Author Topic: Discworld Mafia is go!  (Read 115119 times)

Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #700 on: January 11, 2008, 04:25:08 PM »
Two questions for Sopko:

1. This is a bit redundant, but I feel the need to ask directly. Why roleclaim when you have no new information to share? The only thing you pointed out that wasn't already stated was that Excal has a duck on his head. Moreover, since you're a slow cop and will be starting from scratch tonight, you wouldn't get alignment info to share until two days from now, by which point your survival chances as a claimed cop are low.
2. What happened when you tried to investigate QuietRain?
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Excal

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #701 on: January 11, 2008, 04:36:02 PM »
Eh, the nature of scum is that you have info.  Specifically, you know who is scum, and who isn't.  Oddly enough, that's the same info that cops get.  So, given all Shale's said is "Town/Scum" stuff, with the sole exception of you, there's really just the non-Godfather Scum routine.

Now, if you flip town...

If you flip as non-ghost town, then suspicion goes straight to Shale.  That'd be something he called that wasn't true.  And something that wouldn't have an easy explaination either.

If you flip as a ghost townie, then things get a bit trickier.  Sopko looks like a prime target for going after, but I'd give him the next day most likely, in order to see how highly the scum seem to see him as a threat, as well as to see what he manages to learn.  If he's only playing at being a cop, then he'll not only make it to the last day, but he'll also have to dance fairly well to avoid tripping up with the story he's cooked up.

Aside from that, there's Strago, Rat, and Taishyr.

Taishyr feels the most solid of these three because he's been fairly good at managing to be useful in providing views and bits of information.

Rat...  I know he hasn't been hanging back.  But neither can I remember too much of what he's done either.  Like Tai, he's mostly been giving decent analysis from the background.

Finally there's Strago.  He's been talking a good game.  But...  he egged on the suspicion over Cranbud's claim until Otter got lynched over it.  And after that, he kept attention on himself for a while in a WIFOMy little whirlwind of speculation of just what Cranbud was thinking and intending with his claim.  Something that took a lot of time and brain power, but ended up giving us little to nothing in terms of gain.  I think he's the one I'd focus on the most of the three of them.

Strago

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #702 on: January 11, 2008, 05:46:47 PM »
And after that, he kept attention on himself for a while in a WIFOMy little whirlwind of speculation of just what Cranbud was thinking and intending with his claim.  Something that took a lot of time and brain power, but ended up giving us little to nothing in terms of gain.  I think he's the one I'd focus on the most of the three of them.

I did... what? I was responding to Kilga's concerns in a conversation that I acknowledged wasn't particularly constructive, and that took up less than two hours of game time total. I'll be the first to admit that I maybe haven't been the most effective of all the townies over the past day or so, but this seems like some pretty deliberate spin against me right about here.

Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #703 on: January 11, 2008, 06:16:19 PM »
If you flip as a ghost townie, then things get a bit trickier.  Sopko looks like a prime target for going after, but I'd give him the next day most likely, in order to see how highly the scum seem to see him as a threat, as well as to see what he manages to learn.  If he's only playing at being a cop, then he'll not only make it to the last day, but he'll also have to dance fairly well to avoid tripping up with the story he's cooked up.

What happened to "Lynch Scum" as a rule? You basically said, "He looks bad, but we can always lynch him later". Isn't that one of the fundamental bad plays? I beg a veteran to correct me if I'm wrong.

I'm going to stop posting for a while. I'm getting too firmly locked into my Excal/Sopko Scum Duo thinking. If the hammer comes while I'm taking a break, well, my suspicions are on the table in spades.

Excal

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #704 on: January 11, 2008, 09:24:13 PM »
Alright.  To respond to the two points.  Strago first.

I'm running on no sleep at the moment, so what I gave was a general impression that I had.  And, what I recall is that the issue of the truthfulness of Cranbud's remarks had been a constant affair since the end of day three.  Then again, I'm also being asked what I'd look into and use as a seed of argument for tomorrow.

As for lynch scum, always.  You're right, Fnorder.  One should always lynch scum.  That said, I don't have any proof that Sopko's scum.  And on the off chance that he is town, I think that he shouldn't be forced into revealing what he learns tonight on the morrow, so that the scum can't tell ahead of time just how harmless he'll be, or even just axe his target instead of him.  A free ride for a day, sure.  But he had better be able to dance well the day after that, when he will be grilled.  And when he will have something to show that's worth having.

Hunter Sopko

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #705 on: January 11, 2008, 09:58:42 PM »
Two questions for Sopko:

1. This is a bit redundant, but I feel the need to ask directly. Why roleclaim when you have no new information to share? The only thing you pointed out that wasn't already stated was that Excal has a duck on his head. Moreover, since you're a slow cop and will be starting from scratch tonight, you wouldn't get alignment info to share until two days from now, by which point your survival chances as a claimed cop are low.
2. What happened when you tried to investigate QuietRain?


1. I could roleclaim now, with information that may or may not clear me, or wait until someone investigates me and outs me as a miller, in which case it would turn town against me later when they can't afford it. Today was the best for town to find out. If they want to lynch me and find out my alignment, I welcome them. I also wanted to gauge peoples' reactions. Who panicked and who didn't? Who seemed desperate to jump onto my case as a miller? All these things can be evaluated and judged.

2. I was told that QR was perplexing, and reliable data was unavailible. I imagine that it was phrased this way due to my character.

Sierra

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #706 on: January 11, 2008, 10:59:26 PM »
Update!

Hunter Sopko (1): Mad Fnorder
Mad Fnorder (3): Excal, Carthrat, Strago, Kilgamayan, Hunter Sopko

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

There are 24 hours until the deadline.

Strago

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #707 on: January 12, 2008, 02:54:03 AM »
Man, where are we right now? VSM, Shale, Tai? You haven't laid down votes, yet, so I'm wondering about your thoughts. Yours in particular, Shale, since you now seem to be doubting your own investigation, at least in as much as you haven't voted Fnorder yet.

For all that there are plenty of logical arguments against it, I can't shake my bad feelings about Soppy right now. Something about the tone of his recent posts leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Am I alone - apart from Fnorder, whose opinions are clear - in doubting him, at this point?

Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #708 on: January 12, 2008, 03:00:25 AM »
I think we've gotten all the information we can out of this day, at least until we see somebody's flip. For me, it's a choice between Fnorder and Sopko, and I'm really torn on which. Fnorder has done a poor job of excusing his past behavior, has a role that can be easily metagamed into a scum tell, and has committed the cardinal Mafia sin of caring more about his own defense than finding scum. He's behaved decently well today, but with his head on the chopping block, that doesn't invalidate the cardinal-sin part at all.

On the other hand, Sopko has a really weird roleclaim, and one that is highly unlikely to be useful to town if he's telling the truth, since it paints very large target on his back and he needs to survive two nights to get anything useful. The timing of the claim seems calculated to muddy the waters (which it has), and I've suspected him for longer than Fnorder, although I suspected Fnorder more in recent days; Sopko hasn't lurked as badly, but his play very much reminds me of the games where he was scum - tentative and waffly arguing, and a posting style that seems calculated for maximum inoffensiveness. He's the only active player I've ever had as a scumbuddy, and that was a hallmark of his strategy - he was very worried that going too strongly on the attack would be a tipoff. Moreover, while I haven't actually investigated him, he's already promised that if I do investigate him I'll be told that he's scum. So the cop power helps me not at all here.

Aaaaargh. My gut says vote Soppy, but my gut sucks at this game.
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Hunter Sopko

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #709 on: January 12, 2008, 03:10:39 AM »
I don't really mind being voted at this point. My flipping town would allow people to narrow in on things. Honestly, don't be fooled by Fnorder though. You saw how desperately he jumped on me when I made my claim. Desperation is not the mark of a townie.

Strago, if you are town, I wouldn't be allying yourself too closely with Fnorder. When I flip town, if I am voted today or something else happens, it would look pretty bad. Especially if Fnorder turns out scum.


Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #710 on: January 12, 2008, 03:13:25 AM »
Quote
You saw how desperately he jumped on me when I made my claim. Desperation is not the mark of a townie.

And being more concerned with his own defense than with good town play is one of the biggest strikes against Fnorder, if not the single biggest. Doesn't change the fact that I found you suspicious before and think the substance and timing of your claim are both suspect. Plus, like I said, the fact that you've claimed Miller puts you and Fnorder on equal footing, cop-read wise.
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Taishyr

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #711 on: January 12, 2008, 03:21:24 AM »
I have "chosen" a horrible time to get hit with something between a cold and a flu.

Current thoughts...

See Shale regarding Sopko. I cannot think of anything more to add right now in this; the roleclaim's timing, while I can see a sort of logic... it does not feel right.

Fnorder... I... my town vibe still comes from him; looking on it, it feels like he is playing in the defensive style that EvilTom was in day 1, but he is also making attempts to contribute and comment. I am leery of lynching him right now.

Give me time to think on Excal. I am beginning to wonder if my gut is steering me wrong; something lately is ticking a few triggers that were not being ticked bt his posts before.

...I need to finish the Carthrat analysis. Failed to do so. Asdf.

Looking over previous analysis of people/actions as well, seeing if I can get anything.

I do not know how often I'll be posting with this cold/flu thing. Wondering where others are at; anyone else have anything more to say? We need all the wisdom we can get, right now.
So, to put money where my gut is right now:

##Vote: Hunter Sopko. It really is convenient timing and role setup. Name->side->role is bizarre for a town-aligned slow cop. Posts feel a bit off in general; nothing to raise hackles alone but enough to be odd in combination. Need to see if synchronization of tones might be a factor; did anyone else change tones around the beginning of this game day, if maybe a bit later in? Miller information feels irrelevant, unneeded. He was not investigated before, so why bother speaking of it and throwing more potential confusion in? ...That argument is WIFOM but still resonates a bit; he could release it to explain further investigations on him or try to divert attention. Wish I had more than gut and these small pieces of evidence, but am willing to trust my gut on these suspicions at this point, even if not on who I believe is town right now.

Will try to get on later as well, feels like fever isn't breaking. But how does Sopko flip clarify anything? I make this vote purely on judgment of scum/not scum. I don't see where it would actually help, investigation-wise, sadly; all it may do is clarify whether or not Sopko was not lying about seeing a duck man, but duck men may be Godfathers as easily as anyone else, I would hazard.

Strago

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #712 on: January 12, 2008, 03:31:31 AM »
I don't really mind being voted at this point. My flipping town would allow people to narrow in on things. Honestly, don't be fooled by Fnorder though. You saw how desperately he jumped on me when I made my claim. Desperation is not the mark of a townie.

Strago, if you are town, I wouldn't be allying yourself too closely with Fnorder. When I flip town, if I am voted today or something else happens, it would look pretty bad. Especially if Fnorder turns out scum.

It's not that I'm trying to ally myself actively with Fnorder, really. We just happen to feel similarly on this. If he's scum, maybe he has move med subtly towards my conclusions, but he didn't put them in my mind entirely on his own. And as far as looking bad after this lynch... look, I've mentioned before that I know my playing has been pretty crummy over the past day and a half or so. I've got some mental mafia block or something, I guess. At this point I'm more inclined to just be honest about my thought process and deal with whatever gets flung my way later on as it happens. And this just looks like you're trying to scare me into not voting for you. Grah.

Yeah, I'm going to gut with my gut on this one. The timing of the claim, the Millerness, the flavor->alignment->role order of things, your sudden shift in tone... none of it sits right with me, somehow.

##VOTE: Hunter Sopko

Hunter Sopko

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #713 on: January 12, 2008, 03:42:47 AM »
Found me suspicious before is highly suspect, given how you defended me Days 1 and 2. What changed in Day 3 and 4? I'll grant you today, but to say you found me supicious before is a highly nebulous statement. You never came after me, you never investigated me, so what changed on Days 3 and 4?

Perhaps you can chalk it up to another mistake made in the game, this time on a grand scale. I'm damn sure you guys are being led around by your noses, though. Most likely by the Godfather. My guess is either Strago or Taishyr, who were at the focal point of switching the vote from Fnorder to Otter last night (Corwin was too, but he's town and dead). Excal was convinced of Fnorder, but followed Corwin's argument and switched to Otter, which does paint him a bit worse, actually, but I think it's either Strago or Taishyr.

I don't really find much bizarre about Name -> Side -> Role for Slow Cop. But I've never really played with many slow cops and I'm not really married to reading MafiaWiki so I wouldn't really know.

I explained on why I raised the point now. Because it's important to get it out of the way NOW rather than when we're in LYLO and it just so happened a cop investigated me last night. If you think this is bad, imagine the clusterfuck that could have been.

As for my other posts... you see the results I'd gotten from my investigations. Was there anything I could have really gone to town with?

I'm damn sure on Fnorder, and nothing is going to change my vote.

Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #714 on: January 12, 2008, 03:49:57 AM »
Quote
Found me suspicious before is highly suspect, given how you defended me Days 1 and 2. What changed in Day 3 and 4? I'll grant you today, but to say you found me supicious before is a highly nebulous statement. You never came after me, you never investigated me, so what changed on Days 3 and 4?

After the QR thing (which was one incident, not your whole playstyle - in fact, it's pretty counter to how you've played since then), I don't recall defending you much; refer to the end of Day 2, where I put you on my suspect list. Not at the top, granted, but it was there. You didn't do much to change that, and given a lack of more obvious targets I would have focused on you some. But Day 3 was Cranbud Day, and by the time I got going on Day 4 I was more concerned with Fnorder.
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Hunter Sopko

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #715 on: January 12, 2008, 03:56:09 AM »
So on the basis of being mildly supicious of me before, you're forgoing someone who you've had serious suspicions about to go after someone who, in your post before this, you almost seem to be having trouble convincing yourself is scum on the basis of metagame knowledge?

I also find it funny that Strago and Taishyr both voted for me one after the other. Food for thought.

Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #716 on: January 12, 2008, 04:04:29 AM »
Quote
So on the basis of being mildly supicious of me before, you're forgoing someone who you've had serious suspicions about to go after someone who, in your post before this, you almost seem to be having trouble convincing yourself is scum on the basis of metagame knowledge?

On the basis of being mildly suspicious of you before and majorly suspicious of your actions today, and the fact that your Miller claim rendered my investigation on Fnorder a moot point when comparing the two of you.
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Hunter Sopko

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #717 on: January 12, 2008, 04:08:48 AM »
Better the claim comes now than in LYLO, especially if someone had investigated me earlier.

Carthrat

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #718 on: January 12, 2008, 04:12:01 AM »
Shale has said pretty much everything that I find wrong with Sopko as well. I likewise didn't understand his reasoning on claiming to make sure the results of further investigations are around (especially seeing that there's a reasonably good chance of Shale dying, and I would in fact have presumed this to be the next NK.)

The thing with name-side-role is that hardly any townie is going to investigate all the way to role, when they get the information they REALLY want at 'side'. It does seem like an unusual setup to be given.

I still don't particularly want to lynch a cop today if I can help it, however. So I'm going to reiterate my earlier vote.

##Vote: MadFnorder. I'm no longer confident about this call, to be honest. But I was the previous night, and I'm certainly far more shaky on which cop I think is better off killed. Among the noncops, I've got.. Tai (who looks pretty decent), Excal (who has copclaims on his side, and I'm loathe to try and hunt a godfather unless I think all the other scum are gone), Kilga (who I've thought played pretty well in the past), Strago (mystery), and VSM (has a role that is almost suicide for scum to claim if it's a lie due to easy proof).

So I guess at this point, it's more who looks the least good to me than the most scummy. Bleh.
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Sierra

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #719 on: January 12, 2008, 04:26:36 AM »
Update!

Hunter Sopko (3): Mad Fnorder, Taishyr, Strago
Mad Fnorder (4): Excal, Carthrat, Strago, Kilgamayan, Hunter Sopko, Carthrat

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

There are 18.5 hours until the deadline.

Shale

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #720 on: January 12, 2008, 04:27:59 AM »
Also, Soppy, here's what specifically irks me about your roleclaim. If you're sure Fnorder is scum, why did you jump in with a claim you must have known would make him less likely to be lynched? His doom was pretty much certain before you made that post. And unless the game started with numbers weighted heavily against town, one correct lynch leaves us with six town to one scum - a serious advantage, and one where your "Miller gets discovered in LYLO" scenario is vanishingly unlikely, since we'd have to mislynch twice without hitting you and have you escape nightkill twice for you to even be alive in LYLO to be discovered. Now you're sticking your own neck for a noose, and even if that doesn't happen you're splitting the doctor's options (if there is one at all), making either one of us fair game for a nightkill before reporting another investigation. This doesn't look weird to you?
"Sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology."
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Hunter Sopko

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #721 on: January 12, 2008, 04:40:41 AM »
I wanted to be preemptive, because I knew any post-investigation claim to being a miller would result with even more skepticism. I wanted full disclosure. I could have just said I was a slow cop without the miller status, which would have resulted in just as much skepticism based on the amount of cop roles in the game already.

I would have to flip it around as well. If I'm scum, and I know town is being lynched, why would I make that claim in the first place that would make me a prime target?

I realize my mistake now, and I'm not considering you strange for being suspicious of me.

Mad Fnorder

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #722 on: January 12, 2008, 04:57:18 AM »
I'm trying to think who could be the Doc, if there is one. We only have, what, five people who haven't roleclaimed? The odds of there being a doc are decent, but frankly not guranteed- it might go hand in hand with the heavy investigativeness.

Carthrat

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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #723 on: January 12, 2008, 04:58:30 AM »
Unless the doc can back up Kilga's theory of a docbuster existing, I see no reason for them to out themselves at this time.
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Re: Discworld Mafia is go!
« Reply #724 on: January 12, 2008, 05:56:13 AM »
I agree with Rat. Why would you even want to discuss that in town?