Discworld Mafia is go!

[Corwin]

To answer VSM, sure. It's a bit difficult to judge whether to provide links and quotes or to summarize, sometimes. When I first tried the former, I got accused of (potentially) obfuscating the issue with huge blocks of text and intimidating links, so....

Otter's latest post is already linked to in my other one.

And here's the after-the-fact Nitori-related post you asked for: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2456#msg2456

More when I finish catching up.

[Excal]

Alright, it looks like Cid's asleep.  But, looking at the last roundup, and the timing of it, there's 3 1/2 hours left in the day before we hit No Vote.

I'm at 2
Otter's at 4
Fnorder's at 4

[Veryslightlymad]

Well, it looks like I'm going to be the hammer one way or the other then, doesn't it?

I said I was going for the Rodent, and thus, I will go for the rodent. Sorry if you're a vanilla townie, rodent.

##Vote: Otter

[Corwin]

Is that hammer? Cid, Alex?

[Ranmilia]

Gimme a minute, I think that's hammer though.

[Ranmilia]

Excal (2): Otter, Fnorder, Carthrat, VSM, Anonymous
Fnorder (4): Shale, Carthrat, Kilgamayan, Sopko, Corwin, Excal
Strago (0): Taishyr
Otter (6): Strago, Taishyr, Corwin, Excal, VSM, Anonymous

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

I think that's right.  So yes, hammer. 

Otter, aka The Bursar, Vanilla Townie, was lynched!  Night actions to Cid please.

[Sierra]

Lynching flavor text/morning after text in one post:

With two successful executions in a row behind them, the citizens were growing more confident. Could they maintain this streak? It was said that good things came in threes, after all. (Well, horrible ugly things, in this case, but horrible ugly things being destroyed is, on the balance, basically positive, no?) They found themselves divided as the day wore on, and out of desperation turned against one of the more unusual residents once again: the Bursar, of Unseen University. If the seemingly harmless Ponder Stibbons had housed one of the creatures, why couldn't one of his comrades? Especially one widely renowned as being insane? And so the crowd put the question to this man, and asked him to summarize, in short, why they should not kill him. He contemplated this for a moment, and responded thusly:

"Whoops! Here's Mr. Jelly!"

This was not the stirring defense the crowd sought, and they descended upon him in force.

Otter, aka The Bursar, Mathematician (Town-aligned, Vanilla Townie) was lynched!

Well...they may not have flushed out another of the monsters, but at least they only lost the resident lunatic. That's gotta count for something, right? Few were able to convince themselves that this was any consolation, particularly the wizards at Unseen University, who, it seemed, would now need to find a new accountant. Sure, the man might've been mad half the time, but he could add and subtract like a demon.

To make matters worse, they rose in the morning to find another member of their staff killed. Well, kind of a member of the staff. He was an assistant librarian. Sometimes, when he wasn't being chased by beasties with more eyes than legs, or by unsympathetic men with swords. It seemed he'd finally found something he couldn't run away from.

He wasn't much of a wizard, it was true, but the remaining staff gave him the honors accorded someone who wore the traditional pointy hat, even if his did have a few too many sequins on it.

Corwin, aka Rincewind, Wizzard (Town-aligned, Vanilla Townie) was killed overnight!

It is now day five. With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

There are 48 hours until the deadline.

[Shale]

Okay, I’ve got enough information to show my hand. Let’s do this.

I am Esme “Granny” Weatherwax, witch of the Ramtop Mountains. Now, potions and spells are well and good, but 90% of real witchcraft is headology – and I am damned good at it. It’s child’s play to see what’s going on in your average person’s head, and even simpler when all I have to check is whether or not what’s going on involves tentacled beasts from between the worlds.
   
In short: I am the second cop. And better yet, I’m 100% Grade A certified sane.

So, it’s time to report in. By a freakish coincidence, my first two targets were the exact same as Yakumo’s – Excal on night one, Cranbud on night two. Excal returned town, Cranbud scum. I was considering roleclaiming right there on Day 3, but Yakko ninja’d me hardcore. I couldn’t really complain – I didn’t know my sanity yet, and getting a townie Cranbud lynched if I were insane/paranoid could get me counter-lynched. Two townies for one scum isn’t a great deal. Anyway, the next target was Otter, who also returned town (obviously). I still had my doubts about both him and Excal – I investigated them because they were suspicious, and I never really got faith in them as the game went on, which is partly why I didn’t roleclaim last night to save Excal when he was at four votes. The rest of it was fear of a docbuster getting me killed before I could actually reveal scum, and also thinking that he wasn’t a serious threat to get lynched; as far as I could tell, there weren’t two more votes for him among the active players. I was right about the last part, for all the good that did. I was just asleep when the votes came in for Otter, although the same calculus probably would have won out. Hard to say how I’d think under pressure now, though.

Anyway. Last night, I investigated Fnorder. And he is not vanilla. He is a Ghost, immune to investigation. We’ve already seen one third-party Ghost and one townie Ghost. Anybody want to hazard a guess as to what I think this one is?

Results, for easy reference:

Night 1: Excal. Town.
Night 2: Cranbud. Scum.
Night 3: Otter. Town.
Night 4: Mad Fnorder. Ghost.

[Strago]

That's a pretty damn compelling reason to vote, Fnorder, I'd say. I'm... pretty taken aback by us having a second Cop, especially since there was no indication that Vimes was anything but sane, but... hmm. I suppose I'm more inclined to trust you than not. You let Otter hang, but... I guess I can see why. And it occurs to me that before his voluntary modkill, Unoriginal mentioned that he had been told he was Vanilla, but suspected there was something more to his role. And it seems unlikely, to me, that Fnorder's role would be identical to Unoriginal's. Which would make Fnorder, y'know. A liar.

In other news, since we're pretty much at the point where it seems like sharing information is a fair bit better than not sharing it, I was roleblocked last night. In fact, according to the flavor text, I was roleblocked by something large and furry. Seems like our Librarian was busy last night, which proves that Kilga was at least partially telling the truth. I have not entirely ruled out the possibility of Kilga being a scum roleblocker, of course, which is why I'm presenting this now and asking anyone else to step up and say if they've been knocked down any Night by something big and hairy.

Hmm. I was just about to start examining the people who were voting for Otter and Excal, but then I started to wonder... if we have what looks like a pretty solid target in Fnorder right now, would it behoove us to spend this day lynching him quickly and playing our other cards close to our chest?  It seems like an odd idea when I type it, but maybe there's some value to it? I'd like to hear what others think about that particular proposal before I go into my own analysis of yesterday.

[Strago]

Bleh. First sentence should obviously read "That's a pretty damn compelling reason to vote Fnorder, I'd say." Stupid extra comma.

[Mad Fnorder]

Uh...huh. Well. That's news to me, the ghost thing. I'm sort of appreciative that Shale investigated me, despite the result meaning I'm pretty bloody doomed. Gimme a night to take one last look over things.

[Shale]

Unoriginal mentioned that he had been told he was Vanilla, but suspected there was something more to his role. And it seems unlikely, to me, that Fnorder's role would be identical to Unoriginal's. Which would make Fnorder, y'know. A liar.

Not quite parallel. Uno thought there was more to his role because he was playing a character who explodes. i.e. he was afraid he was a bomb.

[Excal]

Alright, I was willing to toss a vote Fnorder's way anyways, just on general principle.  But this does a good deal more.  First off, I'm glad we didn't keep the focus on you on Day 3 now Shale.  The revelation here does do a good job of explaining why you've been trying to avoid the spotlight.

so, I'll start off with

##Vote: Mad Fnorder

For previously stated reasons along with Shale's new evidence.

Now, let's take a look at some other things.  Of the people who perished yesterday, both were town.  One was Otter, who had his vote on me, and the other was Corwin, who not only had his vote on Otter, but made the solidest case for his being scum.

Now, I think it's safe to assume that there was one scum, at least, in the vote for Otter.  Corwin's dead, which leaves four other people to focus on.

There is myself.  I switched after Corwin's mega post, after having ignored Otter completely since Day 2.  I spend day 3 going after Shale and Fnorder before switching to Cranbud, and then spent Day 4 going after Fnorder again before doing a quick look at the run on Nitori.  This was followed up by switching my vote.

So, first on the list is Strago.  I've been getting enigmatic reads on him, and he was one of the two people mentioned in Cranbud's post.  However, while Otter was a major proponent of those being true and an attempt to gull us, Strago has been putting forth that it was a bluff to try and gull information out of us.  as for general posting, he's been giving me the impression of someone who's generally hanging back and jumping in where he sees something worth commenting on.  Notable for starting the train on CK, and switching to Nitori after the roleclaim came out on Day 2 as well.

Next up is Taishyr.  Generally has very good reasons for voting when he does.  He voted for Nitori on Day 2, and was the first one to provide reasoning to do so, while he avoided the vote on Cranbud on Day 3.  Generally makes up for a lack of quantity with some decent quality, for all that he's yet to truly lead any charges.

Finally, there's VSM.  He's possibly the one that looks most townie to me, but I'm not sure.  His only acting when pressed is well within character for him.  Though it isn't necessarily a town tell.  His claim of governor would be a town tell, if it was true, but he cannot prove his affiliation without costing us our lynch for the day, nor without giving up his double vote.  That said, where he has voted, the first was the Nitori vote on Day 2, which was understandable as self defense.  And then his vote for me followed by a shift towards Otter.

I'd need to look at Strago some more.  But...  I think of the three of them, he's the one that looks the most suspicious to me, while I'm currently undecided between Taishyr and VSM as to who looks more suspicious.

[Strago]

I got the impression that all he was told was Vanilla Townie, though.

And yes, I am trying to stay under the radar(and doing a horrible job of it), but I have my reasons. 

To be somewhat less vague, while I was told I was vanilla, I rather strongly suspect I have a hidden on-death role I'd prefer to not have trigger at the wrong time.

So that... would be the same, yes? Uno just assumed there was something more to his role, while Fnorder did not. That is, in the somewhat unlikely event that Fnorder isn't lying.

[Shale]

True, I'm just saying that in the event that Fnorder is town, then he likely isn't lying - he wasn't given an indication that he was a Ghost. I might have misunderstood you, though.

[Strago]

What I meant is that it seems more likely that Fnorder is a liar than that he and Uno had the exact same role as townies, since Ghost is a bit obscure.

[Veryslightlymad]

Shit!

Anyhow, I'm finally awake.

[Carthrat]

I doubt Kilga is a scum roleblocker if you got blocked, Strago, owing to the one-shot nature of his roleblock (unless he's been plotting this since the beginning of the game. Which seems like a waste of scum roleblocking powers.)

Shale's roleclaim left me feeling uneasy. I just don't like his selection of targets very much at all. I would have *much* preferred him to have gone after the more active, talky people; kilga, strago, taishyr, corwin et al than a couple of lurkers this way. I can guess at his reasons, but it's not what I would do. The role he highlighted for Fnorder gives him a bit of plausible deniability if it turns out badly.

Ultimately I'm inclined to trust it for now. I just wouldn't have played this role the same way. I will agree that we had a vast array of investigative powers, but with three people pointed out to be directly immune to them, they don't seem quite so overwhelming. Let's see what this reveals for now. ##Vote: MadFnorder

If it wasn't for the case against Fnorder already, I wouldn't be voting for him. Immunity to investigations doesn't necessarily lead directly to scum. However, it's there, I probably would've done this anyway, and at least the roleflip will give us a clue.

End of yesterday seems kind of odd. Corwin implied he had more to say, and then VSM lurches in with a hammer. Now Cor's dead! I think everyone can agree that he was an effective player and we should give his thoughts consideration today. Strago, I don't think we want to play our cards close to our chest in general; why would we want to do that today, exactly?

[Shale]

I would have *much* preferred him to have gone after the more active, talky people; kilga, strago, taishyr, corwin et al than a couple of lurkers this way.

Cranbud and Nitori were both lurky. If I'm right about Fnorder, that's three scum on the inactive side. If I'm not, it's probably still 50/50 (five scum plus active-from-start serial killer seems like overkill). Seems like decent reasoning to me.

[Mad Fnorder]

One last scan through, and as usual, nothing concrete from me. Excal still seems kinda funny, and Carth's point should be taken to its logical conclusion- with three ghosts, there not being a Scum Godfather with the traditional evasion therein would be really rather strange.

My personal suspicion list goes something like Excal>Soppy=Carthrat>Strago>Kilga=Shale=VSM, with the caveat that this is the PERFECT time for a gambit like Shale is running, especially between, say, Shale and Kilga, two of the "cleared people". Especially since their first lynch-tipoff is, according to them, a ghost- I only look suspicious by ABSENCE, not because they are bluffing about their abilities. If I don't flip Ghost as well... Well, there you go.

If you're wondering about the change in tone, I apologize again to everyone for my frustration. I hear what has been saying about game methods, but it's not for lack of trying. Guess that's why I spectate more.

[Strago]

Indeed, Carth. I posed the question to everyone else to see if he did indeed have more than one shot of Roleblock. After all, there's been no way thus far to actually determine whether or not his claim of the one-shot Cop/Doc roles was true. Then again, the more I think about it, the less likely it seems like he was lying; the flavor of the roleblock certainly didn't seem like it was a dungeon dimension creature.

Agreed on Corwin. As to the suggestion of just hurrying up and lynching Fnorder, I guess I was partly thinking back to the Ephraim lynch in FFT, and partly just wondering whether we shouldn't keep from tipping the scum off to our thought processes. Then again, at this point it's a better idea to share info, since the clock is ticking. It was probably a dumb suggestion.

Nevertheless, I will go ahead and toss out a Fnorder vote. With the new info from Shale it just really seems likely that he's a baddie.

##VOTE: Fnorder

Okay, maybe it's a bad idea to try and figure out the game's balance of roles as much as I do, but if we've got two cops, a rolecop and a watcher... well, suddenly it doesn't seem so strange to me that VSM's doublevoting role might indeed sit in the hands of scum. If Shale's claim is real, than VSM and Tai are the only people on yesterday's Otter train who can possibly be scum, and even though it only took six to lynch him... well, it seems like one ought to be scum, yes? I guess I'll look back over VSM and Tai more closely, now. Sopko, as well, since Excal is now apparently Town and he's the one who I suspect most out of the Excal voters. for his generally lurky and unhelpful play.

[Excal]

Yeah...  I am beginning to wonder when the catch is going to kick in.  Two Cops, Tracker, Rolecop, Jack of all Trades and double-voting governor vs. Rolecop and Framer?  Granted, the framer would be even more useful with two cops in the mix.  But...  there's not only been no sign of a doc, but there's apparently doc busting going around too. 

That said, all of that is only true if Shale, Kilga, and VSM are telling the truth.  The fact that noone's bothered to contradict Kilga only using his roleblocking once (and I'm not about to), suggests he's probably telling the truth.  Shale, I'm inclined to believe right now, which does leave VSM in a bit of a shaky position in terms of telling truth.

[Shale]

VSM...well, I still see the end of Day 2 as fairly decisive there. If he's scum, why would his pals leave hammering the day to a townie when they could get the credit themselves, not to mention choose which scumbag to sacrifice?

[Veryslightlymad]

I could stop our lynch! I just don't see where that would ever be useful.

[Excal]

That's...  yeah.  That's really the biggest strike against anything being planned by scum on Day 2, I suppose.  If something was planned, why did Cranbud do nothing?  It could be the other scum had their votes tied up, or didn't want to look conspicuous for some reason.  But...  then we get back to Cranbud who was both there and...  yeah.

I suspect it may just be ID syndrome, where those double votes get bigger and more worrying as their effective power grows.  Ugh, just, something feels off about these power roles, and they're all supported by something which looks pretty good.

Edit: Yeah...  don't bother, VSM.  No real point at present.