Author Topic: Discworld Mafia is go!  (Read 110976 times)

Strago

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #650 on: January 11, 2008, 04:31:37 AM »
... huh. I honestly don't know, Soppy. Speaking of bad mistakes to make right about now. My head appears to be massively not in the game right tonight, for some reason. Sigh.

Carth: I think that what Fnorder's suggesting the scum might have is actually the opposite of a Framer. Well, almost. At any rate, it's different.

And.... okay. Now Excal's pretty much definitely confirmed, apart from some sort of incredibly amazing Xanatos Gambit. That's cool, at least.

Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #651 on: January 11, 2008, 04:35:08 AM »
It... doesn't seem like that complicated a gambit. Hypothetical:

Excal is Godfather, Sopko is scum.

They know from reveals today that cops hit Excal and bought Godfatherness. Sopko sets himself up to cover potential investigation tomorrow with a roleclaim revealing nothing but info only he can confirm, or that is publically available, and also to appear useful.

Also, I see nothing about this flavor you're referring to, Sopko. Link us?

Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #652 on: January 11, 2008, 04:36:33 AM »
Hell with it. No hint-dropping. I'm claiming now. It'll definately help things out a lot.
(Stuff)
Not very helpful, I'm afraid. But hopefully it'll add to confirming things.

... What's up, Soppy? Looking pretty shaky, there.

Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #653 on: January 11, 2008, 04:39:02 AM »
Quote
Curiously enough, another body was found sprawled in the street nearby, though this one was mangled nearly beyond recognition. It was the presence of a familiar glass eye that eventually led to this second victim's identification: Mister Teatime (pronounced "Teh-ah-tim-eh," as he was always quick to remind people), the one member of Ankh-Morpork's Assassins' Guild so dedicated to his craft as to frighten even his fellow assassins. Since the Guild had long since stopped taking requests for Vimes's inhumation, it seemed likely the slain assassin had been working on his own. Well, they needn't fear this particular loose cannon any longer, that's clear enough.

Nothing about any failed investigation. Her role mentioned that investigation attempts fail against her, but that's just a description of a nonstandard power (it's not even listed on the Wiki).

Plus your claim is as good as investigating you and getting scum. This doesn't make you look good, Soppy.
"Sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology."
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Strago

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #654 on: January 11, 2008, 04:42:08 AM »
Hell with it. No hint-dropping. I'm claiming now. It'll definately help things out a lot.
(Stuff)
Not very helpful, I'm afraid. But hopefully it'll add to confirming things.

... What's up, Soppy? Looking pretty shaky, there.

... not to mention that flavor, then alignment, then role seems... odd, to say the least. Soppy says he's a Rolecop, after all. Yeah, that order of investigation is extremely convenient. Or is in the situation Fnorder is suggesting. Now I know Fnorder's on the block right now, but the situation he's suggesting seems... plausible. Enough so that I'm willing to try and keep this day going a bit longer.

##UNVOTE: Fnorder

Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #655 on: January 11, 2008, 04:42:36 AM »
This would also make Town's third cop, albeit a slow one, but not including Kilga's one shot. I'm sold- on this being bad juju.

Shale, I'm starting to see what you meant the other day, getting angry with my defensiveness. With my head on the block here, I KNOW everything I say will be confirmed as Townie the only way that's sure- with my death, and that whoever bites will be scrutinized tomorrow for the mislynch. It does really put you in a more aggressive position.
Forgot I had one of these, though:
##Vote Hunter Sopko

Hunter Sopko

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #656 on: January 11, 2008, 04:48:28 AM »
Yep. I know exactly how this looks to everyone. I don't care. This is why I said it now. Go ahead and lynch me and confirm me town, then turn on the real scum like a tide, or you could go ahead and listen now and we can get scum now. Either way is good for me, as town wins in the end. This is why I had the first line about it helping. The second line was because my invesigations honestly just didn't amount to much (QuietRain and Corwin).

Fnorder, you're looking desparate. Your foreknowledge of the Cranbud situtation and my not buying your vanilla claim, which has turned out to be accurate, made me vote you yesterday, now you're jumping on me out of convenience. Strago just keeps looking worse as well. Since Fnorder was unvoted, I'm voting now.

##Vote: Fnorder

Carthrat

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #657 on: January 11, 2008, 04:53:17 AM »
...another...cop... what.

Sopko's investigations make the most sense to me, but.. geezus. Excal is definately confirmed town at this point, with two seperate coplikes saying so (unless he's the godfather, in which case he's probably laughing his ass off.) However he has *also claimed himself as a Miller*. The only person who could find anything out about him at all is Shale, at this point.

If Sopko was actually scum, then he wouldn't have needed to fabricate the miller detail because he'd have been able to just off Shale.

If he's townie, of course he wants to give us his full role.

Fnorder is seriously thinking along the same lines I was; that is, there's a plot here based on scum claiming cop and the godfather having already been isolated. However, this would put Shale, Excal, Kilga and Soppy in my sights. I would note that I have no idea how many scum are remaining; it's either 2 or 3.

Shale: Kilga took a poke at him with his oneshot cop power and he turned out to be town. Great. Shale is also claiming cop and has made two investigations of note to us; one on Excal (confirming him as town) and one on Fnorder (confirming him as a ghost.) I find his choice of who to investigate suspicious, as I've said before. Naturally, I want him to stay alive to make more investigations, which tell as much about him as they will about anyone else.

Kilga: I trusted Kilga an awful lot earlier, but I'm not so sure right now. It's mainly due to the oneshot doc claim. I'm going to assume that if we have one, the *real* doc is not going to want to roleclaim at this point... or should he? Have any of HIS doc attempts been on the right person and failed anyway? Confirming this would do something to ease Kilga's credibility. I will admit that Kilga still looks mostly alright to me, as if he was scum, he would have had to either preserve his roleblockerness (unlikely), or have some other role and be partnered with strago (unlikely, and extremely ballsy.) Also, often, godfather immunities go DOWN if the godfather got sent on a kill. If there are only *two* scum, and the godfather IS one of Shale and Excal, then strago would have had to make the kill that night. (This is getting pretty full of holes, even as I type it. I kind of think that Kilgas actual flip would tell us a lot- but I don't actually think he's scum.

Soppy: Hasn't played much, has come out with probably the most inverifiable role ever. Between him and Shale has cleared Excal for the moment. Soppy is noted for not appearing throughout the game, and I think that on face value, his roleclaim appears the most suspicious by itself. Do other people have thoughts on that?

Excal: Is looking good indeed with two cops on his side. But I am continually slightly edgy of him and Kilga for the VSM vote pattern. I keep backflipping and hovering over this.

We need to go back, check what our cops have said, and see if their actions match up with their findings at the time.

##Unvote: Fnorder. It's not that I'm not still suspicious; it's that I want to go over things and come back later, and seeing as I'm going to be away for an hour or two, I don't want a vote laid down at this volatile period.

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Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #658 on: January 11, 2008, 04:54:24 AM »
Okay. One thing and one thing only stands out as a possible townie tell here.

[quoteDay 2- Excal (Duck Man)[/quote]

We didn't know that (I don't think we did. I can't recall Excal claiming, at least). If Excal confirms this and then Sopko flips scum and is not some sort of rolecop (which, if he's scum, he more than likely isn't), Excal fries. That's a horribly risky scum gambit.
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Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #659 on: January 11, 2008, 05:04:54 AM »
NOTE- I am not trying to put all my eggs in the Excal basket. It's just the theory that's grooving in my head at this point.

Where did Excal claim Miller, anyone? And wouldn't that make things really skewed if he was hit as town TWICE?

As for the risk, Shale? Excal's only at risk if he confirms right now.

If Excal confims, and Sopko lives, nothing happens
If Excal denies, and Sopko lives, nothing happens.
If Excal confirms, and Sopko flips non investigative scum, Excal still has plenty of outs-
All he has to do is say Scum had the info from the Lost Cranbud Investigation.
We're forgetting we only have scum's word on who they investigated, and where that info got.

Tangentially, there's no reason to think Scum might not have multiple investigators. This game has them up the friggin wazoo.

Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #660 on: January 11, 2008, 05:06:05 AM »
Post started with one thrust and drifted. At least I'm consistent with my forgetting to edit. Strike the "If he claims now" part.

Sierra

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #661 on: January 11, 2008, 05:07:10 AM »
Update!

Hunter Sopko (1): Mad Fnorder
Mad Fnorder (3): Excal, Carthrat, Strago, Kilgamayan, Hunter Sopko

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

There are 41.5 hours until the deadline.

And yes, you will be informed when it's LYLO.

Excal

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #662 on: January 11, 2008, 05:21:55 AM »
Well, I was wondering why Sopko was so certain of my innocence.  Now I know...

That said, everything that's been said about me is truth.  I am Duck Man, I am Town, and I do spend my nights sitting in my cardboard palace.  This is the first time I've said anything about my role, and given how we have investigative roles popping out of nowhere, I'm not going to say more just yet.  But, what Shale, Yakko, and Sopko have said is truth.

That said...  three cops seems something akin to madness.  Heck, two rolecops was enough to hang Cranbud, so three cops makes me think one of them needs to be scum.

And...  this really makes me curious about Shale.  Sopko, for all that his comes later, and only has a read on me, has information that scum wouldn't have.  He knows my name.  Shale, on the other hand, only tells us one thing that scum wouldn't already know.  That Fnorder is a Ghost.  But even then, that could just be a bluff.  Using something he saw earlier as an excuse to be wrong if Fnorder pops town.

ANother thing to keep in mind.  Yakumo was limited, as is Sopko.  Shale claims no such restriction, which makes me curious.  Two full cops when there wasn't a full role cop?  Again, this looks odd, feels off...

Sopko's being questioned because he's third.  Because he could pull off a false claim, and maybe get away with it.  Though, it seems an insanely risky stunt for scum to pull.  Shale, who looks more suspicious to me, claimed second, when we shouldn't have expected another cop to come stumbling along.  I'd say there's no way a second cop could preempt a third, true, cop.  Except there is one way.  Cranbud could have looked at Sopko, and seen him for what he was.  Heck, he even mentioned Hex in his claim.

That said...  this is all bloody speculation.   I could continue with the mystery of Cranbud to show why Sopko could be the scum, and use that to know how he knows my name.  The question is less what does this mean, and more what do we do.  And for that, I'm not yet ready to answer.

EDIT FOR FNORDER: First off...  yeah.  You thought of the same thing I did regarding Cranbud and possibly getting names.  Like I said, bloody vicious circle, that.  As for the second.  Sopko's the one what claimed miller, not me.

Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #663 on: January 11, 2008, 05:27:21 AM »
Hm. That's true, we don't have evidence that Cranbud's rolecoppery didn't return names as well as roles. Good call there.

Anyway, I've been up since 5 AM today, and so am turning in for the night. I hope I'll still be alive tomorrow morning, but in case I'm not...

Mad Fnorder: Acting somewhat less suspicious now, but not greatly so. Still has a lurker history combined with everything that was thrown at him yesterday. Claims a power role identical to that of a confirmed townie (namely, Ghost, told he was a vanilla townie).

Sopko: Unverifiable roleclaim that includes confirmation that if I investigated him I'd get scum. Has been nonpresent most of the game, in contrast to his typical aggressive town play, and pretty waffly to boot (less so in the past few minutes, of course). Competing with Fnorder for top billing on the suspicion list.

Tai: Somewhat inactive, but contentful when he posts. Has seemed very confident that Fnorder will flip town, but hasn't defended that viewpoint much. "Sacrifice game" comment on the first page of the day is also somewhat disturbing, since it's a very large stretch given how we caught our scum so far.

Excal: Has always proven somewhat hard for me to read; see Wheel of Time (argh), and I recall being suspicious of him in FFT before his death. Beyond my investigation result I haven't seen any big town tell from him, so I'd still consider godfather. Definitely not my first choice for lynching, though.

Rat: Playing more aggressive than usual, as I said before. I'd like you to explain what about my choice of targets is "suspicious" - seeing as you voted for two of them yourself, you can't have found them that clean.

Strago: Nonresponse to Cranbud's statement is being overblown, I think. Once you've got somebody confirmed as evil, I'm not going to fault a player for keeping a lid on information that they were looking for. Still don't have any kind of solid town read on him.

Kilga: Has made a claim that's awfully self-limiting if he really is the scum roleblocker. Had a logical target for his investigation (I was scummy at first, I freely admit this).

VSM: I've said it before; end of Day 2 logically clears him to me. It's possible that was a Xanatos gambit, but likely? I really don't think so. Not to say I wouldn't revisit him if we get closer to the wire, but (1) we're not there yet; and (2) given the nonpresence of doctors so far I probably won't be alive when we are.

Edit for Excal: Cranbud mentioning Hex in his claim is likely because Hex was mentioned in his flavor. Stibbons and Hex are deeply linked in the books.  Also, somebody else pointed this out, but we have no proof of Vimes' sanity. I'm certain of mine. Not to mention the insane amount of anti-investigation roles flying around - three ghosts, a framer, probably a godfather, possibly a miller (if not Sopko, I wouldn't be surprised if someone is)? That's a lot to counterbalance a single alignment cop.
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Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #664 on: January 11, 2008, 05:38:49 AM »
Now I see what Carth was trying to say earlier, it was just phrased odd. However, offing Shale potentially throws suspicion, or at least heavy attention, back on the only potential remaining cop. Scum trading 1-1 from here out still doesn't save them.

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #665 on: January 11, 2008, 05:45:15 AM »
Shale, my main reason for backing off slightly in this game was BECAUSE I was a cop and didn't want to tip my hand. I had definately dropped enough hints for clearing Excal when/if I was lynched, but otherwise my investigations weren't very helpful as I chose people to investigate that scum wanted dead. I have been a lot more waffly, but different games, different results.

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #666 on: January 11, 2008, 05:45:47 AM »
I can't defend why I think Fnorder will flip town, other than my gut still telling me he's town and my horribly bad game-metagaming  (to distinguish from player-metagaming) that makes me feel as if SK + two town is more likely than SK + scum + town for the ghost spread.

Also, I... three cops, plus a one-shot use of a cop ability? ...No words. Even with the restrictions, this is... wow. We likely have a liar somewhere in here... lemme reread, this is confusing the hell out of me.

Carthrat

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #667 on: January 11, 2008, 05:49:04 AM »
Well, what I mean is that you were picking targets that town was universally deeming to be suspicious in general; I feel it's better for the cop to target people who give the ever-so-common 'null read'. Targeting people who are likely to die anyway seems something of a waste, especially if they're already lurking and contributing little. Sure, you might *save* one- but only at the cost of roleclaiming yourself. And you have to ask; if someone appears that scummy and is constantly lurking, how badly do we want to save them, anyway?

It's not that I don't get why they'd feel like a good target to investigate, what with already being under suspicion, but I felt there were better choices out there, especially as late game draws near and a lot of people with clean records and 'null reads' are still running around.
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Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #668 on: January 11, 2008, 05:53:24 AM »
Headed to bed- Last thought to hurt Tai's brain more. Three cops, plus one shot, PLUS a Watcher. Vimes, Weatherwax, Yakko, Kilga's one shot, and Ridicully. I suppose Cranbud's presence counts too.

As for the ghost issue... I was just thinking, setup wise-  if there's one, and it's the SK, there have to be more, otherwise the benefit to the SK (An otherwise very difficult to hide position) was next to nil. We knew night one there was an SK, even though Scum whacked him, and the hunt would have been on for him. The other ghosts are the trees for the SK to hide in, especially with a Scum cop looking for him too.

Excal

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #669 on: January 11, 2008, 06:00:09 AM »
Did we Fnorder?  The Vigilante, a fairly common position, doesn't seem to have surfaced in this game.  Which suggests that the SK might have hidden in that guise for a while.

Veryslightlymad

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #670 on: January 11, 2008, 06:03:19 AM »
The three cop thing doesn't bother me, because it seems like we have only a limited doctor who STILL GOT DOCBUSTERED WHAT THE FUCK.

Veryslightlymad

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #671 on: January 11, 2008, 06:03:44 AM »
I'm speaking of the IDEA of having three cops. The reveal that we might is giving me lots of headaches.

Kilgamayan

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #672 on: January 11, 2008, 06:09:27 AM »
God damn.

Honestly, the only thing Sopko coming out tells me is that he and Excal are tied together. (Not that this is necessarily a bad thing, but at the moment it's not a terribly helpful thing.) My opinions of Fnorder and Strago haven't changed much, I'm pretty much operating under the assumption that VSM, Rat and Tai are all town, Excal and Sopko are on the same side (whatever side that is) and Shale is a complete wild card.

I need to go to bed soon. Thank God for 40-odd hours still left in this day.

Fnorder: How do you know scum 1-1ing the rest of the way doesn't save them?


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Kilgamayan

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #673 on: January 11, 2008, 06:11:25 AM »
Or I guess Sopko could be town and Excal could be Godfather.

Bleh.


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Carthrat

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #674 on: January 11, 2008, 10:39:18 AM »
Quote
If you are a cop, I believe you have an obligation to follow up your investigative reports. You don't need to do this by claiming, but you do need to analyze the ones you have inspected and really check to see if they're scummy or townish, and to make sure your results exist in the same day. In this way, when you finally claim, you do have a leg to stand on and we can be relatively sure that, at least, if it's a fabriciation, it's a damned good one. And generally speaking, time will bear it out.

Yes, we're all worried about millers and framers and such. I feel that if you have such an investigation, you're obliged to follow it up for the time being and let the town play devil's advocate. In the event that it's shown your investigation came up wrong, congrats- you know there's something that can fool you. But until then...

Sopko

Day 1- QuietRain (I was the investigation that failed on the Day 2 flavor)
Day 2- Excal (Duck Man)
Day 3- Excal (Townie)
Day 4- Corwin (Rincewind)

Sopko has made other mistakes this game, including getting Smodge and Corwin mixed up early during day 2. I'd like to know why he decided to investigate Excal at this juncture. He has at one point been suspicious of Shale's defence, indicating that if shale flips scum or vice versa, it apparently looks bad for the other. Also during day 2: Sopko claimed that Bobbin's defence of VSM would be 'rather blatant if it's scum vs. scum'. I don't see Sopko trying to hit VSM after Bobbin's flip, correct me if I'm wrong.

He's pretty neutral towards Excal on day 3. This is decent play, because you're obviously waiting for the secondary results on your present suspect if you're a slowcop. He'd also understandably be eager for information at this point, so he hammers day 3 a bit earlier than is possibly necessary.

DOES defend Excal on day 4. Pretty much says the claims against him are stupid and that Excal has been around when he's been around.

Shale

Day 1: Excal - Town.
Day 2: Cranbud - Scum
Day 3: Otter - Town
Day 4: Fnorder - Ghost

Tiny Little Detail that Shale has going for him-
Quote
...well if that ain't the biggest mixed bag I've ever seen. On the one hand...<censored>. We lost a cop before he'd even gotten any results to breadcrumb. Yech.
@ http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2072#msg2072.

Lost *a* cop, as opposed to *the* cop. (Had breadcrumb in the same sentences?!) Shale hasn't said anything about breadcrumbing his role, but the general assumption is that there's only going to be one cop, or so I think. This does give him a bit more credibility. He did question Excal but not really in an aggressive tone. He also makes sure to point out that Excal looks somewhat town on the basis of, mainly, not giving any tells at all. Basically, on day 2, he's matching up with what he's said.

Not quite so in day 3. Yes, he makes a couple of shots at Cranbud. No, he's not terribly persuasive about it, and he waited until Kilga made an argument before voting; why didn't he go over Cranbud's posts more thoroughly himself, and try to figure out if he had made any slips?

Continues to defend Excal throughout day 4 and beyond. Makes a pretty weak defence of Otter as well, as compared to the one on Excal..

Kilga

Day 2: Shale- Town

Kilga has come under some attack since day 2, with verifiable scum amongst them (that being Cranbud). Cranbud kept at it on day 3, too, and I feel this was before reasonable expectation of Cranbud getting lynched. His logic seems extremely weak; I'm prepared to be somewhat kind to Kilga on this basis. However, in day 3, Shale DOES come under fire, and despite this investigation, I can't see Kilga mention him anywhere at all. I would've thought he'd like to do this. In regard to he's cop claim in specific, there's not so much to say; he revealed that Shale was pro-town and that's it; a solid defence, if you presume to trust Kilga. Which I did.

<->

So there go the three cops. And, from my perspective, they *all* look alright, but Sopko and Shale have both made some rather telling mistakes, and Kilga's role is just not enough to drag out much information from. I'm going to make a leap of faith here and not try to lynch any of these people today, despite really thinking that scum have had a big opening to jump in, here.

I am constantly interested on what people have to say on Shale and Excal right now. With two investigations on Excal and one on Shale, all coming up town, they both look pretty sweet. Couple thoughts, though.

-There are still thoughts going on about the me/Kilga/Excal vote train on VSM. Now... if VSM is actually scum (and he totally could be), suspicion for us on these grounds would drop off entirely. If he's town, though, it shoots up quite strongly. The doublevoting governor thing is a pretty dangerous fakeclaim for *scum* to make in case he gets called on it, because town, generally, does Not Like Losing their lynch.

-Since there are two claims for Excal being town, if I had to pick one of us three to lynch, I'd pick Kilga, which kind of bites because I think he's been playing pretty well so far. But I don't want to argue against multiple investigations (i.e. accusing Excal of being godfather) unless I'm either presented with really compelling evidence, or it's Lylo and I'm presented with reasonable compelling evidence.

I will vote.. tomorrow. I want other people to check if I've missed anything, further the case on Fnorder if they can (I don't know how much information his lynch would give us compared to a cop, right now, and information is becoming a critical concern. Plus, he's become more active as of late. This is slightly more on the towntell side of things than scum, IMHO.)
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