Alright, now that I'm back from work, I suppose it's time to get some posts out there that I've been stalling on for a little too long. Namely, my own complete look at the end of Day 2, and my response to Fnorder.
So, let's start with Fnorder. This'll be short, simple, and brief. It'll also be my last comment unless something new comes up. Why? Because his last response isn't trying to refute me, it's simply an iteration that he's town, and that he won't provide any other service to the town besides defend himself. There's nothing I can say to that, because it's the equivalent of saying nothing. So, unless someone manages to look scummier than him, I'm going to leave my vote where it is.
Now, moving on. There's this matter of Day 2. Why is it so important? Because it seems to keep on coming back to haunt me. I've got four votes on me, and three of them seem to stem directly from that one vote. So, let's start off by taking a look at what that count was, shall we?
Final votecount:
Cmdr_King (3): Strago, Shale, Mad Fnorder, Hunter Sopko
Corwin (1): Otter
Hunter Sopko (0): Corwin, Yakumo
Kilgamayan (1): Bobbin Cranbud
Nitori (6): Anonymous, Mad Fnorder, Taishyr, VSM, Corwin, Strago, Yakumo
Shale (0): Cmdr_King
VSM (5): Kilgamayan, Nitori, Carthrat, Excal, Cmdr_King
Alright, so of the eleven people still alive, we had all eleven of us with a vote count here. CK had Strago voting him for pretty good reason, with two votes in rapid succession from Shale and Fnorder, and then Sopko came in after his role claim, and it was a claim of Tracker, which is not only almost certainly town, but also a hard one to pull off because you can't be sure who'd be looking at who, or acting on what. Very easy to get caught up in a lie.
VSM had, of the presently living, Kilgamayan, Carthrat, and myself voting for him. He also had the scum, Nitori voting for him.
Nitori had, voting for him, four of the presently living. Taishyr, Corwin, Strago, and VSM.
Finally, you have Otter, who was sitting off in the corner, voting for Corwin.
Now, ever since then, the theory goes, that the scum had at least two people on VSM. Otter, hasn't really moved too far beyond that supposition, all told. Otter has been the leading proponent of the two scum on VSM theory, and VSM has seemed to have picked it up himself. Now, let's look at Otter's reasoning for this theory though, shall we?
Since I'm pretty sure of VSM's innocence right now, it seems obvious that scum would be DESPERATE to tip the balance his way (and knock out a double-voter, although this claim didn't come up until afterwards) rather than lose Nitori, a scumbuddy. This makes me think I could probably find some scum in the VSM train; not ALL of them, since they obviously wouldn't want to be that conspicuous about it, but some. So let's home in on that list: Kilga, Nitori, Rat, Excal, CK. Two of these suckers are dead (Nitori, scum, and CK, town watcher). That leaves Kilga, Rat, and Excal. Is there some scum in there? It seems probable enough to me, and I've had my eye on Excal in particular for a while.
While I'm at it, let me try to break down what I think of the scum's game plan when they realize that one of their own is getting train'd. The first order of business is to find someone ELSE who's drawing suspicion and put down some more pressure on them. Hopefully you'll outweigh the train on your guy, and even if you don't, odds are you're gonna get a helpful roleclaim out of that which will help you target your NKs in the future. It seems apparent to me that both CK and VSM were innocents and possible victims of this scum strategy; although VSM ultimately came closer to saving Nitori for 'em, the CK push did get a roleclaim which probably led to his nightkilling. Makes PERFECT sense that they'd knock him out; with our cop dead, a watcher is one of the few remaining tools we have for finding confirmed scum. As such, I'm gonna keep in mind not just Kilga, Rat, and Excal, but also the later CK voters: Shale, Fnorder, and Sopko. Is this a big accusation thing where I'm saying all of you are scum!!? No. But my basic suspicion level has been ratcheted up a notch for all of you, and I freely share this fact along with my reasoning. In case you're wondering, Strago isn't on there because he looks better to me; he was the first voter, for one thing (it's easier for scum to build on someone else rather than start something new, if they're trying to compete in terms of size against another train), and for another thing he withdrew and voted for Nitori. Scumbus isn't impossible, but looking at the timing of things, I'm -more- inclined to trust him, although obviously I'm not -sure.-
I've bolded the part I felt needed emphasis. Namely, that what Otter's working off here is a supposition of what the scum would do. Specifically, he's saying, that in this situation the scum would try to find a reason, any reason, to protect their own. Though, he's also saying at the end that a scum bus isn't impossible, after ignoring looking at the people who'd be a part of that. The other interesting thing is his claim that the scum would want to prevent a train on their own. Once more I ask, what train? Heck, what does he even mean desperate? Cranbud, confirmed scum, DID NOT VOTE in the tiebreaker, even though he could have readily have stepped in and broken the tie. Yes, he would have had to tap dance, and he may have gone down anyways. But Nitori wouldn't have been confirmed, and it would be one more non-scum dead. So, obviously the scum weren't desperate to avoid having Nitori axed.
Another odd thing is, what train? Nitori was at two votes, neither of them was very strong, either. VSM and CK were both in the same situation, and arguments were actively being made against them, while the votes on Nitori were effectively LAL votes. Not to mention votes on a few other assorted people. That's not a panic situation, that's a situation where dead weight is about to get cut off for you. Especially given his role was next to useless at this point, and Nitori is generally one of those people who're quick to go. Otter claims the scum would be quick to defend him? I'd suggest that they'd sooner wish to be the ones to gain credit for his capture.
So, I'm going to engage in some speculation here. Sure, it's a bit WIFOMy, but then again, so was Otter's original speculation. And if it's good enough to get me this close to a noose, then it's good enough for me to dabble in myself. I'd suggest that, in fact, Nitori was set up to be bussed. That he was the lone scum to vote for VSM, because he was to do it in a way to grab attention and allow people to reasonably vote for him. This would distract from a scum slipping in a vote for CK, to try and hide out there. Shale, Fnorder are Sopko are all excellent candidates for that, as they voted pre roleclaim. Sopko, oddly enough, is less likely as he came in after the role claim, and so his only purpose there, if he was scum, would be to have a safe haven. We also know that Cranbud was trying to hide by defending VSM, and voting his tormentor, which means that Otter could similarily have tried to hide, were he scum, by voting for a random third party.
But, the real scrutiny should go to the Nitori voters. Sopko, started the arguments for CK, and then cut out after the role claim came in, the only one to do so. Taishyr, even though he jumped in before going for Nitori was cool, could also have been doing it to start a bus, and try and gain credit for it. VSM, I think looks the best of them, as he was under fire and made this vote in self-defense. Though, again, if he is a scum aligned double voter, then that moment where he turned the tides onto Nitori could have been planned ahead of time. And then there's Corwin, who came in and tied everything up.
You have to admit, it'd be a good place to be the morning after. If Nitori wasn't bussed, then you weren't part of the crew that brought down VSM. And if he was, well then you were part of the crew that managed to catch scum.
And finally, one last point. VSM, in your big look at the people who voted for you? You missed the Rat. I'd just like to say that, as long as you're gunning for me, you might as well look at all the other options first.
