it seems obvious that scum would be DESPERATE to tip the balance his way (and knock out a double-voter, although this claim didn't come up until afterwards) rather than lose Nitori, a scumbuddy.  This makes me think I could probably find some scum in the VSM train; not ALL of them, since they obviously wouldn't want to be that conspicuous about it, but some.  So let's home in on that list: Kilga, Nitori, Rat, Excal, CK.  Two of these suckers are dead (Nitori, scum, and CK, town watcher).  That leaves Kilga, Rat, and Excal.  Is there some scum in there?  It seems probable enough to me, and I've had my eye on Excal in particular for a while.

While I'm at it, let me try to break down what I think of the scum's game plan when they realize that one of their own is getting train'd.  The first order of business is to find someone ELSE who's drawing suspicion and put down some more pressure on them.  Hopefully you'll outweigh the train on your guy, and even if you don't, odds are you're gonna get a helpful roleclaim out of that which will help you target your NKs in the future.  It seems apparent to me that both CK and VSM were innocents and possible victims of this scum strategy; although VSM ultimately came closer to saving Nitori for 'em, the CK push did get a roleclaim which probably led to his nightkilling.  Makes PERFECT sense that they'd knock him out; with our cop dead, a watcher is one of the few remaining tools we have for finding confirmed scum.  As such, I'm gonna keep in mind not just Kilga, Rat, and Excal, but also the later CK voters: Shale, Fnorder, and Sopko.  Is this a big accusation thing where I'm saying all of you are scum!!?  No.  But my basic suspicion level has been ratcheted up a notch for all of you, and I freely share this fact along with my reasoning.  In case you're wondering, Strago isn't on there because he looks better to me; he was the first voter, for one thing (it's easier for scum to build on someone else rather than start something new, if they're trying to compete in terms of size against another train), and for another thing he withdrew and voted for Nitori.  Scumbus isn't impossible, but looking at the timing of things, I'm -more- inclined to trust him, although obviously I'm not -sure.-

Why didn't the single votes for Corwin or Kilgamayan make them attractive targets for scum focus in the same way?  Well, maybe they thought there was more momentum on CK and VSM, and that's probably true.  Or, and I'm not saying anything for sure here, one or both of these made less attractive substitute train options because they're scum themselves.

The other thing I want to talk about is Yakumo.  My initial response was "He came in at the very end of a tiebreak and chose to lynch Nitori, a scum, rather than someone I'm almost positive is town!  He's gotta be innocent!!"  This is indeed possible, but I had better mention that this is a decently big game, and sacrificing one scum (who's getting lots of attention already) is NOT a fatal move for our opponents; it's especially great to build up "definite townies" like that in games where the cop's already dead, ie this one.  It's rare to see such a perfect proof of anyone's innocence happen naturally.  We're all thankful to him for getting rid of Nitori for us there, and he's quite possibly town, but what I'm saying is that he's not off the table yet.

So, okay, let me finish with a really simple question directed at the VSM voters; CK hadn't really proven his identity, so I'll go easy on his train for right now.  Kilgamayan!  Carthrat!  Excal!  Why'd you keep your vote on VSM?  For what firm reason did you suspect doublevoting scum rather than the much more common doublevoting townie?  Please justify your vote, and while I'm at it, let me celebrate the new "Town must hammer" rule by voting for the one out of you that's rubbed me the wrongest so far.  ##VOTE: Excal

[Yakumo]

Bah, forgot to throw in the vote.  Thanks for the reminder, Otter.

##Vote: Bobbin Cranbud

[Otter]

Oh yeah, and in a couple hours I leave for school.  I have to pack in the meantime, so this is likely my last post till I get in my dorm (late tonight) and get my laptop all plugged in there.

[Bobbin Cranbud]

I'm still thinking, but I'm starting to get worried about one thing.  Cranbud, you had essentially the same reasoning as me at the end of the day(town read on one, null read on the other), yet you did nothing with it, basically preparing to send the decision to Hatbot instead of leaving it in the hands of the mob.  Given that the one you said you were leaning toward turned out to be scum, this makes me wonder if perhaps you were wondering what the response would be if you sent a townie to his end by being the de facto hammer, while not wanting to sacrifice one of your own.  You asked for thoughts over an hour before I dropped my vote, you had plenty of time to do it yourself.  Add this onto your defense of horrible play(saying not voting wasn't that bad) and the fact that you have somehow managed to avoid putting out any solid opinions about anyone that wasn't already gone, about to be(EvilTom) or was lurking, and you're creeping up my suspicious list.

I was writing my 'well, I guess nobody is going to vote, so here's the Nitori hammer...' vote for Nitori and the board informed me of your vote.  Since I was thinking it was hammer and we were supposed to stop talking, I didn't bother posting said vote.

Anyway, I'm just as happy to have left my vote on Kilga, who still seems the most suspicious to me outside of lurkers.

Speaking of which, I find it odd that you're apparently deliberately ignoring the rather prominent bullseye I had on Kilga over the VSM thing.  Not to mention the fact that I wasn't on the EvilTom train, save to acknowledge its existence.

Also speaking of which:

##VOTE: Kilgamayan

As for not voting being "horrible play" - do you really want to get into a playstyle argument right now?  I believe Otter and I had this out very early in SuikoMafia; my preference is to vote only for people who seem suspicious and use other means, such as questions and FoS, to draw out conversation.  If VSM didn't suspect anyone, especially as the owner of a DOUBLEVOTE, why the heck should he have tipped his hand by throwing his vote around?

[Yakumo]

When you said that, you had no idea that VSM had a doublevote.  And I do totally disagree with your assessment that not voting is a good thing to do when you're a townie.  I already told you why, if you care to dispute that take it to the other thread.  The vote for Kilga had virtually no support to it at all, this does not conflict with my assessment that you weren't putting out solid opinions about people.  In fact, it paints you as a hypocrite as you just said you vote only for someone who seems suspicious, yet you never really explained to my satisfaction WHY he was suspicious.  As for the fact that you were typing your vote when I posted mine, even ignoring the fact that it could be a blatant lie, why didn't you do it afterward?  The hammer didn't happen until significantly later, and you left the possibility of it going back to a tie rather than vote for the person who, supposedly, you were willing to vote for.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2303#msg2303

For reference, this is Cranbud's post on the Kilga issue.  I don't consider this exactly a "solid opinion".  He specifically says that he really doesn't have much of anything at all to go on, in fact.

[Otter]

Actually, while I'm still here, could I trouble Bobbin to give us a recap of why Kilga is his choice right now, in more detail than "he's the most suspicious" maybe?  I'm sort of having trouble remembering the argument, although I guess I should go look.  He seems to be doggedly sticking to the exact same vote he hung out with yesterday, as if the lynch and NK we just witnessed told us nothing (in my opinion, they could tell us a whole lot, hence the big ol' post I just made) and changed nothing.  Besides, if he wants to dispel claims from Yakumo about him lacking "solid opinions about anyone that wasn't already gone," maybe some convincing analysis on Kilga would do the trick?  I say he should give it a shot anyhow so we can see what he's thinking about.

[Otter]

Or Yakumo could ninja me with the link and raise some of the same points I was going after.  Touché, my dear Yakko.

[Strago]

Well! That's certainly something. That... hmm. That's really a pretty wildly mixed bag, there. For all that it's badass that we nailed scum, it's sort of annoying that we managed to take out a Framer when we've already lost our Cop. And now we've lost another extremely powerful investigative role... but the silver lining, I suppose, is that we don't need to spend any more time hashing out our suspicions of the Commander, may he rest in peace. So yeah, could be worse, could be better, now we just need to figure out what's next.

That's an interesting catch that Yakko's made regarding why Cranbud defended VSM so often; Cranbud would indeed have had no way of knowing that VSM was a doublevoter until after some of his early defense of VSM, unless of course they were scumbuddies. And I don't know what his absence from any of yesterday's final three could mean. He says he was going to vote Nitori, sure, but... well, you can say anything, after the fact. Interesting.

Gah. More after dinner.

[Carthrat]

I said it earlier, but doublevoting doesn't seem like a role to me that's necessarily restricted to town. I really hate using logic like 'it's been this way in previous mafia games; surely it would be the same here?!'. I would also comment to Otter than as far as I go, my vote for VSM came about before I think anyone could perceive Nitori as being in serious danger. Both he and VSM were at 2, for what that's worth. In summary: VSM had been playing somewhat lurkerish, and when he actually came out to speak, very little was said apart from a somewhat weak defence and entails to get other people to talk more.

Nitori getting bussed seems likely to me, as he didn't seem a terribly effective player and framer is an apparently useless role at the moment. I don't think Corwin is responsible (and I was going to be all set to poke at him today as well) due to the timing of his vote; it came at a time when the main candidates were Cmdr, Nitori, and VSM, with a slight lead for VSM. It would've been really, really easy to get away with a vote for either of them as opposed to Nitori. That leaves Strago and Yakumo, both of whom I've felt relatively comfortable with. So, dudes, why'd you vote for Nitori and not your original targets, again? (Yep, I'm asking why you voted for someone who turned out to be scum!)

I still feel that Kilga and I had justified votes, and I also feel that Kilga was playing relatively strongly and in a town-like manner. We already know there was one scum vote on VSM- Nitori's- and one thing I know that's generally uncommon is scum voting back-to-back. Therefore, I would like to hear what Bobbin's got to say here, too, given that I feel attacks on VSM were justified at the time, and that it's odd to be so firm in your defence of him.

[Bobbin Cranbud]

When you said that, you had no idea that VSM had a doublevote.

True.  My position is a philosophical rather than specific one.

And I do totally disagree with your assessment that not voting is a good thing to do when you're a townie.  I already told you why, if you care to dispute that take it to the other thread.

Fair enough; maybe after this game?

The vote for Kilga had virtually no support to it at all, this does not conflict with my assessment that you weren't putting out solid opinions about people.  In fact, it paints you as a hypocrite as you just said you vote only for someone who seems suspicious, yet you never really explained to my satisfaction WHY he was suspicious.  As for the fact that you were typing your vote when I posted mine, even ignoring the fact that it could be a blatant lie, why didn't you do it afterward?  The hammer didn't happen until significantly later, and you left the possibility of it going back to a tie rather than vote for the person who, supposedly, you were willing to vote for.

As I said in the post immediately following what I took to be your hammer, I thought that was the end of the day.  I exited the board afterwards and didn't get back on until nightfall.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2303#msg2303

For reference, this is Cranbud's post on the Kilga issue.  I don't consider this exactly a "solid opinion".  He specifically says that he really doesn't have much of anything at all to go on, in fact.

Kilgamayan went after VSM *extremely* aggressively, doing so in a way I considered strange.  I didn't understand why he singled VSM out at that point, out of all the possible targets for what was, in essence, a vote against lurking.  I mentioned before that VSM had more posts, no fewer votes and, to my mind, at least as much content as several other players who Kilga chose to basically ignore.

If you don't think going, as I see it, gonzo-aggro after a person who seems to me Town, on the lurking issue when there were more clear-cut lurkers, is a 'solid case?'  Well, I don't know how to respond to that.  It was by far the strongest case I had, and it still is (see below).

Even after VSM's roleclaim and proven use of his power, Kilga kept his vote on him.  Scum could have a doublevoter, but it seems more common for Town.

This leads into the reason I'm *keeping* my vote on Kilga, to answer Otter's question:

IMO, the roleclaims and night results DO reflect badly on Kilga.  He left his vote, which Otter suggests is his main, and very understandable, reason for voting for Excal.  He also said he would, given second choice, vote for CK (now proven as Town) over Nitori (now proven as Scum).  Since I was already suspicious of Kilga, he leaps to the head of my suspects list among the VSM voters.

[Otter]

In the middle of packing, but -again- I'll jump in real quick and clarify that my choice of Excal as a vote isn't restricted to the VSM vote thing.  Maybe it's just me, but it totally seems like Excal's slid into the background of this game, and whenever I notice that happening, I get automatically suspicious.  Can I point to any one post and show this happening?  No, so maybe you won't know at all what I'm talking about here.  I wish I could define it more rigorously, but I can't, except to say that I'd really like to hear something really solid out of him sooner than later.

[Yakumo]

I don't like it, but I'm the only one around, apparently, that fits that description, and I'm inclined to believe VSM, and have no read at all on Nitori.  So...

##Unvote: HunterSopko, ##Vote: Nitori

Why did I vote for Nitori?  Exactly what I said.  I believed VSM, I did not have any sort of read on Nitori.  I thought that going for a possibility was better than going for someone I believed was a townie, and I did NOT want it to be left to random chance.

[Taishyr]

(Gut + suspicious move) vote validated. In trade, we... lost the Tracker (Watcher, whichever, I always think of tracker as that). Shaiya. At least we're one closer to having them all gone, I suppose, but I dislike losing that role in general.

And now Excal, Bobbin Cranbud and Kilgamayan are at the forefront of discussion... Lemme look this over, as I've have vaguely town reads on Excal, and flux ones on Bobbin Cranbud and Kilgamayan. Also wanna look at voting patterns for day 2 and see if I can track down any oddness there, but I'm thinking the events of late day 2 (and day 2 in general) will be of the most use in tracking down more scum. Give me a bit of time, tho; finals tomorrow mean I'll be hammering my books at the same time, so my response to this will be slow.

[Shale]

Speaking of Cranbud and Kilga, I'd like to hear what other people have to say about the Kilga post I focused on yesterday/this morning (depending on your definition of "day"). I really do think it doesn't look good, but other viewpoints would be nice, and there wasn't a lot of time to hash over somebody who wasn't on the short list with deadline looming.

Other than that, I said before that Cranbud was pretty inactive yesterday, focusing exclusively on Kilga and VSM, and staying silent during that final runup doesn't make him look any better in that regard.

[Strago]

Nitori getting bussed seems likely to me, as he didn't seem a terribly effective player and framer is an apparently useless role at the moment. I don't think Corwin is responsible (and I was going to be all set to poke at him today as well) due to the timing of his vote; it came at a time when the main candidates were Cmdr, Nitori, and VSM, with a slight lead for VSM. It would've been really, really easy to get away with a vote for either of them as opposed to Nitori. That leaves Strago and Yakumo, both of whom I've felt relatively comfortable with. So, dudes, why'd you vote for Nitori and not your original targets, again? (Yep, I'm asking why you voted for someone who turned out to be scum!)

When I switched my votes, we were really getting down to the wire, and I was under the (mistaken) impression that we needed to get a majority in order to lynch. Since I'm not a fan of the 'No Lynch' idea right now, I went with Nitori because

A) I felt like he had the best chance out of the three of actually getting the noose, and...
B) Looking at who was voting for the three, the folks trying to axe Nitori looked better, for the most part, than the ones trying to axe CK or VSM.

My original - and pretty much stream of consciousness - reasoning is with my vote post back on page 22, if you want it pretty much uncensored as I was thinking it at the moment.

Shale: As far as your point against Kilga goes... I'm actually not sure how much I buy it. I think there may be a mountain-->molehill situation going on here. Specifically, I think you may be latching onto this possible misstep of Kilga's because he's looked somewhat spotty and you thought you might be able to tear him down because of it. I'm not sure I'd think this were it not for the fact that you didn't take a shot at me even though I said basically the same thing as Kilga before he said it. If you were indeed scum, this would be because Kilga had beeped on far more public suspicion radar screens that myself, making him an easier target to garner support for lynching. Now I'm not entirely sure that any of this is the case, but it's why I'm hesitant about having your back against Kilga at the moment.

More as it occurs to me.

[Strago]

Oooookay, Fnorder voted for Nitori back on page 17, way before it was cool. Since then, though, almost all that he's done is make a very brief post switching his vote to CK. So one apparently good thing paired with what looks like a fairly bad thing later, with a grand lack of content for many many pages. That equals... probably a null read at best, to me. Just confusing, really. Basically I want Fnorder to talk a whole heck of a lot more at the moment. Stop hiding behind that delightful PAL avatar!

[Shale]

Fair enough. It was something I noticed under pressure, when I was paying more attention to each individual post than I was earlier on, and it seemed to fit with the disproportionate attack he'd been making on VSM - attempts to turn small issues into lynch-worthy ones.