Okay. Since I am feeling about ready to puke and pass out at the same time, it's probably time for me to get off the computer, so before I do that, I have an obligation to town to speak up regarding my current suspicions and actually vote, damnit.
VSM I consider all but cleared, and while I will continue to eye him... I do not believe him scum.
Carthrat... mmm, slight town. The main objection I have is the attacks without quotes toward EvilTom day 1. While the attack was sensible enough without them, those still rang a bit odd. This being said, most of your posts have been decently constructive and, while I think I miss some of the logic behind the Kilga lynch today, I would be inclined to say you're town.
Strago, neutral. I'm honestly not sure where to place him; vote record feels iffier than I would like, but his posts have been more solid than not and usually helped point out logical flaws. On the other hand, I'm not sure I know what to think regarding his role and the Bobbin Cranbud thing.
Question: You knew you were bulletproof, but avoided the claim so as to try and draw fire. I understand this. But wouldn't it have been obvious after Corwin died that they knew you had that? To make this more apparent: Corwin, a Vanilla Townie, was killed; you, someone who had not posted your role but instead kept it secret and made comments so as to draw attention, was not targeted. To me, your claim today makes it sound as if you had been hoping that they would target you even last night, but perhaps I read into it? Mrr.
Kilgamayan and Excal, slight scum.
Kilgamayan I've vaguely wondered about most of the game, since he's been triggering just vague things all game, and I've never been satisfied with either when he roleclaimed (though admittedly this was placated some by Strago noting that he was seemingly roleblocked by Kilgamayan) or the attack on VSM Day 2. Yes, getting people to speak is good, but you proceeded to make a fairly decent smokescreen out of the back-and-forth there when a simple vote on him and moving on to other people to spur discussion, I feel, would have sufficed to make your point. At the time, I would've considered you justified in the vote, even if I don't think I would have agreed (I honestly do not remember what I thought of you/VSM/Bobbin Cranbud at that time, but seem to recall leaning in VSM's favor even then).
A question: why did you roleclaim when you did, and not wait until Shale was in danger? You could have just made the observation that a docbuster was likely - why reveal to do so?
Excal... well. I've been thinking Excal was town for a fair large bit of the game, so what's changed? Pretty much... his last two posts of day 4.
Eh, the nature of scum is that you have info. Specifically, you know who is scum, and who isn't. Oddly enough, that's the same info that cops get. So, given all Shale's said is "Town/Scum" stuff, with the sole exception of you, there's really just the non-Godfather Scum routine.
Now, if you flip town...
If you flip as non-ghost town, then suspicion goes straight to Shale. That'd be something he called that wasn't true. And something that wouldn't have an easy explaination either.
If you flip as a ghost townie, then things get a bit trickier. Sopko looks like a prime target for going after, but I'd give him the next day most likely, in order to see how highly the scum seem to see him as a threat, as well as to see what he manages to learn. If he's only playing at being a cop, then he'll not only make it to the last day, but he'll also have to dance fairly well to avoid tripping up with the story he's cooked up.
Aside from that, there's Strago, Rat, and Taishyr.
Taishyr feels the most solid of these three because he's been fairly good at managing to be useful in providing views and bits of information.
Rat... I know he hasn't been hanging back. But neither can I remember too much of what he's done either. Like Tai, he's mostly been giving decent analysis from the background.
Finally there's Strago. He's been talking a good game. But... he egged on the suspicion over Cranbud's claim until Otter got lynched over it. And after that, he kept attention on himself for a while in a WIFOMy little whirlwind of speculation of just what Cranbud was thinking and intending with his claim. Something that took a lot of time and brain power, but ended up giving us little to nothing in terms of gain. I think he's the one I'd focus on the most of the three of them.
Alright. To respond to the two points. Strago first.
I'm running on no sleep at the moment, so what I gave was a general impression that I had. And, what I recall is that the issue of the truthfulness of Cranbud's remarks had been a constant affair since the end of day three. Then again, I'm also being asked what I'd look into and use as a seed of argument for tomorrow.
As for lynch scum, always. You're right, Fnorder. One should always lynch scum. That said, I don't have any proof that Sopko's scum. And on the off chance that he is town, I think that he shouldn't be forced into revealing what he learns tonight on the morrow, so that the scum can't tell ahead of time just how harmless he'll be, or even just axe his target instead of him. A free ride for a day, sure. But he had better be able to dance well the day after that, when he will be grilled. And when he will have something to show that's worth having.
Firstly, I find myself in agreement with Strago that the commentary against him in the first post seems rather strongly put. While I find the actions bizarre as well, I'm not sure - especially with the roleclaim to explain it - that it's really such a negative tell against him, since until Corwin died (as I pointed out in my question to him), there really wasn't much to say that he was or was not investigated.
Secondly, there's just something about both posts that makes me feel like he knows Sopko will survive to the last day, which in turn makes me twitchy about both of them, but the problem here lies more with Excal. Still, this doesn't fully cancel out my town feel before this...
Question: Can you at least give some explanation as to why these posts seem to state confidently that he will survive for two days + why you're so sure he will have something worth saying?
Sopko, moderate scum read. I'm not content with the timing of his roleclaim, the ability of the roleclaim, or the choice to reveal his target today for reasons previously stated. Admittedly, if he is Town I'd like him to be able to clear me, but by the pattern thus far if he is Town he's likely to die tonight... mrrrr.
Okay. While I will look bad if he does turn out Town (oh, look at who lead the lynch against the person investigating him), I don't think he will; my main read is him as scum, and this isn't really changing at all. I'm not content with his posts in his defense. In addition...
I don't really mind being voted at this point. My flipping town would allow people to narrow in on things. Honestly, don't be fooled by Fnorder though. You saw how desperately he jumped on me when I made my claim. Desperation is not the mark of a townie.
Strago, if you are town, I wouldn't be allying yourself too closely with Fnorder. When I flip town, if I am voted today or something else happens, it would look pretty bad. Especially if Fnorder turns out scum.
This post's second half makes me really goddamn twitchy. It's just this... almost... It makes my stomach twitch violently. It makes me think Sopko wanted the kill on Fnorder to go through, and was foreshadowing against Strago as well. It doesn't sit right with me at all. So, as loath as I am to land the first vote - and on a claimed slow cop investigating me, no less - I can do nothing but this, I find.
##Vote: Hunter Sopko
