Author Topic: Discworld Mafia is go!  (Read 115081 times)

Veryslightlymad

  • CONCEPTUALIZATION [Challenging: Success]
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1141
  • Shitposts are a type of art for webforums
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #800 on: January 15, 2008, 04:31:05 AM »
I don't see how hammering and then killing SOPKO is a better plan than not hammering and killing ME as far as Kilga (Or Strago) is concerned.

Assuming Kilga is scum. Excal dies and Sopko dies.

1)Kilga -> Scum
2)VSM -> Town, 2 votes
3)Strago -> Town
4)Carth -> Town
5)Taish -> Town

VS

1)Kilga -> Scum
2)Excal -> Scum, Godfather
3)Sopko -> Town
4)Carth -> Town
5)Strago -> Town
6)Taish -> Town

Assuming Excal is STILL the target of everyone, Carth also looks bad. Hell, he looks way worse than Kilga does. (See my previous comment) So who dies? Well, not Sopko, because he can't tell anyone anything useful. Excal might. I'm guessing you or Strago do.

1)Kilga -> Scum
2)Sopko -> Town. "Kilga is the Librarian"
3)Carth -> Town. Looks VERY SUSPICIOUS NOW
4)Taish -> Town (Looks like I offed Strago)

LYLO and Carth looks most suspicious of all

Veryslightlymad

  • CONCEPTUALIZATION [Challenging: Success]
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1141
  • Shitposts are a type of art for webforums
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #801 on: January 15, 2008, 04:32:53 AM »
Reasoning is flawed. I missed a step. Sopko would CLEAR YOU, but have to work on someone else. Obviously, you die where Strago does in my scenario. All that happens is there's LESS confusion.

Veryslightlymad

  • CONCEPTUALIZATION [Challenging: Success]
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1141
  • Shitposts are a type of art for webforums
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #802 on: January 15, 2008, 04:38:20 AM »
Sopko dying though, does implicate you to a degree, more than anyone else. But any scum living would LOVE that. If you're not scum, obviously, you're not the target for the next night.

Strago

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 839
  • Scarfregist
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #803 on: January 15, 2008, 04:47:05 AM »
I think VSM's right on the money. Kilga could easilly have sat back and watch Excal escape the gallows. That seems to be the better option for scum in every way. It comes back to Carth v. Taishyr, for me, and... I just don't know.

If you had to choose right now, VSM, which would it be?

Carthrat

  • Max Level Arch Priestess
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1260
  • I'm a goddess! I'm really a goddess!
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #804 on: January 15, 2008, 05:05:26 AM »
I can't argue that I've been wrong on most counts for scum. What I can argue is that this doesn't necessarily implicate me. Furthermore, scum must vary their playing habits between them if they want to blend in and seperate themselves, so I'm not really buying that just because the other scum haven't hit each other hard... wait, didn't I vote for Excal at one point, fairly early on in a day?

I thought Sopko dying did implicate Tai slightly more than anyone else, but to be honest, it was scum's best kill today.

Tai's defence is... actually somewhat compelling. Kilga was my secondary target if Tai somehow is town, but I totally forgot that one scum has to make the kill each night, and that it seems, early on, that Cranbud would have had to have been the one snooping around out there, which means that Kilga might have been the one on the kill... hence why nobody else was out there getting roleblocked, presuming Kilga is scum roleblocker. I've been thinking up until now that it's really unlikely that, were scum to have a roleblocker, they'd not use it, but if they need someone on the kill as well...

One reason this theory *doesn't* ring true (lolstrawman) is that one cop was already dead and there wasn't an indication of a second, so Excal might have been doing the kills after all. I think this is rather xanatos-gambity and that my biggest suspect is still Tai... but the gap got somewhat shorter. Still, the point that it's a better move in every way for Kilga to not hammer it in rings true as well (if he's scum.)

<->

I think VSM wants to lynch me, which makes me sad in all kinds of ways. And I was kinda sarcastic to him when he had the vote on Excal, too. Argh. Stupid of me. At the time, I didn't think Excal was really a candidate to get lynched, and... I admittedly did not think much of VSM's opinions due to his earlier day 1-2 posts, so I was kinda short. It's ironic that right now, he's the most important voter. @_@
WHAT BENEFITS CAN ONE GET FROM SCIENTOLOGY?

Veryslightlymad

  • CONCEPTUALIZATION [Challenging: Success]
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1141
  • Shitposts are a type of art for webforums
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #805 on: January 15, 2008, 05:10:37 AM »
Excal is both the person who you voted for and the person who you defended with "Sarcasm" as you say. This is what bothers me. You can't have it both ways. If you're counting your early vote for Excal, then please, don't say that when I voted for him ON THE SAME DAY you were being sarcastic and thought he wasn't a candidate to be lynched.

Veryslightlymad

  • CONCEPTUALIZATION [Challenging: Success]
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1141
  • Shitposts are a type of art for webforums
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #806 on: January 15, 2008, 05:14:39 AM »
Strago:

If you can assume Kilga is innocent, which isn't necessarily a SAFE assumption.....

.....If you can make that assumption, it doesn't matter. We lynch one. If we're wrong, I die, and you and Kilga lynch the other. This is unsafe if Kilga is scum. (Or if you're scum, too, but after reading everything, I'm simply inclined to trust you more than the others)

Carthrat

  • Max Level Arch Priestess
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1260
  • I'm a goddess! I'm really a goddess!
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #807 on: January 15, 2008, 05:18:19 AM »
The thing is, at the time, I'd removed my vote. I didn't actually think he was that solid a candidate in the first place; my original vote there was 'cos I'd felt he looked a bit odd and needed to be poked. He addressed my concerns over his reasoning for voting Shale (which was that Shale himself was not playing confident at the time, basically.) That I felt he had to be defended stemmed from me wanting to back up taking my vote off him.

Or, simple version: I vote for Excal to get him talking. He talks. I unvote him. I defend him when others vote for him. In this case, I think I *can* have my cake and eat it too.

who the fuck doesn't eat cake if they have it
WHAT BENEFITS CAN ONE GET FROM SCIENTOLOGY?

Carthrat

  • Max Level Arch Priestess
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1260
  • I'm a goddess! I'm really a goddess!
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #808 on: January 15, 2008, 05:20:23 AM »
Going out. Back tonight. I don't know what else I have to add, here, don't feel obligated to wait around for me unless something extraordinarily interesting is said. Although I figure hammer is hardly likely to occur so early, I doubt I'd mind if it did.
WHAT BENEFITS CAN ONE GET FROM SCIENTOLOGY?

Taishyr

  • Guest
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #809 on: January 15, 2008, 05:20:48 AM »
The only problem with sitting back is that it then brings the people not voting for him into question, and pretty much kills Excal then and there, even if it lets him live an additional night.

So that would have made, assuming Excal lives and Sopko died (with the presumption that scum was trying to implicate me):

1)Kilga -> Scum
2)Excal -> Scum, Godfather
3)VSM -> Town
4)Carth -> Town
5)Strago -> Town
6)Taish -> Town

VSM is cleared. Excal dies during the day, VSM presumably during the night.

1)Kilga -> Scum - Did not hammer Excal
4)Carth -> Town - Did not hammer Excal
5)Strago -> Town
6)Taish -> Town

This puts Kilga into a precarious position - he has to rely on outfighting Carth for the final position.

With hammering Excal, he has:

1)Kilga -> Scum
3)VSM -> Town - Cleared
4)Carth -> Town
5)Strago -> Town
6)Taish -> Town - Suspicious due to Sopko death

Let's assume I go down here due to the Sopko death. VSM dies at night here.

1)Kilga -> Scum
4)Carth -> Town - Did not hammer Excal
5)Strago -> Town

Carthrat is the lone one who failed to vote Excal of the survivors. This looks to be a far superior situation, to my eyes, than the former suggestion.

And as for presuming VSM was killed instead of Sopko:

1)Kilga -> Scum
2)Excal -> Scum, Godfather
3)Sopko -> Town - Vouches for Taishyr
4)Carth -> Town
5)Strago -> Town
6)Taish -> Town

Excal is eliminated. I am killed here. Why?

1)Kilga -> Scum
3)Sopko -> Town
4)Carth -> Town
5)Strago -> Town

This leads back to a less optimal position, I feel, than the situation in which Carthrat is isolated, but... mmm, if Kilga is scum, why didn't he take this option? I don't know. It feels weird, but here he's still in some danger of being taken down.

...And for if Excal is hammered and VSM killed:

1)Kilga -> Scum
3)Sopko -> Town - Vouches for Taishyr
4)Carth -> Town
5)Strago -> Town
6)Taish -> Town - Cleared.

Presume Carthrat dies here. I die at night.

1)Kilga -> Scum
3)Sopko -> Town
5)Strago -> Town

This situation has three people who went against Excal. The problem? Sopko and Strago both led the push on Excal from early on, so this... wouldn't be as easy for Kilga to argue out of.

...Mrf. I suppose I see the least practical danger to Sopko down the Kill Excal/Sopko line, but maybe I am missing something here? If Kilga is scum, the mentality of "kill both Taishyr and Carthrat" is something he would greatly want.


Taishyr

  • Guest
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #810 on: January 15, 2008, 05:31:56 AM »
Error: "I see the least practical danger to Kilgamayan down the Kill Excal/Sopko line".

...Can anyone spot anything I'm doing wrong there, logically? I'm looking it over and... urgh. I'm going to make one more post, this on in defense of self from Rat, but then I need to sleep, I've got a bad headache.

Veryslightlymad

  • CONCEPTUALIZATION [Challenging: Success]
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1141
  • Shitposts are a type of art for webforums
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #811 on: January 15, 2008, 05:34:05 AM »
"who the fuck doesn't eat cake if they have it"

You can't HAVE your cake (consuming it) and EAT it too (Consuming it.... a second time.) You can HAVE cake or you can EAT cake, but you can't do both.

..........Yeah, I never got that until recently, either. Weird, huh?

Veryslightlymad

  • CONCEPTUALIZATION [Challenging: Success]
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1141
  • Shitposts are a type of art for webforums
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #812 on: January 15, 2008, 05:36:32 AM »
Also, I don't like a "Let's form a block of dudes!" idea here, either, because, you have to guess right on your block of dudes RIGHT NOW. Which, I dunno. It feels like there's more ways to flesh out info.

Kilgamayan

  • Celluloid Hero
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1059
  • Never feels any pain, never really dies
    • View Profile
    • This is the state to which I have been reduced.
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #813 on: January 15, 2008, 06:19:32 AM »
Boy, I wish Monday night TV didn't require so much of my attention.

Strago: My thoughts which you asked for earlier have been mostly presented already; I was thinking about Rat and Tai in my head, mostly because I'd been operating under the assumption that they were town all game. Rat's lack of a tie to Excal and the vote for VSM over Nitori are decent points, and I shared Rat's thought process that the giant tie-in post may purely have been a setup when I thought about it while watching American Gladiators. (Also, I find it odd that Tai would label himself as suspicious because of Sopko's death considering how WIFOM it is.)

Tai: I presume I was not killed on Night 4 for two reasons:

- I had a single-shot roleblock. While, sure, it could be used on scum to give town an advantage, it could've just as likely have been used on town to either do nothing or give scum an advantage. One shot of an essential coinflip isn't very much to worry about when there are other targets floating around.
- As a player I have been all but useless. Why kill someone who has done nothing but accuse townies of being scum and vice versa?


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Taishyr

  • Guest
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #814 on: January 15, 2008, 09:11:13 AM »
Okay. To address the arguments brought by Carthrat against me...

1) Yes, I was sympathetic to Excal for a while. A lot of people were. I pointed out the posts that changed this for me; I noted why, and yesterday he -was- among my list of suspects, alongside Sopko (killed last game night) and Kilgamayan. As Strago said, a lot of people had neutral to good stances toward him and defended him at multiple points.


2) I've not been as active.

...Okay, yes. This is in many regards true. I have not constructed many of my own cases, sure. Problem with this?

Day 3 and day 5 were controlled by roleclaims and their fallout. Day 3, I was going to vote Bobbin Cranbud, but then we got the swarm of votes for him and I held off to see if Bobbin Cranbud would actually claim. He did, the claim seemed off, I pointed out that Bobbin Cranbud's defenses had seemed, in retrospect, highly revisionist in his actions. I did not end up voting for him, this is true. Sopko hammered to finish him.

Day 5, I argued against MadFnorder's lynch, though my entire proof of it pretty much boiled down to gut + me considering 1 SK + 2 Town Ghosts more likely than 1 SK + 1 Town + 1 Scum Ghost. I had nothing else going for it other than that and the feeling that it was much like EvilTom's lynch. I honestly have no regrets over it; I was fairly sure he was town, even if I couldn't explain why to anyone else.

Day 6 I did advance my own case - against Sopko. I switched votes to Excal as we neared deadline so that we could -try- to lynch someone. Kilga chose to hammer.

Day 2 I voted for Nitori on gut plus Nitori's vote for VSM, which seemed off at the time.

Day 1, I was one of the earliest votes on EvilTom.

The only place this argument really feels like it has much point is day 4, where I joined the Otter lynch, finding his constant spasms of silence one of the most suspicious things going on at the time. And... I had been pressing on lurkers that entire day, first pressing on Strago to talk with my vote, then placing my vote on Otter and keeping it there.


3) My rant.

Ah, yes. Done at like 10:00 PM of the night before my second-to-last final, I think? Yeah, looking back I should have been far more calm about it; but... at the time, I seriously was just feeling completely worthless in regards to what I had managed in the game, since I was often getting on just as everyone was getting off, thanks to finals in the mornings. I can't justify this. It was something I said at the peak of frustration and confusion over the game, and part of what convinced me to try and do the connections post.


4) My first post of day 5.

Firstly, wait what. Again, problem with yelling at me about Excal is that all the cops were revealing and saying "yeah we get him as town". None of said cops had flipped as scum. ...you're blaming me for this? Yes, there was the possibility that he was godfather (what he turned out to be... how in hell did the godfather attract all the cops? -_-), but I considered it less likely at the time than Excal being scum. The other two problems you raise are for defending MadFnorder (see above, point 2) and... for the sacrifice game comment, which you tie to me leading in on Nitori.

I made that comment because the death of Nitori and Cranbud (primarily Nitori) was rubbing me the wrong way, and in the process a number of roleclaims had been forced out - CK, Yakumo, VSM; and there was minimal defense of Nitori -or- Cranbud, other than generally vague feelings on Nitori and a general pause when Cranbud roleclaimed.

Granted, there may not have been much the scum could have done for Cranbud, but Nitori could likely have been saved, by Cranbud himself if nothing else (remember, his vote wasn't on any of the three). Not even a roleclaim, though that may be just Nitori being Nitori.

No effort was placed into protecting them. It felt like they invested all their energy into ensuring Excal and whoever the hell the fourth scum is were/are set up well.

Now, I just think they were rolling with the hits; it would explain the near-consistent elimination of power roles. Why Corwin instead of Kilgamayan (or VSM) if Kilga isn't scum is the one part I don't get, here, in all honesty.


5) My 'connections' post.

You fear that it could be used as a smokescreen by me as scum to deflect suspicion away from myself?

Then ignore that part. The document was intended to point out the patterns I had seen thus far in the game, and to hopefully help provide a hint as to what the hell was going on when we finally nailed scum. I considered leaving myself off of it! But figured that would get me attacked with "so you didn't want us to see your pattern, eh?" so I put myself in as fairly as I could, noting where I made the decision to start making this so you could consider the people responding to me without considering me directly commenting to others, if you so chose.

I made it for a tool that people could use on the offensive, and included myself for the completion factor; to try and defend myself with that would be... stupid, simply put, even from the start.

Mrf. It appears it has caused a damn smokescreen, even when that was nowhere near the intent.


Quote
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3359#msg3359

Despite thinking Fnorder is going to show up scum, he would advocate lynching him over Shale at the moment. Reasonable, given Shale is the cop. I can't make so much of this post... it's kind of just 'there' for me. Anyone else want to take a crack at analysis?

I think you meant to say I thought Fnorder would turn up town.

Quote
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3437#msg3437

He comes out to hit Soppy, here. Honestly I can't fault him much given the oddness of Tai's claim. I will admit if Soppy was going to claim, he should claim all his role (including the miller part), but I would have preferred Soppy to not claim at this point.

...the oddness of -my- claim? I can only presume this is supposed to say "Sopko's claim"?


It really feels like your case against me boils down to 1) "slipping under the radar", 2) the connections post, and 3) the line about a sacrifice game. I hope I've explained the sacrifice game comment well; I know it's better than I could manage to put it into words then. As for slipping under the radar, uh, I'm really sorry that I couldn't encourage your thinking as often as you would like, but a lot of this was me being unsure on how to put anything at multiple points beyond "gut is telling me yes/no" since "hay everyone my gut says this vote for/don't vote for this person" isn't... the most stellar of arguments, you know? I trust my gut a fair bit, but I can understand no one else doing so. >_>

I need sleep, I'll be back in a few five hours to look in.

Carthrat

  • Max Level Arch Priestess
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1260
  • I'm a goddess! I'm really a goddess!
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #815 on: January 15, 2008, 02:22:28 PM »
VSM: With regards to forming blocks of dudes, well, you, unlike us, have multiple suspects to consider. I don't think it's so invalid for Strago, Tai, Kilga and I to basically think "Which of the others do I trust the most?" and then try to get the other two lynched.

I think one problem with the 'why didn't they lynch Kilga when he had a power role this' is a pretty crucial difference between Kilga's role and those of others; that is, Kilga no longer had any investigative powers (or so he claimed). A oneshot roleblock is a chancy tool at best, for it must both target scum and target the *right* scum. One could also consider the possibility that Corwin was simply deemed a larger threat, I guess.

Tai's post has highlighted that my argument against him is hardly watertight. I'm mainly cursing the fact that if I'm wrong on you, then too much of what I've said also applies to me. He's admitted to some flaws in his play, and I think his suspicions on Kilga should be lessened, given what I and others have said.

The thing is, I know there've been points throughout this game where I've been on the same line of thought as... every other suspect. So much for mirroring thoughts being a towntell.

<->

Gah. I'm going to ask everyone else: Who, right now, would you vote for if you absolutely had to? Provide as much reasoning as you deem necessary. I'd actually prefer brief summaries, like this-

I want to vote Taishyr because I feel he's hung back for most of the game and done a few odd things, but mainly because VSM is a townie, and I feel the cases on Strago and Kilga lack punch thanks to role madness. Therefore, he's the only target left to me.

<->

There is one other thing that.. I dunno. I don't even know if I should have an opinion on it, but I want to ask anyway. On the assumption that I'm wrong and he is, in fact, town: Tai, do you think I'm scummy or townlike? And why to either answer?
WHAT BENEFITS CAN ONE GET FROM SCIENTOLOGY?

Strago

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 839
  • Scarfregist
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #816 on: January 15, 2008, 02:43:53 PM »
If I absolutely had to vote at this moment...

... I think it would be for Tai. I've been going back and forth between him and Rat in my head for several hours, now, and I can't find anything objectively substantial enough to do the decidin' for me, so it's pretty much down to my gut instinct. On a re-read of the topic, though, there is something pretty striking about how noncomittal Tai has consistently been on just about everything. And, hell... why not bus a Framer, if the Cop has just died? Grah. Not to mention that his case against Kilga seems extremely convoluted when I'm a lot more inclined to invoke Occam's Razor and say that Kil is a safe bet for town.

Rarglefeckleblargh. If I'm wrong on this one, Rat...

A) I will never ever mistrust my initial impulse at this stage of a Mafia game again, especially since I was going to use my Dayvig power against you a day or two before you got lynched in FFT. >_>
B) I'm comin' for you tomorrow.

##VOTE: Taishyr

Sierra

  • N I G H T M A R E E Y E S
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 5135
  • Go get dead, angel face
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #817 on: January 15, 2008, 05:40:47 PM »
Update!

Kilgamayan (1): Taishyr
Taishyr (2): Carthrat, Strago

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

There are 24 hours until the deadline.

Taishyr

  • Guest
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #818 on: January 15, 2008, 07:27:27 PM »
Right now, Carthrat? On the basis of the final reread I did, I would say you're... most likely town.

I kept working on and then stalling out on the analysis I was doing for you; simply put, however, while you have had a few odd points, especially in the beginning of the game (attack on EvilTom, then calling other people for not getting what you said right when you yourself did it to him), there... you have, in general, reasoned logically, well, and provided justification for each move, I feel, and you have not done a certain scumtell that you tend to slip into when you are scum. I would vote Strago over you at this point. This feeling is not assisted at this time by Strago's main commentary being...

YES. SWEET. I am pumped. We can do this.

If we're still not in LYLO, VSM is town. Which is a good thing.

The small possibility that Kilga is scum still remains, but I still doubt it. Not only because of his role, but because I think scum really could've let that day ride out with few consequences.

So it seems to be between Carth and Taishyr, at the moment. And Carth looks significantly worse. Instead of responding to my post explaining why lynching Kilga didn't look like the best idea, he just voted Kil and then said he'd post more before deadline, which he conspicuously did not do. Tai voted Excal when, as with Kilga, scum seemingly could have easily pressed the issue on Soppy and brought us to deadline and No Lynch. Thoughts?

And Kilga's ninja post brings up another reason that Carth looks bad. Yeah, I'm feeling pretty solid on this one right now.

Huh. Remember back around the end of Day 2, when hardly anyone had voted and we were pretty much in a dead heat deciding who to lynch between VSM and Nitori? Well, Tai voted for Nitori... and just after that, Carthrat voted for VSM, tying things back up again. Were Taishyr scum, I see very, very little reason for him to have gone out on a limb to do that to Nitori at that point. If Carth is scum, though, that response makes a good deal of sense. And this is all way back in the day, when even careful scum don't know what sort of thing is going to get hunted up by endgame.

If Tai is scum, then he'd be dead if Sopko was alive to finish his investigation; worst case, we'd lynch Soppy, and then him when Soppy flips town. Yes, Tai voted for Excal. And yes, scum can still bus at lategame (and it can be more effective to do so at times!)

WIFOM. Any non-Soppy scum kills Hex, and then goes "obviously Tai wouldn't want Soppy to reveal his investigation!" This is circular and leads nowhere.

Quote
Furthermore, if other people could see the case against Nitori at that time, so can scum; an early bus tends to garner a great deal more credibility than a late one. The reasons I voted for VSM felt sound at the time, as I'd like you to keep in mind that he hadn't voted at all and was playing what seemed to me like a very shaky, passive game; he stuck out for that, and thus my attention was drawn.

There was very little case against Nitori, at that point. Hell, there was never a profoundly compelling case against Nitori, and at the point where Tai put him in the lead he could have just as easily placed a vote somewhere else and made it a three-man race or put VSM way in the lead, as VSM was looking plenty scummy early on. Granted, Nitori was a Framer, Smodge was dead, and you guys didn't necessarily have any reason to suspect there was a second Cop so early on... but it just seems so out of the blue to bus him back then.

In my - admittedly somewhat cursory - reread of the topic today, Carth, I saw a pretty early vote from you against Excal, and then a lack of any suspicion of him for days afterward. You and Tai seem roughly equal on that count. Hell, I thought Excal was relatively clean, earlier on. He played well. This area seems pretty much null to me.

Tai, VSM, Kilga? More thoughts?


... hmm. Frankly, I'd like to see Tai defend himself, at this point. That's a fairly strong offensive from Rat, all things considered, and I find myself a lot less certain of my previous anti-Carth convictions. I guess for the moment I'll wait for Tai's rebuttal.

You've neglected to consider one option, Tai. That scum have a shot of Docbust - attached to the final remaining scum, and lost if that scum were to die - that kicks in automatically when it is needed, and doesn't have to be designated when they choose the NK target. Unless my memory fails me utterly, this is exactly how the Docbust was supposed to work in FFT Mafia, so I see no reason for it to be ruled out entirely here.

I think VSM's right on the money. Kilga could easilly have sat back and watch Excal escape the gallows. That seems to be the better option for scum in every way. It comes back to Carth v. Taishyr, for me, and... I just don't know.

If you had to choose right now, VSM, which would it be?

If I absolutely had to vote at this moment...

... I think it would be for Tai. I've been going back and forth between him and Rat in my head for several hours, now, and I can't find anything objectively substantial enough to do the decidin' for me, so it's pretty much down to my gut instinct. On a re-read of the topic, though, there is something pretty striking about how noncomittal Tai has consistently been on just about everything. And, hell... why not bus a Framer, if the Cop has just died? Grah. Not to mention that his case against Kilga seems extremely convoluted when I'm a lot more inclined to invoke Occam's Razor and say that Kil is a safe bet for town.

Rarglefeckleblargh. If I'm wrong on this one, Rat...

A) I will never ever mistrust my initial impulse at this stage of a Mafia game again, especially since I was going to use my Dayvig power against you a day or two before you got lynched in FFT. >_>
B) I'm comin' for you tomorrow.

##VOTE: Taishyr

...what feels completely summarizable as "Carthrat looks bad! Ah, Carthrat attacked Taishyr. You sure? Well, then... yeah, Taishyr does look bad, too! Taishyr attacks Kilga? Mmm, no, still voting Taishyr."

There have been two posts in contribution of information from him today; the fourth and the sixth. Aside from that... it just feels like he's the one standing back and watching now. If gut wasn't still clinging to Kilga, I'd change votes; this really just feels off. But I've presented my case and done what I can, here. I can only hope this helps out tomorrow.

Strago

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 839
  • Scarfregist
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #819 on: January 15, 2008, 07:55:19 PM »
It's a coinflip between you and Carth right now, Tai, and as you've just pointed out I have a difficult time choosing between you. But I've been fairly clear, I think, on why I have a really hard time seeing Kilga as scum. If we don't nail it today, I think we will tomorrow.

Taishyr

  • Guest
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #820 on: January 15, 2008, 08:33:05 PM »
The main reason you have problems seeing Kilga as scum is because he could have let the day go to end, correct? I already pointed out how that could be useful to Kilga, last post of the previous page.

Strago

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 839
  • Scarfregist
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #821 on: January 15, 2008, 09:21:29 PM »
I think the main problem with it, to me, is that deadline snuck up on all of us and it would have been reasonably believable for Kilga just not to have been around to change things for Excal. Legit excuses are good for scum, but at the same time believable by their very nature. This in combination with me trying not to assume that the most complex solution is the right one, i.e. that Kilga's roleclaim is real and not a weird gambit that involves him having used a Scum Roleblock once in the whole game to claim some esoteric town role.

... and yet...

I find myself remembering something Kilga was saying when we were scum together during WoT Mafia, and that he said once the game had ended. That he wanted to play more aggressively as scum. Our thing had just sort of all been to play as separate vanilla townies and not let a larger scheme get us tripped up in ways that could connect us, and I don't think Kilga ever did like that. And Kilga did start this hypothetical gambit a decent amount of time before we all had recent to suspect or believe that this was such a weird high-Cop game. Hnnnnnrgh.

##UNVOTE: Taishyr

The other thing I noticed just now is how little Kilga's said about anything aside from his own defense thus far. Bit of a scummy sort of a thing. Sigh. So you're right, Tai. I'm not so sure about Kilga anymore.

For myself, I dunno what to say in my defense. You believe my claim or you don't, and my vaguely spotty vote record speaks for itself or it doesn't. As far as changing my mind today goes, though, well what the hell else ought I to be doing? When I see an argument that I find compelling, I'm going to bow to it, and when I have original theories of my own you can be darn sure I'll bring 'em up, but for the most part this has been a really tough two-way call (now a three-way call) with very few tells in any camp, any one of which can generally be muddled by some sort of WIFOM argument or other.

I want to hear what Kilga has to say.


Sierra

  • N I G H T M A R E E Y E S
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 5135
  • Go get dead, angel face
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #822 on: January 15, 2008, 10:43:32 PM »
Update!

Kilgamayan (1): Taishyr
Taishyr (1): Carthrat, Strago

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

There are 18.75 hours until the deadline.

Kilgamayan

  • Celluloid Hero
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1059
  • Never feels any pain, never really dies
    • View Profile
    • This is the state to which I have been reduced.
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #823 on: January 15, 2008, 11:59:07 PM »
I find myself remembering something Kilga was saying when we were scum together during WoT Mafia, and that he said once the game had ended. That he wanted to play more aggressively as scum. Our thing had just sort of all been to play as separate vanilla townies and not let a larger scheme get us tripped up in ways that could connect us, and I don't think Kilga ever did like that. And Kilga did start this hypothetical gambit a decent amount of time before we all had recent to suspect or believe that this was such a weird high-Cop game. Hnnnnnrgh.

In that game you'll recall that I only wanted to do crazy convoluted aggressive stuff once someone called for all cops to roleclaim. Before that all I wanted to do was get silenced with the intention that I'm giving the rest of you an opportunity to look better with my death (though at this point I forget how exactly that was supposed to work). As much as I would enjoy being a more aggressive scum player, I have very little interest in sticking my neck out if it's not for the benefit of a teammate.

As for Tai's proposed optimal situation for scum me, I disagree with his assessment that he goes down today because of Sopko's death casting suspicion on him. Finding Tai suspicious because of Sopko's death is not only laughably WIFOM but is very possibly incorrect, as non-Tai scum would have every reason to prevent Sopko from revealing Tai as town, just as scum Tai would have every reason to prevent Sopko from fingering him.

I admit that, if I were scum, the three-way situation after that would be most enjoyable, but I don't buy the reasoning Tai followed as he went down that path to get there in the first place.


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Strago

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 839
  • Scarfregist
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #824 on: January 16, 2008, 12:12:34 AM »
Fair enough, but that doesn't really address the larger issue Tai was talking about, it seems to me. If you are scum and Carth or I gets lynched instead of Tai, the situation for you tomorrow is pretty much the same, is it not? So... how does that affect Tai's analysis?

More importantly, who do you think is scum?