Author Topic: Discworld Mafia is go!  (Read 115251 times)

Kilgamayan

  • Celluloid Hero
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1059
  • Never feels any pain, never really dies
    • View Profile
    • This is the state to which I have been reduced.
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #375 on: January 07, 2008, 03:46:14 AM »
So, okay, let me finish with a really simple question directed at the VSM voters; CK hadn't really proven his identity, so I'll go easy on his train for right now.  Kilgamayan!  Carthrat!  Excal!  Why'd you keep your vote on VSM?  For what firm reason did you suspect doublevoting scum rather than the much more common doublevoting townie?  Please justify your vote, and while I'm at it, let me celebrate the new "Town must hammer" rule by voting for the one out of you that's rubbed me the wrongest so far.

I kept my vote on VSM as opposed to Nitori because VSM never actually gave me the opinions of people I was looking for. In my experience, it's harder to make up reasons to vote for people that you know aren't scum than to find reasons to vote for people whose alignment you don't know. Nitori has done his fair share, but VSM seemed almost to refuse to put forth public opinions on people. At such an early stage in the game where vote records are tiny and power roles have had little room to maneuver, the best way to form opinions about people are their actions and their opinions about others. The only thing VSM contributed to either of those was deciding Sopko was town and shooting down a few ideas, which someone else mentioned was not really conducive to discussion.

Also, I didn't enter the "double vote = autotown" mindset because (1) "Role X = autotown" is a terrible mindset to be in to begin with, and (2) when I had a double vote in the FFT game the Anonyvote was time released rather than instant like VSM's was.

As for VSM vs. CK, it was essentially a coinflip between the two for me.

Cranbud: I was aggressive after VSM because there was pretty much nothing going on. You yourself acknowledged that there was a noticeable lack of info. I had been feeling the same way, so I did something about it.

Why was I aggressive? Because I wanted pressure. What's going to be more effective in applying pressure, a rather passive "Talk!" followed by a "k I'm happy *vote switch*" after a couple posts or a pursuit until I get a response I'm happy with? As VSM and I discussed more and more, I had more and more from him to look at (and you and everyone else had more and more to look at from both of us).

Why VSM? I was dissatisfied by his lack on content on Day 1 and his Day 2 posts hadn't done anything to make me change my mind.

---

That being said, Nitori flipping scum leaves me without much reason to continue after VSM, because I can't see scum Nitori voting for scum VSM when he did. I think at this point I'd like to hear from Fnorder some more, as well as Excal; while my initial impression of Excal was a positive one, I can't say I disagree with Otter's assessment that he's been "fading in the background", and I've been wrong about plenty of people already anyway. :V


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Excal

  • Chibi Terror That Flaps in the Night
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 2603
  • Let's Get Adorable
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #376 on: January 07, 2008, 04:22:53 AM »
So, okay, let me finish with a really simple question directed at the VSM voters; CK hadn't really proven his identity, so I'll go easy on his train for right now.  Kilgamayan!  Carthrat!  Excal!  Why'd you keep your vote on VSM?  For what firm reason did you suspect doublevoting scum rather than the much more common doublevoting townie?  Please justify your vote, and while I'm at it, let me celebrate the new "Town must hammer" rule by voting for the one out of you that's rubbed me the wrongest so far.  ##VOTE: Excal

My answer is simple enough.  I had gone to sleep.  As you may have noticed, my last post was one mentioning I was about to head to bed for the night, and I probably wouldn't be up before day had ended.  More to the point, why did I vote for VSM?  Because Rat had caught him in several contradictions, along with his stance which was one which was effectively opposed to the stance one needs in order to effectively play as town.  Basically, one of not trying to put forth theories, for fear that you might be wrong. Tossed into this was the lack of content in the first two days, which he was getting called on by a few different people.

Another reason why I voted for VSM when I did was because we had, at that point, received word that if we didn't have consensus by lynch, then we'd no vote automatically.  So, in the spirit of that belief, I decided to vote for the person I found the scummiest at the time.

Sierra

  • N I G H T M A R E E Y E S
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 5135
  • Go get dead, angel face
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #377 on: January 07, 2008, 04:45:11 AM »
Update!

Bobbin Cranbud (1): Yakumo
Excal (1): Otter
Kilgamayan (1): Bobbin Cranbud

With thirteen alive, it takes seven to lynch.

There are 41.25 hours until the deadline.

Hunter Sopko

  • Heavily in Debt
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 4556
  • Hai, Kazuma-desu
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #378 on: January 07, 2008, 04:49:56 AM »
Blah. I lose on the coinflip between CK and Nitori. Though at least we know now that scum can have seemingly town roles, and it'll take more than roleclaiming to root out scum.

Excal's actually been pretty active while he's been awake. He doesn't post a ton, but his posts have content, so I wouldn't really call it slinking into the background.

Kilga's latching onto Otter's thing about Excal fading into the background seems more like an attempt to pass the buck than to really show support.

Corwin

  • My Natsuki....
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #379 on: January 07, 2008, 06:04:54 AM »
Another day, and we finally get scum. Excellent! No concrete thoughts on mere skimming, on to reading in detail....

Corwin

  • My Natsuki....
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #380 on: January 07, 2008, 06:45:26 AM »
The arguments against Nitori were terribly unpersuasive, Otter, in fact. Aside from his puzzling vote for VSM and all surrounding it (the timing, the reasoning, etc) he didn't really ping as scum all that much. The arguments for voting VSM after his roleclaim and apparent proof of said roleclaim, over a lurker that seemed a touch shifty do seem to matter, the way I see it. I'm glad he ended up on the block as well. So those who still preferred VSM, defended Nitori or ended up wasting their vote despite being here warrant further inspection. I'm sure I'll find that it's already in progress once I get far enough down the thread.

On a similar note, I'm glad you're actually around this day. What happened the other day, though? Why did your vote end up going to waste, and the low participation?

Agreement on Excal quasi-fading into the background, but I don't get a particular scumly vibe from that alone. Of course, voting to get people to talk is something I subscribe to, so let's wait and see what Excal has to say. And I don't mean just in a single post made in his defense, but about the situation and other people as well.

Fnorder. He's still playing, right? It sounds like he had ample time to catch up as a sub, and he nevertheless ignored my request to give us any kind of read on him. Don't know what to make of him voting for a scum, then removing said vote once it got more momentum from Tai. Therefore, I'll request again that he talks, backed up with a vote. ##Vote: Fnorder. Delurk or hang, please.

Kilga's response is a bit troubling ( http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2506#msg2506 ). The way it reads to me, he's saying that buying into VSM's claim for meta reasons is a big no-no, and then he proceeds to explain why he didn't... using other meta reasons. Uh-huh. So we can't read into role distribution (including in past mafia games), but reading into role behavior (including in past mafia games) is right and proper? If by some chance I'm misunderstanding or misrepresenting your argument, please clarify this point for us. There's also the logical fallacy that a double vote means autotown. It doesn't. However, having a claim of a town-favoring role and a demonstration of it do carry some weight in the decision. Enough to dismiss the entire thing after consideration? Perhaps, but it's not all black and white (he's 100% town or he must be lying scum). I'm not sure I get why your coinflip came to CK and VSM, while keeping Nitori entirely out of it. Perhaps we disagree on Nitori's usefulness up to that point.

Worth noting Rat's reasoning for his voting is pretty similar to Kilga's.

Comment on Sopko's post above: it's not that scum have town roles, but that they can have town flavor. Unless you're saying framer is normally a town role?

Carthrat

  • Max Level Arch Priestess
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1260
  • I'm a goddess! I'm really a goddess!
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #381 on: January 07, 2008, 07:39:43 AM »
Corwin: You can just say 'everyone who didn't vote for Nitori' warrants further inspection. While it's true everyone deserves to be looked at, this doesn't really single stuff out (that's a lot of people!) NONETHELESS there is obviously more to your post than that. So.

Yakumo and Strago both have relatively acceptable reasons for hitting Nitori. I *personally* still do not understand why VSM looked like a substantial townie, but I'm really going to have to concede to the majority here; I've nothing to say about him that I haven't already. Kilga.. Kilga still seems to be under the gun. I do think it's odd that he mentioned the time-release thing; surely that's just the vagaries of various GMs? I'm not sure what it has to do with the role being town or not. Why did you?
WHAT BENEFITS CAN ONE GET FROM SCIENTOLOGY?

Corwin

  • My Natsuki....
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #382 on: January 07, 2008, 07:55:22 AM »
That's not what I'm saying and you know it. The group I'm intending to examine is much smaller than 'everyone who didn't vote Nitori'.

There were people who let their votes go to waste to avoid committing one way or the other, or while waiting for others to make the call for them. I'm specifically talking about people who were around and posting around the sudden deathmode (5 vs 5, an hour or so left to go) but didn't vote Nitori or VSM to tip the scale either way. Is that something one shouldn't review?

Then, we also have people who didn't buy into VSM's claim, or that Nitori would be a preferable lynching target than VSM. It's not something I'd lynch people for, but what's wrong with asking them why they did this? Let's take this a bit further. What exactly has changed from the previous day's closing hours to now? VSM hardly flipped, so we don't have any more solid confirmation of him than we did at that time. You believed VSM was scummy, correct? Does that mean you intend to go after him today as well? You say:

Quote
I *personally* still do not understand why VSM looked like a substantial townie, but I'm really going to have to concede to the majority here;  I've nothing to say about him that I haven't already.

That would seem to imply that yes, you still think he's scummy, but that you're deciding not to go after him by succumbing to groupthink? That isn't like you.

Carthrat

  • Max Level Arch Priestess
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1260
  • I'm a goddess! I'm really a goddess!
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #383 on: January 07, 2008, 08:12:17 AM »
Ah, you mean people who were specifically around at that time, I didn't catch that.

I guess part of what I'm trying to do is ascertain that people had good reasons for voting or not voting for VSM/Nitori *at that time*. The flips and final votecount do point to Nitori hitting VSM pretty early, and the odds of two scum being lynch candidates seems pretty low, hence why I was willing to cut him a bit of slack here. The most I can do to VSM right now is apply pressure, which I wll do by asking him a question: Who do you think is scummy right now, VSM?
WHAT BENEFITS CAN ONE GET FROM SCIENTOLOGY?

Excal

  • Chibi Terror That Flaps in the Night
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 2603
  • Let's Get Adorable
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #384 on: January 07, 2008, 08:54:52 AM »
Looking back over the record between when I made my vote, and Day 2 ended, I found a few interesting things that I suspect ought to be cleared up.

Cranbud - You're the one person who posted in between when El Cid said we had an indeterminate amount of time before he hatbotted the final result, and Yakumo deciding to hammer.  You said you were about to vote, for Nitori no less, but Yakumo barely beat you to it.  What I'm wondering is, you had an hour.  Why did you only post that one time, and not respond to any of the posts made.  Especially when you specifically requested quick thoughts?



Quote
I was going to vote for VSM, but posts came in while I was typing. I agree losing a lynch is seriously bad news, and that's the overriding priority. I feel worse about CK than I do about VSM, and they're one vote apart. If we miss the lynch by a vote, I'll feel dumb afterwards.


##UNVOTE Nitori
##VOTE Cmdr. King

That quote is post #302 in this thread, made by Mad Fnorder.  The interesting thing about this vote is that it drove CK to one vote below VSM, came five minutes after Shale's vote for CK, and was promptly followed by CK's roleclaim. 

Now, let's take a look at this for a moment.  CK had been under fire for most of the day, but the heat was starting to die by that point as people like Rat and Kilga were starting to take VSM to task for his stances.  There was some other suspicions, but, on the whole, CK wasn't looking that bad, and he was just one name among many at 2 votes, along with Sopko and Nitori.  Then, Shale lands a vote on him for the following reason.

Quote
Meanwhile, CK hasn't done anything to change my opinion of him. Still posting an average amount but saying little, and not even doing much to flesh out a suspicion or line of thinking, much less committing to one.

Oddly enough, the same complaint was being tossed at other people, such as VSM who was closer to lynch at the time.  But he never really says what he has on VSM besides just chiding his method.  Even more interesting is the fact that Shale didn't just pull the 'good townie' routine at the end of Day 1, holding us all up so that there could be a last minute reveal which could have effected absolutely nothing.  In fact, the practical effect of that would be to provide a pulpit where some who had said little all along could show up out of nowhere, tell us we're all wrong and here's why, and be able to change absolutely nothing, because we'd all have to first read it, agree on it, and change our vote before deadline hit.  Consider this when you look at Shale's antics at the end of Day 2.  A deadlock between two people, neither of whom he has a stake in.  And he lets it go to the wire in the hopes that someone else might make a better choice, preferring that Hatbot choose instead of himself.

Quote
It behooves the town for everyone to vote and make concrete arguments every day. And meanwhile it behooves scum to leave as little paper trail as possible, so I can't say that argument really endears you to me.

Oddly, a quote from Shale's post where he votes on CK.  And yet, by day's close, he'd rather let Hatbot have final say, then at least letting the day end with a human calling the shot, and a record of who to take to task for the results.

Pair this up with the other person in the duo, Mad Fnorder.  Now, the arguments against him are less complete in some ways because he is a replacement.  However, CPU was already flailing before Fnorder came in, and pulled a similar stunt with Evil Tom.  Not to mention, Fnorder's still quiet, even after having had a fair chunk of time in order to get caught up.  His vote, as seen above, says little to nothing, and I cannot recall any true content that he's posted since.

Now, I'm suspicious of both of these people.  But, in the spirit of letting the people who talk continue to talk, I'm going to focus my vote on the silent partner.

##Vote: Mad Fnorder

Veryslightlymad

  • CONCEPTUALIZATION [Challenging: Success]
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1141
  • Shitposts are a type of art for webforums
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #385 on: January 07, 2008, 09:21:41 AM »
Ah, you mean people who were specifically around at that time, I didn't catch that.

I guess part of what I'm trying to do is ascertain that people had good reasons for voting or not voting for VSM/Nitori *at that time*. The flips and final votecount do point to Nitori hitting VSM pretty early, and the odds of two scum being lynch candidates seems pretty low, hence why I was willing to cut him a bit of slack here. The most I can do to VSM right now is apply pressure, which I wll do by asking him a question: Who do you think is scummy right now, VSM?

Well, Fnorder just isn't here, but that's a cop-out answer.

Two people stick out as weird, and for opposite reasons, and both for how they're responding to me.

Kilga really DOES seem like he's oddly pursuing me, or at least that he was, over other people. This might just be a persecution complex or something at work because.... well, it's me. I'm his target. But I feel like there are more obvious lurkers (Hi, Fnorder!) out there that deserve mentions.

I'm kind of weirded out by Cranbud jumping to my defense so much. I'm grateful for it, and it probably saved my life for another day, but he's oddly passionate about it. This might be me not knowing Bobbin too well personally, or from other games. I am pretty suspicious, actually. And part of why I don't come after Kilga more is I don't want to affiliate myself with Bobbin, in case there's any substance to what suspicions I do have.

Hunter Sopko

  • Heavily in Debt
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 4556
  • Hai, Kazuma-desu
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #386 on: January 07, 2008, 09:53:47 AM »
Right, Corwin. Flavor/character/whatever you want to call it, not role. Angua is... a solid protagonist as far as the books go, so again I'll just reiterate that roleclaims alone might not be as helpful as in the past.

Emphasis on silent partner on Fnorder in Excal's analysis. Fnorder has been seriously quiet for the day and it's starting to worry me.

Taishyr

  • Guest
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #387 on: January 07, 2008, 12:02:05 PM »
You know, I thought I'd get this post done far earlier in the day. Meeeeeh. Figures I get this far into my studies that I forget to respond. Okay, let's see here...

Excal still gives me a town vibe at this point. Otter, a few questions re: your vote...

1) For clarification, your reasons for voting for Excal are the vote on VSM (who you believe is town) and because he's sliding under your radar. Correct? Or did I miss something in the post outlining your suspicions?

2) Okay, so presuming you remember little to none of what Excal has said. What do you think of the arguments people are making against Kilgamayan, and what of Carthrat? Myself, I find Rat to be more loquacious this game , and don't think Kilga's offense against VSM is really on solid ground.

Okay. That out of the way... there are three people I'm looking at currently: Shale, Kilgamayan and Bobbin Cranbud.

1) Shale. This is partially in synch with Excal's line of thinking, but what I'm looking at currently is a difference between...

...
VSM: somebody's going to die today, and you're reading the same thread as the rest of us. You're not the only one who doesn't see much concrete evidence, but the only way we're going to get evidence is to pressure people and, eventually, review the day's arguments in light of how the lynched player flips. It behooves the town for everyone to vote and make concrete arguments every day. And meanwhile it behooves scum to leave as little paper trail as possible, so I can't say that argument really endears you to me. ...

... Nitori: I agree that his vote for VSM is weird...hell, weird enough for a FoS. Explain yourself, Kappa - and while you're at it, talk some about people who aren't you or VSM. ...

This post, here...

Arghle. Now I'm WIFOM'ing which of the three viable candidates looks worse because of that fallacy and getting nowhere. Nitori, who he doesn't want to touch today, but says he'd be glad to hit tomorrow if VSM is town? VSM, who's the first part of the "if not X then Y" sequence but seems to me, for metagamey reasons, the most likely of the three to be town (we've yet to see a scum multivoter)? Or CK, who he didn't pay much attention to at all except to say he wouldn't stand in the way of a lynch, and who's made a non-verifiable (as yet) roleclaim?

Gaaaaaah. My brain hurts.

...and this one:

Yes, I don't have aa strong opinion one way or the other - they're about equal in my eyes, and my choice wouldn't be much less random than the Hatbotting Cid threatened. If you want a nigh-random decision between the two, I could do that, but I'd rather leave it up to someone who might have seen something I haven't.

These three posts... mmm. I suppose what I find most bizarre about them is that you FoS'd Nitori without FoSing VSM, got into a debate with yourself regarding Kilga seeming to throw suspicion on all three, and then said you had no strong opinion one way or another, when it seems like just a bit ago that you seemed to be favoring Nitori.  A few questions, thus, regarding this:

1) Reading it, -something- lessened your suspicion on Nitori; either that or your suspicion toward Nitori was feigned. Being kind to you for the purpose of this question and presuming the former, what was it that changed your mind? Especially with Kilga's offense on VSM (you seem to distrust Kilgamayan right now, something I'll look at later), if you do not trust Kilga's judgment (or at least his attack), why would you still entertain VSM as a target? In other words, what kept VSM on the list for you? Most of the argument against VSM seemed to have stemmed - directly or indirectly - from Kilgamayan's focus on him.

2) As Excal has noted: why did you keep your vote on CK as it went down to the deadline? Especially with your comment to VSM beforehand... mrf. This is just really, really offputting to me. I don't get the change in mentality here, and it honestly does feel like a slip from here.

These two things together... for now, Vote: Shale. It just doesn't feel right at all, to me.

Asdf, and I should finish my studies for the night and turn in early for the final. Quick notes on Kilga and Bobbin, with a promise to expand on this soon: Firstly, VSM points out, quite fairly, that Kilga's piledrive focus on VSM is incredibly odd, and I have to agree; I'm having troubles remembering points against other people Kilga made during that time span, if there were any. And Bobbin Cranbud... the same problem as I have with what Shale did; the lack of vote there feels... off, especially with the quick replies asked for. Mmmm. Something further for me to chew on.

Study time now.

Taishyr

  • Guest
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #388 on: January 07, 2008, 12:03:11 PM »
##Vote: Shale. i kaan haas fourmaat?

Kilgamayan

  • Celluloid Hero
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1059
  • Never feels any pain, never really dies
    • View Profile
    • This is the state to which I have been reduced.
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #389 on: January 07, 2008, 12:27:39 PM »
Kilga's response is a bit troubling ( http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2506#msg2506 ). The way it reads to me, he's saying that buying into VSM's claim for meta reasons is a big no-no, and then he proceeds to explain why he didn't... using other meta reasons. Uh-huh. So we can't read into role distribution (including in past mafia games), but reading into role behavior (including in past mafia games) is right and proper? If by some chance I'm misunderstanding or misrepresenting your argument, please clarify this point for us. There's also the logical fallacy that a double vote means autotown. It doesn't. However, having a claim of a town-favoring role and a demonstration of it do carry some weight in the decision. Enough to dismiss the entire thing after consideration? Perhaps, but it's not all black and white (he's 100% town or he must be lying scum). I'm not sure I get why your coinflip came to CK and VSM, while keeping Nitori entirely out of it. Perhaps we disagree on Nitori's usefulness up to that point.

I didn't say metagaming was bad - in fact, if you'll ask many of the people here I've played with, they can tell you I tend to do it a good deal myself. I didn't discount "doublevote = autotown" strictly for metagame reasons, I discounted it because two metagaming trains of thought crashed into each other ("double vote is a town role" vs "town double votes are time released") and the third idea about assuming things to be autotown is simply not stupid play (as you've agreed). Ultimately, my aggregate metagame info gave me zero read either way on the roleclaim.

Off to work now, sorry.


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Strago

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 839
  • Scarfregist
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #390 on: January 07, 2008, 02:44:56 PM »
Well, I was going to sit on thought for a while longer in hopes that someone might trip themselves up a bit, but after Taishyr's recent big ol' post I feel like I ought to add to a cause that I feel at least somewhat strongly about, at the moment. This is a post of Shale's at the very bottom of page 23, quoted in full.

Five minutes to SUPER ULTRA MEGA DEADLINE, people. Is there no one who's not already voting for one of Nitori or VSM and has a strong opinion one way or the other?

(For what it's worth, I don't have a strong feeling either way. My suspect list goes CK-Kilga-Otter right now, with Soppy lurking around there somewhere.)

To me this looks like a final push to move people from Nitori to CK, which makes a lot of sense given when it was made. I also find it notable that Shale has never mentioned any suspicion of Nitori at all. Now, I've gotten burned by gut feeling combining with a lot of little things like these before; hell, it was a lot of little things that led to my suspecting CK and we all saw how that turned out. But this combined with Tai's post and Shale's general lack of content Day 1 and early Day 2 makes me extremely wary of him. For the moment, it's enough for a vote from me.

##VOTE: Shale


Shale

  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 5800
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #391 on: January 07, 2008, 04:42:29 PM »
Quote from: Taishyr
1) Reading it, -something- lessened your suspicion on Nitori; either that or your suspicion toward Nitori was feigned. Being kind to you for the purpose of this question and presuming the former, what was it that changed your mind? Especially with Kilga's offense on VSM (you seem to distrust Kilgamayan right now, something I'll look at later), if you do not trust Kilga's judgment (or at least his attack), why would you still entertain VSM as a target? In other words, what kept VSM on the list for you? Most of the argument against VSM seemed to have stemmed - directly or indirectly - from Kilgamayan's focus on him.

I don't FoS much - I vote or I make arguments and trust people to read the things and respond. Nitori not reading arguments seemed to be part of the problem, so I put out the FoS to hopefully get his attention and make him respond to the point. VSM was already involved in the discussion and responding.

You're right that I wasn't exactly Kilga's biggest fan there, but how do you translate mistrust of one person into a choice between two people he seems to be implicating? The line I latched on to was "if VSM is town, Nitori looks scummy." The entire second post you quoted boils down to the fact that mistrusting Kilga's motives, especially based on that statement, is not helpful in deciding between the two targets, which I don't think is all that much of a stretch.

I kept my vote on CK because I still thought he was the best choice and didn't see a good basis to choose between Nitori and VSM. Obviously I was wrong about CK.

[quote="Strago]I also find it notable that Shale has never mentioned any suspicion of Nitori at all.[/quote]
Except for the FoS I mentioned above, plus the point (implicit, I know, but still there) that he and VSM were roughly on equal footing with me? Neither one was all that high on the list - half the point of posting those names was to point out that none of them were Nitori or VSM - but I didn't see him as totally clean. I guess I should have talked more about Nitori, but there didn't seem to be all that much to talk about.
"Sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology."
-Ponder Stibbons

[23:02] <Veryslightlymad> CK dreams about me starring in porno?
[23:02] <CmdrKing> Pretty sure.

Mad Fnorder

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 514
  • Hee-ho- Hiiii~
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #392 on: January 07, 2008, 04:57:24 PM »
Eep. Every needs to CALM DOWN, PLEASE. To explain my vote switch from Nitori to CK, I threw the very first vote on Nitori to provoke talking, in the standard tactic. When the deadline started to seem to be an issue, and it being late for me (Because honestly, my sleep schedule is messed up from all the Bioschock I've been playing), before it was clarified by Cideon, I decided to throw a vote on someone who seemed more likely to actually build momentum. Originally I was just going to shrug and throw my vote on VSM, but someone posted during that time, throwing another vote to CK, putting him in range. I had already stated long before in my first reading of the topic that Strago's analysis had appeal for me, where I wasn't quite seeing the VSM argument. Thus the voteswitch, where it remained until Hammer.


Corwin

  • My Natsuki....
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #393 on: January 07, 2008, 05:19:33 PM »
That's the defense, I suppose. Please go on the offensive, now, and respond to my (and others') request to talk about other people. Thoughts on Shale and his behavior during the deciding time the previous day, plus the related arguments today? On Kilga? Rat? Anyone I haven't mentioned that you'd like to talk about?

Mad Fnorder

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 514
  • Hee-ho- Hiiii~
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #394 on: January 07, 2008, 05:23:22 PM »
Working on it as we speak. I wanted to go over the close of Day 2 with a comb.

Mad Fnorder

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 514
  • Hee-ho- Hiiii~
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #395 on: January 07, 2008, 05:59:12 PM »
Okay, so, my thoughts on the field, starting at least wordy to most. Note- as I said, this is mostly focusing on the Day 2 finale.

Yakumo- Rather quiet. No voting irregularities, Null read for now.

Otter- ALSO rather quiet. Needs more Otterslaughts (since that phrase was coined earlier in this game).

VSM- Thinking Town for now. This may be influenced by the nature of the name and power role, but it's a theorem I'm willing to act on for now.

Taishyr - Townie vibe. He has solid investigative posts with narrow focus. I'm reluctant to ask him to post more broadly if it dilutes his eye otherwise.

Excal- Standard play, really. Did vote for VSM, with reasoning being "This gets us the most info", which is appealing- I admit I thought about it too- but at the same time could be scum building momentum on VSM. *eyes*

Corwin- Effort points for some of his points. However, I have a bad feeling. It's pure gut though, so right now I'm just keeping an eye on you.

Strago- Some good posts also. SLIGHT positive read- I did notice some random swipes a bit earlier in the topic that didn't seem to fit with the rest of the framework.

Cranbud- Quiet but with a reason. The only notable thing is the swing at Kilga and defense of VSM in the beginning of the Day 2 VSM vs. Kilga tussle. Dead last on the suspicious list quiet side.

Kilga- Tons of effort in their posts. quotes collated by page, discussing the cases on people- but he's done case reviews and then never gone back to them. And then there's the VSM piledrive. It's entirely possible to be helpful in that manner without saying actually much. It could be smoke. Suspicion rising.

Sopko- Okay now. Kind of scattershot at time, has a small throwdown with Corwin, then has some discussion on good Townie play, and... the fight doesn't mean much. It could even be an attempt to seperate him and Corwin in order to "spread out." Last, his vote for CK doesn't make much sense to me- admittedly could just a typo, but the phrasing is odd-

In the interests of a vote... none of the people at the moment are on my suspect list (CK or Nitori)... but CK, vis a vis Shale, feels like a right scumbus to me, as CK jumps out at me at the moment more than Nitori... so...
##Vote: CK

He then stands his ground in the face in the face of the roleclaim and kicks back. I've never FoS'd before, but here's one at you, Soppy.

Corwin

  • My Natsuki....
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #396 on: January 07, 2008, 06:48:44 PM »
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2460#msg2460

Quote
I was writing my 'well, I guess nobody is going to vote, so here's the Nitori hammer...' vote for Nitori and the board informed me of your vote.  Since I was thinking it was hammer and we were supposed to stop talking, I didn't bother posting said vote.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2470#msg2470

Quote
As I said in the post immediately following what I took to be your hammer, I thought that was the end of the day.  I exited the board afterwards and didn't get back on until nightfall.

Even if we assume that to be true (a skimming of the last couple of pages at the time would've cleared things up, what with Cid's modpost/vote count update and all), this is what bothers me:

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2424#msg2424

Your post of 'That's Hammer, isn't it?' is billed as « Reply #346 on: January 06, 2008, 07:14:07 PM »

Shale's follow-up post saying 'Not until a mod shows up and enforces the deadline cutoff, I think. At the moment it's six votes, with eight to lynch.' is timed at « Reply #347 on: January 06, 2008, 07:16:31 PM »

I don't know about you, but I refresh the mafia board a few times, certainly when I'm about to leave (particularly after posting a question to the board). I believe I'm not alone in this. It usually takes me a couple minutes (allowing for reloading times and such) before I'm satisfied and I give up for the day. The answer to your question came as back-to-back as they do, and yet you still didn't see it? Didn't stick around for it for a bit?

I suppose if you want to claim you were being rhetorical... but it just doesn't read that way to me. Poor attention overall to the rules specified by the mod to resolve our confusion over the lynch/no lynch situation of day 2, the voting record that was conveniently posted nearby and one doesn't really need to work hard to hunt down, not seeing the lynch through; it seems either as negligent/bad town play and at a pretty crucial time for us during day 2, or scum play.

Not voting for you yet since I want to see you talk more rather than create a train with my vote that would snowball without giving you a chance to react.

Quote
Speaking of Cranbud and Kilga, I'd like to hear what other people have to say about the Kilga post I focused on yesterday/this morning (depending on your definition of "day").

Shale, I'm afraid I'm not sure which post you're talking about, or how far back I need to go to look for it. Due to our timezone differences, using 'day' is indeed useless as an indicator to me. Did you mean this? http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2405#msg2405

P.S.
Particularly annoyed at myself for sharing Bobbin's suspicions of Kilga, as an aside. Not sure what to make of this yet. At least I find myself in company with VSM, whom I tentatively trust. And on the subject of tentative trust, there's also Tai, for the record.

Corwin

  • My Natsuki....
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #397 on: January 07, 2008, 06:54:44 PM »
Huh. And the most important part isn't immediately clear on rereading, without following the links. The 'you' mostly speaks to Bobbin in my previous post.

And since I'm posting again, here's a question to Fnorder. Now that we've seen your analysis on the players, why not vote for Sopko instead of using an ineffective FoS? I'm not trying to claim FoS are ineffective as a whole, mind, but so far we have people at two votes, so a mere fingering at someone who is quite safe doesn't seem all that likely to me to achieve the desire effect. Please explain your reasoning here.

Yakumo

  • Moderator
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 1935
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #398 on: January 07, 2008, 07:00:54 PM »
Blargh.  Half the day gone and we're shotgunning five people.  Well, let's see if I can trim down the options a bit, shall we?

I am Corporal C. W. St. John Nobbs, better known as "Nobby".  I tend to "investigate" unlocked houses during nights on the job.  Last night, Mr. Cranbud carelessly left his house open, and I learned that he and I have the same role, Rolecop.  Now, what would you say the odds are that we're on the same side?  I'm thinking not high.

Corwin

  • My Natsuki....
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #399 on: January 07, 2008, 07:17:19 PM »
Interesting, so your claim is that either you're lying and Bobbin flipping reveals you as scum, or you're right and Bobbin would be one? And in both cases, we trade a townie for a scum?

On a related note, who left their house unlocked the first night?