Author Topic: Discworld Mafia is go! (Read 110856 times)

Strago · « **Reply #325 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:15:58 PM »

And.... hrm. Now Corwin's voted for Nitori and really turned things into a three-man race. And I just read back a bit and noticed that VSM said he wouldn't be around this morning, meaning his crucial doublevote isn't moving. Grrrargh. And a few of the blokes voting for Commander raise my suspicions at least a little... and I really don't see why we would want a no-lynch right now. And Nitori is, as always, hard to read but tending towards scummy, especially since the people voting for him right now look... better, on average, than the ones voting for VSM or CK. Aaaaand now I can't post any further before deadline.

Oof. So after that rambling glance into the thought process of Strago, here we go. Someone needs to get strung up, after all.

##UNVOTE: Cmdr_King
##VOTE: Nitori

Fingers crossed.

Shale · « **Reply #326 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:17:23 PM »

No, we lose our lynch on the next game day, from what Cid said. That would be Day 3, unless I'm grievously mistaken.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #327 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:17:36 PM »

Fire Phantasm: Nitori

Page 1: Gag vote.
Page 3: (1) Requests name change. Notes that CPU and Otter have been quiet. (2) Votes Otter.
Page 7: Provides thoughts on Corwin, Tom, and the QR/Sopko thing while decided to stick with Otter.
Page 13 (!): Grants Otter temporary amnesty, as it were. Calls out Unoriginal, CPU and myself for not posting much. Given he has gone 6 pages without a post this is somewhat hypocritical but the action is still a relatively good idea and it's not like he's going to call himself out. Votes Unoriginal.
Page 15: Provides thoughts on Strago/CK, Coppy/Corwin and CPU.
Page 18: Provides thoughts on CPU/Fnorder and the "Tom Trio". Annoyingly, "I'm not sure" prefaces both sets of thoughts. Votes VSM (what's the record for most legit votes in a row without unvotes in between them? >_>).
Page 20: Explains VSM vote by saying he wants more offense than defense from VSM.

Conclusion: Ehh...The 6-page absence thing stands out more to me than anything else, but I wouldn't consider it enough of a case against him to vote for him unless there was absolutely nothing else going on. He has at least provided his fair share of opinions - some were riding fences, some were not. I'm not inclined to vote for him over VSM or CK, but I do agree with Strago that he would look a good deal worse if VSM flipped town.

Corwin · « **Reply #328 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:19:04 PM »

That's not how it sounded from Cid's post, though I'll admit on rereading it's ambiguous. Alex did say it was today as a co-mod, however. I suppose all I can do here is ask for Cid's clarification here and for people to vote. Since I buy into VSM's townness, the one I'd prefer to see strung out of the current options is Nitori.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #329 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:25:14 PM »

I have to go drop my mom off at church. Be back in 20 minutes or so.

Carthrat · « **Reply #330 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:27:30 PM »

I checked the frontpage and it seems we actually get our lynch today even if we miss the deadline.

Nitori doesn't stick out to me like VSM does. What he's actually said seems to be somewhat paralell with my own thoughts. I'm not really taking the 'but he's always like this!' argument into consideration. I admit that I'm curious to see what he flips, but not curious enough. I'll admit now that had the no-lynch on deadline been likely to go through, I was ready to capitulate and switch to him, though.

<->

Strago, I weep. I really do. ;_;

Shale · « **Reply #331 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:30:59 PM »

Quote

I'm not inclined to vote for him over VSM or CK, but I do agree with Strago that he would look a good deal worse if VSM flipped town.

You say that, voting for VSM now...which is different from "lynch X, then lynch Y if X is town"...how, exactly? Either the arguments he's making are valid or they are not.

FoS: Kilgamayan.

Sierra · « **Reply #332 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:43:06 PM »

Quote from: Corwin on January 06, 2008, 03:19:04 PM

That's not how it sounded from Cid's post, though I'll admit on rereading it's ambiguous. Alex did say it was today as a co-mod, however. I suppose all I can do here is ask for Cid's clarification here and for people to vote. Since I buy into VSM's townness, the one I'd prefer to see strung out of the current options is Nitori.

The no lynch rule takes effect on day three. I didn't want to change the rules while a day was still in progress. So yes, whoever has the most votes today gets axed.

Shale · « **Reply #333 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:47:15 PM »

Arghle. Now I'm WIFOM'ing which of the three viable candidates looks worse because of that fallacy and getting nowhere. Nitori, who he doesn't want to touch today, but says he'd be glad to hit tomorrow if VSM is town? VSM, who's the first part of the "if not X then Y" sequence but seems to me, for metagamey reasons, the most likely of the three to be town (we've yet to see a scum multivoter)? Or CK, who he didn't pay much attention to at all except to say he wouldn't stand in the way of a lynch, and who's made a non-verifiable (as yet) roleclaim?

Gaaaaaah. My brain hurts.

Shale · « **Reply #334 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:49:15 PM »

And why is everyone so quiet all of a sudden? We're in a dead heat, people!

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #335 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:50:40 PM »

Quote from: Shale on January 06, 2008, 03:30:59 PM

Quote
I'm not inclined to vote for him over VSM or CK, but I do agree with Strago that he would look a good deal worse if VSM flipped town.

You say that, voting for VSM now...which is different from "lynch X, then lynch Y if X is town"...how, exactly? Either the arguments he's making are valid or they are not.

It's different because I'm not advocating lynching Nitori - I would still vote CK over him.

I agree that his arguments are either valid or not, but knowing the alignment of his targets allows us to better evaluate their validity. How often do we use past voting tendencies as part of future reasoning?

Shale · « **Reply #336 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:54:32 PM »

We use past votes in aggregate, and in conjunction with activity, timing, quality of arguments, etc, etc, etc - given that you can't expect a townie to know for certain if he's voting for scum or not, basing your impression of someone mainly on that question, and one instance of it to boot, is not good town play.

Shale · « **Reply #337 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:56:03 PM »

When I say "in aggregate" I mean looking at them over the long haul, looking for people who consistently do it, or do it when it matters. Accursed lack of editability.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #338 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:57:32 PM »

You act like VSM flipping town would complete erase my pre-existing opinion of Nitori. It would not. I know full well there's plenty else to look at in regards to him, I have done so, and I will do so again if necessary in the future.

Sierra · « **Reply #339 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:57:50 PM »

It's technically hammertime, but I'm getting dragged away for lunch with the family. Since things are deadlocked, you have a bit of extra time (~1 hour) to make up your minds. If it's still a tie when I get back, we Hatbot the lynchee. We don't want that, do we?

Shale · « **Reply #340 on:** January 06, 2008, 04:00:13 PM »

Quote

I wouldn't consider it enough of a case against him to vote for him unless there was absolutely nothing else going on.

I didn't get the impression that you saw "a lot to look at" there.

Bobbin Cranbud · « **Reply #341 on:** January 06, 2008, 04:06:07 PM »

Erg.

I still think Kilga's very aggressive pursuit of VSM is the most suspicious thing on Day 2, and I still don't see either VSM or CK as likely Scum. Both VSM and CK have claimed powerful roles.

I have moderate Town reads from VSM and CK and no read at all from Nitori, so I suppose I'm leaning toward voting him.

On the other hand, I'm not sure how much information we'd get from his demise and he hasn't had a chance to roleclaim (or has chosen not to roleclaim, which I guess could be sort of Scummy?).

QUICK thoughts?

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #342 on:** January 06, 2008, 04:09:40 PM »

Well, in retrospect, "If nothing else was going on" is a pretty stupid hypothetical because it's never going to be the case. It was meant more as a "It would not take a whole hell of a lot for someone to become more suspicious than Nitori in my eyes" statement.

From what I've seen of Nitori, the only strike against him is that 6-page absence. He has provided a respectful amount of opinions on other players and his seeming lack of posting is made up for by his posts generally being of decent length. Voting someone based purely on a 6-page absence is stupid when they've had somewhat consistent pacing and reasonable opinions otherwise.

Nitori has not posted a lot, but the vast majority of what he has said has not indicated to me that he's scum. If VSM flipped town, that would be another strike against him, but it would still not be enough for me to vote for him.

Shale · « **Reply #343 on:** January 06, 2008, 04:33:35 PM »

Bobbin, I think I can see where you're coming from on Kilga more now. <_< The backpedaling isn't impressing me much either - the difference between "looks a good deal worse" and "worth a vote" is not a huge one.

Shale · « **Reply #344 on:** January 06, 2008, 04:57:09 PM »

Five minutes to SUPER ULTRA MEGA DEADLINE, people. Is there no one who's not already voting for one of Nitori or VSM and has a strong opinion one way or the other?

(For what it's worth, I don't have a strong feeling either way. My suspect list goes CK-Kilga-Otter right now, with Soppy lurking around there somewhere.)

Yakumo · « **Reply #345 on:** January 06, 2008, 05:03:15 PM »

I don't like it, but I'm the only one around, apparently, that fits that description, and I'm inclined to believe VSM, and have no read at all on Nitori. So...

##Unvote: HunterSopko, ##Vote: Nitori

Bobbin Cranbud · « **Reply #346 on:** January 06, 2008, 05:14:07 PM »

That's Hammer, isn't it?

Shale · « **Reply #347 on:** January 06, 2008, 05:16:31 PM »

Not until a mod shows up and enforces the deadline cutoff, I think. At the moment it's six votes, with eight to lynch.

Yakumo · « **Reply #348 on:** January 06, 2008, 05:18:29 PM »

Our deadline is basically when Cid gets back, so if you've got a better idea, speak fast. >_>

Yakumo · « **Reply #349 on:** January 06, 2008, 05:22:20 PM »

You don't have a strong opinion, Shale? Looking back, you happen to be one of the people that hadn't voted for either, yet you called for someone else to make the decision for you? That doesn't look very good.

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Author Topic: Discworld Mafia is go! (Read 110856 times)