Author Topic: Discworld Mafia is go! (Read 115216 times)

Yakumo · « **Reply #275 on:** January 06, 2008, 05:30:19 AM »

There's only about ten hours left in the day, and if it were to end right now, we would lynch Soppy with a whopping two votes. We need other people talking and voting, like NOW.

Yakumo · « **Reply #276 on:** January 06, 2008, 05:33:21 AM »

Wait, no. Missed Nitori's vote for VSM. So, we'd be in sudden with two votes on VSM and Soppy. Still not a good thing. >_>

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #277 on:** January 06, 2008, 05:36:05 AM »

Bed time for me. I'll make sure to set my alarm so I can get up in time to re-evaluate my position.

Veryslightlymad · « **Reply #278 on:** January 06, 2008, 05:44:53 AM »

Maybe now is a good time to get everyone we can to have another big hashing-out? I'm online for now, so if anyone has any ideas, I'd like to hear 'em.

(Off topic: Your censor won't let you say "Death"?)

Yakumo · « **Reply #279 on:** January 06, 2008, 05:52:31 AM »

Well, can you explain why you're so sure Soppy isn't scum? The only thing I can remember you saying on the matter evidence-wise was that he saw something fishy in QR. The thing is, even if he's scum, he wouldn't have known that she was self-aligned, so that doesn't carry as much weight as it would if she had been scum. Also, a lot of people seem to think that the thing he saw that was fishy really wasn't anything important, as it was just a somewhat pointed joke about the way Otter operates, which most of us seem to have seen as an oblique compliment.

Veryslightlymad · « **Reply #280 on:** January 06, 2008, 06:09:44 AM »

Well, that was pretty much my argument, yeah. I guess I'm focusing pretty hard that she DID turn out to be something fishy. So... Sopko's sort of the only person in this game with street cred, but maybe I'm giving him a bit too much.

Taishyr · « **Reply #281 on:** January 06, 2008, 06:17:28 AM »

Sopko: (2) Corwin, Yakumo
CmdrKing: (1) Strago
Corwin: (1) Otter
Nitori: (1) MadFnorder
Shale: (1) CmdrKing
VSM: (2) Kilgamayan, Nitori
Kilgamayan: (1) Bobbin Cranbud

The Cases

Hunter Sopko
Corwin's vote for Sopko
Yakumo's vote for Sopko (did I miss a Sopko reply in here?)
Sopko's reply to Yakumo
Yakumo's reply

Personal opinion: Mmm, while I understand this case, I'm... hesitantly thinking he's town. The jumping on QR feels like a null tell at worst, while the jump on Corwin feels like a null tell at best... but his replies have been even enough that I'm not agreeing with the argument. I don't know how to put it any better; wish I did, it would help. For now, I'm not in agreement with this case.

CmdrKing
Strago's vote for CmdrKing
CmdrKing's response
More commentary from CK
Strago reply
CK reply

Personal opinion: ...I don't get this one at all, but perhaps my density is Letty-like today.

Corwin
Otter's vote for Corwin
Short Corwin response before a catch-up read

Personal opinion: I've never been one to vote solely on simple bad play/reasoning, and that's all this feels like. There isn't much to this argument length-wise (a post by Otter, and a short reply by Corwin), and I can't but feel that it's irrelevant, here.

Nitori
MadFnorder's vote for Nitori

Personal opinion: The vote here from MadFnorder is... uncompelling, in and of itself. But... a poke for conversation from someone who is speaking and in fact in an argument currently (see the VSM argument)? ...Feels off to me; the person was and is talking, the vote doesn't seem to segue logically in. So... ##Vote: Nitori. Mind explaining that?

Shale
CK's vote for Shale
Shale's commentary in return

Personal opinion: This is also interesting; Shale's far quieter than I'm used to, and... just doesn't seem to be as engaged in this. I'm not getting much out of his commentary, either, though apparently the feeling is mutual. This... yeah, it feels off from both a metagaming and a simple analysis standpoint. FoS: Shale Not as bad as what I see when I look at that post of Nitori's, but still peculiar.

VSM
Kilga's vote for VSM
VSM commentary/response (I think I missed a few of his other comments toward this, lemme look quickly and handle that but for now this was the most relevant
Yakumo commenting to VSM (a comment everyone should take heed, includin' me)
Nitori voting for VSM (see my feelings on this in the Nitori case file

Personal opinion: Mmm... While I disagree completely with VSM not voting (Yelling Bird yells for people to vote and speak your mind)... frankly, I'm not sure how much of the rest of the argument I agree with, here. This is one I want to look over for a while, but for now... mrf, no.

Kilgamayan
Bobbin's vote for Kilga
Kilga reply

Personal reply: ...and since I can see VSM appearing suspicious to some, the pressure on Kilga for pressing on him is also a bit weird. But then again, I could be reading this entire thing wrong.

Conclusion: Leaning Nitori, then Shale; the rest of this, not too sure on even still.

Cmdr_King · « **Reply #282 on:** January 06, 2008, 06:22:17 AM »

Hmph. Idle bits of metagaming.

19 players. Standard distribution would suggest 6 scum. We had a serial killer though, so it's possible there are only 5 (also possible, however, that town has some serious power and there's still 6, although I lean based on available evidence towards there being 5.) 15 currently alive, so we'd still be two days away from LYLO, although obviously there's been no revelations on this front so that could be off.

Given the setting, I'm strongly suspecting we had a Rookie. As such, mass claims are bad and anyone with a Watch character should keep quiet on that front.

Otherwise, we should indeed try to find an agreeable target, because a good many people won't be on again before deadline hits. I'm... not opposed to axing Soppy if it's the choice between that and No-Lynch, but I'm not really sold on his case either. Same with VSM (although he seems even less likely to be scum to me) or my current vote (Shale).

Excal · « **Reply #283 on:** January 06, 2008, 06:24:41 AM »

Honestly, I think you are. He jumped on her for a small thing, and she did turn out to be something other than town. On the other hand, that might actually be a point against Sopko. Looking at the flavour of the night kills, it's implied that QR killed Smodge, and that the scum killed QR. Which means that the Scum wanted her dead. Your argument for Soppy is that he also wanted her dead. Granted, no one really wants a random third party with a night kill wandering around, but saying that he's obviously town because he hit paydirt wouldn't necessarily hold even if it was scum he had targetted, let alone a target neither side would have known about, and we can be fairly sure the Scum wanted gone.

As for my thoughts on Sopko as a whole. I can't see much cause to go after him at present. I can see some, but I've learned to be careful around him given I've gone after him pretty hard three times now, and all three times he was town. So, I seem to see his normal behaviour as riddled with scum tells, and I don't want to keep on falling blindly into that.

Anyways, now that I've wound down from work, I'm going to try and scour this topic again, and see if I can't find something else to talk about.

Yakumo · « **Reply #284 on:** January 06, 2008, 06:28:08 AM »

6 scum for 19 players? I'd be more inclined to say 5, possibly as low as 4 with a SK in the mix. 6 would be only about two town to one scum, horrible odds without a ton of power roles.

That said, yes, we need to come together on someone. My vote tells you what I think is the best choice, but I'm willing to listen to arguments if someone can come up with a better case, I'll freely admit this isn't exactly a watertight one I'm working with.

Carthrat · « **Reply #285 on:** January 06, 2008, 06:33:26 AM »

When last I checked, the people I was wary of were Shale, Soppy, and Corwin.

Corwin is looking better at the moment, though. I feel a mite piqued that he's coming on strongly to my own poor/hypocritical plays. It doesn't seem to bother him much, however, although it probably merited pointing out.

Kilga kinda backed out on hitting CmdrKing like he said he would before and hit VSM instead on grounds of lurking, and this was before VSM started making the horrible plays he's doing at the moment. VSM seems to claim he's made some substantial claims-

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2292#msg2292

-and yet thinks his opinion is uninformed-

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2282#msg2282

-that Kilga has been trying to make things more confusing (and to date, Kilga has seemed like a solid player to me. Frankly, I think it's odd that VSM has the balls to call Kilga out on questioning himself)

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2296#msg2296

-is giving Soppy street cred just recently when it would be natural for scum to vote for people who aren't scum that look suspicious (as opposed to making dumb votes for people who look relatively clean).

This is all enough to warrant a ##Vote: VSM from me.

You know, I'd be more inclined to believe the Soppy Street Cred theory if he'd stuck with QR at all, but his suspicions were pretty easily deflected and he wound up making the easy vote for EvilTom, who was rapidly seeming far more suspicious at the time. At the moment, Soppy remains mostly vacant in what he's saying. His latest post doesn't really accuse anyone of being bad and is pretty passive in general; talking about town vs. town arguments, things that don't swing someone towards scum or town either way, etc. etc. etc.

Oh, and this gem from Bobbin Cranbud;

Quote

In fact, there's SO little to go on - annoyingly little; this feels more like a Day 1 to me - I find your aggressive pursuit of VSM, and the way you've gone about it, probably the most suspicious thing going on. It's honestly not all that much, but it's more than I have on anyone else.

followed by a vote for Kilga. *VSM* is not playing terribly smartly! Why do you think VSM doesn't deserve to be attacked? You can see he's having trouble defending himself! I don't feel like I'm voting blind, here.

Shale claims to be starting to make an effort. I'll grant his posts seem to be reflecting more on what's already happened, although I feel he could be saying more.

Quote from: RoteTownisms

Everyone NEEDS to vote and converse. It's extraordinarily frustrating here; I *know* that just because a bunch of you aren't talking or saying much doesn't mean everyone who is kinda-lurking is scum. But it's the best tell I can find at the moment. I hate seeing this desire to force people to slow down or not put pressure on others. Part of the assumption in lynching lurkers is that lynching lurkers works because scum have more trouble coming up with what to say than town because every claim they make is, essentially, a *fabrication*; therefore they are more likely to post less frequently. The whole system just falls apart if you don't pick up the pace.

Especially the voting. In case you didn't realise, we are currently forced to lynch by deadline. You. Must. Vote. Not putting down a vote is tantamount to voting No Lynch, which is not a good idea right now and probably won't be at all this game.

Corwin · « **Reply #286 on:** January 06, 2008, 06:34:49 AM »

Another day, another post before I've finished catching up for real. Is it just me, or is Tai posting more than Otter, in both quantity and quality?

Taishyr · « **Reply #287 on:** January 06, 2008, 06:39:27 AM »

Hey, I always try for quality! ...quantity, yes, I tend to lack a fair bit of unless I'm positive someone's scum and pushing the case, which is... due to how you guys time things, rare; I tend to return to find the arguments made. A touch frustrating, but I do what I can with the time I have.

Out for food, back far before deadline, unless I'm eaten by dire weasels.

Veryslightlymad · « **Reply #288 on:** January 06, 2008, 06:52:53 AM »

Otter tends to post an awful lot, even when he is scum. There's not all that much that keeps him from posting, but being scum isn't it.
~~~~~~
I feel like I'm defending myself adequately, Rat.

Nitori · « **Reply #289 on:** January 06, 2008, 06:55:44 AM »

VSM was talking, yes. He hadn't really said anything yet, though, and I thought I could apply a bit more pressure to perhaps help him to talk a bit more. It probably wasn't intended to be as strong as it probably came off.

He has been arguing, but a lot of it seemed defensive, and I'd like to see a bit of offense from Mr. VSM; it appears he was closing in on the verge of an offensive earlier today but never quite got around to it.

Yakumo · « **Reply #290 on:** January 06, 2008, 06:58:22 AM »

Grah, it's late and I'm kinda dozing off at the keyboard. I'll try and be back before line and see if anything's happened, but I haven't seen anything to make me change my vote to this point.

Veryslightlymad · « **Reply #291 on:** January 06, 2008, 07:04:39 AM »

(And "Dead", too? Poor Yakko.)

Nitori, I've said it a bunch of times. I just don't see who I could throw my all my weight at. There's still time in the day, so I'm either waiting for someone to slip up, or I'm waiting to see something new in the archives that I just couldn't before. But it doesn't really feel like we have any tangible leads right now. Doesn't help matters that our cop died. I have a hard time taking anyone's votes at this point as more than just a guess.

Corwin · « **Reply #292 on:** January 06, 2008, 07:14:09 AM »

I think there's been a misunderstanding earlier on, with regard to VSM. Several people seem to question him questioning Kilga's efforts... and while true, at the time I read that post as a response to the one Nitori made against him. If I'm right about this, then VSM would have reason to be offended of Nitori, who managed to slip under my radar for most of the game (I forget he's playing each time until I see him post) accuse him of lurking.

(I'm talikng about http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2292#msg2292 )

If he was talking about Kilga after all, ignore this, I suppose. Even if true that doesn't excuse the rest of VSM's behavior, but there are certainly people who participate less.

What else? Otter, like I mentioned in the previous post, is way too quiet and his excuse of not being here ran out when he checked in the first time. I don't much care about giving him a free pass for being a good player. In fact, that makes his behavior all the more suspicious. Sadly, that's all I have at the moment. I'd really like Otter to speak (a lot) more, the way he usually does, and would back it up with voting for him if nothing less than that gains his attention.

Sopko... responded to Yakumo, but not really to me. And while we all make mistakes, I agree with Yakumo that it's easier for scum to make them. Not what I'd call an airtight case, but it works to hold my vote for the time being.

Don't like the way Shale has acted on Day 1 (I think I disagreed with him back then, and considered it a matter of playing style), but I don't think it's scummy behavior. I'll wait for more tells, if any, from him.

Bobbin Cranbud · « **Reply #293 on:** January 06, 2008, 07:22:56 AM »

Quote from: Carthrat on January 06, 2008, 06:33:26 AM

Oh, and this gem from Bobbin Cranbud;

Quote
In fact, there's SO little to go on - annoyingly little; this feels more like a Day 1 to me - I find your aggressive pursuit of VSM, and the way you've gone about it, probably the most suspicious thing going on. It's honestly not all that much, but it's more than I have on anyone else.
followed by a vote for Kilga. *VSM* is not playing terribly smartly! Why do you think VSM doesn't deserve to be attacked? You can see he's having trouble defending himself! I don't feel like I'm voting blind, here.

I don't think VSM deserves to be attacked, or at least singled out, because he hasn't done anything scummy that I can see. His participation has been fairly low to this point, but personally I find questions more informative than votes at this stage, provided they are ever answered. Mind, I noted above that we're in bad shape to BE at this stage so late in Day 2, but it is what it is.

Personally, I think Otter, Nitori and still Fnorder (who, by my count has posted all of once, and that to announce his presence) are much more lurky and low-content than VSM in terms of content, and I found it weird that Kilga seemed to be jumping on VSM with attack dog ferocity. Still do. In terms of voting - at that point, about a third of the players had votes in play, so VSM not doesn't single him out, either.

Quote from: Carthrat on January 06, 2008, 06:33:26 AM

Especially the voting. In case you didn't realise, we are currently forced to lynch by deadline. You. Must. Vote. Not putting down a vote is tantamount to voting No Lynch, which is not a good idea right now and probably won't be at all this game.

Whoa, whoa, wait a minute! This isn't accurate, is it? My understanding was that consensus or no lynch came in TOMORROW, not today.

If this is accurate, it considerably changes my position.

I still don't see VSM as particularly egregious, but it certainly makes things more urgent!

Veryslightlymad · « **Reply #294 on:** January 06, 2008, 07:26:41 AM »

Quote from: OP

Days will be 48 hours long. If a majority vote has not been reached by the end of that time period, the player with the most votes will be lynched. As of now, I don't intend to change this rule, but I may reconsider after a couple days.

We won't lose our lynch, guys.

Corwin · « **Reply #295 on:** January 06, 2008, 07:30:51 AM »

Ahh, no, VSM.

Quote

Due to the considerable derailment caused by CPU's suicide rush, I am pushing the deadline back by twelve hours. Thus, it is now 33 hours until the deadline. I have also decided to implement the "No majority by deadline = no lynch" policy beginning on the next game-day, as this seems to force more active discussion (as opposed to having people let the deadline do the work for them).

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2193#msg2193

This is pretty similar to what made me suspicious about Sopko, so I can't say you're looking too hot right now.

Veryslightlymad · « **Reply #296 on:** January 06, 2008, 07:35:19 AM »

The OP needs to be updated, then.

Ranmilia · « **Reply #297 on:** January 06, 2008, 07:35:29 AM »

Yes, you will lose your lynch.

VOTECOUNT:

Cmdr_King (1): Strago
Corwin (1): Otter
Hunter Sopko (2): Corwin, Yakumo
Nitori (2): Mad Fnorder, Taishyr
Shale (1): Cmdr_King
VSM (3): Kilgamayan, Nitori, Carthrat
Kilgamayan (1): Bobbin Cranbud

With fifteen alive, it takes eight to lynch.

Bout 10 hours until the deadline.

Cmdr_King · « **Reply #298 on:** January 06, 2008, 07:48:56 AM »

Oy! Alex! There are only 15 alive. Would that not make it 8 to lynch?

Excal · « **Reply #299 on:** January 06, 2008, 07:58:18 AM »

Right then, if that's the case, I'm going to stick this out there right now.

##Vote: VSM

Aside from the points that Rat's brought up, it looks like VSM's cardflip is also going to net us the most information. He's been the most adamant person thus far on who is on which side (namely, his insistance that Sopko is town.) but also because of Cranbud's odd defense out of nowhere, and subsequent vote on Kilgamayan.

In fact, one other thing I noticed by going through VSM's posts, and Rat's summary, is that he's proud of shooting down our theories even as he doesn't add anything new for us to consider. He tries to say that our lines of reasoning are flawed, without doing much to correct them, or adding new content for us to consider. Which, intentional or not, leads to the end result of stifling conversation, and leaving us with less leads to go on.

As for why go after him instead of someone else. Well, at the moment, he seems the most suspicious of the people who are posting, as well as the one with the most interactions that will become meaningful after we know where his loyalties lay.

As for going after a lurker. Otter, has managed to present some content. Not up to his usual standards, perhaps. But he has posted, and that post was at least relevant.

Fnorder, hasn't had time to catch up just yet. Though, if he doesn't start joining in by the end of the day, he'll be fun to prod on Day 3.

And Nitori... Him I could be persuaded to go after. His posts are few, and there's little real content when he does post. The main reason I'm not after him is the same reason I'm not on Sopko's tail. It's the same bloody tells every single game. I'm never entirely sure if it's actually a scum tell I'm seeing, or just his usual self. And with someone who actually looks scummy sitting here, I'll give him and his maybes a pass for now.

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Author Topic: Discworld Mafia is go! (Read 115216 times)

Taishyr

Taishyr