Discworld Mafia is go!

[Corwin]

A comment on Excal's post. Bobbin could've been lying about investigating Strago, about investigating Otter, or about both. I know I've used only Strago as an example, but that was because Bobbin claimed Strago had a role and Strago was active around that time, which would have allowed us to get a confirmation or another nail in Bobbin's coffin, however things went. I find it a bit strange that you're accepting his claim about investigating Otter so readily. He could've lied (as scum he'd know whether Otter was one or not), Otter could've lied whether he's scum or if he's town with a role he'd like to keep to himself, etcetc.

But I don't consider this significant enough to go after you instead of Fnorder. Do explain yourself on this, please, but it's really Fnorder whom I'd like to talk. A lot.

##Vote: Fnorder

I've felt his role was fishy before he even assumed it, and therefore I tried to resist reasoning I felt was flawed (and terribly meta) by getting him to participate and talk to get an actual read on him. He either resisted these attempts most valiantly unless I voted for him first to get him to even respond, or said things that made me suspicious. At this point, I'd like him defend himself like it's his last chance, because enough people find him suspicious by now and it really is the time for him to prove himself.

[Corwin]

And I'd like to trouble our mods with a votecount if possible, please.

[Excal]

You're wondering why I'm thinking that it'd be Strago that he'd be lying about instead of Otter?  The simple answer is, I don't.  But, if you look at what was said about the two of them, you have Otter, who was labeled as Vanilla, and has since confirmed that claim.  And Strago, wh...  uhhh...  dangit....

Uhhh...  yeah...  Wow, the thought that they'd be all cloak and dagger around Strago's identity completely made me forget that he could try and do the same bloody thing with a Vanilla claim.  Consider me horribly corrected.

[Veryslightlymad]

He was supposedly able to detect people who DIDN'T act at night.

He'strying to sew chaos (Good job!)

That he found nothing on Otter, if he investigated, is, well, it means that Otter didn't have a PASSIVE ability. Maybe he was out doin' stuff.

If he supposedly found something on Strago and doesn't want to tell us, but we know Bobbin was anti-town.................... ...............Bomb?......... .....or he could be a scum buddy. That's a hell of a fun choice, isn't it?

The fun part is going to be deciding how much of Bobbin was telling the truth and how much was lying. Hell, he might have pointed out BOTH of them as scum. Is this a bad play? Can we be sure that one of the two is safe?

[Corwin]

Excal: Bobbin's line on Strago really seemed to me like fishing for a town roleclaim, all in the effort of scum getting a clearer target as Bobbin went down.

VSM: The fun part is looking at Bobbin's voting record in detail, doing the same for Nitori, and then doing an analysis yet again for Bobbin and Nitori voting together. I know parts of this were used in both of Fnorder's defense and the case against him, but I don't recall anything more thorough.

[Carthrat]

When you put it like that (that Shale's case for his defence relies on us winding up with little reason to take what he says seriously), it clicked pretty quickly for me. I guess my current stance on him is that there's no point prodding him today; we're better off following up other roleclaims (particularly Kilga's.)

Corwin's thinking is pretty much in line with my own with regard to where you're coming from with regard to Otter and Strago. I'd hasten to add that Otter was quick to roleclaim at a point where I would question the necessity of doing so. Still, I'm gonna let you off the hook... ##Unvote: Excal

VSM: I'm going to work of the assumption that at least one of Otter and Strago is town for the time being (if not both). The ultimate fact is that Bobbin was scum, so there's little worth attaching much import to what he's said about them by itself. Of the two, I'd lean towards Otter being the more scummy owing to his partially-justified lapses in posting; he's made up for that by being around a fair bit, but I don't think the roleclaim there was called for.

<->

One thing I think Kilga SHOULD do is use his roleblock tonight; he might as well, the odds of him hitting scum are slim. I'd bet we're fresh out of information roles to block. Doc might be possible, but I think the odds are slim.

And it'd at least confirm that part of his role when someone speaks up about it (assuming the roleblock is communicated.)

<->

The Case for Fnorder (Apologies if this has been gone over before, but this is the first time I've really gone through to look at what he's said.)

-There's his bad play in the early days, and by 'Fnorder', I mean 'CPU' here. I certainly don't think this was any elaborate scum replacement plot, but it obviously didn't look very good. Upon replacement he spent most of his time simply trying to catch up.

-He posted this in day 3 http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2590#msg2590. I believe I used what he said about Kilga on this list, but that doesn't change what he's said about other people here, which is a fair number of 'null reads' and 'gut feelings', neither of which look like useful words to go back too later.

-Missed Shale and went back to review him. Still didn't review me, which continues to make me sad.

-You know, he says 'recent events have blown his mind earlier', but wasn't he actually *right* about some things, including the presence of Bobbin's information role (to a point)? From here we can just look at his posting today, in that he's mostly absent. Furthermore, he's also mentioned that classes start soon, indicating that he's going to be around *less*...

A combination of lurkerness and some strange foreknowledge of events.

<->

Otter: Has gone after Excal today! Excal has returned fire! What does Otter have to say about that, and does this reflect on anyone else at all?

Sopko: Has been getting more active as of late. Although he was hammer, he was not exactly just posting that out of the blue; he'd made other posts at around that time and I feel he was participating. This seems to mesh with what is ultimately his usual playstyle to me (I've seen him outright state in IRC games that he is pretty quiet early on and picks up the pace later. Or something to that effect.)

Being hammer doesn't give him instant clearance, but to those who think this is worth specifically mentioning (i.e. Strago), I'd like to hear what you don't like about his play so far.

[Hunter Sopko]

To be fair to Strago, Rat, Corwin is the one who really hounded on me for it. Strago more just brought it up in passing, which is fair enough.

The case for Fnorder is fairly strong. Excal's analysis is pretty damning. I'm inclined to agree, but there isn't really much I can add and the vote is enough that I can wait on Fnorder's defense.

[Corwin]

I also don't think there was an elaborate scum-replace plot, Rat. However, I can see two scum trying to bus an unhelpful one that was going to quit anyway, but stopping when a new player that wasn't trying to suicide came in his stead. It would merely be adjusting to a new situation, and not something pre-planned.

Speaking of your post again, "When you put it like that" is addressed to Excal? I'm having a brain freeze moment, and can't get whom you're addressing, there.

To Sopko: A mod hasn't posted yet with the tally and the time remaining, which I feel would give Fnorder a greater sense of urgency to defend himself at last, but from my own count of the votes I have to agree. Let's wait and see what he says, and how it/the rest of the discussion implicates people when someone flips after a lynch. That said, whom would you like to discuss in the time we have, aside from Fnorder? You seem ambiguous on Otter and tentatively pro-Excal judging by past posts, but I'm wary of going too far due to the flips and revelations we've had in the meantime. Was I right on your feelings towards those two? What of the others?

[Carthrat]

Yeah, it was addressed to Excal (who was the post I was originally replying to.)

[Taishyr]

As before, not doing today; that's fairly easily accessed. Mainly looking through backlog for this.

Excal


First major post after joke vote season is over attacks Sopko for the attack on QR. Second is discussion with VSM. Third comments on the EvilTom situation, switches vote from Sopko to Corwin to get Corwin speaking, comments on a Corwin short post, fourth is a comment on the EvilTom discussion/lynchtrain. Fifth post is one of the ones he has gotten flak for; third of three (IhatethisCPU/MadFnorder, CmdrKing, Excal) in a row to post with a vote on EvilTom; sixth is a post stating that discussion seems to be petering out and a query to the mod regarding how lynch deadlines will work; seventh post is an extension of this question, and eighth post is pretty much a wrapup to it. Ninth post is correcting me for yelling at Kilgamayan to vote - I accused him of not voting, when his vote was on someone. Then again, Kilgamayan was going "well who would I vote for" in the posts of his previous and I took it to mean that he hadn't voted, not... actually looking at the votecount to check. Back to Excal, though...

Tenth post is a note to Kilgamayan re: EvilTom using Edit: (it was a byproduct of the "new reply has been posted, you may want to edit your post" thing.) Post eleven, in day 2, is him coming out swinging at low post count people: Otter (at the time), CPU, Unoriginal, Kilgamayan and Nitori. Twelve is him commenting further on his suspicion for Sopko, thirteenth is a word of caution to VSM regarding his defense of Sopko and his own appraisal of Sopko's case (lukewarm). Fourteenth is his vote against VSM, and justification; fifteenth is extrapolation on why CK would claim his role so early (Excal pointed out that, due to time differences, this had to be done that early to try and avoid lynch). Sixteenth is him requesting a roleclaim from VSM while people are still around, and warning that VSM is closer to death than the number (5) would suggest, since it was 5 of 8. Seventeenth is him justifying his vote for VSM in day 3, under Otter pressure. Eighteenth is his own offensive on Cranbud, Shale and Mad Fnorder; voted for the lurker of the three, Mad Fnorder. Next two posts are commenting on Yakumo's reveal, and questions to Shale and Mad Fnorder. Next post is him telling Shale he would have preferred his judgment over Hatbot's threatened judgment. He then votes for Bobbin Cranbud off of Mad Fnorder, stating that Mad Fnorder looks better to him now, and that Shale doesn't look as bad as Cranbud. That was his final post of day 3.

Opinion: Well... mmm, he still gives out townie vibes for me, honestly. I begin to see why people are yelling at him a bit about posting, but I believe it erroneous. He has been posting; the main thing that might dilute this is his day 1, where he posted mainly one or two lines to try and clarify situations. Since then, he's been posting solidly if sporadically; then again, I believe it to be a schedule thing as his posts seem to synch up with the same people's each day.

Mad Fnorder


Comes in day 2 for IhatethisCPU, who was under surrender-based lurker pressure, and understandably so. Comments that Carthrat seems to be more aggressive, and that he is looking at CK. Second post explains his Carthrat view more, comments on Corwin/Sopko infighting, notes Shale's unvote move on day 1 and agrees with it, votes Nitori for being quieter. Day 3, he explains his voteswitch from Nitori to CK; fourth post gives his thoughts on everyone who I believe was in the game at that time except Shale, not in much detail but it looks like, glancing on the comments, he did at least read through.  Next post is after the Yakko roleclaim, where he muses that he had wondered if Bobbin Cranbud had some investigative abilities, but had pegged him as town. Then, a post in reply to Excal, saying he did indeed forget Shale in that list and would go back and check. Next post defends Shale a bit from the Yelling Bird Excal post.

Opinion: Post more. Defend thyself. I'm not sure I buy the argument Excal presents, but I want to hear more from you irregardless, especially on the offensive. What are your current suspicions? Who do you think is scum? Give people something to work with, here.


Comments on the Current Situation

Okay. A few things. Firstly: ##Vote: Strago.

Sudden, but... firstly, he's still one I'm getting little read on, even after another read-through (admittedly, this was mainly in analysis of other people, but it still was a reread of the entire thing). Secondly, his last post this game day was... very early on. Admittedly, it's getting to about... 22 hours, by the forum clock? I'm curious on this absence; consider this a pressure vote on a lurker to speak up, especially regarding his suspicions for today and his opinion of Excal's theory. It may be time constraints - I understand those... - but it feels off as compared to the performance thus far.

Next analysis will be admittedly on the two people I know have been fairly active, but who have slipped more under my radar than anyone else - Corwin and Carthrat.

[Sierra]

Update!

Excal (1) Carthrat, Otter
Mad Fnorder (3): Shale, Excal, Corwin
Strago (1): Taishyr

With eleven alive, it takes six to lynch.

You have 24 hours until the deadline.

[Shale]

Well, well. I conk out for a few hours and a mob starts growing. I don't have a lot to say that hasn't already been said, whether by me or by other people building on the same foundation, and Fnorder hasn't posted to give us anything new to respond to. I do take issue with Excal's note that thinking Cranbud had an investigative role is a net negative because Cranbud claimed to not have investigated VSM. Scum lie. All we know about Cranbud for sure is that he was the scum rolecop.

Where to go from here, though...huh. Forgive me for treating the Fnorder thing like a bit of a dead letter, but I don't have anything new to add on him, and I'm not going to be free to post from work today so this could be my last chance to chime in on anyone else before hammer.

Excal reads pretty much town to me; sounds like a broken record at this point, but he's posting good amounts of content when he's actually around, and doesn't have anything glaring in the voting record. He does have weird hours, I can remember that much from being in mason chat with him a few games back. Sopko I don't have much of a fix on, but his playstyle is reminding me more of how he played when we were scum back in the day than his town style - more tentative, and emphasis on facilitation instead of confrontation. Of course, his town style tends to get him killed, so if he has just switched it up as a townie I can't exactly blame him. Otter...I'm not sure. First there was the egregious lurking, but looking back at it, when he came in and actually did start playing he looks fairly good to me - even the focus on me on Day 2, rereading it without the OMGUS factor. But now he's got to lurking more again, and that still strikes me as off for him, so maybe I can't trust that read. Wouldn't be the first time I got the wrong impression from him.

VSM I've already said looks near-confirmed to me based on the end of Day 2. There's no reason for scum to waffle like they did if VSM and Nitori are both bad. Kilga I'm willing to tentatively trust the roleclaim on, but people should bear in mind that he's made no claim to power or knowledge that would be inconsistent with being a scum roleblocker.

Strago I never had a clear impression of to begin with, but when I read Tai's latest post where he notes that it's been almost a full day since we heard from him, my response was "damn, I hadn't even noticed," which might be a bad sign. Tai himself is acting pretty much normal, although again the "never seen him play scum" caveat applies. I'd like to go back and review his votes but don't have a lot of time to reread the thread right now. Carthrat seems more aggressive and more open-minded than usual, which are both good things given Rat Is Always Scum, and Corwin is just hard to pin down.

Whew, that's the lot of you, I think. Away I go!

[Carthrat]

For the sake of completeness, then, I'm gonna run an analysis of Tai, being that I don't have many real thoughts on you, either. The main thing I have noticed is that you post infrequently, but each post is full of content. QUESTIONABLE content? We will see!

(...ok, yeah, I just wanted to say that.)

<->

Day 1

First big post doesn't really have anything special in it. Kinda pokes at the QuietRain/Sopko tiff, but doesn't ring anything for me. Hits EvilTom for Totally Justifiable Reasons. Pokes around for more talk out of EvilTom and such. Is generally in tutorial mode, with a relatively minor count of Rote Townisms. (They're still there, though.)

Not much, ultimately! He said something along the lines of 'if tom is town and lives, scum can use him as a smokescreen' when other people referenced similar bad townie play we've had in the past. The worst I can say is that he had very little presence day 1 overall. Eh. No big deal...

Day 2

He did a pretty big post on EvilTom and Smodge's thoughts. I find this to be a little odd as my impressions of both of them were that they weren't saying helpful stuff. Nor do I feel it's useful to closely inspect the words of dead townies- we really can take them at face value, can't we? I understand that his game is extremely intense on the analytical side, but it felt like a waste of words.

He made another large post later; had a couple small ones inbetween that weren't saying much, but they were mostly cautions, or so it seemed to me. He did make a vote for Nitori- coincidentally, one right after Fnorder.

On this note, current consensus seems to be pointing to lynching Fnorder; since my current analysis is looking specifically at Tai, what I can say here is that it's very unlikely *both* Tai and Fnorder are scum thanks to the placement of these votes. If one does turn out to be scum I'd be prepared to give more trust to the other.)

He doesn't have a lot to say on most cases owing to feeling that, for the most part, they're pretty weak; he does symphasize with the VSM case and is willing to FoS Shale.

That was pretty much his last major post. What I can say about Tai here is that he doesn't feel like he's very aggressive or forceful in general; he's not so inclined to make a strong case against someone so much as riff off the case of another. I find this mildly disconcerting.

Day 3

First post includes a poke at Otter to expand on thoughts on Excal, myself, and Kilga. Then he goes after Shale for a fairly sizable chunk of text, before promising to come back to myself and Kilga later. Pretty much drops this after Yakumo and Bobbin's roleclaiming episode (with a Stern Promise to Come Back Later, huh.) Evidently wants to hit Bobbin but is relaxing for a bit to allow more discussion. Continues with pressure on Bobbin throughout the day.

Then Bobbin Dies.

He's pretty much dropped his case on Shale, I think, given the cop revelation. I don't know, I didn't see anything terribly unusual about his play here; he never did really come back to Shale or Kilga that day, though. Instead, he did eventually come back to hit Shale on...

Day 4- that's today!

He kinda backflips over his previous position, which is kind of understandable. It's a bit strange that he says Shale's play is solid apart from late day 2 and didn't mention this thought on day 3, but I will grant that Bobbin's execution may have been something of a smokescreen. What he hasn't done yet is inspect the veracity of Kilga's roleclaim. Given his previous suspicion on Shale, I'd be thinking he's giving up his position here too quickly. Has a null read on Strago and pretty much votes him just now to get his attention. Well. I can only take this to mean that you've got *positive* reads on everyone else? Come on, man, find a better reason to vote.

He's sympahtetic to Excal and finds him town-like, despite posting sporadically- I'd comment that there are certain similarities here with Tai and Excal (infrequent yet content-laden posts.)

<->

Overall I find Tai to be... okay. I think his posts have something of an inflated word count and he says his fair share of unimportant things; he usually has one big interesting post each day that actually gives out some information on him. The current anomalies to me are his current vote on Strago and his lack of continued pressure on Kilga; I would have expected more out of him.

[Corwin]

Rat brings up an interesting point, Tai. Please speak on Kilga and Rat himself some more.

[Taishyr]

Firstly, Carthrat, <3 pun.

Yeah, I'm analytic. This tends to lead to not many severe opinions, though if I get even one I stick to it like hellfire. I try for thoroughness, too... but yes, it does sometimes lead to sound and fury signifying at best little. This being said, it's how I tend to catch scum, if I manage it; I need to process this stuff a shitload before I get much of anywhere.

Re: EvilTom and Smodge: Mrr. I was hoping for their guts to have helped us by pointing us in some direction, but all they really did was point us in the directions we were already looking, mostly, so ergh. Yeah, that could have been trimmed, in retrospect.

...I forgot entirely about doing an analysis of Bobbin/Kilga. That was, what, with the whole Yakumo/Bobbin Cranbud thing? Yeah, I think that made me entirely forget. Where did I say I was going to do one of you, idly, other than earlier today? I remember the post saying I'd do one for Kilga, but not one for you. As I said, you've been under my radar.

As for Excal/I... Perhaps it's that synchronism that's modifying my view of him; I hadn't noticed the similarity so precisely, but it's worth keeping in mind. Still, mine is due to timing, but his. ...mmm, you bring that up and now -I'm- the one disturbed. It's... waugh. Thanks, man, now I really don't know what's going on, there. He still feels solid, but... is that my own goddamn feedback mechanism? Cha.

I'm voting Strago because I want him posting and talking; his silence is creeping me out and it's been a longer silence than Otter's silence thus far. Since I disagree with the main push thus far, though Mad Fnorder's response may change things here, I'm pushing at something I consider very bad at this point in the game - silence. If you're dying for quick breakdowns, I think I see you as neutral (seriously, you give me less of a solid read than anyone else here - my blind spot, I suppose. Vote pattern seems neutral, and your posts are neutral to town in point, but gut's giving a slight vibe agianst; nothing I can validate, but it isn't giving me any solid reads on you right now),  Kilga as neutral due to nagging thoughts re: how easy it would be for his current roleclaim to be aped by scum (of the three options I see regarding Kilga and his claim, two benefit Shale's standing as town and one... kinda out there one right now has Shale as scum, which I'm considering but not thinking is likely), Otter as... sporadic, is the best word for it?, VSM and Excal as townie vibe area, Shale as neutral/town, and Sopko in my land of uncertainty. Quite frankly, this game has felt a bit like I'm an outsider looking in; I comment when I can, get patted on the head by random people, and then the discussion keeps going, especially while I sleep and shit, leading to me, as you noted, never really advancing my own ideas because, by the time they reach anything resembling coherency, people have roleclaimed and fights have been made and my suspicions are changed by the situation. Again, this is probably a feedback mechanism; I've been trying to help town as best I can, and thus far, well... mrf, it's just been worthless thus far, except for helping against Nitori. I mean, I'm playing, but it's felt like any attempts I've made to contribute have been just pissing in the wind, so to speak. So I've kept looking at things the same way to try and get something going. At this point, though... maybe I need to scrap the style and restart. I dislike change, but... if it helps, it's worth it.

Carthrat has obtained 1x Tai Rant. And now I try to sleep for my next final (reading).

[Strago]

I apologize for my absence. Yesterday was busy, I went to sleep early, blah blah excuses nobody really cares about. Tai's vote is pretty fair, because of it. Hopefully I can redeem myself in the eyes of the lolcat.

The first thing I'll say is that my gut tells me not to believe Cranbud's pre-lynch rolecoppery reveal at all. First of all let me remind everyone that Cranbud was scum: there's no evidence that the specifics of his role, only being able to investigate passive/unused roles, was anything more than a fabrication to make him look like a Town counterpart to Yakko. The dude was scum about to die, and the only people who mattered to him (the other scum) knew what he knew anyway, so his little smoke and mirrors game looks to be just that. I find it much, much more likely that he didn't investigate Otter or I at all. Think about it, if he used his Rolecoppin' nights to look at other players, and just before death drops this post about Otter and I... it seems very possible that his intention was to get us to come out of the woodwork and say "oh yeah my role is X." Boom, at least one free investigation for the scum. Especially since Cranbud, probably pretty certain that he was about to die, said that it was in the best interest of the town that he not yet reveal my role. Uh. A bit of reverse psychology, hoping that after his death the town would indeed call to hear it and give that info to scum as well? It's quite possible that I'm overthinking it, but it still seems possible. I, for one, am not giving them the satisfaction...

...and it feels very strange indeed to me that Otter would feel differently. I don't see much town benefit at all to him claiming vanilla, and combined with how spotty his posting has been (and from the very beginning I've even found his content somewhat suspect, witness our disagreement over when you should and shouldn't vote based on playstyle in the page 18/19 vicinity), he might actually be my top suspect thus far. I also can't shake the feeling that, as has been said many times, completely legitimate excuses are awesome for scum.

What else do I see? Well, at the moment I do see a Fnorder who has been very conspicuously low on content. Something in my gut, though, says that it's not just as simple as a dungeon dimension crawlie with nothing to say. Given how obviously low-content and generally defensive his posts have been, I have to wonder if he isn't being bussed.

Dammit, I've been called out to do something in the real world, but I want to get these thoughts out there before my absence grows even longer. And in keeping with my gut and what town needs right now, I'll even end it with a vote.

##VOTE: Otter

[Carthrat]

I need to vote before I crash tonight.

##Vote: MadFnorder I can't start excusing lack of playing at this point in time. There isn't some kind of point where playing badly becomes a town tell, in my opinion. The reasons for knocking a non-contributor off have been spoken about at length before and I'm not going to go over them again, especially when they've already made a couple odd scummy tells (i.e. role precognition).

I would otherwise second Strago's vote for Otter here.

[Mad Fnorder]

Apologies to my fellow players for sleeping.

Anyway, here goes, everything I've got.

Explanation of my previous laying off of Bobbin- It was an assumption I made, based on the fact that he went after the harder target between VSM and Kilga, at the beginning of the fight. I'm like, "hum, this sort of 'post of a hard defense all of a sudden' reads kind of cop-esque to me." I didn't think of the idea of a scumcop, which was a mistake, so I started building theories around Cranbud not being legit. That's why I went so "gwuh" when he was fingered, and didn't vote that day- and when he flipped, I had to throw everything out. I'd like to reiterate what Corwin said- that we only have Cranbud's word on who he investigated and how, including his limitation.

Roleclaim- I am Susan Sto Helit, granddaughter of, well, you know. My power is the ability to _{USE SMALL CAPS WITHOUT FEELING GUILTY ABOUT IT.} I am Vanilla Town. I hinted at this a bunch of pages back as well.

Current opinion of everybody:

Shale- Feel like he's improved since last time I looked over his posts. The more I think about it, as one of the only people cop-cleared in a game where we probably have all dead cops, if he WAS Godfather he could be playing far more aggressively. Going to go ahead and say town.

Taishyr- Is playing much like he usually does. I... don't know what to scrutinize in his posts, per se- he's targeted anyone requested of him with the same general eye. Leaning town, but could also be excellent scum play.

Kilgamayan- Role is plausible with the power, and obviously I have to accept him to accept Shale being clear. Will go ahead and say Town.

Strago- Three possible outcomes of the Cranbud Baiting Scenario-
1) Strago is Town, has a unique/hard to validate role/is Ghost (Though we've had two ghosts already, and that seems a bit heavy), and Cranbud was trying to redirect attention.
2) Strago is Town, never was investigated, may in fact be vanilla, and the whole Cranbud gambit was just trying to get a third investigation done on his way to the gallows.
3) Strago is Scum, and this is a gambit done to clear him- "He's important guys, don't shoot the potential Beloved Princess!"
If you asked me to vote on Strago right now, I'd probably assume 2 and give him a pass.

Sopko-Has been playing... impatiently? But I don't think particularly scummy. Nothing certain about him.

Corwin-Very dominant, consistent leader of conversation. This is another one of those, "I'm convinced, if he's scum, he's playing great". My earlier bad feeling... Maybe it's just in your phrasing? I don't know.
Carthrat- My apologies for missing you earlier. You've settled into the Mafia groove, and don't seem as pit-bull-y as before. I don't see much.
VSM- Buying his claim. One shot governor+doublevoter is really bizarre to have in the grip of scum. Then again, this is the Disc. Town.
Otter- Um. I reached this point and
Excal- Whoa there. See a vote on me, make a nice little spin move, add to it, and then when someone sees a flaw in your reasoning, you leave the vote where it is, right in the line of mob fire. Not so fast.

Conclusions: I'm feeling fooled. I don't have enough suspicions to match up with even a least case scenario of scum. However, Excal's vote didn't have to be for me to make me alarmed. So, here you go.

##Vote Excal

If I come to any new conclusions after my late class, I'll be sure to post then.

[Corwin]

Hmm.

I feel the comment about sleeping obfuscates the issue somewhat. I can certainly buy it for why it took you this time to respond to our accusations... but you were certainly free to post earlier without being voted for. Charges of you lurking, especially at a stage where it's too dangerous to lurk, are part of what makes this look like either scum or bad town play, neither of which we would want to see here.

The vote on Excal... eh. I dunno. On the one hand, voting the person who voted you without a clear case to boot is more than a bit suspicious. On the other....

I do know that I don't want to reach hammer too early again, so I'll remove my vote from you on the explicit condition that you talk more, specifically about Excal. Also, comments about other cases being debated would also be quite nice. For example, you're going on the assumption Kilga is town (and therefore Shale is, etc). What if he's not? Do you think his roleclaim is believable thematically? Where would going on the assumption Kilga is scum lead you? I feel like I'm reaching by trying to invent new ways for you to look at the situation and talk more, but for some reason I keep on wanting to hear you speak more. Also, you say you've 'reached this point' when commenting on Otter, but there's nothing you're saying about him!

To the others, given my timezone, I'll certainly be around in time to drop the hammer here should a consensus be reached by then. With no cops left (a metagaming assumption, but quite a reasonable one) discussion is all we have left to locate the scum before they cull us.

##Unvote: Fnorder

[Mad Fnorder]

Gah. I was writing the post as it came to me- another victim of Copy/paste antics.

Unfortunately, you didn't miss much. I got to that point, and was like, "What ABOUT Otter." Nothing jumping out at me on it, save that he's been extraordinarily quiet for his level of play.

The Librarian being an Inventor-type... fits? I have read "Guards! Guards!" where he has a very large presence, and he is pretty capable.

Corwin, you make this sound like a fait accompli lynching already. I'm guilty of "bad town play" because I haven't commented in earlier days. So, prompted, I roleclaim and speak about everything I'm able to ascertain, and I'm still guilty.

[Strago]

Excal- Whoa there. See a vote on me, make a nice little spin move, add to it, and then when someone sees a flaw in your reasoning, you leave the vote where it is, right in the line of mob fire. Not so fast.

Conclusions: I'm feeling fooled. I don't have enough suspicions to match up with even a least case scenario of scum. However, Excal's vote didn't have to be for me to make me alarmed. So, here you go.

##Vote Excal

Fnorder, could you expound a bit on your thought process right here? I'm confused as to what you mean, and I think because I don't quite get it, the Excal vote just looks like a retaliatory thing to me. Which doesn't look all that great.

Could you also explain the flavor behind your roleclaim and how you apparently breadcrumbed it earlier? This may just be some Discworld stuff that's lost on me. Of course, as always, it's difficult to substantiate a vanilla claim. Especially when all our dang cops seem to be dead.

[Corwin]

Is your destiny set in stone? No, that's not why I withdrew my vote for now. It was entirely because of last day's hammer, and the fact that one of the players has the two votes necessary to get from four to six and have you lynched before I'm satisfied with the results of this day's conversations.

Do I think you still look the scummiest? Pretty much. I don't think you flipping will give us much we don't already know, however you do flip in the end, so I'm waiting to see whether a better case appears (and you should certainly be motivated to help find one) or we're getting pressed for time and have to lynch someone.

In the end, if you're town, you win with town, even in death. Since some of us, myself included, don't know much about Discworld, I'd second Strago's request for a themed analysis of the claims and various flavor dropped around, if you've run out of things to comment on the players themselves.

[Mad Fnorder]

It is Discworld stuff, yes. Susan is the Granddaughter of Death (and I hope I didn't trip some SK trigger by pointing this out). Death, when he talks, speaks IN ALL CAPS, LIKE THIS. It makes people pay attention. Susan has inherited a little bit of this power- namely, the ability to occasionally speak in small caps.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2579#msg2579

Like here.

[Corwin]

Remember how I said it'd be fun to look thoroughly at the voting patterns of our confirmed scum? Well, I don't know about fun, but I certainly gave it a try.

Bobbin's been after Kilga persistently, which you don't need me telling you if you've been keeping up with the game. Only Sopko went after him day one, before recanting. No Nitori crossover here, obviously. The only one occuring had also been spotted already (Bobbin voting CPU day 1, Nitori day 2). Unfortunately, nothing overly fun or revealing in the upcoming text; apologies for dropping the block of it here for easy consulting. If Fnorder does get voted and turns out to be scum, I'd be inclined to look again at those our other scum briefly voted for on day 1, since day 1 votes are the easiest to toss out, and usually don't hold much danger unless done at a later stage when a train forms. Namely, Otter, for whom Nitori voted. He looks strange to me as it is (his posting pattern throughout the game, riddled with different excuses, his somewhat strange vote recently...), and if it turns out CPU=Fnorder=SCUM and Bobbin voted for him on day 1 as matter of tactic, it would be entirely plausible Nitori did the same thing back at a time it was still safe to build up a voting record/fake conflict between he and Otter.

Entirely dependant on certain things happening first, of course, and again I'm not in any rush to lynch Fnorder while he's still speaking. Let's have more of it. From Otter and Sopko.

Past voting record (relevant portions quoted):

Day 3:
Bobbin Cranbud (7): Yakumo, Strago, Kilgamayan, Excal, Shale, Carthrat, Hunter Sopko
Kilgamayan (1): Bobbin Cranbud

Day 2:
Nitori (6): Anonymous, Mad Fnorder, Taishyr, VSM, Corwin, Strago, Yakumo
Kilgamayan (1): Bobbin Cranbud
VSM (5): Kilgamayan, Nitori, Carthrat, Excal, Cmdr_King
*Nitori originally voted for CPU, but due to CPU being replaced Cid cleaned his slate, so there'd be nothing in the final tally

Day 1:
Hunter Sopko (0): Nitori, Kilgamayan, Excal
IhatethisCPU (2): Cmdr_King, Bobbin Cranbud, Smodge13
Nitori (0): Excal, Smodge13
Otter (3): Strago, Nitori, EvilTom, Corwin
Taishyr (0): Quietrain, Bobbin Cranbud

[Mad Fnorder]

To be a bit meta-themey, all the flips so far make sense- unfortunately, I don't know Bursar, so I can't comment on that. The one role I'm surprised we haven't seen is a Carrot. Considering Vimes is dead, The possibility of him being a Rookie, or Naive Rookie, is certainly possible and in character for him. The other possibilities, I would think, aside from him being Scum, being the burly sword-wielding type, would be Vig, bomb, or taking over Vetinari's doublevote if he leaves play, since it's practically confirmed that he's the true heir to the city.

The other question is where's the Rincewind? We've even had a Twoflower so he's got to be out there, besides being one of the most iconic Discworld characters. He may be vanilla, he may be some sort of hider, or he may have something absurd and game breaking and not even know it, because well, that would fit Rincewind.