Discworld Mafia is go!

[Carthrat]

Oh. I almost forgot to ask some questions.

The real question is, to each of the cops: I've pointed out certain errors I think you've made.

Soppy: Why didn't you persue VSM after your claim earlier in day 2, given how you called the defence earlier?

Shale: Why didn't you attack Cranbud after confirmining him as scum, and why was your defence of Otter so wussy?

[Shale]

My defense of Otter was wussy because I suspected him to be Godfather. I didn't attack Cranbud wholeheartedly because I didn't know I was sane yet, and because I didn't want to get pegged as cop for leaping on somebody with both feet out of nowhere (I had only suspected Cranbud mildly on Day 2) when I didn't have to in order for him to get the noose.

Also, if you want breadcrumbing, take a look at my big post from day 4. Notice who I specifically mention "Town reads" on - Excal and Otter. With Otter, when talking about my reluctance to trust that read, I mentioned that I'd gotten the wrong read on him before - a reference to the Wheel of Time game where I was a cop and he was Godfather.

[Shale]

Oh, as an addendum - I hadn't given up suspicion of Excal or Otter yesterday, but when I made that post, Excal was a lynch target and Otter wasn't. Hence, unequivocal defense of Excal, qualified one of Otter.

[Carthrat]

Eh, if Otter was godfather, he was playing it pretty badly. Of all the scum, Godfather wants to have the best record so that when someone investigates him as town, it really does clear him. I must admit I find your breadcrumbing fairly compelling.

[Hunter Sopko]

The Cranbud defense of VSM, however, makes me look at Cranbud more than VSM. Don't see how this particularly damns VSM. If it's a scum defense of scum, it's a rather blatant one.

You're right and wrong in your view, Rat. I did consider VSM for a short while, until his actions that pretty much secured him as a townie in most of our eyes, which fell roughly at the end of Day 2.

That part of my post there directed attention to Cranbud above all, and specifically mentions that it doesn't particularly damn VSM. The logic behind the last part of the sentence is that if it was a case of scum defending scum, it was way too blatant and a pretty bad move all around. It doesn't imply that is what I thought it was, just what it would be if that turned out to be the case. Later on, VSM kind of exonerates himself, so I let the case drop.

I didn't particularly think VSM was scum ANYWAY, which is what made me consider Cranbud's statement strange in the first place.

[Taishyr]

Just noting this while I read through backlog on my compilation of a few different things:

As Alex once pointed out, one can breadcrumb whatever you want, be ye scum or town. All it would take for a scum to do so is some forethought. Saying breadcrumbing is compelling is... uh. That is not the point of breadcrumbing, per se. The closest thing breadcrumbing has to anything resembling a point, aside from being a way for cops to leave information behind in the case of Dungeon Dimension monster to the face, is to hint to other roles to protect/divert/other things for you - and hope the scum don't catch on. It's not a proof of anything other than forethought and caution; this is, however, a tactic scum can use equally as effectively, so it doesn't prove anything re: allegiance, as a warning. Caution must be used in this, as in all things.

Now back to reading/drinking 20 cups of tea to try and break this feverish thing I seem to be in.

[Shale]

Eh, if Otter was godfather, he was playing it pretty badly. Of all the scum, Godfather wants to have the best record so that when someone investigates him as town, it really does clear him. I must admit I find your breadcrumbing fairly compelling.

The last time Otter was godfather I pegged him as such on Day 3, without the benefit of an investigation. I admit that some resultant hubris may have played into my suspicion of him on day 4.

[Mad Fnorder]

Fnorder: How do you know scum 1-1ing the rest of the way doesn't save them?

Math. given how many people alive, only 3 scum trading here out forces a final day slugfest. If there's two, it won't even get that far. They need to force more mislynches than that.

[Strago]

Of course it's possible that the scum know we'll assume this and are formulating their current strategy based on our assumption that there's no wai they'd do something as risky as propose a 1-1 swap. Stranger things have happened.

Okay, so. Currently, we've got three investigators. I have a very difficult time believing that they are all telling the truth. Is there... any possible way we can use our lynch to pick apart their claims? That is, is there anybody whose flip is most likely to make an invetigative claim fall apart?

[Shale]

Well, if Excal is non-Godfather scum, both I and Sopko look bad. If Fnorder is anything but a Ghost, on either side, I look bad (and I'd attack El Cid for bastard modding, but that's a separate issue).

[Taishyr]

Strago -> Shale
Excal -> VSM
Taishyr -> Excal
Taishyr -> Kilgamayan -> Taishyr
Excal -> Taishyr
Excal -> Kilgamayan
Shale -> Bobbin Cranbud
Bobbin Cranbud -> Carthrat
Shale -> Carthrat -> Shale
Sopko -> Kilgamayan
Carthrat -> Sopko
Carthrat -> Fnorder
Kilgamayan -> VSM
Excal -> VSM
VSM -> Nitori
Shale -> VSM
Shale -> Sopko
Excal -> VSM
Strago -> Shale -> Strago
Kilgamayan -> Cranbud
Sopko -> Fnorder
Kilgamayan -> Sopko -> Kilgamayan
Kilgamayan -> Shale -> Kilgamayan
Carthrat -> VSM
Sopko -> Carthrat
Carthrat -> Taishyr -> Carthrat
Carthrat -> VSM
Taishyr -> Strago -> Taishyr
**Taishyr -> Fnorder -> Taishyr
**Taishyr -> Shale -> Taishyr
**Strago -> Kilgamayan -> Strago
**Kilgamayan -> Shale -> Kilgamayan
**Kilgamayan -> Strago -> Kilgamayan
**Strago -> Carthrat
**Excal -> Fnorder
**Shale -> Excal

Strago: Shale, Taishyr, Kilgamayan, Carthrat
Shale: Strago, Carthrat, BC, Kilgamayan, Fnorder, Excal, *Taishyr, --Cranbud--
Excal: VSM, Taishyr, Kilgamayan, Fnorder, Shale
Taishyr: Excal, Kilgamayan, Strago, Fnorder*, Carthrat, Shale*
Kilgamayan: Taishyr, Excal, Sopko, VSM, --Cranbud--, Shale, Fnorder
VSM: Excal, Kilgamayan, --Nitori--, Carthrat
Carthrat: Shale, Sopko, Taishyr, VSM, Fnorder, Strago, --Cranbud--
Sopko: Carthrat, Kilgamayan, Fnorder, Shale
Fnorder: Shale, Excal, *Taishyr, Carthrat, Sopko, Kilgamayan

SCUM Nitori: VSM
SCUM Bobbin Cranbud: Shale, Carthrat

* I decided to do this near the beginning of day 5. I have thus noted all links I made during today, for your reference, since I knew I was planning this.
** Links made this game day.
-- To distinguish links to scum. This does not denote anything bad, before someone jumps to conclusions.

I no doubt missed parts of this; if in a reread of the thread you guys catch anything I missed, please point it out.

"But this is just a bunch of arrows and names with no explanation! What the hell, Tai? We can't point anything out if you don't tell us what the hell you're talking about!"

Ah, right, the explanation. Well. This is a basic test to check for a common slip scum make. You see, they are, in most situations, able to chat with each other outside of the thread... so this checks to see who has addressed who out of the people still alive, and thus is less likely to be communicating with said person outside the thread - and in conclusion, being scum (...or masons, but if we have those, too, my brain will explode. Still, a cautionary note, that). I excluded attacks on people from this (scum -yelling- at scum feels to be a more dangerous ploy

Foolproof? Hardly. Scum could quite easily fake conversation between each other to make them look better; however, I hope to have the element of surprise by posting this without hinting at what I was looking at. Naturally, anyBut it might help us figure out what pairings are more likely, and since I actively attempted to include doubles (though not back-and-forth conversations - Kilga -> VSM -> Kilga is a solid example of that, since they went on for a while).

Why not include people who are dead? Well, I did check to see who Bobbin Cranbud and Nitori addressed directly in game. However, for anyone else... well, they're town/SK. Thus, not communicating with anyone else outside of the thread (I would hope). Thus, irrelevant for the purposes of this ANYWAY.

And no, there will be no updates to this. Why? Well, think about it: scum could then purposefully converse like this in topic and hide their tracks, if this does not obscure them a bit anyway.

And as for what I think of the results? Well, I'm... ...yeah, I'm not seeing VSM as anything but town currently. Only person to directly address Nitori with anything that wasn't a vote on him. Bobbin Cranbud helps out Shale and Carthrat a bit, but I'm not sure entirely what I think, there. As for the rest, well... I suppose where this will help the most is when we fell another scum; we can reference this and see precisely who he communed with before I pounded this out, hope it helps us find the rest. Worth keeping in mind, I believe.


Going back for one more quick reread to finish something else.

[Strago]

Tai: Wow. That is... a lot of information. Uh.

Well, if Excal is non-Godfather scum, both I and Sopko look bad. If Fnorder is anything but a Ghost, on either side, I look bad (and I'd attack El Cid for bastard modding, but that's a separate issue).

Hmm. Yes, that's true. Though I think I might still be wary of Soppy even if Excal was a Godfather. Soppy's claim strikes me as something almost designed for that eventuality, if it is indeed fake as I still rather suspect. And... now that I look at Tai's breakdown, Excal <--> Sopko seems to be noticeably absent.

[Carthrat]

Naturally, anyBut

Call me pedantic, but what were you going to say?

Aside from that, I dunno how much this helps us. I mean, I was thinking, "Ok, maybe Excal really is the godfather, and Soppy is cashing in on a copclaim with an odd role and deniability if Excal flips," and sure, they don't directly address each other. But I don't directly address Excal either, according to the logic, so yeah. At best you could use this evidence as collateral to an argument you already have.

I understand the system at least. Is anyone else having better thoughts about it than me?

[Carthrat]

And Strago has pretty much the same thoughts I do. Have I ever told you all how much better I feel about someone if they mirror what I'm saying? Now I have.

[Mad Fnorder]

Flipping me shows Shale's investigativeness, but not his alignment.
Flipping Excal loses us no cops, and proves two cops investigativeness independently, but no alignments.
Flipping Shale proves his alignment, proves Kilga's one shot-coppiness, but only gets us one independent result, and loses a cop.
Flipping Sopko proves his alignment, gets us one independent result, and loses a cop.
Any problems with these people are seeing?

[Carthrat]

Flipping Fnorder gives us the least information, I'll grant. That he seems the scummiest is of import, though.

We may yet lose cops to nightkills. In fact, barring shenanigans, they could kill both shale and sopko before any more useful information could be provided. For better or worse, we have to assume that what we see now is all we're going to get. Who ELSE do we lose if we kill a cop? That's down to the NK...

[Taishyr]

Uh. Shit, I think that was a classic Tai "Attention Span Problem" moment, since I typed that up as the way to explain it came to me.
I think I was going to start the sentence before it with "Naturally, any scum could also..." but ended up using "Scum could quite easily..."

And yeah, it's a lot of information. I would've had it done sooner, but not feeling well right now.

And yes, it will likely see its main use in providing backup for arguments. It is not a silver bullet to solve the problem. The only time we get those is when a scum surrenders and admits his role. See Otter in the other game. Anything else has its flaws; this is in that it is mainly something to try and catch any scum who aren't even aware that this mistake is being made. If we catch scum today, this can quite possibly help us figure out the partners. But it cannot find them for us directly. Still, it feels like it should be useful in the days to come. If, say, VSM comes up scum, does it clear Carthrat, Strago or Excal? No. Does it implicate Shale, Kilgamayan, or anyone else not noted? No. But it can be used as another piece of evidence, and I hope it proves useful in that regard.

As for your question, Strago, give me a minute to think on it.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Mad Fnorder. And there is one thing that I'd like to note on Fnorder's list: it might push on Shale's alignment, since if you don't flip Ghost... yeah.

[Strago]

And Strago has pretty much the same thoughts I do. Have I ever told you all how much better I feel about someone if they mirror what I'm saying? Now I have.

Best Friends Forever!

Fnorder's brief analysis does seem to make sense, with the caveats mentioned by Carth and Tai also being accurate. Hrmm. My gut says lynch Excal, here, honestly. But I dunno.

[Taishyr]

My gut's leaning away from Excal, in all honesty. What happens if he really is town? Then we... learn what? We learn that three people seem to be hinting that he is town! ...wait, scum might know that already. It does not reveal anything about alignments unless he flips as scum, and if he does that... well, depending on how he flips as scum, it might say a lot, it might say nothing. Except I'll have egg on my face again from my gut pull on him the past few days.

Give me more time to think, I'm not too sure thus far. This is a grand mess.

[Strago]

Granted, if he flips town we learn next to nothing. If Shale or Soppy flips town, however, we learn nothing and lose an investigator. Granted, in Soppy's case that might not matter since he's Slow anyway. Grrrrah.

[Strago]

Well, we don't so much learn "nothing" as we learn for sure that Excal is either town or a Godfather. Which is where we are now anyway.

[Excal]

Alright...  here's my thoughts on all of this.  First of all, Fnorder's talking a good game on his analysis, but let's take a look at what's likely going to happen.

We're not going to get anything more out of the cops.  They're too useful, and if there's a Docbuster, he hasn't been found yet, and he will want to remain hidden.  So, worrying overmuch about their safety at this point seems, well, silly.  Secondly, let's take a look at what we actually learn if the four people being considered flip.  Going in Fnorder's order even.

Fnorder, shows us one thing.  If Shale is lying or not.  Shale claimed a specific role for Fnorder, and if he flips as something else, then Shale is scum trying to snowjob us.

I...  show you nothing.  Nothing at all.  See, the thing about cop is, it's bloody easy for scum to fake.  If I'm town, then a fake cop would know that just as well as a real cop would.  And if I'm the godfather.  Well, a scumcop would know that, and also know that if I did get bussed, more credibility for him.

If we flip the cops?  We...  still don't actually learn anything.  The only thing either of them have told us that we didn't know before is that I'm town.  Also, there's three roles the scum desperately want gone before a lylo showdown, lynching any of them seems to be giving the scum a free gift that they don't deserve.  These roles are both cops, and someone I won't mention just yet, but isn't in danger of lynching anyways.  Again, assuming both cops are, in fact, town.

This means that six of us are fair game.  And, I suggest that we don't focus on confirming the cops.  They only talk about me, and you've all seen what little good that's done us.  If you are going to lynch for info, then the only one who gives us even the remotest shred of that, is the same person we were going to lynch at the start of the day for looking scummy.

Fnorder.

[Shale]

Excal beats me to the punch.

I'd be willing to bet that every claimed has given accurate results thus far (and not just because I have insider knowledge on my own and Kilga's). It's stupid for scum to blatantly lie in a cop claim so far from endgame. Moreover, deciding which scum-as-cop would be trying to steer us towards which people leads to WIFOM, fast.

Lynch scum. Take cop claims into consideration when you decide who looks scummy, but don't choose who to kill just to see which cop's motives you can kinda maybe guess.

[Taishyr]

If Shale is lynched and shows up town, we know that he told the truth on the Ghost read for Mad Fnorder... which is something better achieved by lynching Mad Fnorder since it doesn't kill a potential town cop. Mrf. Sopko can only be tested in any regard by flipping Excal or himself, but that test proves nothing unless Excal is either not the Duck Man or not Godfather scum. I think he's likely the Duck Dude or whatever unless scum is Sopko/Excal/other, so this... doesn't really help, and the other would have to be Shale if he's not Godfather, so there is no real good way to test Sopko's role other than by lynching him. Which is irritating. His other two targets are, well, we can't prove he investigated them, which is a major pain.

And then there's the possibility that they're -all- town and the scum lie amongst those of us not investigated. Aiya, such a bloody pain. This focus on Excal is really making me start to worry that's the case; even if he is Godfather, the rest of the scum could simply be amongst those not checked and we have no way of proving it. Aiya. So much pain to my head.

EDIT: Ninja'd, see Excal/Shale. Why do I bother with longer posts?

[Mad Fnorder]

Fair enough. I still postulate the existence of a potential Investigation Blocker scum side.

Lesee... Assuming Excal hangs and flips Town/Duck...

Shale could be scum, still, but he would have made a risky gambit on trying to clear Excal without info. Otherwise is probably legit.
Sopko could be exactly what he claims, or could be scum investigator #2, OR could be regular scum getting info from Cranbud back in the day. I keep forgetting that Scum rolecop is better than Town Rolecop, since Scum know each other, and town by association.

Right now I still feel Sopko's flinch was too big to ignore. Though Excal- out of curiousity, if(when) I hang and flip Town, who would you shift your view to?