Discworld Mafia is go!

[Corwin]

Clarification, I'm asking for a the player's name here, not role or anything that could identify their allegience or importance to town.

[Shale]

Either that or they're both townie rolecops, I guess, but that does seem unlikely.

Probably goes without saying, but a response from Cranbud would be nice, here.

[Strago]

I also find it notable that Shale has never mentioned any suspicion of Nitori at all.

Except for the FoS I mentioned above, plus the point (implicit, I know, but still there) that he and VSM were roughly on equal footing with me? Neither one was all that high on the list - half the point of posting those names was to point out that none of them were Nitori or VSM - but I didn't see him as totally clean. I guess I should have talked more about Nitori, but there didn't seem to be all that much to talk about.
[/quote]

Yeah, that's my mistake. That sentence should have concluded with, "before your not particularly strongly-worded FoS on him." An FoS of about two lines, which you never followed up on. And then, after I moved my vote from CK to Nitori, making the day a 3-5-5 CK-Nitori-VSM votesplit with just a few hours remaining, you started to go after Kilga. There was no real chance of Kilga getting a majority at that point - and you say you don't FoS much, but you did there - but there might have been a chance of drawing a vote off Nitori and putting VSM in the lead without necessarily putting the screws to VSM yourself, an act that would have looked especially bad if it didn't work and Nitori flipped scum despite your efforts. Hmm.

And wooooooooah. That's a deucedly interesting roleclaim from Yakko, that is. Because it... it really doesn't make sense as a scum stratagem, given that if Cranbud gets lynched and flips town we're sure to immediately eviscerate Yakumo. 1:1 is not a favorable ratio for the Dungeon Dimension. I second Corwin's query as to whether you discovered anything useful Night 1, but... at the moment this seems like by far the best thing we've got going.

[Strago]

Yeah, two townie rolecops when we've already confirmed that we had a Cop and a Watcher? Not at all likely, says I.

[Strago]

Also: stupid quote tags not being able to Edit posts grumble grumble

[Mad Fnorder]

Brief answer to Corwin- I FoS'd because I hadn't looked that close at the recent stuff like comparison, and a vote might make me look like an idiot rather than tentative, like I am.

re: Yakko-Hum. Well then! I had a hunch that Bobbin had some sort of investigative power, but I was actually thinking him Town- this was based on my theory of thinking VSM was town as well. It's entirely possible he took a look at one of Kilga/VSM night one and was swinging based on what he saw. If Bobbin's bad, that makes me doubt my VSM theory, and generally turns everything I thought upside down. This could also be a multi-layered gambit to pin VSM to the wall the other day, but... argh, brain melty. Going out to buy books.

[Yakumo]

The house being unlocked thing is both flavor and an explanation for why I can't check someone that isn't using their power that night.  I would prefer to keep my first target secret for now, there's a small possibility of catching someone lying. 

Also, yes, that's the general idea.  We're both Rolecops and he's probably scum, or I'm lying to you to kill one person and I'm scum, or I'm telling the truth but I'm scum trying to deprive you of info.  Any of those is still 1:1, though.

[Yakumo]

I'll say this much: it didn't tell me enough to say they were Town or scum, or I'd share the info.

[Corwin]

I won't press you about it at this time, then, Yakumo.

In fact, I've said what I wanted to so far. Waiting on an answer/clarification from Shale about a quote of his I used here: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2594#msg2594 . Can't do much there until I get one.

Already got Fnorder to talk (but he better talk more by the time I get to work tomorrow and glance over the thread; there're bound to be more developments, and my vote stays on him for the time being to remind him of his civic duty). Otter is again silent, again with an excuse, but this is hardly the time to pursue him. Kilga's case depends on Bobbin and Shale commenting; Shale with the clarification I asked for, and Bobbin with his inevitable defense(s). No more posts from me till I'm at work (my) tomorrow, it seems.

[Shale]

Oh, sorry, Yakko's claim grabbed my attention. Yes, that's the post I was talking about.

[Excal]

Now that is an interesting little tidbit to wake up to.  It's certainly consistent with Yakko's behaviour since Day 3 began, as well as the fact that Cranbud has been acting somewhat shifty.  I'd like exercise some caution at the moment, as false roleclaims have gotten us burned before.  But I just can't see for the life of me why he'd want to.  Assuming 5 scum, that'd leave them at 4 left, with 9 town.  Stringing us along by trading 1 for 1 isn't a good deal for them, even if we assume that Yakko isn't their rolecop.  Especially since it raises the question of why they wouldn't just quietly off Cranbud in the night.

So, that does make me inclined to believe Yakumo's claim.  And given the number of investigative roles we have out there so far, this means that we probably don't have two rolecops.  And...  yeah.  That paired with his out of nowhere defense of VSM, and his lack of action during the tie break, does make him look very bad.

I'll still wait to see what he says, but for now, I'm leaning towards Yakko.


Next up, a few more questions.

Fnorder, it's great that you're posting some more.  But I'm curious as to why you made no mention of Shale in your list of people you had thoughts on.  He was active during the morning after, and posted at the same time you did.  As well, he was active and waffling during the crucial tie break stage, preferring to sit back and let Hatbot decide, rather than risk leaving a paper trail of his activities like a good townie should.

Shale, I think my main question for you that you haven't adressed yet is this.  Why is it that, despite saying it's the job of town to leave a paper trail, that you were willing to let the final decision of who to be lynched remain in the hands of Hatbot, which is a fine way to get someone lynched without leaving any trail at all?

[Excal]

...huh.  Since that one sentence by itself can be so very easily and wonderfully misconstrued, when I say leaning towards Yakko, I mean leaning towards believing him.

[Mad Fnorder]

Crap. I missed someone, didn't I? *checks notes* Yeah I... didn't write ANYTHING down about him. Let me review and get back to you. >_>

[Shale]

I did leave a paper trail. I voted for the person I thought was most likely to be scum. If I'd voted for Nitori or VSM at the endgame it would have been with the note that I was just voting to break the tie but didn't really think either one was more likely to be scum than the other. That would be a better paper trail?

[Excal]

Honestly, with that much time left?  Yeah.  I'd rather leave it in the hands of someone, anyone with intuition than that soulless bot.  I mean, the mind is fairly deep, and I suspect that, so long as all the randomness was inside your head, even your baseless choice would lead to something more weighted to help town than a flat out 50/50.

[Shale]

I think you trust my instincts more than I do. Bear in mind that, given a tiebreaker between Nitori and CK, I'd have picked CK. And look where that would have gotten us. I've had similar strokes of genius in the past (remember FFT, when I was 100% behind recruiting Yakko to the mason lodge? And killing Tonfa?), and as a result I am not inclined to let my instincts determine whether somebody lives or dies. Since that decision would have been pure guesswork...

[Mad Fnorder]

In review, I'm not sure I can castigate Shale so harshly just for pushing for votes at the deadline, but there's still some strangeness to not voting but pushing for more votes. Not that I don't empathize with not wanting to commit without evidence, and I assume Shale would have voted had it been an issue of "Use it or Lose it" for the Lynch. So... yeah. No  glaring read one way or another there.

[Strago]

Hmm. In general, people who have a bit more experience than I, how common is it for Rolecoppery's success to rely on the target having used their power the night of the investigation? I'm still pretty sure I believe Yakko, here, but this detail is gnawing at me ever so slightly.

[Veryslightlymad]

You know, Cranbud's strong defense of me might actually be indicative of his having investigated my role previously, come to think of it. I withheld a little tidbit about that, because I thought it might pay off later: I also have limited Governership. That is to say, if I don't want my 2 votes anymore, I can save someone from being lynched. (Part of why I was so nonchalant at the beginning of yesterday and then collapsed toward the end of the day was being informed that I could not save myself from lynching. This was not clear to me at first. Yesterday I figured, "Well, worst thing is, they lynch me, I unlynch me, and it's a wash." Except that's not actually true.)

What do you think the odds are that, by saving me from certain doom, he might figure that I'd read him as strong town and save him from a lynch sometime down the road?

[Strago]

Actually, the more I think about it, the more the slightly limited Rolecop makes sense given what our townies have already flipped, since a full Watcher, a full Cop and a full Rolecop is quite an array of roles. Particularly if we've got a Doc somewhere in the mix as well. Yyyyeah, the more I think about it the more I'm inclined to trust Yakko and put some real pressure on Cranbud to provide some sort of explanation.

... and VSM's revelation of mini-Governorship makes his role look even more like something the scum wouldn't have, and his theory on Cranbud looks pretty sound. Well.

##UNVOTE: Shale
##VOTE: Bobbin Cranbud

[Yakumo]

I would assume it's a flavor thing.  I haven't read many of the books, but I have seen references to Nobby wandering into an unlocked store, nicking a couple small things, then telling the owner to lock up, and of course those things were gone before Nobby arrived.  Not the sort of thing you can do when people are at home, which is the message I was told I would recieve if the person I checked wasn't actively using a power when I did it.

[Strago]

Yeah, so it's definitely a limited sort of Rolecop since it doesn't seem like it would even be successfully able to identify Vanillas. That makes the claim look pretty solid to me, based on my own general feelings about what game balance ought to look like.

[Kilgamayan]

Kilga- Tons of effort in their posts. quotes collated by page, discussing the cases on people- but he's done case reviews and then never gone back to them. And then there's the VSM piledrive. It's entirely possible to be helpful in that manner without saying actually much. It could be smoke. Suspicion rising.

I'm not sure what you mean or what you're getting at in saying I've "never gone back" to my reviews. I haven't yet voted for someone I reviewed, sure, but my CK review was at least full in my mind when trying to decide if I should stick with VSM or not, and the ones for Excal and Corwin are still in my mind as I type (I kinda tossed CPU's out the window once you showed up, but it wasn't much of a review anyway).

Just because I haven't said anything about them recently doesn't mean I forgot they were there. Believe me, I'm not going to spend time doing that sort of thing and then not remember I did it. >_>

I'll form a more solid opinion about Yakumo vs. Cranbud once Cranbud actually says something, but right now I lean toward Yakumo, as

- Yakumo was the tiebreaker vote that kicked Nitori off the island (why sell out a fellow scum if you're going to stick yourself in a 1-1 sitch the very next day?)
- Cranbud attacking me for trying to generate info in a game with a decided lack of info (as he admitted) is puzzling
- Probably a little OMGUS >_>

[Sierra]

Update!

Bobbin Cranbud (2): Yakumo, Strago
Excal (1): Otter
Mad Fnorder (1): Excal
Kilgamayan (1): Bobbin Cranbud
Shale (1): Taishyr, Strago

With thirteen alive, it takes seven to lynch.

There are 23.5 hours until the deadline.

[Kilgamayan]

Actually, you know what? I've been mulling over Yakumo voting Nitori and trying to WIFOM the question I posed to see if there's a "because that's what they WANT you to think!" possibility, and I simply can't find one.

Let's say, hypothetically, that Yakumo is scum and Cranbud is human. Barring some out-of-this-world scum power role, the ONLY reason Yakumo would vote Nitori would be to gain credibility as town. Yakumo's credibility builds and now we have this 1-1. The instant Cranbud flips town Yakumo's credibility gets shot to hell and Nitori's sacrifice was completely pointless. There are two ways that would be much better to go about gaining a scum advantage:

- Drudge up some reason to vote for VSM over Nitori, and then pull the 1-1 today to knock Cranbud out as well. Scum takes one loss but we waste 2 towns in the process, both of which are very highly likely to have useful power roles.
- Vote Nitori to gain credibility and then simply shut up, because no one was looking at Yakumo as a solid lynch candidate (at least not publicly). Scum takes one loss but gain some credibility in the process.

If someone wants to poke some holes in this they're more than welcome to (Lord knows I've been wrong enough in this game to last me a while), but I simply can't see a GOOD reason to take out a teammate and then kill yourself almost immediately thereafter.

##Vote: Bobbin Cranbud