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Author Topic: Discworld Mafia is go!  (Read 110841 times)

Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #475 on: January 08, 2008, 03:58:59 PM »
...I accidentally hit post when double-clicking on text there. The last sentence is supposed to read:

Honestly not sure what to make of it, but the kneejerk reaction is that he wants an excuse to ignore Soppy.
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Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #476 on: January 08, 2008, 04:55:31 PM »
Oh, one other thing.

Cranbud was around at the end of day 2, with everything tied between Nitori and VSM, and didn't cast a vote. Seeing as he could have bought some decent townie cred by (effectively) hammering scum in sudden death, and if both VSM and Nitori were scum there'd be no reason to dodge the choice, that's enough to clear up any lingering doubts I had about VSM.
"Sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology."
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Corwin

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #477 on: January 08, 2008, 08:08:17 PM »
Let's see. If Kilga is to be believed (just the regular Mafia suspicion here, nothing particular I'm going on), Shale is either Town or Godfather? Okay.

Sopko still looks somewhat bad to me. I questing his hammering and his decision to do so before some of us have weighed in in full (as at least I mentioned that I intended to do so once Bobbin's response came in). It was hardly to defend Bobbin, or to debate the case more. Unlike Day 1, where delaying the lynch to talk was a nonsensical idea to me, here more information could have been gained based on the revelations. For example, we could've pressed Bobbin to reveal what supposed power Strago may or may not have. Had he responded correctly, we could then confirm (post-Bobbin lynch) that he did in fact investigate Strago one night, and didn't lie about that part. Since he was pretty unanimously suspected as scum by the point of hammer, it's not like scum would get any new information, while we could certainly benefit. As things stand, I'm not sure whether VSM's theory on why Bobbin supported him works -- Bobbin avoided naming him, and we got nothing contradicting his claims about the people he investigated (yes, aside from him being a lying scum). Furthermore, Yakumo didn't get to leave a message in a bottle, much like a zombie post, only made ahead of time. It was likely that if he turned out town, he would not live past the night. I certainly would have liked him to have a chance to pitch in with all his theories in full before we all went ahead and lynched Bobbin.

I could have summarized that entire paragraph by saying, "Sopko, here's the new reason I don't like you, please explain your actions. (And, err, talk more.)"

Moving on. Otter is still absent. At some point he'll have to contribute the way I'd expect a human to or get voted off the island. Not while there are better leads so far, however. Ditto for Fnorder.

Actually. Worse for Fnorder. I have much hate for his continual lurking habits, but there is something he did say that bothers me (aside from his vague OMGUS hunch on me after I voted for him that he never bothered to explain when Rat asked him about it). Here it is:

Quote
Cranbud- Quiet but with a reason. The only notable thing is the swing at Kilga and defense of VSM in the beginning of the Day 2 VSM vs. Kilga tussle. Dead last on the suspicious list quiet side.

(emphasis mine)

So, umm, Bobbin was at the very bottom of Fnorder's suspects? It doesn't look good to me at all. And then, we get this as eventual follow up:

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2603#msg2603

This comes after Yakumo's claim, and Fnorder talks of how he now isn't too sure of his theory about VSM. "this was based on my theory of thinking VSM was town as well. " is a helpful excerpt from that post, followed by this one: "If Bobbin's bad, that makes me doubt my VSM theory". It might be plausible, I'll admit... but if scum were trying to get us to cast doubt on those we mostly believe to be town, this would be precisely the way to go about it. Bobbin was about to flip, and scum knew it. So why not attach someone we have looked at as likely-town to him as he went down?

P.S.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2620#msg2620

This is Fnorder on Shale. He missed him once in his round up. In fact, he missed him a second time, and had to be reminded of it again before he finally got to the only person he omitted from his analysis. And then, he says he has no read on him. In fact, I only noticed this after reading Shale's recent posts on Bobbin doing something similar for an excuse to ignore Sopko. This doesn't implicate Shale on its own, I feel (unless Fnorder flips scum, of course), and isn't here as part of a case against Fnorder. It's just a reminder for the future, should he flip one day the way I feel he is, if I won't be around to make the observation then.

Still no read on Excal (that's not to say I can't read him, but that I see signs going both ways). Likewise for Rat; the kneejerk reaction of AlwaysScum! is hard to avoid, and I think he's good enough to play the same way however his alignment is, which only adds to the pain of figuring him out. Strago feels townish, but not to the degree I get from VSM and Tai. Speaking of VSM, would like to hear more from you, particularly on this and on Kilga.

Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #478 on: January 08, 2008, 08:27:05 PM »
The reason I haven't said much is that recent events have pretty much blown my mind. I did have a hunch that Cranbud had an investigative role- and I turned out to be right. It explained his choice of targetting at the beginning of the VSM-Kilga fight. When Yakko revealed, I was... frankly, confused. I even contemplated that it might be one scum sacrificing another (Even on request, if Cranbud was just too busy to keep up), and now, with Shale off the table (in theory) I'm sort of lost.

Corwin

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #479 on: January 08, 2008, 08:33:53 PM »
Since you're the only one around right now, apparently, and you're talking again (always on prompting, but whatever works)... Fnorder, what made you consider Shale to be on the table, out of curiousity? I just quoted you saying that you had a null read on him, and that was before Kilga's roleclaim. Sure, he was on the table for some of us... but you never indicated this.

So, if he was indeed someone you had been considering, please provide the reasons why. If not, please explain your recent post.

Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #480 on: January 08, 2008, 09:23:53 PM »
When Yakko revealed, I was... frankly, confused. I even contemplated that it might be one scum sacrificing another (Even on request, if Cranbud was just too busy to keep up)

Okay, that struck a chord. Mainly because it's an entirely plausible explanation for the fact that both Cranbud and Nitori went after CPU early on, but backed off completely when Fnorder took over without so much as testing the waters to see if people would still vote for the new guy on the basis of the old player's behavior, even though if he was scum before, he'd still be scum then. Didn't notice that before because I didn't think to go back and check Nitori's votes on CPU, but...hm.
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Hunter Sopko

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #481 on: January 08, 2008, 10:07:07 PM »
I don't quite get the whole "didn't give people enough time to weigh in" argument, Corwin. Between the time Cranbud was put into hammer range and the time I hammered him, there was almost TWO PAGES of discussion. If you hadn't put in your two cents in all that, then I'm sorry. I said it when I voted. We were at an impasse, and barring the lack of some more cops weighing in or other likewise new information, there wasn't much new information to go on.

Yakko had pretty much already given his theories. Pressing Cranbud on revealing Strago's power? No. It's true that since Cranbud was scum then they probably know anyway, but if Strago is in that position that he needs to then he can reveal it himself. You never know what position the scum are in or games they might be playing, so reveals like that aren't always as helpful as you think.

As far as the Bobbin supporting VSM theory, it was most likely a breadcrumb to get people to either suspect VSM after Bobbin was gone, or get VSM to trust him. Either way, I don't see much in it. You actually answered your own question later in your own post, since Bobbin had been doing it earlier than before he was getting voted.

I'm wary of the people trying to pin any sort of situation we're in today simply because of my hammer. If there was more to say, I don't understand why people didn't just say it when they had the chance. "Because you didn't give them the chance to!" is just a cop out.

Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #482 on: January 08, 2008, 10:22:08 PM »
The only things I was considering for Shale was the vote-mongering at the end of Day 2, which alot of people talked about, and I thought I commented on. Losing a lynch=bad, but we weren't, but I can understand trying to evoke votes out of people if they had "strong opinions" (I read- investigations). Otherwise I don't have much else. I'm not taking him being clear on faith just yet, either.

Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #483 on: January 08, 2008, 10:22:35 PM »
Also, my classes start tomorrow, so that, understandibly, takes priority.

Sierra

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #484 on: January 08, 2008, 10:41:15 PM »
Update!

...No one's voted!

You have 38 hours until the deadline.

Carthrat

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #485 on: January 09, 2008, 12:36:59 AM »
Hmm. No votes! Well.

##Vote: Excal. I'll toss this out. Talk about Shale! Thanks to the voting records I am somewhat suspicious of you; today is not a day I want you in particular to fade to the background.
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Taishyr

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #486 on: January 09, 2008, 01:30:10 AM »
Alright. Back from a painlessly simple speaking test, doing a read of everyone still alive to try and get more information.

Veryslightlymad

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #487 on: January 09, 2008, 03:04:26 AM »
I'm curious what Cranbud's investigations mean, now that he turned out scum. Strago is unrevealable for our best interests (according to scum) and Otter turned up blank? (This could be anything, in particular.)

Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #488 on: January 09, 2008, 03:13:48 AM »
I'm sure he wouldn't have spilled anything blatantly false about a townie there. Whether that was an attempt to win townie trust by being accurate or had some darker purpose is a different matter altogether.
"Sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology."
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Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #489 on: January 09, 2008, 04:09:33 AM »
Dammit, people, time is slipping away here. And I won't be around to talk for most of tomorrow, so at this rate I'm going to miss the meat of the day.

##Vote Mad Fnorder. I'm not super-confident in the conspiracy theory I posted earlier, but it feels like it could be true, and you're not saying much, which is enough for me to throw this out.
"Sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology."
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Otter

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #490 on: January 09, 2008, 05:10:10 AM »
Well, since Cranbud was a scum rolecop, the scum already know exactly what he found out.  They have all that information already.  Now, Cranbud could have been lying during his public reveal about what results he got, so we're the uncertain ones; it seems in our best interest for me to try and eliminate as much of this uncertainty as possible.  My instinct is to say that he was trying to use the accuracy of that information as a way of clearing himself, and that he obviously wouldn't waste an investigation on a fellow -scum,- so he wasn't lying and Strago is clear just like me; however, if Strago were scum, Cranbud could have actually investigated me and some third person, then mentioned Strago's name in a vague way like that to throw us off.  Paranoia tells me this is -possible.-  However, I have to say I kneejerk to the more simple conclusion: he investigated a couple townies and tried to use the information to save himself.

Needless to say, he was right about me; I say this in the interest of helping the town eliminate uncertainty about the situation, and because the scum already know anyway.  I will confirm that I'm a vanilla townie.  Specifically, I am Bursar the Mathematician, although I haven't read the books and so I don't know much else about him.  Regardless, as far as this game is concerned, I'm pure vanilla.

So, might as well share some thoughts.  Kilga looks pretty good right now; the claim added up.  Strago looks good to me, since I think Cranbud investigated him; he's probably got a role, too.  I want to hear a lot more from Excal, and in fact, looking over the voting record, I'm still suspicious enough of him to vote the same way I did yesterday.  I might change it depending on his responses, but I'd really have to see 'em first.

##VOTE: Excal

Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #491 on: January 09, 2008, 05:29:26 AM »
So, you're theorizing that CPU was getting sacrificed as a lurker, so they decided to scumbus him, but when I took over and no longer drew fire, they stopped?

Obviously I can't discuss what CPU and I said out of the game when I took over, but I would think his posts show a good bit of genuine annoyance and frustration. Plus, if this is an epic scum gambit (Which it would have to be in advance), why go so far as to actually be replaced? Besides, Nitori and Cranbud jumping on a lynched lurker who turned out to be scum doesn't really earn them much clearance.

My point is, the "Scum sacrifice/quit in process gambit" doesn't fit for CPU nearly as much as it potentially does/did for Cranbud.

Kilgamayan

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #492 on: January 09, 2008, 05:37:11 AM »
CPU didn't actually go out of his way to be replaced, Cid took initiative and did it for him.


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Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #493 on: January 09, 2008, 05:56:22 AM »
Cid took initiative after a post of total surrender-type attitude. If anything, this makes this even more of an elaborate play to baton-pass to another player like that. I'm not saying CPU's former attitude clears me, but Shale's point, that the votes for CPU vanished when I took over, is because there was was no longer an easy to build momentum against target, not because of some sort of elaborate scum conspiracy that I'm now part of.

Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #494 on: January 09, 2008, 06:05:12 AM »
You're right that that is absurdly complex - the only way it'd be reasonable would be if they meant to actually bus him to lynching before he got modkilled, and Cid bringing in a replacement made them scrap that. That's what I meant to imply from the beginning, and like I said, it's not exactly ironclad. But it got you talking more, which was the main point of the vote, so...talk more. About people other than yourself, please.
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Corwin

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #495 on: January 09, 2008, 06:08:51 AM »
Which is what originally drew my suspicion to it, Kilga, as I said once before. Actually, speaking of Kilga, I believe he has a flare for somewhat convoluted gambits when he plays as scum, so I wouldn't outright clear him just yet. It could have been part of the plan to have Kilga and Bobbin fight it out publically over several days, so that one flips the other gains cred. He certainly isn't getting my vote over this -- I'm just explaining why I don't consider him to look as good as Otter does.

Sopko's reply adds to my suspicions about him rather than alleviates anything. People had ample time to comment? Well, let's take a look.

Bobbin's claim (page 30): http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2656#msg2656
Sopko's Hammer (mid-page 31): http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2702#msg2702

People commenting in between, in no particular order: Yakumo, Rat, Tai, VSM, You (Sopko), Shale, Kilga, Strago.

Certainly enough to decide Bobbin's guilt, yeah... but now we don't have other people on record. No Fnorder reaction to analyze, nothing from Otter there, nothing from myself (and I've mentioned that part already before), nothing from Excal which likely would've been relevant as Otter's now making a case against him.

It's not about you being suspicious for dropping the hammer, Sopko, but for you being suspicious about when you chose to do it. I see no harm and quite a bit to gain by waiting there, and you didn't. I disagree with the reasons you're giving for not waiting.

Taishyr

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #496 on: January 09, 2008, 06:24:48 AM »
...Yeah, okay, this is taking me too long to explain and summarize and quote and link so I'll just go for a blow-by-blow off what I've been reading thus far. Sorry to disappoint.

Firstly, note for the mods: I unvoted Shale in this post, but this is not reflected in the end-of-day votecount. Please fix, when you see this.

Shale: Aside from late day 2, is... actually pretty solid, has played effectively, all that. We all know the Yelling Bird moment I/he have over late day 2, so unless someone wants me to reference those (willing to do so on request), I'm just going to say... aside from that, there isn't much going on here, and while I wish he would trust his judgment more... it's... not enough for a vote thus far. Pretty much, a vote early day 1 for EvilTom that stayed on, a vote for CK day 2 that stayed on, and Otter's problem raised earlier with his unvote on EvilTom before the end of day 1... no, not really as applicable; that unvote makes sense to me.

Am I backing off of my aggressive stance? Yes. Why? Because, well, the late day 2 part is the only place I really have problems with him, and while I will remember it... I want to look this over far more carefully and not rush into any of this, and in my suspicions over late day 2 I put aside my sentiments over the rest of his play, which... was not good play on my part. And I forgot about the cop reveal on him today, too, until a refresh showed a post mentioning it, which only assists this sentiment (could it be a trick or something else? Sure. Occam's razor for now, though, applies).

Taishyr: Pass for obvious reasons, though if someone -really- wants me to do this one, I have a thesaurus, a dictionary, and a copy of War and Peace that I can go through to look for adjectives describing how awesome this Taishyr fellow is. </snark>

Strago: Mmm. He was the one that actually -started- the push on EvilTom (Shale had the first vote on, yes. This was a joke vote that stayed on); this being said, the reasoning... eh, it's fine for a day 1 get-out-of-joke-vote-votes. Was one of many calling out Otter (did everyone at one point or another? Probably); also called out Shale for the lack of content early day 1. Defends vote adequately. Day 2, comes out swinging against CK and stuck to his guns on this for most of the day... switched vote to Nitori in the interests of lynching someone (it was unclear whether or not we would need majority to lynch at this point). Posts day 3, comments on the results of the day, notes Yakumo's offense on Bobbin Cranbud, further justifies the Nitori vote, comments on Shale's comments toward Kilga (page 25), makes a general comment toward Mad Fnorder to talk more, then votes for Shale, referencing my post (interesting in this is that what triggered my suspicion was Excal's post at Shale, which was not referenced by Strago. Not sure what this means). After that is Yakko's claim, which Strago goes along with and votes for Bobbin Cranbud on, and made a post today commenting more on the mass of investigative roles.

...The general reading of his actions give me... a null read. I'm really not sure how to approach the Bobbin Cranbud post, which in retrospect kinda says "he has a power I won't say what lololololol." So, discarding that for the present... mmm, the EvilTom and CK push both forced a roleclaim, and CK died as a result, if indirectly. On the other hand, both times, he's stuck to his guns fairly clearly, moving almost on necessity (again, lynch uncertainty) day 2, and day 3 when a better case seemed to pop up. Mmm.  Yeah, null read, maybe slight town read but... yeah, I'm just not getting much in terms of read, here.

Give me time to do the rest, but...mmm. Two votes Excal, one vote Mad Fnorder? I was originally just going by the list in the first post, but I can move them to the front of the line, I suppose, though Fnorder by virtue of being a substitute will have less analysis, since I see little point in giving IhatethisCPU's posts more than one quick glanceover.

Hunter Sopko

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #497 on: January 09, 2008, 07:19:24 AM »
Corwin: I know it's the when and not the why. There isn't much more I can say on the subject that'll sate your interest, really. I'd read more into your behavior, but I really think this is misplaced town enthusiasm than anything else. No harm, no foul really.

I'm inclined to believe Excal is town. The claims he's been lurkerish/fading into the background are kind of bunk. He does have spells where he's not posting, but his posts are generally aggressive, informative and helpful.


Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #498 on: January 09, 2008, 07:31:30 AM »
Okay, this is starting to tick me off.

YE OLDE FNORDER. The last time you said anything close to substantial about anyone else was in a list post at the start of day 3, and that wasn't exactly in-depth; it had breadth, but most of it was two- and three-line blurbs. Today you have apparently ceased to exist altogether when not defending yourself. You haven't commented on anything that anybody else has said that doesn't directly involve you, and I find your lack of offense offensive. Apparently "I'm voting you to get you to say something" isn't enough of a prod, so I don't know what else I can do other than go Yelling Bird on your Interweb self. So there it is.
"Sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology."
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Excal

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #499 on: January 09, 2008, 08:42:42 AM »
Alright.  There seems to be some demand for my thoughts on Shale.  I...  am still suspicious of him.  His lone defense against the accusations levelled at him by myself and others seems to hinge upon our accepting his own lack of faith in his judgment.  It would also seem a bit odd if there were two scum that both decided to post during sudden death, and yet not actually vote.  Though, if this is true, then it does lead to interesting lines of thought.  That said...  he somewhat fades out on day 3, caught in the background of the great Cranbud debate, and his own self-defense.  But, I do like the way he's been pressuring Fnorder today.  So, I guess my stance on Shale wouldn't have changed much if it weren't for Kilga's claim, complete with an investigation claiming Shale is town.  And, I will admit, that's enough to make me want something a little more concrete before I start gunning for him.

Now, as for Kilga himself.  Most of the evidence for his being town comes from Cranbud having gone after him so aggressively, and his own aggressive demeanour in going after people.  If it were just VSM he'd been after, I'd be inclined to wonder about his credentials.  But he also managed to provide the best argument for why Yakumo wasn't scum trying to bus someone.

Finally, there's our good friend the Fnorder.  You've had very little to say about anyone besides yourself, and what little you've had to say has basically been because you were forced to.  Your main claim to innocence is based around Cranbud and Nitori gunning for your predicessor, and their laying off him when you took over the reigns.

Here's the thing though.  I've seen scum purposefully gun after their own on the basis of either making their weaker members defend themselves and look better for it, or in order to cut off dead wood and make themselves look good in the process.  And you'd have to admit, with how quickly those two went and how little support they had, those were the two who'd be needing the assistance.  So, I'm willing to believe that was a bussing strategy.  It may not be likely, but it's possible.  And if you're going to use it as an excuse to sit around and say a bunch of nothing, then that just makes it seem all the more likely.

Also, that isn't quite the full extent of my argument against you actually.  I'm not sure if anyone else has picked up on this detail yet, but...

The reason I haven't said much is that recent events have pretty much blown my mind. I did have a hunch that Cranbud had an investigative role- and I turned out to be right. It explained his choice of targetting at the beginning of the VSM-Kilga fight.

Now, according to Cranbud, Otter was the one he had investigated on night one.  And Strago his target of choice for night two.  However, here you are saying that he made his choice to defend VSM from previous knowledge of his role.  There are only two ways he could have that knowledge.  First, is if he was scum buddy with VSM.  Second was if he had investigated VSM on night one.  Which, let's admit it, is possible.  If he's lying about Strago being investigated, then he could very well have investigated VSM first, and shuffled things around by placing his second investigation (Otter) to cover that up.  I'm not entirely sure why he'd do this, but it's a possibility.  However, the problem with both of these scenarios is, how do you know this?  Cranbud never told anyone in town, so the only way you'd know is if you were a scum buddy.

And that's why I'm gonna toss this your way.

##Vote: Mad Fnorder

I want to reread things a bit further and collect my thoughts a bit more before I start posting on other people.